The 2020 melting season

[Davidsf]

Heat in Verkhoyansk in mainstream news

https://www.yahoo.com/news/arctic-records-hottest-temperature-ever-232142257.html

[Phoenix]

Has anyone ever seen temperature anomalies like this in the Bering sea?

Yeah. Way back in 2019 it was like this.

It's shallow there. 15,000 years ago, people and animals could walk over what is now the strait. The sun heats up shallow water pretty quickly.

[Frivolousz21]

That's amazing about 1990.

Expecially since temps in June we're average

Color me surprised

[Frivolousz21]

There is a large area near Svalbard and in the Fram.  This ice is toast.  Guaranteed to vanish regardless of the sun and temps because its going into the Atlantic.

Same thing happens almost every year. With the exception of 2012 where the Atlantic side pushed into the CAB to 84N, the Atlantic CAB ice / water interface generally ends above the line which separates the shallow Atlantic shelves and the Nansen Basin at 82-82.5N.

No reason to expect anything like 2012 on the Atlantic side this year.

No one is expecting the Atlantic side to be like 2012.

That doesn't change the fate of the ice around Svalbard.

It's going to melt on its way into the Atlantic.

That's the point.

You brought up the volume of 2020 being to high to challenge for a record or near record year.

That's all that is being argued.

It feels like your response to this specific region of highly anomalous ice thickness in accordance with PIOMAS was simply moving the goalposts.




This ANOMALOUSLY THICKER than NORMAL ice helps 2020 have higher ice volume going into the summer melt season than 8 other years.  Not by very but that's what PIOMAS says.

However this chunk of ice is going to melt out one way or another. It's not going to be pulled back into the main pack.

You can essentially act like it doesn't exist.  Or another way is that it's artificially inflating the volume.  Of course it's not that simple but it's pretty obvious.

It's the last place you want thicker than normal ice in the Arctic if you want to see the ice retain volume during the summer melt season.

[Wildcatter]

No reason to expect anything like 2012 on the Atlantic side this year.

Holy shit. This is so deliciously ironic.

"You'll never guess what happens next!!"

I may have to make this quote my sig this season.

[Phoenix]

It's the last place you want thicker than normal ice in the Arctic if you want to see the ice retain volume during the summer melt season.

The melt season is half way over and this season has yet to gain ground in CAB volume vs. 2012 or 2019.
No one is arguing that ice is lost via export to the Atlantic side, but we can try to use math to quantify it.

Wipneus provides a chart in the PIOMAS thread which aims to measure the volume of CAB ice being lost to the Fram Strait which we can all agree is the primary channel of loss.

If the chart shows us losing ~ 100 km3 in June, what is the impact on the minimum?

First, we have to give a haircut to the volume by ~ 50%, because if the ice wasn't exported, then it would have melted in place like the rest of the CAB. So that leaves us with 50 km3 as the expected volume of that ice at the minimum if it weren't exported.

Then we have to apply another haircut because the ice is thicker in the CABlantic this year. If the ice is twice as thick, then 25km3 is the additional amount being lost due to their being thicker ice in that region.

Take the extra 25km3 in minimum impact being lost through the Fram each month and add some lesser amount for the Barents export. How does that stack up to the deficit that 2020 needs to overcome in order to set a record? A: Not very good.

Explain why the additional export volume loss in 2020 will be quantitatively material yet we haven't seen 2020 move up yet on the leading years halfway through the season.

<Edited out confrontational bits. O>.

[Phoenix]

No reason to expect anything like 2012 on the Atlantic side this year.

Holy shit. This is so deliciously ironic.

"You'll never guess what happens next!!"

I may have to make this quote my sig this season.

What's the irony?

[jdallen]

No one is expecting the Atlantic side to be like 2012.

I'm glad we agree in this. So what kind of a configuration might you be expecting in order to arrive at a 2D record?

It's the last place you want thicker than normal ice in the Arctic if you want to see the ice retain volume during the summer melt season.

The melt season is half way over and this season has yet to gain ground in CAB volume vs. 2012 or 2019. When should we expect to see that Friv?
<snippage>

We are still *well* within striking distance of 2012 in all metrics.

2020 has also had preconditioning across the entire basin on a par with the most destructive ice melt years on record.

What will make the difference this year isn't starting conditions.

What will make the difference is the how the weather plays out over the next 10 weeks.

We have an "average" season, we end up in the blob of seasons that are clustered just above 4.00 million km2 extent.

We have melt like a more aggressive year, we end up 2nd lowest somewhere between 2012 and 4.00 million km2.

Heaven help us, if we have a season that continues as we are currently, we could blow past 2012 by a wide margin.

The current "rebound" in volume won't help.  That volume doesn't cover a wide enough area.

[Pavel]

Today's worldview clear image shows the low concentrated area north of 80 latitude. This is a dangerous place where I expect the Laptev bite will extend very far to the Pole this year

[oren]

It's the last place you want thicker than normal ice in the Arctic if you want to see the ice retain volume during the summer melt season.

This cannot be disputed. That thicker ice can be pulled to the Fram or to the Barents or melted by the constant incoming Atlantic water, there is no worse location in the CAB for storing extra volume.

However this chunk of ice is going to melt out one way or another. It's not going to be pulled back into the main pack.

IMHO the jury is out on this one. If the Atlantic current is weak so that region does not melt out, and an appropriate wind field does not materialize throughout the season, that ice could remain anomalously thick and help 2020 to avoid record territory.


P.S. Phoenix please avoid responding again on this issue. I do not desire back and forth arguments unless they contain new information or analysis.

[Aluminium]

June 16-20.

2019.

[oren]

This is the PIOMAS map for June 15th. I have doodled a thin line demarcating ice that is highly vulnerable to export under normal conditions, and a thick line containing ice that can potentially be exported under extreme conditions (and including Nares). No need to argue this point too much - the Arctic will decide and we will know in a couple of months.

June 16-20.

Melt water has drained from the fast ice in Laptev and southern CAA, this will cause a temporary rebound in stats, though it's another step towards breakup of said ice. The animation also shows a bit of export into the Barents (Can someone post an OSI SAF animation of ice transport?).

[F.Tnioli]

I have doodled a thin line demarcating ice that is highly vulnerable to export under normal conditions, and a thick line containing ice that can potentially be exported under extreme conditions (and including Nares). ...

Putting similar lines on last frame of Aluminium's 14-18 June update is perhaps slightly more enlightening, so here goes:

[blumenkraft]

Can someone post an OSI SAF animation of ice transport?

This month. Click to play.

(Sorry for not posting them recently. Let's say it was due to technical problems.)

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Click to play.
Large file!

[oren]

FG and all, I ask from now on to post only wide GIFs (>700 pixels) to this thread, rather than MP4. The reason is MP4 files load automatically, while GIFs require a click and thus can be avoided.
It is okay to post narrow auto-loading GIFs, but they must be very small, up to 500KB. This will enable wider readership and impose less hardship on those with limited data connections.

BTW, thanks to all who upload animations here, this takes quite an effort and can convey a lot of information that is not available otherwise.

[blumenkraft]

I love this rule, Oren. Thanks!

A disclaimer for very big files would be nice as well BTW.

Click to play, big file.

[meddoc]

That's amazing about 1990.

Expecially since temps in June we're average

Color me surprised

Wouldn't really trust the Matrix on this one- either (another example would be Covid-1984). Especially since Agent Orange purged every real Scientist in the Disunited States.

[Phoenix]

With all of the attention on Siberia, the heat on the other side of the Arctic hasn't gotten as much notice, but the northern coast of Nunavut is putting up so high numbers as well.

Tomorrow will be approaching 30C along a long stretch of coast and a big section of Victoria Island will be putting up numbers in 20-25C range.

The melt rate in the southern half of the CAA is super high at the moment.

[uniquorn]

Clear weather over most of the Atlantic side today. Some points of interest:
  incoming Atlantic current turning west from the St Anna trough (between SZ and FJL)
  low concentration ice along the Nansen Basin shelf (particularly north of FJL)
  low concentration ice above the Yermak Plateau (north of Svalbard, close to mosaic location)
all probably due to mixing by eddies, upwelling or turbulence.
Light contrast applied to highlight floe characteristics.
click twice for full resolution

[Lord M Vader]

Friv, the reason for the low extent in the russian Arctic back in 1990 might be due to the strong polar vortex that was prevalent during January to March that year.

Wrt 2020, I do not expect a new record low this year. The most interesting questions this season should be how early the Northern Sea Route will open up and how far North the Laptev bite will reach?

[Sublime_Rime]

Indeed, the heat moving over Greenland into adjacent CAB is concerning. While its largely obscured by clouds, the ice seems to be an unsettling shade of blue just north of Greenland. If a significant area has been reconditioned by the WAA, and then receives insolation (as models are beginning to converge around for days +5-10,) it could be a nasty double-whammy.

[blumenkraft]

Hindsight!

7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies since 01.06.

Click to play.

[blumenkraft]

Fram export via SAR since the 9th.

Click to play.

[uniquorn]

<< an unsettling shade of blue >>

and more open water than might have been expected. Multiple fractures around the ellesmere coast and the polynya at the edge of the thicker ice
https://go.nasa.gov/2V5LE4t

see also https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg269613.html#msg269613 from Milwen (not sure about Nares opening up quite yet)

[ArcticMelt2]

https://twitter.com/zlabe

[Pagophilus]

From Worldview on this Summer Solstice Day.  Cloud free skies, had to take advantage!

Image 1.  ESS plus adjacent northern Siberia.   Massive smoke haze over this part of Siberia, about 1500km/1000miles across from east to west.  Winds seem to have sheared off this smoke haze preventing it from spreading over the ESS today.  I have limited experience, but this amount of smoke, and this widespread density of smoke, seems unusual to me, at least for this time of year.

Image 2.  The ESS is basking in direct sunshine.  The rubbly, graying nature of much of the ice is notable.  The fast ice near the shore seems exceptionally gray... from soot from the adjacent fires???

And ArcticMelt's post above indicates the Laptev may be undergoing a similar plunge to the ESS.

Images have been tweaked mildly in Photoshop (contrast and saturation) to bring out features. 

[uniquorn]

wipneus uhh extent and area, jun20.

A small selection of Mosaic buoys showing drift since mar30, the most southerly buoys beginning to be exported through the Fram Strait.
over 2000 frames is not practical for a gif. Compressed down to 1.25MB. Happy to move it to mosaic thread if necessary

[Pagophilus]

NSIDC's comparison map of June 20 2012 and June 20 2020....   For less experienced people like myself to see the differences at this point.  Strong pattern of Chukchi, ESS, Laptev loss this year vs the Beaufort, Atlantic side loss in 2012.  Already much referenced, I know.

[Pagophilus]

And quoting from Gerontocrat, reply #835 on the area and extent thread.  My bolding of the text.

<quote>NSIDC Extent & Area data

- in the High Arctic both extent and area are lowest in the satellite record,
- in the Peripheral Seas area and extent loss is slow, area being above and extent at the 2010's average. <quote>

And those peripheral seas are going to melt out anyway.  So, yeah ... 

Look to area and extent thread for more.  Thanks for keeping track of everything, Gerontocrat... 

[FrostKing70]

Is this same system pumping heat onto the ice?

[Tigertown]

BTW, Verkhoyansk is at 65.55^o N....  I actually just read that the town reaches up to 67.5^o N. Which means it is at least in part in the Arctic Circle. Apparently yesterday set a new record there and for the Arctic overall.

[ArcticMelt2]

The total collapse of the New Siberian islands's shelf continues.

[ArcticMelt2]

In recent years, a comparable situation was only in 2014.

[ArcticMelt2]

.

[ArcticMelt2]

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1274742905253449728

[uniquorn]

The cyclone is likely to be cooling the east siberian coast for a few days.

Following up on the image of ice eddies above the St Anna trough, here is uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, may10-jun21.
mp4, 573KB
edit: that's different- replaced mp4 with better quality gif, 1.75MB, click to run or stop
added chukchi, same dates. 1.9MB

[blumenkraft]

Lincoln on the move. Click it.

[Freegrass]

Thanks for that Chukchi GIF Uniquorn. Those hot currents coming out of the Bering Strait are really cutting deep into the ice right now. Is this normal? Or worse than other years? I guess they must be worse because of the high temperatures of the Bering sea. Now I still need to find the data on the strength of those currents, but I can never find a graph on that. Is there really nobody measuring the strength of the Bering Strait currents? There have to be some data graphs on this, no?

[Milwen]

Current state of Nares

[blumenkraft]

LOL, we are looking at the south, wondering when the arch will break up, and now the north broke first. Ironic.

[Freegrass]

I've read many messages here about anomalously thick ice against Svalbard, but I'm not seeing it.

I always had my doubts about that claim because I thought that this thick ice got flushed down the Fram a long time ago. But I didn't have any prove for that claim, so I didn't say anything about it. I think I have prove now with a clear view on the ice there. This ice doesn't look very thick at all if you ask me...

[oren]

I doubt this image is proof enough... this is not fast ice but ice that has been compressed by repeated ice pack movement in the direction of Svalbard.

[Sublime_Rime]

Holy cow! The 12Z Euro is absolute decimation for the thickest ice just north of Greenland, the CAA and eventually into the central CAB. Starting +1D and going straight to the end of the run. First WAA by 24-48hrs out, then HP taking over the central CAB between +72 and +120hrs, and lasting the rest of the run!

Edit: Interestingly the ESS and Laptev seems to be somewhat spared from these phenomena, as well as the  Beaufort, until late in the run. Though I guess they've already gotten their turn 

[uniquorn]

I doubt this image is proof enough... this is not fast ice but ice that has been compressed by repeated ice pack movement in the direction of Svalbard.

It will be interesting to see whether that compression helps it survive over the next few weeks
ascat, svalbard, day82-173.
edit: 6MB gif. I see the rules have changed again. Please delete if necessary.

[OffTheGrid]

I've read many messages here about anomalously thick ice against Svalbard, but I'm not seeing it.

I always had my doubts about that claim because I thought that this thick ice got flushed down the Fram a long time ago. But I didn't have any prove for that claim, so I didn't say anything about it. I think I have prove now with a clear view on the ice there. This ice doesn't look very thick at all if you ask me...

Found this animation with the last three weeks and one week ahead forecast. Seems to suggest the ice north of svalbard has been thinning fast.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

[Freegrass]

There's a good view on the Lincoln plug today (or how to call it?), and the whole thing has been smashed to pieces. I guess it was blown out by the strong wind there (above 60 km/h) and then smashed back into it when that wind went away? How else could this happen?

On the ice close to Svalbard; I think that ASCAT animation shows what I saw, that a lot of that thick ice got flushed down the Fram, but it also shows that a lot of that thick ice still remains. So I'm gonna leave that discussion up to you guys. To me it looks like rubble. But I guess it must be thick rubble like Oren says?

And did the ice really melt as hard as the graphic shows that OTG posted?  That is amazing...

[NevB]

The break up over the last 24 hrs in the gulf of Yana looks very impressive, I don't recall seeing this must demolition over such a wide area in one day, is this new ?

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-736059.4149606716,1412226.553986048,836804.5850393284,2151554.5539860483&p=arctic&t=2020-06-22-T04%3A20%3A02Z&l=AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Concentration_12km,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features,Graticule,Coastlines,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

[ArcticMelt2]

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1275178592972857345/photo/1

Spring 2019 (left) & Spring 2020 (right) from ERA5 reanalysis courtesy https://climatereanalyzer.org around the #Arctic. Both years saw regions that were more than 6C above the 1981-2010 average: Alaska & NW Canada in 2019, and western Siberia this year.

[thejazzmarauder]

GFS and Euro now in agreement that by Thursday/Friday, a high pressure system will be somewhere near the pole and then strengthen for a few days thereafter. The majority of the inner basin would be affected.

Question for the veterans here: how common is a 1030mb+ system over the CAB this close to peak insolation?