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El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1800 on: June 23, 2020, 08:09:18 AM »
This decade, I found one similar, in 2010. 2011 had it rather over the Beaufort but not so directly over the Pole. Attached.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1801 on: June 23, 2020, 08:20:45 AM »
GFS and Euro now in agreement that by Thursday/Friday, a high pressure system will be somewhere near the pole and then strengthen for a few days thereafter. The majority of the inner basin would be affected.

Question for the veterans here: how common is a 1030mb+ system over the CAB this close to peak insolation?
Rare but not unusual.  What's unusual is the combination of a 1030mb system and the current state of the ice.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1802 on: June 23, 2020, 08:47:25 AM »
June 18-22.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1803 on: June 23, 2020, 10:27:15 AM »
It is obviously a bit outlandish and might be due to artifacts from melt-ponds, but it is nonetheless important to point out that Slater’s model is now predicting the entire caa will likely melt out before the Hudson bay
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1804 on: June 23, 2020, 11:47:36 AM »
Copernicus offers extremely strong suggestion for the high prevalent Siberian temperatures being exacerbated which will have overspill effect for the melting of the Arctic sea ice for the rest of this season: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2020062100,36,2020062212&projection=classical_arctic&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1805 on: June 23, 2020, 01:04:20 PM »
This decade, I found one similar, in 2010. 2011 had it rather over the Beaufort but not so directly over the Pole. Attached.

2011 had a very strong high dominating the basin during July. There is nothing unusual at all about a 1030MB high in summer over the pole, as it happens imo at the time of the current output, on paper there is very little in the forecast that should be a worry for the ice. Troughing look set to continue over the lower latitdues of the basin whilst the pole does have higher pressure, whether it sticks around or not remains to be seen.

There could be some action on the Greenland coast though which will excite some people and may make it into the media if the strong southerly winds from Greenland persist but the majority of the basin, the weather looks quite ordinary imo.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1806 on: June 23, 2020, 02:28:14 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Click to play.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1807 on: June 23, 2020, 03:01:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
The CAA heat continues throughout the forecast period.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1808 on: June 23, 2020, 03:58:24 PM »
June 18-22.


Pretty impressive melt event in the Greenland Sea. Some warmth and a southerly wind which stops export will do that.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1809 on: June 23, 2020, 06:10:19 PM »

The break up over the last 24 hrs in the gulf of Yana looks very impressive, I don't recall seeing this must demolition over such a wide area in one day, is this new ?

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-736059.4149606716,1412226.553986048,836804.5850393284,2151554.5539860483&p=arctic&t=2020-06-22-T04%3A20%3A02Z&l=AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Concentration_12km,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features,Graticule,Coastlines,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor
Indeed, the fast ice went bang in one day. Haven't compared with other years but this is impressive in its own right. Click to animate and click again to zoom.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1810 on: June 23, 2020, 07:18:59 PM »
This is not quite ordinary weather for the Arctic.

Its not the best setup for compaction. 

Widespread sun during peak INSOLATION is terrible for the ice pack.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1811 on: June 23, 2020, 07:39:05 PM »
This is not quite ordinary weather for the Arctic.

Its not the best setup for compaction. 

Widespread sun during peak INSOLATION is terrible for the ice pack.
Think of it this way... each day with full unrestricted insolation this time of year is 2-10cm of ice stripped off the top of the pack.

Three weeks of this can easily strip a full meter of ice off of the pack so affected.  This doesn't include bottom melt.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1812 on: June 23, 2020, 10:17:20 PM »
This is not quite ordinary weather for the Arctic.

Its not the best setup for compaction. 

Widespread sun during peak INSOLATION is terrible for the ice pack.

So the high pressure and warm temps in these forecasts correlate to sunshine? I'm only asking because if I look at the GFS forecasts for cloud cover on climate reanalyzer and while it does show some clearing over the CAB, most of the Arctic Ocean seems to be a 50/50 mix of cloud and clear.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1813 on: June 23, 2020, 10:49:31 PM »
This is not quite ordinary weather for the Arctic.

Its not the best setup for compaction. 

Widespread sun during peak INSOLATION is terrible for the ice pack.

So the high pressure and warm temps in these forecasts correlate to sunshine? I'm only asking because if I look at the GFS forecasts for cloud cover on climate reanalyzer and while it does show some clearing over the CAB, most of the Arctic Ocean seems to be a 50/50 mix of cloud and clear.


We wee specially discussing the euro model.

The euro model is showing a much stronger ridge of high pressure and would have more sun than the GFS depiction.

Even 50/50 sun/clouds would be bad during peak INSOLATION.

Many times even in summer only 20-30 percent of the ice is exposed to sun at any given time.

There euro like the GFS builds up a quasi-dipole but after day 6 the euro explodes into a huge RIDGE.

the GFS has a much weaker ridge.

Less descent of air = more clouds.

The euro doesn't depict compaction but the solar would be widespread and huge during peak INSOLATION.


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1814 on: June 23, 2020, 10:55:15 PM »
This is not quite ordinary weather for the Arctic.

Its not the best setup for compaction. 

Widespread sun during peak INSOLATION is terrible for the ice pack.

So the high pressure and warm temps in these forecasts correlate to sunshine? I'm only asking because if I look at the GFS forecasts for cloud cover on climate reanalyzer and while it does show some clearing over the CAB, most of the Arctic Ocean seems to be a 50/50 mix of cloud and clear.

Warm air can be advected into the Arctic by low pressure as well.

But low pressure systems bring clouds that block out the Los sun angle and quickly create a cold pool.

Dominate high pressure causes sinking air and drying out so sunny skies.


Between June 15th and July 20th SOLAR INSOLATION IS THE STRONGEST FACTOR IN ICE MELT.

this is a staple of every LOW SUMMER MIN EXCEPT 2016.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1815 on: June 24, 2020, 04:45:17 AM »
Indeed, the fast ice went bang in one day. Haven't compared with other years but this is impressive in its own right. Click to animate and click again to zoom.

Update on Oren's update  :P  attached
Also attached ESS fast ice, look at crack and top right nook. Looks like another crack in top left
Gulf of Olenyok also attached (try not to get motion sickness  ;D  )

Fast ice really took a beating last 2 days. Definitely unprecedented for June. Image quality isn't best, cut them down in size a bit.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1816 on: June 24, 2020, 05:25:08 AM »
Wondering if we have any new info on the flow of Glaciers into the arctic... Guess about two years ago you guys were saying some island (near Kara I think) had ice flows speed up by, I think, 80X... Last I heard on Norway was 18X~ that was years ago too.  No matter what the year seems to be doing, they all seem to end up with the same extent in early July... which baffles me...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1817 on: June 24, 2020, 05:41:28 AM »
This is worth keeping an eye on. This guy is a young meteorologist from UK. He keeps a close eye on the arctic and is usually very good. As he says, it is 10 days out.  But if it happens, the CAB will be in trouble.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1818 on: June 24, 2020, 07:54:46 AM »
I think that would absolutely be a very significant development if it were to actually occur in 10 days time. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the models to see if it appears consistently closer to July 3rd. This year really seems to be full of surprises.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1819 on: June 24, 2020, 08:15:18 AM »
The CAA is seeing serious surface melting from June 7th to 23rd. No image enhancements below on Worldview Bands 7-2-1. Click to zoom, animate & melt.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 08:40:34 AM by Ice Shieldz »

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1820 on: June 24, 2020, 12:41:25 PM »
The unrelenting push in the CAA is giving this season a good argument for passing last year as 2nd best in the 2D extent race to the minimum.

The average melting performance in the CAB (as evidenced by volume, area and AWP) keeps 2019 as favored IMO to maintain 2nd place in the 3D race.

Beaufort is still holding up OK, but this season has closed the gap recently and there is still a lot of time for 2020 to turn on the jets.

IMO, the only thing keeping this season from contending for a record low is the unusually good freezing season that preceded it. The 2012 record isn't likely to last too much longer.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1821 on: June 24, 2020, 01:49:10 PM »
Ice in the Laptev, resting in blue pieces.


Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1822 on: June 24, 2020, 02:20:31 PM »
3 day GFS average temperature forecast.

Keeps on cooking in the CAA and Laptev. Much welcome break on the Pacific side.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2_3-day.png

The 10 day shows the high pressure settling in and centered over the pole.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_mslp_10-day.png

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1823 on: June 24, 2020, 02:21:05 PM »
ECMWF says that by day 7 (and then on until 10) it will be very sunny all over the Arctic:

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1824 on: June 24, 2020, 02:47:47 PM »
ECMWF says that by day 7 (and then on until 10) it will be very sunny all over the Arctic:

How do you determine that it will be sunny all over the Arctic?

Here's are links to windy.com at day 10 and 7 using the ECMWF. It shows a lot of the Arctic with clouds.

https://www.windy.com/-Clouds-clouds?clouds,2020-07-03-18,73.995,-164.004,3

https://www.windy.com/-Clouds-clouds?clouds,2020-07-01-00,75.146,-172.178,3

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1825 on: June 24, 2020, 02:56:53 PM »
I have a funny feeling that we'll see more extreme Eurasian heat waves penetrate deep into the CAB this year. But I also know that this goes against all common knowledge, that temps in the Arctic can only go above the green line when we have a BOE.

So I'm probably wrong about this, but somehow I think it could happen. I guess we'll know in a few months from now...
This was one of my more crazy predictions for this season. I wonder if it could happen next week...


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1826 on: June 24, 2020, 03:04:02 PM »
...
It shows a lot of the Arctic with clouds.
...

That projection and overlay are very hard to read to me.  Wouldn't visibility give a better idea of how much the cloud cover matters at this time though?


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1827 on: June 24, 2020, 03:30:39 PM »
...
It shows a lot of the Arctic with clouds.
...

That projection and overlay are very hard to read to me.  Wouldn't visibility give a better idea of how much the cloud cover matters at this time though?

I'll await expert guidance. I'm not repping any expertise in reading cloud forecasts.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1828 on: June 24, 2020, 07:11:40 PM »
One must really be careful in using such Windy maps to judge area in the arctic, as they don't appear to be equal area map projections. In order to fit a rectangular space, they deconvolve the actual global surface area so as to exaggerate area near the pole (ie they are not equidistant maps). Also, the one Phoenix posted doesn't seem to have much of a cloud opacity gradation, and so may overemphasize the area that appears overcast. Just my two cents.

I think using the equidistant map projections provided by Wetterzentrale or Climate Reanalyzer are a safer bet to accurately represent area over the arctic. Given the difficulty in actually predicting cloudiness over more than 1-3 days, I think surface pressure maps and geopotential heights are the best we have at getting a general sense of how cloudy its likely to be in a given area.
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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1829 on: June 24, 2020, 07:55:04 PM »
fwiw - I'm just trying to understand myself. I get that high pressure areas are less likely to have clouds, just wondering if that s/b taken for granted. 


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1830 on: June 24, 2020, 09:07:58 PM »
fwiw - I'm just trying to understand myself. I get that high pressure areas are less likely to have clouds, just wondering if that s/b taken for granted.
Like many phenomena, it's a question of probability, as influenced by other factors.

A key part with it is driven by the fact that high pressure tends to both increase temperature and reduce relative humidity - the latter of which particularly reduces the probability of clouds forming.

So it's not so much being taken for granted as, extrapolating what conditions are likely to appear based on previous observation.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1831 on: June 24, 2020, 09:32:27 PM »
The latest ECMWF also shows high pressure and pretty warm air over the Arctic from T+3 to T+9/10.

And yes, Phoenix, obviously not evey spot will be cloudless but if you look at the chart you will see that it will very likely be much sunnier and warmer than usual.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1832 on: June 24, 2020, 10:10:13 PM »
fwiw - I'm just trying to understand myself. I get that high pressure areas are less likely to have clouds, just wondering if that s/b taken for granted.

Generally high pressure is related with "nice weather" means more on the sunny side, while there are exceptions like inversions.

There is no guarantee though, just kind of a normal whereas the exception confirms the rule as a saying goes.

From experience with high pressure one would normally expect sunnier weather, especially as opposed to a low pressure system that most certainly brings clouds, rain or what we call "bad weather"

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1833 on: June 25, 2020, 01:19:58 AM »
29.06.2020 06:00 UTC, 850 hPa. Warm air from Siberia crosses 80N.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1834 on: June 25, 2020, 01:40:16 AM »
One thing I notice this year even more clearly than 2019, which was hot, is that as soon as the central low gets off center a very anomalously strong ridge starts to intrude the Arctic, if not from Siberia, then form the CAA and so...
There have been weak highs in the past years that do not dissipate the fog due to the persistence of an inversion layer over the ice. However these high pressure systems of lately associated to very warm air masses (high 500hpa levels mean air column under is anomalously warm) do break these layers and dissipate the fog as the warm air descends and further warms up, I believe
« Last Edit: June 25, 2020, 01:45:20 AM by gandul »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1835 on: June 25, 2020, 01:55:44 AM »
One thing I notice this year even more clearly than 2019, which was hot, is that as soon as the central low gets off center a very anomalously strong ridge starts to intrude the Arctic, if not from Siberia, then form the CAA and so...
There have been weak highs in the past years that do not dissipate the fog due to the persistence of an inversion layer over the ice. However these high pressure systems of lately associated to very warm air masses (high 500hpa levels mean air column under is anomalously warm) do break these layers and dissipate the fog as the warm air descends and further warms up, I believe

As it happens, the models are predicting some hot(upper) air from Siberia into the high which does strengthens it and more likely make it a longer feature. It's actually in the short to medium range(around day 4 to 5) and its picked up more by the GFS today. Could still change but its a change in the forecast that won't benefit the ice and is one where high pressure is bad as it means very strong southerly winds over the Laptev.

The Pacific side of the basin still has some sort of troughing at times but the forecasts are a bit worse for some parts of the Arctic.

Next 3 to 4 days is all about what affects that cold cyclone will have on the ESS ice, some much needed cold air here even if its a bit too little to late I woukd of thought. This will slowly fizzle out but at this stage, no real warm up is expected at this stage.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1836 on: June 25, 2020, 03:29:36 AM »
Nullschool is showing extreme warmth not only in CAA but Greenland will probably be torched.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1837 on: June 25, 2020, 06:17:21 AM »
Aluminium, that's an interesting image.
Not only 13.3°C but also a wind speed of 87 Km/h (54 mph, 24 m/s, 9 Bft) over the arctic sea ice.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1838 on: June 25, 2020, 07:09:47 AM »
Temperatures around the Laptev have been crazy. No wonder the fast ice has crumbled in the past week. Click to animate.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1839 on: June 25, 2020, 07:40:14 AM »
The CAA has not been idle either. The fast ice has broken in Prince Regent Inlet and in Barrow Strait, and elsewhere is flooded with melt ponds.
Click to animate.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1840 on: June 25, 2020, 07:53:51 AM »
JD left some damage behind...

https://go.nasa.gov/3dzc7Ol
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1841 on: June 25, 2020, 08:02:57 AM »
Aluminium, that's an interesting image.
Not only 13.3°C but also a wind speed of 87 Km/h (54 mph, 24 m/s, 9 Bft) over the arctic sea ice.

That's way over the ice at 850 hpa altitude. Down at the surface level sat at that time the temp is 1C.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1842 on: June 25, 2020, 08:30:13 AM »
Aluminium, that's an interesting image.
Not only 13.3°C but also a wind speed of 87 Km/h (54 mph, 24 m/s, 9 Bft) over the arctic sea ice.

That's way over the ice at 850 hpa altitude. Down at the surface level sat at that time the temp is 1C.

Really! How totally inane.

At the exact point in Aluminiums graph, at surface on exact same time, the temperature is forecast at 2.8 degrees C. At the same time, temperatures at surface over the ice ranges from 0.2C to 2.9C.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1843 on: June 25, 2020, 09:51:46 AM »
IMO, the only thing keeping this season from contending for a record low is the unusually good freezing season that preceded it. The 2012 record isn't likely to last too much longer.

It may well be the case. Despite all the weather information so far 2020 hasn't done yet anything extraordinary in terms of actual ice data. It's still in that big group of years along with seasons like 2010 and 2011. And it's late June now.

So it seems like despite weather the ice has been really resilient and a tough nut to crack. Maybe things will start to give in July (although it will anyway, because it's the most intense melt month), and maybe it will have better momentum than other years (apart from 2012) in August.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1844 on: June 25, 2020, 10:13:02 AM »
June 20-24.

2019.

bluice

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1845 on: June 25, 2020, 11:25:11 AM »
IMO, the only thing keeping this season from contending for a record low is the unusually good freezing season that preceded it. The 2012 record isn't likely to last too much longer.

It may well be the case. Despite all the weather information so far 2020 hasn't done yet anything extraordinary in terms of actual ice data. It's still in that big group of years along with seasons like 2010 and 2011. And it's late June now.

So it seems like despite weather the ice has been really resilient and a tough nut to crack. Maybe things will start to give in July (although it will anyway, because it's the most intense melt month), and maybe it will have better momentum than other years (apart from 2012) in August.
That depends on the definition of extraordinary. Area and extent are 2nd lowest all time. Maybe that's not extraordinary but it certainly isn't ordinary either.

jens

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1846 on: June 25, 2020, 02:00:13 PM »
That depends on the definition of extraordinary. Area and extent are 2nd lowest all time. Maybe that's not extraordinary but it certainly isn't ordinary either.

For the definition of 'extraordinary' only leading position would suffice in my view. At least until August, where 2012 takes a clear lead, then clear 2nd place would suffice too.

It's not only just about position either, it's about gaps too. 2020 is so generous that not even once have they taken the lead from 2016 in the last two months, but the opportunity is there in the next weeks in which 2016 is going to lose the lead anyway. And taking about gaps, top 7 is currently roughly within 250k, so I'd say it's a similar ballpark. 2020 is thus far no outlier in statistical sense.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1847 on: June 25, 2020, 04:02:12 PM »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1848 on: June 25, 2020, 05:16:34 PM »
You know what, imma come in here with a hot take and say that the current storm is causing some significant damage to the ice! JAC Daniel's has no more fucks to give.

ANYWAYS, reason being, when I look at worldview, there is a whole lot of ice dispersion going on with so much of the fragmented ice being pushed into water that's already trending 5c+ above the norm. I'm not trying to say or claim this is close to the GAC, however I do think that the damage being imparted right now.

The most notable regions being Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. Plus, given the storm's location, I do think it's just kicking what it can into the peripheral open water; at the same time, the relative heat has been unrelenting in the areas outside the low, causing further melting to already weak ice.

This year is still a complete wildcard, but the current storm has lasted longer and been more powerful than what I originally thought. Granted I take what everyone here has to say into account, but I do think that going into July this storm will have left a mark.

It should also be noted that the temps in Canada have been pretty impressive too. Just blue ice as far as the eye can see.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1849 on: June 25, 2020, 05:21:25 PM »
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Looks like a lot of warmth over the CAA and Laptev, followed by quite a lot of wind that will push ice out towards the Atlantic side.

I really wonder if this year we will see a big Laptev bite towards the pole, CAA melting out a record amount, and ice sticking around in the Beaufort area. The latter because it looks like it's been cooler and cloudier than the rest of the arctic for the last week and for the next week's forecast.