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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3100 on: July 18, 2020, 02:41:53 PM »
...
Weather forecasts have become less accurate during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the reduction in commercial flights, according to new research.
...
Good post, but all discussion detailing air traffic subject is to be done in this separate topic as requested by our moderator Oren here, couple pages ago. So, you can save him a bit of work if you would put a copy of your full good post there and remove it in this topic. Thanks!
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3101 on: July 18, 2020, 02:49:13 PM »
ESS ice drifting to oblivion as it passes the New Siberian Islands and enters the neotropical waters of the southern Laptev Sea. 
 
(Algae blooms vigorously expanding all along the coastal waters and beyond.  Very interesting beige and brown coloration of the islands themselves BTW -- paler loose sediments and brown tundra/rocks???)
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3102 on: July 18, 2020, 03:12:56 PM »
Nullschool July 21 forecast.  With the already-discussed ending of the high and the development of a low -- moderate winds dragging some warmth and moisture across the main icepack from toasty Siberia and the open seas on the Siberian coast.   Of course, we have to see how persistent all this is going to be...
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 03:54:37 PM by Pagophilus »
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3103 on: July 18, 2020, 03:54:50 PM »
I noticed that the EPS ensemble forecasts were nearly identical the last two runs with average of a 990s mb low in the Beaufort. The 12z operational yesterday with the extreme deep low must have been a bit of an outlier maybe? Or just that the forecast models are freaking out a little bit with all the warmth and now a surge of moisture into the Arctic. Caveat: I like tracking the weather, but have no real meteorological knowledge, so take my interpretations with appropriate caution.
https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020071800&fh=156

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3104 on: July 18, 2020, 04:18:12 PM »
mercator 0m (ocean) temperature with amsr2uhh overlaid at 80% transparency. amsr2 0% concentration has been set to fully transparent. jun1-jul17

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3105 on: July 18, 2020, 05:01:58 PM »
That's a very helpful animation for seeing how the warming water is going to affect the ice pack. Needless to say, there's a problem for the Beaufort sea ice as increasingly warm water mixes with the ice that's advected into the region. Because it is relatively far south the Beaufort will keep on melting in August. It doesn't behave like the 80N to the pole region which is beginning to lose insolation now and will rapidly head towards darkness come August.

The very early clear out of ice in the Kara sea is allowing an influx of salty Atlantic water combined with warm river water to continue the process of "Atlantification" on the European side of the Arctic. Barents sea water got a surge of Atlantic water this winter from the positive AO and that surge is moving into the Arctic ocean. The strong offshore winds in the Siberian seas this spring and early summer also helped that process advance.

There was a long set up for the melt down we are seeing now under the high pressure dome over the pole. And as that dome breaks down, it looks like the warm air advection and excessive temperatures will be strong over the CAA and the eastern Canadian side of the Arctic ocean.

This is a year of epoch change, much of it not good. Weather patterns this fall will be skewed by the vast open water on the European side of the Arctic ocean. That brownish ice on the European side is slush and it's going to melt out or strongly compact towards the pole. There's going to be record amounts of open water on the side of the "Laptev bite".

Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3106 on: July 18, 2020, 05:14:09 PM »
Good post, but all discussion detailing air traffic ...

I thought it was a good post about the current performance of forecasts due to changing data sources.  It's not really about how the aircraft are affecting the weather.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3107 on: July 18, 2020, 05:21:03 PM »
mercator 0m (ocean) temperature with amsr2uhh overlaid at 80% transparency. amsr2 0% concentration has been set to fully transparent. jun1-jul17

Wonderful animation, uniquorn -- this has virtually become my new screensaver.  And thanks to FOoW for your analysis of it. 

By way of minor support, here is a July 16 worldview image, tweaked on Photoshop for contrast, that brings out that area of lowering ice concentration in the eastern Beaufort that has developed over the last few days.  Some clouds are in the way... it has been cloudy there.   The area is very evident on the animation.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 05:51:45 PM by Pagophilus »
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3108 on: July 18, 2020, 05:23:22 PM »
mercator 0m (ocean) temperature with amsr2uhh overlaid at 80% transparency. amsr2 0% concentration has been set to fully transparent. jun1-jul17
    Up thread I asked if pack ice disconnecting from continental and large island shores might lead to increase in ASI pack rotation.  Near the end of uniquorn's animation, just as the periperhal ice detaches from shorelines, the whole pack starts rotating.  Example of cause and effect, or just selective observation of a random correlation?
 
    The animation also shows active export from Lincoln Sea via the Nares Strait, which seems especially significant as it could be reducing what little is left of MYI.       
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 05:30:10 PM by Glen Koehler »

ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3109 on: July 18, 2020, 05:30:20 PM »
As suggested by b. c. my post from what’s new in the arctic

Not that new but very informative on both the high pressure/low pressure and anticyclonic/waa debates on what is more conducive to melt (hint probably the formers is what the study says)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022608#jgrd52033-fig-0006

High melt months are linked to higher pressure, increased sea of Okhotsk cloud cover in the later part of the melt season, very weakly with increased surface temperatures who trend towards 0, less clouds overall but an increase at the ice edge in august, reduced precipitations overall but higher in the sea of Okhotsk, less arctic cyclones except northern Alaska and northeastern Siberia, also a southward jet shift in the N. Atlantic and increased sea ice export.
I really urge you to read it, it’s very informative. Obviously correlation isn’t causation. It also has various other snippets of information, notably on the relationships that exist with the weather patterns of the rest of the northern hemisphere.
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3110 on: July 18, 2020, 05:47:53 PM »
Expecting a low to mid century drop for July 18th, if it's any higher this time I will be floored.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3111 on: July 18, 2020, 05:48:47 PM »
Laptev has bitten 165km in the last 9 days

<Garbage removed. GSY you are on the fast track to being put under moderation. O>
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 09:28:54 PM by oren »
big time oops

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3112 on: July 18, 2020, 06:10:35 PM »
i am not a scientist so this pic isn't exact.  but it does illustrate a possible outcome to this melting season.  it is a guess for discussion.

i've already predicted (i wasn't the first) a record minimum this year.

the years used in this illustration are ones in which a new annual minimum was established.  from this graph, i see:

minimum date:  sept 25-29
minumum extent:  2.5 km²

admittedly, this is, i repeat just my view and has no scientific validity,  But to me it is very revealing.
imo, this will not just be a record minimum but will smash 2012 into tiny pieces.

i first selected these years out of curiosity 5 mos ago.  Only now has made enough of an impression on my outlook that i post it.

i have been wrong before (sometimes spectacularly)*, but this is real data.

my extrapolation is certainly crude, but the underlying data is there.

i might add, extent is only area, and volumn is certainly more discriptive of how much actual ice there is, but chartic graphs are valuable when discerning trends.

how many of you think that 2020 has been a year of underestimation and that surprizes later this year will be extraordinary? 



*paraphrasing oren

td
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RikW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3113 on: July 18, 2020, 07:17:26 PM »
Don’t forget that seas that always melt out and melt out earlier this year makes it harder to just do some extrapolation; you can’t have negative area numbers

Though the fact that Beaufort is lagging doesn’t bode well... That is a sea that will probably do some catching up

Yossarian80

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3114 on: July 18, 2020, 07:22:17 PM »
I noticed that the EPS ensemble forecasts were nearly identical the last two runs with average of a 990s mb low in the Beaufort. The 12z operational yesterday with the extreme deep low must have been a bit of an outlier maybe?

It’s very likely the 965mb solution was an outlier, but be careful with interpretations of ensemble mean forecasts, especially in the extended. Theoretically each ensemble member could have a 970mb low, but still average out to 990mb due to spatial or timing differences between the members. I’m not saying this is happening here, just a hypothetical example. Without seeing the individual members its tough to know.

That said, the guidance across different runs and models is pretty clear now. The pattern is shifting and we will have some type of cyclone form and enter the Beaufort. Those rooting for ice retention should be happy with the pattern shift. The sunny/warm HP continues to be catastrophic for the ice, so finally cooling things off and blocking the sun with clouds is probably good news. Unless of course the cyclone bombs out.

Some ingredients are there for that to happen... the forecasted amplified trough/ridge pattern in eastern Russia and associated abnormal heat dome in northern Russian are some serious fuel for a potential strong cyclone to form and enter the arctic. It’s still a little too far out to get the details right, but it is worth watching closely.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3115 on: July 18, 2020, 08:36:55 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284350565825175555
...
i was just looking over at the numbers thread...and the difference between 2020 and 2nd place is about the same delta as 2nd place from 9th place.
The 2020 line is currently where I'd project the "2020's" average to be, so this decade, 5 years may be worse and 5 years better.
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3116 on: July 18, 2020, 08:45:10 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284350565825175555
...
i was just looking over at the numbers thread...and the difference between 2020 and 2nd place is about the same delta as 2nd place from 9th place.
The 2020 line is currently where I'd project the "2020's" average to be, so this decade, 5 years may be worse and 5 years better.
What strikes me is that the latest difference between this year and 2010's average is 902K km2. A huge difference and I think that it will be closer to a million in a couple of days.
As Friv says, it is insane!
Almost 700K km2 against 2012. Wow!
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 08:50:30 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

bill kapra

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3117 on: July 18, 2020, 08:53:46 PM »
It's FRIV, not FRIZ. Please don't misspell him,

That wasn't a typo. It's a racial slur and was done on purpose.

I really doubt that - I haven't seen racism here in the ACIF at all, if I did I'd shout it out loud... I'm the ultimate lurker (here since the beginning) I read and learn so much but post rarely.

Please keep it polite - it's an incredible season and thanks to Oren and of course Neven for all of this - it is a pleasure to observe and learn.

Ditto, Mark. I’ve been lurking here for ever. Very rarely have anything useful to contribute but often learn new things and frequently bring them to my university students.

Thank you all for being such an amazing resource and a (mostly) civil group.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3118 on: July 18, 2020, 09:30:00 PM »
I know that compaction is a thing and it has certainly been happening, however I also think the ice is far from being considered 'dense.' The damage from the GAH in the Laptev is just remarkable. I've never seen ice retreat and get munched like this. It's only mid-July too!! August has the potential to come out swinging.

pls!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3119 on: July 18, 2020, 10:42:08 PM »
Agreed. CAB compaction. A lot of talk but no analysis yet. Here looking at four identifiable points from jul10-17 north of Laptev.  https://go.nasa.gov/3fGWDd7
area jul10=64,120.16km^2
area jul18=63,738.14
ratio= 0.9903. Compaction in this area=not much
   a       nice      slow      animation 
The tools are all on worldview. An enthusiast might measure a larger area
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 11:02:57 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3120 on: July 19, 2020, 12:18:07 AM »
wipneus regional extent, Laptev and surround, jul17
image reposted below
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 12:36:31 AM by uniquorn »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3121 on: July 19, 2020, 12:24:16 AM »
What happened one March in the Central Arctic Basin that caused that purple icicle in the chart above?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3122 on: July 19, 2020, 12:30:47 AM »
Not sure. Maybe it was this.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3123 on: July 19, 2020, 12:36:00 AM »
But that shouldn't detract from this.
wipneus regional extent, Laptev and surround, jul17
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 12:45:51 AM by uniquorn »

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3124 on: July 19, 2020, 12:42:29 AM »
Today's Worldview big picture is beautiful.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3125 on: July 19, 2020, 01:00:20 AM »
Today's Worldview big picture is beautiful.

It is now obvious that the entire Beaufort / Chukchi flank of the pack is about to collapse, look at the darkening, it matches the area that melts out in the extended HYCOM and EURO forecasts. It won't melt out entirely but an area of 1M KM^2+ is about to disintegrate into open water and floes. And a similar area is about to meet the same fate on the Laptev front... also visible.

ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3126 on: July 19, 2020, 01:25:45 AM »
Not sure. Maybe it was this.
That area, south of the pole towards the gaps between the atlantic islands but very close to the pole at about 86 North , also had meltponding around very white edges in 2019 (july 3-8) creating a weird thin rectangular artifact that seems to reappear in june 22-24 in 2020, in addition it is where there is crack like lower concentration in june 27 29 and 30, also of this year, and corresponds to a deeper basin in the bathymetry too, it is probably all linked but how is above my pay grade. (All the dates correspond to Bremen concentration arctic maps, if anyone wants to see it for themselves or compile gifs go to https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#day=21&month=5&year=2020&img=%7B%22image%22%3A%22image-1%22%2C%22sensor%22%3A%22AMSR%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22visual%22%2C%22region%22%3A%22Arctic%22%7D)
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 01:35:17 AM by ajouis »
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Often Distant

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3127 on: July 19, 2020, 01:28:38 AM »
Sorry this image is so similar to the beautiful one just posted above. The longitude and latitude lines are of particular interest to me related to ice positioning.

A small gap in the clouds shows the Beaufort dispersing. Not looking good. How much ice it can retain down there below 80N will be interesting. The ESS had remnants in it at the end of last season that do not stand good chance for seeing this one out. Any such remnants prevent surrounding water warming beyond fridge temp. If this year can obliterate that ice below 80N, I expect the ESS will open up and warm just as fast as the Laptev come next season.

I fear a tipping point has already been reached. This is roughly the extent level where 2001 ended the season and we have 2 entire extra months of destruction before this season ends. 2 months in 2 decades, and that's based on a 2D measurement. The volume in this stuff just isn't what it was. At this point it would surprise me to not have new record minimum extent and area levels reached this year. It seems as if it is 2030 already looking at extent and area data and how far we are from the 2010's average. Very scary.

Can 4 million km2 be lost over 4 weeks? We may soon observe it.
Those wedges of slushy ice cake in the middle of the pack are being eaten away quite fast, having been largely swept clear of MYI. I feel half of them can be eaten away up to the pole before the season closes out. How hungry will the weather be?
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 01:41:06 AM by Often Distant »

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3128 on: July 19, 2020, 02:44:43 AM »
As the ATL front thins and disperses it is at the intersection of several major forces. The latest HYCOM and EURO both suggest, IMO, there is some possibility that as the FYI melts out, the ATL pack may actually fracture from the main icepack. It looks, again -- to my eyes -- like the Lomonosov Ridge might be the "sloughing" point for the sea ice / this division point. If such an event would occur it would actually triple the Atlantic melt front.... (the current front is 1X, if the ice breaks off from the main pack you now have 2X the front in the ice that is now removed from the pack PLUS an entirely new additional ice front where the ice rips in two against the main pack itself -- apologies if this language is a bit convoluted).

Such an event would be ideal for resolving +OHC / accumulated insolation however it will come at the expense of a huge chunk of the CAB, and if this occurs it could also be severely disruptive to the halocline.



The ice that is going to possibly slough off is centered on the thicker ice N of FJL... and the dispersion / melt point in the Laptev is looking like it might want to meet up with the one forming in the Lincoln Sea soon....



After illustrating the breakdown of what may be the new melt front I would conclude that if it does occur it is because we are running out of ice to export as it is possible that both of the ice fronts that open up actually involve ice moving in the same direction (counterintuitively)....

It is like the ATL front is unzipping so fast that a new zipper is opening behind the front lines bc the reinforcements (ice) cannot keep up w the heat.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 02:52:19 AM by bbr2315 »

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3129 on: July 19, 2020, 03:48:53 AM »
I think it's all down to SSTS now, if they are too warm, then I don't think the compact ice will stop melting as bottom melting will take over and ebb it away that way. If it can withstand the SSTS then the ice at higher latitudes should be more resilient than an diverse pack.

The problem we got, extent is record breaking small so it's going to be even more of a challenge to finish above 4 million and there is more open water to deal with. How much can the Beaufort ice survive, well who knows, it is getting a bit diffused but no where near the ESS levels so it's not likely to be a fast melt especially as the weather gods keep on trying to keep things cooler and cloudier there.

Compare this year's pack to 2016 is chalk and cheese, one got a higher extent but is full of holes and the other is much smaller but largely intact, which will finish higher? If they were level I would say 2020 but lots more true open water and warmer SSTS could tip the balance in a negative way. Will be a fascinating 2nd half of this epic melt season.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3130 on: July 19, 2020, 04:18:16 AM »
Love what FRIV contributes here. But November melt is a concept I'm taking a hard PASS on.

<Please avoid misspelling poster names, whether intentionally or not. O>

November melt is not happening in the central Arctic basin.
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3131 on: July 19, 2020, 04:40:00 AM »
I think it's all down to SSTS now, if they are too warm, then I don't think the compact ice will stop melting as bottom melting will take over and ebb it away that way. If it can withstand the SSTS then the ice at higher latitudes should be more resilient than an diverse pack.

I disagree, but not from experience, just from this logic: I think it is more down to how compact or dispersed the ice becomes.  Open water has to be exposed to the sun to warm up, unless it comes in from the other oceans.  Either way if the icepack remains compact, surrounding seas can only melt margins of the icepack.  Significant, but not as effective as dispersion.   

If storms/cyclonic systems disperse the main pack, then ice floes are carried out onto those warm surrounding waters and will melt very quickly.  That would be a disastrous scenario given the insolation hit the ice has already taken and could deliver a record or near record ice minimum.  On the other hand, if the main pack remains compact and in place over the main arctic basin, then there will probably always be cooler water (that lens of cold freshwater) immediately underneath the pack.

Glad to learn of anything that I may have missed here...   
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3132 on: July 19, 2020, 05:10:40 AM »
It is kind of funny to be so mesmerized by the plunging extent numbers, and yet they can be an indirect and sometimes counterintuitive representation of all that is going on.  The compaction of the icecap by the high helped send the extent numbers plunging, but that compaction probably helped preserve the ice.  So dropping extent can be, in a way, 'good'.  It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice, and actual extent has little to do with that.

Paradoxically, one of the worst things that could happen is for a big and persistent low or similar weather system to arrive and scatter the ice.  Maybe that will occur, and let's hope it doesn't.  But if it does, it will either temporarily slow, or even reverse, the decline in extent numbers.  Thus an apparent hiatus in extent losses would be terrible news for the ice as it is sent out into the surrounding warm seas, and as warm, saline water is perhaps churned to the surface of the Arctic.  (And all this might be happening just as insolation is fading fast and bottom melt becomes paramount.)

I guess what is ironic to me is that, in the short term, extent losses can indicate almost the opposite of what they seem to imply.  In the longer term, of course, there is no argument, net loss of extent by September is an unequivocally bad thing. 

Sorry if all this is very obvious to all you experienced ice watchers out there ... had to get it off my chest.   Here's hoping the ice pack stays together...

Not trying to pick on you or single you out but I can assure you that this huge ridge of high pressure has not helped to preserve the ice in any way.

It's not really compacting the ice.  Yes on the Atlantic side and the laptev area  have been hit by winds at an angle that pushes the ice towards the Southern CAB.

however the Beaufort, Chuchki, and ESS have all seen winds blow across the ice semi parallel to the ice edge.

I say semi so the ice gets flaired outward at times.

It might be hard to visualize in your head but the ice is melting so fast under the ridge and under those warm deep FOG EVENTS.

THAT WHEN THE ICE IS COMPACTED the CAR CONCENTRATION ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.

The first image is Bremen concentration on the 9th of July.

I use that image because it was right before the ridge strengthened again and moved.

The next image is from the most recent concentration.

The other image is a Modis enhanced image from today.  I use that to show where the clouds were and the fog in the southern Canadian basin.

Under those clouds and fog.  Concentration is about 100%.  That's not real the water vapor in those clouds just tricking the sensors.   

Anyways look how much the concentration has gone down since the ridge kicked in.  This compaction thing is honestly a myth I've been screaming about it for so long and it's still just keeps being talked about like it's some real thing when it's not. 

The wind might be in a compaction regime. but the overall melt from the incredible warmth and sun is completely negating that and bringing about low concentration faster than it can compact
I got a nickname for all my guns
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3133 on: July 19, 2020, 05:26:21 AM »
A lot of darkening showing up on the Laptev/ESS side of the CAB now. Some of that is soot/dust deposition, but a lot is from rapid thinning and extensive surface melt on even the smaller floes. Another week and most of that will start "milking" out (what the ESS looks like right now).

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3134 on: July 19, 2020, 05:33:36 AM »
JAXA 6.55M / -130K / we are now 10% less than 2012 or about 750K KM^2.

Bremen shows Laptev front is cratering...

There is a chance we get to over 1M KM^2 ahead of 2012 by 8/22-23 btw
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 05:45:15 AM by bbr2315 »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3135 on: July 19, 2020, 05:44:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km2, a century drop of -124,140 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table & graph.


Unfucking believable!!!!!

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3136 on: July 19, 2020, 05:55:48 AM »
It is kind of funny to be so mesmerized by the plunging extent numbers, and yet they can be an indirect and sometimes counterintuitive representation of all that is going on.  The compaction of the icecap by the high helped send the extent numbers plunging, but that compaction probably helped preserve the ice.  So dropping extent can be, in a way, 'good'.  It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice, and actual extent has little to do with that.

Paradoxically, one of the worst things that could happen is for a big and persistent low or similar weather system to arrive and scatter the ice.  Maybe that will occur, and let's hope it doesn't.  But if it does, it will either temporarily slow, or even reverse, the decline in extent numbers.  Thus an apparent hiatus in extent losses would be terrible news for the ice as it is sent out into the surrounding warm seas, and as warm, saline water is perhaps churned to the surface of the Arctic.  (And all this might be happening just as insolation is fading fast and bottom melt becomes paramount.)

I guess what is ironic to me is that, in the short term, extent losses can indicate almost the opposite of what they seem to imply.  In the longer term, of course, there is no argument, net loss of extent by September is an unequivocally bad thing. 

Sorry if all this is very obvious to all you experienced ice watchers out there ... had to get it off my chest.   Here's hoping the ice pack stays together...

Not trying to pick on you or single you out
No worries.  I enjoy debate and learn from it, and I enjoy your posts. 
but I can assure you that this huge ridge of high pressure has not helped to preserve the ice in any way.
I think I say exactly this above:  "It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice" 

It's not really compacting the ice. 
Here we will have to differ.  Anticyclones compact ice.  They cannot help it.  Moving objects appear to be dragged to the right of their direction of movement in the N Hemisphere (the Coriolis Effect).  This was/is an unusually long, consistent high.
Yes on the Atlantic side and the laptev area  have been hit by winds at an angle that pushes the ice towards the Southern CAB.


however the Beaufort, Chuchki, and ESS have all seen winds blow across the ice semi parallel to the ice edge.

I say semi so the ice gets flaired outward at times.

It might be hard to visualize in your head but the ice is melting so fast under the ridge and under those warm deep FOG EVENTS.

THAT WHEN THE ICE IS COMPACTED the CAR CONCENTRATION ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.

The first image is Bremen concentration on the 9th of July.

I use that image because it was right before the ridge strengthened again and moved.

The next image is from the most recent concentration.

The other image is a Modis enhanced image from today.  I use that to show where the clouds were and the fog in the southern Canadian basin.

Under those clouds and fog.  Concentration is about 100%.  That's not real the water vapor in those clouds just tricking the sensors.   

Anyways look how much the concentration has gone down since the ridge kicked in.  This compaction thing is honestly a myth I've been screaming about it for so long and it's still just keeps being talked about like it's some real thing when it's not. 

The wind might be in a compaction regime. but the overall melt from the incredible warmth and sun is completely negating that and bringing about low concentration faster than it can compact

As to the rest, compaction aside,  I agree with much of what you write, and I think your point about fog is important and humidity is important, and often neglected, at least here.  But I don't see how any of your points are invalidated by the fact that the ice pack is being compacted even as it is being melted.  And I think it is a really hard thing to determine how much extent has gone down because of compaction and how much because of melting. It does not have to be all one thing or another.  Perhaps others can bring their experience here.  And really, that was not the reason for my original post... I was just commenting on some ironies when it came to reading extent numbers...
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 06:01:04 AM by Pagophilus »
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ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3137 on: July 19, 2020, 06:27:53 AM »
Friv, while I am in general agreement that the current conditions were hellish for the ice, please keep in mind that concentration can also be artificially lowered by wetness as can be increased by clouds
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 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3138 on: July 19, 2020, 06:45:47 AM »
Nullschool July 21 forecast.  With the already-discussed ending of the high and the development of a low -- moderate winds dragging some warmth and moisture across the main icepack from toasty Siberia and the open seas on the Siberian coast.   Of course, we have to see how persistent all this is going to be...


Even only a couple days of that will be DEVESTATING.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3139 on: July 19, 2020, 07:27:04 AM »
Friv, while I am in general agreement that the current conditions were hellish for the ice, please keep in mind that concentration can also be artificially lowered by wetness as can be increased by clouds

I know.  And that's probably the case in many places right now.

The animation below is from the laptev and near ESS.

The last 4 days.

We can see major melt out in PLACE...

GUYS AND GALS.... THAT IS INCREDIBLY RARE.

AND IT'S ONLY 7/19/20
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3140 on: July 19, 2020, 07:43:10 AM »
The animation below is from the laptev and near ESS.

The last 4 days.

We can see major melt out in PLACE...

Now that is pretty interesting. With the constant compacting winds one would expect such gaps to be quickly filled by the ice around it, rather than expand because they melt even faster than new ice can fill them.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3141 on: July 19, 2020, 07:49:11 AM »
As far as the ongoing discussion over the last few days, I do not see any evidence of widespread compaction or ice stacking. There is obviously widespread melting going on. I think there is more melting than we can observe right now, not less.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3142 on: July 19, 2020, 07:59:02 AM »
The animation below is from the laptev and near ESS.

The last 4 days.

We can see major melt out in PLACE...

Now that is pretty interesting. With the constant compacting winds one would expect such gaps to be quickly filled by the ice around it, rather than expand because they melt even faster than new ice can fill them.


Exactly... The last month has been so bad for the ice.  This is truly unprecedented territory we are in.

So I hope everyone appreciate how amazing the territory we are in is
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3143 on: July 19, 2020, 08:22:43 AM »
Here is the next 3 days on the 00Z euro.  The ESS , part of the Chuchki, far far Northern Laptev, and the central Arctic basin is truly going to get decimated by this.

Concentration is going to straight
Plummet. 

Area will have a mini cliff.

Extent will continue to drop.

I AM ALMOST ASHAMED AT HOW EXCITED I AM ABOUT THIS.  WE ARE WITNESSING EPIC HISTORY IN REAL TIME!!!!

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3144 on: July 19, 2020, 08:44:03 AM »
At this rate, there will be next to no sea ice left south of 80N and the arc between 90E and 150E, by the end of July. Wonder when this last happened ?
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 09:47:25 AM by wallen »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3145 on: July 19, 2020, 08:53:38 AM »
00z EC has a terrible solution for the ice after D7. If it materializes ofc.

This season is just like the world today: CRAZY!

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3146 on: July 19, 2020, 08:58:41 AM »
In fact, the 00z EC run is even WORSE after D7 as it targets the area where the thickest ice is. As always, it is far out but if that forecast comes true we should virtually for sure see a new record low volume this year.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 09:32:38 AM by Lord M Vader »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3147 on: July 19, 2020, 09:14:39 AM »
At this rate, there will next to no sea ice left north of 80N and the arc between 90E and 150E, by the end of July. Wonder when this last happened ?


When humans (H. sapien) only lived on the African savanna.

Just kidding. .I don't know but it's been a long time.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3148 on: July 19, 2020, 09:24:14 AM »
And here I thought 2012 was bad enough, holy shit this forecast is insane!

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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3149 on: July 19, 2020, 09:42:28 AM »
There is a lot of discussion regarding melting at the periphery and surface of the ice. However, there are probably undercurrents melting the ice from below which are just as deadly to reduction in area and volume.