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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1650 on: June 18, 2020, 01:15:38 PM »
arctic.io seems to be down for months now.
Any Forum member has an alternative Artcic Viewer free (of Registration)?

TY
Don't know if this is what your'e looking for:https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 01:27:19 PM by binntho »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1651 on: June 18, 2020, 01:23:57 PM »
arctic.io seems to be down for months now.
Any Forum member has an alternative Artcic Viewer free (of Registration)?

TY

Hi Meddoc, like you I found the same problem, and now use worldview, which can be seen here

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-7864320,-3837952,7864320,3837952&p=arctic

Ciao, Clenchie.
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ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1652 on: June 18, 2020, 01:44:21 PM »
From the piomas gif (in the piomas thread) by wipneus, we can see large amount of thinning by up to a meter, some spots with up to a meter and a half, and even a channel in the caa where ice has vanished when it was at least two meters thick, in two weeks time! Obviously there has been weather favourable to very favourable for melt and we are close to the insolation peak, but this was up to the 15th, while now ice losses have picked up, at least from a two dimensional perspective. If the weather in the caa maintains itself we could definitely see a much bigger clearout than last year, especially in the southern part, and while some here do not believe that the cab is at risk due to not so bad weather overhead for its ice, the rapid loss of ice recorded in the other central seas makes me think that it is in trouble, dispersion and export will be brutal this year, and the rate of thinning leads me to believe there is not much ice that is safe.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1653 on: June 18, 2020, 01:57:05 PM »
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?

I'm a bit confused here - in your animation, the storm seems to be attracting dryer air (the yellow colour indicates dry air, take a look at the Sahara for comparison). It may well be warm, and moist at the bottom where it counts, but it is still dryer than the surrounding airmasses. Or am I missing something?
I've been tracking this storm closely for a few days now, and I've noticed that small changes make a big difference. When more of that cold dry air (light brown) reaches the core of that storm, it weakens. When more hot moist air gets sucked into the core, the storm strengthens.

Mind you, it could all just be my perception, but you watch all those forecasts I posted, and you'll hopefully see what I see. I find it difficult to explain it, that's why the visuals are there to help me come to those conclusions.
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be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1654 on: June 18, 2020, 01:57:51 PM »
 the gfs0600 forecast seems to completely lack a GAC .
The title GAC is something a storm earns after the event , not after a fleeting appearance in a forecast . There may be a GAC ; there certainly will be one sooner or later , but for now I see the 977mb storm has been replaced with a 1025mb high .. b.c.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1655 on: June 18, 2020, 02:10:00 PM »
the gfs0600 forecast seems to completely lack a GAC .
The title GAC is something a storm earns after the event , not after a fleeting appearance in a forecast . There may be a GAC ; there certainly will be one sooner or later , but for now I see the 977mb storm has been replaced with a 1025mb high .. b.c.

I feel like there have been imminent GACs for the last 5 melting seasons, at least based on their respective melting threads :)

Big downswing in albedo recently
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1656 on: June 18, 2020, 02:26:53 PM »
the gfs0600 forecast seems to completely lack a GAC .
The title GAC is something a storm earns after the event , not after a fleeting appearance in a forecast . There may be a GAC ; there certainly will be one sooner or later , but for now I see the 977mb storm has been replaced with a 1025mb high .. b.c.
True, that GAC has completely vanished from the forecast just 12 hours later. I thought the storm would strengthen, but a little cold air has cut it off from more moist air, effectively killing it. But that could easily change again in the next forecast. That's why I'm keeping a close eye on this. I find it fascinating to track the progress of this storm.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1657 on: June 18, 2020, 03:41:36 PM »
New highest of June in Chokurdakh, +30.6°С. In 2019 there was the warmest June with monthly average +12.4°С. Given the forecast, this June will be at least 2-3°С warmer. The weather near the ESS is incredibly hot.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1658 on: June 18, 2020, 04:02:00 PM »
New highest of June in Chokurdakh, +30.6°С. In 2019 there was the warmest June with monthly average +12.4°С. Given the forecast, this June will be at least 2-3°С warmer. The weather near the ESS is incredibly hot.
Quote

The incredible area loss numbers that Gerontocrat posted today certainly confirm that. 5 day average area decline in the ESS alone is over 50k !!

2020 has certainly shown the ability to quickly shift in high gear. I'm hoping for some inconsistency.

« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 05:57:58 PM by Phoenix »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1659 on: June 18, 2020, 05:30:16 PM »
A June cyclone is very different from an August cyclone. August has weak ice, warm water and not much sun, ideal conditions for a cyclone to cause immense damage without paying in lost insolation. In June conditions are very different, thus IMHO GAC designation should be reserved for August.
Different - yes. Very. But anyhow so much weaker in terms of ice-killing effects as to deny it "GAC" classification? Hell no.

Consider:

- any cyclone that strong wipes out remaining high-albedo snow cover really well, no matter how thick's the ice, and there is still month+ of very high insolation to follow. Direct result of such a GAC during said month+ following? Plenty extra ice melt, which effect is nearly absent for an August GAC;

- any and all "lost" insolation is in fact not lost at all, rather, it is absorbed by GAC itself. Fortunately, only a fraction of that energy will end up reaching the ice; unfortunately, GAC cloud masses tend to have much lower albedo than "best case" June's fresh-snow-covered sea ice; and unfortunately, much more energy from insolation GAC itself absorbs in June - could intensify the GAC itself, i.e. stronger winds, higher temps, etc (in compare to same GAC in august). End result? Comparable to direct insolation energy transfer to the ice, exactly because it's June (max insolation) and not August (low insolation, plenty energy lost in stratosphere due to low average sun angle over horizon);

- whateever mechanical / wave-action damage is done in June will have consequences for the rest of the season. While in August, whatever parts of "weak ice" end up grinded by the storm to open water state - those parts will not "suffer" any more in terms of further ice lost, since they are already 100% open water.

I.e., June GAC is very possible given specific circumstances. I'd say most important is mechanical integrity of the ice, which in this melting season is cleraly much lower than even "recent average" (like 2010's average). Pretty sure we can be very (unpleasantly) surprised about what this emerging could-be-a-GAC can do.

Oh and about naming. I wouldn't name it "the GAC 2020", because i deem it quite likely we'll see more than one GAC this season. Possibly ~5 even. Thus, how about "GAC '20/1" or somesuch.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1660 on: June 18, 2020, 05:41:34 PM »
Naming will be discussed after the actual storm comes and goes. But I will not sign off on a "GAC" designation unless Neven himself signs off on it.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1661 on: June 18, 2020, 05:43:58 PM »
I wouldn't name it "the GAC 2020", because i deem it quite likely we'll see more than one GAC this season. Possibly ~5 even. Thus, how about "GAC '20/1" or somesuch.

The naming convention is quite a good idea IMHO.

But how about those ~5 GACs? Why do you think that? It strikes me as very unlikely.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1662 on: June 18, 2020, 06:22:13 PM »
A June cyclone is very different from an August cyclone. August has weak ice, warm water and not much sun, ideal conditions for a cyclone to cause immense damage without paying in lost insolation. In June conditions are very different, thus IMHO GAC designation should be reserved for August.
Different - yes. Very. But anyhow so much weaker in terms of ice-killing effects as to deny it "GAC" classification? Hell no.

Consider:

- any cyclone that strong wipes out remaining high-albedo snow cover really well, no matter how thick's the ice, and there is still month+ of very high insolation to follow. Direct result of such a GAC during said month+ following? Plenty extra ice melt, which effect is nearly absent for an August GAC;

- any and all "lost" insolation is in fact not lost at all, rather, it is absorbed by GAC itself. Fortunately, only a fraction of that energy will end up reaching the ice; unfortunately, GAC cloud masses tend to have much lower albedo than "best case" June's fresh-snow-covered sea ice; and unfortunately, much more energy from insolation GAC itself absorbs in June - could intensify the GAC itself, i.e. stronger winds, higher temps, etc (in compare to same GAC in august). End result? Comparable to direct insolation energy transfer to the ice, exactly because it's June (max insolation) and not August (low insolation, plenty energy lost in stratosphere due to low average sun angle over horizon);

- whateever mechanical / wave-action damage is done in June will have consequences for the rest of the season. While in August, whatever parts of "weak ice" end up grinded by the storm to open water state - those parts will not "suffer" any more in terms of further ice lost, since they are already 100% open water.

I.e., June GAC is very possible given specific circumstances. I'd say most important is mechanical integrity of the ice, which in this melting season is cleraly much lower than even "recent average" (like 2010's average). Pretty sure we can be very (unpleasantly) surprised about what this emerging could-be-a-GAC can do.

Oh and about naming. I wouldn't name it "the GAC 2020", because i deem it quite likely we'll see more than one GAC this season. Possibly ~5 even. Thus, how about "GAC '20/1" or somesuch.
Thank you for this explanation FT. That is how I understood it as well. A storm at this time of year will have its consequences felt throughout the remainder of the season. Thus adding energy to the system.

A storm at the end of the season will just destroy the ice and stir up the ocean, bringing warmer water to the surface that will then lose its heat to the atmosphere. That's why I still find it difficult to accept Binnto's explanation that storms always add energy to the system. I understand what you mean Binntho, hot moist air blowing over the ice at speed will melt it, but maybe I'm just stubborn, I still think that storms suck in hot air at the bottom that gets cooled at the top, effectively cooling the ocean and the air at the surface. If this happens at the end of the season, then storms take out energy from the system. I think this is proven by the recovery years after the 2012 GAC, no?

How about JAC? The June Arctic Cyclone... And because my name is Danny, and I brought this up first, we could just call it the JAC Daniels storm?  ;D
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 06:32:28 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1663 on: June 18, 2020, 06:32:43 PM »
I could use some JAC Daniel's right now, it would soften the blow of crushing reality right now.

Anyway, I digress. Should this storm materialize, I do think it could have some implications. Granted there is less open water laden with heat to splash the ice around, but the water that currently is there is anomalously warm. Also, I have this sneaking suspicion that the ice overall really isn't that compact...

Really any injection of energy, especially wave action, will do no benefit to the ice. I will wait to see what materializes, but a lot of the pack look like rubble to me.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1664 on: June 18, 2020, 06:52:26 PM »
Also, I have this sneaking suspicion that the ice overall really isn't that compact...

Really any injection of energy, especially wave action, will do no benefit to the ice. I will wait to see what materializes, but a lot of the pack look like rubble to me.
My thoughts exactly Pearscot. If wind speed is above 45 km/h it will surely move that weak FYI around, creating a lot of polynyas in it that can soak up the sun later on. Time will tell if I'm right about that. I'll keep doing my updates in the Nullschool thread for as long as this storm is around, because I'm really enjoying watching this storm develop. Sheers!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1665 on: June 18, 2020, 07:41:14 PM »
Naming will be discussed after the actual storm comes and goes. But I will not sign off on a "GAC" designation unless Neven himself signs off on it.
Of course! Neven it will have to be, i agree. Naturally, i did not mean to "name", above, merely proposed a variant for if the occasion would actually happen. Prematurely, yes; i have a weakness for proposing names to things, please forgive. %)
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1666 on: June 18, 2020, 07:50:54 PM »
Also, I have this sneaking suspicion that the ice overall really isn't that compact...

Really any injection of energy, especially wave action, will do no benefit to the ice. I will wait to see what materializes, but a lot of the pack look like rubble to me.
My thoughts exactly Pearscot. If wind speed is above 45 km/h it will surely move that weak FYI around, creating a lot of polynyas in it that can soak up the sun later on. Time will tell if I'm right about that. I'll keep doing my updates in the Nullschool thread for as long as this storm is around, because I'm really enjoying watching this storm develop. Sheers!

I don't see dispersion really occuring at all for 2 reasons.

Firstly the cyclone is not forecast to be parked over the CAB in more or less the same spot for days on end, it moves fairly quickly over the CAB to near the CAA. The cyclone by the time it reaches near the CAA is fairly deep but nothing exceptional before it moves southwards towards the Beaufort and Chukchi weakening all the while.

And that comes onto the 2nd reason, by the time the cyclone heads into the weaker ice of the Chukchi, its too weak to cause dispersion imo. If the models are wrong and keep it fairly strong and it stalls in the Chukchi then that is a different story perhaps but too much is being made of this cyclone personally. All this talk of GAC and all that is really misleading imo, it's a bog standard summer low which in theory should favour sea ice but you never know these days.

Also I have me doubts it will affect extent all that much because Hudson Bay is due its usual June melting cliff, the warmth still flirts with the Laptev sea and ice extents are all ready very low in the ESS and Kara sea. Time will tell as always.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1667 on: June 18, 2020, 07:56:59 PM »
...
But how about those ~5 GACs? Why do you think that? It strikes me as very unlikely.
Cyclones of the kind are born in temperate regions, strengthened there, and travel into Arctic to wreak havok and doom to sea ice (is my "french" too dramatic yet? :) ). So, one can look to temperate regions and estimate what is going on there to have an idea about what is likely regarding such cyclones. What i see is plenty places experiencing record _swings_ in temperature. Plenty strong winds, too. This points to likelyhood of more and stronger cyclones forming up, and some will probably head to the Arctic. This is the 1st over-simplified, generalized consideration pointing to the conclusion about multiple GACs likely.

The 2nd is what happens with peripheriral seas in the Arctic itself. It is well known that strongest storms have a tendency to rapidly weaken when they travel over lands (and by analogy, over ice, too) - while travelling over open water is often maintains their strength, at times even intensifying them. This general observation coupled with what we see happening to "low Arctic" seas right about now - like that 50k drop in ESS alone mentioned few posts above, etc, - plus cleaner air this season due to pandemic, and some other factors, - those point to the possibility that some time July / August we'll have plenty open water in "lower seas". Which can very much "feed" some moderate-strength cyclone going in and boost it to a GAC, or simply maintain strength of any "already GAC-scale" cyclone coming into the Arctic - for long enough for it to inflict GAC-scale damage to the ice.

Yet 3rd reason was also recently mentioned in this topic: overall general developments in the Arctic point to the likelyhood of GACs repeating themselves, but we did not see many since 2012 / 16. If any at all (opinions vary a bit). Thus, merely statistically, it's likely a year will come with not one, but few GACs striking in same season. Each passing year, statistically, considering said developments (ice state, temperatures' rise, GHGs rise, etc) - makes "multiple GACs a season" more likely. Personally, my opinion is that 2020, considering all circumstances, is indeed the 1st year when "more than one GAC a melting season" is becoming a big possibility. If it doesn't happen, i'd say we'd dodge not a "bullet", but rather something like a battleship's main caliber's shell. Something like this one:



Fuirther considerations / reasons would take much more space to describe and also would require me to bring serious analysis of certain publications, thus i apologize, but i am not going to do it. Hopefully above is sufficient.

P.S. Please consider the ullustration as a visualisation matherial intended to visually represent how dire things are in the Artic, Oren. That said, if you'd remove it, i'll respect your judgement, too.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1668 on: June 18, 2020, 08:27:48 PM »
Looking at the current low pressure system in the Arctic, the wind speeds around most of the perimeter of the circulation are 15-25 kph. In a very small portion of the circulation which is adjacent to Ellesmere Island, the wind speed is 35 kph over 4m+ thick ice.

The 2012 GAC had top sustained wind speeds of 130kph, equivalent to a  Cat 1 hurricane.

What we have here seems to be an AC.

The cyclone in mid-May which pushed Fram export was much more powerful than this one.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1669 on: June 18, 2020, 08:34:26 PM »
All this talk of GAC and all that is really misleading imo, it's a bog standard summer low which in theory should favour sea ice but you never know these days.
I have to agree Paul. Right now the danger seems to be dissipating. When I first mentioned that GAC last night, I was basing it on the development I saw happening in my forecasts and the long term forecast that I posted an image of. But now it seems like the storm is fading. That 977 hPa low is gone now, so there's really no reason to call this storm a GAC anymore. Unless of course the forecast changes again. It's little fractions that are influencing this storm, and that's why I'll keep tracking it for a while longer.

Quote
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1670 on: June 18, 2020, 08:44:56 PM »
If there is no GAC (yet) i's down to insolation and HEAT in the air.. A 15 kph mild breeze can bring a continuous supply of warmth at a rate of 360kms per day.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1671 on: June 18, 2020, 09:53:26 PM »
RIP the big floe east of Greenland.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1672 on: June 18, 2020, 09:54:04 PM »
Thanks, F.Tnioli, for your answer. Consider me very skeptical on that one though. ;)

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1673 on: June 18, 2020, 10:34:15 PM »
Thanks, F.Tnioli, for your answer. Consider me very skeptical on that one though. ;)
You're welcome, though i prefer to hear any sound argument behind your sceptical stance rather than mere statement you have one. Quid pro quo, they say. ;)
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1674 on: June 18, 2020, 10:49:59 PM »
The 12Z euro is right back to brutal for the ice

A very short lived small cyclone travels through the central basin towards the Southern CAB before sliding back towards the Pacific side and weakening.

While a MAJOR ridge takes over.  Also the entire Arctic Basin has low albedo.

It looks like there is a small area on the Atlantic side that shows some surface freezing.

MAYBE...

YOU MIGHT HAVE TO CLICK ON THE TWO IMAGES OF THE EURO TO ANIMATE BUT WE CAN SEE ON THE EURO THAT THE COOLER. IS GOING TO BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.  WE CAN BARELY CALL IT COOLER.


NEXT IS THE MODIS IMAGE SHOWING ALBEDO AS YOU CAN SEE ALBEDO IS LOW EVERYWHERE THIS IS EXTREMELY RARE MAYBE TWO OR THREE OTHER YEARS AT THIS POINT WOULD HAVE SUCH A WIDESPREAD ALBEDO DROP LIKE THAN.



THE LAST IMAGES ALSO FROM JAXA ON THE AMSR2 INSTRUMENT it is a blend of channel 36 and 18 gigahertz.

You can see on the Pacific side the Ice is very wet.

But the main thing is there is no area with blue which would depict surface freezing


2020 IS GOING TO END UP ONE OF THE BOTTOM THREE YEARS IN TERMS OF MELT AND HAS A GREAT CHANCE TO RIVAL 2012 IF NOT PASS IT PENDING ON WEATHER IN JULY AND AUGUST




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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1675 on: June 18, 2020, 10:51:37 PM »
RIP the big floe east of Greenland.
Is that still that same big floe that I posted about many weeks ago when it was stationary in the Fram? WOW! I thought that would have been gone a long time ago. Amazing... Thanks for that update!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1676 on: June 18, 2020, 11:07:24 PM »
Checking in on climate reanalyzer, there are large plumes of precipitable water over ESS and Laptev to go with the heat waves, so I really wonder how long that ice is going to last.

However, while ESS and Laptev are getting torched, it looks to me like the low pressure that lasts for days over the CAB keeping it cloudy and is avoiding significant preconditioning in the CAB. So my guess for the melting season is that ESS and Laptev will melt out pretty much completely, but the CAB above 80 degrees won't melt out very much. So area will decline alot until ESS and Laptev are done, and then declines will slow down quite a bit, much like 2016 or 2017. Just a guess though.

Cloudy cooler conditions are moving into the CAB for a few days.

But that hasnt been the case at all.

The top image is 925mb temp anomalies for the entire month of June.

The second image is the anomalies between June 10-16th.

The 16th is the latest date available.

The 17th, 18th into the 19th are also warm in the CAB



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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1677 on: June 18, 2020, 11:08:57 PM »

I have to agree Paul. Right now the danger seems to be dissipating. When I first mentioned that GAC last night, I was basing it on the development I saw happening in my forecasts and the long term forecast that I posted an image of.

Quote
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?

Here are the four model runs, prior to the 6.17.2020 18Z GFS run that was posted.









Here is the 6.17.2020 18Z GFS run that was posted.



The previous model runs show significantly different outcomes, than the run that was posted in model 'fantasy' land to make your claim.

Even the 18Z GEFS (GFS Ensemble) from 6.17.2020 shows an area of weak low pressure for the same time period. This is an indication that the ensembles did not have strong agreement with the operational run.





   

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1678 on: June 18, 2020, 11:10:38 PM »
the gfs0600 forecast seems to completely lack a GAC .
The title GAC is something a storm earns after the event , not after a fleeting appearance in a forecast . There may be a GAC ; there certainly will be one sooner or later , but for now I see the 977mb storm has been replaced with a 1025mb high .. b.c.
True, that GAC has completely vanished from the forecast just 12 hours later. I thought the storm would strengthen, but a little cold air has cut it off from more moist air, effectively killing it. But that could easily change again in the next forecast. That's why I'm keeping a close eye on this. I find it fascinating to track the progress of this storm.

The Westerlies have been weakening and continue to do so.

With what is left of the PV in small chunks having a large sustainable cyclone is unlikely right now.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1679 on: June 18, 2020, 11:26:37 PM »

2020 IS GOING TO END UP ONE OF THE BOTTOM THREE YEARS IN TERMS OF MELT AND HAS A GREAT CHANCE TO RIVAL 2012 IF NOT PASS IT PENDING ON WEATHER IN JULY AND AUGUST

Not likely to be any records when you enter the second half of June in 9th place all-time in CAB volume.  This is an extremely impressive melt season but the good winter freeze messed up the chances of a record.

Consistency is key to setting a new record. 2012 was actually the culmination of a 3 year run of consistency beginning in 2009 and was accompanied by a spectacular finish.

Check out the numbers in this chart. We grew a lot of thick ice in the CAB this winter and its a long way from those Siberian heat waves.

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1271815837410709505/photo/1

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1680 on: June 19, 2020, 12:31:39 AM »
Sorry for all the data BC, but since we are discussing something I'm doing on another thread, I have to post here what I posted there. For those who haven't been following this, and are interested in the way I look at all this, you can read it all from the start of this storm right here on the Nullschool Forecast Thread.

Written in my own style, and it starts like this;

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

That storm is sucking in a lot of cold air that is making it weaker. But it seems like that cold air is being cut off a little in the latest forecast. If that cold air gets cut off more, that storm could get a lot bigger and stronger very quickly. So it'll be interesting the follow how this develops over the next few days.

Then I have many more in between until this one.

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Well, it's happening. This storm has a new feeding ground on the pacific side and ends up in this forecast with food on both sides. If this pattern holds, I can see a lot of destruction to the ice. Winds will be persistent over the same piece of ocean. If they get any stronger, this storm will turn out to be a disaster for the ice. But again, this is a layman's opinion...

It also seems as if I was right that this cold air has gotten warmer than the models initially predicted. But I have no idea how to quantify this. It is just my perception.


To be continued...

PS: can we start calling this storm the 2020 GAC? Or is it still to small for that?
Edit: I just checked the long term forecast, and that's not looking good...

This is where I also added the long term forecast image. But I won't post that again as it was just reposted by Weatherdude.

It ends today like this...

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

On the forecast from 18 hours ago you can clearly see a small curl over the Chukchi sea that was going to add a new pulse of energy to this storm. But that little disturbance is now gone, cut off by a pulse of cold air, effectively killing this storm... RIP JAC! Maybe...

The best way to understand why I say these things is by watching my forecast videos yourself. I think it's really interesting to watch how this storm changes under the influence of very small things. You can see how it feeds on warmer air, and how cold air kills it. I think that this is so very important to understand these storms. And I don't get that from the regular weather charts you all use. I see so much more in these videos.

So it's difficult to explain what I mean without seeing it for yourself. That's why I'm posting the 2 videos here to make my point. Just put them on loop and keep watching. I have watched these for so many hours by now. I put them on loop, I light up a J, and just watch it. It's fluid mechanics. So incredibly difficult... But I learn from it in my own way...

On the day that GAC showed up in the long term forecast, the storm connected with a little cyclone on the pacific side. On the forecast from today that never happens. And I believe that this could be an important reason for the big change in the long term forecast. I know it's not that simple. The weather is influenced by way more than that. But it's these little nudges and interactions all over the globe that make the weather. So when you have a storm like this showing up, as predicted, it's not sure until the last day of the forecast what this storm will do. And that's where my videos come in I think. On them you can see the little nuances that affect this storm. A little more or less cold air in the center of that storm makes all the difference...

But that's just the opinion from someone who's only been doing this for little over a year, and in my own stubborn way of looking at the world. So let me have it where I'm wrong. I'm ready!
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1681 on: June 19, 2020, 12:45:30 AM »


Cloudy cooler conditions are moving into the CAB for a few days.

But that hasnt been the case at all.

The top image is 925mb temp anomalies for the entire month of June.

The second image is the anomalies between June 10-16th.

The 16th is the latest date available.

The 17th, 18th into the 19th are also warm in the CAB

Temperature is normally above average compared to climatology.  If we compare 925mb temps to same period 2012 it is noticeably cooler over the central basin.



 Also the claim wasn't that the Arctic was cooler, but that it was cloudier.  If we look at OLR anomalies we see that there have indeed been lower OLR over much of the CAB signifying cloudier conditions.


Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1682 on: June 19, 2020, 01:09:58 AM »
I'm not sure I would describe the ECM as brutel for the ice as firstly, any hints of high pressure taking over is way out into the medium term and may change again on the next run but where the high is, right over the pole. It may drop albedo a little bit but going on the assumption the pole won't be ice free, then a high over the pole would not really be a bad thing and the ESS is actually quite chilly on the ECM run. Also there is no real dipole on the ECM run, a strong dipole with warm uppers would be bad for the ice especially if the warm air originates from Siberia again.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1683 on: June 19, 2020, 01:51:24 AM »
The crack next to Severnaya, down through 80N, is going to get forced open, it's inevitable in the next couple days. The bodies of water (New Siberian Islands + Laptev), are going to go from holding hands to becoming one homogenous blob pretty soon anyway (just like marriage ha ha), but the winds over the next 4 days are going to drag and expand them.

6-18
Winds yesterday expanded the bodies of water and helped prop open the Severnaya crack a bit.  Attached images of the crack. Cross-winds today will help open it up a bit more. Winds could also expand those bodies of water a tad. High pressure system will start going to work on the Greenland ice today,.

Quite an interesting situation developing for the Laptev and Atlantic. In around 72 hours, warmth + winds dropping in over Kara, will do a good job nudging the ice block off the island. Some thick ice between Kara + Laptev, not as much as I'd like, volume in the area isn't great in general. Will be interesting to watch develop. Looking like a rough week ahead. Temps on the periphery of the CAA look to ramp up too in ~4 days.

Also attached some new coast cracking in the ESS. Images all optimized, should be about 1/10 of just one of the images some of these goobers post.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1684 on: June 19, 2020, 02:42:45 AM »
Thanks Wildcatter  (as I pay for every byte and run out every month )

in relation to what is occupying centre stage ^^ the 'show' apparently must go on , but as A-team wrote (to me) this week last year ..

     ''at best Arctic weather can be predicted 3 days out whereas 90 days remain to minimum. i see zero interest in 3-10 day forecasts -- why not just wait the 3 days? it is already a full plate trying to track what is happening and reanalysis for what caused it.'' 

.. be cause ..

 addendum .. morality and the ASIF .. we may mostly agree 'BLACK LIVES MATTER' . However , as COVID-19 has so successfully exposed , skin tone and wealth are inter related . I'm choosing not to even go near threads on this forum because of the downloading costs . And I'm white as shite ! Do we choose to deny access to most of Africa (just for starters ?) Or the girl down the road at school whose mother can only buy the same deal as me . Should most of the world be denied the info and resource that this forum is by those who wish to be indulged ?
  Good night .. love and peace ..

                                                       

« Last Edit: June 19, 2020, 02:59:44 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1685 on: June 19, 2020, 04:42:42 AM »
     ''at best Arctic weather can be predicted 3 days out whereas 90 days remain to minimum. i see zero interest in 3-10 day forecasts -- why not just wait the 3 days? it is already a full plate trying to track what is happening and reanalysis for what caused it.''                                               

Haha, I agree with that. However, in certain circumstances, the 4th day can be implied. If the euro and GFS align (which I always check) for the next 3 days, it's fairly reliable. In this case, on the 3rd day, a low pressure system develops. By its very nature, cyclonic winds, anti-clockwise (ha ha okay counter-clockwise) ice movement, you can discern with high reliability that its winds would affect the crack, even if the winds shifted slightly or became less powerful, as the winds would have to completely stop or reverse direction for the effect to be nullified. The only reason for the quote was because it was a mere continuation, its relevance to the topic and the melt season as a whole, and to provide context without having to be so explicit in follow-up analysis. Trust me, I'd rather chew glass than try and prove I am "cool" on an Arctic ice forum, ha ha, but there was information I'd rather not have to convey each post, in what is my opinion, a fairly significant development. So, maybe others, readers, people following along, can follow-up and observe for themselves, watch it occur as it happens, and possibly even learn something  :P

That's really my only goal. If I do say something that's 4 days out, i'll always preface it with something like, "looks" "possibly", etc. This isn't because i'm trying to hedge risk for my vaunted internet reputation, it's so others - as we move forward, can observe what's happening in the CAA, and while they're checking whatever it is all these rascals check, they can "keep an eye on it". It also comes from many hours of self-study of effects on the actual ice. There is value in models, and high-level overview, but it also needs implementation, "how is it going to effect THIS ice pack?", which also requires context because it's never truly the same, ala low pressure systems can be very damaging when we consider the melt season is iterative, cumulative. And i'll never say something is "inevitable", unless it truly follows the laws of physics, and I will rarely say that in the context of the Arctic. Let's be honest, these systems can make an honest woman out of any man ha ha.

To add-on to your last comment, my current occupation as a software engineer that's moved to developing for the web, even apart from data usage, it is also a simple fact that download speeds, loading times, etc have a significant impact on readers, access, etc. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, simply a common acknowledgement in the industry. The solution isn't overly difficult, it's basically a step that's run after submission, and it can actually save pretty significant server/storage space. Nowadays with so much focus on the web, images, etc, implementation can be followed pretty easily. An alternative could also be restricting file size uploads, and then including a link to an easy, free tool, that allows people to optimize them to meet the requirements. That's basically what I do, and i'm sure others do as well.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1686 on: June 19, 2020, 06:10:54 AM »
I'm not sure I would describe the ECM as brutel for the ice as firstly, any hints of high pressure taking over is way out into the medium term and may change again on the next run but where the high is, right over the pole. It may drop albedo a little bit but going on the assumption the pole won't be ice free, then a high over the pole would not really be a bad thing and the ESS is actually quite chilly on the ECM run. Also there is no real dipole on the ECM run, a strong dipole with warm uppers would be bad for the ice especially if the warm air originates from Siberia again.

I don't know how a large ridge over the middle of the Arctic during peak INSOLATION isn't really bad for the ice.

It is way out in the medium range.  But that doesn't change what it represents.



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1687 on: June 19, 2020, 06:24:45 AM »
It feels like the criteria for what is considered bad weather has to be extreme on here right now.   

We have had bad weather since almost all of May.

No summer melt season had endless blow torch.

2012 certainly wasn't torching right now.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1688 on: June 19, 2020, 07:24:13 AM »
It feels like the criteria for what is considered bad weather has to be extreme on here right now.   

We have had bad weather since almost all of May.

No summer melt season had endless blow torch.

2012 certainly wasn't torching right now.

I don't see  anyone saying the weather hasn't been generally very bad for the ice. But you are indicating possibilities of passing 2012 from a position which is quite far behind at the moment in terms of CAB volume (9th). That seems unrealistic to say the least.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1689 on: June 19, 2020, 09:04:58 AM »
Thanks, F.Tnioli, for your answer. Consider me very skeptical on that one though. ;)
You're welcome, though i prefer to hear any sound argument behind your sceptical stance rather than mere statement you have one. Quid pro quo, they say. ;)

It's the statistics that makes me cautious, F.Tnioli.

If it's not happening for decades why would it happen 5 times in one year? Not that your arguments are wrong, but they don't add up to support such an extraordinary event IMHO.

What are you willing to bet? :P  ;)  ;D

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1690 on: June 19, 2020, 10:11:30 AM »
June 14-18.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1691 on: June 19, 2020, 10:22:13 AM »
June 14-18.


Looks like some serious melting in the northern Laptev. It looks like all the three pockets of open water could be connected into a single one pretty soon.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1692 on: June 19, 2020, 10:39:11 AM »
June 14-18.

2019.
The CAA is simply swamped with melt water.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1693 on: June 19, 2020, 10:41:58 AM »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1694 on: June 19, 2020, 10:50:04 AM »
According to the camera at Barrow, the ice in the inner lagoon has completely melted.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1695 on: June 19, 2020, 11:46:41 AM »
It feels like the criteria for what is considered bad weather has to be extreme on here right now.   

We have had bad weather since almost all of May.

No summer melt season had endless blow torch.

2012 certainly wasn't torching right now.

2012 was not warm but it was in the Beaufort(as that graphic shows) which caused very warm SSTS and a rapid retreat of the sea ice there.

Also whilst the temperatures were cool as the graphic shows, it was hiding(perhaps literally due to clouds) the first signs of what would be quite extensive diversion of the ice pack which as we all know played a role later on in the melt season via the GAC affect. I have little doubt it played a role in the final extent if albeit it was looking very likely we would be hitting record lows in anycase.

Also from what I learnt, a high pressure cell over the pole may be less bad because whilst you might get 24 hours sunlight, the sun's strength is weaker than it would be if the high was at lower latitudes and albedo would be worse if there was open water in the mix at lower latitudes. A high pressure cell with lower pressure at lower latitudes would be classed as better weather for the ice than a strong dipole or a large dome of high pressure over the basin with high thicknesses and warmth.

As it happens, the ECM on this run has totally changed on this run but I think it's actually worse for the ice in respect to the much talked cyclone. I mentioned yesterday the low weakening therefore I can't see the risk of dispersion but on this ECM run I can because the low does not really weaken at all(even gains strength again). It's one to watch because with the low forecast headinng towards ice that is weakening, a strong low there could be bad news for the ice.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1696 on: June 19, 2020, 12:18:29 PM »
New highest of June in Chokurdakh, +31.4°С. Before 2019, the warmest June was in 1939 and 1969, +9.5°С. In 2019 the record was broken by 2.9°С. In 2020 new record is imminent.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1697 on: June 19, 2020, 12:35:55 PM »
In Verkhoyansk, the coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere, a repeat of the absolute record June +34С

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1698 on: June 19, 2020, 01:02:12 PM »
New highest of June in Chokurdakh, +31.4°С.

The absolute maximum of the station is +31.7С (July 17, 1952). Observations since 1944.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1699 on: June 19, 2020, 01:52:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
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