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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3000 on: July 17, 2020, 06:43:36 AM »
0z GFS at the 500mb level showing deepening over the CAB as the high clears starting about 4 days out, and by hour 156 it reaches the mid 980s. I'm quite interested to see what the next day or two of modelling runs continue to project during the supposed beginning breakdown of the high and intrusion of the low


I would disregard the GFS, it is now far inferior to the EURO and much more inconsistent in its output due to inferior modeling IMO.

That is not to say such a solution will not happen, but EURO is 100X > GFS.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3001 on: July 17, 2020, 06:43:55 AM »
WOW the changes on the Breman concentration graphics are getting scary.

Not as bad as 2012 on the Pacific side.

Maybe it's knowing how much heat has hit the arctic basin.

You can visibly see where the fog was yesterday that ran across the far Southern CAB.

Thanks to clearing and the ice quickly thinning all over CONCENTRATION is dropping all over as well.


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I admit the thought that 2020 might end up free falling past 2012 and settling somewhere between 2-2.5 million km2 on jaxa with ice volume about 60-70 percent of 2012s volume min is starting to become a real possible outcome.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3002 on: July 17, 2020, 06:49:59 AM »
You’d somehow expect a slowdown in the numbers because there is less and less ice available to melt. It’s start that even while more and more regional seas reach (near) zero the numbers stay this high

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3003 on: July 17, 2020, 06:50:45 AM »
I think the three remaining question marks for this season, besides the obvious unknown weather, are:
* As Friv asks - How much of the CAB ice reaches final melt-out? My gut feeling says this will happen on a wide scale. The thickness lost during the GAAC is way higher than any possible winter advantage the CAB may have had. Besides  massive ice movement during Feb-Mar resulted in the replacement of a lot of ice near the pole and Greenland with FYI that came from the Laptev area. This FYI can only take so much before it becomes water.
* Will the CAA break open early enough to allow transport and export of the rather thick ice there? Considering the constant sun and high temperatures experienced by the CAA in the past month or more, my gut feeling says this will happen, and perhaps even enable export of thick ice from the CAB towards the end of the melting season. Currently the breakup in the main channel is faster than the cold years and slower than the very warm years (2011, 2012, 2015, 2016), but considering the amount of thickness that must have been lost I suspect the speed will be enough to carry it to completion on time.
* Will the Beaufort ice succumb to the crazy melting season around it and crash? Due to abnormal transport patterns this year, sea ice area and modelled volume have been consistently high. However, the ice does not look so good and at some point import from the CAB could shrink considerably. In addition, any movement by the Beaufort ice will result in extreme damage due to expected open water all around. Again, my gut feeling is the Beaufort cannot survive on its own with the mayhem going on.

Bonus question - will the weather produce some ice-preserving miracle? Is it even possible at this stage, with so much bottom melt already secured, and only that much thickness remaining? Perhaps the best thing the weather can achieve is an early minimum.

Points which I find unquestionable:
* Laptev is dead and will pursue into the CAB, the only question is how deep.
* ESS ice will soon disappear completely, before the end of the month. It looks terrible on Worldview.
* Chukchi will reach zero in the first half of Aug, despite being fed by the Beaufort.
* Greenland Sea which has been running cold and swollen with ice will lose lots of area and volume in August, as it does every year.
* All the rest (Kara, Barents, Baffin, Hudson) should reach zero during July.

i will go publicly here to predict a record low PIOMAS volume this year. Admittedly it's just a model with its own limitations, but I find it hard to believe that the relentless unprecedented insolation we have seen over huge parts of the CAB will go unnoticed. I have never seen so many clear days on Worldview during peak insolation.
I also expect record low area, with somewhat less certainty. GAC or no GAC, enough damage has been done that will be hard to stop in time. AS for extent, this depends on compaction during the September end-game, harder to predict.

At most, my gut predictions will turn out wrong. Good for the planet.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3004 on: July 17, 2020, 06:59:07 AM »
If we get a new low to replace the GAAC, the ice will disperse again. The question I have is how fast the ice on the edges will melt when it is moved back south into warmer waters. My guess is that the answer is unknown for the moment?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3005 on: July 17, 2020, 07:22:52 AM »
I have included four images July 7, July 16, forecast for July 23 and enlargement of July 16. You need to zoom in each one to see what is going on. Things to note their is no 15% threshold on the Hycom model so it shows thin ice until it is 100% ocean. In the forecasts it shows thin ice until the ice is melted completely out on the day of processing. The Hycom model indicates that much of the ice thicker than 2.25 meters (green yellow red) has melted below that threshold given most of that ice is bordering the CAA-Greenland crack. It is a good bet that none of it survives this summer. Not much survived last year. Probably what is most surprising is how much the CAA part of the Crack opens up. With Friv's recent explanation maybe not that surprising. It shows the Greenland portion of the crack closing due to export. 

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3006 on: July 17, 2020, 07:25:28 AM »

While my gut feeling is that floes are too weak to withstand stacking at this time, I recommend reading this recent excerpt from the Mosaic mission, testimony of the tremendous forces resulting from the crazy movement and compaction going on in the CAB in the last few days.

Click to zoom.


My thinking is that if there is thousands of kilometers of ice being forced into each other from different directions then something is going to give.  Perhaps floes don't get stack on top of each other.  Especially floes large enough to be visible in MODIS scale, i.e. 100s of meters across, that does seem quite unlikely.  But perhaps pieces can  break of the edge and tilt.  The ice might be generally 1 meter thick and some pieces 2 meters wide could break of the edge, tilt 90 degree and then you have a small piece of ice that is 2 meters thick, and the forces that are trying to push all the ice together have been relieved just that little bit.  And the idea of an ice shove - its not ice floes stacking on each other but ice ground up into lots of jagged chunks that pile up thicker than the sheet they came from.  I would be surprised if something like this doesn't happen at least occasionally on a small scale.  Whether it happens on a big enough scale to make a difference?  That is speculation and I'd love to have some definite data one way or the other.  That picture from the ship looks pretty flat, as does every other picture I can recall seeing.  If there was stacking/crumpling/tilting/shoving going on there would be jagged edges.  Maybe the boats avoid these areas.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3007 on: July 17, 2020, 07:38:30 AM »
I have seen such pieces sticking out and being stood up on the O-Buoy movies (which I've recently linked to again on the buoys thread), after what seemed like floe collisions. However, this does not make the ice stronger, these are small pieces and are prone to falling again, and in addition the part standing outside the water can catch the low sun easily, so I doubt this can make much difference and delay melt-out. I would expect a good defensive process requires very cold and structurally strong ice to succeed, so mid-July compaction would not do much good. On the contrary, I would expect floe edges to break and large floes to split apart during such pressures, so it is quite probable that this process actually speeds melt-out somewhat.
(Caveat - I am just an amateur here, cannot base this on actual science).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3008 on: July 17, 2020, 07:39:04 AM »
Whether a boat may soon sail across the Russian Arctic ocean coast isn't so much a question as much as whether a person could swim it without encountering ocean temperature near fridge temp. We seem to be roughly 2 months ahead of roughly 2 decades ago in annual extent minimums, rapidly approaching 2001. It is not comforting warmth. The pupil in the eye gets smaller in the light.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3009 on: July 17, 2020, 07:44:44 AM »
Well... some of the damage is already manifesting right now.  I am amazed anew every day.



Regardless of what happens from here on out, 2020 has carved out a deep new low range for Arctic sea ice for part of the year and will be one for the books.  In my appraisal this means it is already a very bad year for the ice.  Keep setting new lows for different days and sooner or later one of those days will be September 16th.  We definitely will never carve out new highs for any day of the year henceforth.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3010 on: July 17, 2020, 07:56:21 AM »
July 12-16.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3011 on: July 17, 2020, 08:07:17 AM »
I have seen such pieces sticking out and being stood up on the O-Buoy movies (which I've recently linked to again on the buoys thread), after what seemed like floe collisions. However, this does not make the ice stronger, these are small pieces and are prone to falling again, and in addition the part standing outside the water can catch the low sun easily, so I doubt this can make much difference and delay melt-out. I would expect a good defensive process requires very cold and structurally strong ice to succeed, so mid-July compaction would not do much good. On the contrary, I would expect floe edges to break and large floes to split apart during such pressures, so it is quite probable that this process actually speeds melt-out somewhat.
(Caveat - I am just an amateur here, cannot base this on actual science).

I think the situation is far more complex than that. The extension above the surface of the surrounding flows would be matched by a proportional "keel" below the underside of the general level of the ice. There would be a macro effect of increasing the friction resistance to any wind and a below surface in the water. As wind and current are not normally in alignment this would exert additional forces across the ice at local and regional levels. The resulting rotational forces would tend to increase the rate of the mechanic erosion of the ice structures.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3012 on: July 17, 2020, 08:14:26 AM »
Wow. The ESS ice area has taken a massive hit in the last 5 days. This is no compaction, this is ice marching to its approaching demise.
Click to animate and click again to zoom (large gif).

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3013 on: July 17, 2020, 08:19:59 AM »
Expanding on my earlier comment about this being a very bad year already for Arctic sea ice, much ado is made every year about the minimum every year as we draw ever nearer to a BOE.  However, we are arguably actually in the time of year ( if a little past the peak ) now when low sea ice does the most damage and contributes most to global warming.  And we are record low and not by a small margin, definitely a BAD year!

romett1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3014 on: July 17, 2020, 08:21:48 AM »
00Z GFS - Slightly updated forecast. 3.5 MB file. Compared to previous (12Z) forecast now 986 is appearing.

aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3015 on: July 17, 2020, 08:25:53 AM »
As Friv pointed out, there is lifting occuring from the warm air coming from the siberian coast above the boundary layer. It is becoming a new normal, but still on the scale of weather craziness this easily reached the batshit crazy level... Soundings are the ones forecasted from IFS 12Z (cf. the picture from wetterzentrale) over ESS and Laptev, in the ridge of warm Theta'w. If the forecast verifies as it is, this means thunderstorms. This is also probably adding instability to the forecast.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 08:32:00 AM by aslan »

Tony Mcleod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3016 on: July 17, 2020, 09:01:37 AM »
...but still on the scale of weather craziness this easily reached the batshit crazy level...

The way this melt season is going I think its time to issue a tsunami watch.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3017 on: July 17, 2020, 09:03:20 AM »
July 12-16.

2019.

That is amazing.

The laptev/Atlantic side is moving in quick.

But holy SHIT the ESS/Chuckchi sectors are straight  collapsing as well.

And the most recent image that give
Huge darkening of the CAB/ESS/Chuckchi thanks to the huge area of sunny skies.

The euro is awful.  But balcks off towards a neutral pattern after day 7.

We'll see if it has merit or not.
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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3018 on: July 17, 2020, 09:04:20 AM »
July 12-16.

2019.

That is amazing.

The laptev/Atlantic side is moving in quick.

But holy SHIT the ESS/Chuckchi sectors are straight  collapsing as well.

And the most recent image that give
Huge darkening of the CAB/ESS/Chuckchi thanks to the huge area of sunny skies.

The euro is awful.  But balcks off towards a neutral pattern after day 7.

We'll see if it has merit or not.
IDK I would not call this neutral in fact I would argue it is still severely negative for the ice, in this frame the entire CAB is in between the 980s low and new 1030s HP... literally the entire pack is in motion here.



Thereafter the GAAC begins to reassert but the edges are much windier IMO...

I think we may be about to witness a "dispersion event" of the weak FYI a la what has happened in the past week or so in Hudson Bay. It will burst into floes then melt out entirely. There is a million or two KM^2 that could do this within the next two to three weeks.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3019 on: July 17, 2020, 09:17:55 AM »
Wow. The ESS ice area has taken a massive hit in the last 5 days. This is no compaction, this is ice marching to its approaching demise.

You can also see it in the animation just posted by Aluminium. The ice there is just... disappearing.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3020 on: July 17, 2020, 09:20:49 AM »
Looking at Worldview, I didnt think it would be a 100k+ day ... the fact that we still lost 145k today is truly concerning.

Edit coz the discussion is moving so fast that I didnt realize Juan had already posted the number today!

« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 09:44:19 AM by Viggy »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3021 on: July 17, 2020, 09:27:30 AM »
This "bump" at the ice edge near the Laptev does not look healthy at all today.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3022 on: July 17, 2020, 10:42:20 AM »
What is it in the East Siberian Sea? That wasn't in yesterday's photo.

Clouds? Airplane trail?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3023 on: July 17, 2020, 10:48:59 AM »
Thank you for the informative comments re. ice shoves M. Hauber, Oren and Sailaway.

My thinking is based off of limited observations and a crude understanding of Newton's 3rd law. Of course there could be minor ridging as things break and shift, but the idea of significant ridging occurring (as in the case of ice shoves, where you can get 8 metre ridges forming along shorelines or close to shore) when none of the ice is grounded seems to violate the laws of physics.

Even most of the fragmenting and stacking (or turning up at 90 degree angles) I've seen occurs when force is exerted on thin (a few inches thick) ice during freeze events. This also occurs against something grounded, as the ice continues to move in against a hard edge, forming something like a "convergent boundary" (in plate tectonics). The ice is thin (but solid) enough to break cleanly and get stacked and layered. This would be (on a smaller scale) the sort of ridges that you see in the O-Buoy movies. Note that even those in the O-Buoy movies seem to have formed prior to the melt season... also note that if the ridge is narrow and surrounded by thinner ice in areas that the thin ice melts out, the ridges will subsequently rearrange themselves in the water, having lost their support matrix.

I attached two images that show the sort of smaller ridging I'm talking about in the second paragraph (above). Obviously the arctic ice has a much longer freezing season than lake ice in the attached photos.


EDIT: I realize I have not accounted for centripetal forces at the centre of the anti-cyclone...
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 11:37:30 AM by wdmn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3024 on: July 17, 2020, 10:53:30 AM »
Regardless of what happens from here on out, 2020 has carved out a deep new low range for Arctic sea ice for part of the year and will be one for the books.  In my appraisal this means it is already a very bad year for the ice.  Keep setting new lows for different days and sooner or later one of those days will be September 16th.  We definitely will never carve out new highs for any day of the year henceforth.
Looks like, yes. Just one little detail: September 16th is not very likely for the minimum. Rather, something like September 25th...30th, more like. The reason is all the extra heat in the system likely to extend melting season a bit. The trend of it is well obvious, if one would plot a graph of 5-year running-means from 1980s all the way to 2019. It slowly extends, obviously with lots of noise outta weather effects this or that particular season. But this one, with the GAAC and remaining effect of cleaner air due to less air travel and industries much of the spring and summer due to all the quarantines around the NH - one would expect the lengthening of the season to be especially likely to be big. Which, of course, would lead to lower minimum than would "normally" be expected - more time to melt things, more things melt out in the end.

It's melting momentum, i call it. The bigger it gets, the longer it takes to exhaust its potential with everything else being "usual". And right now, it's big.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3025 on: July 17, 2020, 11:06:51 AM »
Airplane trail?

Pretty positive that's it.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3026 on: July 17, 2020, 11:11:33 AM »
Airplane trail?

Pretty positive that's it.
It is pretty telling that a lone airplane contrail is a noteworthy development in 2020 amidst the background GAAC. It's almost like the lack of planes is having a real impact. !

The huge area of greying adjacent to the Laptev bite is expanding dramatically on EOSDIS. The massive retreat is only going to continue, it seems, and momentum may actually be building, not dropping.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3027 on: July 17, 2020, 11:23:14 AM »
September 16th is not very likely for the minimum. Rather, something like September 25th...30th, more like. The reason is all the extra heat in the system likely to extend melting season a bit. The trend of it is well obvious
I humbly disagree, the latest minimum ever was I think 22nd (was that 2007?), one of the early ones was 2016 (the 8th? 9th?). Despite the heat in the system I very much doubt a minimum on 25th-30th. This will have to wait for a BOE, until then the surface water is cold and fresh where ice has recently melted, and freezing isn't hard once air temps hit a strong negative.
It's true though that a compacted ice pack refreezes later than a dispersed one, because refreeze usually starts from the center where it is cold earlier, and because open water beyond the pack's edges has time to become mixed and has higher salinity and SST. So it depends on the shape of the pack in September.

In any case, this discussion will be more appropriate later in the season as we get nearer to the minimum.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3028 on: July 17, 2020, 11:30:58 AM »
With the NSIDC data updated, we've seen a drop of 2.257 million km2 since June 30th, this is a record for that time period, with the next lowest being 2007 with 1.951 million. It's also a record in terms of the % dropped, 23.9% , much higher than the next largest, 20.2% in 2011. Incredible changes.

Will PIOMAS join in on the dramatics, I wonder?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3029 on: July 17, 2020, 11:38:47 AM »
Regardless of what happens from here on out, 2020 has carved out a deep new low range for Arctic sea ice for part of the year and will be one for the books.  In my appraisal this means it is already a very bad year for the ice.  Keep setting new lows for different days and sooner or later one of those days will be September 16th.  We definitely will never carve out new highs for any day of the year henceforth.
Looks like, yes. Just one little detail: September 16th is not very likely for the minimum. Rather, something like September 25th...30th, more like. The reason is all the extra heat in the system likely to extend melting season a bit. The trend of it is well obvious, if one would plot a graph of 5-year running-means from 1980s all the way to 2019. It slowly extends, obviously with lots of noise outta weather effects this or that particular season. But this one, with the GAAC and remaining effect of cleaner air due to less air travel and industries much of the spring and summer due to all the quarantines around the NH - one would expect the lengthening of the season to be especially likely to be big. Which, of course, would lead to lower minimum than would "normally" be expected - more time to melt things, more things melt out in the end.

It's melting momentum, i call it. The bigger it gets, the longer it takes to exhaust its potential with everything else being "usual". And right now, it's big.

For Volume, yes. Volume melt season will probably be longer because of the extra heat.

But for area, I'm not sure.
The sun is getting low in september and after the 15th/16th the polar night will start again, thus temperatures will drop; If I remember the DMI80N graphs correctly the average air temperature will drop below freezing point near the end of august; I'm not sure if north of 80 this drop of temperature will be earlier. If the upper layer cools enough we can have the refreeze of a thin new upper layer start early. Normally, that part was always frozen, so not possible to refreeze.

I wouldn't be surprised by a early, but record-low, minimum

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3030 on: July 17, 2020, 12:10:45 PM »
24 hour loop, this covers 0:11z-23:52 July 16.  Right under the center of the high pressure, an inversion likely formed allowing the ice surface to cool slightly.  The winds are not strong enough in the center to mix the warmer air down from aloft, so warm temps aloft mix down most efficiently along the periphery.  This shows up in AMSR2 data as (2nd attachment) well.  Once again, clouds can be seen creating an apparent increase in concentration elsewhere.

Click, sorry for the larger gif, I tried to reduce its size.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 12:43:34 PM by JayW »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3031 on: July 17, 2020, 12:20:14 PM »
Airplane trail?

Pretty positive that's it.
Normally there would be hundreds of them in various states of dissipation, forming a veil making it difficult to so clearly see single ones:


This would make for a fascinating research paper! A prolonged, one time event (hopefully) to get data on how directly we affect our environment (positive or negative feedback, notwithstanding)
There has been a lot of research and back and forth in this area.  Twenty years ago, aircraft vapor trails were thought to have a net cooling effect on the planet (increasing planetary albedo).  Now the consensus seems to be that they have a net warming effect (taking into account IR absorption etc).  I have never been comfortable with that latter conclusion -- but then again I have not 'done' the science.
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aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3032 on: July 17, 2020, 01:56:44 PM »
As Friv pointed out, there is lifting occuring from the warm air coming from the siberian coast above the boundary layer. It is becoming a new normal, but still on the scale of weather craziness this easily reached the batshit crazy level... Soundings are the ones forecasted from IFS 12Z (cf. the picture from wetterzentrale) over ESS and Laptev, in the ridge of warm Theta'w. If the forecast verifies as it is, this means thunderstorms. This is also probably adding instability to the forecast.

Sorry for quoting myself, but this is really going to be an important point. There is a first low east of Taymyr and Severna Zemlya, from now to H+120, going down to ~995 hPa at 72h - 96h. This first low is going to bring a massive surge of heat from Siberia, and rough sea over Laptev bite tanks to the fetch of the now open Lapev sea. But, in this massive surge of heat, isentropic lift and thunderstorms are likely, wich is going to bring cyclogenesis. This secondary low starting from the front of the first low is the one to look. Like last year and one or other years before, isentropic lift and buoyancy is going to be an important factor, thanks to the reccord warmth ongoing. And like others years, it is way more likely that models are underestimating the deepening of this low than the other way round. This can be seen comparing precipitations from the 00Z and the 06Z of GFS. The GFS 06Z is way waty worst for sea ice than the 00Z, and one reason is probably due to stronger thunderstorms and higher max rain rate forecasted in the 96H - 120H range in the front of the first low. The 00Z is reaching "only" 10 - 15mm in 06 hours -this already qualify as bath crazy for Arctic...-, the 06Z is reaching more than 30 (30 !!!) mm in 06h under the strongest cells. Don't ask why the 06Z is total mayhem for sea ice....

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3033 on: July 17, 2020, 02:06:37 PM »
Hey, Aslan! Welcome back. :)

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3034 on: July 17, 2020, 03:21:57 PM »
Please continue the Arctic flights discussion in a new thread. Point made, a good point indeed, but the details belong elsewhere.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3035 on: July 17, 2020, 03:26:09 PM »
Please continue the Arctic flights discussion in a new thread. Point made, a good point indeed, but the details belong elsewhere.

Ok, I created a new topic

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3181.0.html

Please transfer messages about planes there

Ossifrage

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3036 on: July 17, 2020, 03:28:40 PM »
What I find interesting over the last week is that very little of the Lincoln sea ice is actually moving in a southerly direction at all - the whole sea seems to be heading due west to ride above Ellesmere including all the ice on the NE shore of Ellesmere. The only section of the Lincoln that is heading southerly is about a 35 KM by 20 KM section of ruble and flows on the very coast of NW Greenland, and this is not replenishing because the crack NE of Greenland is moving westward.

This would appear to be the effect of the GAAC. Until the Artic enters a new weather pattern, I wonder if the Nares or the CAA will be an export route.

Once the winds become even neutral the ice will meander back to the coast.

I can't speak overmuch to the Lincoln Sea, but I can say that this is a real problem for the (former) ice refuge of the core CAA.

The CAA has long sheltered MYI because that ice is pushed south from the CAB into the channels and interior seas, where fast ice and limited opportunities for heat transport kept it "safe". Over a period of years, that ice is driven south through the channels, ultimately melting out in the Parry Channel or Baffin Bay. That's the essence of the garlic press.

But the garlic press is broken. The Crack we saw late last year has reopened and created an open-water boundary between Greenland/CAA (except, for now, a stretch between Borden and Axel Heiberg) and the CAB. Worse, the floes on the CAB side of that Crack are being pushed clockwise -- NOT south into the CAA garlic press. In the Arctic offshore of Prince Patrick Island, I can track individual floes moving west toward the Beaufort at about 10 km/day.

This is why the Beaufort seems so resistant to melt this season. It's the new Greenland Sea, a region receiving large volumes of exported ice. But just like the Greenland Sea, high area there is not good news. The ice being shoved west this way includes some of the last vestiges of true MYI. And so it doesn't matter if the winds stop and the rotation stops and the Crack "meanders" closed. Because the ice is no longer where it belongs.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3037 on: July 17, 2020, 03:37:08 PM »
The rate of area loss in the respective seas suggests that Hudson, Baffin, Laptev and Kara all will be empty of ice within 10 days.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3038 on: July 17, 2020, 03:52:18 PM »

Please continue the Arctic flights discussion in a new thread. Point made, a good point indeed, but the details belong elsewhere.

Good moderating Oren, all the way around. Thank you

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3039 on: July 17, 2020, 03:55:41 PM »
It is almost a certainty, thus, that 2020 will be the new lowest of all time. To me, the only question is not "if" 2020 will beat 2012; the only question is by how much.

That's a brave statement while the "almost" contradicts the "only question" part a bit.

Be assured that I see things exactly like you do, only with one little caution. We have gotten by surprises so many times in the past that I would sign your views off but with a "most probably" instead of "only question"

Really curious about the outcome like most probably anyone else.

 8)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 04:57:05 PM by igs »

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3040 on: July 17, 2020, 03:57:41 PM »
I didn't realize the magnitude of differences from 2012. As has been the case throughout the season, it's the Beaufort against the whole Arctic.


Looking at anything data that we have today I'd bet that the beaufort ist mostly doomed as well.


Interesting times indeed.

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3041 on: July 17, 2020, 04:18:12 PM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.


Just to be on the save side, I'm sure you see this the same way, I don't think the problem is to come up with false assumptions and stuff like that from time to time, the tyring part is the stubbornly insisting part despite all that point into another direction and is shared by those who have seen many seasons in the past. It would be a pity if the discussions became overstreamlined because that as well does not expand the horizons and thinking patterns.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3042 on: July 17, 2020, 04:25:54 PM »
Laptev has bitten 110km in the last 4 days. WOW
big time oops

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3043 on: July 17, 2020, 04:30:41 PM »
What is it in the East Siberian Sea? That wasn't in yesterday's photo.

Clouds? Airplane trail?

EDIT: Posted before reaching your post @Oren  :-[

That's how they mark trees to be felled ;)

Someone up there made his mind up perhaps. [JK]
In more on-topic terms, that's the part i expect to vanish before the game is over.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 04:55:36 PM by igs »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3044 on: July 17, 2020, 04:38:38 PM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.


Just to be on the save side, I'm sure you see this the same way, I don't think the problem is to come up with false assumptions and stuff like that from time to time, the tyring part is the stubbornly insisting part despite all that point into another direction and is shared by those who have seen many seasons in the past. It would be a pity if the discussions became overstreamlined because that as well does not expand the horizons and thinking patterns.

Excellent points.  Open minds, open discussions, continuous learning, evidence-based reasoning

-- NOT ideological stances, I-thought-of-it-so-it-must-be-right, or unwillingness to concede that other evidence-based reasoning may have validity.

Learning arises from continually correcting one's own mistakes.

I really enjoy this forum BTW.  And the whole atmosphere and approach has improved greatly from when I first joined.  Thanks to all moderators and fellow participants.   :D
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 05:11:06 PM by Pagophilus »
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3045 on: July 17, 2020, 04:45:14 PM »
After the latest NSIDC extent update, we're now below the minima of 4 additional years, '82, '86, '92 and '96.

All but 2 of the last 20 melt seasons would put the 2020 minimum at least 2nd lowest on record.

The average extent loss of the last 10 years would produce a minimum of 3.64 million km2

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3046 on: July 17, 2020, 05:26:37 PM »
The average extent loss of the last 10 years would produce a minimum of 3.64 million km2

That's where I suppose the extend to be in mid September. This or we will have to see another extreme event to bring it further down.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3047 on: July 17, 2020, 05:50:43 PM »
It is almost a certainty, thus, that 2020 will be the new lowest of all time. To me, the only question is not "if" 2020 will beat 2012; the only question is by how much.

That's a brave statement while the "almost" contradicts the "only question" part a bit.

Be assured that I see things exactly like you do, only with one little caution. We have gotten by surprises so many times in the past that I would sign your views off but with a "most probably" instead of "only question"

Really curious about the outcome like most probably anyone else.

 8)
Can't agree. The question "if" is answered with "almost certainly it will". Certain international panel uses the term "very likely" in such circumstances. Thus, in practice the interesting question by now is not "if", but rather how much 2020's minimum is expected to dip under 2012 in "most likely to happen" scenario.

In other words, there is no contradiction. "The only question" is for short; "the only indeed interesting question in this regard" is what was meant.

P.S. Oren: i am surprised to see the old (and quite good) tradition of keeping a beginning of a forking good discussion (a post or two) in melt topic and moving follow-ups to a separate thread while providing a link and invitation to such thread to anyone willing to continue - has changed. Complete removal of such beginnings from melt season topic is detrimental to its health a bit, i feel. Just an opinion for your consideration, hopefully helpful one. A copy of a post or two is probably the ideal solution, though i of course don't know if it's technically possible / easy-to-do with your tools. Still i think it'd be best for such future cases (no matter who begins next one of the kind - it's inevitable it'll happen regularly as we see over and over again, eh). %)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 05:57:20 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3048 on: July 17, 2020, 06:13:14 PM »
I humbly disagree, the latest minimum ever was I think 22nd (was that 2007?), one of the early ones was 2016 (the 8th? 9th?). Despite the heat in the system I very much doubt a minimum on 25th-30th. This will have to wait for a BOE, until then the surface water is cold and fresh where ice has recently melted, and freezing isn't hard once air temps hit a strong negative.
It's true though that a compacted ice pack refreezes later than a dispersed one, because refreeze usually starts from the center where it is cold earlier, and because open water beyond the pack's edges has time to become mixed and has higher salinity and SST. So it depends on the shape of the pack in September.

In any case, this discussion will be more appropriate later in the season as we get nearer to the minimum.
I agree this discussion should wait about at least a month. However, based on what you said here, i think you might find an interesting thing or two by merely quickly reading the abstract of this mid-2000s paper. Perhaps whole text would also be valuable to you, too. Well, till late august with more on that, then.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3049 on: July 17, 2020, 06:23:06 PM »
Melt pretty much stops the last week of August when insolation is at half the solstice-max. Three weeks later, in mid September, insolation hits ZERO.

Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.
big time oops