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Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 608154 times)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2050 on: July 02, 2020, 07:44:51 AM »
The 12Z euro is incredibly beautiful.  Just amazing, perfect, diabolical, ruthless, beast, bout it bout it!

JUST STRAIGHT ANNULAR PERFECTION!!!!!

Click to ANIMATE
Dear God...

Yeah pretty remarkable.  The 00z gfs is exactly the same except slightly weaker.

With that annular GIGANTIC ridge the ARCTIC basin will CLEAR out like it did in the middle of May. 

Except now albedo is wrecked everywhere and at least 75% of the BASIN covered in melt ponds/lakes and we are only 10 DAYS passed PEAK INSOLATION. 



also it might only last ONE DAY....JAXA --- AMSR2 Sea ice extent is now the LOWEST on record for this date.

Given the flow around the annular  GIANT RIDGE.  extent losses will slow some with less compaction. 

But the entire basin is priming to see major in situ melting...

Or essentially a continuation of it.

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thejazzmarauder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2051 on: July 02, 2020, 07:56:28 AM »
Is there a recent historical precedent for such a significant part of the inner basin getting 1030s+ for 7+ days this close to peak?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2052 on: July 02, 2020, 11:22:17 AM »
Another buoy report, this time from the cryosphere innovation SIMB in the Beaufort.
Ocean temperature just beneath the ice is rising. Snow is almost gone. No real sign of melt yet.
click twice for full resolution

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2053 on: July 02, 2020, 02:56:42 PM »
Big daily drop in area today. Won't immediately show up on gerontocrat's 5-day average charts, but if this keeps up the area will be record daily low very soon.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2054 on: July 02, 2020, 02:58:19 PM »
JAXA already has the record in, Grixm.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2055 on: July 02, 2020, 03:08:22 PM »
Slater's model forecast is starting to drop a lot too. There's a noticeable large orange/red blob right at the pole. I'm not sure it'll really melt out, but with this amazing high pressure dome in the forecast during peak insolation, who knows.

I also noticed that a significant proportion of the "less likely to melt out" area in blue is over by Svalbard, which is ice that will either get blown out down the Fram, or will melt out eventually later. Making this forecast pretty rough for ice retention.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2056 on: July 02, 2020, 03:35:45 PM »
Slater's model has picked up the current preconditioning  and thinks it is favourable for strong melting way into July.

It predicts 7.34 m km² for July 13th, currently nosediving ...
We may see something interesting next days.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2057 on: July 02, 2020, 04:17:42 PM »
Comparison with the norms of 1981-2010.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2058 on: July 02, 2020, 04:19:54 PM »
The Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea according to the norms now should still be covered with ice by almost 100% :)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2059 on: July 02, 2020, 04:25:47 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1278691513795375104

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Unsurprisingly, last month's #Arctic sea ice extent along the Siberian coast was the lowest June on record. The previous record low was 2012.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2060 on: July 02, 2020, 05:20:58 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1278436161602584577

Quote
Overall June average temperatures around Alaska were not too far from normal in most areas. The major exception was in western Alaska, where areas were decidedly on the warm side. Some cool spots southeast mainland and the Panhandle. #akwx



Quote
June and late spring #akclimatehighlights include western Alaska with above normal temperatures & unusually large tundra wildfires. Panhandle & eastern Interior quite rainy but Aleutians dry. Thunderstorms were frequent during June but rains limited wildfires. #akwx
@AlaskaWx



https://twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1278420735485194240

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An interesting striped pattern for the June temperature anomalies in #Canada, with a warmer-than-normal South and Arctic, and cooler in between. Warmest June since 2006 for St. John's! #wxtwitter #climate


Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2061 on: July 02, 2020, 05:38:01 PM »
Maybe someone can answer this for me. With 2020 just about going lowest on record today, how come the NSIDC extent line has 2020 8th lowest? According to the NSIDC, 2020 is above 2010, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 19 and whilst for some years the gap is small, in other years its quite a large difference especially with 2010 whilst JAXA has it effectively level, NSIDC has 2010 way ahead.

I know the NSIDC uses a 5 day average and the resolution is lower but we have never been above 2012 on JAXA yet the NSIDC has 2020 above 2012 for a good while now. I don't think I have seen JAXA and NSIDC looking so different before and are usually on the same page.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2062 on: July 02, 2020, 06:07:56 PM »
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 10:24:40 PM by grixm »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2063 on: July 02, 2020, 06:12:43 PM »
Maybe someone can answer this for me. With 2020 just about going lowest on record today, how come the NSIDC extent line has 2020 8th lowest? According to the NSIDC, 2020 is above 2010, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 19 and whilst for some years the gap is small, in other years its quite a large difference especially with 2010 whilst JAXA has it effectively level, NSIDC has 2010 way ahead.

I know the NSIDC uses a 5 day average and the resolution is lower but we have never been above 2012 on JAXA yet the NSIDC has 2020 above 2012 for a good while now. I don't think I have seen JAXA and NSIDC looking so different before and are usually on the same page.

Well, one reason could be that NSIDC is not as good as JAXA to measure along the coast and gulfs. This is especially relevant now because many river outlets in Russia melted out record early, but the NSIDC extent does not pick up on this. You can see below one such example circled in red. This area is actually completely devoid of ice. But in some other years, like 2017, 2014, 2019, and 2011 out of the years you mentioned, there were still ice here. Yet NSIDC would report the same extent as now, unlike JAXA.

GAWLab

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2064 on: July 02, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »
In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.

- Kevin
Operator, Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmosphere Watch Observatory
Alert, NU

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2065 on: July 02, 2020, 06:37:14 PM »
IMO the day-over-day change in Laptev viewable in EOSDIS indicates the impending situation will result in 2020 taking a mile-long lead.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2792087.8335392624,-649921.0386836416,2344296.1664607376,1928971.761316358&p=arctic&l=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years (with the caveat that we DO have clouds of black carbon now drifting over the Arctic thanks to the Siberian wildfires, and the plume will be sustained for the next few days!).

The year over year comparison is shocking, lol. Laptev just went poof!
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 07:20:39 PM by bbr2315 »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2066 on: July 02, 2020, 06:51:58 PM »
Thanks for sharing!

So this camera is facing west, Kevin?

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2067 on: July 02, 2020, 07:00:18 PM »
GAWLab, thanks for the pure gold. Very interesting!
big time oops

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2068 on: July 02, 2020, 07:12:34 PM »
IMO the day-over-day change in Laptev viewable in EOSDIS indicates the impending situation will result in 2020 taking a mile-long lead.

The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

The year over year comparison is shocking, lol. Laptev just went poof!

I completely agree. Now I’ve looked at the state of the Laptev Sea on July 1, 2012, and it is simply incomparable with the current situation.

This year is most likely to break the 2012 record among any of the last 8 years.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2069 on: July 02, 2020, 07:26:10 PM »
The wild thing with all of the open water around Siberia is that from this point on, it will just continue to more or less gain heat and just keep chipping away. I think if a strong storm forms around that area the destruction of ice will be immense. Either way, with the forecast in place I'm expecting to see some dramatic melt over the next 2 months. I will also be interested in seeing how much the Atlantic creeps in once the weather is a little more conducive toward ice melt.

pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2070 on: July 02, 2020, 07:42:31 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1278718717216452608

Quote
Chukchi Sea average daily #seaice extent in June from @NSIDC  data was the highest since 2017, but still well below pre-2000  levels. #akwx


Jontenoy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2071 on: July 02, 2020, 08:01:43 PM »
The picture of the complete cloudless arctic is quite dramatic. However, as the ice is some months from minimum, the albedo is higher than it would be mid September. OTOH, there would be less insolation in September . Perhaps there is a 'maximum melt date' for given insolation. Has anybody
done a study on this ?

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2072 on: July 02, 2020, 08:45:53 PM »
Average wind for 3-5-10 days.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2073 on: July 02, 2020, 09:54:49 PM »
Wonderful, GAWLab.  Apart from the incredibly rapid melt I was transfixed by the whirling shadows of the railings and minitowers as a 24 hour Sun 'wheeled around' the station.  It is like watching a clock, and I guess that is just what it is.  I felt the far North, where I have never been, on another level.  Thanks.

In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.

« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 10:00:24 PM by Pagophilus »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2074 on: July 02, 2020, 10:09:11 PM »
In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.


Awesome video GAWLab, great to see stuff from the field!  Hope you have enough fresh food up there bro.
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KenB

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2075 on: July 02, 2020, 10:39:44 PM »
GAWLab, thanks for the pure gold. Very interesting!

Ditto.  Loved watching the shadow of the tower spinning around. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2076 on: July 02, 2020, 11:21:39 PM »
The Arctic is definitely not cloudless.  It's been 50/50 for a while now with the clouds and fog rotating around.

What's most important is that even tho there has been quite a bit of clouds over the Pacific side.

Modis shows the ice surface from the Western CAB, Beaufort, Chuckchi, and ESS is very wet and low ALBEDO.

The Atlantic side has been inundated with fog.  This has really gone beserk with that warm front that rolled through the pole/Atlantic side.

Likely some nasty melt associated with that.

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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2077 on: July 02, 2020, 11:46:14 PM »
Maybe someone can answer this for me. With 2020 just about going lowest on record today, how come the NSIDC extent line has 2020 8th lowest? According to the NSIDC, 2020 is above 2010, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 19 and whilst for some years the gap is small, in other years its quite a large difference especially with 2010 whilst JAXA has it effectively level, NSIDC has 2010 way ahead.

I know the NSIDC uses a 5 day average and the resolution is lower but we have never been above 2012 on JAXA yet the NSIDC has 2020 above 2012 for a good while now. I don't think I have seen JAXA and NSIDC looking so different before and are usually on the same page.

Well, one reason could be that NSIDC is not as good as JAXA to measure along the coast and gulfs. This is especially relevant now because many river outlets in Russia melted out record early, but the NSIDC extent does not pick up on this. You can see below one such example circled in red. This area is actually completely devoid of ice. But in some other years, like 2017, 2014, 2019, and 2011 out of the years you mentioned, there were still ice here. Yet NSIDC would report the same extent as now, unlike JAXA.

The NSIDC has commented in the past about false ice appearing on coastlines and they claim it makes very minimal difference to the extent graphs and also, every year has this problem.

Tonight's ECM is not as dramatic as last nights ECM as it reintroduces weak troughing around the edge of the high therefore increasing cloud cover. We can see signs of trouble though at 120 and 144 hour charts as a strong ridge threatens to link up with the Arctic high but does not manage it on this run. I think the ice will be even more trouble if this high heads towards the Beaufort sea but at the moment, it stays more over the CAB.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2078 on: July 03, 2020, 01:01:59 AM »
Maybe someone can answer this for me. With 2020 just about going lowest on record today, how come the NSIDC extent line has 2020 8th lowest? According to the NSIDC, 2020 is above 2010, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 19 and whilst for some years the gap is small, in other years its quite a large difference especially with 2010 whilst JAXA has it effectively level, NSIDC has 2010 way ahead.

I know the NSIDC uses a 5 day average and the resolution is lower but we have never been above 2012 on JAXA yet the NSIDC has 2020 above 2012 for a good while now. I don't think I have seen JAXA and NSIDC looking so different before and are usually on the same page.

Well, one reason could be that NSIDC is not as good as JAXA to measure along the coast and gulfs. This is especially relevant now because many river outlets in Russia melted out record early, but the NSIDC extent does not pick up on this. You can see below one such example circled in red. This area is actually completely devoid of ice. But in some other years, like 2017, 2014, 2019, and 2011 out of the years you mentioned, there were still ice here. Yet NSIDC would report the same extent as now, unlike JAXA.

The NSIDC has commented in the past about false ice appearing on coastlines and they claim it makes very minimal difference to the extent graphs and also, every year has this problem.


It is a good question Paul.

I have started a new thread with links to an article which delves into the differences. Thread here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3158.0.html

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2079 on: July 03, 2020, 02:05:42 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa

There's gonna be a lot of compaction going on with this impressive high. I'm curious to see how much the entire ice pack will rotate. That'll scrape off a lot of ice that'll disappear into the Fram and probably move a lot of that thick ice along the CAA and Greenland coast towards the beaufort and away from the coast.

Oh yeah... It'll also be hot and sunny with a very thin cloud cover.  :-\

Large GiFS!
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2080 on: July 03, 2020, 02:52:06 AM »
I forgot one.
Is this still called a "Jet Stream"? Or do we start calling it the "Bubble Jet"?

Needs a click.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2081 on: July 03, 2020, 03:16:24 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa

There's gonna be a lot of compaction going on with this impressive high. I'm curious to see how much the entire ice pack will rotate. That'll scrape off a lot of ice that'll disappear into the Fram and probably move a lot of that thick ice along the CAA and Greenland coast towards the beaufort and away from the coast.

Oh yeah... It'll also be hot and sunny with a very thin cloud cover.  :-\

Large GiFS!

Hot and sunny? I don't like misleading posts to be honest. If we are honest, looking at temperatures I have seen warmer set ups on a local level than this set up.

Reason being, most runs largely has winds circulating within the Arctic basin and not much from the landmasses and your graphs show that. Also most runs go for lower thicknesses within the flow at times and the Beaufort, ESS and the Barants sea does look cloudier st times. Of course the excitement and worry from some members will be just how much damage the sun will do to the ice, time will tell on that and of course you got the warm Laptev sea which may damage and melt some of the ice also.

Because of the situation in the Laptev sea then I think an extent of below 4 million is again looking likely and that is significant enough for me. I don't think you caan rely on the Beaufort and Chukchi seas to keep on holding out and some melt will occur here between now and September.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2082 on: July 03, 2020, 03:34:17 AM »
I wasn't trying to mislead. That was an attempt to a little humor...  :-\
The GiFS do the talking...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2083 on: July 03, 2020, 03:36:04 AM »

Hot and sunny? I don't like misleading posts to be honest. If we are honest, looking at temperatures I have seen warmer set ups on a local level than this set up.


When we talk about temperatures it is important to talk about location.  No matter how sunny it is, it will not get “hot” over the ice until the ice has melted.  That is because of the enormous amount of energy it takes to overcome the latent heat of fusion.

However, once that ice melts, temperatures will rise fast. 

All of the top arctic scientists active on Twitter are currently talking about this high pressure set up. It looks to be a bad one for the ice. Freegrass might have been a little excited when he made his post because of what he saw in the weather model he follows. However, there was nothing misleading in what he said.  If anything, the only part he got wrong is that he was not specific in his communication about where the heat will be located.

There is no need to claim someone is being “misleading” when they are giving their best interpretation of the model they follow.  Also, he is most likely 100% correct depending on how thick that ice is and how fast it melts under this system.

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2084 on: July 03, 2020, 03:50:18 AM »
Many of you know Judah Cohen. He is a Ph.D meteorologist who studies polar air circulation and predicts long term forecasts. 

Long term forecasts over the arctic are always difficult, but he is considered one of the best.

Below, is his forecast for July.  If it holds up, it will not be good for the ice.

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2085 on: July 03, 2020, 04:02:47 AM »
This is what Zack had to say, and I know most people on here trust him.

I’m done now, but please don’t pick on the new people.  If you want to fight with the trolls and the old timers who have questionable theories I’m good with that.  But, let the new people have a chance to feel involved and to learn.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 04:44:08 AM by oren »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2086 on: July 03, 2020, 04:20:24 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa

There's gonna be a lot of compaction going on with this impressive high. I'm curious to see how much the entire ice pack will rotate. That'll scrape off a lot of ice that'll disappear into the Fram and probably move a lot of that thick ice along the CAA and Greenland coast towards the beaufort and away from the coast.

Oh yeah... It'll also be hot and sunny with a very thin cloud cover.  :-\

Large GiFS!

Hot and sunny? I don't like misleading posts to be honest. If we are honest, looking at temperatures I have seen warmer set ups on a local level than this set up.

Reason being, most runs largely has winds circulating within the Arctic basin and not much from the landmasses and your graphs show that. Also most runs go for lower thicknesses within the flow at times and the Beaufort, ESS and the Barants sea does look cloudier st times. Of course the excitement and worry from some members will be just how much damage the sun will do to the ice, time will tell on that and of course you got the warm Laptev sea which may damage and melt some of the ice also.

Because of the situation in the Laptev sea then I think an extent of below 4 million is again looking likely and that is significant enough for me. I don't think you caan rely on the Beaufort and Chukchi seas to keep on holding out and some melt will occur here between now and September.

The Chuchki and Beaufort are both melting right now and have been most of June.
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2087 on: July 03, 2020, 05:42:51 AM »
BOE may happen at the end of the melting season if central arctic will be likely heated for such a long time.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2088 on: July 03, 2020, 05:53:25 AM »
Hudson Bay doesn't look good...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2089 on: July 03, 2020, 06:37:16 AM »
BOE may happen at the end of the melting season if central arctic will be likely heated for such a long time.

Not happening.

The pole might be ice free.

It's realistic that the remaining ice will be confined to the Southern 2/3rd of the CAB, Greenland sea, Northern CAA, and Beaufort. 

But we are not going to see anything close to a melt out.

Getting under 3.0 million km2 isnt very likely extent wise.

What is at stake is a new volume record low.  Expecially on cryosat/smos since piomas isn't likely to properly model the destruction of the ice that it says is 3-4 meters thick. 

That ice has been getting hit quite hard and it's a only July 3rd.

It's very possible that parts of the CAB end up with reality low concentration towards the end of August.



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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2090 on: July 03, 2020, 06:41:14 AM »
The picture of the complete cloudless arctic is quite dramatic. However, as the ice is some months from minimum, the albedo is higher than it would be mid September. OTOH, there would be less insolation in September . Perhaps there is a 'maximum melt date' for given insolation. Has anybody
done a study on this ?
I have no idea, but I think it is a good question, and no-one has responded yet.  Very probably someone already has the answer, and I bow humbly to them.  But I like thinking aloud, so here goes.  From my limited perspective, I think if you assumed clear skies, and went for calculating average watts absorbed per square meter by the ice, and divided that by average albedo values, it could be done. 

To fluff this out a bit: We already know the insolation received per square meter of a theoretical flat surface in clear conditions at a given latitude at a given time. That is largely a geometric question.  If we chopped the year up into, say, numbered weeks, and were able to access good data on the average albedo of the arctic ice during each week in the melting season, then we could take the average watts per square meter received for that week at that location and divide it by the average ice albedo value for that week.  I think the units would still be W/m^2 actually (but from an absorption and not an insolation perspective), since albedo is expressed as a pure ratio with no units.  I seem to recall there is a measure of albedo for the Arctic ice out there somewhere. (Choose your unit of time, multiply by that and you have energy absorbed if you want that too.) 

So then we would know which week or weeks were likely to result in the absorption of the most solar radiation by a given area of ice at a given latitude, which I think is what you are asking for.  One would have to take albedo data from a considerable number of years to accomplish this, and so the results would be historically weighted towards the past, but if there were a trend you could factor that in.  And if it were this simple, someone has already done it.  Or perhaps there isn't enough meaningful data on albedo to do this or perhaps I have missed something above.  So... yeah... maybe I should just shuffle off stage now... 
« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 06:47:51 AM by Pagophilus »
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sedziobs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2091 on: July 03, 2020, 07:32:10 AM »
The picture of the complete cloudless arctic is quite dramatic. However, as the ice is some months from minimum, the albedo is higher than it would be mid September. OTOH, there would be less insolation in September . Perhaps there is a 'maximum melt date' for given insolation. Has anybody
done a study on this ?
...And if it were this simple, someone has already done it....

I believe Tealight's Albedo Warming Potential is what you are looking for. In an ice free arctic the peak is at the solstice, but with melting ice cover the peak occurs in mid July.


Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2092 on: July 03, 2020, 07:57:16 AM »
God bless you, kind sedziobs!   This is a useful new perspective for a neophyte like me and makes me more fully appreciate how critical the next two to three weeks are going to be. Also notable is the relatively close tracking of 2020 with 2012, although several recent years may have tracked in a similar manner.


Has anybody done a study on this ?
...And if it were this simple, someone has already done it....
I believe Tealight's Albedo Warming Potential is what you are looking for. In an ice free arctic the peak is at the solstice, but with melting ice cover the peak occurs in mid July.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2093 on: July 03, 2020, 08:21:03 AM »
June 28 - July 2.

2019.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2094 on: July 03, 2020, 09:14:27 AM »
To the north of the Laptev Sea, an area of low ice concentration grows.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2095 on: July 03, 2020, 10:01:14 AM »
To the north of the Laptev Sea, an area of low ice concentration grows.
It's visible in Worldview, too.

A GAC might do wonders on this sector...  ;)

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2096 on: July 03, 2020, 10:04:36 AM »
Medium extent drop but huge area drop. Presumably this means the ice has slightly dispersed ?
The warming potential depends more on albedo * area  which depends on area rather than extent
Have I missed something here ?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2097 on: July 03, 2020, 11:02:23 AM »
It could also mean the ice surface has become very wet, registering as a drop of area but not reaching thresholds for extent to drop.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2098 on: July 03, 2020, 12:24:11 PM »
Many of you know Judah Cohen. He is a Ph.D meteorologist who studies polar air circulation and predicts long term forecasts. 

Long term forecasts over the arctic are always difficult, but he is considered one of the best.

Below, is his forecast for July.  If it holds up, it will not be good for the ice.

That is the problem though, it's the old high pressure = sunshine yet its not always that simple. There will be sunny areas for sure, I'm not quite sure how strong the sunshine is at higher latitudes compared to lower latitudes but one would imagine it be less strong? Plus whenever you look at the charts and you see light yellows and greens, it does indicate slightly cooler upper air and therefore a shallow vortex which means more cloud cover within the flow hence I suspect there be more cloud cover at times in the Beaufort, ESS and the Atlantic front.

The other difference from what I see is this high at least in the short to medium term is not going to pull too much hot air in from lower latitudes, the winds largely circulating within the basin itself.

I be even more concerned if this was a ridge via lower latitudes pulling in hot air as that will really damage the ice. We saw what happened in the early part of July 2015 when that occurred.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2099 on: July 03, 2020, 01:06:03 PM »
IMO the day-over-day change in Laptev viewable in EOSDIS indicates the impending situation will result in 2020 taking a mile-long lead.

The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

The year over year comparison is shocking, lol. Laptev just went poof!

I completely agree. Now I’ve looked at the state of the Laptev Sea on July 1, 2012, and it is simply incomparable with the current situation.

This year is most likely to break the 2012 record among any of the last 8 years.

But yesterday, all the same, doubts arose that the 2012 record would be broken. On the second place by the minimum ice extent in the Laptev Sea on July 1, not 2012, 2014 (data NSDIC extent):

2006 776480
2007 652207
2008 834249
2009 648506
2010 683053
2011 658762
2012 742400
2013 668217
2014 551100
2015 805037
2016 863015
2017 776601
2018 645472
2019 599350
2020 498466

2014 is only 50,000 km2 behind 2020. In 2014, there was weak melting (minimum about 5 million km2), although the edge of sea ice receded to 85 degrees.

So fortunately, the 2012 record this year is not in danger. Most likely the forecast according to SMOS for June is the most accurate.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2341.100.html

Quote
The June monthly average has a good correlation with the September NSIDC sea ice extent.  The correlation coefficient is 0.86 over 2010-2019  (and even 0.95 if 2010 is excluded).  FWIW, this would give a prediction for the September 2020 NSIDC extent of 4.49 +/- 0.52 million km2 (95% prediction interval).