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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2750 on: July 15, 2020, 04:21:49 AM »

And that would now be a crack visible and widening along the whole coast of northern Greenland, from the Atlantic to the Nares.

Holy guacamole.

Has this happened before?   In July?
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 04:41:22 AM by Pagophilus »
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2751 on: July 15, 2020, 04:42:38 AM »
Additional possibility to high insolation and thinness of sea ice cover feeding to microbial growth within and beneath sea ice may be destabilised methane hydrates releasing up methane, carbon dioxide, and nutrients in bursts to sea water in East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea. The area of grey and brown is deepening in colour tone and widening on area extent, yet it is within unbroken sea ice area in shallow Russian continental shelf. Vortices of nutrient rich riparian discharges might also be a contributor to it:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-738231.7242011561,798688.0907794486,-369591.72420115606,1012960.0907794486&p=arctic&z=2  8)
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 05:11:32 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2752 on: July 15, 2020, 05:09:36 AM »
If my eyes are right, the old leads in sea ice have today melted through and open water. This makes dispersion easier and increases sunlight retention along the long black lines. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1243287.3783722145,401062.8107039131,-874647.3783722145,615334.8107039131&p=arctic&t=2020-07-15-T02%3A01%3A52Z
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Killian

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2753 on: July 15, 2020, 05:15:10 AM »
WOW!!! The last few weeks have been incredible. I don’t have the way with words that Friv has, but this has been fun to watch!

Below is a map posted today on Twitter by Rick Thoman that I think will be very important to watch as we go forward and think about a possible record.  It shows the sea ice rankings for this day in each of the Arctic seas.

Worth keeping in mind that Greenland Sea number is actually worse the bigger it is as it indicates export out of the Arctic basin. At that high a number, it's kinda equivalent to a 1~3.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2754 on: July 15, 2020, 05:20:35 AM »

Worth keeping in mind that Greenland Sea number is actually worse the bigger it is as it indicates export out of the Arctic basin. At that high a number, it's kinda equivalent to a 1~3.

That is a very good point! I have been worried about export this entire time. It has become hard to tell how much ice is getting exported because the Atlantic waters are melting it so fast.

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2755 on: July 15, 2020, 05:22:17 AM »
52 hour loop, Laptev bite. Click to run.
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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2756 on: July 15, 2020, 05:32:34 AM »
Has anyone mentioned the possibility this year of the unfathomable passage?  What would it be called, the North North Passage, Central Passage, “I Can’t Believe The Ice Is Not Better Passage”.  I am speaking of course, while amazed to be seriously talking about it, a navigable passage from the Atlantic through the Fram, over the north Greenland coast, north past of all the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Beaufort Sea to Pacific, nothing but net 0 ice.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 06:03:04 AM by ArcTickTock »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2757 on: July 15, 2020, 05:44:30 AM »
ATT, a few days ago I referrred to this choice as the "circum-polar" route. However, it would be an extremely dangerous endeavour, should the winds change and the polar ice return to the long coastlines in question, where no help and rescue services will be available for the foreseeable future.





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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2758 on: July 15, 2020, 05:49:52 AM »
JayW - great loop. If you watch the protruding arm it is really interesting to watch as the ice spreads and then contracts twice and is just starting a third expansion at the end of the loop - each time it contracts you can see it has also suffered significant melting. Not sure what is the cause - it is so regular it must be some tidal movement (or a pulsing upwelling?)

The face of the rest of the ice does not seem to be affected by whatever is cause that arm to 'pulse'.

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2759 on: July 15, 2020, 05:56:36 AM »
JayW - great loop. If you watch the protruding arm it is really interesting to watch as the ice spreads and then contracts twice and is just starting a third expansion at the end of the loop - each time it contracts you can see it has also suffered significant melting. Not sure what is the cause - it is so regular it must be some tidal movement (or a pulsing upwelling?)

The face of the rest of the ice does not seem to be affected by whatever is cause that arm to 'pulse'.
Not every orbital swath can capture the area, so there's a roughly 12 hour gap between days that the JPSS satellites can't see, that's the "surge" you see.  Otherwise, it's about 50 minutes between frames, sometimes 100 depending on image availability.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2760 on: July 15, 2020, 06:10:50 AM »
I refrained from commenting on Juan’s post on the data thread, because that thread is for the data.

But, Damn! The ice is taking a beating right now!!! Thank you Juan for keeping us informed!

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2761 on: July 15, 2020, 06:11:00 AM »
ATT, a few days ago I referrred to this choice as the "circum-polar" route. However, it would be an extremely dangerous endeavour, should the winds change and the polar ice return to the long coastlines in question, where no help and rescue services will be available for the foreseeable future.

Agreed P-Maker, it would be dangerous, well, probably the first time it happened anyway.  But think about how not that many years ago conventional wisdom held that the MYI was so entrenched just north of Greenland and the CAA that thick ice was expected to remain here long after the first BOE.  Times, they are a changin’.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2762 on: July 15, 2020, 06:25:01 AM »
JayW - great loop. If you watch the protruding arm it is really interesting to watch as the ice spreads and then contracts twice and is just starting a third expansion at the end of the loop - each time it contracts you can see it has also suffered significant melting. Not sure what is the cause - it is so regular it must be some tidal movement (or a pulsing upwelling?)

The face of the rest of the ice does not seem to be affected by whatever is cause that arm to 'pulse'.

Isn’t it unhealthy for the ice to ever pass back over melted out areas that have been insolated near the peak of the season.  I would have to look at the math for sun angle and albedo, seem to recall that 50% of the received insolation will be IR and get dropped almost entirely in the first meter of water depth, thats just a ton of heat that cannot sink down and then you get loads of long wavelength visible light as well.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2763 on: July 15, 2020, 06:28:55 AM »
I think this is strongly related to what is happening in the Laptev and ESS this year (and the record-breaking heat YTD in Northern Siberia). We have seen a signal for a snowier Himalayas in recent years however we have been unable to verify whether it is noise or actually accurate, as many of the websites whose data we use for SWE / extent is not accessible beyond what we have recorded here on ASIF. There has been much speculation that I certainly agreed with that the Himalayan data may have been wrong or incorrect.

I took a look at June-July (to date -- 6/1-7/12) temp anomalies since and including 2010. One of these years is not like the others across Eurasia, in fact, the temperature anomalies in the Himalayas this year are downright frigid and ranging up to 8C below normal in peak summertime -- I can't imagine that is doing wonders for snow levels, and I would also imagine all that extra remaining +SWE in the highest altitudes of the Plateau / ranges is helping to seed the worsening summer rainfall event over Western China as incoming airmasses move overtop the mountains.

At the same time as the increased precipitation in this region is driving more year-round depth and extent in the Himalayas this year, it is having another major impact. I would wager the excess albedo at such low latitudes is having a profound impact on polar heat transport and is likely to dramatically accelerate the process. Such widespread temperature departures comport to negative -500MB anomalies which basically means there is an increasingly less temporary area of polar vorticity atop the Himalayas now gaining relative strength to the primary gyre in the Arctic.

As we see more heat accumulate in the Indian Ocean and this is transported northwards, more snows fall in the high Himalayas, dragging down the snow line, and INCREASING the efficiency of the heat transport as we head deeper into the year. Basically, as we see more snow linger in high elevations and low latitudes, the enhanced baroclinic gradient is going to send more and more of the surrounding continental and oceanic heat (ever-more amplified by our ever-rising GHGs) northward into the primary polar cell, ultimately destroying it earlier and earlier each and every year. The other anomalous patches of continental snowfall in North America are having the same impact, IMO, and while the impact shifts regionally year over year it is now seemingly WORSENING as a whole which is becoming a driving contributor to Arctic amplification. 

For the time of year, Eurasian SWE is apparently now a month behind normal... which comports very well with the anomaly map. While 200KM^3 of volume may not sound like a lot, when it is distributed atop the mid/low-latitudes at peak insolation.... that is a lot of disparity now relative to the old regime, especially with all the albedo loss in the Arctic! (PS, the +200KM^3 of volume is apparently worth about a million extra KM^2 in area!)

Also -- oren -- please feel free to move this to "snowfall" but I felt this was very relevant and a definite cause of our predicament in the High Arctic this year / will be a major contributing factor in warming up north moving forward.

PPS: July to date in particular has been.... surprisingly frigid (???)... in Arctic-adjacent Siberia. A whole lot of good that cold is doing for the ice....

<I will let it stay this time, but normally such long discussions which are mostly about something else would best be served in a more relevant thread, in this case the "snow" thread. O>
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 11:10:23 AM by oren »

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2764 on: July 15, 2020, 07:15:40 AM »
Only needs to drop 3,950,000 or so. If we assume to lose around 100k a day, that means we can do it in around 40 days (if my math is right). That means around august 23rd. Obviously the Arctic doesn't work that way, but, I am confident we will have no problem beating 2012 if things don't change soon
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2765 on: July 15, 2020, 07:59:40 AM »
July 10-14.

2019.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2766 on: July 15, 2020, 08:04:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 14th, 2020:
     7,117,005 km2, a drop of -186,534 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent


I was looking at the concentration maps from the 13th to 14th.  Yeah it was very clear that a huge drop was going to take place.  There was major compaction/melt over the Atlantic rim around through the Laptev and half the ESS.

Also the Hudson Bay saw a huge drop.

Amazing.  I'm starting to think 2020 can drop down to 2.8-2.9 million km2.

If we see the Beaufort region collapse then 2.5 million is on the table.

If the CAB and lower CAB reach critical thickness 0.5-0.75M over a large swath then a major to severe wound up cyclone in mid to late August could be a disaster.
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MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2767 on: July 15, 2020, 08:11:58 AM »
Wow what a lead, 2019 didn't drop under 7,000,000km2 until the 21st, if we get another century drop or so on the 15th, extent for 2020 being under 7mil will be ahead of 2019 by 6 days!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2768 on: July 15, 2020, 08:19:42 AM »
Good morning Aluminium ^^ yet another shocker ! Thanks for providing this visual feast so regularly . I was wondering if you could post a gif of the first half of July so we can fully grasp the momentum brought about by this AAC . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2769 on: July 15, 2020, 08:39:17 AM »
HOLY SHIT!!!

THROUGH 144 HOURS THE 00Z EURO IS UNBELIEVABLY[ BAD FOR THE ICE.

BARRING A COMPLETE. REVERSAL OF THE WEATHER RIGHT NOW.  2020 IS GOING TO OBLITERATE THE RECORDS. 

WE COULD SERIOUSLY END UP WITH THE ATLANTIC IXE EDGE REACHING 86-87N NEAR SVALBARD WHILE THE LAPTEV SIDE IS OPEN TO THE POLE AND THE ESS IS OPEN TO 85N... Same with Chuchki.

Maybe even worse.  THE AMOUNT OF HEAT NEXT WEEK COMING IN FROM SIBERIA IS JUST..

WHAT THE FYCK???
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RikW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2770 on: July 15, 2020, 08:41:10 AM »
It's shocking to see how the ice is drifting away from the canadian coast

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2771 on: July 15, 2020, 08:43:22 AM »
Is this REAL LIFE??

ARE YOU FRRAKING KIDDING ME.....

8-14C 850s plowing into the basin...

DAFUQ????

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Darvince

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2772 on: July 15, 2020, 08:52:58 AM »
How much area is in that dud ice in the ESS and how fast do we think we can expect that ice to go?

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2773 on: July 15, 2020, 08:54:32 AM »
Has anyone mentioned the possibility this year of the unfathomable passage?  What would it be called, the North North Passage, Central Passage, “I Can’t Believe The Ice Is Not Better Passage”.  I am speaking of course, while amazed to be seriously talking about it, a navigable passage from the Atlantic through to Pacific.

I'd call it the OTT Passage.  ;)

Hopefully it is ott this year. But at the rate things are declining it won't be long in the future.

romett1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2774 on: July 15, 2020, 09:01:38 AM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - Laptev -> North Pole.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2775 on: July 15, 2020, 09:04:22 AM »
The southerly fetch in the Laptev bite is going to cause waves to develop if the prog verifies at 192 and 216 hours. Yes, not only is it going to be a crazy heat wave at the 850 level but the ice in the central Arctic sea ice is going to be pushed back  by several days of significant waves if the southerly fetch develops as forecast. This is an I can't sleep at night situation.

Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2776 on: July 15, 2020, 09:05:40 AM »
The extra volume in the Beaufort sea means the extent will continue to drop in the late August and September. I also expect the late minimun like it was last year. Meanwhile the Blue Ocean in Siberian side could be seen by the end of July. The ocean will be too warm, the ice in the high Arctic will be too thin and the total disaster is possible

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2777 on: July 15, 2020, 09:05:41 AM »
The sun is shining bright all over the basin.

Everyone keeps saying the Ice is compact but that's just not correct.  When you look close on Modis WORLDVIEW you can see how thin the ice is with TONS of HUGE MELT LAKES AND embedded open water.

The concentration is not super low because most of the ice has drained.

This is crazy. We are probably going to see LARGE REGIONS OF THE CAB MELT OUT INSITU.
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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2778 on: July 15, 2020, 09:17:31 AM »
The high latitude blocking we have seen develop in previous summers has been a prelude to the scenario now unfolding which points to a future of even more anomalously permanent anticyclones. The GAC in 2012 was anomalous. The GAAC in 2020 is a point in a continuum where such a pattern is a new normal and even more enhanced than what we have observed so far this year.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2779 on: July 15, 2020, 09:24:47 AM »

And that would now be a crack visible and widening along the whole coast of northern Greenland, from the Atlantic to the Nares.

Holy guacamole.

Has this happened before?   In July?
The down button on year makes it easy to flip through the 20 years available on worldview and check.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2780 on: July 15, 2020, 09:41:40 AM »
The sun is shining bright all over the basin.

Everyone keeps saying the Ice is compact but that's just not correct.  When you look close on Modis WORLDVIEW you can see how thin the ice is with TONS of HUGE MELT LAKES AND embedded open water.

The concentration is not super low because most of the ice has drained.

This is crazy. We are probably going to see LARGE REGIONS OF THE CAB MELT OUT INSITU.

The ice appears more compact because of the anomolous high in 2D as shown in gerontocrats graphs. I agree its the 3D we need to worry about at this point. Thats why we need to watch, wait and learn.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2781 on: July 15, 2020, 09:56:21 AM »
I know this is a stupid thing to say but even if all the ice melts out wont it just come back in Winter like always and be like minus 40c.

Hudson does as do other areas year on year.

Is it the sea level rise that's the problem? The weather is already volatile.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2782 on: July 15, 2020, 10:20:59 AM »
I guess we will see now how much the ice melt is really constrained by bathymetry if hit by extreme insolation and heat...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2783 on: July 15, 2020, 10:22:40 AM »
I know this is a stupid thing to say but even if all the ice melts out wont it just come back in Winter like always and be like minus 40c.

It will. But it is the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Can't we be a little bit "enthusiastic" if extraordinary things (are about to) happen?
 :)

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2784 on: July 15, 2020, 10:25:41 AM »
Only needs to drop 3,950,000 or so. If we assume to lose around 100k a day, that means we can do it in around 40 days (if my math is right). That means around august 23rd. Obviously the Arctic doesn't work that way, but, I am confident we will have no problem beating 2012 if things don't change soon

Let's take a hypothetical mininum at 13 Sept, that's some 61 days away.
So per day average loss to reach 2012 minimum is 3,950,000 / 61 = 64,754 Km².
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2785 on: July 15, 2020, 10:28:32 AM »
I know this is a stupid thing to say but even if all the ice melts out wont it just come back in Winter like always and be like minus 40c.

Hudson does as do other areas year on year.

Is it the sea level rise that's the problem? The weather is already volatile.
sea ice is already floating so it doesn't impact sea level. Melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica  will cause Sea Level Rise. If you don't think Sea Ice is important consider this. The longest day of the year is at the solstice in June. The warmest weather in the NH is in August. The delay is because of ice in the Arctic.

How much hotter do you think it will get when there is not much Arctic Ice at the end of winter? How much hotter will summer be if a BOE occurs in July? Think about it.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2786 on: July 15, 2020, 10:29:35 AM »

And that would now be a crack visible and widening along the whole coast of northern Greenland, from the Atlantic to the Nares.

Holy guacamole.

Has this happened before?   In July?

It was June 18th of last year that I raised a question in the melt season thread about the newly appeared mega crack. The question was greeted with some confusion; it was assumed by many that the crack was a fleeting feature that would close again soon, and so few had paid much attention to it. Since then, more capable posters have taken up the discussion of what appears to have become a new feature of arctic summer sea ice.


The Atlantic side is almost completely exposed to open ocean since it finally pulled away from the islands. As it moves back and forth in the warm water it sloshes around and melts rapidly. Same goes with compaction, which brings ice floes into greater contact as the ocean moves, wearing down the floes from the edges, the bottom and the top. The ice looks terrible, including in large parts of the Beaufort. Have to wonder how we will escape disaster now.

MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2787 on: July 15, 2020, 10:46:07 AM »
On a scale from 1-10, how screwed is the ice next week?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2788 on: July 15, 2020, 10:51:26 AM »
Have to wonder how we will escape disaster now.

There is a high probability that the September minimum of 2012 will stand. In July 2011, on July 20, the ice extent was 400 thousand km2 ahead of 2007, but the 2007 record was not broken.
The current situation does not guarantee a catastrophe in September.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2789 on: July 15, 2020, 11:01:22 AM »
On a scale from 1-10, how screwed is the ice next week?

8. As the Arctic taught me, it could always come worse (9) or there might appear an unexpected event (10). So, yes, I would say it's 8. And the probability to reverse to 7 is higher than reaching 9.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2790 on: July 15, 2020, 11:14:21 AM »

There is a high probability that the September minimum of 2012 will stand. In July 2011, on July 20, the ice extent was 400 thousand km2 ahead of 2007, but the 2007 record was not broken.
The current situation does not guarantee a catastrophe in September.
I don't know what happened in 2011 but it may be different this time.

We are presently 560 thousand km2 ahead of record year 2012 and the melting is extremely strong at the moment. Even more worrying, weather forecast suggests melting will not only continue in the next 7 days but it will accelerate.

Granted, 2012 lost massive amounts of ice in August and there is still plenty of time until the Sep minimum. However IMO probability of not reaching the new record is getting smaller every day.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2791 on: July 15, 2020, 11:25:09 AM »
From the data thread:

“Grandfathering” in Gerontocrat’s excellent analyses seems somehow highly appropriate  :)

So why would you do it with this very comment, Silkman? I'm so confused right now.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2792 on: July 15, 2020, 11:28:37 AM »
We are presently 560 thousand km2 ahead of record year 2012 and the melting is extremely strong at the moment. Even more worrying, weather forecast suggests melting will not only continue in the next 7 days but it will accelerate.

Granted, 2012 lost massive amounts of ice in August and there is still plenty of time until the Sep minimum. However IMO probability of not reaching the new record is getting smaller every day.

2012 broke the record with the help of the infamous GAC. We will need a very special August or 2020 will stay second. July melt momentum alone won't be enough, in August insolation is weak already and only a major storm can move the energy stored in the water close enough to the ice.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2793 on: July 15, 2020, 11:56:11 AM »
I know this is a stupid thing to say but even if all the ice melts out wont it just come back in Winter like always and be like minus 40c.

Hudson does as do other areas year on year.

Is it the sea level rise that's the problem? The weather is already volatile.
sea ice is already floating so it doesn't impact sea level. Melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica  will cause Sea Level Rise. If you don't think Sea Ice is important consider this. The longest day of the year is at the solstice in June. The warmest weather in the NH is in August. The delay is because of ice in the Arctic.

How much hotter do you think it will get when there is not much Arctic Ice at the end of winter? How much hotter will summer be if a BOE occurs in July? Think about it.

I do think about it but will it be hotter?  In 2012 when lots of ice was gone it wasnt much hotter. It will be more changeable and maybe very hot and then very cold. I know it is not good but we will see at the end of this melt season a wide open Arctic but the worldwide weather wont change much.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2794 on: July 15, 2020, 11:58:15 AM »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2795 on: July 15, 2020, 11:59:52 AM »
To all, discussions of what would happen after a BOE should be held in a separate thread. There were several such over the years, though my quick search didn't bring up an obvious candidate. Feel free to start a new one or revive an old one.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2796 on: July 15, 2020, 12:00:48 PM »
I don't know what happened in 2011 but it may be different this time.

Then there was a strong anticyclone until about July 20, similar to the current one. When he disappeared, then the melting stopped abruptly.

There are many similar to 2011. For example, now it is 2011 that is in second place according to JAXA data. 2011 was characterized by the strongest melting of ice in July.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2019/08/Figure3.png

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2797 on: July 15, 2020, 12:18:56 PM »

There is a high probability that the September minimum of 2012 will stand. In July 2011, on July 20, the ice extent was 400 thousand km2 ahead of 2007, but the 2007 record was not broken.
The current situation does not guarantee a catastrophe in September.

I think we might be extrapolating from a single data point.

Unless I am very mistaken, both the GFS and ECMWF show a string of Low Pressures pushing a ton of heat right over all the open water that has been heating up in the Laptev and towards the pole. Meanwhile, there is a ton of sea ice near 70 degrees in the Beaufort that can melt late into the season.

Personally, I think the 2012 low will be broken before September. Especially if D5-10 on the forecasts confirm, not only are be going to be absolutely destroying the CAB, we are also going to be pushing an epic amount of ice out towards the Fram and causing the ice to bulge out towards the warmer lower latitudes.

I cannot remember any parallels to the action this year, so comparing it to 2011, just because it was similarly lower than the previous record, seems flawed.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2798 on: July 15, 2020, 12:21:29 PM »
I do think melt will stop this pace in a couple of weeks
It cant melt this much once the high gets dislodged which I presume will happen within next 10 days.

Then the other years will probably start to catch up but with this melt JAXA is now ensured of a place in the top 3 or maybe at the top tree.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2799 on: July 15, 2020, 12:35:38 PM »
I cannot remember any parallels to the action this year, so comparing it to 2011, just because it was similarly lower than the previous record, seems flawed.

There are many similarities. Another. Until this summer, in 2011 there was a record of the earliest opening of the Northeast Passage.

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1156567447228637184