So, as a non-expert, let me see if I have got this straight... (and my mistakes, if corrected, may help illuminate matters for some other Frazilers)
The current anticyclone over the pole looks set to compact the ice and warm the Arctic generally.
a. It will compact the ice pack by 'pulling' ice inwards (really the Coriolis Effect), probably producing much more open water in the Chukchi, ESS and Laptev, and maybe in the Beaufort too. This is already happening.
b. The extra areas of exposed seawater will then soak up a whole lot of near-maximum 24/7 Arctic insolation, warming their surface waters. The warm water will remain at the surface because of its low density. (Upwelling may also occur in places, bringing warm, saline water to the surface in places.) All this seems probable, especially with the forecast clear skies.
d. Compaction will probably make for dramatic extent losses, but not necessarily in and of itself be terrible for the ice in terms of ice volume, since overall melting will be reduced when all the ice is together.
The rest is more speculative. Anything can happen and has happened during melting seasons, producing far different results than anticipated at the time. But here is a plausible scenario which I think many have been explicitly or implicitly discussing:
What would be a really bad sequel is, IF , after all this compaction of ice and warming of surrounding water has occurred, storms/cyclonic/dipole systems enter the Arctic region. Such events would not only bring in atmospheric heat, but also, more importantly, disperse the compacted ice into the newly warmed surrounding seas (Laptev, ESS etc). In this situation, ice would melt rapidly, because the heat transfer from surrounding water is generally more destructive to ice than heat transfer from the air. At this point, it might not matter much if the weather is cloudy or not.
I know there are many factors missing here (ocean currents etc) ... I welcome corrections if anyone has the time and look forward to learning more...