Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 607179 times)

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 167
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1400 on: June 06, 2020, 12:37:06 AM »
Not so sure the centered low will cool down things apart from the central CAB immediately, it seems will be pulling heat from the continents. Anyway, if it persists, then this thread is gonna lose many visitors.

The low itself does not pull in the heat, its an Arctic low hence its own cold air blob and low thicknesses. The warmth comes in via a ridge over the ESS and Chukchi but there's uncertainty just how much heat comes in and how long it lasts for. E.g on the GFS it looks brief but some signs on the ECM it may last longer.
Whatever, you got what I meant

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1401 on: June 06, 2020, 12:40:36 AM »

The low itself does not pull in the heat, its an Arctic low hence its own cold air blob and low thicknesses. The warmth comes in via a ridge over the ESS and Chukchi but there's uncertainty just how much heat comes in and how long it lasts for. E.g on the GFS it looks brief but some signs on the ECM it may last longer.

Nullschool uses the GFS and auto-updates, usually a ~4.5-5 day forecast. Haha yeah, on nullschool anyway, it cuts off right as its centered in the Chukchi with some decent winds, heat, and moisture. Looks like it could continue to some degree, has some winds coming off Alaska, could be the impetus to break open the Beaufort channel if the winds don't do it over the next few days. Could be the straw that breaks up some of that turquoise/dark coast ice in the ESS + Chukchi too, since that side of Eurasia heating up. We'll see.

Low pressure system over the next few days will probably help expand that body of water in the Laptev, and most of that "ice" on the inner Severnaya coast (island between Kara and Laptev) is basically just rubble pushed up against it, so likely to open up a bit in some fashion. Ice in more northern Laptev where winds are blowing might be worth paying attention to given the state of things.

Cyclone coming looks like it's going to be pretty effective. Kara tongue will continue to get beat up, Svalbard going to get it, we'll see what happens to the FJL ice. If the low pressure winds open up the inner Severnaya coast and the body of Laptev water expands, all the ice between the Laptev + Kara gets a lot more interesting pretty quick.

Will be an interesting next 5 days. Eurasia starting to heat, looks like warmth starts to peak over into the CAA a bit towards the end of it. Good northerlies heading down Baffin, Hudson gets a bit too. Atlantic may play a more important role this year.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 528
  • Likes Given: 119
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1402 on: June 06, 2020, 05:32:31 AM »
I'd be a bit careful about focussing too much on heat advection as a main (or even major) cause of melt. The real ice killer is the sun, and thermal radiation on ice does not increase air temperatures, it goes into melting the ice. Cloudiness is no guarantee for a lower insolation melting potential, and low pressure areas have been known to hide rapid melt under their cloud cover.

Edit: Heat advection is of course a major cause of melt. But not the only one!
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 05:45:50 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1960
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1403 on: June 06, 2020, 09:25:16 AM »
As usual what we need right now are buoys with cameras, which haven't been around since the O-Buoy program stopped.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1960
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1404 on: June 06, 2020, 09:35:48 AM »
With big thanks to uniquorn, it turns out there is such a buoy as part of the MOSAiC program, but lacking public access to its images unfortunately. Here's a link to a gif showing the last 7 days. It appears fresh snow could explain the uptick in NSIDC sea ice area. If this was widespread it could be good news for the ice as it temporarily fixes the albedo problem.
https://twitter.com/CKatlein/status/1268831481922797571?s=20

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1405 on: June 06, 2020, 10:38:31 AM »
It appears fresh snow could explain the uptick in NSIDC sea ice area. If this was widespread it could be good news for the ice as it temporarily fixes the albedo problem.


Thank you for sharing this observation Oren. Snow provides a missing explanation for the area reversal and yes, it's really good news if widespread. The living room snow dance worked  8)

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1406 on: June 06, 2020, 11:05:56 AM »
Here is the 00Z EURO from hour 48 to hour 240 at 24 hour intervals.

The top gif is the H5 heights and surface pressure.

The bottom gif is the 850mb temps and 850mb pressure.

Between 48-100 hours roughly the CAA and CAB get an influx of warmth and some sun.

But the entire run the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and ESS is warm.

The Eastern CAB, poleward, Kara, and Atlantic side is cloudyv and cool.

This is a solid ice loss pattern because the winds are favorable for Pacific to Atlantic ice movement.

And the biggest most consistent warmth and sun is over the Pacific side where water will slowly open up everyday and start warming up.

This is also going to crush CAB albedo over the Western 2/3 and the Western 2/3 CAA.

In the long range the vortex helps pull in very warm moist air from the North Pacific and far Eastern ESS.

While on the NA side a 60 degree latitude ridge perks up and helps keep the Russian vortex from migrating to the pole/CAB.

Between 60 and 90 hours there is a very strong super deep flow of warm moist air that rides a 20-25KT wind right into the Beaufort, Western CAB, and Western CAA this will decimate snow depth and albedo and bring instant melt ponds into the CAA, CAB, and Beaufort.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1407 on: June 06, 2020, 12:23:26 PM »
Here is the 00Z EURO from hour 48 to hour 240 at 24 hour intervals.....But the entire run the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and ESS is warm.


Thanks for the insightful post Friv.

Small caveat. I believe the 00Z corresponds to mid-afternoon in Alaska. Looking at snap shots 24 hours apart will have every shot for 10 days at the warmest part of the day. I think it's fair to say that it will be >0C in the Beaufort near NA at 2-3PM local time every day for 10 days, but not for 240 hours consecutively as some might infer from "the entire run..." is warm. GFS is looking at the 10 day average temp in the region as relatively close to normal warmth.


gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 167
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1408 on: June 06, 2020, 12:38:54 PM »
Not so sure the centered low will cool down things apart from the central CAB immediately, it seems will be pulling heat from the continents. Anyway, if it persists, then this thread is gonna lose many visitors.

The low itself does not pull in the heat, its an Arctic low hence its own cold air blob and low thicknesses. The warmth comes in via a ridge over the ESS and Chukchi but there's uncertainty just how much heat comes in and how long it lasts for. E.g on the GFS it looks brief but some signs on the ECM it may last longer.

Those are 850 hPa temperatures, at 1.5 km altitude approx. Better for showing how the heat flows into or out of the Arctic atmospherically, and not anchored to ground level diurnal/nocturnal land oscillations, melting temperature of the Arctic ocean, etc.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 12:44:40 PM by gandul »

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2751
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1242
  • Likes Given: 247
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1409 on: June 06, 2020, 03:15:11 PM »
As usual what we need right now are buoys with cameras, which haven't been around since the O-Buoy program stopped.
No camera but https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/386840 SIMB does measure ice and snow thickness, ocean temp and air temp. Presently in the Beaufort, just off the Mclure Strait.
I can remove the ani if it's superfluous
edit for binntho. Thickness chart is snow line at the top, ice is grey, ocean is blue.
link for the buoy data file iabp300434063386840. The animation lingers on some temperatures, not sure why.
edit: Interesting to see the euro 1050hPa forecast confirmed in that location.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 09:36:00 PM by uniquorn »

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 528
  • Likes Given: 119
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1410 on: June 06, 2020, 03:20:02 PM »
The animation is great - but I´m not sure how to read the thickness from the graphs.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 752
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 669
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1411 on: June 06, 2020, 03:32:32 PM »
This year had a peak at the level of champions but now AWP anomaly is equal to 2010s average.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1412 on: June 06, 2020, 04:02:50 PM »
This year had a peak at the level of champions but now AWP anomaly is equal to 2010s average.

This is humbling. 2020 provides a window into how AGW will conquer the remaining ice ...... by expanding the length of the peak melt season. The follow through wasn't there in this situation, but this a bullet we have to dodge going forward.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3733
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1413 on: June 06, 2020, 04:03:20 PM »
But that is the daily anomaly. The impact on the cumulative AWP anomaly is, as yet, minimal.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1414 on: June 06, 2020, 04:38:20 PM »
But that is the daily anomaly. The impact on the cumulative AWP anomaly is, as yet, minimal.

I refer to the opportunity that 2020 had to really set itself apart from the pack with an unprecedented early start. Now we head to the 4-5 week period with the most potential insolation and a persistent low pressure system camped out in the central Arctic forecast. The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet, but she is warming up. 

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1415 on: June 06, 2020, 06:07:08 PM »
But that is the daily anomaly. The impact on the cumulative AWP anomaly is, as yet, minimal.

I refer to the opportunity that 2020 had to really set itself apart from the pack with an unprecedented early start. Now we head to the 4-5 week period with the most potential insolation and a persistent low pressure system camped out in the central Arctic forecast. The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet, but she is warming up.

Imo, that large high pressure I felt was a bit overplayed on the impacts of the ice, especially ice around the CAB as the suns energy I would doubt would of been strong enough to affect the ice in terms of melt ponds. However the temperatures was above average and seeing a high just over 1045MB over the basin in mid May was impressive especially as May started off cold but the PV just got blown away in a matter of days.

Who knows, we may get a repeat during June, not really in terms of the strength of any high pressure but of course any cold air getting swept out of the way by warmer air. In the short to medium term, the cold air largely wins out for most of the basin although there is some warm air forecast for parts of the ESS and Chukchi seas.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 167
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1416 on: June 07, 2020, 12:56:08 AM »
The EC 12z of today is slightly more assertive on a warmer Pacific half with the low displaced slightly toward Kara and plenty of warm air from the Pacific and continents. High pressures installed over Beaufort, not the strongest but seems very persistent

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1417 on: June 07, 2020, 02:05:19 AM »
The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet, but she is warming up.

Ha ha ha. No.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1418 on: June 07, 2020, 03:49:29 AM »
The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet, but she is warming up.

Ha ha ha. No.

Ha ha ha, Yes.

We come to the period of the year between now and the end of July when AGW is not so influential and performance is much more consistent. We have 60 years of consistent summer temperature record in the most important region in the DMI 80. 2020 has ~ 700km3 more ice in the CAB than last year and needs a freak late finish in August like 2012 to just catch up to last year.

The 2D numbers have a lot of timing noise with good early peripheral start in 2020  in some places like Kara and Hudson making 2020 look stronger than it is. The signature is strongly that of a recovery year and the big mystery is how much of a recovery.

b.c. is looking like a prophet with his "2019+2 = 2021". 

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1960
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1419 on: June 07, 2020, 08:23:35 AM »
Phoenix, this has to be said:

It would do you well with a bit more humility and a bit less confidence. You have latched onto your theory like it's the gospel. I have taken the time to patiently explain some of its shortcomings in the DHACSOO thread, to no avail it seems.

Specifically I have explained the DMI N 80 data is heavily weighted around the pole itself, and is not a true measure of temperatures north of 80. And that the added energy from AGW gets soaked up by the ice and is not showing in temperature readings, this does not mean AGW is irrelevant. And that the data shows Inner Basin volume during the melting season does matter, and the CAB is not the only thing we should care about, due to melt progress, ice mobility and other factors.
I am fine with people expecting crashes and with people expecting recoveries. However I am not fine with your excessive preaching that can intimidate others from posting, others who may dislike confrontation, dislike harsh criticism and feel less sure of their insights and contributions. Be warned I am losing my patience. And the numerous moderator reports I have received say my instincts are justified.

BTW, 2020 could be a recovery year, this wiill not mean your theory was sound.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2073
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 727
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1420 on: June 07, 2020, 08:33:29 AM »
BTW, 2020 could be a recovery year, this wiill not mean your theory was sound.
I remember that Neven once wrote that we should not use the word "recovery", but just the word "rebound". I am not looking to sound like a gospel too, but I strongly agree with Neven.  ;D

Recovery of the ASI extent at 4.5M km2 (or little more, NSIDC September monthly average)? Not way! Very far away of what used to be on the XX Century.

Anyway, today JAXA had a drop that could be more than the 10-year average. Let's wait for Gerontocrat's post. But it is too early to have some conclusion on the 2020 final outcome.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 08:43:07 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 752
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 669
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1421 on: June 07, 2020, 09:02:00 AM »
June 2-6.

2019.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 167
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1422 on: June 07, 2020, 10:46:12 AM »
BTW, 2020 could be a recovery year, this wiill not mean your theory was sound.
I remember that Neven once wrote that we should not use the word "recovery", but just the word "rebound". I am not looking to sound like a gospel too, but I strongly agree with Neven.  ;D

Recovery of the ASI extent at 4.5M km2 (or little more, NSIDC September monthly average)? Not way! Very far away of what used to be on the XX Century.

Anyway, today JAXA had a drop that could be more than the 10-year average. Let's wait for Gerontocrat's post. But it is too early to have some conclusion on the 2020 final outcome.
Doesn't feel like a rebound year to me. A record probably neither. But there is a lot of heat, a very low land snow cover already, and a month of June that so far is favoring melting acceleration in the Pacific half, while Kara and Barents suffered early decimation in May. The CAB is well protected though as almost any year, making a record difficult.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1423 on: June 07, 2020, 10:47:40 AM »
Phoenix, I have a hypothetical question for you :
What would happen if we were to start the melting season in March with no peripheral sea ice, just the Cab volume.
In your opinion, what would the outcome be in September?

Interesting and useful hypothetical, but off topic for this thread.

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 367
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 144
  • Likes Given: 2693
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1424 on: June 07, 2020, 11:13:20 AM »
Welp, so much for this thread.


[edit] oren for Prime Minister  :)
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 09:49:45 PM by HapHazard »

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1425 on: June 07, 2020, 11:40:01 AM »
Yep, that warm air is coming to the Pacific. Beaufort will be warming up in a couple days. Beaufort corner + CAA gets a bit before that. That system will start over the ESS and roll over to the Chukchi -> encompass a lot of the Pacific side. Starts over the ESS in about 36 hours. Reaches Beaufort in about 72, continuous heat along the Pacific + high winds into Chukchi.

The low pressure system doing a decent job opening up the Laptev, Laptev coastal ice looking pretty ugly, bunch of rubble in the Laptev. The entire Eurasia coast is turquoise :D

Cyclone hits Atlantic later today, won't get a very good look with Bremen for a couple days. Might be able to see some on NASA. Svalbard, FJL, Kara tongue going to be interesting to see after, because they all look like crap even now. And see how much of that thick ice gets exported. Cyclone lasts a couple days, then immediately after there's some intense winds + heat that come right "upstream" of the Greenland ice. This is day 4+5 of the 5 day forecasts, that's pretty crazy looking. Right up a ridge.

Just for reference, need something like 50k average daily extent losses to be in 2nd place by June 18. That's definitely possible.

Edit: Freegrass, you should make a Nullschool soon :D
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 11:48:23 AM by Wildcatter »

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1426 on: June 07, 2020, 11:50:03 AM »
Phoenix, I have a hypothetical question for you :
What would happen if we were to start the melting season in March with no peripheral sea ice, just the Cab volume.
In your opinion, what would the outcome be in September?

Interesting and useful hypothetical, but off topic for this thread.

I apologize and will move it to the DHACSOO thread

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1960
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1427 on: June 07, 2020, 11:53:20 AM »
I have moved Phorenix's post to the "PIOMAS 2020 September Prediction" thread he started recently.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3117.0.html

pleun feel free to continue the discussion there. Your hypothetical question is excellent.

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1428 on: June 07, 2020, 01:41:26 PM »
I have to admit, the forecasts are a little less ice friendly than they were, similar pattern that they were showing but in the medium term, the low is now projected to head more near Svalbard rather than Greenland and perhaps towards the Beaufort therefore more high pressure forming on the Pacific side of the basin.

Still think for the large part, the heat for the ESS and Chukchi is quite brief even if temperatures at upper heights don't show that because the flow gets cut off and the winds turn slacke. Also whilst the Beaufort high does get eroded away and pressure drops with some cooler air, I do accept it looks increasingly likely this could be a brief affair with the high reforming again.

Despite the weather, the ice condition on the Russian side of the basin is a concern, lack of fast ice, lot of rubble type ice and that huge polyna that is getting bigger from the Siberian islands, only 2014 had anything similar and we all know how far open water reached then. Also at least in 2014, the ESS was filled with lots of fast ice so slow melt was almost guaranteed, not the case this year.

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1429 on: June 07, 2020, 08:04:09 PM »
Looking at all the data and imagery currently available I suspect that we're in for cliff of some kind.


Things look primed in many places and the upcoming weatherforecast is not boding well to change that.


I think that one of the main mistakes many of us do and that causes unncessery noise about things that we generally agree, is to add a time stap to upcoming events while at times there are huge delays and gaps between when events become visible at the horizon and until they ultimately happen. If we are building groups that predict the same but for today, tomorrow and each day of the upcoming 10 days, we see things coming but lose too much energy to get it right with the time.


For example if we all agree that we are heading towards a BOE it does not REALLY matter whether it will be during the next 5 or the next 10 years and by no means does it matter in which year exacty.


The reasons remain the same as well as the catastrophic final result of the entire process remain the same and the fact that it will be TOO short term also remains the same.


Sublime_Rime

  • New ice
  • Posts: 40
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1430 on: June 07, 2020, 08:11:38 PM »
12z GFS showing HP ridge across the Pacific side moving into western CAB from d5 to end of run, strengthening to >1035 by day 10. I know this is far out but the Euro 00z also shows a more modest ridging moving over a similar area. To my eyes the 12z GFS sets up a pretty disastrous dipole going into the solstice, and I'm eager to see if 12z Euro converges towards that as well. I'm not going to post the pics because it's too far out to get people excited for yet, maybe Friv can have that honor 😉

Update: 12z Euro seems to split the HP in two once it starts on d5-6, and floods the western arctic with heat nonetheless. Will be very interesting to see if this long-term trend continues in the models. Seems like it may represent the winning out of the dipole in the two patterns Friv alluded to, after the LP-dominating pattern had its go. We'll see...
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 09:16:37 PM by Sublime_Rime »
Max
Know thyself
Here to learn and connect in these wondrous and quickly changing times.

Steerpike

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1431 on: June 07, 2020, 10:34:14 PM »
I think 2012 can teach us a lot and perhaps we need to investigate more what happened that year. From a very high maximum extent to a remarkably low record minimum (a record still held). Up to now I've assumed it was the GAC in late summer, but something extraordinary happened between 4th and 13th June as well. As Juan C Garcia pointed out in the Extent thread, there was an average daily loss of 126K km2 over those 9 days.

Looking for clues I came across this in the NSIDC report from July 2012. Melt ponds started around the average date, ice at start of the period was thicker than normal, then boom. The report seems to put it down to sunshine, high temperatures (presumably WAA) and foggy nights (high humidity?).

Thoughts?
I am going to bed now, but thinking about it, there was not ASIF that year, but Neven was writing continuously in his ASI Blog. Excellent place to look for information:

https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/index.html

[Back to topic]


Neven's blog suggests the steep fall in sea ice extent in June 2012 might have been the result of the 'easy ice' clearing out following an unusually large maximum that year. This makes sense, and is a factor that muddies the waters any year we see shallow falls when we expect steeper or vice versa.

To my mind there are two factors that will particularly come into play this year, One is the relatively large clear out of MYI through the Fram and Barents over winter. I think this will result in a severe Laptev bite, perhaps extending across the pole. The other factor is the unusually warm conditions over Siberia this spring, partly due to the low snow cover on land. This will hit the ESS, Laptev and (as we are seeing) Kara. This will also help extend the Laptev bite.

Conversely though, I think the Beaufort sea ice may be even more resilient than last year, and the Canadian Archipelago/Nares hold up for longer than usual.

S.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1432 on: June 07, 2020, 11:36:48 PM »
YES

YES

YES

YES!!!!!!!



THE EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BUILT UP A HUGE ORIGINAL DIPOLE OH MY GOD THIS WOULD BE THE BIG JUGGERNAUT!!!!
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1615
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1433 on: June 07, 2020, 11:40:41 PM »
Freegrass, you should make a Nullschool soon :D
Your wish is my command Wildcatter. I've been having some serious problems with my family lately, so I haven't been online much these last few days.

To catch up, I've added the last 24 hours as well.

That storm in the Barents sea shifted again, so Fram export is back. And the CAA seems be getting its first heat of the season, as is the Chukchi.

That Lincoln plug held. Now I'm curious to see if that CAB low will disperse the ice.

Enjoy!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 500
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1434 on: June 08, 2020, 12:42:18 AM »
Thanks for the good moderation, Oren. Body surfing in Hawaii and a life of work on scientific predictions has taught me humility. This year appears to be very similar to previous years of this decade at this date. There is a very narrow range of sea ice extent for the calendar date that has been followed in recent years for the next six weeks of June and July and this year is no exception.
 
The loss of Arctic sea ice extent and volume has taken place in steps or jumps, not a smooth line. It doesn't look like this is the year for the next jump, but I have been surprised before. There will be no "recovery" but I wouldn't be surprised if extent and volume this September are higher than last September. That would be consistent with natural random variability in a trend of long-term decline.

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1435 on: June 08, 2020, 12:53:55 AM »
YES

YES

YES

YES!!!!!!!



THE EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BUILT UP A HUGE ORIGINAL DIPOLE OH MY GOD THIS WOULD BE THE BIG JUGGERNAUT!!!!

But perhaps a word of caution though, the ECM in those last 2 runs does develop a shallow trough within the dipole so surely this would bring more cloud cover I would of thought? The GFS however does not and some runs you have to say don't bode well for ice retention.

No denying though, from a cold low and the outlook looking fairly favourable, the outlook strongly suggests the Beaufort high returning and a dipole of some sorts potentially developing. Interesting times.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1436 on: June 08, 2020, 02:05:57 AM »
YES

YES

YES

YES!!!!!!!



THE EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BUILT UP A HUGE ORIGINAL DIPOLE OH MY GOD THIS WOULD BE THE BIG JUGGERNAUT!!!!

But perhaps a word of caution though, the ECM in those last 2 runs does develop a shallow trough within the dipole so surely this would bring more cloud cover I would of thought? The GFS however does not and some runs you have to say don't bode well for ice retention.

No denying though, from a cold low and the outlook looking fairly favourable, the outlook strongly suggests the Beaufort high returning and a dipole of some sorts potentially developing. Interesting times.

Yes it does.

That would hamper the all out solar party a bit.

Could bring some light rain showers tho
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1437 on: June 08, 2020, 02:23:33 AM »
It's way out there and clearly not reliable but damn the 12z GFS is nasty.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1438 on: June 08, 2020, 06:30:00 AM »
Geez. I haven't looked at the longer-term models today, but even the 5-day is setting the stage for some big melt days. Just things going on everywhere.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a dipole, or even strong winds/transpolar drift relatively soon, given we know anti-cyclonic circulation usually dominates the arctic ("beaufort high"), and the pervasiveness of that low-pressure system. Sooner or later there's going to be a battle. After the next 4-5 days, if one shows up, yikes. Then the longer-term forecast.

With the heat coming in to the Pacific, I wonder if a strong Beaufort high ends up melt-ponding some of that front. The air coming is warm/moist, then a beaufort high coming in over it. With everything else going on, there only needs to be about 45-47k daily losses until June 18 for 2nd place, 2016 being in first. We'd likely reach that.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1439 on: June 08, 2020, 07:32:09 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The DMI 80N shows the temp curve remaining below 0C. We seem to dodge the bullet of a prolonged peak on the front end.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 223
  • Likes Given: 280
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1440 on: June 08, 2020, 11:21:02 AM »
925 mb temp anomalies for May 1- June 5 in the selected years 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020. 
   Just a couple thoughts as I avoid this thread and really only concentrate on RAMMB, and its ability to tell a story about the quality of the ice, which is oft overlooked for quantitative side.
   In past years with early opening of the Beaufort it was due to transport, not melt. The gyre is basically dead as A-team has been saying for years.  It's likely rained quite a bit there, as well as large swaths of the arctic, in my humble opinion.
   Area and extent numbers tend to "breath" during a season, sometimes because of sensors being fooled, sometimes by the vagaries of weather.  Extrapolating out using recent short term data has the ability to lead one astray.
  I'll sit back and watch, because there's a lot to learn in each season.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1615
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1441 on: June 08, 2020, 01:43:35 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

I've made another one with temperature today because I'm stuck with Esther Phillips in my head now... This is what I meant with my question if the models are underestimating the weather due to particle reduction. Where did that High suddenly come from? There was no sign of it less than a day ago...  ???
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 500
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1442 on: June 08, 2020, 02:02:47 PM »
Thanks, Jay, that comparison of years is impressive. That NOAA site has the capability of subtracting one year's anomalies from another which would also be interesting. The heat in the Beaufort this spring compared to 2012 was impressive.

For the past 2 years there has been a very rapid collapse of the polar vortex and a push of cold air out of the Arctic combined with a transfer of momentum to the jet stream over the Pacific ocean. Stratospheric polar vortex end warmings may be intensifying bringing on rapid warming in May.

It's going to take scientists years to study all the phenomena we have seen in the Arctic the last 2 years. The reduction in particulates this spring was a one time experiment that will not be repeated. We should bear this uncertaintly in mind when we attempt to make predictions.

FYI, the strongly positive AO this winter weakened the Beaufort gyre, but it was pretty strong the previous year. What we are seeing, apparently, is the destabilization of long established patterns in the Arctic. That makes prediction harder.

Davidsf

  • New ice
  • Posts: 35
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 331
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1443 on: June 08, 2020, 02:55:02 PM »
Thank you for the data you share FG. Hoping things improve for your family

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1615
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1444 on: June 08, 2020, 03:52:20 PM »
Thank you David! But I don't think things will ever improve again with my family. That's why I just decided to cut ties with them. I'm done feeling miserable...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 761
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 294
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1445 on: June 08, 2020, 04:15:14 PM »
Yes thanks Jay.

Here are the dmi n80 graphs for those years also, for comparison. With the May to June 5 period highlighted in the box. 

With all the usual caveats, (925 hPa is not surface and DMI n80 is heavily weighted to the pole etc etc.) I think the DMI charts are quite broadly similar in that they show 2019 and 2020 straying well beyond the green line mean, just as the 925 hPa charts show lots of red in the centre for those 2 years.

The 2016 925 hPa chart shows the great heat emerging over the Chukchi, but the DMI 2016 graph does not pick this up because it was at too low a latitude.   

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 354
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 344
  • Likes Given: 766
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1446 on: June 08, 2020, 04:59:24 PM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The DMI 80N shows the temp curve remaining below 0C. We seem to dodge the bullet of a prolonged peak on the front end.
   DMI 80+N temp chart is observations not forecast.  And a biased one at that.  Moreover, during melt season the surface temperature is essentially capped near the freeze/thaw point as energy goes into melting ice not raising air temperature.  Thus even during a strong period of melt those temps will stay near freezing as long as there is still widespread ice to melt.

925 mb temp anomalies for May 1- June 5 in the selected years 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020. 

     Thanks JayW - the 2020 anomaly is stronger than what I expected.  As Niall cautioned, I don't know how closely the 925hPa correlates with surface impact, but seeing the big dark blob of red for 2020 really makes me wonder about the current preconditioning state of the ice, and what that suggests is coming, as igs noted upthread about a potential cliff. 

     I agree that qualitative condition deserves more attention.  I suppose thickness and concentration serve as qualitative metrics.  But thickness is intermittent and concentration is about relative measures of surface coverage not the physical state of the ice.  I'm wondering if there are other qualitative measures, such as a measure of ice continuity and pack integrity.  Perhaps an index that goes from 1 for completely solid continuous ice to near 0 for completely fractured rubble.  Is there anything like that?  I also haven't seen a melt pond roundup for May yet.   
« Last Edit: June 09, 2020, 02:19:03 PM by Glen Koehler »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1615
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1447 on: June 08, 2020, 05:28:58 PM »
I think the best way to find out the current state of the ice is by looking at it on Worldview Glen. This is what it looks like close to the pole right now.  :'(
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 500
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1448 on: June 08, 2020, 06:03:48 PM »
NOAA's OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) anomaly map for the past week does not support the assertion that the Arctic is foggier or cloudier than normal for this time of year. In fact, it supports the opposite conclusion. The Beaufort sea region has been sunnier and warmer than normal and has radiated more heat than normal back out to space in the longwave bands.

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2751
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1242
  • Likes Given: 247
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1449 on: June 08, 2020, 07:31:46 PM »
Worldview terra modis comparison of the Beaufort from 2010-2020, jul7.  https://go.nasa.gov/30nc9pM
Some very light cloud cover yesterday. High extent but not many large MYI floes this year.
click to play