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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2000 on: June 30, 2020, 09:40:58 PM »
@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, your response should have come in a post apart. Otherwise you're taking moderator privilege to highlight your own response, while not really moderating. I say this from the greatest respect to your labor.
Taken this to the forum decorum
The Hudson Bay thing is part of bbr's hypothesis on a new ice sheet forming in Northern Canada. It also bursts forth on the Northern hemisphere Snowfall thread from time to time. It got so bad - last year? - that Neven said - barred!!.

It is true to say that Hudson Bay has successfully mostly ignored AGW over the years,.
It is also true to say that it melts out completely without fail.
How boring can you get?

Oren is being really kind - a shot across the bows instead of into the engine room below the waterline.
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be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2001 on: June 30, 2020, 09:52:10 PM »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

JNap

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2002 on: June 30, 2020, 10:05:36 PM »
IF the GFS and EURO forecasts for a strong high pressure over the CAB hold true for the next 10 days, the solar insolation during this peak insolation period (mid-May to early August) would seem to create a significant ice melt event.

I try to learn from history and so I am curious if there have been other 10 - 12 days runs of high insolation over the last 15 years or so?  And if so, what was the specific impacts to the ice, i.e. extent or area reduction for the Central Arctic Seas?  (Thanks in advance for any reference data or thread posts that you can provide.)
Science matters.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2003 on: June 30, 2020, 10:16:24 PM »
hi JNap , for sun I don't recall any better period than last year but @ 30 days earlier .. I recall the sun shining at the pole for days on end , it was earlier and cooler . The ice between Siberia and the pole looks worse now than last year after the event .. b.c.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 10:27:32 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2004 on: June 30, 2020, 10:48:21 PM »
The latest forecast from both GFS and EC is just BRUTAL. If this high pressure dome manages to hold out for the next 10 days, this season should very likely end up among the top 5 melting seasons. In the unlikely event that the GFS run would be able to hold for the next two weeks, or more, we should prepare for an ONSLAUGHT of the sea ice.

Was it back in 2015 we had an impressive high pressure that compensated for the cold June?

Friv will most likely come up with a very colorful language soon😎

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2005 on: June 30, 2020, 11:30:04 PM »
OT: US electricity sector January - April 2020 net loss of 517.9 MW fossil fuel plants net gain 5046.6 MW renewable's. See renewable thread for more info.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2006 on: July 01, 2020, 12:39:30 AM »

Comradez

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2007 on: July 01, 2020, 01:08:55 AM »
How is northern Siberia hotter than Turkmenistan?  Crazy.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2008 on: July 01, 2020, 01:13:34 AM »
It is true according to Nullschool. Impressive!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2009 on: July 01, 2020, 01:18:44 AM »
The latest forecast from both GFS and EC is just BRUTAL. If this high pressure dome manages to hold out for the next 10 days, this season should very likely end up among the top 5 melting seasons. In the unlikely event that the GFS run would be able to hold for the next two weeks, or more, we should prepare for an ONSLAUGHT of the sea ice.

Was it back in 2015 we had an impressive high pressure that compensated for the cold June?

Friv will most likely come up with a very colorful language soon😎

I don't think the ECM is as brutel as the GFS as whilst it keeps the high pressure theme, the positioning and therefore orientation of the high is different and it does make aa difference as a result. GFS has been consistent in having the high migrating towards the Beaufort and Chukchi seas and a very warm southerly too boot whilst the ECM has it more over the CAB.

It's going to be interesting how the ice reacts to this and I would not rule out that set up we saw at the start of July 2015 where we saw that insane dipole.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2010 on: July 01, 2020, 01:24:17 AM »
How is northern Siberia hotter than Turkmenistan?  Crazy.

sun , sun and more sun , 24 hrs on .. and on and on .. meanwhile they shiver in the cold desert dawn in Turkmenistan , fresh to meet the heat of the day again .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2011 on: July 01, 2020, 04:43:01 AM »
I personally feel that if there is a total or near complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, this might introduce extreme temperature gradients to the region. On the onset of winter darkness, these may generate hurricane force winds that pile up extreme pack ice against the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Nunavut. This then would be combined with open Central Arctic causing huge lake-snow effect dumping that could re-generate new ice shelves as snowfall fuses into such pack ice formations.

This could re-instate - volatile and temporary - new "ice shelves" of quite considerable thickness. For shipping these conditions would be deadly even though the Central Arctic might remain open water deep into mid winter. Fortunately, for this season I cannot see ocean warming sufficient even if all ice were lost, the high temperature gradients and adequate moisture conditions are prerequisite for these ice shelves to form from extreme pack ice development combined to equally massive lake-snow falls.

Maurice Ewing and William Donn of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) in Palisades, New York were the last researchers advocating Lake-Snow Effect from insolation as a trigger of the Ice Ages ice sheets (since taken over by Milutin Milanković theory of the slow orbital forcings). The problem with Lake-snow from Arctic warming is that even though the effect is seen intensifying, also the land where snow falls also warms (just like Oren said aptly, that in the end it all melts in the Hudson Bay): the net result being higher spring floods in Siberia, not any ice sheet.

Post-Rio-1992 UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised the First Nations of Americas Ethnoclimatology Motion to be tabled on the floor of UN General Assembly on the Native American history on Foxe-Laurentide Ice Dome on which issue the UNFCCC update is here (some Asian nations lend support to this case history and WMO gave minor conference funding) which I am quite familiar: https://www.academia.edu/36396474/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Motion_101292_for_UNFCCCs_Talanoa_Dialogue There is no way for new ice sheet. In above, cause is geothermal lake-snow effect and the project goal is to attain funds to GRIP style ice core to retrieve subglacial carbon for AMS test.

Severe problems will only emerge once Arctic begin to be ice free mid-summer, then above effect may be at the tipping point for subsequent winter darkness - extremely unstable - ice shelving north of Canada. The present season (2020) is luckily one light year away from this awkward tipping point.

@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, your response should have come in a post apart..
The Hudson Bay thing is part of bbr's hypothesis on a new ice sheet forming in Northern Canada. It also bursts forth on the Northern hemisphere Snowfall thread from time to time. It is true to say that Hudson Bay has successfully mostly ignored AGW over the years. It is also true to say that it melts out completely without fail.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 04:56:36 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2012 on: July 01, 2020, 05:54:29 AM »
Just caught up with the forecast + ice. Haha, good lord. Good portion of Laptev going to be sitting inside 80N soon enough. If you have lat/long on NASA photo or look at Bremen, the entire 1/4 NE quadrant just gets pummeled. SSTs going up all across the Atlantic sector further north. All while winds + temps come to the Chukchi + ESS and the high pressure system.

If the next 7 days plays out like the euro and/or GFS, they're pretty similar anyway, definitely will be much worse than top 5. Well on our way to #1, probably at it.

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2013 on: July 01, 2020, 07:53:01 AM »

I try to learn from history and so I am curious if there have been other 10 - 12 days runs of high insolation over the last 15 years or so?  And if so, what was the specific impacts to the ice, i.e. extent or area reduction for the Central Arctic Seas?  (Thanks in advance for any reference data or thread posts that you can provide.)

See www.wetterzentrale.de , go to archiv, you can look it up there

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2014 on: July 01, 2020, 08:24:05 AM »
VAK, while I appreciate your posts, you must remain on-topic in this thread. This discussion/speculation of ice shelves and lake snow effect belongs elsewhere. I will have to take more drastic measures if this continues.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2015 on: July 01, 2020, 08:51:46 AM »
June 26-30.

2019.

June 1-30 (fast).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2016 on: July 01, 2020, 09:15:42 AM »
Big drop in JAXA extent today. I'm always wrong about these things, but it's difficult to imagine 2020 not having opened up a decent lead over 2016, 2019 and 2012 by the end of next week given the forecast.

Probably not because winds are not ideal for rapid compaction.  Melt has definitely gobe nuts especially in the CAA and Southern CAB.

Area might make a run for 1st though.

We'll see.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2017 on: July 01, 2020, 09:34:14 AM »
it's actually bad for the ice I think, if extent stays high in this weather.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2018 on: July 01, 2020, 09:44:31 AM »


That insane heat has punched into the central arctic/Atlantic side.  This can obviously  confirmed by the models.   However modis also shows this. 

Today a image shows the ice in the far Northern Laptev went dark blue.  Super wet instantly with that incredibly moist low level jet pushes through.

The huge open water area will likely warm by 3-6C in just 2 days.

CLICK TO ANIMATE
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bluice

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2019 on: July 01, 2020, 11:32:45 AM »
Laptev is biting further north.

Right now there is 25 kt S/SSE wind on the Laptev Sea. In addition to waves and compaction it brings warm air from the Siberian blowtorch.

Wind will start turning east tomorrow thus bringing cooler air from the ocean. Wave action will continue though.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2020 on: July 01, 2020, 11:51:47 AM »
Laptev is biting further north.

Right now there is 25 kt S/SSE wind on the Laptev Sea. In addition to waves and compaction it brings warm air from the Siberian blowtorch.

Wind will start turning east tomorrow thus bringing cooler air from the ocean. Wave action will continue though.

To expound upon the above: 8 DEG C SITTING IN THE LAPTEV.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2021 on: July 01, 2020, 12:16:18 PM »
8 DEG C SITTING IN THE LAPTEV.

2 day loop, Lena delta in lower left, requires a click.  Shortwave infrared. Contrasted boosted for detail.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2022 on: July 01, 2020, 12:31:49 PM »
Do i see this right that this blob of warm water is river water?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2023 on: July 01, 2020, 12:34:59 PM »
Thanks JayW,
Lena delta beautiful from space as ever.
Extreme melt ponding visible on Worldview over great extents. I remember I would have been exited and full of worries a couple of years ago.
Thanks all for keeping a finger on the pulse...

PS the river water always on top, I remember it washes over the landfast ice near Mackenzie delta too..

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2024 on: July 01, 2020, 12:38:14 PM »
Blumenkraft, looking with more attention, yes, a pulse of water full of silt and sediment is visible from all mouths on the delta-rim. Astonishing.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2025 on: July 01, 2020, 01:59:10 PM »
850 hPa at this moment. Warm air with 20-30 kg/m2 of water vapor enters the CAB.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2026 on: July 01, 2020, 03:07:35 PM »
Blumenkraft, looking with more attention, yes, a pulse of water full of silt and sediment is visible from all mouths on the delta-rim. Astonishing.

Thanks, Werther, for the confirmation. Astonishing indeed!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2027 on: July 01, 2020, 03:32:43 PM »
Looks rough out there.

There are surface winds at 40+ km/h over open water in Laptev and Barents.  The surface temp is above freezing pretty much everywhere from about .5 to 2 °C and the relative humidity is 90+ % almost everywhere except the CAB where it is still 80+ %.

It's not too terribly different from other years but the heat and humidity seem to be more everywhere and all the time than most other years.

(Nullschool image is from now and worldview image is from yesterday)


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2028 on: July 01, 2020, 04:02:14 PM »
Do i see this right that this blob of warm water is river water?

It probably confirms what we discussed a few weeks ago: the heat in Siberia warms up the rivers, which bring plenty of very warm water into the Arctic Sea. So an (over)heated Siberia is probably very important for Arctic melt even if that heat does not directly reach the sea.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2029 on: July 01, 2020, 04:08:31 PM »
How is northern Siberia hotter than Turkmenistan?  Crazy.


It's called weather and as i stated earler, Sibiria is well known to be a hot place in summer, albeit not that far north like this year but nevertheless.


Sibiria being cold yearlong is kind of a general misconception/ignorance about that place/region on earth.


I'm explicitely NOT speaking specifically about north of 65° Sibiria is larger than many large countries, hence weather and specific location make a difference of course.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 04:15:56 PM by igs »
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igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2030 on: July 01, 2020, 04:18:06 PM »
Do i see this right that this blob of warm water is river water?

It probably confirms what we discussed a few weeks ago: the heat in Siberia warms up the rivers, which bring plenty of very warm water into the Arctic Sea. So an (over)heated Siberia is probably very important for Arctic melt even if that heat does not directly reach the sea.


True while this time it DOES rich the sea directly in several locations repeatedly.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2031 on: July 01, 2020, 06:28:50 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1278339312895967232

Quote
Average June #Arctic sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest on record (after 2016 and 2019)
This was 1,180,000  km² below the 1981-2010 average. June ice extent is decreasing at 4.06% per decade (satellite-era). Data from @NSIDC


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2032 on: July 01, 2020, 07:13:03 PM »
Quote
It's called weather and as i stated earler, Sibiria is well known to be a hot place in summer, albeit not that far north like this year but nevertheless.

I understand the point you're trying to make IGS, but I think you're taking these comments on the recent anomalies out of context. Some parts of Siberia do get, on average, what most temperate latitude folks would consider warm, with occasional spikes into upper 20s C, with records being in the 30s. But this is in reference to 20-25C anomalies right on the arctic circle, which has been making headlines because its magnitude is unprecedented.

Your point that Siberia is a large place with a variety of climates further requires us not to diminish this event because other parts of Siberia are more temperate in the summer. This is especially relevant to this thread as it will have a large impact on melt as prevailing winds carry the super-heated air north.

Please pardon my reposting, but I wanted to compare to the image with averages for this region, I think the magnitude is pretty apparent.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2033 on: July 01, 2020, 07:16:39 PM »
Browsing through Worldview I noticed the situation in Dmitry Laptev Strait. What was still fast ice 5 days ago is now decimated at an alarming rate. I looked at 2005-2019 on this date , and only 2016 had the ice broken and melting along the whole strait, and no year at all had an open passage through the strait.
Click to animate. 28th and 29th removed due to clouds. A lot of ice disappears on the last day - a testament to the crazy temperatures.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 07:22:41 PM by oren »

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2034 on: July 01, 2020, 07:46:08 PM »
Quote
It's called weather and as i stated earler, Sibiria is well known to be a hot place in summer, albeit not that far north like this year but nevertheless.
I understand the point you're trying to make IGS, but I think you're taking these comments on the recent anomalies out of context. Some parts of Siberia do get, on average, what most temperate latitude folks would consider warm, with occasional spikes into upper 20s C, with records being in the 30s. But this is in reference to 20-25C anomalies right on the arctic circle, which has been making headlines because its magnitude is unprecedented.

Your point that Siberia is a large place with a variety of climates further requires us not to diminish this event because other parts of Siberia are more temperate in the summer. This is especially relevant to this thread as it will have a large impact on melt as prevailing winds carry the super-heated air north.

Please pardon my reposting, but I wanted to compare to the image with averages for this region, I think the magnitude is pretty apparent.

You talk about Sibirian Arctic while you wrote "Sibiria" instead of "Sibirian Arctic"

Spikes in Sibiria are well above 40C not 25-30 and Average is way above 25 (Sibiria as a whole and especially the part that normally geographically is referred to which is not the relatively small part above 65 or 70° North.)

So except that little but significant difference between "Sibiria" as whole and "Sibirian Arctic" I'm with you here.

Generally speaking, if someone talks about "Sibirian Arctic" IMO there is no obstacle to say/write so.

As someone who has been in Sibiria for 16 consecutive summers with my family, the term Sibiria does not refer to the far northern part normally.

<This is the melting season thread. When someone talks about Siberia here they should mean Arctic Siberia unless noted otherwise. In any case, please don't drag the thread off-topic. O>
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 10:10:51 PM by oren »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2035 on: July 01, 2020, 08:33:49 PM »
The July 1st  12z forecasts are out for both GFS and EURO.  Both continue to be relatively aligned and show a strong high pressure system continuing to be parked over the CAB for several more days.  (With the EURO showing an even greater high pressure.)

This could produce a run of 130-150+ km2 daily JAXA extent losses for the period and put 2020 in first place for lowest extent for the date.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2036 on: July 01, 2020, 09:06:36 PM »
Yes, both GFS and EC are in line with each other. And it is a terrible forecast for ice retention. The question is not if it is going to be bad but HOW bad the situation will be for the ice. Two weeks with relentless sunshine and melt ponding over the CAB will take it's toll. The volume numbers should drop like a big stone.

I don't think we want to ser what's going to happen if that high pressure lingers another 1-2 weeks when we enter August.. :o

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2037 on: July 01, 2020, 09:32:40 PM »
There are of course slight differences between the runs mind, ECM is going for a massive strong block and it is one of the most impressive high pressure runs I have ever seen, possibly beating July 2011 set ups if of course it comes off anything as close as that. Other model runs do somewhat go for troughing around the high and forecasts in the short to medium term do suggest the Beaufort sea might be cloudier at times.

I'm so interested too see how the ice reacts to the high though, I do worry about the Laptev sea especially as winds will no doubt continue to compact the ice and keep nibbling away at it towards higher latitudes.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2038 on: July 01, 2020, 11:48:47 PM »
Some interesting temperatures today from whoi itp114 in the beaufort.
Quote
SBE-37 microcats fixed at 5m and 6 m depths

snapshot of rough location, https://go.nasa.gov/2VCeBWe
light contrast

itp113, 117 and 118 also showing small rises at 5m or 6m depth.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 12:06:10 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2039 on: July 02, 2020, 12:00:50 AM »
I've never seen a pattern as zonal as the ECM forecast.  It's almost like the northern hemisphere gets stratified into a textbook pattern of three atmospheric cells:  easterly winds in the tropics, a huge circumglobal subtropical high, mid-latitude westerlies, an unbroken string of low pressure systems in the high-mid-latitudes, and then westerlies again around the huge polar high. 

I don't know whether such a zonal pattern is good for the ice, but I just thought it was interesting. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2040 on: July 02, 2020, 01:11:27 AM »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2041 on: July 02, 2020, 01:38:55 AM »
I know there's a separate thread for this, but I think it's worth nothing here how serious the melting season for Greenland is this year.



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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2042 on: July 02, 2020, 02:08:20 AM »
At least temperature-wise, it looks like the CAB is slated to get a bit cooler once the big high pressure sets up.  The forecast is for the flow to be almost universally from the CAB outwards onto the landmasses.  This big high will certainly be a test of whether warm air advection from surrounding landmasses or direct insolation near the summer solstice is more effective at melting ice. 

Edit:  Interestingly, if you look at the current conditions on nullschool at the 850 mb level, 84.61 N, 122.28 E (roughly right in between Severnaya Zemlya and the North Pole) currently has 13.7 C with 55 km/h winds.  That's gotta be having an effect, no?  (The surface is 1.2 C with 31 km/h winds).  Interestingly, the 700 mb level there is still 2.0 C.  That's quite a pool of warm air aloft!)
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 02:16:52 AM by Comradez »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2043 on: July 02, 2020, 02:19:04 AM »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2044 on: July 02, 2020, 02:30:37 AM »
At least temperature-wise, it looks like the CAB is slated to get a bit cooler once the big high pressure sets up.  The forecast is for the flow to be almost universally from the CAB outwards onto the landmasses.  This big high will certainly be a test of whether warm air advection from surrounding landmasses or direct insolation near the summer solstice is more effective at melting ice. 

Edit:  Interestingly, if you look at the current conditions on nullschool at the 850 mb level, 84.61 N, 122.28 E (roughly right in between Severnaya Zemlya and the North Pole) currently has 13.7 C with 55 km/h winds.  That's gotta be having an effect, no?  (The surface is 1.2 C with 31 km/h winds).  Interestingly, the 700 mb level there is still 2.0 C.  That's quite a pool of warm air aloft!)

Insolation is by far more effective.

24/7 direct INSOLATION between June 1st and July 20th  not only hits the surface hard with large melt lakes and ponds it warms the sub-surface.

The standard rule of thumb for a 24 hour period is if ALBEDO is roughly 50 percent then for every 0.5C the temp above the ice it below is above the freezing mark 1CM of ice melts.

So that 1.2C over a 24 hour period would melt 5CM+ in a day.

Strong heat from land doesn't cause bottom melt like direct INSOLATION does.

That's why years like 2012, 2011, 2007 saw the CAB and CAA get ravaged.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2045 on: July 02, 2020, 04:01:43 AM »
Maybe there is circulation pattern in the first 10 days of July that causes more melting of the ice in the central Arctic, but I don't know what it is. A subsidence high over the pole with high temperatures aloft, clear skies and an inversion only meters above the ice surface traps nearly all the incoming solar radiation while radiating little heat back out to space. Almost all of the energy goes into melting the ice and warming the ocean under the ice. The cold, thin near-surface layer above the ice is a nearly perfect solar heat sink.

We are going to see how accurate the PIOMAS calculations of sea ice thickness in the CAB were. If PIOMAS got it high - thicker than actual - we could be in for some big surprises.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2046 on: July 02, 2020, 05:37:09 AM »
And to accompany Fish's post, here is Worldview from July 1.
Virtually the entire Arctic ice is free from cloud.  The whiter mass of the Greenland ice sheet contrasts so clearly with the much grayer sea ice.
I have looked at a large number of Worldview images, and I do not recall one from the overall Arctic that looks quite like this.
Not a pattern of insolation that one wants to see continue...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2047 on: July 02, 2020, 06:08:35 AM »
Holy smokes. Thanks for the post. I've been paying attention to the obs up there via ADDS the past week or so but I didn't realize it had gotten that high in the off-observation hours. Can imagine the melt has been rapid with those kinds of temps/dews and sunshine. Have there been many low clouds at all or has it been mostly just scattered high-level decks?

Very, very few clouds.  It's been an unusually sunny week as well, it's rare to get an entire week of nearly uninterrupted sunshine.  The last three days (which have also had the highest temperatures) have been completely cloudless.

I've attached the real-time plot of data from our sun-tracking pyrheliometer, showing the past week.  The signal drops noticeably when there's even the smallest amount of cloud cover in front of the sun, so it gives you a really great idea of how clear it's been.

That's pretty incredible. A testament to the deep, crushing subsidence under that ridge -- strong enough to disperse even the lowest-level stratus.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2048 on: July 02, 2020, 06:11:44 AM »
At least temperature-wise, it looks like the CAB is slated to get a bit cooler once the big high pressure sets up.  The forecast is for the flow to be almost universally from the CAB outwards onto the landmasses.  This big high will certainly be a test of whether warm air advection from surrounding landmasses or direct insolation near the summer solstice is more effective at melting ice. 

Edit:  Interestingly, if you look at the current conditions on nullschool at the 850 mb level, 84.61 N, 122.28 E (roughly right in between Severnaya Zemlya and the North Pole) currently has 13.7 C with 55 km/h winds.  That's gotta be having an effect, no?  (The surface is 1.2 C with 31 km/h winds).  Interestingly, the 700 mb level there is still 2.0 C.  That's quite a pool of warm air aloft!)

Insolation is by far more effective.

24/7 direct INSOLATION between June 1st and July 20th  not only hits the surface hard with large melt lakes and ponds it warms the sub-surface.

The standard rule of thumb for a 24 hour period is if ALBEDO is roughly 50 percent then for every 0.5C the temp above the ice it below is above the freezing mark 1CM of ice melts.

So that 1.2C over a 24 hour period would melt 5CM+ in a day.

Strong heat from land doesn't cause bottom melt like direct INSOLATION does.

That's why years like 2012, 2011, 2007 saw the CAB and CAA get ravaged.

Getting to diamond-studded bone-crusher™ levels.

The last few EPS and GEFS runs have been ruthless for the next 7-10 days, which when combined with the widespread ponding already ongoing, would put a huge dent in thickness across virtually the entire basin.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2049 on: July 02, 2020, 07:06:51 AM »
The 12Z euro is incredibly beautiful.  Just amazing, perfect, diabolical, ruthless, beast, bout it bout it!

JUST STRAIGHT ANNULAR PERFECTION!!!!!

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