It is kind of funny to be so mesmerized by the plunging extent numbers, and yet they can be an indirect and sometimes counterintuitive representation of all that is going on. The compaction of the icecap by the high helped send the extent numbers plunging, but that compaction probably helped preserve the ice. So dropping extent can be, in a way, 'good'. It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice, and actual extent has little to do with that.
Paradoxically, one of the worst things that could happen is for a big and persistent low or similar weather system to arrive and scatter the ice. Maybe that will occur, and let's hope it doesn't. But if it does, it will either temporarily slow, or even reverse, the decline in extent numbers. Thus an apparent hiatus in extent losses would be terrible news for the ice as it is sent out into the surrounding warm seas, and as warm, saline water is perhaps churned to the surface of the Arctic. (And all this might be happening just as insolation is fading fast and bottom melt becomes paramount.)
I guess what is ironic to me is that, in the short term, extent losses can indicate almost the opposite of what they seem to imply. In the longer term, of course, there is no argument, net loss of extent by September is an unequivocally bad thing.
Sorry if all this is very obvious to all you experienced ice watchers out there ... had to get it off my chest. Here's hoping the ice pack stays together...
Not trying to pick on you or single you out but I can assure you that this huge ridge of high pressure has not helped to preserve the ice in any way.
It's not really compacting the ice. Yes on the Atlantic side and the laptev area have been hit by winds at an angle that pushes the ice towards the Southern CAB.
however the Beaufort, Chuchki, and ESS have all seen winds blow across the ice semi parallel to the ice edge.
I say semi so the ice gets flaired outward at times.
It might be hard to visualize in your head but the ice is melting so fast under the ridge and under those warm deep FOG EVENTS.
THAT WHEN THE ICE IS COMPACTED the CAR CONCENTRATION ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.
The first image is Bremen concentration on the 9th of July.
I use that image because it was right before the ridge strengthened again and moved.
The next image is from the most recent concentration.
The other image is a Modis enhanced image from today. I use that to show where the clouds were and the fog in the southern Canadian basin.
Under those clouds and fog. Concentration is about 100%. That's not real the water vapor in those clouds just tricking the sensors.
Anyways look how much the concentration has gone down since the ridge kicked in. This compaction thing is honestly a myth I've been screaming about it for so long and it's still just keeps being talked about like it's some real thing when it's not.
The wind might be in a compaction regime. but the overall melt from the incredible warmth and sun is completely negating that and bringing about low concentration faster than it can compact