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Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 190556 times)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1300 on: June 01, 2020, 12:54:32 AM »
Latest EC 12z op model run is a tough one for the sea nice if it would verify. Especially for the later part of the forecast run.
I find in the final frames of ECMWF 10-day forecasts that a warm dipole is razor thin close to becoming a colder Arctic-centered low, and viceversa. We’ll see...

Not seeing that at all
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1301 on: June 01, 2020, 02:18:13 AM »
This is forecast for next Saturday made by the last five 12z runs. Now it’s converging and more assertive on a warmer prediction, but it has been switching between a couple of outcomes.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2020, 09:12:56 AM by gandul »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1302 on: June 01, 2020, 09:20:38 AM »
May 27-31.

2019.

May 1-31 (fast).

charles_oil

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1303 on: June 01, 2020, 09:31:13 AM »
Alu - great videos thanks - but it would be handy to know dates as it rolls around - can't really even see start and finish as the first one (whole month) looks fairly similar throughout.  If its a compilation of frames maybe for example rather than 31 flashing numbers - maybe use week 1 / week 2 / week 3 ?

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1304 on: June 01, 2020, 10:04:04 AM »
May 27-31.

2019.

May 1-31 (fast).

These are awesome !! Love the one month format and the addition of the link to prior year comparison. Very educational.

We need a solid southerly wind through CAA to open the megacrack and then we can watch the whole damn thing spin.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1305 on: June 01, 2020, 12:04:19 PM »
Alu - great videos thanks - but it would be handy to know dates as it rolls around - can't really even see start and finish as the first one (whole month) looks fairly similar throughout.  If its a compilation of frames maybe for example rather than 31 flashing numbers - maybe use week 1 / week 2 / week 3 ?
First and last frames stay 3-10 times longer. At least it works on my computer in Firefox. Text is added.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1306 on: June 01, 2020, 01:36:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1307 on: June 01, 2020, 04:21:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
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Good stuff Freegrass. This version with temp + wind IMO is the best version and a nice contribution to the thread.

This one is very interesting to see the interaction of the Beaufort high with three lows around it and well demonstrates the winds which should be pushing the Beaufort pack ice toward an eventual liftoff point. I recall an interesting poll thread discussion around that last year. There is a bit of a tease in the very end of the 5 day window with the warmth coming from the Atlantic side. Curious to see where that warmth is intended to go on subsequent days.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1308 on: June 01, 2020, 06:06:14 PM »
indeed .. 745 compulsory downloads already
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Milwen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1309 on: June 01, 2020, 06:26:37 PM »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1310 on: June 01, 2020, 07:46:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Good stuff Freegrass. This version with temp + wind IMO is the best version and a nice contribution to the thread.

This one is very interesting to see the interaction of the Beaufort high with three lows around it and well demonstrates the winds which should be pushing the Beaufort pack ice toward an eventual liftoff point. I recall an interesting poll thread discussion around that last year. There is a bit of a tease in the very end of the 5 day window with the warmth coming from the Atlantic side. Curious to see where that warmth is intended to go on subsequent days.
Thanks Phoenix. Doing my best to provide a service.

I'm curious to see if that strong southern wind coming through the Nares Strait will be strong enough to loosen the Lincoln plug.

Fram export will pick up again, and some ice will be blown towards the Barents sea. I don't expect much though, unless that storm gets any stronger. I'll be posting the "energy" video tomorrow to see if that storm finds some more food to eat so it can grow as I predicted... Good for my ego, bad for the ice...  :(
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wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1311 on: June 01, 2020, 08:55:07 PM »
(Unprecedented) flatlining in area over the last several days.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1312 on: June 02, 2020, 12:33:11 AM »
That uptick is really surprising to me and I don't totally know how to read it. I'm not convinced right now or the last few weeks have been that good for ice retention either.

My suspicion is that the clearer weather, lack of a major storm affecting the entire pack has allowed extent to remain somewhat static while melt ponds, sea surface warning, and bottom melt have been affecting the structure of the ice, but not actual extent. I really don't know tho...the Arctic constantly makes me question my knowledge
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1313 on: June 02, 2020, 03:02:58 AM »
THE JUDGEMENT DAY is coming. Terribly large low albedo region ever seen.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1314 on: June 02, 2020, 05:10:15 AM »
THE JUDGEMENT DAY is coming. Terribly large low albedo region ever seen.

Hi peter, is it possible to put up a comparison with 2019 as well ?

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1315 on: June 02, 2020, 06:06:08 AM »
THE JUDGEMENT DAY is coming. Terribly large low albedo region ever seen.

Hi peter, is it possible to put up a comparison with 2019 as well ?

Of course. You can try this website and have a look. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1316 on: June 02, 2020, 07:10:16 AM »
In June aren't clear skies and forecast warmth just as good as stormy weather to melt out ice?
The sun adds heat to the system. Storms take it away. Because all storms do is they stir up the water, bringing heat to the surface that melts the ice, and vanishes into the atmosphere. Storms add nothing to the energy balance, right?

A storm brings a hell of a lot of warm and wet air from further south. Low-pressure areas form mostly over the N-Atlantic, sometimes as far south as the Gulf region, and flow northwards. They carry massive heat and moisture besides all the kinetic energy that churns the ice up.

Sunny skies vs. strong storm is one of the perennial debates on this forum, opinion seems to me to be that the ice can melt just as easily when battered by a strong storm as it can under direct insolation. But perhaps timing is important here also - a storm at the time of maximum insolation in June an July may cause less melt than clear skies, but later in the season I would guess that a good storm can do much more damage than the sun. Besides, the kinetic factor is probably most effective late in the season when there is more open water to whip up into waves, and easier to push the ice around.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1317 on: June 02, 2020, 10:27:55 AM »
That uptick is really surprising to me and I don't totally know how to read it.
<snip>
Disappearing melt ponds, either through refreeze or draining, over wide areas.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1318 on: June 02, 2020, 12:52:23 PM »
indeed .. 745 compulsory downloads already
I apologize bc but it is this thread's policy to have these forecasts from time to time. I know you are under a serious bandwidth constraint but there is not much that can be done here. This thread will continue to be data-heavy. Bear in mind your message might give bad feelings to the posters involved, who are doing a community service.
I wish the forum would have a software preference switch to avoid downloading attachments of certain kinds, or over certain sizes, or simply any attachments, as for example WhatsApp does. A very useful feature. This should be taken up with Neven and/or DM in the appropriate thread or via pm.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1319 on: June 02, 2020, 01:14:39 PM »
In June aren't clear skies and forecast warmth just as good as stormy weather to melt out ice?
The sun adds heat to the system. Storms take it away. Because all storms do is they stir up the water, bringing heat to the surface that melts the ice, and vanishes into the atmosphere. Storms add nothing to the energy balance, right?

A storm brings a hell of a lot of warm and wet air from further south. Low-pressure areas form mostly over the N-Atlantic, sometimes as far south as the Gulf region, and flow northwards. They carry massive heat and moisture besides all the kinetic energy that churns the ice up.

Sunny skies vs. strong storm is one of the perennial debates on this forum, opinion seems to me to be that the ice can melt just as easily when battered by a strong storm as it can under direct insolation. But perhaps timing is important here also - a storm at the time of maximum insolation in June an July may cause less melt than clear skies, but later in the season I would guess that a good storm can do much more damage than the sun. Besides, the kinetic factor is probably most effective late in the season when there is more open water to whip up into waves, and easier to push the ice around.
I've moved the discussion here Binntho.

I think that storms at this time of year Polynyaficate the ice so that the ocean can suck up more heat during summer. Storms at the end of the season suck out that heat again and return it to the atmosphere.

But let's not clog up the Melting thread with that discussion.

Thank you Oren!  :D
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1320 on: June 02, 2020, 02:12:51 PM »
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1321 on: June 02, 2020, 02:25:21 PM »
What a wonderful year. :)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1322 on: June 02, 2020, 02:36:32 PM »
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My ego is enormous right now... Look at that little storm go! It just keeps feeding and growing and will find a little more energy from the pacific at the end of the forecast, before it probably dies...

But what I've noticed this season is that it seems like the models keep underestimating the influence of reduced particles in the atmosphere. It seems like the models again underestimated the strength of this storm when it first popped up. But that's where I hand it off to the specialists. Do the number tell you what I see? Are the forecasts underestimating the weather? (storms and temperatures) Could this be because the models have a problem with clean air?

And are you seeing what's about to happen at the end?  :'( If that's underestimated again, hold on tight!
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weatherdude88

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1323 on: June 02, 2020, 02:53:48 PM »
The record breaking NSIDC sea ice area gains continue. This is the third record breaking daily increase in the last 8 days (5.25,5.31, and 6.1).



Additionally, global weather models continue to forecast neutral to slightly favorable conditions for ice retention. They have been trending more to the slightly favorable side of the envelope. Weak pressure gradients, mild SLP anomaly, ridging over the western arctic, and troughing at times over the central and eastern arctic look to be the theme over then next 10 days.







 


oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1324 on: June 02, 2020, 02:58:49 PM »
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Export of thick ice to the Fram and the Barents will pick up in the next few days, hopefully it will not be sustained.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1325 on: June 02, 2020, 03:19:21 PM »
The record breaking NSIDC sea ice area gains continue. This is the third record breaking daily increase in the last 8 days (5.25,5.31, and 6.1).
Could you please indicate if this is an artifact or if the ice is really freezing exceptionally fast at this moment? The latter seems very unlikely, given the current temperatures in the Arctic.
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1326 on: June 02, 2020, 03:31:19 PM »
Yet another day of below average extent losses

Is that 7 days in a row now?! Looks like the ice is being rather resilliant. I wonder if this will continue.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1327 on: June 02, 2020, 03:31:58 PM »
The record breaking NSIDC sea ice area gains continue. This is the third record breaking daily increase in the last 8 days (5.25,5.31, and 6.1).
Could you please indicate if this is an artifact or if the ice is really freezing exceptionally fast at this moment? The latter seems very unlikely, given the current temperatures in the Arctic.

As Oren says, it could be melt ponds refreezing thus increasing area concentrations, it is fairly chilly around the CAB atm. It could also be the NSIDC correcting itself as it did show alot of lower concentrations in the CAB whilst the Breman charts did not apart from that lower concentration that has been pointed out which ironically has disappeared now although I stand by the satalite were picking up dispersion in some of that area and not melt ponds.

Weather conditions at the moment are quite favourable for the ice also at the moment although the forecast is showing the Beaufort high gaining strength again which will bring some warmth here and again increasing ice movement via the Beaufort Gyre.

We also got forecasts for a low to be near the CAB/Laptev region, we shall see what impacts that will have on the ice.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1328 on: June 02, 2020, 03:45:34 PM »
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Export of thick ice to the Fram and the Barents will pick up in the next few days, hopefully it will not be sustained.
Yes, and it looks like it could get a lot worse on the long term forecast, with a strong western wind along the Greenland and CAA coasts. Similar to what we had earlier in the year. But surely not as bad. That would be disastrous...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1329 on: June 02, 2020, 04:05:27 PM »
So area and compaction are BOTH climbing? What the... :o

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1330 on: June 02, 2020, 04:12:20 PM »
As compaction is area divided by extent, it tends to go up when area goes up, and more markedly if extent continues to drop.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1331 on: June 02, 2020, 06:40:16 PM »
The total area of 2020 v. 2019 is now almost exactly the same thru 6/1, but the regional disparity is just crazy. Let's break it down according to a regional perspective.

Where 2020 leads:

Atlantic (Kara / Barents, +135k)
Siberia (ESS + Laptev, +200k)
Periphery (the rest, +100k)

Where 2019 leads

Pacific (Beaufort / Chukchi, + 350k)
Core (CAB / CAA, + 80k)
Greenland (+10k)

Analysis -  2019 maintains huge lead in seas which retained significant ice at 2019 minimum (CAB, CAA and Beaufort). Best opportunity for 2020 to make up ground is Siberian CAB. Making up ground on Atlantic CAB is historically difficult penetrating deep Arctic. Advantage 2019. Pathway to a record in 2020 after a coldish winter, slow start in Pacific and now a pause in momentum seems unlikely to say the least. But this has been a strange year and weather gods will always prevail.

edit: Wipneus has posted the PIOMAS gif depiction for May and the 3D picture conforms to the 2D picture. Looks like the best place for 2020 to make a run at the CAB is definitely from Laptev. Beaufort / CAA ice looking very healthy in 3D.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 11:58:23 AM by Phoenix »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1332 on: June 03, 2020, 09:13:22 AM »
May 29 - June 2.

2019.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1333 on: June 03, 2020, 09:20:23 AM »
It seems to me that most open sea in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, Barents, etc have had almost constant cloud cover lately. Just 2-3 days per location within the last two weeks where the sun has really been able to take advantage of this low albedo. Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 09:26:04 AM by grixm »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1334 on: June 03, 2020, 11:40:12 AM »
It seems to me that most open sea in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, Barents, etc have had almost constant cloud cover lately. Just 2-3 days per location within the last two weeks where the sun has really been able to take advantage of this low albedo. Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?

A lurker here. However, I feel the need to write so that people could perhaps clarify some things here. People have been writing that due to lack of aerosols now there was supposed to be constant sunlight in Arctic. But now it turns out it's cloudy there? People here on the forum have been hyped up that there is going to be massive melt in Arctic, but nothing was happening in late May. (of course, a long way still to go this season)

I just hope people would clarify what is the actual situation in Arctic. Is it sunny or cloudy then? Is the shutdown of economy and lack of aerosols actually having an effect or not? In mid-May people were writing that impressive weather events at that moment were going to kickstart an impressive melting campaign. So what is the outcome then?

People also write about "preconditioning/meltponding" of ice, and it is supposed to be highly favourable for a good melt season this year. How much time would it take to actually materialize in an actual melt? Or perhaps this 'preconditioning' never truly materializes and we end up with a whimper of a melt season? (which in my view would be anything outside top3 in the yearly minimum standings)

I have been reading a lot of posts here lately, but I admit I got confused now. I'm sure other people here are more experienced in following the Arctic, so perhaps someone can give a good summary.

jens

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1335 on: June 03, 2020, 11:47:16 AM »
The total area of 2020 v. 2019 is now almost exactly the same thru 6/1, but the regional disparity is just crazy. Let's break it down according to a regional perspective.

Where 2020 leads:

Atlantic (Kara / Barents, +135k)
Siberia (ESS + Laptev, +200k)
Periphery (the rest, +100k)

Where 2019 leads

Pacific (Beaufort / Chukchi, + 350k)
Core (CAB / CAA, + 80k)
Greenland (+10k)

Analysis -  2019 maintains huge lead in seas which retained significant ice at 2019 minimum (CAB, CAA and Beaufort). Best opportunity for 2020 to make up ground is Siberian CAB. Making up ground on Atlantic CAB is historically difficult penetrating deep Arctic. Advantage 2019. Pathway to a record in 2020 after a coldish winter, slow start in Pacific and now a pause in momentum seems unlikely to say the least. But this has been a strange year and weather gods will always prevail.

While you claim that 2019 is going to catch up with 2020 on the Eurasian side of seas, 2020 could also catch up with 2019 on the North American side. There is 3 months to go till season minimum. What makes you think 2020 can't catch up in Beaufort during that timeframe?

You have claimed that in those seas, where 2020 currently leads, they are supposed to "hit the wall". Doesn't the same apply to seas in which 2019 leads? 2019 wasn't going to penetrate into Beaufort forever, so at some point this advantage would shrink.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1336 on: June 03, 2020, 01:34:15 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1337 on: June 03, 2020, 01:43:22 PM »
Wow. Must we prepare for the Beaufort Gyre to have a lift off?  ???
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1338 on: June 03, 2020, 01:46:33 PM »
It seems to me that most open sea in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, Barents, etc have had almost constant cloud cover lately. Just 2-3 days per location within the last two weeks where the sun has really been able to take advantage of this low albedo. Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?
Cloudiness was a variable in my prediction for this season. More energy means more storms and thus more clouds. And this may well turn out to be a saviour for the ice. It's been very foggy on the ice as well.

The one thing I don't understand is the Beaufort sea. That's way behind this season, and I think it has to do with the almost constant northerlies that were blowing through the Bering strait. All the ice in the chukchi sea got pushed north, and that covered the ocean, preventing it from heating up. If anyone else knows the reason for a slow beaufort melt, please let me know. I haven't got a clue really...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1339 on: June 03, 2020, 01:50:50 PM »
Wow. Must we prepare for the Beaufort Gyre to have a lift off?  ???
I don't see anything different in the Beaufort. That wind has been blowing like that for a long time now. That's why I don't understand why there's still so much ice there... It doesn't make sense to me...

Watch the Fram this week!
And the Lincoln plug...
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1340 on: June 03, 2020, 01:54:59 PM »
That wind has been blowing like that for a long time now.

I know! That's what i'm talking about.  ;)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1341 on: June 03, 2020, 02:08:54 PM »
A lurker here. However, I feel the need to write so that people could perhaps clarify some things here. People have been writing that due to lack of aerosols now there was supposed to be constant sunlight in Arctic. But now it turns out it's cloudy there? People here on the forum have been hyped up that there is going to be massive melt in Arctic, but nothing was happening in late May. (of course, a long way still to go this season)

I just hope people would clarify what is the actual situation in Arctic. Is it sunny or cloudy then? Is the shutdown of economy and lack of aerosols actually having an effect or not? In mid-May people were writing that impressive weather events at that moment were going to kickstart an impressive melting campaign. So what is the outcome then?

People also write about "preconditioning/meltponding" of ice, and it is supposed to be highly favourable for a good melt season this year. How much time would it take to actually materialize in an actual melt? Or perhaps this 'preconditioning' never truly materializes and we end up with a whimper of a melt season? (which in my view would be anything outside top3 in the yearly minimum standings)

I have been reading a lot of posts here lately, but I admit I got confused now. I'm sure other people here are more experienced in following the Arctic, so perhaps someone can give a good summary.
Welcome Jens!
Lack of aerosol can make the air clearer and let more sunlight through, but still clouds can form and block the sunlight. In any case, I don't think anyone has definitive proof (at least yet) that that shutdowns are having a measurable effect on the sea ice.
Preconditioning in May usually pays off in June and July. At this time of year it often feels as if the melting season is gone with a whimper - this will (probably) change.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1342 on: June 03, 2020, 02:37:44 PM »
Wow. Must we prepare for the Beaufort Gyre to have a lift off?  ???
I don't see anything different in the Beaufort. That wind has been blowing like that for a long time now. That's why I don't understand why there's still so much ice there... It doesn't make sense to me...

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Firstly don't take 2019 and 2016 as the norm, it really was not and what we saw in the Beaufort last year especially was mindblowing.

In terms of the reasons why, well quite simple imo, April and to a lesser extent May was dominated by cooler and lower pressure in the Beaufort, this meant the Beaufort Gyre was not moving the ice towards the CAB and leaving open water(or thin ice) behind. Both 2016 and 2019 was dominated by the Beaufort high but even so, the thinness of the ice these days was really exposed last year by how much open water did actually appeared.

The forecast is for the Beaufort high to remain and I do suspect the ice will start moving again, it is thicker than last year so we should not quite see what we saw last year but one to watch for sure.

Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1343 on: June 03, 2020, 02:38:39 PM »
...
A lurker here. However, I feel the need to write so that people could perhaps clarify some things here. People have been writing that due to lack of aerosols now there was supposed to be constant sunlight in Arctic. But now it turns out it's cloudy there?
...

I don't think anyone said the lack of aerosols would bring constant sunlight.  The lack of aerosols would bring clearer air which would make more energy get through when the sun was shining.  This would also lead to more moisture in the air which would in turn mean more precipitation and more clouds.

Back on page 7 I posted some images and a link to a video which does a good job summarizing the history of research into the impact of aerosol reduction.

It seems there will be more heat and more rain but perhaps less overall direct sunlight?  I'm not really sure what conditions will prevail and also not sure how moving all those levers would affect the melt season.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1344 on: June 03, 2020, 02:41:23 PM »

Hi Jens, welcome to the forum. :)

Quote
People have been writing that due to lack of aerosols now there was supposed to be constant sunlight in Arctic.

For a cloud to form you need nuclei in the air on which the gas can transform into a liquid. Can be polls, can be stuff produced when things burn.

So the question was if the fact that we burn less stuff would lead to a measurable effect.

Now, suppose it has an effect, we can't see that in the data quite yet. Scientists have to analyze it after the fact. That takes time.

Quote
But now it turns out it's cloudy there?

Weather happens all the time. ;)

Quote
People here on the forum have been hyped up that there is going to be massive melt in Arctic, but nothing was happening in late May. (of course, a long way still to go this season)

IDK, man. I wouldn't say nothing happened. Looking at the numbers, depending on what measure you are looking at, we are hovering around record low and 4the in the rank. That's something IMHO.

In general, we are talking about a very sluggish system here, don't expect things to happen just like that.
Quote
I just hope people would clarify what is the actual situation in Arctic. Is it sunny or cloudy then? Is the shutdown of economy and lack of aerosols actually having an effect or not?

I bet there will be a lot of research and comparing on the topic and i think we'll know someday. Just stay tuned. :)

 
Quote
In mid-May people were writing that impressive weather

There actually was an impressive high.

Quote
People also write about "preconditioning/meltponding" of ice, and it is supposed to be highly favourable for a good melt season this year.

I think this still holds true. We'll see.

Quote
How much time would it take to actually materialize in an actual melt?

It is indeed melting. But the real question is, is it melting more or less fast. But again, we'll see at the end of the melt season.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1345 on: June 03, 2020, 02:58:02 PM »
The one thing I don't understand is the Beaufort sea. That's way behind this season...

2019 was exceptionally strong start in Beaufort. To begin the season, low volume as depicted in Wip's volume gif. Strong heat in NW Canada which was similar to what we saw in Siberia a week or so ago. Early presence of warm SST's and the right wind direction to import the heat from NA and push the open water which got the albedo down. Everything was clicking.

Now you see the wind along the Beaufort coast which you noted from your gif. The angle of the wind is not quite perfect for maximizing the open water. It is blowing just slightly in the direction of NA which will keep some ice pinned to the coast. Also, the current wind is pulling air in from CAA which is now cold so next day or two won't be so bad for the ice. In a few days, it is forecast to start pulling air from a warmer source which should speed things up.

Good way to find this out.....go to the 2019 data thread and determine the dates when the ice loss was taking off and then go to the 2019 melting thread for those dates and see what people were observing at that time.....check it out.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.900.html

The Walrus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1346 on: June 03, 2020, 03:57:20 PM »
It seems to me that most open sea in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, Barents, etc have had almost constant cloud cover lately. Just 2-3 days per location within the last two weeks where the sun has really been able to take advantage of this low albedo. Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?

A lurker here. However, I feel the need to write so that people could perhaps clarify some things here. People have been writing that due to lack of aerosols now there was supposed to be constant sunlight in Arctic. But now it turns out it's cloudy there? People here on the forum have been hyped up that there is going to be massive melt in Arctic, but nothing was happening in late May. (of course, a long way still to go this season)

I just hope people would clarify what is the actual situation in Arctic. Is it sunny or cloudy then? Is the shutdown of economy and lack of aerosols actually having an effect or not? In mid-May people were writing that impressive weather events at that moment were going to kickstart an impressive melting campaign. So what is the outcome then?

People also write about "preconditioning/meltponding" of ice, and it is supposed to be highly favourable for a good melt season this year. How much time would it take to actually materialize in an actual melt? Or perhaps this 'preconditioning' never truly materializes and we end up with a whimper of a melt season? (which in my view would be anything outside top3 in the yearly minimum standings)

I have been reading a lot of posts here lately, but I admit I got confused now. I'm sure other people here are more experienced in following the Arctic, so perhaps someone can give a good summary.

In general, posters here are pessimists.  Many present worst-case scenarios that could materialize, if certain conditions occur.  Hence, some never materialize.  Others just present the current state of the Arctic.  These may appear to contradict, but that is only because the forecasted conditions did not occur. 

passenger66

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1347 on: June 03, 2020, 06:40:48 PM »
It seems to me that most open sea in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, Barents, etc have had almost constant cloud cover lately. Just 2-3 days per location within the last two weeks where the sun has really been able to take advantage of this low albedo. Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?
I don't believe in negative feedbacks but something is keeping Stephan's graph in a straight line. Could cloudiness be a negative feedback?

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1348 on: June 03, 2020, 06:43:11 PM »
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=0&ui_sort=0

By the way, it is funny that the area of snow in North America (without Greenland) (the last column) for the last week of May (22nd) is now the maximum after 2004... Maximum over the past 16 years. And someone else does not believe in the cooling effect from aerosols of bitumen oil extracted in Canada.  :)

<Please take this dubious theory of the large effect of oil extraction to another thread, it does not belong in the main Season thread. O>
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 09:16:31 PM by oren »

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1349 on: June 03, 2020, 07:28:53 PM »
<snippage>
 Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?

A lurker here.
<snippage>
I have been reading a lot of posts here lately, but I admit I got confused now. I'm sure other people here are more experienced in following the Arctic, so perhaps someone can give a good summary.

In general, posters here are pessimists.  Many present worst-case scenarios that could materialize, if certain conditions occur.  Hence, some never materialize.  Others just present the current state of the Arctic.  These may appear to contradict, but that is only because the forecasted conditions did not occur.

Very much pessimists I agree.

I think the level of alarmism has diminished greatly as the group's understanding and experience has increased.  I think you will see more now in the way of people speaking to potentials... which in themselves are disturbing as *they* did not exist really prior to 2007 or so.

It comes down to this - what we see in the Arctic is a sum of forces applied over time.  These forces interact with and are shaped by both other forces and conditions outside of the Arctic.  Occasionally, they line up like they did in 2012.  What alarms us most is, the nature and scale of those forces over time is lining up to make 2012 (and worse) a regular event.

As a visualization of how these different forces interact, I love the metaphor provided by a multi-armed pendulum.  Each force has its own scale and cycle.  Each interacts more or less directly with the others it is connected with.  What we see - the end point - is the sum of all of those forces and cycles applied.


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