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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2950 on: July 16, 2020, 07:17:36 PM »
Oh wow look, let me make the SAME statement I've made like everyday this year: look at how clear 2/3 the pack is(!)

What is going on down there?? I suppose I just never realized just how much damage clear skies can impart on the ice. I mean pretty much anywhere you look is undergoing changes none of us have really seen before. The Laptev bite is eating ice faster than I actually thought was possible, the Greenland/CAA mega crack is only becoming more pronounced, the sustained temperatures are completely decimating the ice on Greenland, and now it's totally clear in the Beaufort.

There are just so many factors at play here, but every single day this week since Monday, the high pressure dome has only strengthened. Moreover, this is mid-July - there is still so much more time for the ice to get hammered from all sides. We can wait to see if that cyclone forms that is forecast a long way out, but I'm not sure if it will be able to displace the high pressure dome.

What's truly astonishing to me is the melting unfolding in the Lincoln sea. That entire area has been under almost nonstop 32-60f weather. Plus, I'm going to have a kinda hot take and say that I *do* think the 20+ mile fetch of open water caused by the crack is warming and now melting the surrounding ice; even if you disagree with that, the waves in that region will certainly have an effect on the surrounding ice.

And lastly, I do want to add this because I saw it mentioned: but the arctic seas/ocean are certainly warming up...just look at the temperature gradients. Compare that to a week ago and you will note how it's all heating.



« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 07:51:07 PM by oren »
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grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2951 on: July 16, 2020, 07:42:27 PM »
The evolution of some dark stains 86N in the CAB. Big gif.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2952 on: July 16, 2020, 07:59:28 PM »
GSY, igs, F Tnioli, I get the humor, but please refrain as there are too many people reading and posting (in what could become a historic melt season).
To all, please remember there is the melting season chatter thread where you can run all the jokes and light commentary that you desire.

romett1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2953 on: July 16, 2020, 08:00:00 PM »
12Z GFS - This is forecast for July 22th - wind and rain over North Pole. Not too far away.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2954 on: July 16, 2020, 08:09:53 PM »
I don’t know how valuable this exercise is, but I’ve been thinking about it, so I’m Going to try to get it out of my system.

Jdallen mentioned that under this HP we could be seeing 5-10cm per day of top melt. Someone else posted a nice reply to a previous question I posted about bottom melt, but I’m having trouble finding replies to my posts, so I’ll paraphrase: 2013 (I think it was that year) bottom Melt ranged from 30-70cm.

So, if the HP system lasts for 20 days, as forecast, and we suppose there is 3-8cm of top melt per day (assuming there is some cloud Part of the time) that’s 60-160cm of too melt just during the period in question.

If we add bottom melt to that, we get 90-230cm of melt everywhere in the arctic, with an average of somewhere around 160cm of melt, just starting at July 1st, without any extra top melt after July 20th.

This seems pretty high to me, but if we consider that some proportion of the solar energy is passing Through the ice and warming the water underneath, and later season wind could stir that energy up, we have to consider that bottom melt in August might be increased quite a bit.

If we add A conservative 10cm more bottom melt across the board, we get 100-240cm of melt, with an average of around 170cm.

From there, I want to narrow the range, making an assumption that most areas will see 120-200cm of melting. I take this to mean that Ice <100cm on July 1st is doomed, ice <150cm will probably mostly melt out and become slush, and ice between 150-200cm will be greatly reduced to a mix of open water and small floes.

I’ve crudely drawn this onto the last piomass map. The end result looks pretty bad, and if there are any large wind events that disperse this already hammered ice, it could get even worse.




marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2955 on: July 16, 2020, 08:14:51 PM »
12Z GFS - This is forecast for July 22th - wind and rain over North Pole. Not too far away.

Oh crap, that looks like a disaster for the ice. If I’m reading that right, that’s a lot of dispersal From the CAB into the ESS and Laptev and Atlantic. And maybe even CAA garlic press.

josh-j

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2956 on: July 16, 2020, 08:48:11 PM »
No it isn't:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172

It is however currently showing a very early minimum

I know its already been stated up-thread, but to be clear - the blue line going up at the end of the prediction range in Slater's model does not mean it is showing a minimum. It just means that what it just predicted at the end of the lead time is higher than what it predicted at the end of the (then) lead time a few days ago.

It does NOT redraw the blue line each model run. It adds the new lead-time prediction to the end of the line. The line is a history of the predictions at a fixed lead time. There's a whole thread about this somewhere, I seem to remember it got a bit heated because of the definition of a "trend"  ;)

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2957 on: July 16, 2020, 08:53:52 PM »
There's a whole thread about this somewhere

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1682.0.html

Slater model discussion should be posted here. Informative thread.  :)

JNap

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2958 on: July 16, 2020, 09:20:43 PM »
I don’t know how valuable this exercise is, but I’ve been thinking about it, so I’m Going to try to get it out of my system.

marcel_g,  Thanks for pulling together your thoughts regarding top and bottom melting rates.  I too have seem similar estimates for the melt rates.  I have no specific scientific papers to confirm them but they do seem reasonable given what we have observed in past years and what has been occurring with the GAAC in July.

I appreciate how you then drew up the possible resulting melt scenarios.  I think that we will end up close to the blue line that you drew.

I did a rough trace of your blue line in Worldview to get an estimate of the area:  1.525 M km2.   That would be only about 50% then the record 2012 low!! (Some area in the CAA channels would likely need to be added to get a better approximation.)   It is hard to believe that we could get to that level this year.  But 2020 may continue to surprise.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 10:08:37 PM by JNap »
Science matters.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2959 on: July 16, 2020, 09:53:44 PM »
I feel like we go through this every year with melt pond draining. A spike of over-excitement when area figures drop precipitously initially, followed by all the contrarian posts and posters about 1-2 weeks later when they drain.

We know the mechanism behind the numbers and there is plenty of published literature on how it works. The area drop (and albedo changes) were right in line with that literature. A big drop, a recovery, plateau, slow decline as it thins, then a precipitous decline when thickness gets very low. We're in stage 3/4 right now across most of the basin. The ESS and Chukchi are closer to end-stage. Nobody can seriously posit that this big block has somehow been "great for the ice" or even good under high insolation. That's not how any of this works.

Don't believe it? Just pan through MODIS images on Hudson Bay every year and you'll see it go through all the stages listed above. Pack looks really bright/white after the initial set of ponds drain and it's compacted on one side of the bay.

If you want another indicator, pan in over Severnaya Zemyla and observe the the extensive ablation and snowpack retreat up the ice caps with time since the blocking event began. You'd be hard pressed to find another event so prominent.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 09:59:35 PM by Csnavywx »

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2960 on: July 16, 2020, 10:03:29 PM »
The ice in the Victoria Strait (SE of Victoria Island in the CAA) is starting to break up.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2961 on: July 16, 2020, 10:13:13 PM »
<snippage>
I would suggest that the  wave height would probably drop once its reached the deeper parts of the basin, although the layering could create a form of homeostasis
Nope.  If anything deeper water will produce *larger* waves.

What manner of "layering" are you talking about?  High wind is always hugely disruptive to the water column.  It won't cause any kind of layering.
If going to a shallow area produces higher waves, is what I extrapolated from, if you have a source on the opposite claim it is more than welcome. Even high wind can do mixing at depth, so at least some form of layer will remain, in deep waters.
The formation of waves is not reciprocal.  The medium itself is not moving, or at least, not as fast as the energy, which is what causes the waves.

Waves getting taller near shore is a result of energy stacking up, not water.  What you would seei are the effects of refraction, which will increase wavelength and speed.  The energy is still there and will still be just as destructive.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2962 on: July 16, 2020, 10:25:48 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent


That's incredible.  The ice  losses will slow down because this summer would essentially  be melted  out if it doesn't. 

And because the thicker ice(2 Meters+) which is also the older 2-5 year old ice  is soon to be the only ice left.  And we are going to see a lot of it vanish this summer.
I think it needs to be pointed out here...

Average loss over the last 5 years between the current date and minimum works out to approximately 3.58 million km2.

That gives us a September minimum of approximately 3.4 million km2.

Emphasizing... With *Average* melt. Average.

Even the lowest of the last 20-odd (2014) would put us in spitting distance of 2nd-4th.

2nd lowest minimum is almost a certainty at this point.

If we see melt like 2012, we're looking at a September minimum of 2.5 million km2 +/- pocket change.

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OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2963 on: July 16, 2020, 10:38:10 PM »
I split the Hycom month animation of thickness and this is three weeks ago, today, and forecast in a week.
The melt last three weeks has been phenomenal. Maybe of even more concerns is the rapad rotation of the pack, looks at risk of clearing out the entire atlantic front above greenland back to the lomonosov from lincoln to the pole. And unravelling the thickest ice from CAA to the pole into dispersed zombie floes in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2964 on: July 16, 2020, 10:51:53 PM »
Great view of Lincoln Sea from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php

But what a broken up mess. Tell me I'm wrong, but I remember from last year great arches spanning the entrance to the Nares Strait holding back the ice from entering the strait.
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igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2965 on: July 16, 2020, 10:52:10 PM »
I feel like we go through this every year with melt pond draining. A spike of over-excitement when area figures drop precipitously initially, followed by all the contrarian posts and posters about 1-2 weeks later when they drain. .......................

What you say is true but what to you want to tell us?  It's a question in case i missed the point)

I think the exitement is totally justified this year as it was last year and the years before that.

After all we are at record low this year and have ended 2nd lowest last year etc. etc.

So independent of the detailed outcome each year, alone the fact that we end regularly at the top of the list while the average thickness is downtrending and the MYI is fastly approaching the "none left" term is worth the exitement.

Also i do not really know why each time things ARE and not only look dire some try to prove the opposite and vice versa.

This season is a bummer for the ice even if the curve would flatten out today. All what happens is illustration the trend so that we can observe not only formulas and models but verify through real events.

romett1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2966 on: July 16, 2020, 11:00:35 PM »
Animated version Monday to Thursday next week. Warning: 3.1 MB file.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2967 on: July 16, 2020, 11:11:43 PM »
Attached is a gif (quite big ~9.7mb), showing the projections of the 2020 NSIDC extent using the extent losses of the last 20 years, and starting in March. Unfortunately, the NSIDC data hasn't updated since the 12th, so I'm fascinated to see how it looks now!
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2968 on: July 16, 2020, 11:37:28 PM »
Perhaps it would be best to research how such models work, before making comments in the future.

Dude,

Back in the good old days I discussed the then novel SPIE model with Andrew Slater in these hallowed halls:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg25903.html#msg25903

If you had clicked the link I helpfully provided above you would have seen that I recently stated that the 2020 blue line "seems rather 'non physical' to say the least".

Nonetheless it is still "currently showing a very early minimum". See below.

Do you suppose that the red line will continue to closely follow the blue line for the second half of July?


 

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

UCMiami

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2969 on: July 17, 2020, 12:08:49 AM »
Great view of Lincoln Sea from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php

But what a broken up mess. Tell me I'm wrong, but I remember from last year great arches spanning the entrance to the Nares Strait holding back the ice from entering the strait.
What I find interesting over the last week is that very little of the Lincoln sea ice is actually moving in a southerly direction at all - the whole sea seems to be heading due west to ride above Ellesmere including all the ice on the NE shore of Ellesmere. The only section of the Lincoln that is heading southerly is about a 35 KM by 20 KM section of ruble and flows on the very coast of NW Greenland, and this is not replenishing because the crack NE of Greenland is moving westward.

This would appear to be the effect of the GAAC. Until the Artic enters a new weather pattern, I wonder if the Nares or the CAA will be an export route.

ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2970 on: July 17, 2020, 01:07:47 AM »

If going to a shallow area produces higher waves, is what I extrapolated from, if you have a source on the opposite claim it is more than welcome. Even high wind can do mixing at depth, so at least some form of layer will remain, in deep waters.
The formation of waves is not reciprocal.  The medium itself is not moving, or at least, not as fast as the energy, which is what causes the waves.

Waves getting taller near shore is a result of energy stacking up, not water.  What you would seei are the effects of refraction, which will increase wavelength and speed.  The energy is still there and will still be just as destructive.
However I only talked about wave height, it could conserve its energy while still losing it, I can’t find any good info on the effect of shallow to deep water though, so who knows whether anyone is right here. I do agree that the wave action has its importance, especially with other posters showing the speed of retreat in the laptev, but I think we will breach usual deep water bathymetry barriers this season and with the energy accumulated, it is important to understand how the coming storms would behave under this open water, could anyone contribute?
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 01:45:56 AM by ajouis »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2971 on: July 17, 2020, 01:17:17 AM »
Please delete all but the last 1 or 2 in a quote chain.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2972 on: July 17, 2020, 01:27:52 AM »
I split the Hycom month animation of thickness and this is three weeks ago, today, and forecast in a week.
The melt last three weeks has been phenomenal. Maybe of even more concerns is the rapad rotation of the pack, looks at risk of clearing out the entire atlantic front above greenland back to the lomonosov from lincoln to the pole. And unravelling the thickest ice from CAA to the pole into dispersed zombie floes in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS.
You accidentally posted one image twice

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2973 on: July 17, 2020, 02:50:22 AM »
Melt pond drainage happens every year but bottom melting is much stronger in some regions than others so the rate of progression is not the same in different parts of the Arctic. Bottom melting is impressive in the Beaufort sea. Mush does not last long there.

Given that this year is in a strong first place for lowest extent for the date, this rate of melting does not take place every year. A key unanswered question is how much thinning has taken place in the central Arctic and how much heat has built up under the ice to continue bottom melting after the melt ponds drain. One might surmise that more cloud free hours of insolation would have led to more heat gain under the ice.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2974 on: July 17, 2020, 03:01:35 AM »


ANYWAYS THE GIF ANIMATION BELOW I AM POSTING  IN RESPONSE TO THE CROWD THAT THINKS THE BASIN  ICE IS COMPACTED AND THAT WILL HELP PREVENT A WIDESPREAD COLLAPSE. 

The Wrangel ice melted much easier because it is near the edge.  This only applies to a small portion of the central basin.


The image below it is from today.  Its looking at the far Northern  Laptev, the central basin including the pole, the Atlantic edge, and the far Northwest ESS.

It has been slightly darkened with  contrast beefed up to highlight regions where the ice appears darker than ice around  it. 

You may be wondering  what is causing that.

Its  not SOOT or DUST

it's not ALGAE  or PHOTOPLANKTON

In this instance it's just ice that has drained and is very thin.   Probably  between 0.2 and 0.5M thick. 


THIS THIN ICE STARTS TO APPEAR  DARKER AND DARKER BECAUSE THE OCEAN BELOW IS STARTING TO VISIBLY  APPEAR THROUGH THE ICE TO THE SAT SCANNER.


Thanks to the consistent winds  and ice around the super thin ice that is still 0.5-1.25M(thicker the further South towards North Canada) the ice is steadily melting in place.  Since winds have been long fetch relative motion...

BASICALLY THE ENTIRE PACK HAS BEEN  MOBILE MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE  DIRECTION.

This has eliminated almost all turbulence.  So for now we are going to see these  darkest areas start to melt out completely and large blotches of open water appear.   

That happened in the ESS except it was behind the clouds. 

The Atlantic /laptev side just  saw the entire ice pack shrink IN A HUGE WAY towards the NA coast.

Since winds are steady blowing that way what's happening is the Ice edge on the Siberian  side has pushed North while ice inside the pack has simultaneously  melted out.

This is why the pack has shrunk without the appearance  of large holes.


Looking at the current situation and the forecast.   Its likely we are about to see some big time holes start to open up inside the pack thanks to the insane insitu melt the last 15-20 days.

God speed

So I speculate that the ice thickness may be being maintained due to ice floes stacking on top of each other as they are compacted, and you demand some that I prove it with evidence, even though it was only speculation.

Now you state your theory as fact complete with caplocks, but provide no actual evidence to support your theory that this darker ice is ultra thin, and not just due to algae.

In my experience darker ice has more water on it.  And flat ice can hold more water on it than rough ice.  And ice could get rough when it is compacted and crumpled up.  And I notice that much of the ice that we could expect to be thicker towards greenland looks nice and uniform, except that it is crisscrossed by white lines that look a bit like lines.  Whereas ice on the Russian side is rather uneven in tone with few well defined lines.  There are areas that look brighter and white that look very much like they could be formed as crumple zones in thinner ice, and also a line of much whiter ice just near the edge in the Laptev which could be the very thin ice edge crumpling under the pressure of wind and waves.

Perhaps the darker ice is the thicker ice that has resisted crumpling, and so has maintained a level flat surface that holds surface melt water better.

The crowd that talk about the the central basin compactness do realise that there is substantial loss of thickness, and don't expect the melt to just stop dead in its tracks when it reaches the central basin.  (At least I don't, I'm only guessing for other members of the crowd).  But we do think it is a factor that will have an impact on the final result and cannot be ignored.  Currently 2020 has a massive lead on all other years.  I now expect a massive slowdown as the central pack compactness has its impact and weather switches to cooler and cloudier.  This slowdown will mean that the melt will fall back towards the pack, but it will require a lot of cool and cloudy weather now to avoid a record year in my opinion.  But I do think its unlikely that we will break the 2012 record by a large amount.  Although if conditions turn sunny again after a low pressure disrupts the compactness of the central basin then who knows what might be possible.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 03:07:05 AM by Michael Hauber »
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2975 on: July 17, 2020, 03:08:46 AM »
Well it looks likely this high is finally breaking down but not without one more heat blast which will hit the ESS, difference now, there will be much higher temperatures at sea level so I suspect those SSTS will rocket upwards there.

Question now, just how much low pressure will we see and what impacts that will have on the ice? Even if extent slows down, I think it be worse for the ice long term if it slows right down as that mean there is too much ice spread and the CAB ice weakens I would of thought. So maybe a gradual slow down would be better.

Whilst the ice looks more compact, i do worry we probably have too much open water and warm open water at that in the Laptev sea. Any high SSTS could overpower any compact ice and melt it in anycase just like it did in 2019.

I still stand by though, a disperse ice pack shows more damage for ice extent in the 2nd half's of melt season than a compact one but the cavet is the warm SSTS.

Speaking of dispersion, we are seeing some of that in the Beaufort now. There does seem to be quite a bit of large ice floes there however and the weather is still trying it's best to be uneventful there but it's one to watch though and see how it develops.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2976 on: July 17, 2020, 03:12:28 AM »
The exceptionally strong high pressure system will end within a few days. Weather models vary on when exactly that will happen.

The next thing to watch, as others have said, is will we see a strong low pressure system replace it.

When the low takes over, extent losses will slow down because of dispersion. However, at that point mechanical breakup and upwelling warm salty water has the potential to decimate the remaining ice.

It can not be argued that we have seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days. The ice is basically a lot of melty slush right now. A close look at worldview shows that even at the North Pole the ice is full of melt ponds and holes.

If the transition to low pressure is strong, like some predict, the ice is going to get destroyed! But, even if we have a transition to a weak low and favorable conditions for ice retention, the damage has been done.

Each year the ice gets thinner and thinner.  One good year like last winter can only thicken the ice a small amount. Thermodynamics controls that. I don’t know what will happen in the next few weeks, but I’m anxiously awaiting the results!

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2977 on: July 17, 2020, 03:22:59 AM »
I think it needs to be pointed out here...

Average loss over the last 5 years between the current date and minimum works out to approximately 3.58 million km2.

That gives us a September minimum of approximately 3.4 million km2.

Emphasizing... With *Average* melt. Average.

Even the lowest of the last 20-odd (2014) would put us in spitting distance of 2nd-4th.

2nd lowest minimum is almost a certainty at this point.

If we see melt like 2012, we're looking at a September minimum of 2.5 million km2 +/- pocket change.

And quite conviniently, right after OffTheGrid mentions that (my bold):

I split the Hycom month animation of thickness and this is three weeks ago, today, and forecast in a week.
The melt last three weeks has been phenomenal. ...

Now, JDallen, here's my point: when we see phenomenal melt rates for weeks on end at the peak of a melt season - we should not anyhow expect "average loss" further into the season. It is very simple: phenomenal melt rates have consequences into nearest future. When you have them, it means you just got a ton of energy into the system - this or that way, does not matter (for this particular point i am making here). Then and only then phenomenal melt rates can actually occur.

But this same exceptional amount of energy which entered near-surface layer in Arctic during recent weeks - way above average, - is not going to "poof" right tomorrow. Phenomenal melt rates means equally phenomenal SSTs, phenomenal albedo drops, phenomenally high water heat content near surface. And those will continue to influence further melt for weeks and even months ahead, phenomenally much.

Granted, weather is always fluctuating and there is some small chance that with _phenomenally_ melt-halting weather further on, we'd indeed end up with "Average loss over the last 5 years between the current date and minimum". But it's one very small chance. With average weather, we should expect at least half-phenomenal further ice loss during this season. Not "average" at all.

It is almost a certainty, thus, that 2020 will be the new lowest of all time. To me, the only question is not "if" 2020 will beat 2012; the only question is by how much.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2978 on: July 17, 2020, 03:28:39 AM »
Great view of Lincoln Sea from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php

But what a broken up mess. Tell me I'm wrong, but I remember from last year great arches spanning the entrance to the Nares Strait holding back the ice from entering the strait.
What I find interesting over the last week is that very little of the Lincoln sea ice is actually moving in a southerly direction at all - the whole sea seems to be heading due west to ride above Ellesmere including all the ice on the NE shore of Ellesmere. The only section of the Lincoln that is heading southerly is about a 35 KM by 20 KM section of ruble and flows on the very coast of NW Greenland, and this is not replenishing because the crack NE of Greenland is moving westward.

This would appear to be the effect of the GAAC. Until the Artic enters a new weather pattern, I wonder if the Nares or the CAA will be an export route.

Once the winds become even neutral the ice will meander back to the coast.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2979 on: July 17, 2020, 03:49:33 AM »
So I speculate that the ice thickness may be being maintained due to ice floes stacking on top of each other as they are compacted...

As I replied to you earlier, I see no reason that ice shoves could form over open water (i.e. where no ice is anchored against the coast) during a time of melt. The force required to get one floe on top of the other, while both are moving due to the same weather system in the same general direction would be tremendous. As you yourself said, the ice melts from the edges... the edges of floes during melt season are compromised. I have never seen ice shoves form outside of freeze events, and usually when the temperature is significantly below zero.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2980 on: July 17, 2020, 03:50:20 AM »
I didn't realize the magnitude of differences from 2012. As has been the case throughout the season, it's the Beaufort against the whole Arctic.

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2981 on: July 17, 2020, 03:52:53 AM »
It can not be argued that we have (not) seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days.

I added the word "not" that I think you meant to put in there.

I don't think it's very scientific to try and draw boundaries around what can and can not be argued. Clearly there is visible and undeniable evidence supporting the massive extent declines being reported by JAXA. The 2D shrinkage is undeniable.

But there is room for reasonable people to question how much of that shrinkage is due to melting and how much is due to relocation.

There is a lot of evidence which will be forthcoming in the next two months which will shed more light on what has transpired during the GAAC. There isn't any reason to label less common perspectives such as those implied by Nico Sun (and his depiction of a negative current melting energy anomaly) as being invalid at this moment. The likelihood of proof is just around the corner.

I certainly think its fair to criticize and dissect the logic of unpopular arguments, but we should not make declarations that characterize arguments which have yet to be made before the proof. At this point, I don't see proof which enables us to reasonably quantify how much of the extent reduction is due to ice relocation.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 03:58:25 AM by Phoenix »

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2982 on: July 17, 2020, 03:55:16 AM »
So I speculate that the ice thickness may be being maintained due to ice floes stacking on top of each other as they are compacted...

As I replied to you earlier, I see no reason that ice shoves could form over open water (i.e. where no ice is anchored against the coast) during a time of melt. The force required to get one floe on top of the other, while both are moving due to the same weather system in the same general direction would be tremendous. As you yourself said, the ice melts from the edges... the edges of floes during melt season are compromised. I have never seen ice shoves form outside of freeze events, and usually when the temperature is significantly below zero.
While my gut feeling is that floes are too weak to withstand stacking at this time, I recommend reading this recent excerpt from the Mosaic mission, testimony of the tremendous forces resulting from the crazy movement and compaction going on in the CAB in the last few days.

Click to zoom.


Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2983 on: July 17, 2020, 04:07:34 AM »
It can not be argued that we have (not) seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days.

I added the word "not" that I think you meant to put in there.

I don't think it's very scientific to try and draw boundaries around what can and can not be argued. Clearly there is visible and undeniable evidence supporting the massive extent declines being reported by JAXA. The 2D shrinkage is undeniable.

But there is room for reasonable people to question how much of that shrinkage is due to melting and how much is due to relocation.

There is a lot of evidence which will be forthcoming in the next two months which will shed more light on what has transpired during the GAAC. There isn't any reason to label less common perspectives such as those implied by Nico Sun (and his depiction of a negative current melting energy anomaly) as being invalid at this moment. The likelihood of proof is just around the corner.

I certainly think its fair to criticize and dissect the logic of unpopular arguments, but we should not make declarations that characterize arguments which have yet to be made before the proof. At this point, I don't see proof which enables us to reasonably quantify how much of the extent reduction is due to ice relocation.

Phoenix, please do not engage with me anymore.

Don’t tell me what I meant to say!

The mods let you stay and I won’t question their judgement. But don’t engage with me.  I feel like Shared Humanity right now and maybe I will just delete my account because these forums are too frustrating to participate in anymore.

<Softened the tone. And Please don't leave. O>
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 05:34:47 AM by oren »

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2984 on: July 17, 2020, 04:36:55 AM »
Phoenix, please do not engage with me anymore.

Don’t tell me what I meant to say!

The mods let you stay and I won’t question their judgement. But don’t engage with me.  I feel like Shared Humanity right now and maybe I will just delete my account because these forums are too frustrating to participate in anymore.

At this point all of my posts are reviewed and approved by a moderator before they appear. Let's try to just stick to the substance.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 05:35:36 AM by oren »

ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2985 on: July 17, 2020, 04:46:33 AM »
It can not be argued that we have (not) seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days.

I added the word "not" that I think you meant to put in there.

I don't think it's very scientific to try and draw boundaries around what can and can not be argued. Clearly there is visible and undeniable evidence supporting the massive extent declines being reported by JAXA. The 2D shrinkage is undeniable.

But there is room for reasonable people to question how much of that shrinkage is due to melting and how much is due to relocation.

There is a lot of evidence which will be forthcoming in the next two months which will shed more light on what has transpired during the GAAC. There isn't any reason to label less common perspectives such as those implied by Nico Sun (and his depiction of a negative current melting energy anomaly) as being invalid at this moment. The likelihood of proof is just around the corner.

I certainly think its fair to criticize and dissect the logic of unpopular arguments, but we should not make declarations that characterize arguments which have yet to be made before the proof. At this point, I don't see proof which enables us to reasonably quantify how much of the extent reduction is due to ice relocation.
When worldview, bremen concentration maps, hycom and the july piomas agree on the impact of the gaac on melt it cannot be argued, the fact that ess concentration is dropping while in a compaction pattern says it all. Furthermore, denying it would be like denying thermodynamics, temperatures have been reliably above the ice melting point, both air and sst, the insolation is high unabated by the usual clouds and albedo is low. Denying physical phenomenons is also the m. o. of climate change deniers, but beyond that it is just plain wrong, especially with the relative wealth of information provided here
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2986 on: July 17, 2020, 05:03:17 AM »
OH MY GOD. So let me get this straight

The 50+ mile wide strips of 4M+ ice that PIOMAS has incorrectly modeled going back to Spring have maintained themselves through some process where the broken up chunks of one to two meter ice are somehow being flung/thrusted on top of each other over and area that's like 50 to 100 miles wide and 5 times as long?????!

What the ???!


Not to forget the fact that thing entire region has been hit WITHOUT PAUSE by relentless heat and sun.  Phoenix keeps reiterating that temps are EDGIBNG CLOSER TO 0C in GFS land.

TWO THINGS....

1.  The MELTING POINT OF SEA ICE IS ROUGHLY -1.5C TO -1.8C. 

SO SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE 0C ARE ROUGHLY 2C ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT OF THE SEA ICE GOING BACK ALMOST A MONTH. 

SO A MONTH OF RELENTLESS WARMTH AND LOTS OF SUN AND... SOMEWHERE AROUND 6-10 DAYS OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS PUSHING 5-15C TEMPS OVER THE LINCOLN SEA WHICH SAW THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CAB TURN INTO A GIANT MELT LAKE THAT APPEARED ON AMSR2 AS 50-70 PERCENT CONCENTRATION OF ICE UNTIL IT SUBSEQUENTLY DRAINED SHORTLY AFTER.

AND since they drained temperatures have remained well above freezing.

ALBEDO HAS REMAINED VERY LOW. 

THE ICE SURFACE RESEMBLES WET BARE ICE WITH MELT PONDS EVERYWHERE.

THE MODIS REPRESENTATION SHOWS THIS AREA OF UNPRECEDENTED 4M THICK ICE THAT STACKS ONTO ITSELF OVER A REGION THAT IS ROUGHLY 50-100 MILES WIDE AND 5X AS LONG AS BEING TOTALLY SMASHED INTO SMALL, VERY SMALL, AND TO SMALL TO SEE ON MODIS.

OH AND EVEN THO THE WIND HAS BEEN UNIFORM OVER THESE REGIONS NOW VISIBLY LARGE FETCHES OF OPEN WATER.  THAT CONTAINS NO ICE ARE NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS GOLDILOCKS ZONE.

NOT TO FORGET A HUGE 40 MILE WIDE AREA OF OPEN WATER BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE GOLDILOCKS FIELD OF DESTROYED ICE FLOES.

THIS SWATH OF OPEN WATER IS SO BIG AND DEVOID OF ICE THAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE SCANS ARE PICKING UP 1-2 DEGREES C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER UNPRECEDENTED PART OF THIS MELT SEASON.





TWO MORE POINTS BEFORE I END MY RENT AND APOLOGIZE FOR BEING CONDESCENDING BUT I JUST CANNOT TAKE THIS NONSENSE I COME HERE SO A BUNCH OF REALLY SMART GUYS CAN GET TOGETHER AND TRACK AN UNPRESIDENTED CLIMATE EVENT TOGETHER.  A CAMARADERIE THAT I THOUGHT WAS GROUNDED IN THE PURSUIT OF FACTUAL SCIENCE AND EVIDENCE.  AND YET HERE WE ARE STANDING ON THE SHORES OF THE THINGS WE HAVE NEVER SEEN IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY ON THIS PLANET. 

AND YET THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS OF COURSE HAS TO BE S*** ON BY PEOPLE WHO JUST CAN'T COME TO GRIPS WITH REALITY.

THIS SHOW STOPPING B******* JUST MAKES PEOPLE LIKE ME AND MANY OTHERS JUST STOP TALKING AND JUST START TRACKING IT BY MYSELF.

@CSNAVY ABOVE LAID OUT VERY WELL. EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ISSUE OF SEA ICE AREA AND YET WE HAVE ENDLESS DISCUSSION ABOUT SOME SLOW DOWN IN THIS UNPRECEDENTED EVENT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED AT ALL.  THERE IS ZERO EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING AND YET IT'S DOMINATING CONVERSATION.


I ALSO WANT TO ADD TWO MORE THINGS PIOMAS IS WRONG.

CRYOSAT IS REAL LIFE MEASUREMENTS.  AND YET IT'S STILL BEING IGNORED FOR SOMETHING THAT IS CLEARLY WRONG.

WHICH IS ONLY BECAUSE OF AGENDA-DRIVEN IDEOLOGY THAT UNDERMINES THE SCIENTIFIC TRUTH THAT SHOULD BE PARAMOUNT HERE.


AND LAST I WOULD THINK THAT IT'S COMMON SENSE THE IDEA OF WEIGHT DISPLACEMENT. 

AND HOW MUCH FORCE WOULD BE NEEDED TO DISPLACE ICE HEAVY ICE ON TOP OF ITSELF OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA WHEN THE ACTUAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FROM BELOW IN FROM ABOVE PROBABLY COVERS ABOUT 1% OF THE ENERGY REQUIRED TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN...

AND THE FORCE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE AND BELOW IS ALMOST EQUAL EVERYWHERE AND THIS REGION AGAIN SAYING THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE.

ALL RIGHT I'M DONE YOU GUYS ENJOY THIS NONSENSE

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2987 on: July 17, 2020, 05:38:15 AM »
THERE IS ZERO EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING AND YET IT'S DOMINATING CONVERSATION.

Seems like that's been the trend relatively often, yet all this talk of a slowdown didn't change the fact that JAXA just posted another century and a half loss today. 6.82M km^2 now and dropping. I'm all for metered, rational observation of science, but sometimes we have to call a spade a spade, and this melt season has been one for the books so far. I guess we will all see where the chips fall mid September onward anyways...

marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2988 on: July 17, 2020, 05:42:14 AM »

ALL RIGHT I'M DONE YOU GUYS ENJOY THIS NONSENSE

Yikes, Is Frivolous leaving? But the best/scariest part of the melt season is just coming up! I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’d much rather have Friv on this forum than the sea-lioning commenter he’s ranting about.



Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2989 on: July 17, 2020, 05:45:19 AM »
It can not be argued that we have (not) seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days.

I added the word "not" that I think you meant to put in there.

I don't think it's very scientific to try and draw boundaries around what can and can not be argued. Clearly there is visible and undeniable evidence supporting the massive extent declines being reported by JAXA. The 2D shrinkage is undeniable.

But there is room for reasonable people to question how much of that shrinkage is due to melting and how much is due to relocation.

There is a lot of evidence which will be forthcoming in the next two months which will shed more light on what has transpired during the GAAC. There isn't any reason to label less common perspectives such as those implied by Nico Sun (and his depiction of a negative current melting energy anomaly) as being invalid at this moment. The likelihood of proof is just around the corner.

I certainly think its fair to criticize and dissect the logic of unpopular arguments, but we should not make declarations that characterize arguments which have yet to be made before the proof. At this point, I don't see proof which enables us to reasonably quantify how much of the extent reduction is due to ice relocation.
When worldview, bremen concentration maps, hycom and the july piomas agree on the impact of the gaac on melt it cannot be argued, the fact that ess concentration is dropping while in a compaction pattern says it all. Furthermore, denying it would be like denying thermodynamics, temperatures have been reliably above the ice melting point, both air and sst, the insolation is high unabated by the usual clouds and albedo is low. Denying physical phenomenons is also the m. o. of climate change deniers, but beyond that it is just plain wrong, especially with the relative wealth of information provided here


It's amazing it's truly amazing.  We're trying to have an adult conversation centered around dozens+ pieces of scientific data that is aquired through dozens+ pieces of UNBELIEVABLY ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY THAT HAS BEEN TESTED TO NEAR PINPOINT ACCURACY BY THE FINEST SCIENTIFIC MIND OF OUR GENERATION AND THE PREVIOUS TWO.

THIS TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN TESTED IN THE REAL WORLD FOR DECADE WEATHER IT'S NEW OR OLD IT IS ALL RELIABLE TO NEARLY 100% RELIABILITY.

WE HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT IT INTERPRETATION AND IN REAL TIME WE CAN PUT IT INTO SCIENTIFIC FACT.


AND YET THIS PRECIOUS FORUM.. WHICH IS A LAST REFUGE... The LAST SANCTUARY WHERE THOUSANDS OF CURIOUS INTELLIGENT WELL UNDERSTOOD AND JOE'S WILLING TO LEARN MINDS OF PROFESSIONALS & AMATURES ALIKE CENTERED AROUND THE BUBBLE OF CLIMATOLOGY METEOROLOGY, GLACIOLOGY, PHYSICAL SCIENCE, PHYSICS, CHEMISTRY, BIOLOGY, ADVANCE MATHEMATICS, CALCULUS, GEOMETRY, ALGORITHMIC MODELING, ALGORITHMIC DATA INTERPRETATION, AND ON AND ON AND ON.. 






AND YET DISSENT RAINS DOWN ONTO THE ASGARD OF ARCTIC SCIENTIFIC GROUP THINK....

TRYING TO WEDGE ITS WAY DEEP INTO THE ESTABLISHED, INFINITLY TESTED WITH EVERY RELIABLE WAY OF UNDERSTANDING THE ARCTIC BIOSPHERE AND IN PARTICULAR IN THIS DISCUSSION MORE SPECIFICALLY THE SEA ICE.





SO YES I AM VERY TRIGGERED WHEN I COME TO THIS SANCTUARY TO READ THE THOUGHTS OF ALL THESE BRILLIANT PEOPLE AND AND INDULGE MYSELF AS DEEP AS I CAN INTO THE DOPAMINIC EXCITEMENT OF NOT ONLY FOLLOWING THE UNPRECEDENTED IN REAL TIME BUT SHARING AND THAT EXPERIENCE WITH THOUSANDS OF BRILLIANT PEOPLE. 


THAT IS CAPPED OFF WITH THE STEADY HIT OF B
THE SEROTONIN SATISFACTION  OF LIVING THIS HISTORICAL REAL TIME TRACKING AND UNDERSTANDING OF AN EVENT.. 


WHICH IS THE FACE...

THE EPITOME...


THE BEAUTIFUL ANOMOLOUS REAL TIME EXPLANATION, THE HOLLYWOOD BLOCKBUSTER THAT IS ONLY SENTIENT SPECIES THE EVER WALK THIS PLANET, AN APEX PREDITOR WHO RULES BE WORLD WITH OVERWHELMING VIOLENCE....

WHILE ALSO DEMONSTRATING THE ABILITY TO ASCEND DISPLAYING UNPARALLELED...

COMPASSION
LOVE
EXPOTENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH...

THE SPECIES OF PHYSICALLY WEAK UPRIGHT WALKING ADVANCED APES UNIQUELY EXISTING AS AN ALONE SINGLE CHILD OF THE HOMINIDS....

YET CARRYING SOME OF THE FABRIC OF ITS NEANDERTHAL SIBLINGS AND DISTANT COUSINS WHO BRAVELY NAVIGATED THE PATH TOWARDS HUMAN ENLIGHTMENT THAT WE ALL GET TO ENJOY...

AND YET WE ARE DESTROYING IT ALL WHILE EXPOTENTIALLY ASCENDING....


AND YET HERE WE ARE:


HAVING TO ACCEPT THAT....

 HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IF NOT MILLIONS OF TONS OF ICE HAVE FOUND THE FORCE CAPABLE OF MOVING MILLIONS OF TONS OF ICE OUT OF OCEAN AND ON TOP OF OTHER ICE THAT IS LITERALLY SITTING 1.5-3 METERS AT ITS SURFACE ABOVE THE CLEARING HEIGHT OF THE ADJACENT ICE THAT IS APPARENTLY...

FINDING ITS INNER MICHAEL JORDON...


:)
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2990 on: July 17, 2020, 05:47:38 AM »

ALL RIGHT I'M DONE YOU GUYS ENJOY THIS NONSENSE

Yikes, Is Frivolous leaving? But the best/scariest part of the melt season is just coming up! I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’d much rather have Friv on this forum than the sea-lioning commenter he’s ranting about.

Not leaving.

I don't want anyone else to leave. Including Phoenix.

I WANT EVERYONE TO EXIST HERE WITH INTEGRITY AND GENUINITY.

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IS THE CASE WITH THESE NONSENSICAL  TALKING POINTS THAT ARE NOT BACKED WITH FACT OR DATA AT ALL.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2991 on: July 17, 2020, 05:50:46 AM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2992 on: July 17, 2020, 05:57:15 AM »
<snip>
That gives us a September minimum of approximately 3.4 million km2.
<snip>
<snip>
Now, JDallen, here's my point: when we see phenomenal melt rates for weeks on end at the peak of a melt season - we should not anyhow expect "average loss" further into the season.
<snip>
But this same exceptional amount of energy which entered near-surface layer in Arctic during recent weeks - way above average...<snip>...And those will continue to influence further melt for weeks and even months ahead, phenomenally much.
<snip>
It is almost a certainty, thus, that 2020 will be the new lowest of all time. To me, the only question is not "if" 2020 will beat 2012; the only question is by how much.
I am generally in agreement with your analysis.  My only reservation is the weather, and perhaps, that comes from the vain hope like many of the last 8 years, the ice will get a late season reprieve from the weather.

As you so succinctly point out, my hope may well be in vain.
This space for Rent.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2993 on: July 17, 2020, 05:58:11 AM »
Well... some of the damage is already manifesting right now.  I am amazed anew every day.


nanning

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2994 on: July 17, 2020, 05:58:58 AM »
Thank you for all your insights and expertise Friv. Your last posts were interesting to read.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2995 on: July 17, 2020, 05:59:38 AM »
The exceptionally strong high pressure system will end within a few days. Weather models vary on when exactly that will happen.

The next thing to watch, as others have said, is will we see a strong low pressure system replace it.

When the low takes over, extent losses will slow down because of dispersion. However, at that point mechanical breakup and upwelling warm salty water has the potential to decimate the remaining ice.

It can not be argued that we have seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days. The ice is basically a lot of melty slush right now. A close look at worldview shows that even at the North Pole the ice is full of melt ponds and holes.

If the transition to low pressure is strong, like some predict, the ice is going to get destroyed! But, even if we have a transition to a weak low and favorable conditions for ice retention, the damage has been done.

Each year the ice gets thinner and thinner.  One good year like last winter can only thicken the ice a small amount. Thermodynamics controls that. I don’t know what will happen in the next few weeks, but I’m anxiously awaiting the results!

To your point there is a possible tipping point looming from which Arctic Sea Ice may have difficulty recovering and I am interested in getting others opinions on the risk as we are seeing a lot of encroachment on the CAB this year.  It is well appreciated that low salinity in ASW protects the sea ice from the considerable ice destroying potential of saltier and warmer Atlantic Water passing below.  However the salinity of Arctic Surface Water, ASW, is not equal everywhere and I have seen data to suggest that unlike the Beaufort, over the Amundsen Basin, ASW is only about one part per thousand less saline than Atlantic Water.  I would be interested to see if others doing their own vetting come up with a similar figure.

It may be that the CAB never gets uncovered and the waters there are not subject to wave action, GACs or GAACs or whatever other water column mixing phenomena that are possible to the same degree as other parts of the arctic so it has never mattered that the halocline in the CAB is weakly differentiated till now. 
 
My concern is that if such a slight differentiation in salinity is the only thing protecting the CAB from warmer waters below, encroachment into the deep basins on the Atlantic side of the Arctic this year continues, and then we get a GAC near the minimum when the ice is not there over parts of the CAB to prevent mixing, will the halocline break down and then not quickly reform in winter due to the near equivalence in salinity in the ASW and AW, limiting ice formation in winter and triggering some sort of CAB accelerated death spiral of ever increasing ASW / Atlantic Water mixing year on year.  Perhaps I am reading too much into this?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2996 on: July 17, 2020, 06:04:00 AM »
Thank you Oren. I started some of this shit tonight because of someone that I firmly believe is trying to ruin these forums.

I know you and the other mods have a very hard job and you are doing your best to be fair and keep these forums great. But, I have been on the Internet since the very beginning, and I know a troll when I see one.

If you want to give him a voice, I understand.  But that might mean you lose people like me who don’t want to constantly fight climate deniers in disguise.

Anyway, thank you again for your hard work! And, thank you to the other mods too!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2997 on: July 17, 2020, 06:13:30 AM »
will the halocline break down and then not quickly reform in winter due to the near equivalence in salinity in the ASW and AW, limiting ice formation in winter and triggering some sort of CAB accelerated death spiral of ever increasing ASW / Atlantic Water mixing year on year.  Perhaps I am reading too much into this?

I have seen this theory proposed in a similar fashion multiple times now, and I would hypothesize that there is at least some likely degree of accuracy to it. I think the position and bathymetry of the Amundsen Basin, combined with the cover protection of the halocline there, as well as the safe haven the north edge of the CAA, has previously provided likely contributes to the higher stability and insulation of the ice from multiple sides in the American half of the CAB. Combined increasing prominence of the mega crack and Atlantification, as well as systems such as this GAAC and attacks from the Barents and Laptev open up many of these previously unavailable routes of multidimensional erosion. I would think at some point a cascade down to a lower "new normal" is quite possible since the influx of energy into the CAB is not just 2D anymore.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2998 on: July 17, 2020, 06:15:14 AM »
My bad on implying I would walk away from the forum over what I take as deliberate ignorance or you could call it deliberate misdirection.

I only meant that I'm not going to engage in the nonsense that seems to seep out of ideology being crushed


Anyways...


From the other thread.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 16th, 2020:
     6,820,565 km2, a century drop of -145,352 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Now 420,000km2 below #2 and roughly 600,000km2 below the average of the worst years.

Truly amazing.


The BIG QUESTION IS BECOMING....

HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CAB MELTS OUT THIS SUMMER??
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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2999 on: July 17, 2020, 06:40:14 AM »
0z GFS at the 500mb level showing deepening over the CAB as the high clears starting about 4 days out, and by hour 156 it reaches the mid 980s. I'm quite interested to see what the next day or two of modelling runs continue to project during the supposed beginning breakdown of the high and intrusion of the low