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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1450 on: June 08, 2020, 08:29:14 PM »
SMOS pixel count by Steven, which for me is the best June Cliff indicator, is totally flat.
Let's see how it goes in the next 20 days.

Just like last year, I will be running a pixel counting algorithm on the SMOS images.  The beige pixel counting graph will be updated daily:



https://www.dropbox.com/s/fl2xs6aeop3ioen/SMOS_beige_pixels.png

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1451 on: June 08, 2020, 09:38:17 PM »
Glenn last year or maybe the year before someone came up with categories to describe the ice. I don't remember all of them but they were a good collection of description categories based on visible from satellite categories. They varied from a solid ice sheet to fine gravel. I wish I could remember what they were. I think they would be useful if someone with too much time on their hands characterized each region. Unfortunately I am not aware of anyone having done that. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1452 on: June 08, 2020, 09:44:27 PM »
Sea ice extent is on a track that's almost exactly the same as every other year since 2015.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1453 on: June 09, 2020, 03:23:21 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The DMI 80N shows the temp curve remaining below 0C. We seem to dodge the bullet of a prolonged peak on the front end.


Patience is a virtue, give it another 5-10 days and the public opinion will turn again based on short term events.


Fact is that if the sun doesn't hide completely and very soon we're in for nasty surprises.


That DMI chart at this time of the year is close to useless IMO.


Wildcatter

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1454 on: June 09, 2020, 05:26:38 AM »

Patience is a virtue, give it another 5-10 days and the public opinion will turn again based on short term events.


Yes, in the next 10 days, it'll likely become apparent to all that we're in for a unique melting season.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1455 on: June 09, 2020, 05:59:26 AM »

Patience is a virtue, give it another 5-10 days and the public opinion will turn again based on short term events.


Yes, in the next 10 days, it'll likely become apparent to all that we're in for a unique melting season.

Starting today: "it'll likely become apparent to all that we're in for a unique melting season.".
Because we are in a unique melting season.  :o

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 8th, 2020:
     10,388,040 km2, an almost century drop of -99,327 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1456 on: June 09, 2020, 06:40:52 AM »
The models do keep showing some very toasty air the next few days.

Then immediately build a large ridge.  Strength depends on which model.


But they sure as hell won't give up the damn vortex over GIS.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1457 on: June 09, 2020, 10:19:54 AM »
A bit of fast ice breakup today, in both the ESS and Laptev sea

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1458 on: June 09, 2020, 10:48:29 AM »

Patience is a virtue, give it another 5-10 days and the public opinion will turn again based on short term events.


Yes, in the next 10 days, it'll likely become apparent to all that we're in for a unique melting season.
If the long term forecast holds, yes, we are in big trouble. But the forecast can't even get it right for the next 3 days. So let's just wait and see what happens...
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1459 on: June 09, 2020, 11:03:04 AM »
June 4-8.

2019.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1460 on: June 09, 2020, 11:03:34 AM »
Judah Cohen's take

"For Arctic sea ice overall, it does look like the trajectory is similar to other recent summers (with the minimum extent between 4 and 5 million of squared kilometers).  I think this is true as long as high pressure stays on the periphery of the Arctic such as Greenland, Scandinavia, Siberia and Alaska with a center of low pressure in the Central Arctic as predicted by the CFS.  If the center of high pressure moves closer to the North Pole then the Arctic sea ice minimum could take a run at the record wo of 2012."

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1461 on: June 09, 2020, 11:59:00 AM »
Judah Cohen's take

"For Arctic sea ice overall, it does look like the trajectory is similar to other recent summers (with the minimum extent between 4 and 5 million of squared kilometers).  I think this is true as long as high pressure stays on the periphery of the Arctic such as Greenland, Scandinavia, Siberia and Alaska with a center of low pressure in the Central Arctic as predicted by the CFS.  If the center of high pressure moves closer to the North Pole then the Arctic sea ice minimum could take a run at the record wo of 2012."

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

That's far too simplistic though, 2012 and 2016 showed that persistent low pressure can be just as bad for the ice as a warm dipole, the affects of it though is felt later on in the melt season.

High pressure may be less bad if its situated over the pole but there is coolish air trapped in it, the flow is slack and there is some troughing at lower latitudes. Also high pressure after mid August in a melt season is perhaps better for the ice because air temperatures may cool down more in clear skies when the sun sets.

I'll be looking out for dispersion in the ice pack in the next month or so, 2012 and 2016 had alot of dispersion which no doubt affected the final extent results. A more compact ice pack would be harder to break down but of course SSTS could play a part and they were quite high last year hence extent dropped as low as it did last year.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1462 on: June 09, 2020, 12:57:07 PM »

That's far too simplistic though,

Yes. I agree with Arctic melt there are many complex factors at play. In fairness to Judah, I have only cropped out a small section at what he has to say. He is an atmospheric scientist - so bound to be focused on all things atmospheric, all the way to the stratosphere. 

But going back to this year, from an atmospheric POV, I think worst set up this year would be a dipole situation with high pressure centred around the Chukchi and low pressure around the Kara fanning warm southerly winds from central Asia all along the Russian coast, melting the thinning ice in the Russian seas and cramming what remains over to the American side-with also increased Fram export and through Nares (after it breaks up). That situation could see large drops in extent. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1463 on: June 09, 2020, 01:19:01 PM »
June 4-8.

The link to the prior year comparison is a wonderful feature Aluminum. We see that Beaufort Sea is now making a move toward expansion of open sea, but the contrast with 2019 shows a staggering difference.

And then there is the part of Beaufort which we can't see, which is that the parts which are ice covered are twice as thick this year as last year at the same time.

I wouldn't consider it likely yet, but there is a possibility that Beaufort Sea leaves a few hundred km3 of ice at the minimum. The impact of insolation is much reduced with so much less open sea during peak insolation intervals and thicker ice which doesn't allow the incoming EMR to penetrate through. 
« Last Edit: June 09, 2020, 06:47:10 PM by Phoenix »

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1464 on: June 09, 2020, 06:17:18 PM »
I don't understand this season. AT ALL!
I'm out of guesses as to what's going on in the system at large... :/


I hope now it's clear what i meant.


Somehow we are dealing with a new normal since 2016 and future outliers excempt, we just have to wait a bit once things look weird et voilà there we go again. This year alone we've seen this several time.

So for now things look more like logical again (who knows for how long)


BTW sooner or later we could well see freefall instead of an intermediate plateau, only a matter of time over the years to come.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1465 on: June 09, 2020, 07:58:15 PM »
      Based on Climate Reanalyzer graphs of GFS, the Beaufort Sea ice is in for a rough week with surface temps, clear skies and precipitable water incursions all pointing towards accelerated melt. 
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.prcp-tcld-topo (light blue = clear sky above ice)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.pwtr
« Last Edit: June 10, 2020, 04:20:11 AM by Glen Koehler »

VeganPeaceForAll

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1466 on: June 09, 2020, 08:59:38 PM »
Almost all of the Arctic basin now is above its freezing temperature (-1.8) for the Average Daytime Air Temperature. Everything outside blue lines on picture is above 0 degrees. Almost all area covered by light-green blue colour (excluding area closest to Greenland) on Pacific side of Arctic is -1.66 degrees or higher temperature.

Picture from NASA Eyes On Earth (application for Windows) attached.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1467 on: June 10, 2020, 07:03:10 AM »
00Z GFS ---- HOUR 48 -- 240(24 HOUR INCREMENTS

TOP IMAGE -  500MB HEIGHTS & SURFACE PRESSURE

BOTTON IMAGE -  850MB TEMPERATURES

CLICK TO ANIMATE...

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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1468 on: June 10, 2020, 12:53:45 PM »
What's left of once tropical storm Christobal is scheduled to make an appearance in the southern portion of Hudson Bay tonight. Not a hugely impactful event, but how often does a weather system that makes the hurricane season thread reach into sea ice territory ?


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1469 on: June 10, 2020, 01:04:27 PM »
What's left of once tropical storm Christobal is scheduled to make an appearance in the southern portion of Hudson Bay tonight. Not a hugely impactful event, but how often does a weather system that makes the hurricane season thread reach into sea ice territory ?
Quite frequently I should think. Many (most?) hurricanes end up as cyclones in the North Atlantic, and some of these continue in over the Arctic Ocean.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1470 on: June 10, 2020, 01:36:15 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Not looking so disastrous for the ice anymore. I think we dodged a bullet here...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1471 on: June 10, 2020, 02:16:03 PM »
 .. but the machine gun is fully loaded and the trigger finger itching . Dodging or not dodging a bullet now may not matter much as the season progresses . The next 16 days of gfs do not look good for ice preservation imho ..b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1472 on: June 10, 2020, 02:33:34 PM »
The forecasts have been so erratic these last few days. It could all just blow over, or not. We'll see.
I didn't even want to make a forecast yesterday because I wanted to wait and see what this dipole would do. And it looks like it won't do much.

But it's true... There's something in the air for the coming days... Let's hope the weather gods are kind this year! The ice is in such a bad shape that a serious storm would be disastrous...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1473 on: June 10, 2020, 04:08:25 PM »
It's time for 2020 and 2019 to race.

2019 hit it's 35 day streak of century losses on June 11. 2020 seems to be gearing up at the same time. Adjusting for the extra day of leap year, we're at the moment where 2019 took off.

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1474 on: June 10, 2020, 05:26:58 PM »
The forecasts have been so erratic these last few days. It could all just blow over, or not. We'll see.
I didn't even want to make a forecast yesterday because I wanted to wait and see what this dipole would do. And it looks like it won't do much.

But it's true... There's something in the air for the coming days... Let's hope the weather gods are kind this year! The ice is in such a bad shape that a serious storm would be disastrous...


While forecasts have indeed been a bit erratic they most had in common that the temps adjacent to the arctic ocean are above 20C in a lot of places and even though air-temps drop towards slightly above zero over the ice, there are still vast regions with temps up to 5-10C and of course the cooling effect means melt.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1475 on: June 10, 2020, 05:36:45 PM »
While forecasts have indeed been a bit erratic they most had in common that the temps adjacent to the arctic ocean are above 20C in a lot of places and even though air-temps drop towards slightly above zero over the ice, there are still vast regions with temps up to 5-10C and of course the cooling effect means melt.
True, but I was talking about destructive winds for the ice. Yesterday that dipole looked like it could do some serious damage to the central CAB, but today it's looking a lot better for the ice. If we have a storm now ripping the ice apart, that wouldn't bode well for the rest of the season. If the CAB can hold, then there's still hope my prediction to be beat 2012 will be wrong.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1476 on: June 10, 2020, 07:47:08 PM »
My theory that belongs to me is that when the temperature is above freezing ice melts; and the more it is above freezing and the longer that that persists, the more ice melts.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1477 on: June 10, 2020, 08:15:39 PM »
My theory that belongs to me is that when the temperature is above freezing ice melts; and the more it is above freezing and the longer that that persists, the more ice melts.
That's the most ridiculous theory I've ever heard...  ::) 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1478 on: June 10, 2020, 08:24:06 PM »
My theory that belongs to me is that when the temperature is above freezing ice melts; and the more it is above freezing and the longer that that persists, the more ice melts.

How would it know that it's above freezing? Can it read the thermometer or what? I hate when people anthropomorphize water like that.  ;D

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1479 on: June 10, 2020, 08:45:32 PM »
My theory that belongs to me is that when the temperature is above freezing ice melts; and the more it is above freezing and the longer that that persists, the more ice melts.

Very interesting theory. I shall employ the scientific method & test your theory with some ice cubes in a Negroni.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1480 on: June 10, 2020, 08:54:51 PM »
Looks like too me the models are toning up the dipole, warm Stright line winds from the Pacific to the Atlantic. The troughing that develops within the dipole is getting less and less which means the dipole will be stronger and warmer air going towards the pole.

The Arctic better make the most of the largely cloudier and chillier conditions because its all set to change.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1481 on: June 10, 2020, 09:14:06 PM »
My theory that belongs to me is that when the temperature is above freezing ice melts; and the more it is above freezing and the longer that that persists, the more ice melts.

Very interesting theory. I shall employ the scientific method & test your theory with some ice cubes in a Negroni.

Perhaps you should do a little comparative chemistry.  Perhaps compare the melt rate in different liquids?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1482 on: June 10, 2020, 09:16:20 PM »
quantifying the effects of mixing on melting?  ;)

Here is an overlay of uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh concentration onto gmrt bathymetry from jun3-9.
First to note is the probable rain highlighting individual floes along the Nansen basin close to Severnaya Zemlya, somewhat masking the already present lower concentration there. Low concentration ice continues around the 'top' of the basin, probably due to upwelling of incoming atlantic water. Keen eyes will also spot more low concentration ice where the basin meets the Lomonosov Ridge, probably also due to upwelling.
In the Kara Sea the low concentration ice above the St Anna trough has been visible since may10

Sea ice concentration has been contrast enhanced a little to allow it to show over the bathy.
0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to transparent.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2020, 10:56:47 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1483 on: June 10, 2020, 10:31:55 PM »
quantifying the effects of mixing on melting?
I'd say almost impossible to quantify without an accurate understanding of how much heat is distributed in the water column.

Most of that area - Barents region - is relatively shallow - only slightly deeper overall than the shallows along the Laptev and ESS.

I'd say judging from the storm squatting in it right now, the Barents is about to get hammered back to 2016/2018 extent numbers.  Likely the only ice left will be that continuing to be exported from the CAB.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1484 on: June 10, 2020, 10:50:23 PM »
quantifying the effects of mixing on melting?

Here is an overlay of uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh concentration onto gmrt bathymetry from jun3-9.
First to note is the probable rain highlighting individual floes along the Nansen basin close to Severnaya Zemlya, somewhat masking the already present lower concentration there. Low concentration ice continues around the 'top' of the basin, probably due to upwelling of incoming atlantic water. Keen eyes will also spot more low concentration ice where the basin meets the Lomonosov Ridge, probably also due to upwelling.
In the Kara Sea the low concentration ice above the St Anna trough

Thanks for the slick content uniquorn. Curious what might be causing incoming atlantic water to be upwelling. Initial impression is that the saltier water is going down when it has the opportunity.


uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1485 on: June 11, 2020, 12:00:08 AM »
Curious what might be causing incoming atlantic water to be upwelling. Initial impression is that the saltier water is going down when it has the opportunity.
replied here

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1486 on: June 11, 2020, 01:16:53 AM »
Not looking so disastrous for the ice anymore. I think we dodged a bullet here...
I need to take this back. It's looking much worse again on the new forecast. And I'm just talking about the wind here! I'm not talking about the temperature. But I stand corrected. It's looking bad... That's why I'll shut up now on the forecasts and leave the interpretation to those who know what they are talking about...

I posted a new forecast with Wind @ Surface in the Nullschool thread.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1487 on: June 11, 2020, 02:34:17 AM »
The ice is set up to get massacred.

Albedo has nose dived over a huge portion of Arctic basin and in the CAB and CAA
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1488 on: June 11, 2020, 02:41:12 AM »
Not looking so disastrous for the ice anymore. I think we dodged a bullet here...
I need to take this back. It's looking much worse again on the new forecast. And I'm just talking about the wind here! I'm not talking about the temperature. But I stand corrected. It's looking bad... That's why I'll shut up now on the forecasts and leave the interpretation to those who know what they are talking about...

I posted a new forecast with Wind @ Surface in the Nullschool thread.

That takes a real man.

The models are really bad.

Just look at the modis image above and you can see the only area not being crushed is under that vortex.

You can see the current heights, pressure, and temps aren't brutal.

But the response over the ice is relative to albedo.

Thanks to the boiling May things easily broke down.

And the models all show much warmer widespread sun on the way and it's already bad
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1489 on: June 11, 2020, 02:48:56 AM »
This is by far the worst stretch for the ice going from mid-May through today since 2012.

And the weather forecast cements that.

Infact, 2012 got a huge 8-10 day break from the dipole from roughly the 15th-24th.

I am very excited.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1490 on: June 11, 2020, 10:52:24 AM »
June 6-10.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1491 on: June 11, 2020, 11:58:11 AM »
This is by far the worst stretch for the ice going from mid-May through today since 2012.

And the weather forecast cements that.

Infact, 2012 got a huge 8-10 day break from the dipole from roughly the 15th-24th.

I am very excited.

2012 did see a spell of low pressure but that perhaps seemingly caused its own problems as it started to cause the ice to diverge which as we know had consequences later on in the melt season.

It's why I keep saying, these days for the ice it's not as simple as high pressure is bad for the ice, low pressure is good however I do accept a dipole is not good for the ice because of the warmth and winds. There was forecast of shallow troughing which may of stopped the dipole set up forming strongly but that has more or less gone now.

Crumb of comfort I would take, at least the dipole set up may prevent dispersion forming at lower latitudes but of course as others say, melt ponding may be more widespread.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1492 on: June 11, 2020, 03:39:27 PM »
I posted two forecasts today on the Nullschool thread.
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Neven

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1493 on: June 11, 2020, 04:34:44 PM »
I received this in a mail from David Schröder, the scientist whose melt pond fraction model I would write a lot about on the ASIB:

Quote
Just submitted this year's prediction:

We predict the September ice extent 2020 to be 3.8 (3.3-4.3) million km2. This is the lowest prediction we have made based on spring melt pond fraction. The likehood is around 30% that this September extent will be a new minimum record. In our model simulation since 1979, May 2020 has the highest mean melt pond fraction for May including some unprecedented melt pond formation in the Central Arctic during 15-18 May when air temperature exceeded 0deg C.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1494 on: June 11, 2020, 05:00:36 PM »
Interesting! Thanks, David, for letting us know! :)

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1495 on: June 11, 2020, 06:03:18 PM »
Average anomaly for 3-5-10 days (forecast).

VaughnAn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1496 on: June 11, 2020, 07:59:37 PM »
Average anomaly for 3-5-10 days (forecast).
That temperature forecast looks ominous. 

Also, thank you for posting these animations.  I appreciate easily viewing these on a regular basis.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 06:37:00 AM by VaughnAn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1497 on: June 11, 2020, 09:16:53 PM »
The post by neven is exactly right.

Also while diversion of the ice can be very helpful for melt.

Right now getting as much solar as possible through the 20th of July will have the most impact.

I don't even know what to say.  It's been truly since 2012 since we will have had this kind of melt momentum.

The unique part is GIS and the endless vortex.

The other thing is the Eurasian side vortex is strong and is forecasted to stay strong while the NA/Beaufort ridge gets much bigger.

This will not only bring major Sun to a large part of the inner basin but a major wind gradient.

This is AMAZING....

During peak INSOLATION...

Might have to click to animate...

On the 850mb temps by day 3-4 the overwhelming warmth floods the basin and the vortex canopy shrinks to only cover the Kara, part of the laptev, and the Atlantic/barents sector.

This is the classic ice DECIMATION pattern.



« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 09:28:01 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1498 on: June 12, 2020, 01:14:34 AM »
The forecast really is looking bad for the ice Friv, but I have to repeat what I said before, that we really are dodging a bullet. And by that I mean that the strength of the forecasted wind in that dipole has gone down again today. It is now below 40 km/h again. Above that is really destructive for the ice I have learned, and that's what I meant with it before. I probably should have been more clear about that. Everything else in the forecast looks bad, so many more bullets, but not having strong winds in that dipole makes it not as bad as it could have been with wind above 40 km/h over the CAB. That would have ripped the ice appart I think. Am I wrong about that?

Here's what it looks like on Nullschool.

Edit: Many more destructive bullets in the gun though...  :'(
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 01:39:00 AM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1499 on: June 12, 2020, 01:41:38 AM »
Everything looks terrible for the ice but it has before and little melt has resulted. I think it will be another few years yet before decimation. This year will probably be 2nd or 3rd JAXA but ice melt will probably slow in the coming days just to confuse us all again