Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 368581 times)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8661
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3404
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1700 on: June 19, 2020, 03:24:25 PM »
June 14-18.

You can see from Aluminium's gifs that ice is still being sent from the Central Arctic Sea into the Barents between FJL & Svalbard and into the Greenland Sea where it promptly dissolves. Hence the snail's pace loss of sea ice area and extent in those seas.

It doesn't have to be a rapid process if it just keeps going on, and on, and on.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 176
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1701 on: June 19, 2020, 03:37:35 PM »
One look at the jet kinda makes me want to call Grandma and gather the kids... The 250mb level is acting like the 500mb level - cross cutting over the pole and almost seeming to want to just go around greenland?...  I've not followed this consistently enough, but as per I've seen... THIS IS THE WORST!!  Four days out:

[Edit]: those vorticies were usually rare until a few years ago??  Paul Beckwith highlighted one of the first maybe around 16???  They seem to act like coggs in a gear chain... allowing Warmth to simply jump and wind its way straight to the pole..! 
« Last Edit: June 19, 2020, 03:42:49 PM by Eco-Author »
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1702 on: June 19, 2020, 03:43:41 PM »
One look at the jet kinda makes me want to call Grandma and gather the kids... The 250mb level is acting like the 500mb level - cross cutting over the pole and almost seeming to want to just go around greenland?...  I've not followed this consistently enough, but as per I've seen... THIS IS THE WORST!!  Four days out:

Worst for what exactly?

Whatever the jet stream is doing, the weather across the basin does look alot less extraordinary, all down to what that cyclone does and how long it sticks around for whilst the basin will always be under threat from the heat off Russia/Siberia.

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 299
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 297
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1703 on: June 19, 2020, 03:48:56 PM »
June 14-18.2019.
The CAA is simply swamped with melt water.
Nares also
As we reach peak insolation...

Source: www-grida-no—graphicslib
« Last Edit: June 19, 2020, 06:32:07 PM by Glen Koehler »

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 176
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1704 on: June 19, 2020, 03:54:56 PM »
One look at the jet kinda makes me want to call Grandma and gather the kids... The 250mb level is acting like the 500mb level - cross cutting over the pole and almost seeming to want to just go around greenland?...  I've not followed this consistently enough, but as per I've seen... THIS IS THE WORST!!  Four days out:

Worst for what exactly?

Whatever the jet stream is doing, the weather across the basin does look alot less extraordinary, all down to what that cyclone does and how long it sticks around for whilst the basin will always be under threat from the heat off Russia/Siberia.

Apart from the beast-from-the-east where the jet traveled what... 5,000 miles from Eastern Siberia to london... I mean that was the worst now that I think on it... but refering to the speghitti like nature and what almost appears to be self-spinning isolated vortisies...?  I mean, you guys are the experts... is this normal??

Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 176
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1705 on: June 19, 2020, 04:05:18 PM »
This be the year we beat 2012 is my guess... If Nares had been active like last year... we might have even gotten close to that unmentionable event...  One has to wonder with Hudson taking a beating, would early melt out act on the weather like all the papers sighting the usually lower Bering sea ice form drawing up the pacific side Jet to form ridging...? the Jet over the pacific is not nearly as wavy as the many other times i've looked.
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4857
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1694
  • Likes Given: 2777
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1706 on: June 19, 2020, 04:11:45 PM »
New highest of June in Chokurdakh, +31.4°С.

The absolute maximum of the station is +31.7С (July 17, 1952). Observations since 1944.

Nerds! ;D ;D ;D
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8661
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3404
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1707 on: June 19, 2020, 04:28:30 PM »
New highest of June in Chokurdakh, +31.4°С.

The absolute maximum of the station is +31.7С (July 17, 1952). Observations since 1944.

Nerds! ;D ;D ;D
Like it was warmer in one place on one day in 1952 - Fox News - Hold the Front Page!!!

"But it ain't half hot, mum". 8)

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 176
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1708 on: June 19, 2020, 06:02:46 PM »

Like it was warmer in one place on one day in 1952 - Fox News - Hold the Front Page!!!

"But it ain't half hot, mum". 8)
[/quote]

not a weather person at all, but don't think I've noticed a patch of warmth by EESA in your first photo all alone breaking the pattern of gradually getting warmer... With such 'warm spots' can I take a wild guess METHANE??
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1235
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 457
  • Likes Given: 555
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1709 on: June 19, 2020, 06:14:09 PM »
As we reach peak insolation...
There's one missing. What's the albedo of black carbon on ice?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4857
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1694
  • Likes Given: 2777
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1710 on: June 19, 2020, 06:15:29 PM »
Methane via Copernicus.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1711 on: June 19, 2020, 06:30:50 PM »
The trend with the jet stream certainly seems to be keeping with the observations and theories behind stuck jet stream patterns as per Dr. Francis, et al. Not sure of the exact mechanisms or dynamics at play but Siberia (esp western) seems to be the next contestant on the jet stream is wrong.

Well not wrong of course and i am sure at some point if we survive we'll come to understand precisely why it is that Siberia has been flirting with year 2100 temperatures for some months now. Of course there is only so much energy in the system so all that concentration of heat means other areas (eg North America) will be cooler, as inferred by Zack Labe's plot.

Welcome to the increasing weather extremes of the northern latitudes. It's like the tail of the whip or the highest point of the winding down spinning top where fluctuations are the greatest and most chaotic. thanks to JD for that metaphor.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2020, 06:56:31 PM by Ice Shieldz »

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 146
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1712 on: June 19, 2020, 08:59:36 PM »
Stopped rock bottom?
SMOS beige pixels already tanking. Expect non stop for a week more.
Later than 2019 and 2012 though.

Just like last year, I will be running a pixel counting algorithm on the SMOS images.  The beige pixel counting graph will be updated daily:



https://www.dropbox.com/s/fl2xs6aeop3ioen/SMOS_beige_pixels.png

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 146
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1713 on: June 19, 2020, 09:30:02 PM »
The evolution of the vortex surrounded by a ring of anomalously high 500 hPa altitude is mesmerizing in the EC forecast, as rapidly torn and deformed as the forecast changes of opinion from one run to the next.

 (The high 500 hPa levels forming a ring should reflect that the troposphere is generally warmer than usual at high latitudes these days, although crowned by this polymorphic, liquid terminator-like, low)

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1714 on: June 19, 2020, 10:19:28 PM »
Gleaned from the area&extent thread.

NSIDC Total Area 5 day trailing average losses summarized

               Loss      Increase over average
6/14   -   -106      +01
6/15   -   -136      +18
6/16   -   -168      +48
6/17   -   -193      +87
6/18 -     -181      +75
This space for Rent.

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 176
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1715 on: June 19, 2020, 10:27:42 PM »
The trend with the jet stream certainly seems to be keeping with the observations and theories behind stuck jet stream patterns as per Dr. Francis, et al. Not sure of the exact mechanisms or dynamics at play but Siberia (esp western) seems to be the next contestant on the jet stream is wrong.


thanks for the anomoly map... I watch them daily and was pretty sure I recalled anomolies there most if not all of the winter... Ugh, sorry for guessing... is this the early sign of the Jet just going around Greenland...?  if it ever does, that Kara point, might be were it makes its break back across!
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1235
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 457
  • Likes Given: 555
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1716 on: June 20, 2020, 03:02:39 AM »
This ice a little north of the ESS is looking very wet. Is that because of rain? Or just strong melt?

https://go.nasa.gov/2V1rk4c
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 422
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 296
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1717 on: June 20, 2020, 04:34:42 AM »
Lots and lots and lots of surface melt over the entire arctic right now.

Friv keeps trying to explain that. 

It is still very early in the season, and a lot can change.  However, right now you would be hard pressed to find any year with this much surface melting occurring over the entire arctic basin this early in the melting season.

EDIT: after reading my post, I anticipate a lot of people piling on about 2007, 2012, 2016 and 2019 and saying things were bad then too.  I don’t disagree.  However, to my eye, the surface melt seems more extreme this year than in all of those other years.  We will see how things ultimately turn out. Right now I am agreeing with Friv that this will be a top 3 and has a chance for the record.

But it is still very early!  As Neven always says, we need to keep watching and comparing.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 05:09:10 AM by Rod »

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1718 on: June 20, 2020, 06:57:35 AM »
right now you would be hard pressed to find any year with this much surface melting occurring over the entire arctic basin this early in the melting season.


If you exclude the CAB and Beaufort which together comprise ~ 40% of the current area, one would be hard pressed to find a season with more surface melt at this moment in time.

The areas which are shallow and / or adjacent to continental heat are getting creamed, but 90% of the ice at the minimum will be in the CAB and that region is in good shape and well protected on 3 of 4 sides. It will take a real hit from the Siberian side and have some export, but it's overall in better shape than most recent years.

A good appraisal of a melting season will cover both its strengths and weaknesses. This thread leans strongly to emphasizing the strengths. 2020 has an obvious overwhelming strength from the Siberian heat and now Northern Canada has also heated impressively. The weakness is the slow start on the Pacific side and its just so-so in the CAB.

A record low volume at this point s/b less than one in a hundred probability. We could end up with close to 1,000 km3 more ice than 2012.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1719 on: June 20, 2020, 08:11:52 AM »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1811
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 527
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1720 on: June 20, 2020, 08:42:00 AM »
It feels like the criteria for what is considered bad weather has to be extreme on here right now.   

We have had bad weather since almost all of May.

No summer melt season had endless blow torch.

2012 certainly wasn't torching right now.

I don't see  anyone saying the weather hasn't been generally very bad for the ice. But you are indicating possibilities of passing 2012 from a position which is quite far behind at the moment in terms of CAB volume (9th). That seems unrealistic to say the least.

PIOMAS is a great tool but it's also a model.

Also when you look at the distribution of the anomalously thick ice.

There is a large area near Svalbard and in the Fram.  This ice is toast.  Guaranteed to vanish regardless of the sun and temps because its going into the Atlantic.

The thick area just North of GIS in the Lincoln sea might get flushed but is probably safe.

The area of thick ice in the South Central CAB is pretty safe although that area in the last week seen pretty warm conditions with sun.

The area in the far Western CAB and Southern Beaufort is also likely to be toast.

That ice is sitting on the mouth of the Mackenzie Delta.  It will take some serious cloudy and cool conditions with snow at times to prevent that ice from getting the warm hammer from the river water and land WAA.

Also the ice over the pole that's depicted as SLIGHTLY above normal took the May beating.

That's just my opinion.  But that ice isn't in very solid space to survive like that for the summer.

The AMSR2 instrument has detected enough water on the ice to say there is surface melting over the Southern CAB recently along the strip of good WAA and where decent Sun has been.

The image of PIOMAS anomalies is the most recent I could find.

And while the Beaufort region is well behind 2019 at this point.  There is plenty of time for those thicker floes to get chewed up.

The next 4-5 days will be rather cloudy over the basin.

But the surface is wet everywhere so melting may slow a bit but not stop.

Also the CAA.  Atleast the Southern 2/3rds gets smoked with huge warnth.


And how can anyone conclude the Beaufort and CAB aren't seeing strong surface melt.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1811
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 527
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1721 on: June 20, 2020, 08:46:35 AM »
Stopped rock bottom?
SMOS beige pixels already tanking. Expect non stop for a week more.
Later than 2019 and 2012 though.

Just like last year, I will be running a pixel counting algorithm on the SMOS images.  The beige pixel counting graph will be updated daily:



https://www.dropbox.com/s/fl2xs6aeop3ioen/SMOS_beige_pixels.png


Amazing.  No downplaying that.

Everyone knows about The serious cliff SIA has fallen off of.

But the ESS SIA is amazing. 

Regardsless of where this weather takes us.

That is an amazing jump to never before seen conditions in modern human history.

Amazing
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 55
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1722 on: June 20, 2020, 09:35:01 AM »
There is a large area near Svalbard and in the Fram.  This ice is toast.  Guaranteed to vanish regardless of the sun and temps because its going into the Atlantic.


Atlantic is also going to look like shit before long. Big injection of warmth, Kara temps going up in 24 hours + winds are going to toast that block of ice, severnaya crack getting wedged open. Mosaic team likely going to be sitting in melt ponds. Atlantic CAB could see melt ponds too

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1723 on: June 20, 2020, 10:13:57 AM »
There is a large area near Svalbard and in the Fram.  This ice is toast.  Guaranteed to vanish regardless of the sun and temps because its going into the Atlantic.


Atlantic is also going to look like shit before long. Big injection of warmth, Kara temps going up in 24 hours + winds are going to toast that block of ice, severnaya crack getting wedged open. Mosaic team likely going to be sitting in melt ponds. Atlantic CAB could see melt ponds too

I do feel we need some perspective in posts sometimes. "big injection of warmth" - I don't see that, yes there is a southerly flow but it's quite light and we are hardly talking about Siberian heat here, it's a bog standard set up really and one that favours the ice because of the lack of fram export.

I feel unless we get very strong southerlies hitting that area, I expect that ice around Svalbard to last most of the melt season like last year but then potentially start to retreat northwards as it did then as SSTS and winds take over the ice.

interstitial

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 457
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1724 on: June 20, 2020, 10:48:51 AM »
Assuming the Hycom model is accurate. There is little ice thicker than 3 m and almost nothing above 4 m. I think the white purple and blue melt out completely or nearly so. That would include everything below about 1.3 m. Maybe some of the dark blue green melts out so up to 1.6-1.7 m. That would be more melt in the CAB then we have seen. Though with how far north it is some more blue might survive there. The CAB season is very short and we are already near peak sunlight for the season.  I think the Beaufort wont lose nearly as much as in recent years. On the other hand the weather models I have seen suggest the Beaufort is heating up and might start make significant losses but not for a while.  That delay will most likely limit late season melt there.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1725 on: June 20, 2020, 11:38:57 AM »

And how can anyone conclude the Beaufort and CAB aren't seeing strong surface melt.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

Check out the two charts from Nico Sun's site on the bottom of the page. Daily and accumulated Albedo Warming potential by region. On an accumulated basis, CAB is slightly behind the 20 year average and Beaufort is way behind. Neither region has had a single day this month with above average AWP.

Also, look at Oren's volume charts through mid-June by region in the PIOMAS thread.

Also, look at the NSIDC area spreadsheets by region which Gerontocrat prepares daily.

Also, look at the difference in the Beaufort Sea vs. last year in Aluminum's satellite images.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1726 on: June 20, 2020, 11:56:44 AM »
There is a large area near Svalbard and in the Fram.  This ice is toast.  Guaranteed to vanish regardless of the sun and temps because its going into the Atlantic.


Same thing happens almost every year. With the exception of 2012 where the Atlantic side pushed into the CAB to 84N, the Atlantic CAB ice / water interface generally ends above the line which separates the shallow Atlantic shelves and the Nansen Basin at 82-82.5N.

No reason to expect anything like 2012 on the Atlantic side this year.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8661
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3404
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1727 on: June 20, 2020, 12:00:11 PM »

But the ESS SIA is amazing. 

Regardsless of where this weather takes us.

That is an amazing jump to never before seen conditions in modern human history.

Amazing
Hullo Friv,

That's what I thought - but my spreadsheet said no, it isn't. ESS Area is 2nd lowest. What?!

So I had a look, and voilà... (attached).

The difference is, I guess, that in 1990 there was no way that the melt would reach 80 North, but in 2020 it would be a surprise if if melt does not reach 80 North.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1728 on: June 20, 2020, 12:45:39 PM »

But the ESS SIA is amazing. 

Regardsless of where this weather takes us.

That is an amazing jump to never before seen conditions in modern human history.

Amazing
Hullo Friv,

That's what I thought - but my spreadsheet said no, it isn't. ESS Area is 2nd lowest. What?!

So I had a look, and voilà... (attached).

The difference is, I guess, that in 1990 there was no way that the melt would reach 80 North, but in 2020 it would be a surprise if if melt does not reach 80 North.

The other difference I would bet is that there was alot more fast ice in 1990 so heavy melt ponds and a split of the fast ice and normal ice happened quite deep into the ESS leaving a large hole however no doubts winds and ice spreading out helped the extent line to slow right down in the end. It certainly an interesting anaomly though.

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 851
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 182
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1729 on: June 20, 2020, 01:37:04 PM »
In Verkhoyansk, the coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere, a repeat of the absolute record June +34С

In Verkhoyansk today + 38C, the station’s absolute record for 135 years of observation. Last record +37.3С from July 25, 1988.

In Chokurdakh, today the temperature is lower than yesterday. Possibly due to increased smoke density from forest fires.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 02:08:57 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Burnrate

  • New ice
  • Posts: 62
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1730 on: June 20, 2020, 02:46:46 PM »
Watching this melt season I am really struck by how much ice there is and how much energy it will take to melt it, and then I see it happening and it shows how immense the forces are that we are messing with.

I think the most interesting part of this season will be some of the bigger non-linear things that occur during the path to BOE (even if it is far away).  The kind of things will happen that will make the ice go poof.

I think one of those things is how the CAB will go.  Many people have said it before, the melt in the CAB isn't important because it will disappear due to export when everything around it is gone.

What might some of the others be?  When a certain % of the ice becomes open water the melt increases by a giant step?  I've done some big global logistics analysis for large companies using AI and machine learning and was always amazed by sudden leaps or losses in capabilities when numbers got smaller.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1982
  • Likes Given: 1737
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1731 on: June 20, 2020, 02:53:29 PM »
And how can anyone conclude the Beaufort and CAB aren't seeing strong surface melt.
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

Check out the two charts from Nico Sun's site on the bottom of the page. Daily and accumulated Albedo Warming potential by region. On an accumulated basis, CAB is slightly behind the 20 year average and Beaufort is way behind. Neither region has had a single day this month with above average AWP.

Also, look at Oren's volume charts through mid-June by region in the PIOMAS thread.

Also, look at the NSIDC area spreadsheets by region which Gerontocrat prepares daily.

Also, look at the difference in the Beaufort Sea vs. last year in Aluminum's satellite images.
SURFACE melt.
AWP factors in open water and not just surface wetness, vis NSIDC area. It also does not factor in cloudy or clear skies. And is limited in its estimation of albedo.
Volume chart refers to the thickness, not to surface wetness.
NSIDC area is affected by surface wetness but also by open water, which in normal years is prevalent in the Beaufort but this year is not because of low transport.

I haven't compared Aluminium's animations. But Friv poste images (Visible, AMSR2) proving actual widespread surface melt now in the Beaufort and parts of the CAB, which is quite hard to argue with.

Yuha

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 280
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1732 on: June 20, 2020, 02:55:31 PM »

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

Check out the two charts from Nico Sun's site on the bottom of the page. Daily and accumulated Albedo Warming potential by region. On an accumulated basis, CAB is slightly behind the 20 year average and Beaufort is way behind. Neither region has had a single day this month with above average AWP.

Also, look at Oren's volume charts through mid-June by region in the PIOMAS thread.

Also, look at the NSIDC area spreadsheets by region which Gerontocrat prepares daily.

Also, look at the difference in the Beaufort Sea vs. last year in Aluminum's satellite images.

All of those statistics are somewhat misleading for Beaufort. This spring had less than usual amount of ice transport away from Beaufort. Typically that ice transport leads to a lot of open water early in the melt season, but this year there is less open water. And less open water means higher albedo, extent, area and volume. Thus all of those statistics could simply be the result of anomalous ice transport and not necessarily an indication of low melt.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 472
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 267
  • Likes Given: 327
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1733 on: June 20, 2020, 04:50:26 PM »
Relatively clear skies on the Siberian side on Worldview this morning, June 20, reveal the extraordinary state of the ESS and Laptev for this date.  Massive smoke plumes from fires in Siberia swirl towards these seas.  The Laptev Bite is really a Laptev Gulf.   The disintegrating ESS ice all along its coast indicates that large scale, continuous open water may soon appear all the way through the ESS and Laptev.   Graying, bluing ice everywhere.   

Go to Worldview, and scroll back through the last 20 years for this date... the ice, to my eye, has never been in such perilous condition in this area at the solstice.

Images slightly tweaked for contrast on Photoshop.

Gerontocrat, Juan, just getting back in but have been following your work all winter.  Thank you^3 
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 04:56:39 PM by Pagophilus »
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 472
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 267
  • Likes Given: 327
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1734 on: June 20, 2020, 05:10:40 PM »

But the ESS SIA is amazing. 

Regardsless of where this weather takes us.

That is an amazing jump to never before seen conditions in modern human history.

Amazing
Hullo Friv,

That's what I thought - but my spreadsheet said no, it isn't. ESS Area is 2nd lowest. What?!

So I had a look, and voilà... (attached).

The difference is, I guess, that in 1990 there was no way that the melt would reach 80 North, but in 2020 it would be a surprise if if melt does not reach 80 North.

Gerontocrat, the large, steep dive of the 2020 area in mid June in the ESS, which Friv refers to, is also absent in the 1990 plot on the graph you gave.  I don't have all the data for the ESS the way that you do, but that dive, to these depths, at this time could be unprecedented.  And if that plunge in ESS area continues...
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 05:25:52 PM by Pagophilus »
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1735 on: June 20, 2020, 05:32:33 PM »
And how can anyone conclude the Beaufort and CAB aren't seeing strong surface melt.
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

Check out the two charts from Nico Sun's site on the bottom of the page. Daily and accumulated Albedo Warming potential by region. On an accumulated basis, CAB is slightly behind the 20 year average and Beaufort is way behind. Neither region has had a single day this month with above average AWP.

Also, look at Oren's volume charts through mid-June by region in the PIOMAS thread.

Also, look at the NSIDC area spreadsheets by region which Gerontocrat prepares daily.

Also, look at the difference in the Beaufort Sea vs. last year in Aluminum's satellite images.
SURFACE melt.
AWP factors in open water and not just surface wetness, vis NSIDC area. It also does not factor in cloudy or clear skies. And is limited in its estimation of albedo.
Volume chart refers to the thickness, not to surface wetness.
NSIDC area is affected by surface wetness but also by open water, which in normal years is prevalent in the Beaufort but this year is not because of low transport.

I haven't compared Aluminium's animations. But Friv poste images (Visible, AMSR2) proving actual widespread surface melt now in the Beaufort and parts of the CAB, which is quite hard to argue with.

Certainly 2020 has a lot more ice at the surface now than many previous years, therefore more surface ice available to be melted. I'm not sure that we can point to an area which in June 2020 has ice melting at the surface and a prior year has open water and use that as a means of claiming that 2020 is a strong melting year in a given time and place. IMO, AWP is a good measure because it includes open water which is allowing more heat energy absorption that melting ice at the surface.

I would discourage people from evaluating a melt season based upon peak moments. The season is a cumulative process which reflects the sum of what happens on all of the days. By the cumulative standard, Beaufort in 2020 is thus far subpar and CAB is merely average.

With so many different data sources, I like to stick with Gerontocrat's NSIDC regional area figures, Aluminum's satellite imagery, Nico Sun's regional AWP measures and your regional PIOMAS volume charts as a guide as to how things are progressing along with the daily temperature and wind information. None of these sources are perfect, but they are produced in a consistent fashion which provide year to year comparisons which enables a cogent overall picture to be developed.

All of these things, combined with some growing understanding of historical patterns and relationships in the regional data provide insight into the probable range of season outcomes. The impulse to engage with Friv was based upon his again raising the possibility of surpassing 2012 minimums this season. A possibility so slim IMO that I think it deserves a rebuttal when it is raised.

We can agree to disagree on the intensity of the current moment in the Beaufort Sea. For me, it's not an argument worth getting bogged down in. The main point is the many hundreds of additional km3 of ice in the CAB which put it 9th all time and what a mind boggling finish it would take to zoom past all the other years including 2012.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 568
  • Likes Given: 412
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1736 on: June 20, 2020, 06:08:05 PM »
Further to the conversation re the ESS SIA , with a further drop of 35k today I guess we are in Friv's 'never before in modern human history' territory . Thanks Gero. for the reliability of your updates ! :) b.c.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 01:01:09 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1737 on: June 20, 2020, 07:15:13 PM »
Relatively clear skies on the Siberian side on Worldview this morning, June 20, reveal the extraordinary state of the ESS and Laptev for this date.  Massive smoke plumes from fires in Siberia swirl towards these seas.  The Laptev Bite is really a Laptev Gulf.   The disintegrating ESS ice all along its coast indicates that large scale, continuous open water may soon appear all the way through the ESS and Laptev.   Graying, bluing ice everywhere.   

<snippage>

Worth note in images of the ESS and Laptev, is the smoke from fires being drawn north across the ice.

They are already extensive.
This space for Rent.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 472
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 267
  • Likes Given: 327
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1738 on: June 20, 2020, 08:35:48 PM »
I would discourage people from evaluating a melt season based upon peak moments.
(and)
The impulse to engage with Friv was based upon his again raising the possibility of surpassing 2012 minimums this season. A possibility so slim IMO that I think it deserves a rebuttal when it is raised.

I completely agree on not making '"less than 2012" area/extent predictions at this point -- those really should be done on a statistical basis, working from the data sets you cite.  And as we have learned over the years, a lot can happen between now and the fall.   

Having written that, I think Friv's comments re. the ESS and Laptev zone have validity for this area if the last 20-40 years or so (when we have good data) is considered.  Plus the whole situation in this area is accompanied by sustained, historically high temps in Siberia -- I think no-one is disputing that.  As ever, time will tell.   
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Milwen

  • New ice
  • Posts: 30
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1739 on: June 20, 2020, 08:55:13 PM »
Potential Nares opening in coming days. That cyclone is pulling the ice to north. Probability of the megacrack is also on the board. :o


Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1740 on: June 20, 2020, 09:05:15 PM »

In Verkhoyansk today + 38C, the station’s absolute record for 135 years of observation. Last record +37.3С from July 25, 1988.


Remarkable. Highest ever inside the Arctic Circle.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8661
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3404
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1741 on: June 20, 2020, 09:39:25 PM »
Further to the conversation re the ESS SIA , with a further drop of 35k today I guess we are in Friv's 'never before in modern human history' territory . Thanks Gero. for the reliability of your updates ! :) b.c.
Yep.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1279
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 221
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1742 on: June 20, 2020, 09:55:39 PM »
...which means that ESS is roughly three weeks ahead compared to 2010s average. If the slope follows the paths of the "major melting years" ESS will contain less than 200 k km² before end of July. This would be unprecendented.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 851
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 182
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1743 on: June 20, 2020, 10:04:54 PM »

In Verkhoyansk today + 38C, the station’s absolute record for 135 years of observation. Last record +37.3С from July 25, 1988.


Remarkable. Highest ever inside the Arctic Circle.


Interestingly, no similar temperatures were observed in neighboring weather stations today.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2352.msg269568.html#msg269568

This is probably due to the features of the relief of Verkhoyansk compared to other places - a deep hollow. Due to it, the coldest temperature for an urban settlement in the world is registered.

igs

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 210
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1744 on: June 20, 2020, 11:27:24 PM »
In Verkhoyansk, the coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere, a repeat of the absolute record June +34С

In Verkhoyansk today + 38C, the station’s absolute record for 135 years of observation. Last record +37.3С from July 25, 1988.

In Chokurdakh, today the temperature is lower than yesterday. Possibly due to increased smoke density from forest fires.


We're getting close, even above 65N ;)
Knowledge that does not increase every day will decrease every day !

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1745 on: June 20, 2020, 11:46:04 PM »
Happy solstice everyone !!  :D

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1746 on: June 21, 2020, 01:41:35 AM »

This is probably due to the features of the relief of Verkhoyansk compared to other places - a deep hollow. Due to it, the coldest temperature for an urban settlement in the world is registered.

The radiosonde analysis (upper air) backs up the surface temperature. At 12Z the temperature at 850 hPa (circa 1450m ASL) was 21.2 C.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1235
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 457
  • Likes Given: 555
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1747 on: June 21, 2020, 01:42:57 AM »
Has anyone ever seen temperature anomalies like this in the Bering sea? Are there statistics for that?

I'm surprised though that the beaufort coast didn't warm up more. I was expecting much higher temperatures there by now.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1748 on: June 21, 2020, 03:07:32 AM »
Re Beaufort there is still a lot of ice there.

Here is the NOAA SSTs for the Bering area. 15 C in the shallows of Norton Sound. I think I would chance taking a dip in that !

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1235
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 457
  • Likes Given: 555
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1749 on: June 21, 2020, 03:26:14 AM »
15°C is around the same temperature as our Belgian North sea right now, and people do swim in that.

It's true that there's still ice on the beaufort coast keeping the temperature down, but at the start of the melting season I would have thought that this would have melted out by now because of a warm Alaskan coastal current. Looks like I was wrong about that. But that ice there can't be very thick anymore.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 03:58:05 AM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.