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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1950 on: June 29, 2020, 06:09:07 AM »
Years ago when Cryosat team were presenting at the Paris Air show they talked some rubbish. I recall that on that occasion their system interpreted rugged, compacted sea ice as multiyear ice, whereas the thick flat multiyear ice that appeared in satellite photos was interpreted as first year ice. I wonder if something of the like still lingers on it, but would doubt as I and Peter Wadhams made a bit melee of it. Eventually Peter told me to quieten the dispute down and not to steam them anymore to get calm. On that occasion the compacted ice on the Atlantic front was interpreted as multi-year ice, while ice north east and north of the Taimyr Peninsula on the Central Arctic Basin was presented as single year ice. I suppose, the issue was better radar reflection from tilted ice floes acting as better mirrors of radar rays.

Interesting question Friv has raised, perhaps I shouldn't raise old skeletons from cup board. Hopefully, nobody offended on above. I have not recently been following photos closely enough to judge matter. Meeting later today the deputy of UN Secretary-General António Guterres as the monsoon in Asia has stalled with Australian-forest-burning-like major event now occurring on the north side of the Hadley Cells and starting to raise international tensions over Co2 concentrations' effect on the main rice growing belt of Asia. I am tentatively suggesting the warming Arctic may also be contributing to monsoon change. More action on fossils needed
I wanted to post this as soon as I came across it. PIOMAS actually published the cryosat ice thickness and then they posted a graph of piomas versus cryosat.
...
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1951 on: June 29, 2020, 08:30:56 AM »
To be clear: PIOMAS is a model but assimilates a lot of measured data. Cryosat is a measurement but relies on a lot of models for interpretation of the radar signals (e.g. unknown snow thickness). Both have their upsides and downsides, but certainly when Cryosat says volume was much lower than PIOMAS this is a very important piece of information. Obviously a biased poster would not be stressing that point, but all are already aware of the bias so should not be discussed here.
I should note the low Cryosat volume was discussed at the time in the "Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume" thread, which I have only discovered after the discussions were over. The mapped comparison with PIOMAS was posted in the "PIOMAS vs. Cryosat" thread.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1952 on: June 29, 2020, 09:08:04 AM »
June 24-28.

2019.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1953 on: June 29, 2020, 09:35:17 AM »
The 12z euro below from day 2 to day 10.
Just day 1-4 (June 30 through July 3) is bad enough, and that's high reliability.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1954 on: June 29, 2020, 10:09:53 AM »
The 00z EC run is just as bad as the 12z run. The main question should be for how long the bad weather will persist? Ten days would clearly have a very big impact given that the suns power is starting to fade.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1955 on: June 29, 2020, 10:30:43 AM »
No denying the output is a largely high pressure one but where the high ends up could be crucial.

If it ends up towards the Beaufort sea then that would be bad news for the ice as it increases the chances of the dipole. If it stays over the CAB it may not be as bad as there be less of a feed from the landmasses albeit initially there is very warm winds coming in from Laptev. Some runs diid have the high breaking down with troughing but today runs have dropped that so far.

However one thing this high may do is reduce further dispersion which we saw what the deepish low did and this is why I always say low pressure is good for the ice and high pressure is bad is probably too simplistic.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1956 on: June 29, 2020, 12:48:46 PM »
In the past few hours, ice has begun to melt rapidly in the Barrow area.

pleun

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1957 on: June 29, 2020, 01:27:57 PM »
look at the past 24 hours video. it was blown away by wind.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1958 on: June 29, 2020, 01:39:26 PM »
look at the past 24 hours video. it was blown away by wind.

Thanks, I agree.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1277291190967136258

Quote
Sea ice has melted away in the southern Chukchi Sea but only limited changes this week north of 69N, so overall ice extent is now close to 1981-2010 average in @NSIDC  data. Slow melt in the Beaufort Sea with extent also very near average. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe



https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1276874450403639296

Quote
#Arctic sea ice extent in the Laptev Sea (near Siberia) continues to rapidly decline (earliest on record)... [Data from @NSIDC]



https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1277282784474619905

Quote
Temperatures over parts of Siberia and the Chukchi Sea (#Arctic) have averaged up to 4°C above the 1981-2010 climate average during the last 12 months [Data from JRA-55 reanalysis]


GAWLab

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1959 on: June 29, 2020, 02:49:29 PM »
This has been an unprecedented week here in Alert.  Freshet lasted only a couple of days this year.  Virtually all our snow cover is already gone, and it's not even July.  We also broke the Tmax record for June 28th, as well as the entire month of June, with yesterday's reading of 18.6 degrees, only two degrees shy of the overall record, which was set last summer.

I'm currently working in a t-shirt.  Feels quite strange...
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marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1960 on: June 29, 2020, 02:54:35 PM »
...

Meeting later today the deputy of UN Secretary-General António Guterres as the monsoon in Asia has stalled with Australian-forest-burning-like major event now occurring on the north side of the Hadley Cells and starting to raise international tensions over Co2 concentrations' effect on the main rice growing belt of Asia. I am tentatively suggesting the warming Arctic may also be contributing to monsoon change. More action on fossils needed
...

Uh, wow, that's a major development if true, and maybe decades earlier than anticipated, and maybe that's a topic for a different thread.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1961 on: June 29, 2020, 03:56:19 PM »
The dangerous situation in the Laptev Sea has been observed for the second year in a row.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1962 on: June 29, 2020, 04:59:21 PM »
In 2012, there was much more ice on the Siberian side.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1963 on: June 29, 2020, 06:01:11 PM »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1964 on: June 29, 2020, 06:38:03 PM »
Moreover, according to other sources, north of Barrow there should not be old ice now. Unlike 2012.

wili

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1965 on: June 29, 2020, 07:25:17 PM »
Maybe this should go in the 'stupid questions' thread, but there are reports of lots of forest fires in Siberia after the big heat wave. Are those likely to deposit wind-blown ash on parts of the sea ice, changing albedo and leading to even faster melt?

Warning Sign of Major Proportions': Number of Siberian Forest Fires Increase Fivefold in Week Since Record High Temperature

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/06/27/warning-sign-major-proportions-number-siberian-forest-fires-increase-fivefold-week
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1966 on: June 29, 2020, 07:51:23 PM »
Hi Wili,  Not a stupid question. The sooty parts of the ash that land on the ice will cause the overall albedo to decrease. The resulting meltwater further decreases the albedo.... positive feedback

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1967 on: June 29, 2020, 07:52:20 PM »
This should be discussed in another thread.

Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1968 on: June 29, 2020, 08:40:28 PM »
it just happened...the final breakup at Utqiagvik! I have been awaiting all summer and tbh I did miss my own self imposed projection of this being the earliest breakup. That said; I think this is similar to the Lena Delta where it just evaporates overnight

If you look carefully there are mountains (literally) of ice ridges a few meters out that given a wind change will drift in and can last another 5-15 days. ( has been like this not only once )

Nevertheless i thought about the same line, was waiting for it and watching every day and bang it happend, blown out by the wind. Let's see whether that ice out there will be blown back or will be driven away to melt.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 08:45:59 PM by igs »
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1969 on: June 30, 2020, 12:21:29 AM »
This has been an unprecedented week here in Alert.  Freshet lasted only a couple of days this year.  Virtually all our snow cover is already gone, and it's not even July.  We also broke the Tmax record for June 28th, as well as the entire month of June, with yesterday's reading of 18.6 degrees, only two degrees shy of the overall record, which was set last summer.

I'm currently working in a t-shirt.  Feels quite strange...

Holy smokes. Thanks for the post. I've been paying attention to the obs up there via ADDS the past week or so but I didn't realize it had gotten that high in the off-observation hours. Can imagine the melt has been rapid with those kinds of temps/dews and sunshine. Have there been many low clouds at all or has it been mostly just scattered high-level decks?


Csnavywx

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1970 on: June 30, 2020, 12:44:06 AM »
Some ridiculous soundings coming out of YLT and WEU (Alert and Eureka) the past couple of days. Below is an example from this morning at YLT. Aside from the lack of column moisture (due to crushing subsidence from the ridge) and near-surface inversion due to melt, this looks similar to subtropical soundings. Note the tropopause all the way up around 250mb and freezing level at 700mb (>3000m). Peak of +15C just a couple of hundred meters up.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1971 on: June 30, 2020, 02:43:59 AM »
That'll move some ice around...

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Comradez

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1972 on: June 30, 2020, 02:55:16 AM »
That's insane.

And in the next several days, the fast ice around Severnaya Zemlya is about to get blasted by warm air advection from the continent. 

And then 5-10 days out, the GFS has a fatality move in store for the Chukchi.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1973 on: June 30, 2020, 03:53:01 AM »
The Southern CAB is getting decimated.
The surface wet signal for that area is tremendous.

And the skies are clearing out.

In 3-4 days a huge sunny donut hold will be over the basin while we are still at peak INSOLATION.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1974 on: June 30, 2020, 05:34:21 AM »
Big drop in JAXA extent today. I'm always wrong about these things, but it's difficult to imagine 2020 not having opened up a decent lead over 2016, 2019 and 2012 by the end of next week given the forecast.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1975 on: June 30, 2020, 06:39:33 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
We are gonna have really strong persistent winds exporting a ton of ice out the Fram Strait to their untimely demise, while a massive high pressure dome over the entire arctic basin is going to provide 24 hr sunlight and heat during the time of max insolation, over the quickly moving and thinning ice?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1976 on: June 30, 2020, 07:04:42 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
We are gonna have really strong persistent winds exporting a ton of ice out the Fram Strait to their untimely demise, while a massive high pressure dome over the entire arctic basin is going to provide 24 hr sunlight and heat during the time of max insolation, over the quickly moving and thinning ice?

Assuming the models accurately reflect this upcoming week's realized developments, yeah unfortunately it looks like it's going to be as much of a haymaker punch as it sounds. That's a pretty wicked combo and I can only hope one or multiple of those factors do not present themselves or else I am suddenly even more pessimistic about the end of this season.

I'll be honest, I definitely had middle of the road season expectations after seeing the refreeze extent this winter, and I had hoped that it might minimize the implications of 2019's low minimum extent, but this June has been one massive wake up call that maximum extent and melting progression may not be as linked as I had previously considered. Buckle up, I guess, and we will see where we land in September.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1977 on: June 30, 2020, 07:25:17 AM »
Little bit of red, lotta bit of blue on the 6/22 Canuck maps (hopefully updating soon for 6/29).



This ice is thick, too. While it definitely looks to be degrading on satellite I would not be at all surprised to see a decent remnant persist into August (and if things go really well, early September)



Nevertheless, this dwindling of the now-somewhat anomalous extant ice remaining in Hudson Bay will add to the melt momentum in July.

Also, needs updating again, but % covered as of 6/22 was highest for the date in recent years since 2009. 2015 was almost the same, and 2002 was also greater (and 1996, and then early 90s on back).



Hudson Bay has been a pretty stark contrast to the rest of the Arctic this year and it will be interesting to see if it falls closer to the trend line or not when the graph updates to 6/29. In either case, it is standing in stark contrast to what has happened in the Laptev, ESS, and Kara this summer.

<Bolding mine. You say that every year, to no avail, and never revisit when the time comes. Hudson is very predictable, by August there will be less than 100k km2 of ice, by September, few bits and pieces. O>
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 08:32:02 AM by oren »

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1978 on: June 30, 2020, 07:46:30 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
We are gonna have really strong persistent winds exporting a ton of ice out the Fram Strait to their untimely demise, while a massive high pressure dome over the entire arctic basin is going to provide 24 hr sunlight and heat during the time of max insolation, over the quickly moving and thinning ice?

Add to that a serious heat pulse coming from over Siberia, likely further opening the already huge Siberian seas. We shall see the Pole without ice this year methinks...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1979 on: June 30, 2020, 07:47:27 AM »
New highest of June in Khatanga (72N 102E, +33.1°C) and Saskylakh (72N 114E, +32.7°C) yesterday. Daily average reached incredible +28.3°C in Khatanga.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1980 on: June 30, 2020, 07:47:39 AM »
Seems like the following may play out by october...

Near record low extent and area. Volume near record low. BUT there will be an anomalously high volume in the CAA that exported from the CAB. In other words, doomed ice. The CAB volume (in this scenario) would be at record lows.
big time oops

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1981 on: June 30, 2020, 08:26:36 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
<snippage>

... we will be seeing pretty optimal conditions for slaughtering the ice, across the entire basin and all peripheral seas.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1982 on: June 30, 2020, 09:18:42 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
<snippage>

... we will be seeing pretty optimal conditions for slaughtering the ice, across the entire basin and all peripheral seas.

One exception is the Western Beaufort Sea which is so far a stubborn holdout in an otherwise very strong melt season.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2anom_10-day.png

It's kinda weird how this region has dodged the worst of the Arctic heat this year.

aperson

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1983 on: June 30, 2020, 09:24:07 AM »
I feel like this is the Arctic equivalent of posting a cat 5 hurricane into Florida on a tropical weather forum. We have consensus on a strong high pressure dome building in place by D3. The Euro continues to just amplify it into D5 and beyond.
computer janitor by trade

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1984 on: June 30, 2020, 09:55:04 AM »
@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, your response should have come in a post apart. Otherwise you're taking moderator privilege to highlight your own response, while not really moderating. I say this from the greatest respect to your labor.
Taken this to the forum decorum

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1985 on: June 30, 2020, 10:12:45 AM »
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

In the last five years, while three seas go in the first place: Kara, Laptev and East Siberian.

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1986 on: June 30, 2020, 10:36:14 AM »
. Daily average reached incredible +28.3°C in Khatanga.

R U sure?

On wikipedia it says that the average June temperature for Khatanga is 5,7 C (average high 9,9  average low 2,6)

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1987 on: June 30, 2020, 10:50:56 AM »
. Daily average reached incredible +28.3°C in Khatanga.

R U sure?

On wikipedia it says that the average June temperature for Khatanga is 5,7 C (average high 9,9  average low 2,6)
As unbelievable as it is, Khatanga at 72N averaged ~28C on June 29th, ~18C above the average for the date which is ~10C. The same happened on June 30th, not yet shown in the chart.
Green line is average temp, light green is climatology.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 10:56:20 AM by oren »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1988 on: June 30, 2020, 01:17:55 PM »
A quick look at Beaufort ice drift from osi-saf for the current melt season. The 'ice gyre' seemingly repeatedly failing to get into gear.

Ice Age, mar-jun from uni-colorado via nsidc  click

Overview of march-april-may 2m temperatures and anomaly using ecmwf from climate reanalyser click
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 01:28:29 PM by uniquorn »

bluice

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1989 on: June 30, 2020, 02:50:03 PM »
Ice melting north of New Siberian Islands. EOSDIS Worldview today, June 30th

GAWLab

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1990 on: June 30, 2020, 02:55:58 PM »
Holy smokes. Thanks for the post. I've been paying attention to the obs up there via ADDS the past week or so but I didn't realize it had gotten that high in the off-observation hours. Can imagine the melt has been rapid with those kinds of temps/dews and sunshine. Have there been many low clouds at all or has it been mostly just scattered high-level decks?

Very, very few clouds.  It's been an unusually sunny week as well, it's rare to get an entire week of nearly uninterrupted sunshine.  The last three days (which have also had the highest temperatures) have been completely cloudless.

I've attached the real-time plot of data from our sun-tracking pyrheliometer, showing the past week.  The signal drops noticeably when there's even the smallest amount of cloud cover in front of the sun, so it gives you a really great idea of how clear it's been.
- Kevin
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Alert, NU

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1991 on: June 30, 2020, 03:03:50 PM »
A quick look at Beaufort ice drift  for the current melt season. The 'ice gyre' seemingly repeatedly failing to get into gear.


There is potential for a very serious consequence associated with the gyre losing momentum.

Coriolis forces associated with the prevailing anti-cyclone have been causing fresh water to accumulate within the gyre for two decades. At some point, a lot of that water is going to be released and potentially head for the North Atlantic and slow down the AMOC.


uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1992 on: June 30, 2020, 03:50:20 PM »
Just to clarify. That is ice drift for this melting season, mostly wind driven, so not necessarily representative of a possible longer term ocean gyre.(which would be off topic)
@GAWlab thanks for the data and local weather

OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1993 on: June 30, 2020, 05:47:57 PM »
That'll move some ice around...

Click to play
Large File!


For heavens sake man, can you do an animation of 850hpa winds and temps. I have never seen anything like the broad floods of above zero, up to 8C out near the pole at times, cominng in from Alaskan, Canadian, eurasian quadrants near simultaneously, clapping hands over the central basin.
No offence, but over the next six weeks surface temps are not so informative. Its the vast majority of energy coming in at 1450m that speaks. Especially to remember also that descend to sea level in high pressure system from this Altitude means about 10C is rise in air temperature.
GfS has also been models some very crazy jetstream behaviour at 250hpa, with it breaking over bering at string circle entire globe BACKWARDS FROMEAST TO WEST!
Seeing 250hpa jetstream in excellent animations you are making would be very helpfull in understand the crazy energy coming in in the Bulk air column below, which is usually kept out in the temperate zone, but this year... Seems much more NOT!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1994 on: June 30, 2020, 07:30:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa

Your wish is my command OTG. You can find another one @850hPa from two days ago in the Nullschool thread. If anyone else has a request, just let me know and I'll see what I can do.

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1995 on: June 30, 2020, 08:15:15 PM »
It looks like the final break-up in the Nares strait is a fact.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1996 on: June 30, 2020, 08:46:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1277989358612541441

Quote
#Arctic sea ice extent near Siberia remains well below any previous year in the satellite era record...


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1997 on: June 30, 2020, 08:56:58 PM »
the latest gfs is so far 'beyond belief' as far as the Arctic basin is concerned that it seems to have crashed or been pulled at 240 hours out .. I've never seen a gfs forecast get stuck before .. but then I've never seen one like this ..
     https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020063012/gfsnh-0-240.png?12 which follows ..
     https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020063012/gfsnh-0-54.png?12?12 which follows ..
     https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020063012/gfsnh-15-18.png?12

I said a couple of days ago every forecast was worse than the last . Surely this is enough ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1998 on: June 30, 2020, 09:14:16 PM »
the latest gfs is so far 'beyond belief' as far as the Arctic basin is concerned

It seems that the latest EURO forecast (Tuesday, June 30 12Z) is also showing a very strong High pressure system parked over the CAB for the next 10 days. 

As has been stated in the forum many times, any forecast beyond 5 days is highly uncertain.  But if GFS and EURO forecasts turn out to be even somewhat accurate, then the next several days will likely mean a significant hit to the ice.  (FRIV will probably have much more colorful language to characterize it that I look forward to reading.)
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #1999 on: June 30, 2020, 09:15:12 PM »
It looks like the final break-up in the Nares strait is a fact.

 what made me change my date ? Oh yes .. it's been the 30th June 3 times before of late .. impressive for such an apparently random event .

 btw Fg .. that latest forecast has the remains of Jac in the rather impressive Siberian low out at day 10 . I followed a long lived little storm over the basin before .. this one has certainly played a role this summer and much more to come it seems .
 
Unless a lot changes and soon , this year may well beat 2012 by a 'country mile'  . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)