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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1500 on: June 12, 2020, 03:02:47 AM »
Everything looks terrible for the ice but it has before and little melt has resulted.

I think, Armageddon's Blade is ready and possibly waited for this message. :)

earth.nullschool.net, 16.06.2020 00:00 UTC, 850 hPa.

1. A WAA near the Lena Delta. Temperature is 7.4°C. Doesn't sound outstanding. But wind speed is 90 km/h.
2. What about water vapor? 29.72 kg/m2.
3. Though it's just one point. How big is this WAA? It's everywhere.
4. Weak clouds don't provide good protection from the Sun.

wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1501 on: June 12, 2020, 03:11:15 AM »
Worldview today, shows Barrow strait starting to break up.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1502 on: June 12, 2020, 07:12:01 AM »
It is now below 40 km/h again. Above that is really destructive for the ice I have learned, ...

Interesting and sounds plausible. Where did you learn this?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1503 on: June 12, 2020, 07:40:52 AM »
Everything looks terrible for the ice but it has before and little melt has resulted.

I think, Armageddon's Blade is ready and possibly waited for this message. :)

earth.nullschool.net, 16.06.2020 00:00 UTC, 850 hPa.

1. A WAA near the Lena Delta. Temperature is 7.4°C. Doesn't sound outstanding. But wind speed is 90 km/h.
2. What about water vapor? 29.72 kg/m2.
3. Though it's just one point. How big is this WAA? It's everywhere.
4. Weak clouds don't provide good protection from the Sun.

This massive event seems to be originating in a string of low pressure areas that have following a track from the Atlantic towards the Kara and in over the coast. A large high-pressure area over the Russian mainland then seems to push them back in over the Arctic where they deepen rapidly and possibly fuse.

The attached gif is something of an experiment, downloaded from Tropical Tidbits GFS and cropped to make the file smaller. The gif starts at -72 hours, stops for 2 seconds at the current state of things, and five seconds at the end.

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JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1504 on: June 12, 2020, 10:54:19 AM »
, but not having strong winds in that dipole makes it not as bad as it could have been with wind above 40 km/h over the CAB. That would have ripped the ice appart I think. Am I wrong about that?


I'm not sure it's so simple.  When discussing wind power, strength matters, but fetch and especially persistence matter.  It also matters what's is blowing over.  Wind over cohesive and tightly packed ice floes will not have the same effect as over dispersed floes and open water.  The forecasts show a prolonged episode of wind generally blowing from the ESS/Laptev towards Greenland.  As this occurs, I'd expect the ESS and especially the Laptev to open up further.  The smaller floes will be moved faster than the pack, so they will begin to pile up against the main pack eventually, creating a bit of a "melt front" as the open water expands in the Laptev.  Most of the melting would occur at this front as its increasingly exposed to open seas, while transporting the larger floes in the direction of Greenland.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1505 on: June 12, 2020, 11:03:04 AM »
It is now below 40 km/h again. Above that is really destructive for the ice I have learned, ...
Interesting and sounds plausible. Where did you learn this?
I've learned that by looking at the ice and Nullschool forecasts all year. When the wind is below 35 km/h there usually isn't much damage to the ice. From 35 to 45, it depends on how long the wind is blowing over the same area and sea ice concentration. Above 45 km/h you start to see damage being inflicted.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 11:32:58 AM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1506 on: June 12, 2020, 11:28:57 AM »
, but not having strong winds in that dipole makes it not as bad as it could have been with wind above 40 km/h over the CAB. That would have ripped the ice appart I think. Am I wrong about that?


I'm not sure it's so simple.  When discussing wind power, strength matters, but fetch and especially persistence matter.  It also matters what's is blowing over.  Wind over cohesive and tightly packed ice floes will not have the same effect as over dispersed floes and open water.  The forecasts show a prolonged episode of wind generally blowing from the ESS/Laptev towards Greenland.  As this occurs, I'd expect the ESS and especially the Laptev to open up further.  The smaller floes will be moved faster than the pack, so they will begin to pile up against the main pack eventually, creating a bit of a "melt front" as the open water expands in the Laptev.  Most of the melting would occur at this front as its increasingly exposed to open seas, while transporting the larger floes in the direction of Greenland.
Hi Jay. Yes, you are absolutely right. Ice thickness and concentration are of course important factors. The thicker and compactor the ice is, the more wind you need to move the ice. Thin ice with lots of open water in between is more vulnerable. I guess I've developed a feel for that over the last year. It's not an exact science...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1507 on: June 12, 2020, 05:43:47 PM »
Everything looks terrible for the ice but it has before and little melt has resulted. I think it will be another few years yet before decimation. This year will probably be 2nd or 3rd JAXA but ice melt will probably slow in the coming days just to confuse us all again


As long as the ice is not less than 20cm thick it always takes some time to see the 2-dimensional results of an ongoing melting process. Considering that there is something like average ice-thicknesses in given regions it will show once of a sudden and the day before it happens there will be many impatient people trying to convince us that what we see is not real or does not have the impact it should.


It will, there are no miracles in physics, there is that much ice and that much melt and once the ice has melted to a certain extent it will disintegrate on a large scale.


All this provided that the weather will not undergo a total change to it's current as well as it's forecasted conditions.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1508 on: June 12, 2020, 05:50:24 PM »
Everything looks terrible for the ice but it has before and little melt has resulted.

I think, Armageddon's Blade is ready and possibly waited for this message. :)

earth.nullschool.net, 16.06.2020 00:00 UTC, 850 hPa.

1. A WAA near the Lena Delta. Temperature is 7.4°C. Doesn't sound outstanding. But wind speed is 90 km/h.
2. What about water vapor? 29.72 kg/m2.
3. Though it's just one point. How big is this WAA? It's everywhere.
4. Weak clouds don't provide good protection from the Sun.

Water vapour has a high enthalpy of vaporisation. That heat can melt approximately 4x it's mass of ice as it condenses. High winds blowing over warm and wet Land is an effective way of transferring heat into the ice. In this case, each 10M3 of air can melt 1M3 of ice.



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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1509 on: June 12, 2020, 08:03:01 PM »
The 12z models and 00z EURO the 12z euro isn't out yet have backed off considerably with the dipole in the long range.

Instead of setting up a full or 3/4 dipole the models slide the Eurasian vortex over the pole/Atlantic side and merge it with the GIS vortex which won't budge.

This keeps the torching over the Pacific half.

It's not a good pattern by any means but it definitely is much better than the entire CAB getting the roast.

This kind of thing is what will keep 2020 from passing 2012 in the end.

We'll see
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1510 on: June 12, 2020, 08:34:18 PM »
The 12z models and 00z EURO the 12z euro isn't out yet have backed off considerably with the dipole in the long range.

Instead of setting up a full or 3/4 dipole the models slide the Eurasian vortex over the pole/Atlantic side and merge it with the GIS vortex which won't budge.

This keeps the torching over the Pacific half.

It's not a good pattern by any means but it definitely is much better than the entire CAB getting the roast.

This kind of thing is what will keep 2020 from passing 2012 in the end.

We'll see
We will.  I find myself wondering though, how much of the moisture getting pulled into that vortex is being translated into rainfall over the western CAB, Barents, Kara and Laptev, and whether it will make up for reduced insolation.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1511 on: June 12, 2020, 08:59:35 PM »
The 12z models and 00z EURO the 12z euro isn't out yet have backed off considerably with the dipole in the long range.

Instead of setting up a full or 3/4 dipole the models slide the Eurasian vortex over the pole/Atlantic side and merge it with the GIS vortex which won't budge.

This keeps the torching over the Pacific half.

It's not a good pattern by any means but it definitely is much better than the entire CAB getting the roast.

This kind of thing is what will keep 2020 from passing 2012 in the end.

We'll see
We will.  I find myself wondering though, how much of the moisture getting pulled into that vortex is being translated into rainfall over the western CAB, Barents, Kara and Laptev, and whether it will make up for reduced insolation.

 If the air is cold enough under the low then its more than likely any PPN will fall as snow I would of thought? Either way, there has been some hints from the models to have that low enter into the basin again which does cut the dipole off but it by no means the ice would of dodged a budget. Low pressure if deep enough can cause dispersion which could cause its own problems down the line. Lots to play for and the outlook could change again.

For now, its a case of watching and seeing how the ice reacts to the dipole, starts off as a moderate dipole but it does strengthen for a time.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1512 on: June 12, 2020, 09:40:32 PM »
Interestingly, the 12Z GFS does show quite a bit of precipitation falling over the CAB, mostly as rain, from late Monday morning through Friday morning. while this low moves in. Surface temps also appear to be above freezing during that entire period over nearly the entire area in question, suggesting that any snow falling would likely melt. This seems to be corroborated by the fact that none of the precipitation shows up as accumulated snow by 156H.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 09:56:40 PM by Sublime_Rime »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1513 on: June 12, 2020, 09:42:20 PM »
Total precip to 156H
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thejazzmarauder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1514 on: June 12, 2020, 11:41:18 PM »
Total precip to 156H
Well that wouldn't be good

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1515 on: June 13, 2020, 12:33:32 AM »
The 12z models and 00z EURO the 12z euro isn't out yet have backed off considerably with the dipole in the long range.

Instead of setting up a full or 3/4 dipole the models slide the Eurasian vortex over the pole/Atlantic side and merge it with the GIS vortex which won't budge.

This keeps the torching over the Pacific half.

It's not a good pattern by any means but it definitely is much better than the entire CAB getting the roast.

This kind of thing is what will keep 2020 from passing 2012 in the end.

We'll see

Yep, we've seen this time and again in the last 8-9 years. It's a pattern and I think part of the reason for this strong +PV tendency has been due to a marked increase in low-level baroclinicity and eddy kinetic energy as the mid-high lats warm faster in summer than the basin proper. It is providing a transient negative feedback by preferentially favoring storms over the basin during the summer months (on the cold side of the jet). This retards melt and slows down the year-to-year summer progression. Of course, eventually the warming signal will overwhelm this, but it may take another 20 years to do so (the occasional year like 2016 nonwithstanding). Eventually, increasing warming over land will cause the warm conveyor belts on these storms to start doing enough damage to offset the shielding effect and destroy ice cover anyways. We may end up seeing a fairly long period of not much change -- followed by a quick transient period to sea-ice free, followed by decoupling of the troposphere from the stratosphere in the autumn and subsequent large hits to winter ice volume recoveries. Nakamura et. al's BoE experiments suggested as such a few years back.

And I suspect 2007 and whatever future year(s) this happens will be seen as the turning points.

If you're looking for ocean-driven signals as well, simply look at the trend of shoaling along the Atlantic-inflow stream and heat content storage coming from the Chukchi. They're pointing to the 2040s as well. Incidentally, this is around the same time aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic begins to show up, too (aragonite undersaturation starts in the 2030s around Antarctica). Full-on ecosystem disruption seems pretty ripe around that time.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 12:39:10 AM by Csnavywx »

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1516 on: June 13, 2020, 01:01:30 AM »
Or it could just be simply weather models trying to predict an outlook and from run to run, there will be some variations on the theme and at other times, the models pick up on a pattern change and stick to it.

As we see from the 18Z GFS run, it did try to sweep the low through the north pole but the blocking high held up and therefore the dipole remains. It just shows how slight changes can make a huge difference.

Although the GFS tends to be warmer than the Euro runs, it is impressive how far into the ice pack the plus 12hpa gets.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1517 on: June 13, 2020, 02:56:59 AM »
        GFS cloud cover forecasts.  Granted these are 9 and 10 day forecasts, but the near-term forecast images show almost as much clear sky.  I just wanted to see what it looked like at peak solstice insolation.  Light blue is clear sky over ice.

         2 hours past solstice hour June 21 at 0Z
http://204.197.0.55/MEmodel/ArcticClouds0Z2020-06-21.png
           Lots of clear sky and insolation over much of the Pacific side and ca. 33% of the entire Arctic Ocean (eyeball estimate).

42 hours later June 22 at 18Z
http://204.197.0.55/MEmodel/ArcticClouds18Z2020-06-22.png
           Even larger area of clear sky, covering ca. 60% of Arctic Ocean.

« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 03:11:22 AM by Glen Koehler »

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1518 on: June 13, 2020, 03:04:04 AM »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1519 on: June 13, 2020, 03:29:05 AM »
      Alternate views of GFS snow depth forecast:  June 12, 18Z
http://204.197.0.55/MEmodel/ArcticSnowCover18Z2020-06-12.png


      Poof!  June 17, 18Z
http://204.197.0.55/MEmodel/ArcticSnowCover18Z2020-06-17.png

 
      The June 17 image also shows good view of dipole.  The positioning looks conducive for clear sky over Pacific side and some ice movement away from the ESS and Laptev Sea into the CAB.  But neither the high pressure or the low pressure system are very strong so wind speed where they meet should not be very strong, thus fairly wide spacing between isobar lines.  (My attempt to interpret the image for those even less familiar with pressure maps than me.  Caveat: I am not a meteorologist, I just play one on the internet). 
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 03:33:09 PM by Glen Koehler »

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1520 on: June 13, 2020, 03:51:46 AM »
This was from Zack yesterday. It confirms what the ASIF meteorology experts were saying. I can not link the animation. I sent a request to Zack to post a link here. But, he might be too busy right now with his PhD work. I think he is probably close to defending his thesis.

If you want to see the animation, go to Twitter and search @ZLabe. Scroll down a little bit and you will find it.

Lots of warm weather means lots of melt ponds forming. Preconditioning for melting was exceptionally high in May.

« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 04:11:38 AM by Rod »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1521 on: June 13, 2020, 05:52:00 AM »
Thanks, Rod. :)

Tweet is at this link >> https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1271218647130763266

BTW, you can download Twitter GIFs with this website >> https://www.savetweetvid.com/downloader
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1522 on: June 13, 2020, 06:34:41 AM »
Thanks for posting that tweet.

I still have no idea what's going on in the Arctic or why the extent stalled so much. This year is a total wildcard. That said, I wonder if there's going to be a "flash point" or something in terms of a lot of ice going all at once. Melt ponds are everywhere given the temperatures in Barrow have been very similar to those along the East Siberian Sea's coast, I suspect this is how the ice that remains there looks. You can zoom in on Worldview you will easily notice the sheer number of melt ponds that have existed over the last 3 days or so (to which it has really not had much cloud cover all month).

A picture's worth a thousand words, really.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1523 on: June 13, 2020, 06:36:02 AM »
Well the last two runs of the GFS have jumped right back to having a major dipole for the entire run.

Well through 240 hours.

Pretty brutal for the ice
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1524 on: June 13, 2020, 07:01:06 AM »
Holy shit, just look at the Lena River Delta...The entire region looks like that and I've just never seen it before. The Hudson Bay was also completely clear today and certainly has less ice than 2019 and 2018.

When I see so many large areas like this, I feel like it's just all going to flash out over a very short time period, but who knows.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1525 on: June 13, 2020, 07:22:46 AM »
Anybody else take a look at the NullSchool forecast for June 17th?

28 C at the coast. The entire pacific half of the arctic at 2+ C.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1526 on: June 13, 2020, 07:32:42 AM »
... zoom in ...

He's still standing there!  ???
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1527 on: June 13, 2020, 07:56:20 AM »
... zoom in ...

He's still standing there!  ???

WOW! The rarest of sightings. We can only hope they're venturing afoot to a brewery since it's Friday and being locking inside for so long is rough
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1528 on: June 13, 2020, 09:01:37 AM »
If EC run verifies we will in a couple of days enter a favorable pattern for ice retention. Should have a decent effect at this melting season.

OTOH, if the GFS model run verifies the Arctic will see a very bad pattern for ice retention.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1529 on: June 13, 2020, 09:08:11 AM »
June 8-12.

2019.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1530 on: June 13, 2020, 09:29:10 AM »
June 8-12.

2019.

When the surface melt is so bad that the satellite thinks there are portions of the laptev fast ice with 0% concentration

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1531 on: June 13, 2020, 10:02:59 AM »
Looking pretty bad for the Laptev in a few of days' time.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1532 on: June 13, 2020, 10:18:12 AM »
The current combined sea ice area in Beaufort and Chukchi is 1,471k km2. Last year at this time, these seas had 1,038k km2. The difference between the two years has expanded in the past week to 433k km2 and is probably close to a peak.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1533 on: June 13, 2020, 10:22:55 AM »

When the surface melt is so bad that the satellite thinks there are portions of the laptev fast ice with 0% concentration

Looks like this via Sentinel (Rendering: return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]). Click to enlarge.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1534 on: June 13, 2020, 10:35:52 AM »
I note the CAA seems resilient this year, with the ice much less blue than in leading melt years. The only sign of trouble atm is relatively early breakup of the fast ice in Prince Regent Inlet, south of the main channel. Hopefully this resilience survives to the end of the season. OTOH the Siberian side looks well-roasted.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1535 on: June 13, 2020, 10:49:51 AM »
If EC run verifies we will in a couple of days enter a favorable pattern for ice retention. Should have a decent effect at this melting season.

OTOH, if the GFS model run verifies the Arctic will see a very bad pattern for ice retention.

Based on the weather patterns since 2013 I'd guess the euro is probably more in line to be correct.

A compromise would be really bad.

The euro isn't that good itself. 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1536 on: June 13, 2020, 01:54:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1537 on: June 13, 2020, 02:26:01 PM »
Ironically the 6Z GFS run has now totally dropped the dipole medium to long term and does not even have a deep low heading through the pole but instead having a smaller low heading towards the Pacific side of the basin. Just shows how volitile the output can be and how the GFS model lack consistency between runs at times.

Nevertheless, shorter term, it's a dipole pattern dominating and one that is going to get warmer and stronger before any sign of the dipole breaking down.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1538 on: June 13, 2020, 03:38:08 PM »
Looking pretty bad for the Laptev in a few of days' time.

Indeed, while the 06Z GFS has largely backed off on the raging dipole in the long term, it makes up for that quite a bit in medium to long term WAA. From Monday to Friday there are markedly high anomalies across virtually the whole basin, especially adjacent to Siberian coast, CAA and Beaufort. Double torching. Then a monster Siberian heatwave takes over in the very uncertain long term. Not to mention quite a bit of rain over the Atlantic/West siberian side. Never a dull moment!
1st and 2nd images show 6Z GFS 850mb temp anomaly and 2m temp, respectively, at what I perceive to be the peak WAA. 3rd shows 7day anomaly forecast for same run.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 03:44:35 PM by Sublime_Rime »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1539 on: June 13, 2020, 06:06:58 PM »
When I look at the forecast, I see a lot of wind blowing in the same direction over the ice. I'm curious to see if this will move the entire ice pack towards the Atlantic side. I think we could see a lot of ice disappear into the Barent and the Fram this week.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1540 on: June 13, 2020, 06:16:06 PM »
Laptev/CAB east of Severnaya Zemlya today, slight contrast adjustment. FYI floes are quite dispersed.
ascat of similar area, day12-164
updated Wipneus regional area, jun12.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 07:53:51 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1541 on: June 13, 2020, 07:28:15 PM »
I've noticed that there is very little fast ice in the East Siberian Sea this year, and what fast ice there is is already breaking up.  How much will this matter for the eventual September sea ice minimum?  How much heat can make its way from the ESS and influence the Central Arctic Basin?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1542 on: June 13, 2020, 07:55:29 PM »
When I look at the forecast, I see a lot of wind blowing in the same direction over the ice. I'm curious to see if this will move the entire ice pack towards the Atlantic side. I think we could see a lot of ice disappear into the Barent and the Fram this week.

This is already happening.


It's not that noticeable but it's happening.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1543 on: June 13, 2020, 08:03:40 PM »
For anyone who doesn't know what a really good pattern for the ice in summer is.

The 12z gem goes there towards the end of the run.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1544 on: June 13, 2020, 11:18:24 PM »
Holy shit, just look at the Lena River Delta...The entire region looks like that and I've just never seen it before. The Hudson Bay was also completely clear today and certainly has less ice than 2019 and 2018.

When I see so many large areas like this, I feel like it's just all going to flash out over a very short time period, but who knows.
Thumb-nail calculations I did once upon a time suggested that daily insolation this time of the year provided sufficient energy to melt about 10CM of ice a day.

Now, that's idealized, and in practical terms, the albedo is going to toss about half of that back out of the atmosphere.  Of what's left, a bit over half will end up getting into the water or otherwise warming the environment.

That should still translate into ~2cm/day of top melt (YMMV).  Not enough for a flash melt, but far and away enough to cause melt pond coverage to explode.

Even on cloudy days, the indirect insolation can still cause ice with melt ponds to lose a cm/day, so the outcome starts to to look more like an exercise in arithmetic than anything else.  We have about 90 days +/- left in the melt season.  Insolation will be doing the heavy lifting for about the next 50 or so after which the prime mover in melt becomes bottom melt.  When that starts, the race will be on to see how long that continues before the energy balance shifts sufficiently that ice gets preserved (e.g. heat at the ocean surface leaves the system fast enough that it can't go into melting the ice).

During those 50 days or so, just top melt by itself could strip off all ice currently at 1m thickness or less, which is a LOT of area.  And again, I haven't addressed bottom melt.

I'll be watching for melt ponds. If this sets up the way I think it might, it could mean my September predictions may have been far too high.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1545 on: June 13, 2020, 11:29:10 PM »
For anyone who doesn't know what a really good pattern for the ice in summer is.

The 12z gem goes there towards the end of the run.
That at least is hopeful, but there's still terrible heat along the Siberian side.  This pattern long term packs the ice into a bastion up against the CAA and Greenland - not far off from what we've seen the last few years.

The preconditioning before we get there is going to be a bear however.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1546 on: June 14, 2020, 03:15:11 AM »
A weather system that compacts the ice against the CAA towards the end of the melting season might remove several 100k extra extent at minimum.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1547 on: June 14, 2020, 03:58:20 AM »
For anyone who doesn't know what a really good pattern for the ice in summer is.

The 12z gem goes there towards the end of the run.

This is an interesting and not so common weather pattern and the forecast puts a large 980 low close to the center of the gyre which would push the bulge of fresh water at the center toward the margins. I'm not sure how long a pattern like this would need to be maintained in order to for the gyre to release a lot of fresh water, but it's an interesting topic.

Here's an old BBC article which provides a little more background on this situation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-16657122


Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1548 on: June 14, 2020, 05:51:56 AM »
For anyone who doesn't know what a really good pattern for the ice in summer is.

The 12z gem goes there towards the end of the run.
That at least is hopeful, but there's still terrible heat along the Siberian side.  This pattern long term packs the ice into a bastion up against the CAA and Greenland - not far off from what we've seen the last few years.

The preconditioning before we get there is going to be a bear however.

We are about to see how quickly things deteriorate the next few days and see if the May record warmth helps accelerate that deterioration.

Here is the first scans from today's modis images.

They are from the past 2 hours.

We can see major clearing taking shape really quickly.

So even if we have a reverse dipole next week. This week will really set things up for interior melt (between75-90N)
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1549 on: June 14, 2020, 10:15:43 AM »
For anyone who doesn't know what a really good pattern for the ice in summer is.

The 12z gem goes there towards the end of the run.
That at least is hopeful, but there's still terrible heat along the Siberian side.  This pattern long term packs the ice into a bastion up against the CAA and Greenland - not far off from what we've seen the last few years.

The preconditioning before we get there is going to be a bear however.

We are about to see how quickly things deteriorate the next few days and see if the May record warmth helps accelerate that deterioration.
Looking at these visible light images from worldview, along the Siberian side things are already pretty damn bad, under full unfiltered sunlight with no hint that this is going to change.

Color of the ice in most of the Chukchi and eastern ESS suggests to me it has a life expectancy of less than two weeks.

Even if the dipole breaks, it's not healthy for the ice.
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