Wow, GFS, ECMWF, and Nullschool all agree on the Great Arctic Anti-Cyclone (GAAC) sticking around for at least another week, albeit weakening somewhat. In addition, the backside of the GAAC in the Chukchi and ESS is slated to have cooler air aloft (850 mb at -5C) and chilly temperatures at the surface (as low as -0.5C), so there may be some surface refreezing there. But it is also slated to have very strong winds, so it may not be great for the slushy ice there anyways, sitting adjacent to some 2C water and with upwelling likely from the choppy seas.
And then on the front side (Laptev/Kara front), the warm air aloft (5C) and surface temps (1C) are going to be replenished from a warm air mass coming off of the Taymyr Peninsula. There will also be very strong winds here. We may actually see the Atlantic ice front really crumble beyond the continental shelf line in a big way for the first time in recorded history this summer, if this consistent southerly fetch from the GAAC keeps up.
Also, the Beaufort is slated to have cool air aloft (as the cool backside of the GAAC develops towards the Chukchi), but then followed a few days later by gentle warm southerly winds coming off the Mackenzie Delta and clear skies.
The CAA looks like it will have good conditions for melting throughout. The recent slowdown in area drops probably has to do with melt ponds draining here. The ice in a lot of the channels is transitioning to a very thin grayish appearance (Tanquary fiord on Ellesmere Island is a good example of this). Once that benchmark is reached, expect full melt-out 2-3 weeks later.
And finally, Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay are doing their usual thing. Not late or early, and looking quite irrelevant to the melt in the rest of the arctic. Ice will be gone in these spots by Aug. 1st. Expect that to factor into some big area & extent drops.