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be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1600 on: June 17, 2020, 02:51:07 AM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1271815837410709505/photo/1

Zack Labe's Arctic air temperature ranked by month . This May has replaced 2019 as the warmest in the last 42 years North of 70' . It's 15 years since the warmest June and 13 since the warmest July . Are these records finally going to fall ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1601 on: June 17, 2020, 07:54:25 AM »
Now, what has happened during May and what is going on and going to happen in Siberia right now is really uncommon (though definitely below 45C). May preconditioning does matter as is evident from Zack Labe's ranking pointed out above by bc. And after the hottest May of the past decades in the Arctic, we are getting a very very strong heatwave on the Siberian side. I expect some nasty things to happen there...

(Friv will hopefully provide you with the graphs and some bombastic words as well :)

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1602 on: June 17, 2020, 08:16:48 AM »
The effects of that heat on the ice are increasingly apparent.

Two screen shots, one ESS/Chukchi and the other ESS/Laptev.

Bright blue over large stretches, and serious browning across the Chukchi in particular, which in the past I've found is a specific signal of ice starting to disintegrate rapidly.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1603 on: June 17, 2020, 10:02:56 AM »
June 12-16.

2019.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1604 on: June 17, 2020, 10:16:23 AM »
While the regional heat in Siberia has been remarkable, 2020 has lost a lot of ground in June re: albedo warming in the High Arctic vs. 2012, 2016 and 2019.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

Considering that:

1) 2020 began June with a LOT more ice in the CAB than these other years. 
2) CAB daily AWP anomaly (vs. 2000 - 2019 average) has been negative every day in June thus far
3) CAB s/b ~90% of season ending volume

....we are still tracking toward a 3D outcome materially higher than last year (rebound).

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1605 on: June 17, 2020, 11:04:43 AM »
The effects of that heat on the ice are increasingly apparent.

Two screen shots, one ESS/Chukchi and the other ESS/Laptev.

Bright blue over large stretches, and serious browning across the Chukchi in particular, which in the past I've found is a specific signal of ice starting to disintegrate rapidly.
I can't quantify this, but I don't remember seeing as much rain fall on the ice as we've seen this past 6 weeks.  I'd love to see how 2m dew points over the ice compare to past years, but can't find that data.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1606 on: June 17, 2020, 11:14:58 AM »
Following up on the screenshots above here is worldview, Laptev, jun17, 2000-2020 (2001 not available). Light contrast on all images to help show the ice edge through clouds, https://go.nasa.gov/2N2CK3t
click to run

pleun

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1607 on: June 17, 2020, 12:16:50 PM »
I can't quantify this, but I don't remember seeing as much rain fall on the ice as we've seen this past 6 weeks.  I'd love to see how 2m dew points over the ice compare to past years, but can't find that data.

Yes, I've searched for some graphs as well, but can't find any. Of course, dewpoint is easily calculated from RH and 2m temp.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1608 on: June 17, 2020, 12:21:28 PM »
The effects of that heat on the ice are increasingly apparent.

Two screen shots, one ESS/Chukchi and the other ESS/Laptev.

Bright blue over large stretches, and serious browning across the Chukchi in particular, which in the past I've found is a specific signal of ice starting to disintegrate rapidly.
I can't quantify this, but I don't remember seeing as much rain fall on the ice as we've seen this past 6 weeks.  I'd love to see how 2m dew points over the ice compare to past years, but can't find that data.

So why make a statement if you can't quantify it? Rain in the Arctic is not unusual(especially these days) and I can't tell how if there's been more rainfall or not, not sure anyone can.

What you can say though, the ice in the ESS is terrible, 2017 was low also but there was less heat and the ice looks a bit thicker than it does now. How much of that ice in the ESS willl be there by July

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1609 on: June 17, 2020, 12:28:43 PM »

So why make a statement if you can't quantify it? Rain in the Arctic is not unusual(especially these days) and I can't tell how if there's been more rainfall or not, not sure anyone can.

What you can say though, the ice in the ESS is terrible, 2017 was low also but there was less heat and the ice looks a bit thicker than it does now. How much of that ice in the ESS willl be there by July
I think it's relevant is all.  I'll attempt to quantify.
1000mb Specific humidity anomaly for the selected years 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 12:35:48 PM by JayW »
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1610 on: June 17, 2020, 12:56:07 PM »
Playing catch-up

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1611 on: June 17, 2020, 02:03:16 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1612 on: June 17, 2020, 02:08:23 PM »
June 12-16.
Aluminium's gif shows sea ice being pushed out of the CAB into the Barents (twixt Svalbard
 & FJL) and Greenland seas where it is melting forthwith.

Do I remember reading on the PIOMAS thread about a load of anomalously thick ice there.
I did - from Rod @ https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg267933.html#new

I attach the super image that he posted that shows so well how so much of the thick ice is ending up in the Atlantic graveyard.  Presumably if the remainder  is sent to its doom this will leave next year in even worse shape?

_________________________________________________
ps: North America was so cold for so long - looks like it may well make up from now for a week or two - especially the afternoon & evening temperatures. Image attached.



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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1613 on: June 17, 2020, 02:20:53 PM »
Playing catch-up

In absolute # of beige pixels at a point in time, 2020 has basically caught up. In average # of beige pixels for the period shown, 2020 has much more than 2012 and 2016.

This graph tells a similar story to Nico Sun's accumulated AWP graph's.

From now through end of July, it's difficult to make up any accumulated deficit with the leading years become they are approaching zero beige pixels. It's a good metaphor for the difficulty of making up ground on leading years in ice loss during this period.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1614 on: June 17, 2020, 02:49:58 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Thank you FG.
It looks like the CAA will be very warm throughout the forecast period. I wonder if the storm will manage to break some of the fast ice in the channels.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1615 on: June 17, 2020, 02:58:29 PM »

Aluminium's gif shows sea ice being pushed out of the CAB into the Barents (twixt Svalbard
 & FJL) and Greenland seas where it is melting forthwith.

...

  Presumably if the remainder  is sent to its doom this will leave next year in even worse shape?
[/b]

I think this is a question that will be mainly be decided by the quality of the next freezing season. AGW shows a bigger signature in winter and the trend is toward worse shape over time. This past winter was a big exception to the trend in the CABlantic region which explains the current positive thickness anomaly.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1616 on: June 17, 2020, 03:30:44 PM »
June 12-16.


I attach the super image that he posted that shows so well how so much of the thick ice is ending up in the Atlantic graveyard.  Presumably if the remainder  is sent to its doom this will leave next year in even worse shape?

I think your getting confused here a little bit. These are thicknesses anamolies  in comparison of between 2011 and 2018. The red you see on the Atlantic front does not suggest thick ice because quite alot of the time between those years, it has been ice free especially just to the north of Svalbard so any ice we see here would show up as red on the anaomly chart for example.

I do think the anaomly charts are useful for further in the basin though and the blue we see in the ESS is a good example of that, genuine below average thicknesses and that is seen nicely on the worldview maps. The red in the Beaufort will be a mixture of thicker ice but again ice being picked up whilst on average between 2011 and 2018 open water has been recorded there.


Wildcatter

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1617 on: June 17, 2020, 03:33:36 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Thank you FG.
It looks like the CAA will be very warm throughout the forecast period. I wonder if the storm will manage to break some of the fast ice in the channels.

Yep, looking back (to 2013 because 2012 wasn't easily accessible), it looks like 2020 is going to have quite a bit more energy into it, at an earlier date, than we've seen. Starts hitting its stride more today. A little troubling, it's looked worse every day. Has there ever been any real structural damage to the CAA ice in June? I looked at the NASA and it didn't really seem like it. There's also been no other year where most of the ESS + Laptev coastal ice has melted/broken off in June.

The next 4 days (including this one), when remembering the melt season is iterative, look like they could be a major issue. The cyclone isn't situated in the middle of the Arctic, it's in the lower left (when looking at the map anyway, haha with NA on the bottom). The crack next to Severnaya, down through 80N, is going to get forced open, it's inevitable in the next couple days. The bodies of water (New Siberian Islands + Laptev), are going to go from holding hands to becoming one homogenous blob pretty soon anyway (just like marriage ha ha), but the winds over the next 4 days are going to drag and expand them. Atlantic gets pummeled some more.

To add insult to injury, a high pressure system forms in the Greenland Sea, going "against the grain" of the Greenland ice, with winds also getting sucked into the cyclone. That starts in about 24 hours or so, lasts for days.

This pack is also going to move. And this all happens while the ESS and Laptev get cooked, and the CAA is turning up the heat. Greenland's entire perimeter gets warm, including to the north, I'm guessing there's a big melt event projected there. Depending on how long this cyclone goes on for, the Greenland ice relevant to the Arctic could get interesting. Curious about possible CAB transfer too, the pack is a lot more mobile than usual years. And the small things, like the ESS movement, Atlantic movement, even budging the Chukchi ice block down some would accelerate melt from surface area exposure.

That's one thing that's going to be important this season, surface area exposure to water. And developments such as basin ambient temp, considering Eurasia looks like it'll essentially be open water with equitably distributed heat (opposed to one big "bite"), and encapsulated in an inferno. Some interesting branches off that, air column and rain over periphery of ice, wind effects, even baroclinity and the weather/storm formation.

But, keep an eye out (everyone, not just you oren  :P  ) for the expansion of the pools of water in the Laptev + the Savernaya crack. It's just June 17, last thing we friggin' need is essentially a bunch of open water at 80N on July 1.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1618 on: June 17, 2020, 03:34:14 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Thank you FG.
It looks like the CAA will be very warm throughout the forecast period. I wonder if the storm will manage to break some of the fast ice in the channels.
I'm still contemplating the discussion we continued on the Newbie thread where I claimed that a storm takes out heat from the system, while Binntho said it adds energy. This storm proves my point I think, that a storm like this can destroy some ice, but overall has a cooling effect on the arctic. Like you said, this storm will block out a lot of insolation during the peak right now. Let's see if it'll destroy some ice.
Now let's pray...

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1619 on: June 17, 2020, 03:47:57 PM »
I think your getting confused here a little bit. These are thicknesses anamolies  in comparison of between 2011 and 2018. The red you see on the Atlantic front does not suggest thick ice because quite alot of the time between those years, it has been ice free especially just to the north of Svalbard so any ice we see here would show up as red on the anaomly chart for example.
The ice on Rod's image marked in red I was referring to is mostly more than 1 metre thicker than the 2011-2018 average. That suggests to me it is not first year ice.

With trepidation I attach DMI's thickness map - even if one has doubts about their model, it should be a rough guide to where the thick ice is. I remain convinced that if the ice around FJL and Svalbard is cleared out, this will not do the ice a lot of good for next year.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1620 on: June 17, 2020, 04:13:43 PM »
I think your getting confused here a little bit. These are thicknesses anamolies  in comparison of between 2011 and 2018. The red you see on the Atlantic front does not suggest thick ice because quite alot of the time between those years, it has been ice free especially just to the north of Svalbard so any ice we see here would show up as red on the anaomly chart for example.
The ice on Rod's image marked in red I was referring to is mostly more than 1 metre thicker than the 2011-2018 average. That suggests to me it is not first year ice.

With trepidation I attach DMI's thickness map - even if one has doubts about their model, it should be a rough guide to where the thick ice is. I remain convinced that if the ice around FJL and Svalbard is cleared out, this will not do the ice a lot of good for next year.

I think that ice will remain there for most of the summer really unless we get a sustained period of strong southerly winds as the currents and flow will always attempt to push ice towards Svalbard therefore I very much doubt it will have any influence on the next melting season.

In terms of this melting season, the below average anamolies in the ESS would suggest there won't be an arm of ice stretching towards the ESS which could mean a low extent(under 4 million) and a slow refreeze? For those that don't want record lows, got to hope the CAB ice will be more resilient to melt. It will be interesting how it plays out though.


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1621 on: June 17, 2020, 05:34:08 PM »

**I think that ice will remain there for most of the summer really unless we get a sustained period of strong southerly winds as the currents and flow will always attempt to push ice towards Svalbard therefore I very much doubt it will have any influence on the next melting season.

***In terms of this melting season, the below average anamolies in the ESS would suggest there won't be an arm of ice stretching towards the ESS which could mean a low extent(under 4 million) and a slow refreeze? For those that don't want record lows, got to hope the CAB ice will be more resilient to melt. It will be interesting how it plays out though.
** I think that ice is one to watch over the next 2 months

***I was just about to put the ESS Area graph on the area and extent thread, but I will put it here instead. Area is NOT lowest in the satellite record (it's #2). On this day the #1 spot goes to the 16th June 1990, at 100k lower. That must have raised some eyebrows back then.

With 24 hour a day extreme heat & insolation looking pretty well assured along the Eastern (&Central) Siberian Shore for the next 10 days, methinks icebreakers won't be needed for shipping along the ESS (or the Laptev Sea) by the end of June. Putin will be pleased.


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be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1622 on: June 17, 2020, 05:44:17 PM »
interesting that for the ESS this was a recovery week in 2012 , 2016 and 2019 . Certainly looks like 2020 will be bucking that trend . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

kaixo

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1623 on: June 17, 2020, 07:20:47 PM »
A very interesting article in the Guardian today. Climate crisis: alarm at record breaking heat wave in Siberia.  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/17/climate-crisis-alarm-at-record-breaking-heatwave-in-siberia
Accordingly, May temperatures seen in north-west Siberia would be likely to happen just once in 100,000 years without human-caused global heating.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1624 on: June 17, 2020, 08:02:44 PM »
Checking in on climate reanalyzer, there are large plumes of precipitable water over ESS and Laptev to go with the heat waves, so I really wonder how long that ice is going to last.

However, while ESS and Laptev are getting torched, it looks to me like the low pressure that lasts for days over the CAB keeping it cloudy and is avoiding significant preconditioning in the CAB. So my guess for the melting season is that ESS and Laptev will melt out pretty much completely, but the CAB above 80 degrees won't melt out very much. So area will decline alot until ESS and Laptev are done, and then declines will slow down quite a bit, much like 2016 or 2017. Just a guess though. 

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1625 on: June 17, 2020, 08:26:27 PM »
With trepidation I attach DMI's thickness map - even if one has doubts about their model, it should be a rough guide to where the thick ice is. I remain convinced that if the ice around FJL and Svalbard is cleared out, this will not do the ice a lot of good for next year.
Why not use a more reliable model? PIOMAS, courtesy of the relentless Wipneus. And yes, that thick ice around Svalbard and FJL clearing out will not be a good thing when it happens, if it happens. I am more concerned with this year, as by next year that ice will have been exported anyway. Winter export is much stronger than summer export.


gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1626 on: June 17, 2020, 08:41:50 PM »
Next seven days, the central vortex is gonna be squeezed between Canada and Siberia by strong ridges.
Cannot imagine a warmer scenario with a well centered moderate low.
Pay attention to the early meltout of Laptev and ESS ice.
Click to animate.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1627 on: June 17, 2020, 09:15:12 PM »
So my guess for the melting season is that ESS and Laptev will melt out pretty much completely, but the CAB above 80 degrees won't melt out very much. So area will decline alot until ESS and Laptev are done, and then declines will slow down quite a bit, much like 2016 or 2017. Just a guess though.

That might be a good guess marcel, but the Laptev melt probably isn't going to stop at 80N. Being this advanced so early, it should keep continue a good distance into the CAB. I think if it doesn't get past 83N, it's a great outcome for the ice given the unprecedented heat in Siberia.

The continent itself is extended as far as 77N adjacent to the Laptev. This season, I think the 80N line is too close to the land based heat to be an effective boundary.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1628 on: June 17, 2020, 11:06:15 PM »
interesting that for the ESS this was a recovery week in 2012 , 2016 and 2019 . Certainly looks like 2020 will be bucking that trend . b.c.
I haven't checked these years specifically, but often the "recovery" in NSIDC area is the melt pondslakes draining or otherwise disappearing from the fast ice, temporarily. This could also happen this year.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1629 on: June 17, 2020, 11:07:56 PM »
Just a comment to Marcel that 2016 had nothing to do with 2017. Except that one was Yin and the other was Yang.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1630 on: June 17, 2020, 11:23:17 PM »
Jesus, enormous change in a handful of days.
From here I would expect in August the eventual decimation of the entire Pacific half, plus a Laptev bite that might run north of 85 deg.
Slater’s model must be smoking hot.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1631 on: June 18, 2020, 12:42:23 AM »
Next seven days, the central vortex is gonna be squeezed between Canada and Siberia by strong ridges.
Cannot imagine a warmer scenario with a well centered moderate low.
Pay attention to the early meltout of Laptev and ESS ice.
Click to animate.

Other forecasts don't show that though but the risk of the heat never escaping from the ESS and then spilling more into the basin again is a possibility. Again though, some runs do have the ESS cooling off but I'm not overly convinced myself.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1632 on: June 18, 2020, 12:55:30 AM »
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020061718/gfsnh-9-30.png?18
 30 hours out .. a 'ring of fire' embraces the Eastern half of the Arctic ocean. Rarely have I seen such widespread heat within the Arctic circle , though the same time last year wasn't far behind .
 b.c.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 01:00:51 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1633 on: June 18, 2020, 01:24:10 AM »
Next seven days, the central vortex is gonna be squeezed between Canada and Siberia by strong ridges.
Cannot imagine a warmer scenario with a well centered moderate low.
Pay attention to the early meltout of Laptev and ESS ice.
Click to animate.

Other forecasts don't show that though but the risk of the heat never escaping from the ESS and then spilling more into the basin again is a possibility. Again though, some runs do have the ESS cooling off but I'm not overly convinced myself.
Fair enough. I just had a look at the EC and expected more benign conditions given the centered moderate low, hence I posted, I’ll check out other models.
I posted no mre than seven days out.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1634 on: June 18, 2020, 01:53:51 AM »
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?
Now let's pray...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1635 on: June 18, 2020, 04:00:55 AM »
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?

We should have a naming contest. How about SPF-2020 since it protects the Arctic from so much peak insolation?

https://www.google.com/search?q=spf+meaning




Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1636 on: June 18, 2020, 04:05:23 AM »
This storm does protects the Arctic from peak insolation right now, but that's not going to save the ice this year if this storm becomes any larger. It'll destroy a lot of ice and open up to ocean to warming even after peak insolation. After rain there's always the sun...
Now let's pray...

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Comradez

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1637 on: June 18, 2020, 04:38:38 AM »
The upcoming storm may be getting ready to block insolation over the CAB, but look at that ridge and southerly flow poking up into northern Canada!  We are about to discover how fast snowcover can melt. 

2020 already has a lead over other years on the Russian side.  If it can catch up in the CAA with this week's weather pattern, all it needs then is to catch up in the Beaufort in order to be a contender.  Even if the CAB does not get much direct insolation up ahead, if the peripheral seas are weakened, that might be another route of attack on the ice. 

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1638 on: June 18, 2020, 07:17:27 AM »
Many fresh cracks on the shelf of the East Siberian Sea. The collapse of the shelf did occur.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1639 on: June 18, 2020, 07:17:33 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Thank you FG.
It looks like the CAA will be very warm throughout the forecast period. I wonder if the storm will manage to break some of the fast ice in the channels.
I'm still contemplating the discussion we continued on the Newbie thread where I claimed that a storm takes out heat from the system, while Binntho said it adds energy. This storm proves my point I think, that a storm like this can destroy some ice, but overall has a cooling effect on the arctic. Like you said, this storm will block out a lot of insolation during the peak right now. Let's see if it'll destroy some ice.

Storms add energy to the system.  Always. And depending on the time of year (i.e. autumn, winter and spring), storms are probably the most efficient methods of adding energy to the system.

What we are seeing now is that at the time of maximum insolation, storms add less energy than direct solar radiation. Which is totally to be expected at this time of year. So even if this particular storm has a "cooling effect" because it adds less energy than direct insolation at this time of year, in no way does that allow for the conclusion that storms in general "take heat from the system". Besides being totally illogical (storms in the arctic are bunches of hot and moist air originating in the temperate zone and arriving with high klnetic energy into a frozen environment), the lack of supporting evidence should make you pause before making such claims.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1640 on: June 18, 2020, 07:23:04 AM »
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?

I'm a bit confused here - in your animation, the storm seems to be attracting dryer air (the yellow colour indicates dry air, take a look at the Sahara for comparison). It may well be warm, and moist at the bottom where it counts, but it is still dryer than the surrounding airmasses. Or am I missing something?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1641 on: June 18, 2020, 07:44:42 AM »
A very interesting article in the Guardian today. Climate crisis: alarm at record breaking heat wave in Siberia.  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/17/climate-crisis-alarm-at-record-breaking-heatwave-in-siberia
Accordingly, May temperatures seen in north-west Siberia would be likely to happen just once in 100,000 years without human-caused global heating.

Interesting indeed - and I particularly liked the following (emphasis mine):

Quote
Temperatures in the polar regions are rising fastest because ocean currents carry heat towards the poles and reflective ice and snow is melting away.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1642 on: June 18, 2020, 07:57:25 AM »
A very interesting article in the Guardian today. Climate crisis: alarm at record breaking heat wave in Siberia.  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/17/climate-crisis-alarm-at-record-breaking-heatwave-in-siberia
Accordingly, May temperatures seen in north-west Siberia would be likely to happen just once in 100,000 years without human-caused global heating.

Interesting indeed - and I particularly liked the following (emphasis mine):

Quote
Temperatures in the polar regions are rising fastest because ocean currents carry heat towards the poles and reflective ice and snow is melting away.

In this area, this situation has been the last six months.

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1272893543695212549

Quote
It's just... wow ---> Western Siberia temperature anomalies averaged since December. Quite the extreme event!

[Data from @ECMWF  ERA5 reanalysis]


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1643 on: June 18, 2020, 08:41:17 AM »
2012 GAC ought to be a warning sign that storm can pulverise and dissolve ice, leaving behind long lasting adverse albedo change of more open water which then captures sunlight more efficiently rest of season. Even if immediate cloud albedo reflects strong sunlight of peak summer, ice free ocean catches more with the rest of season. Is this 2012 GAC of 2020 remains to be seen.

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Thank you FG.
It looks like the CAA will be very warm throughout the forecast period. I wonder if the storm will manage to break some of the fast ice in the channels.
I'm still contemplating the discussion we continued on the Newbie thread where I claimed that a storm takes out heat from the system, while Binntho said it adds energy. This storm proves my point I think, that a storm like this can destroy some ice, but overall has a cooling effect on the arctic. Like you said, this storm will block out a lot of insolation during the peak right now. Let's see if it'll destroy some ice.

Storms add energy to the system.  Always. And depending on the time of year (i.e. autumn, winter and spring), storms are probably the most efficient methods of adding energy to the system.

What we are seeing now is that at the time of maximum insolation, storms add less energy than direct solar radiation. Which is totally to be expected at this time of year. So even if this particular storm has a "cooling effect" because it adds less energy than direct insolation at this time of year, in no way does that allow for the conclusion that storms in general "take heat from the system". Besides being totally illogical (storms in the arctic are bunches of hot and moist air originating in the temperate zone and arriving with high klnetic energy into a frozen environment), the lack of supporting evidence should make you pause before making such claims.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1644 on: June 18, 2020, 09:34:45 AM »
Not to mention that wind drastically increases the thermal conductivity between the ice and air. Just like how a fan cools you down, but with the heat traveling in the opposite direction as long as the air is warmer than the ice. And it is: Even in the middle of the storm most of the surface air is forecast to be above 0C. The wind also makes the ice move faster through the sea, which has the same effect of increasing the thermal conductivity between the water and ice.

So storms melt the ice, even if they block out the sun. But does it melt it faster or slower than a sunny day without wind? I don't know.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1645 on: June 18, 2020, 09:36:13 AM »
A June cyclone is very different from an August cyclone. August has weak ice, warm water and not much sun, ideal conditions for a cyclone to cause immense damage without paying in lost insolation. In June conditions are very different, thus IMHO GAC designation should be reserved for August.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1646 on: June 18, 2020, 10:34:02 AM »
ALL WET. HAPPENS SO FAST!!!

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1647 on: June 18, 2020, 10:52:51 AM »
A June cyclone is very different from an August cyclone. August has weak ice, warm water and not much sun, ideal conditions for a cyclone to cause immense damage without paying in lost insolation. In June conditions are very different, thus IMHO GAC designation should be reserved for August.

Also in 2012, the cyclone just hit in the perfect spot to seperate the ice pack and with it being a 960MB deep low, it really was the perfect storm to do damage to sea ice. Also in 2012, initially the cyclone had warm air mixing in with cooler air and came from lower latitudes hence it deepened so much.

This cyclone is forecast to go down to roughly 990MB and the point where the isobars are quite close together will be near the CAA with thicker ice so I can't imagine dispersion will be an issue here. Its then forecast to head roughly towards the Beaufort/Chukchi regions with it being a flabby cyclone. I'm more interested hoow much cooler air tries to head into the ESS and whether the hot air re enters the basin from a ridge which has been hinted at by the models.

Ice on the Siberian side of the basin looks terrible, never seen it so bad and we all saw how quickly it went last year after a warm June.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1648 on: June 18, 2020, 11:03:57 AM »
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?
In my opinion, this forecast is far away. I am more concern about the heat that we will have on several regions on the following days. Could 2020 become the lowest on record?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

meddoc

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1649 on: June 18, 2020, 12:24:31 PM »
arctic.io seems to be down for months now.
Any Forum member has an alternative Artcic Viewer free (of Registration)?

TY