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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1250 on: May 29, 2020, 12:13:14 PM »
My assumptions: 1 km x 1000 km x 5 m/s of air, 1 kJ/ (kg * °C), 1.2 kg/m3, 10°C, 10 g/m3 of water vapor, 2.3 MJ/kg. I saw warmer and wetter events. Infrared radiation provides effective interaction between snow/ice surface and wet air mass.
1 km x 1000 km - this is both horizontal dimensions of a front, with 5 m/s wind speed? What about thickness of it then - 1 m? If you'd elaborate a bit more, i'd be grateful for sure.

P.S. For clarity and lurkers, let's note here that 1 kJ/kg*K is air specific heat; 1.2 km/m^3 is air mass, rounded, per m3; 2.3 MJ/kg is specific latent heat of vaporisation of water, which is released whenever vapor turns back into liquid. There is also 334 kJ/kg, which is latent heat of fusion of ice - the amount of energy it takes to melt 1 kg of it. And, of course, 50 km^3 is no less than roughly 50,000,000,000,000 kg of it (50 trillions kilograms).
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1251 on: May 29, 2020, 12:24:07 PM »
I'm not a physics expert, but you seem to be providing some testimony in support of the magnitude of land based WAA. If you're interested in providing a tutorial on another thread or via PM or can suggest a source where this math is explained, I'd appreciate it.

I created a topic for detailed discussions and to collect more information.

1 km x 1000 km - this is both horizontal dimensions of a front, with 5 m/s wind speed? What about thickness of it then - 1 m? If you'd elaborate a bit more, i'd be grateful for sure.

1km is height, 1000 km is width, 5 m/s is wind speed.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1252 on: May 29, 2020, 12:35:32 PM »
Ah, there we go, then it's "phew!" alright. I'm plenty sure we should not napkin-calc 1-km-tall layer for purposes of WAA to sea ice. IR transfer through this column will have massive losses: IR release is omni-directional, so lots of IR photons from mid and upper parts of that air mass will be released at all kinds of angles, half of them "upwards" at some angle; and then many of them which are going "somewhat downwards" - will be caught and re-radiated before reaching the ice. I believe well over half of total IR released by that air won't ever touch the ice, in the end, all known to me effects combined - if we talk 1 km tall air layer being the source of that IR radiation.

Further details and discussion, we all can dig into in that topic you created, yes.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1253 on: May 29, 2020, 01:37:48 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Look at all that energy coming in from the Atlantic...  :o
GAC or bipole forming? There seems to be a lot of energy present to form a big storm.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2020, 02:05:49 PM by Freegrass »
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1254 on: May 29, 2020, 03:17:22 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Look at all that energy coming in from the Atlantic...  :o
GAC or bipole forming? There seems to be a lot of energy present to form a big storm.

I must be looking at different charts because once the small dipole weakens, then the weather over the Arctic turns quite slack and in all honesty nothing out of the ordinary. Pressure is forecast to remain fairly high over the Pacific side of the basin with more lower pressure over the pole but too my eyes, I would suspect there won't be too much ice movement.

In terms of energy coming in from the Atlantic, there is only flirtations of a southerly flow, its not very strong and it actually reduces fram export I would of thought.

There is nothing in the forecasts to suggest a big deep low is set to hit the basin which is a good thing for the ice(for those who don't want record lows) really as constant cyclone activity can cause holes to appear in the CAB like it did in 2013 and 2016.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1255 on: May 29, 2020, 03:58:14 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Look at all that energy coming in from the Atlantic...  :o
GAC or bipole forming? There seems to be a lot of energy present to form a big storm.

The euro shows a decently strong cyclone moving up from Scandinavia over FJL into the CAB in about a week. Could be some winds in the 40 kt range to stir things up.

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1256 on: May 29, 2020, 09:09:19 PM »
The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor shows the Beaufort and Western CAB sea ice concentration increasing significantly in parts of these regions.




I suspect the same correction will be made on the Russian side, this coming week.

The global models are in forecasting agreement that weather conditions will be neutral to slightly favorable for northern hemisphere sea ice retention over the next 2 weeks.




Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1257 on: May 30, 2020, 01:00:49 AM »
Weatherdude if you look back through this thread you will see thatseveral times before we have remarked that the Bremen Sea Ice Conc charts are not to be relied on.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1258 on: May 30, 2020, 01:28:05 AM »
Steven's SMOS pixel count indicator is in a crossroads

Just like last year, I will be running a pixel counting algorithm on the SMOS images.  The beige pixel counting graph will be updated daily:



https://www.dropbox.com/s/fl2xs6aeop3ioen/SMOS_beige_pixels.png

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1259 on: May 30, 2020, 02:09:56 AM »
Yenisei river today...  ???
Is this the earliest?



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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1260 on: May 30, 2020, 06:01:04 AM »
Yes, must be earliest, and by far. Locals noted that near Dudinka, ice breakup in 2020 was May 16th, close to midnight local time, thus breaking previous record (1997, May 21st) by 5 days. In 2019, solid river ice was still present for some 1100 km distance from the place, for May 16th. They also note that Yenisei ice this year is unusually thin, too.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1261 on: May 30, 2020, 07:45:19 AM »
I also can't agree with @weatherdude that models are in agreement that the weather will be neutral or geared towards good for ice retention.

Temperatures are going to spend a lot of time above freezing over much of the arctic.

The CAA is definitely in a very favorable spot.

But not the arctic basin.

Its also a pretty normal phenomenon this time of year to show a bland lack long term pattern to end up with that not happening as sl time goes on.

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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1262 on: May 30, 2020, 08:29:56 AM »
May 25-29.

2019.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1263 on: May 30, 2020, 09:03:38 AM »
Disintegration of fast ice has begun. This is from the Laptev today.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1264 on: May 30, 2020, 09:49:36 AM »
Just looking at modis we can see how the big high pressure ridge during the middle of May totally left the surface layer of the Arctic broken down to where it will really only take one or two days of warmth or sunshine to go straight to wetness.

Also there have been subtle signs on the models in the medium range of them breaking down the large Greenland locked vortex and going into the three small summer vortex pattern that is highly associated with the gis base dipole anomaly.

Is a medium range there have been various degrees of heights rising while a larger vortex take shape along the Russian coastline.

So far we have not seen the models really pump out a full-blown highly anomalous ridge patterned dipole.  But I wouldn't be surprised.


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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1265 on: May 30, 2020, 03:13:41 PM »
Disintegration of fast ice has begun. This is from the Laptev today.
A little further north, Lena Delta flood meltwater is visible on the fast ice surface, which is much narrower than 'normal' this year.  https://go.nasa.gov/2MbYaKO, may20-30
edit: closer view here
edit: added uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh of the same area (inset) clearly showing how amsr2 concentration can be confused by surface water resting on ice.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 10:01:18 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1266 on: May 30, 2020, 03:53:44 PM »
It is quite usual to see AMSR2 images showing false areas of low concentration as the melt season gets into high gear. It is not so usual to see them persist.

Twixt Laptev and the North pole, up to North of 85, such an area appeared on May 27. Since then it has got bigger and stronger
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1267 on: May 30, 2020, 04:20:28 PM »
I guess it has something to do with the rain (darker blue tones).

Click to play.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1268 on: May 30, 2020, 04:40:32 PM »
I guess it has something to do with the rain (darker blue tones).

Click to play.

it's also warm there. GFS is showing a +2C 2m temp in the region.

You don't often see a blob in the middle of the Arctic that is represented as warmer than the area surrounding it, but this is one of the occasions. Only a 1C differential, but i wonder what causes this.  Could be connected to the temp of the rain !

johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1269 on: May 30, 2020, 05:19:30 PM »
"AMSR2" the hard edge, north of 85o, to the right of the area is almost directly above Gakkel ridge and looking close up on the 28th there are signs of vortices aligned with it towards Laptev. I suspect internal wave action is breaking through to the surface between Gakkel and Lomonosov supressed by the change of depth influx from St. Anna/Voronin troughs on the Nansen side.
 My take is that there are sufficient openings occuring to allow sublimation of sea spray freeing salt to first melt the ice then deep freeze it again, except that the process seems to be repeating it would rapidly vanish as usual.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 05:19:07 PM by johnm33 »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1270 on: May 30, 2020, 09:14:27 PM »
Latest EC 12z op model run is a tough one for the sea nice if it would verify. Especially for the later part of the forecast run.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 11:13:54 PM by Lord M Vader »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1271 on: May 30, 2020, 10:26:45 PM »
DMI temperature north of 80N.


Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1272 on: May 30, 2020, 10:40:59 PM »
Latest EC 12z op modell rum is a tough one for the sea nice if it would verify. Especially for the later part of the forecast run.

There are some hints from today runs the Beaufort high may gain strength and low pressure over Laptev giving somewhat dipole conditions although its still a bit far out and details will change on the next run in anycase(for better or  worse).

Short to medium is for quite slack conditions espoecially over the CAB, the high pressure cell never really leaves the Beaufort sea but there is not much wind showing so melt ponds will probably be more of an issue than open water imo.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1273 on: May 30, 2020, 11:19:06 PM »
Disintegration of fast ice has begun. This is from the Laptev today.
A little further north, Lena Delta flood meltwater is visible on the fast ice surface, which is much narrower than 'normal' this year.  https://go.nasa.gov/2MbYaKO, may20-30
edit: closer view here

Thanks for posting this...it's insane! If you look around on world view, you can see almost ALL rivers leading to the arctic are emptying onto the ice. I've never analyzed the implications of so much fresh water into the system this early.
pls!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1274 on: May 31, 2020, 01:47:29 AM »
It is quite usual to see AMSR2 images showing false areas of low concentration as the melt season gets into high gear. It is not so usual to see them persist.

Twixt Laptev and the North pole, up to North of 85, such an area appeared on May 27. Since then it has got bigger and stronger
I think it's important to remember how much the Polarstern has drifted during winter, and the amount of ice that got expelled through Fram with that big export event. All that ice needed to be replaced by new ice. So if you take the long distance of the polarstar drift, you know that this entire area must be made up of very thin ice that is easily broken up in a storm. JMHO...
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1275 on: May 31, 2020, 01:55:42 AM »
Latest EC 12z op model run is a tough one for the sea nice if it would verify. Especially for the later part of the forecast run.
I find in the final frames of ECMWF 10-day forecasts that a warm dipole is razor thin close to becoming a colder Arctic-centered low, and viceversa. We’ll see...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1276 on: May 31, 2020, 04:29:49 AM »
The NATL block has steadily trended stronger over the past few days. This is pretty typical with big blocks, as NWP is often too weak with these features and breaks them down too quickly. However, with it trending stronger, this also makes it more difficult for a TPV to set up over/near the pole as it prevents closed lows from forming immediately north of the block as it favors convergence aloft at the jet level and mass transport poleward. Hence the reason we're seeing that nascent PV pattern break down before it can consolidate.

In non-linear fashion, it will also buckle the flow upstream and likely cause amplification of a ridge over the NA side. Currently, it's suggested that the NATL block will return in mid-June and that's plausible, but too far out to speculate too much on that one yet.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1277 on: May 31, 2020, 05:05:12 AM »

 If you look around on world view, you can see almost ALL rivers leading to the arctic are emptying onto the ice. I've never analyzed the implications of so much fresh water into the system this early.

The root cause of all the early influx is clearly problematic. But if it's coming, it's probably best that it comes quick and doesn't get delayed en route and get a chance to warm up at lower latitude. Any influx of warm fresh water is going to stay at the surface and melt the ice that it encounters.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1278 on: May 31, 2020, 09:52:03 AM »
Arctic: I can't breathe. The melting pond is expanding and worse than 2012 and 2016.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 01:48:02 PM by peterlvmeng »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1279 on: May 31, 2020, 11:19:12 AM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 11:25:54 AM by Phoenix »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1280 on: May 31, 2020, 11:50:47 AM »
Triple attack.

Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1281 on: May 31, 2020, 12:31:21 PM »
However the CAA still resistant for the early melting. The snow depth is quite above average in that region. I expect more ice survived in CAA/Beaufort than 2012. But the Laptev bite can extend very far to the Pole because of thin ice and bad season start

jjj18641

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1282 on: May 31, 2020, 01:28:06 PM »
Arctic:

Can someone help me out with what I'm looking at here?

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1283 on: May 31, 2020, 01:47:07 PM »
Arctic:

Can someone help me out with what I'm looking at here?

Ask this in stupid questions (it's not stupid at all though if you don't know Terra MODIS corrected reflectance satellite images, and the interface, NASA EOSDIS Worldview, Arctic view)

Another question is what Peter is trying to show apart from the obvious cloudiness over the Arctic. Ice surface wetness revealed by a more intense red?

Edit: there you go.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 01:55:06 PM by gandul »

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1284 on: May 31, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
Yes. This year Beaufort sea surface is getting wetterr sooner than 2019 and little by little ice drift is showing open water,  a persistent Beaufort high early June is not good!!

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1285 on: May 31, 2020, 01:58:41 PM »
Arctic:

Can someone help me out with what I'm looking at here?

Ask this in stupid questions (it's not stupid at all though if you don't know Terra MODIS corrected reflectance satellite images, and the interface, NASA EOSDIS Worldview, Arctic view)

Another question is what Peter is trying to show apart from the obvious cloudiness over the Arctic. Ice surface wetness revealed by a more intense red?

Edit: there you go.
I am sorry for the poor network.  The red region means low albedo and wetter the surface. It is important for the melting momentum established.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1286 on: May 31, 2020, 02:10:24 PM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
Yes. This year Beaufort sea surface is getting wetterr sooner than 2019 and little by little ice drift is showing open water,  a persistent Beaufort high early June is not good!!

Wetter than 2019 at this point would be hard to say. 2019 is 200k km2 ahead of 2020 area loss at this point with major region of open sea. Hard to get wetter than open water. Now we watch 2020 catch up in this region.

sailor

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1287 on: May 31, 2020, 02:16:38 PM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
Yes. This year Beaufort sea surface is getting wetterr sooner than 2019 and little by little ice drift is showing open water,  a persistent Beaufort high early June is not good!!

Wetter than 2019 at this point would be hard to say. 2019 is 200k km2 ahead of 2020 area loss at this point with major region of open sea. Hard to get wetter than open water. Now we watch 2020 catch up in this region.

What Gandul was trying to say is about the surface of the ice.

I was going to illustrate same point as you with the following comparison.

The Beaufort sea has a long ways to go to even compare to 2019 in terms of open water.

But Beaufort sea ice was obliterated in 2012 not by a stunning initial open water extent, but by relentless warmth from the continent and sun over a "sea" of melt ponds.
Note that snow cover over Banks island was already gone in 2012, still there in 2019 and 2020.
Although snow cover overall in the NH may be as bad as it was in 2012.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 02:49:40 PM by sailor »
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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1288 on: May 31, 2020, 02:40:09 PM »

What Gandul was trying to say is about the surface of the ice.


That was my understanding as well. But since open water has such minimal albedo that wetness" is more important in heating up the sea which will be important when the gyre breaks into pieces. 2019 had an advanced quality of high SST's near the coast of Canada. When the wind blew the rubble toward the coast, this was a death zone for the ice. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1289 on: May 31, 2020, 02:53:47 PM »
I was talking about what is visible on Peter's image, but never mind, I get your point.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1290 on: May 31, 2020, 06:07:14 PM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
Don't forget the inflow of hot pacific water with the Alaskan Coastal Current!!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304/loc=-165.460,63.479
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1291 on: May 31, 2020, 08:30:07 PM »
Last week in data:

Ice drift map first.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1292 on: May 31, 2020, 08:30:49 PM »
7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies & DMI 80°N 2m Temperature

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1293 on: May 31, 2020, 08:31:41 PM »
Fram (non-) export via SAR.

Click to play.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1294 on: May 31, 2020, 08:36:34 PM »
2020 vs 2019 (Disclaimer: Don't take that scale literally. Sensors can confuse wet surfaces with open seawater)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1295 on: May 31, 2020, 10:53:09 PM »
The (apparent?) low concentration blob appeared on the 27th May. Each day it's got bigger and bigger. It is that persistence that persuades me that even if it is just melt ponds, real damage is being done to the ice at well North of 85.. We are at the peak period of insolation.

In June aren't clear skies and forecast warmth just as good as stormy weather to melt out ice?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1296 on: May 31, 2020, 11:06:24 PM »
In June aren't clear skies and forecast warmth just as good as stormy weather to melt out ice?
The sun adds heat to the system. Storms take it away. Because all storms do is they stir up the water, bringing heat to the surface that melts the ice, and vanishes into the atmosphere. Storms add nothing to the energy balance, right?
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 11:31:11 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1297 on: May 31, 2020, 11:26:22 PM »
Arctic: I can't breathe. The melting pond is expanding and worse than 2012 and 2016.

You can see the telltale swirls of ice melting in the darkest red areas on Worldview.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1298 on: May 31, 2020, 11:36:11 PM »
Low concentration artefacts coming and going, amsr2-uhh concentration, may14-30

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1299 on: June 01, 2020, 12:05:41 AM »
The (apparent?) low concentration blob appeared on the 27th May. Each day it's got bigger and bigger. It is that persistence that persuades me that even if it is just melt ponds, real damage is being done to the ice at well North of 85.. We are at the peak period of insolation.

In June aren't clear skies and forecast warmth just as good as stormy weather to melt out ice?

I looked on worldview and the low concentration imo is not melt ponds but signs of dispersion which imo could be worse than melt ponds itself, especially if the retreated ice reaches that area from the Laptev for example. I don't think the dispersion is as wide as that however there is definately some there and its one to watch.