Phoenix, my apologies. I see that there is legitimate confusion on how to measure and or estimate the energy balance over the Arctic ocean. One participant, who's name I forget, pointed out that the energy balance and surface temperatures change when the melt ponds drain. However, I'm not seeing evidence of the whitish surface that we see in August after the melt ponds drain.
May I remind everyone that the experts and their models have not done better at predicting the September minimum than the consensus of amateurs and professionals at this forum. Some of the models used by experienced scientists have been pretty damn bad at predicting September extent.
So, I suggest that we all recognize that we all have a lot to learn, especially me. I'm perplexed by the energy balance over the past month because I see many inconsistencies. I am also very disturbed that the stratospheric end warmings of the polar vortex the past 2 years have been so sudden and intense and appear to be contributing to rapid warming over the polar region that extends from the surface high to the upper stratosphere. And even the experts, such as Judah Cohen, struggled to explain the physics of what happened this spring with the end warming. Things are happening that need better understanding and explanation.
Note that there could be a sudden transition to a strong positive Arctic oscillation in September or perhaps mid August and that the warm water in the Barents sea will tend to displace the stratospheric polar vortex towards the Atlantic side of the Arctic.