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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1900 on: June 27, 2020, 07:09:24 PM »
Images culled from NSIDCs ice comparison tool, June 26 2020 versus the same date for 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018.  These comparisons tend to show the same general pattern, as do the intervening years, namely: more ice in the Beaufort and on the Atlantic margin this year, less along the Siberian coast.  The open water in the Laptev this year is particularly striking.  Mentioned before by several contributors, but I am a visual person and these images may help others like me...
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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1901 on: June 27, 2020, 07:10:18 PM »
AWP anomaly (vs. 20 year avg.) in the CAB goes positive for the first time in a month.

All of the Siberian seas and CAA running significant positive anomalies while Beaufort Sea has a persistent negative anomaly. Luckily, Alaska has been avoiding the extreme heat wave phenomenon of other Arctic locales this year.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

(relevant charts at the bottom of the linked page)

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1902 on: June 27, 2020, 07:20:26 PM »
Is it just me or has it been sweltering in the CAA?? I hate to rely on models so much, however the temperatures as indicated on windy.com have had several of the larger islands in the 50-60f range. I can't say I doubt it that much given the blue hue of the ice, but this entire season is just so strange and lot like the others in my opinion.
r
No need to doubt, the CAA has quite a few weather stations and you can view daily and even hourly temperatures online. Here's a map showing these weather stations and the max temps (C, not F) for June 26th. Sweltering indeed.

Wow, thanks for posting that! I don't know why it escaped me to look for the actual weather stations in that region lol.

ANYWAYS, that is pretty wild. I can't say I remember seeing almost endless warm injected into the CAA such as it is right now. I checked today and it's just as warm as ever. I do find what's going on in Barrow quite interesting because the landfast ice remains, however (again something I've never seen before) are how the ice has just completely melted out along the shoreline.

This year sure is something and there is insane melting north of Baffin Bay. Even Northern Greenland has been in the 50f's.
pls!

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1903 on: June 27, 2020, 07:39:23 PM »
Worldview shows the ice in the Nares Strait is flowing all the way from top to bottom from the Lincoln sea towards Baffin bay. All the ice arches have failed.

The wild waves in the jet stream are importing hot, relatively humid air from the continents over the Arctic ocean, as Friv has colorfully detailed. This is going to get interesting because a lot of the ice this year that's present in areas where it had melted out in 2012, 2016 and 2019 is in areas where it will melt out. The recent wind direction shifts and low pressure has dispersed ice, so there's also the potential for compaction.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1904 on: June 27, 2020, 08:00:18 PM »
Has there been some refreeze in the ESS?  Or is this old refreeze? Or not.  Second image is for locating the first 'closeup'.  Worldview 06/27/2020.
I am too inexperienced to tell, or to know if this is even possible at this point in the year.  Whatever it is, this ??? refreeze ??? ice seems present over much of the ESS 'rubble ice field'.  Will gladly receive an education on this. 
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 08:06:14 PM by Pagophilus »
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1905 on: June 27, 2020, 08:15:54 PM »
No new sea ice is created in the ESS in June. Too warm. But why do you think this is refreeze ice? Maybe the recent dispersion into the ESS, caused by the storm, is confusing things?


be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1906 on: June 27, 2020, 08:18:20 PM »
Hi Pagophilus can you show an earlier shot of it before it 'froze' for comparison , as I'm not sure anything much has changed .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1907 on: June 27, 2020, 09:15:54 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Click to play
Large file!
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1908 on: June 27, 2020, 09:38:02 PM »
So far temperatures in Siberia haven't been as hot anymore as before the fire season started in earnest. I wonder if that's just a coincidence, due to the weather, or if the smoke is causing a temperature drop. It would be logical that if we had high temperatures because of clean air, that dirty air from all that smoke would lower them again. If they stay lower than they have been pre-fire season, this could be another negative feedback loop, no? Not that these fires will do any good long term, or for the melting season as that black carbon gets dropped on the ice, but what do you think? Is smoke from more extreme fire seasons a negative feedback loop?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1909 on: June 27, 2020, 09:57:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

All that heat just constantly over where the only remaining old ice is, just scary.  I wonder if the thicker ice is going to get wrecked again like in 2007.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1910 on: June 27, 2020, 10:32:52 PM »
So far temperatures in Siberia haven't been as hot anymore as before the fire season started in earnest. I wonder if that's just a coincidence, due to the weather, or if the smoke is causing a temperature drop. It would be logical that if we had high temperatures because of clean air, that dirty air from all that smoke would lower them again. If they stay lower than they have been pre-fire season, this could be another negative feedback loop, no? Not that these fires will do any good long term, or for the melting season as that black carbon gets dropped on the ice, but what do you think? Is smoke from more extreme fire seasons a negative feedback loop?
It is without any doubt negative feedback short-term - "then and there". Cleaner air means hotter surface, while air with more particulates of any sort (smoke, aerosols of all kinds, clouds, what have you) means cooler (than otherwise expected) surface, "then and there".

That said, forest fires in Arctic itself cause more than just "make lots of air dirty again". Those throw up serious amounts of GHGs, too - i mean high local concentrations of those gases. Something which is not done by "usual amounts of aerosols" travelling to the Arctic from NH's industrial belt: those come with GHGs already dilluted down to pretty background GHG levels. And, as you mentioned, soot on ice is another, if "a bit delayed", effect.

And then there are of course many other differencies between "industrial aerosols" and smoke from forest fires, as well, which are presumably not as strong as above ones but still significant enough to worth a mention at times. Like, for example, lots more black soot in forest smoke than in industrial outputs due to way more efficient (than just burning some wood in open air) combustion of fuels which industries perform, and lack of any soot-filtering equipment over forest fires (obviously). Black soot absorbs way better than most other aerosols, resulting in generally more heat trapped within troposphere which then has further (mostly unpleasant) effects for sea ice further into melt season. Etc.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1911 on: June 27, 2020, 10:39:20 PM »
At first glance, that was an area which froze last year when a few days before it had been actively melting, and had had large areas of open water interspersed with partially melted-out MYI floes. This year the thin FYI melted all-at-once, and it's deja-vu all over again. 

Has there been some refreeze in the ESS?  Or is this old refreeze? Or not.  Second image is for locating the first 'closeup'.  Worldview 06/27/2020.
I am too inexperienced to tell, or to know if this is even possible at this point in the year.  Whatever it is, this ??? refreeze ??? ice seems present over much of the ESS 'rubble ice field'.  Will gladly receive an education on this.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1912 on: June 27, 2020, 11:24:07 PM »
The 12z euro is pretty bad, especially that hellish WAA coming from the region with warmest anomaly in 2020, blowing over Laptev well into CAB from day 3 to 5, and the continued roast of CAA. The end of the run is as epic as unreliable, I guess.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1913 on: June 27, 2020, 11:29:10 PM »
Quote from: Gandul   At first glance, that was an area which froze last year when a few days before it had been actively melting, and had had large areas of open water interspersed with partially melted-out MYI floes. This year the thin FYI melted all-at-once, and it's deja-vu all over again.

Quote from: Pagophilus on Today at 08:00:18 PM
Has there been some refreeze in the ESS?  Or is this old refreeze? Or not.  Second image is for locating the first 'closeup'.  Worldview 06/27/2020.
I am too inexperienced to tell, or to know if this is even possible at this point in the year.  Whatever it is, this ??? refreeze ??? ice seems present over much of the ESS 'rubble ice field'.  Will gladly receive an education on this.

 

.. and although Jac lacked GAC status it certainly had (and continues to have) local oomph , including lowering temperatures esp. at 850mb but at sea level too . The GAC in August 2016 brought lower temps throughout the basin and (in my opinion) brought the melting season to an unexpectedly rapid end . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1914 on: June 27, 2020, 11:32:33 PM »
...followed by the slowest refreezing season on record...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1915 on: June 27, 2020, 11:50:41 PM »
.. and if that Euro were to be realized Kara would be ice-free in 10 days . The Laptev wouldn't be far behind and there would be little thick ice hiding behind islands .It ends with a much weakened and warmed CAA being tested .
  The gfs has become progressively warmer with each forecast today as well .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1916 on: June 28, 2020, 12:08:18 AM »
No new sea ice is created in the ESS in June. Too warm. But why do you think this is refreeze ice? Maybe the recent dispersion into the ESS, caused by the storm, is confusing things?

Thank you for the response, Oren.  Obviously I am mistaken.  I was thought I was observing thinner gray ice that seemed to have formed between the larger, white, angular floes.   I guess it could be some other type of older, thinner ice that is trapped between the floes, all driven together by wind?
 
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1917 on: June 28, 2020, 12:31:46 AM »
I appreciated everyone's responses regarding the warmth in the CAA so I've gone back and done some comparisons and the heat has certainly made a substantial difference. What's going on in the strait is not unique and the entire region is beginning to fracture.

Moreover, I'm very surprised by the damage/dispersion the last storm did to the ice; that will have have an impact on the ice as it mixes more with the warm surface water+heat from Siberia. If you find this surprising, just look at the decimation of the ice around the Lena River delta...it's far more dramatic.

Plus it's 60f along a substantial portion of the north Alaskan coast...the heat is always unrelenting in some portion of the arctic this year.
pls!

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1918 on: June 28, 2020, 01:08:34 AM »
Up to 63F now pearscot.  A new record high!  Alaska has been on the cool side so far this melt season, but it is catching up fast.

For those of you who don’t know him, Brian is a PhD climatologist, and he is the state climatologist for Alaska.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1919 on: June 28, 2020, 01:31:55 AM »
So far temperatures in Siberia haven't been as hot anymore as before the fire season started in earnest. I wonder if that's just a coincidence, due to the weather, or if the smoke is causing a temperature drop. It would be logical that if we had high temperatures because of clean air, that dirty air from all that smoke would lower them again. If they stay lower than they have been pre-fire season, this could be another negative feedback loop, no? Not that these fires will do any good long term, or for the melting season as that black carbon gets dropped on the ice, but what do you think? Is smoke from more extreme fire seasons a negative feedback loop?
It is without any doubt negative feedback short-term - "then and there". Cleaner air means hotter surface, while air with more particulates of any sort (smoke, aerosols of all kinds, clouds, what have you) means cooler (than otherwise expected) surface, "then and there".

That said, forest fires in Arctic itself cause more than just "make lots of air dirty again". Those throw up serious amounts of GHGs, too - i mean high local concentrations of those gases. Something which is not done by "usual amounts of aerosols" travelling to the Arctic from NH's industrial belt: those come with GHGs already dilluted down to pretty background GHG levels. And, as you mentioned, soot on ice is another, if "a bit delayed", effect.

And then there are of course many other differencies between "industrial aerosols" and smoke from forest fires, as well, which are presumably not as strong as above ones but still significant enough to worth a mention at times. Like, for example, lots more black soot in forest smoke than in industrial outputs due to way more efficient (than just burning some wood in open air) combustion of fuels which industries perform, and lack of any soot-filtering equipment over forest fires (obviously). Black soot absorbs way better than most other aerosols, resulting in generally more heat trapped within troposphere which then has further (mostly unpleasant) effects for sea ice further into melt season. Etc.
I think you nailed it FT. Although I do think that you forgot one particular warming effect from those fires, and that is that those fires also create areas that are much darker, and void of plantlife, which leaves the underlying permafrost more vulnerable to melt.

But I do think it's important to understand why we probably won't see those those high Siberian temperatures anymore this season, and that could be a positive amongst all the bad things those fire cause. Let's keep an eye on that.

Anyway... I wouldn't want to live in Siberia right now. That smoke can't be very healthy for the people and the wildlife that is living there.  :'(
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1920 on: June 28, 2020, 01:56:25 AM »
Has there been some refreeze in the ESS?  Or is this old refreeze? Or not.  Second image is for locating the first 'closeup'.  Worldview 06/27/2020.
I am too inexperienced to tell, or to know if this is even possible at this point in the year.  Whatever it is, this ??? refreeze ??? ice seems present over much of the ESS 'rubble ice field'.  Will gladly receive an education on this.

There is no new ice. As pointed out by Oren, dispersion. Maybe you meant refreeze of melt ponds? That might happen temporally now that ESS will see colder temps for a few days.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1921 on: June 28, 2020, 01:59:01 AM »
This DMI volume graph hasn't been posted for a while, and although the numbers may be disputable, the trend sure is record breaking.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1922 on: June 28, 2020, 02:28:58 AM »
The warm downsloping low that's coming off of far Northern Canada and Greenland into the Canadian Arctic Basin is amazing.


Just look at it the color distortion on the graphic I'm posting below.

While it's not as dark blue as the CAA.  You can clearly see the defined area with a downsloping warm is pummeling the southern cab ice.

don't expect this ice in the southern Captain melt out however because of this the albedo will be dramatically lower going for most of July and probably parts of August.

on top of that because he ice there is thick like 2.5-4M+ thick the melt ponds and lakes probably won't drain immediately and probably persist throughout most of the summer.

The Sun also started to break out today and ask the ridge of high pressure expands and presses into the Arctic Basin by tomorrow most of the cab will be clear just in time for peak heating in the Southern CAB which is 15Z-21Z utc.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1923 on: June 28, 2020, 02:48:11 AM »
Wow the GFS has really caught up to the euro.

If not even warmer in the 96-192 hour range because it blows up a huge Ridge over the Beaufort region extending over the central Arctic.

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HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1924 on: June 28, 2020, 04:04:14 AM »
It's still a bit early but to me it feels like the spinning top is wobbling even more than usual.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1925 on: June 28, 2020, 04:45:18 AM »
Wow the GFS has really caught up to the euro.

If not even warmer in the 96-192 hour range because it blows up a huge Ridge over the Beaufort region extending over the central Arctic.
That's an awful forecast, and 96 hours out it is going to be fairly reliable.

If it sets up and persists as the models are indicating it's going to be a lot of trouble.

What you think?  5cm/day top melt where there are melt ponds?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1926 on: June 28, 2020, 05:33:47 AM »
Wow the GFS has really caught up to the euro.

If not even warmer in the 96-192 hour range because it blows up a huge Ridge over the Beaufort region extending over the central Arctic.
That's an awful forecast, and 96 hours out it is going to be fairly reliable.

If it sets up and persists as the models are indicating it's going to be a lot of trouble.

What you think?  5cm/day top melt where there are melt ponds?

It's being attacked from both surface melt and bottom melt. Any open water at this point is really chipping away it everything:
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1927 on: June 28, 2020, 09:46:42 AM »
At 00Z UTC THE TOWN FORMALLY KNOWN AS POINT BARROW, ALASKA HAD AN INCREDIBLE SOUNDING.  ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE FOR THE ICE ALONG THE COAST AND ANYWHERE INTO THE BEAUFORT HOWEVER FAR THE SOUTHERLY FLOW GOES.

AT THE SURFACE PB RECORDED:

190° ---- 11KT WIND ---- ESSENTIALLY DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURE:  15.8C ---- DEWPOINT:  5.8C


ALSO AT 00Z UTC THE OUTPOST KNOWN AS EUREKA, CANADA, NORTH AMERICA, NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, EARTH, SOL SOLAR SYSTEM, MILKY WAY GALAXY, PRIME UNIVERSE, UNKNOWN PROPERTIES....

AT THE SURFACE EUREKA RECORDED:.

110° ---- 4KT WIND ---- WIND IS DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURE:  14.0C. DEWPOINT:  3.0C

THE WIND AT 4KTS ISNT VERY STRONG.  WINDS NEAR SURFACE ARE 11-15KTS.


THE CITY KNOWN AS RESOLUTE CANADA AT 00Z UTC:

90° ---- 31KTS WINDS OUT OF THE EAST

TEMPERATURE: 6.8C. DEWPOINT: 4.0C

Just nasty.

The 00z euro at at day 10 has an amazingly bad set up for the ice

To bad it won't happen







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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1928 on: June 28, 2020, 09:56:55 AM »
Add to that Isachsen, on Ellef Ringness Island at the CAA border of the CAB, reporting ~14C and dewpoint ~7C, with the wind at ~13kt from the east.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1929 on: June 28, 2020, 04:38:22 PM »
hmm. Early view of lincoln sea today.  https://go.nasa.gov/31peJvS
updated
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 07:11:24 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1930 on: June 28, 2020, 05:20:05 PM »
2019 vs. 2020 comparison. Click it.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1931 on: June 28, 2020, 07:00:54 PM »
Last week's ice drift map. Give it a click.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1932 on: June 28, 2020, 07:01:52 PM »
7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies. Clicking for looking.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1933 on: June 28, 2020, 07:02:47 PM »
Fram export via SAR. Clickable.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1934 on: June 28, 2020, 07:11:36 PM »
The Laptev Sea is somewhere in another world. Temperature will be high enough to swim soon.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1935 on: June 28, 2020, 07:23:38 PM »
hmm. Early view of lincoln sea today.  https://go.nasa.gov/31peJvS
updated

From the RAMMB-SLIDER, 24 frames, 204-minutes increments, I2 band. Lincoln and upper Nares.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1936 on: June 28, 2020, 07:39:40 PM »
hmm. Early view of lincoln sea today.  https://go.nasa.gov/31peJvS
updated

From the RAMMB-SLIDER, 24 frames, 204-minutes increments, I2 band. Lincoln and upper Nares.

Oh my, that's supposed to be the thickest and oldest ice and yes, there are the downsloping winds that Friv is talking about, but wow it just shifts towards the west and cracks open. My guess is it's too thick to melt out even with all the heat and preconditioning, but if the CAB  continues to disperse like that, and push the thinner ice around it out into warmer waters, it could have a big effect on end of season area and volume.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1937 on: June 28, 2020, 08:30:45 PM »
From today till day 5 warmth gradually filling up the Arctic
Edit was supposed to be a gif, nevermind
 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp
Edit2. I don’t want to comment on day 6 and 7 , just have a look yourselves
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 08:39:59 PM by gandul »

Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1938 on: June 28, 2020, 09:17:07 PM »
The GFS forecast for July 2nd looks afwul. The clear skies, the Laptev bite marches to the Pole, ice dispersion in the ESS where the dispersed ice pack will melt out completely for sure

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1939 on: June 28, 2020, 09:53:50 PM »
Friv will give you some CAPSLOCK SENTENCES  when he sees the 12Z ECMWF :) Actually, it is quite lethal (hot and sunny) from day 3 and gets worse/better (depending on your point of view):

 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1940 on: June 28, 2020, 10:41:58 PM »
20C in Eureka again today. Hasn't dropped below 13C there for several days. (Yesterday's high was 21C/70F).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1941 on: June 28, 2020, 10:46:24 PM »
Oh my, that's supposed to be the thickest and oldest ice.... My guess is it's too thick to melt out even with all the heat and preconditioning...

The ice that just broke up is not the thickest. CryoSat measured the mobile ice at around 2 meters (a few months ago). The thicker stuff is in the eastern part of the lincoln sea (and other various spots along the CAA), and that stuff has stayed put for now.

The fear is that as the CAA gets the blowtorch and the CAB ice adjacent becomes mobile, the thick ice will export south thru the CAA via the "garlic press". It would likely begin in August and last into November.
big time oops

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1942 on: June 28, 2020, 11:23:03 PM »
I wanted to post this as soon as I came across it.

PIOMAS actually published the cryosat ice thickness and then they posted a graph of piomas versus cryosat.

I have read on here many times that ice volume is to high going into this melt season for 2020 to be a bottom 3 year.

And yet right next to the piomas data was the cryosat data and I do not recall this being posted at all

If I am wrong I apologize.  However it's kind of gets my goat because the same person or people who have touted the higher pIOMAS SEA Ice volume ignored this.

While also saying that most of us on here are biased towards anomalous melt predictions.

And yet if you actually check reality versus our 48 year reliable satellite record.

The live data right now is highly anomalous towards anomalous melt. 


If sea ice extent an area were currently like 30th lowest on record and we were saying the same thing that would be a bias.  it's hard to call it a bias when sea ice extent in the area have been running in the bottom three the last month.



But it kind of makes me mad because the PIOMAs ice volume has been posted and talked about and I formed my opinions based around that while looking at the data when cryosAt was published right next to it showing a much different PICTURE.

Below is cryosat anomalous thickness for April.

Then a comparison of the two for April.

Then piomas anomolous thickness for May.

It looks like Cryosat was 3rd lowest on its record barely above 2012 and 2013?

But when you compare the two the difference is quite large.

One is a model and one is real life data...both verified but why haven't we seen the cryosat data touted in this thread.  But I'm bias. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1943 on: June 28, 2020, 11:26:51 PM »
Friv will give you some CAPSLOCK SENTENCES  when he sees the 12Z ECMWF :) Actually, it is quite lethal (hot and sunny) from day 3 and gets worse/better (depending on your point of view):

!!!!

Holy smokes Batman! The 12Z Euro is one of the worst forecasts I have ever seen for the ice this time of year (granted I've only been reviewing the models for 2-3 years). Major HP dome setting up directly over the CAB starting d1-3 and continuing throughout run, with WAA blowtorch coming in through Laptev on top of that with pretty intense anomalies settling over central CAB afterward, tracking with HP. Also a weak low over the Barents and North Atlantic could increase export into the Atlantic.

!!!!!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1944 on: June 28, 2020, 11:36:51 PM »
As others have have said the euro forecast is amazing.

It's not a dipole anomaly.

It's worse.

It's THANOS with the INFINITY GAUNTLET WITH ALL 6 STONES ABOUT TO SNAP THE ICE OUT OF EXISTENCE.

The 12z euro below from day 2 to day 10.

Might have to click to animate.  Never going to happen.

But if it does the best part will be the clear sky modis images of almost the entire basin.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1945 on: June 29, 2020, 12:22:15 AM »
I wanted to post this as soon as I came across it.

PIOMAS actually published the cryosat ice thickness and then they posted a graph of piomas versus cryosat.

I have read on here many times that ice volume is to high going into this melt season for 2020 to be a bottom 3 year.

And yet right next to the piomas data was the cryosat data and I do not recall this being posted at all

If I am wrong I apologize.  However it's kind of gets my goat because the same person or people who have touted the higher pIOMAS SEA Ice volume ignored this.

While also saying that most of us on here are biased towards anomalous melt predictions.

And yet if you actually check reality versus our 48 year reliable satellite record.

The live data right now is highly anomalous towards anomalous melt. 


If sea ice extent an area were currently like 30th lowest on record and we were saying the same thing that would be a bias.  it's hard to call it a bias when sea ice extent in the area have been running in the bottom three the last month.



But it kind of makes me mad because the PIOMAs ice volume has been posted and talked about and I formed my opinions based around that while looking at the data when cryosAt was published right next to it showing a much different PICTURE.

Below is cryosat anomalous thickness for April.

Then a comparison of the two for April.

Then piomas anomolous thickness for May.

It looks like Cryosat was 3rd lowest on its record barely above 2012 and 2013?

But when you compare the two the difference is quite large.

One is a model and one is real life data...both verified but why haven't we seen the cryosat data touted in this thread.  But I'm bias.

Is this the thread for a PIOMAS vs. Cryosat debate? Probably not.

PIOMAS has been the volume standard here for some good reasons and I suspect that Neven was pretty well informed on the topic of volume measurement. If you think the PIOMAS results don't make sense, let's debate that over at the PIOMAS thread. Perhaps subject matter experts like Wipneus could join in that conversation since he posts there.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1947 on: June 29, 2020, 01:29:17 AM »
One is a model and one is real life data...both verified but why haven't we seen the cryosat data touted in this thread?

Real life sometimes doesn't conform to the most frictionless group narrative. Welcome to 2020. We have arrived.

The really crazy part will be when the arctic does melt out completely, half the stories in the mainstream will be about shipping lanes and the other half about 2100 sea level rise.  >:(
big time oops

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1948 on: June 29, 2020, 04:53:57 AM »
it just happened...the final breakup at Utqiagvik! I have been awaiting all summer and tbh I did miss my own self imposed projection of this being the earliest breakup. That said; I think this is similar to the Lena Delta where it just evaporates overnight
pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1949 on: June 29, 2020, 04:58:35 AM »
From today till day 5 warmth gradually filling up the Arctic
Edit was supposed to be a gif, nevermind
 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp
Edit2. I don’t want to comment on day 6 and 7 , just have a look yourselves
Okay, so I don't click on links often, but anyone who's Frazzledrightaboutnow I trusted enough to click on the link... 133 over Beaufort where its not looking so white, CHECK!

<Edited down the very unclear stream-of-consciousness output. And yes Paul Beckwith should be discussed elsewhere. O>
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 08:19:20 AM by oren »
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