The 2020 melting season

[Phoenix]

That depends on the definition of extraordinary. Area and extent are 2nd lowest all time. Maybe that's not extraordinary but it certainly isn't ordinary either.

For the definition of 'extraordinary' only leading position would suffice in my view. At least until August, where 2012 takes a clear lead, then clear 2nd place would suffice too.

It's not only just about position either, it's about gaps too. 2020 is so generous that not even once have they taken the lead from 2016 in the last two months, but the opportunity is there in the next weeks in which 2016 is going to lose the lead anyway. And taking about gaps, top 7 is currently roughly within 250k, so I'd say it's a similar ballpark. 2020 is thus far no outlier in statistical sense.

Your point about the top 7 being tightly grouped is prescient today as 2020 is now 6th in area.

My take is that 2020 has shown some extraordinary regional qualities which don't bode very well for future season outcomes. It's like a slot machine of weather .... sooner or later the strong qualities are going to line up in a row and there is going to be a big payout.

[Freegrass]

JAC Daniel's has no more fucks to give.

That was so funny. 

But I'm not so sure about that Pearscot. It looks like JD will have its final farewell party in the Chukchi sea tomorrow together with his new found little friend. Some really strong winds - up to 70 km/h - are expected to stir up the water in the Chukchi sea for a few hours. I think that'll leave a mark...

Now I'm gonna continue suffering from my whisky hangover...
My apologies for yesterday! 

[Sublime_Rime]

Big shift in GFS from 06Z to 12Z from d3 to end of run. Now looking very similar to 0Z Euro, with HP over GIS merging with HP over CAA to form ridge that intensifies from d3-8, shifting to CAB and topping out well over 1035 hPa by d8. I'm looking forward to seeing the 12Z Euro to see if it corroborates. Also comes with pretty concerning WAA plop over the pole d6-8. This would make for a helluva week ahead!

Regarding 2020 staying "within the pack" in regard to area, extent and volume, I agree that it hasn't strongly distinguished itself from the top 7 years with regard to these general metrics. Yet what's far more concerning for me is the record-breaking regional changes, especially the recent onslaught of ice in the CAA. From my perspective, the snow and sea ice there serve as a mitigating factor to WAA over the thick MYI that builds up against the north CAA and Greenland. Losing the CAA ice early in the season seems like it would make the thick MYI much more vulnerable late in the season, as well as creating open water that does not normally occur in this area during peak insolation (impacting the following freezing season). Similarly, the loss off the fast ice in the Laptev and ESS diminishes its ability to curtail warm air coming off Siberia, though the adjacent ice melts out most recent years. Until the past couple of weeks, I was thinking the Siberian anomalies might badly precondition that side of the arctic for next freezing season, but not threaten the thick ice in the CAB. Now it seems like the assault might come from all sides except the Beaufort/Chukchi, and directly threaten the thick ice later in the season.

I'm curious to hear what the veterans have to say on this. I've been lurking since 2015, but don't have a very longitudinal perspective on this, only started to become familiar with most of this content in the past couple years.

Edit: Climate Reanalyzer now shows the 12Z GFS CAB HP topping out at 1039 hPa at +186h (!!!)

[GoSouthYoungins]

Looks like a lot of warmth over the CAA and Laptev, followed by quite a lot of wind that will push ice out towards the Atlantic side.

Bingo. That looks like the story for the next week.

Add to it that smoke is skirting 3000km around the of arctic coast and damn, July will be a party. I'll likely be in quarentine/lockdown, so I'm stocking up on popcorn so I can enjoy the show.


Anyone know if CAA has ever melted out completely? Where is the most resilient ice in the CAA?

I think CAA is going to zero this year.

[Phoenix]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/25/arctic-heatwave-38c-siberia-science

Editorial for the Guardian about the current Siberian heat wave and other issues by Dr. Tasmin Edwards. She's one of the IPCC authors who will be providing guidance in the upcoming AR6 on sea level rise.

[Tigertown]

"Anyone know if CAA has ever melted out completely? "
It won't have to melt out. If it melts just enough and turns to slush, the CAA can bleed out like a stuck pig.

[Phoenix]

Where is the most resilient ice in the CAA?

I think CAA is going to zero this year.

I would guess that the most resilient ice in the CAA is probably the portion farthest from the North America continental landmass and adjacent to the CAB.

I'm hoping that there will be something left there. But the warmth has been unrelenting for a couple of weeks with no end in sight.

[pearscot]

JAC Daniel's has no more fucks to give.

That was so funny. 

But I'm not so sure about that Pearscot. It looks like JD will have its final farewell party in the Chukchi sea tomorrow together with his new found little friend. Some really strong winds - up to 70 km/h - are expected to stir up the water in the Chukchi sea for a few hours. I think that'll leave a mark...

Now I'm gonna continue suffering from my whisky hangover...
My apologies for yesterday! 

Ha, thanks! And I know those feels, I had a bit too much fun on Tuesday...

And to your point, I just don't know how much this storm will affect the ice, but I've been REALLY surprised to see some fairly large ice flows drift into open areas. I think overall this will increase the ice's surface area...we shall see!

[gerontocrat]

....Yet what's far more concerning for me is the record-breaking regional changes, especially the recent onslaught of ice in the CAA. From my perspective, the snow and sea ice there serve as a mitigating factor to WAA over the thick MYI that builds up against the north CAA and Greenland. Losing the CAA ice early in the season seems like it would make the thick MYI much more vulnerable late in the season, as well as creating open water that does not normally occur in this area during peak insolation (impacting the following freezing season).

I'm curious to hear what the veterans have to say on this. I've been lurking since 2015, but don't have a very longitudinal perspective on this, only started to become familiar with most of this content in the past couple years.

I am also not a veteran (on this forum)- so instead I put into the search facility "garlic press". If the CAA melts out early, and the winds / currents do their stuff, thick ice from the Cntral Arctic will be squeezed into the multiple open & warm water channels of the CAA - i.e. the CAA becomes "The Garlic Press".

Here is a posting from A-Team back in 2016, that shows this effect lasting well into October.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg91963.html#msg91963

I also attach the lovely gif he made. Perhaps 2020 will mimic 2016?

[GoSouthYoungins]

Good points everyone.

Yes, it will likely melt out this year, but not actually ever at a given point in time because the garlic press will probably be going.

This is the probably very doomy, because the only thick ice in the arctic is waiting to be pressed. Yikes.

[Sublime_Rime]

If the CAA melts out early, and the winds / currents do their stuff, thick ice from the Cntral Arctic will be squeezed into the multiple open & warm water channels of the CAA - i.e. the CAA becomes "The Garlic Press".

Uh oh! Thanks for that reminder. Pretty frightening possibility, especially if that process continues into October. The 12Z Euro comes with a less intense HP dome, but considerably worse WAA extending over the entire Atlantic side and CAA. Several other models go with a strong ridge transitioning to a quasi dipole very late in the run, like the GFS. We'll see...

[interstitial]

OT: Iceberg on Larsen D shelf calving soon. See antarctic icebergs.

[HapHazard]

Where is the most resilient ice in the CAA?

I think CAA is going to zero this year.

The "garlic press" would essentially prevent a zero ice event in the CAA. Unless we have a BOE, I guess. Ick. Anyway, I outlined the most resilient area in the attachment.

Aside: IDK if this one's ever been posted before, but here's some great in-depth reading/info regarding the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: oceansnorth.org link to PDF

[Eco-Author]

Good call people... usually we're not thinking garlic press for a long time to come!  <3 This is why I come here!

[KenB]

Good points everyone.

Yes, it will likely melt out this year, but not actually ever at a given point in time because the garlic press will probably be going.

This is the probably very doomy, because the only thick ice in the arctic is waiting to be pressed. Yikes.

Hi Folks, 
  Complete newbie here, but I've been lurking for a while.  Just a quick question if I might:  why is it that the ice is thickest immediately north of the CAA?  Has this always been the case or is it a recent development?  Thanks!

[johnm33]

An A-Team treatment of uh amsr2, CAA looking very fragile.

[oren]

Looks like a lot of warmth over the CAA and Laptev, followed by quite a lot of wind that will push ice out towards the Atlantic side.

Anyone know if CAA has ever melted out completely? Where is the most resilient ice in the CAA?

I think CAA is going to zero this year.

Predicting an extreme result this year without knowing past results is not a very valid scientific approach.

In any case, 2012 did the biggest number on the CAA, more so because the Beaufort was empty of ice and thus could not export it through the main CAA channel. But even in 2012 the PGAS remained partially ice-covered. That region is certainly the most resilient in the CAA. 2015 is the runner-up for the CAA.
Images are Sep 9h 2012, and Sep 1st 2015. Click to zoom in on the CAA.
UH AMSR2 area courtesy of Wipneus, 2012 is the very light green.

* PGAS: Prince Gustav Adolf Sea, which user Ossifrage discussed extensively last year

[oren]

Hi Folks, 
  Complete newbie here, but I've been lurking for a while.  Just a quick question if I might:  why is it that the ice is thickest immediately north of the CAA?  Has this always been the case or is it a recent development?  Thanks!

Welcome KenB. This fits better in the questions thread but the basic answer is yes, it's "always" been the case, there is a general drift from the direction of Siberia towards CAA/Greenland. Watch this video to get the hang of things.

[wdmn]

Your point about the top 7 being tightly grouped is prescient today as 2020 is now 6th in area.

My take is that 2020 has shown some extraordinary regional qualities which don't bode very well for future season outcomes. It's like a slot machine of weather .... sooner or later the strong qualities are going to line up in a row and there is going to be a big payout.

NSIDC data shows 3rd.

Also, note that Hudson Bay is lagging behind most of the last ten years in terms of area, but we know that Hudson Bay will eventually go to zero, and so this difference will be made up.

[OffTheGrid]

Your point about the top 7 being tightly grouped is prescient today as 2020 is now 6th in area.

My take is that 2020 has shown some extraordinary regional qualities which don't bode very well for future season outcomes. It's like a slot machine of weather .... sooner or later the strong qualities are going to line up in a row and there is going to be a big payout.

NSIDC data shows 3rd.

Also, note that Hudson Bay is lagging behind most of the last ten years in terms of area, but we know that Hudson Bay will eventually go to zero, and so this difference will be made up.

Not to mention the Beaufort and Chukchi have been getting constant fillups from the thickest ice unravelling from nth ofthe CAA, and flowing alinga the Alaskan coast.
This seems to have formed a coastal arm that will almost certainly be severed and melt out quickly. As Mosaic has discovered, ice mobility this year is very high.
Check out the last seven years of June 24 that interstitial just posted on the Hycom vs amsr thread.
This year looks like the obvious melt leader imho.

[be cause]

That HYCOM model ^^ predicts lift off of the thickest ice , which may soon come slamming back and have us an active garlic press by the middle of July . Just one of the many reasons this could still be BOE No 1 ! b.c.

[OffTheGrid]

That HYCOM model ^^ predicts lift off of the thickest ice , which may soon come slamming back and have us an active garlic press by the middle of July . Just one of the many reasons this could still be BOE No 1 ! b.c.

This model has been showing an active garlic press, or perhaps cheese grater or ice cream scoop since may.
Whether Its right or not, blue has gone deep violet on worldview in the most protected place for seaice in the arctic today.

[interstitial]

Why post month old Hycom?

[OffTheGrid]

Why post month old Hycom?

Sorry. Because of the garlic press discussion.

[Michael Hauber]

IMO, the only thing keeping this season from contending for a record low is the unusually good freezing season that preceded it. The 2012 record isn't likely to last too much longer.

It may well be the case. Despite all the weather information so far 2020 hasn't done yet anything extraordinary in terms of actual ice data. It's still in that big group of years along with seasons like 2010 and 2011. And it's late June now.

So it seems like despite weather the ice has been really resilient and a tough nut to crack. Maybe things will start to give in July (although it will anyway, because it's the most intense melt month), and maybe it will have better momentum than other years (apart from 2012) in August.

This season has some similarities with 2007, where the Pacific side was hit hard and the Atlantic side stayed cool.  The middle of the season is dominated by melting on the Atlantic side, so no surprise thatt extent is not yet crashing, but even so still well positioned close to the lead.  In 2007 there was spectacular crash in extent in the first few days of July as the Siberian region really opened up.

Currently a low pressure with cooler air has moved over the Siberian sector and is holding up the melt, but also potentially dispersing the ice making it more vulnerable.  Been surprised at how little dispersion I've seen so far though.  Looking at forecasts the heat will be back in a few days, although the winds aren't particularly suited to fast extent losses in the Siberian sector.  Potential is there for a serious crash to clear lead during July in my opinion, given suitable weather conditions.  I suspect the central pack is still on the healthy side, and I feel that a solid lead in July will narrow or be lost during August as the melt front moves into the central pack and 2012 makes its big move.

[nanning]

<snip>
Add to it that smoke is skirting 3000km around the of arctic coast and damn, July will be a party.

I have had that thought too.
Is it likely that soot from Siberian wildfires is transported by wind onto arctic sea ice?

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

<snip>
Add to it that smoke is skirting 3000km around the of arctic coast and damn, July will be a party.

I have had that thought too.
Is it likely that soot from Siberian wildfires is transported by wind onto arctic sea ice?

If soot does end up being deposited on the arctic ice, is it possible that the darker particulate could affect the albedo enough to accelerate melt if significant enough accumulation occurs?

[tzupancic]

Just one thing, the conditioning of the ice.

Was 2020 unusual regarding the conditioning of the ice?

Whatever happened in this regard this year was not something that would have been reflected in standard measures of sea ice extent, area, or volume.

Thus, if 2020 was exceptional in ‘conditioning’ one would not expect to see any impact of this at the present time.

I suggest this here because the peak of solar insolation is obviously a time to consider what happens next.

Many have commented that 2020 is not exceptional, referring to sea ice extent, area, and volume.  Regarding what happens next, is early season ‘conditioning’ (such as early formation of melt ponds over extensive areas) a factor to be considered?

[nanning]

My apologies to GoSouthYoungins because I had not yet read this post in the "Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice" thread:

It seems to me that if the permafrost is melting and fires stay dormant between summers, there is a high likelihood that soot lands on fast swaths of the arctic ice over the next few years, which would almost certainly tip the balance towards near turn doom.
<snip></quote]

[blumenkraft]

Hi Folks, 
  Complete newbie here, but I've been lurking for a while.  Just a quick question if I might:  why is it that the ice is thickest immediately north of the CAA?  Has this always been the case or is it a recent development?  Thanks!

Hey, Ken. Nice to meet you.

Yes, the CAA usually has some thick ice. The pack is sometimes pressed against the landmass and the ice tends to level up.

[Frivolousz21]

Some serious DOWNSLOPING is coming to the CAB.  This is the premiere setup for major CAB ice melt.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING BETWEEN A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS GOING TO ANCHOR ITSELF over the Eastern CA. And GIS and spread across the basin.

However the DOWNSLOPING flow stays primarily intact during almost the entire 10 day model run on the euro.

This might not immediately show its face in the EXTENT charts.

But believe it...

YOU MAY HAVE TO CLICK TO ANIMATE.  YOU CAN SEE THE DOWNSLOPING SIGNAL ON THE 850 MB TEMP CHART.

THERE IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE 10 to 15C+ temps at times flowing off the Canadian Arpichelago islands throughout the next 10 days.

Plus mostly sunny conditions over the central Arctic and CAB

[Phoenix]

Just one thing, the conditioning of the ice.

Was 2020 unusual regarding the conditioning of the ice?

Whatever happened in this regard this year was not something that would have been reflected in standard measures of sea ice extent, area, or volume.

Many have commented that 2020 is not exceptional, referring to sea ice extent, area, and volume.  Regarding what happens next, is early season ‘conditioning’ (such as early formation of melt ponds over extensive areas) a factor to be considered?

Conditioning impacts both sea ice area and volume. 2020 has been exceptional regionally with all of the Siberian Seas and now CAA. It's not exceptional in the aggregate at this point.

[be cause]

''This model has been showing an active garlic press, or perhaps cheese grater or ice cream scoop since may.'' .. OTG post 1871 ..
  Oh No it hasn't .. no ice has moved south through the channels .. the very definition of the garlic press at work . As Friv has since highlighted , a southerly will continue to roast the channels over the coming days and probably push the main pack off shore . This is the weather preparing the way for activity sooner or later .. i fear sooner .. b.c.

[SimonF92]

Why post month old Hycom?

Sorry. Because of the garlic press discussion.

I thought your contribution was useful, thanks for taking the time to collate data like that for everyone else.

(its an animated gif)

[Paul]

2020 is starting to catch up somewhat with the dispersion side of things, not as extreme as 2012/2016(or 2008 even) but this is why sometimes I rather not see stormy conditions over the CAB as disperse ice is more vulnable than compact ice. It will be interesting how it develops but the Siberian side of the basin really does look vulnable for later on in the melt season. Makes me think a ice pattern similar to 2007 could be on the cards.

Will be interesting what affects this high pressure will have on the ice, i do feel some of it depends on how much warm winds we will see through Laptev as this will only strengthen the high and the indications are, the high will stick around. At least it looks a bit cooler and slacker on the Pacific side of the basin(better than having a dipole). No doubt we will see ice lifting off the coasts of the CAA and perhaps Greenland also.

Extent still 2nd lowest according to JAXA, wherever this season ends up, its just another sign ice is retreating quicker and quicker. Bit of warmth and winds and open water just a appears at wiil.

[uniquorn]

This model has been showing an active garlic press>>

Depends on interpretation I suppose. Bottom melt and thickening in the same channel seems unlikely though it could be possible. No surface movement visible on worldview though it is often cloudy, difficult to tell on ascat.
hycom animation forecast ends on jun14. It doesn't appear to have modelled that area very well.
click to run

[oren]

The CAA channels have not been moving, and Hycom is not good with this sort of thing.

[pearscot]

Is it just me or has it been sweltering in the CAA?? I hate to rely on models so much, however the temperatures as indicated on windy.com have had several of the larger islands in the 50-60f range. I can't say I doubt it that much given the blue hue of the ice, but this entire season is just so strange and lot like the others in my opinion.

[johnm33]

'active garlic press' hycoms sss has been showing flow through for some time, increased salinity and above -1.8c suggests some bottom melt. Look also out in Beaufort where the salinity is falling, i'm reading that as Atl. waters penetrating-causing some melt- then flowing through the channels-all of them. Given weather patterns persisting we could see not just Nares opening up around 05:07 [07:05US] and then the ice free of the coast by August?

link to an earlier sss 06:05iirc

[gerontocrat]

Is it just me or has it been sweltering in the CAA?? I hate to rely on models so much, however the temperatures as indicated on windy.com have had several of the larger islands in the 50-60f range. I can't say I doubt it that much given the blue hue of the ice, but this entire season is just so strange and lot like the others in my opinion.

If you look at my recent postings on the Greenland SMB & Melting thread, you will see that the CAA / NE Canada / Northern Greenland region has been warm to stinky-poo hot in the last week or two, and looks like staying the same for some time.

[oren]

Is it just me or has it been sweltering in the CAA?? I hate to rely on models so much, however the temperatures as indicated on windy.com have had several of the larger islands in the 50-60f range. I can't say I doubt it that much given the blue hue of the ice, but this entire season is just so strange and lot like the others in my opinion.

r
No need to doubt, the CAA has quite a few weather stations and you can view daily and even hourly temperatures online. Here's a map showing these weather stations and the max temps (C, not F) for June 26th. Sweltering indeed.

[Ice Shieldz]

The CAA channels have not been moving, and Hycom is not good with this sort of thing.

This begs the question, what kind of thing(s) is Hycom good for? I have been corrected on this forum for using Hycom because of its inconsistency over time, especially when comparing more current years with previous years within the Hycom archive. So i have shied away from it since. I noticed others referring to it a lot. Including Randall Gates on twitter who said the following about the Hycom animation below.

At the end of this Hycom+CICE model animation of current #Arctic sea ice thickness, everything not light blue, yellow or green will be gone by the September low.

PS: Randall Gates Twitter bio reads: Science advocate and communicator about climate change.
click to animate

[Niall Dollard]

No need to doubt, the CAA has quite a few weather stations and you can view daily and even hourly temperatures online. Here's a map showing these weather stations and the max temps (C, not F) for June 26th. Sweltering indeed.

No doubt some very warm temperatures. But I was a bit taken back by the Eureka temperature shown which is very close to record June temperature.

Closer inspection on weatherobs website shows there are synops from 2 sites at Eureka.

71917 and 71613

At time of posting 71917 is showing 17 C (following a supposed record June max of 19.1 C) while 71613 is showing 8 C following a max of 12.3 C.

Big difference over a short distance.

Going especially by the Tmins I think the data from 71917 is totally wrong.

[Frivolousz21]

The Euro is showing a potential heat massacre into the Laptev/Kara but mostly the laptev then into the central Arctic/Atlantic side.

This is an insane Southerly flow bringing enormous heat into the Arctic basin.

Based on the euro there won't be an inversion at the surface as the extreme WAA is coming along a solid wind fetch and is not flowing directly from extreme warm land to ice.

It's going to travel over a huge fetch of open water that gradually cools from 7-10C close too the shore down towards freezing as it meets the ice edge.

Two things are going to take place that matter.

The open water itself is going to freaking IGNITE.

We will probably see SSTs jump 4-5C after day one of the intrusion over the entire open fetch.

This might get even warmer if the fetch of low level heat comes with full solar backing.

If we manage 3 days of WAA we will see SSTs jump tremendously but also the depth of the heat in the water.


This sets the stage for a jumping point of having very warm water eat away at the ice edge during proper wind events.


Also if the WAA pushed towards the pole the ice surface will immediately be inundated with large melt lakes.

We are talking about a period of potential sun with 2-3C surface temps mixing down to the ice surface all the way to the pole.

Those temps + sun = 5-8CM surface loss a day on average if ALBEDO is roughly 30-50 percent reflective between the lakes and bare ice.

And this isn't the only area getting hit hard.

[Frivolousz21]

No need to doubt, the CAA has quite a few weather stations and you can view daily and even hourly temperatures online. Here's a map showing these weather stations and the max temps (C, not F) for June 26th. Sweltering indeed.

No doubt some very warm temperatures. But I was a bit taken back by the Eureka temperature shown which is very close to record June temperature.

Closer inspection on weatherobs website shows there are synops from 2 sites at Eureka.

71917 and 71613

At time of posting 71917 is showing 17 C (following a supposed record June max of 19.1 C) while 71613 is showing 8 C following a max of 12.3 C.

Big difference over a short distance.

Going especially by the Tmins I think the data from 71917 is totally wrong.

could be be an elevation difference?

[Frivolousz21]

The Canadian Arctic archipelago has already started to see the effect of the down sloping southerly winds on the surface of the ice in a Southern Canadian basin.

This lasts or at least another 72-120 hours.

This is the top way to achieve major surface ice melt over the Southern CAB.

The winds really are veered ESE to SE blowing NW into the CAB.

Based on Canadian topography this is actually the best setup you could ask for or downsloping winds.

We can see on the graphic below that the eastern half of the Canadian Arctic archipelago islands have a much higher elevation than the Western half.

Wow one would assume there would be some cooling from the wind blowing directly over the ice caps on the islands.

I don't know what level of effect that has on the temperature.

But it clearly isn't a big inhibitor because the DOWNSLOPING affect shows up on the temp graphics in the near surface lower troposphere.

The beginning affects are already evident on multiple images on this page

We will get a relatively clear view on modis the next 3-4 days as the clouds vanish over the region.

There is no doubt that this can have a proper HUGE affect on the ice thickness in this region.

In large part because the ice is thicker and the melt ponds and lakes won't immediately drain.

[Aluminium]

June 22-26.

2019.

[Niall Dollard]

could be be an elevation difference?

They are both down as 10m. Still showing a difference of 7 C beteeen the 2 stations.

[Eco-Author]

We go'en under 2 million... who's with me... CHECK~ Hey, don't mean to go away without sayen, right.  I think Paul Beckwith is proving right...
<Paul Beckwith's speculations should be discussed in a different thread. Global sea ice is irrelevant to the Arctic melting season. O>

[Eco-Author]

Friv - btw all <3 EXCELLENT - points out Laptev will have high anomolies.  My very limited knowledge of the way patterns work is that it will keep coming back to that spot almost like imprinting a pattern... I at least remember this on the much colder 500mb level where it would always circle back to catch taht cold spot...  Guess to sum.  once hot, is that not itself an attractor to still more flow??  Thnx!  just wait till other's see this... What page is this...