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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3450 on: July 23, 2020, 07:37:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: 926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Lol wow.  So many bad posts the last two days.  This nonsensical compaction talking point is a joke.  Sigh I guess this is the goalpost moving.


2020 is now 925,000km2 below 2012.

I thought this INSANE compaction was going to cause a historic slow down and losses I'm sure there will be a slow down but these hyperbole post are ridiculous going against the obvious things that are happening.

The 12z  euro and 00z euro last night are  both warm.

So yeah historic slow down underway.  Soon 2020 will be 3rd place according to the record compaction crowd.

CLICK to animate the weather forecast

<Agreed, but removed person-specific comment. O>
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:51:40 AM by oren »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3451 on: July 23, 2020, 07:43:46 AM »
Regarding compaction or not, I keep going back to the Polarstern pic from late June.  If ice like that is being regarded as compact, I think it could in fact pack together a lot tighter.  Click for high res.


This is why Phoenix, Paul, pearscot, and Michael are all wrong.

This is exactly what summer time "compaction " is.

They all know that.


THIS THREAD ITMS QUICKLY BECOMING A JOKE WITH EVERYONE INCLUDING MYSELF HAVING TO REFUTE THIS NONSENSE

<Softened language. O>
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:52:17 AM by oren »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3452 on: July 23, 2020, 07:47:58 AM »
Although I agree with your analysis, Friv, I do not agree with your characterisation of some individuals on this forum as trolls - people who express honest opinions should be free to do so, if we disagree we should be able to say so without resorting to childish tantrums.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3453 on: July 23, 2020, 07:54:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: 926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Lol wow.  So many bad posts the last two days.  This nonsensical compaction talking point is a joke.  Sigh I guess this is the goalpost moving.


2020 is now 925,000km2 below 2012.

I thought this INSANE compaction was going to cause a historic slow down and losses I'm sure there will be a slow down but these hyperbole post are ridiculous going against the obvious things that are happening.

The 12z  euro and 00z euro last night are  both warm.

So yeah historic slow down underway.  Soon 2020 will be 3rd place according to the record compaction crowd.

CLICK to animate the weather forecast


I thought the melt was diminished?????


« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:52:58 AM by oren »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3454 on: July 23, 2020, 07:56:16 AM »
Although I agree with your analysis, Friv, I do not agree with your characterisation of some individuals on this forum as trolls - people who express honest opinions should be free to do so, if we disagree we should be able to say so without resorting to childish tantrums.

Maybe saying trolls is a little harsh and helps precipitate a conflict.

But having people INTENTIONALLY DERAIL  THIS THREAD is very lame
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3455 on: July 23, 2020, 08:02:41 AM »
Although I agree with your analysis, Friv, I do not agree with your characterisation of some individuals on this forum as trolls - people who express honest opinions should be free to do so, if we disagree we should be able to say so without resorting to childish tantrums.

Maybe saying trolls is a little harsh and helps precipitate a conflict.

But having people INTENTIONALLY DERAIL  THIS THREAD is very lame
I don't think they are intentionally derailing the thread. They have opinions, and like many of us perhaps they like to be a bit contrarian every now and then. But I suggest that we delete these comment, friv, both yours and mine.
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aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3456 on: July 23, 2020, 08:05:06 AM »

4. Will a strong cyclone develop on the Pacific side? Right now both the GFS/Euro are forecasting a 980mb LP on day 5. The storm doesn’t look too terrible, but if a bigger/stronger/persistent cyclone does develop in this area that would be trouble for the vast amount of vulnerable ice/rubble in the Beaufort.

I kindly disagree, the forecast is looking incredibly bad for Beaufort sea over the end of the week-end. The cyclone which was forecasted to try to bomb out from the Laptev sea fizzle out, but now the machine is running full steam ahead. Each minima is pumping warm, moist air from the continent, and in the front a new low developps and push air pressure lower and lower. We are going for a persistence of cyclones rotating over Beaufort sea. IFS 12Z is reaching 980 hPa at H+120, we will see the 00Z but this is definitively a bad setup. It is not THE big one, but action will take place over Beaufort sea and act to disper sea ice here. On top of that, we still have convective instability above the boundary layer with high rain rate, locally up to 15 - 20mm in 6 hours. The washing machine is on.

P.S. : I didn't see answer from Friv' but I agree with him. And the 00Z of the IFS is still going down to 983 hPa...
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:23:48 AM by aslan »

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3457 on: July 23, 2020, 08:06:29 AM »
The ice is compact, I don't understand how that's a controversial statement at all. Like it has been said before, compactness is just area divided by extent. And that figure is very high, as is to be expected after the central basins have experienced compacting winds for weeks on end.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3458 on: July 23, 2020, 08:20:52 AM »
The ice is compact, I don't understand how that's a controversial statement at all.
Well there are degrees of compactness.

The ice is not dispersed on a large scale, it is compacted.
But at the same time, on a smaller scale, the ice can be quite loose and fragile, scattered and thin - i.e. not compact.
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bluice

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3459 on: July 23, 2020, 08:23:42 AM »
Isn’t the so called compaction simply masking in situ melt in the CAB? That explains the rapid retraction of ice edge towards north with unprecedented extent losses.

ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3460 on: July 23, 2020, 08:26:34 AM »
Friv, yeah the weather is warm, would that be considered ridging for the later part of the forecast or not high enough pressure?
However, please refrain from quasi insulting other contributors, being harsh isn’t going to make them change their minds and it’s just going to produce more drama.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3461 on: July 23, 2020, 08:27:52 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.

2020: -926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Another 117k drop or above and we'll go dipping under 6,000,000km2, I feel like there might be more century drops, let's hope a high does not develop or a GAC because then the ice will be truly screwed.
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3462 on: July 23, 2020, 08:32:41 AM »
The ice IS totally screwed.

Every area there is over the Arctic with sea ice has now been battered by melt like never before. The only question now is how many years before BOE. 10 at most.

aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3463 on: July 23, 2020, 08:34:36 AM »

4. Will a strong cyclone develop on the Pacific side? Right now both the GFS/Euro are forecasting a 980mb LP on day 5. The storm doesn’t look too terrible, but if a bigger/stronger/persistent cyclone does develop in this area that would be trouble for the vast amount of vulnerable ice/rubble in the Beaufort.

I kindly disagree, the forecast is looking incredibly bad for Beaufort sea over the end of the week-end. The cyclone which was forecasted to try to bomb out from the Laptev sea fizzle out, but now the machine is running full steam ahead. Each minima is pumping warm, moist air from the continent, and in the front a new low developps and push air pressure lower and lower. We are going for a persistence of cyclones rotating over Beaufort sea. IFS 12Z is reaching 980 hPa at H+120, we will see the 00Z but this is definitively a bad setup. It is not THE big one, but action will take place over Beaufort sea and act to disper sea ice here. On top of that, we still have convective instability above the boundary layer with high rain rate, locally up to 15 - 20mm in 6 hours. The washing machine is on.

P.S. : I didn't see answer from Friv' but I agree with him. And the 00Z of the IFS is still going down to 983 hPa...

Ok correction, 978 hPa at 144 hours... Come on Brive ! XD Forecaster widsdom, when the IFS is stable and going stronger step by step and hPa by hPa, follow the trend. Again it is not a GAC but the cyclone is going to destroy the last stronghold of this year, the Beaufort sea. We are really going to go trough the floor.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3464 on: July 23, 2020, 08:49:12 AM »
Lets not reinvent the wheel. We could use the terms increasing or decreasing CONCENTRATION since that is the term used on the maps provided by scientists who measure such things. CONCENTRATION maps show area/extent by color. Somebody used the wrong term and people lost their shit imagining what the new term means.  ;D

It still surprises me how much ice shows up on shorelines that clearly have none in the CONCENTRATION maps.

The thing about a CONCENTRATION map is you need a thickness map right be side it to be able to judge how soon it will actually melt. If you do not you may be puzzled why that 80% CONCENTRATIONregion does not seem to melt or a 90% CONCENTRATION region seems to disappear over night. The 80% CONCENTRATION[/size]region might be 10 m thick while the 90% CONCENTRATION[/font] region is 5 cm thick.The most recent Piomas (7/15/2020) shows the Beufort between 1.25 and 2 m thick.The 7/20/2020 Hycom shows ice mostly between 0.5 and 2.5 m thick. With half less than 0.8 m thick and half above.


 ;D ;D ;D :'( ;D ;D :-X







« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:57:30 AM by interstitial »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3465 on: July 23, 2020, 08:54:52 AM »
Depending on the evolution it seems that a pattern shift might be underway. From high pressure to a cyclonic and windy start of August. EC operational run is depicting this idea. Remains to ser if the op run is an outlier or if the ensemble agrees about this.

Yossarian80

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3466 on: July 23, 2020, 08:57:20 AM »
Ok correction, 978 hPa at 144 hours... Come on Brive ! XD Forecaster widsdom, when the IFS is stable and going stronger step by step and hPa by hPa, follow the trend. Again it is not a GAC but the cyclone is going to destroy the last stronghold of this year, the Beaufort sea. We are really going to go trough the floor.

Lol wow... yeah, tonight’s Euro would be disasterous for the Beaufort. I don’t think the previous run with  the 980mb was too terrible. Pretty transient with some rain and warmth briefly pumped in, but not persistent enough to make a huge huge impact in the Beaufort via wind and waves imo. Most of the relentless warmth would’ve been over the CAA. Certainly wasn’t trying to argue it was good though, just worth watching. And now even more so for sure!

Tonight’s run would be bad bad bad news.  Relentless wind and waves pulverizing the sea ice and rubble for days. Some are overestimating the Beaufort ice, considering it a stronghold this year. But it looks terrible on satellite and the concentration maps.  A storm like this would absolutely wreck it.

jens

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3467 on: July 23, 2020, 08:59:46 AM »
Something truly extraordinary must happen for 2020 to NOT beat 2019. And remember, 2019 itself slowed down after early August too. 2nd place is virtually guaranteed. The only question is whether 2020 could challenge and beat 2012. It has a buffer of almost 1M km2 right now, and that's a lot. This kind of buffer can manage several slow-downs as well. That all in my uneducated opinion.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3468 on: July 23, 2020, 09:06:40 AM »
I've softened some of Friv's comments above but left the Friv-binntho exchange intact as it saves me some speeches. While I fully agree with Friv's analysis of the melt momentum, and share his frustration with some of the comments on this thread, binntho is exactly right in his rebuttal - wrong people are wrong, not trolls, and by posting wrong opinions they are not derailing the thread. They are probably derailing their future reputation as ice forecasters, and showing that even on the famed ASIF people can be spectacularly wrong.

Please avoid continuing this meta-discussion on this thread, consider binntho's as the last word. I will continue editing if needed when posters make personal comments about other posters' character or intentions. Of course, feel free to comment about other posters' wrongness.

One thing I will not allow further without some references - the claim that ice in the middle of the ocean is ridged and stacked in the summer under a HP ("compaction") regime. While I know nothing much of the subject, this has been a recurring talking point (esp. Michael Hauber) with no proof presented, and under dispute by many other posters. So I ask further claims of this type to be made in a separate thread and scientific references be presented to bolster said claim.

aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3469 on: July 23, 2020, 09:06:58 AM »
Ok correction, 978 hPa at 144 hours... Come on Brive ! XD Forecaster widsdom, when the IFS is stable and going stronger step by step and hPa by hPa, follow the trend. Again it is not a GAC but the cyclone is going to destroy the last stronghold of this year, the Beaufort sea. We are really going to go trough the floor.

Lol wow... yeah, tonight’s Euro would be disasterous for the Beaufort. I don’t think the previous run with  the 980mb was too terrible. Pretty transient with some rain and warmth briefly pumped in, but not persistent enough to make a huge huge impact in the Beaufort via wind and waves imo. Most of the relentless warmth would’ve been over the CAA. Certainly wasn’t trying to argue it was good though, just worth watching. And now even more so for sure!

Tonight’s run would be bad bad bad news.  Relentless wind and waves pulverizing the sea ice and rubble for days. Some are overestimating the Beaufort ice, considering it a stronghold this year. But it looks terrible on satellite and the concentration maps.  A storm like this would absolutely wreck it.

Yes ;) I agree with you, to be precise I said stronghold, but it was more exactly to say that it is where there is still lot of ice, and so huge losses possible. But yeah, Beaufort sea ice is weakening and is not looking especially "strong".

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3470 on: July 23, 2020, 09:28:03 AM »
July Arcus report should be out soon

The June report gave a median result very similar to 2019

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/june


It will be interesting to see if this months forecast is lower

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3471 on: July 23, 2020, 10:03:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.

2020: -926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Another 117k drop or above and we'll go dipping under 6,000,000km2, I feel like there might be more century drops, let's hope a high does not develop or a GAC because then the ice will be truly screwed.


It is looking like below 3 million km^2 is likely this year. If we had a GAC which i would not bet against with the crazy year we are having in 2020, we could go below 2 million KM^2! Setting the Arctic up for a BOE in the next few years  :o

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3472 on: July 23, 2020, 10:17:50 AM »
I think 4.0 mil km2 or above would require a miracle.


I think a safe bet is 3.2-3.6km2 min.

With a lean towards 2.7-3.1km2 min
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3473 on: July 23, 2020, 10:28:07 AM »
Beaufort thinning out already. Big block in the middle 'pulverised'
amsr2-uhh, jul12-22 click

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3474 on: July 23, 2020, 10:34:37 AM »
Commented redacted since uniquorn just beat me to making the same point!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3475 on: July 23, 2020, 10:36:09 AM »
July 18-22.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3476 on: July 23, 2020, 10:41:07 AM »
Do you expect a 2nd place, MH?

1st-highly unlikely
2nd- good chance but weather will need a spell of favourable melt conditions at some stage
3rd or lower - quite possible if weather stays favourable for ice retention.
In my view anything above 2nd place is highly unlikely. Looking at loss from this date there are two metrics which support this. 

Extent: Only the 2006 extent loss of 203K from this date would leave a total extent above 2nd position. An average loss would be 3.325M way below 2019's 3.964. It is also worth noting that the average loss from this date is increasing and losses in 3 of the last  5 years would have taken extent below 2012 from this position.

Percentage loss to date: The average percentage loss to date is declining and if this year was average(71.4%) the minimum extent would be 400K below 2012. The minimum extent based on percentage already lost (76.10%) would still be 3.500 M. 

As we have about 8 weeks of weather ahead of us it is far to early to suggest that an unusual weather pattern is occurring that would prevent a fairly  normal decline from this date. So I  can't see much chance of a rating greater than 2 for this year. with a fair possibility of a record low.

The graph below illustrates these figures:
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3477 on: July 23, 2020, 10:51:52 AM »
Just wondering, when will the ice in CAA start to give in. It seems like for much of CAA islands temperatures will remain nicely near +10C until the end of July.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3478 on: July 23, 2020, 10:57:47 AM »
The Euro forecast a cyclone ~980hpa will hit the CAB in the following day. How much ice will survive?
If scorching heat is the melody of first half part, the stormy weather is the left part. BOE is still possible.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3479 on: July 23, 2020, 10:59:11 AM »
Beaufort thinning out already. Big block in the middle 'pulverised'
amsr2-uhh, jul12-22 click
This doesn't look like healthy ice at all. Admittedly other low years had a lot of open water in this region by this date, but I see no reason to believe this will not be open water by September.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3480 on: July 23, 2020, 11:04:59 AM »
To my eyes it shows an expectation that area/extent losses will slow, but that thinning will still be occurring
Hycom forecasts do not show area/extent losses in their forecasts. If there was Ice in a location the forecast will show at least the thinnnest ice. Their forecasts show thin ice turning white but never melting.

Thanks for taking the time to improve my understanding.  It is much appreciated.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3481 on: July 23, 2020, 11:06:57 AM »


Lol wow.  So many bad posts the last two days.  This nonsensical compaction talking point is a joke.  Sigh I guess this is the goalpost moving.


2020 is now 925,000km2 below 2012.

I thought this INSANE compaction was going to cause a historic slow down and losses I'm sure there will be a slow down but these hyperbole post are ridiculous going against the obvious things that are happening.

The 12z  euro and 00z euro last night are  both warm.

So yeah historic slow down underway.  Soon 2020 will be 3rd place according to the record compaction crowd.

CLICK to animate the weather forecast

<Agreed, but removed person-specific comment. O>

I said 2nd place was quite likely, and that 3rd place was possible if adverse weather continues.  This is not saying 3rd place soon.  Maybe someone else said something like this but I missed it.

I'll stick to facts and arguments and leave the insults and exaggerations to you.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3482 on: July 23, 2020, 11:15:10 AM »
Just wondering, when will the ice in CAA start to give in. It seems like for much of CAA islands temperatures will remain nicely near +10C until the end of July.

It has already started to give in. The southernmost channel is already at least halfway open water, and the innermost large channel is cracking and disintegrating more day by day. This will just slowly spread more and more inwards over the next couple of months. It won't happen all at once though, the CAA ice is resilient.

wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3483 on: July 23, 2020, 11:23:31 AM »
This doesn't look like healthy ice at all. Admittedly other low years had a lot of open water in this region by this date, but I see no reason to believe this will not be open water by September.

Agree, I think Lincoln Sea is a great example of this. Last season there were a considerable number of large floes being sucked down the Naires Strait drain. There were frequent guesses as to where a floe would break up, jam in the strait, etc. Naires has been very late to open this season, but where are these floes this year?
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 12:08:59 PM by oren »

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3484 on: July 23, 2020, 12:04:24 PM »
I've softened some of Friv's comments above but left the Friv-binntho exchange intact as it saves me some speeches. While I fully agree with Friv's analysis of the melt momentum, and share his frustration with some of the comments on this thread, binntho is exactly right in his rebuttal - wrong people are wrong, not trolls, and by posting wrong opinions they are not derailing the thread. They are probably derailing their future reputation as ice forecasters, and showing that even on the famed ASIF people can be spectacularly wrong.

Please avoid continuing this meta-discussion on this thread, consider binntho's as the last word. I will continue editing if needed when posters make personal comments about other posters' character or intentions. Of course, feel free to comment about other posters' wrongness.

One thing I will not allow further without some references - the claim that ice in the middle of the ocean is ridged and stacked in the summer under a HP ("compaction") regime. While I know nothing much of the subject, this has been a recurring talking point (esp. Michael Hauber) with no proof presented, and under dispute by many other posters. So I ask further claims of this type to be made in a separate thread and scientific references be presented to bolster said claim.
Oren, compaction is well known to lead to ridging (I would not call it stacking) in 1D meshes (seen fron above) as the ice is rigid and fragile and it is the only way to alleviate pressure.
I don't find no reason to think this summer compaction has led to this in several places. I don't buy the 'as it compacts the exact amount of holes appear by meltout'. Many holes have indeed been seen but not in the central pack.
The burden of proof falls on those who claim there has not been ridging at all, not in those who claim the opposite. Thickening by pressure is a very well known feature of Arctic landscape.

But anyway, stormy August may destroy much of this, and this discussion may be forgotten.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3485 on: July 23, 2020, 12:06:20 PM »
with perfect timing for continued destruction of ice , the weather changes . Instead of slow cooking in situ ,  ice will be on the move . Problem is , where it moves to ... warmer , more southerly water with a longer melting season . This was always the inevitable danger . Melt slow down ? The real danger is that melt accelerates . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3486 on: July 23, 2020, 12:11:56 PM »
0z ECM and GFS in broad agreement on the weather to day 4/5, a variable mix of high and low pressure and a broad pattern favouring dispersion.
After that, ECM allows a deep low to take hold with some potentially stormy conditions, while the GFS produces a reverse dipole with a strong Atlantic to Pacific air flow.

06z GFS coming out now, so interesting to see where that goes

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I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3487 on: July 23, 2020, 12:28:35 PM »
I fear for the Beaufort and surrounding seas;

Based on the worldview area measurement I did I think there is between 1.1M and 1.3M ice; Clouds make it more diffcult to have a good line :(

And seeing how bad the ice appears to be and how fast other parts of the arctic just disappeared/melted out, I won't be suprised if a large part of it will melt out in the next 2 weeks;

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3488 on: July 23, 2020, 12:38:51 PM »
Meteorologists say temperatures in parts of Siberia could reach well into the 90s over the next few days, the latest heat wave in a year that has seen unusually persistent warm weather in the region.

"Savage heat for several days incoming for Siberia. Again," tweeted Scott Duncan from utility company EDF Energy.

Duncan said the minimum temperature in some parts of Arctic Siberia will not drop below 68 degrees Fahrenheit for several days, what some countries refer to as a "tropical night," according to a series of tweets.

"Truly mind-blowing. Records likely to fall," he wrote.

In fact, one location in northern Siberia called Kujga, found within the Arctic circle at a latitude of 70 degrees North, recorded a temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday, according to NASA data as wildfires engulfed the region around it.

https://www.newsweek.com/arctic-savage-temperatures-tropical-nights-siberia-95-1519745?fbclid=IwAR0fEinsXEYZbeXowOF6rbckR2hIViFsDKtkCxaW3GhWFZhgsaa0kie2o18

misfratz

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3489 on: July 23, 2020, 12:40:39 PM »
I was really surprised when 2019 slowed right down and didn't end up below 2012. I'm trying not to be surprised again.

The fate of this melt season is still in the hands of the weather. A massive new record - as in 2007 and 2012 - is still possible, but there's a lot of ice to melt until that happens.

Paddy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3490 on: July 23, 2020, 01:02:16 PM »
I fear for the Beaufort and surrounding seas;

Based on the worldview area measurement I did I think there is between 1.1M and 1.3M ice; Clouds make it more diffcult to have a good line :(

And seeing how bad the ice appears to be and how fast other parts of the arctic just disappeared/melted out, I won't be suprised if a large part of it will melt out in the next 2 weeks;

And given that the Beaufort is one of the few areas with above average extent for the time of year compared to recent years, i.e. with a lot of extent to lose, this could be one of a few factors that keep extent falling at above average rates for a bit longer.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3491 on: July 23, 2020, 01:59:53 PM »
I do agree with the posters who say finishing above 2nd lowest will be a miracle despite any compaction because the ice is so low on the Siberian side and more ice will melt from the Beaufort sea that its probably almost impossible to finish above 4 million from the position we are in now.

The only thing I been saying the current compaction may prevent a record low but let's not beat around the bush here, record low or not, the ice is going to be very low and the stark trends are there. Its been an extraordinary melt season and the lack of truw winter thickening in the Siberian seas has been exposed this summer.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3492 on: July 23, 2020, 02:03:49 PM »
Lots of posts about possible cyclones associated with low pressure developing here & here.

But not a squeak about possible wind speeds? The force applied by the wind is proportional to the square of the wind speed. So a 50 km.p.h wind will apply 4 times the force of a 25 km.p.h. wind to a surface. Wind speed makes all the difference in the world ?

I guess also the state of the ice is important - wind howling across an unbroken flat ice sheet would be far less damaging than a somewhat lesser wind on a broken up ridged surface with multiple open water leads?
____________________________________________________________
For people who like a bit of mathematics........

Calculating Force Based on Wind Speed
Calculating the force of wind requires the mass of air and acceleration of wind. The average density of a mass of air at sea level equals approximately 1.229 kilograms per cubic meter. The area the wind hits is measured, in this case, in square meters. The mass of air hitting a surface then equals air density times area. The acceleration (a) equals the square of the wind speed in meters per second (m/s).
Use the formula force (F) equals mass (m) times acceleration (a) to calculate the force in Newtons (N). One Newton equals one kilogram-meter per second squared (kg-m/s2).
Be sure to use the matching units. In this calculation, the average air density at sea level equals 1.229 kilograms per cubic meter (kg/m3). The area of air impact equals 1 square meter. To calculate the force of a 5-mile-per-hour wind, first convert the wind speed to meters per second. Using an online converter shows that 5 mph equals 2.24 m/s.
Filling in the formula force equals air mass (Am) times wind speed squared (F = Amxa2) gives this calculation:
F = (1 m2) × [1.229(kg/m3)] × [2.24(m/s)]2.

Completing the math shows that F = 6.17 kg-m/s2 or 6.17 N. So, a breeze of 5 miles per hour would have just enough force to lift a standard kite.
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grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3493 on: July 23, 2020, 02:33:47 PM »
Daily NSIDC area value went back to record low today.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3494 on: July 23, 2020, 02:41:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
Wind @ 250hPa

I'll do temp with the next forecast.

Large GiFS!
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3495 on: July 23, 2020, 02:51:24 PM »
Moderate wind speeds such as 30 kts can develop pretty good wave heights if they are sustained over long fetches of open water. If those waves then move into ice, they may accelerate melting. The Beaufort high is able to move and melt ice in May by forcing upwelling along the coast when winds are maintained for a week.

However, weak lows that move around will not do what the GAC did. The warms winds coming off the continents will do more to damage the ice than weak lows moving about the Arctic ocean. Sustained intense lows like the GAC pull up water from below on the right hand side of the moving storm near the center of the low. Weak lows that meander may disperse the ice a bit but that's all. Gerontocrat is quite correct that the power of weak lows is far, far less than storms like the GAC. We should not be making comparisons of the impacts of the GAC with these weak lows.

Many of us watched the pole cam and saw moderate sized ridges form in the summer months but they covered a small percentage of the total area in the images and didn't contribute to the amount of compaction that some posters are asserting. I think that Oren was spot on when he wrote that our measure of compaction is apparently high because extent is at a record low.

Enough said.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3496 on: July 23, 2020, 02:53:53 PM »
Reading all the messages from the last 24 hours was a real waste of time. People are debating what the september minimum will be without ever taking the weather into consideration for the remainder of the melting season. Can y'all please take the September minimum prediction debate to the appropriate thread? Then we can leave this thread for discussing the weather for the next few days and the current state of the ice. Thank you.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3497 on: July 23, 2020, 02:53:53 PM »
Friv, yeah the weather is warm, would that be considered ridging for the later part of the forecast or not high enough pressure?
However, please refrain from quasi insulting other contributors, being harsh isn’t going to make them change their minds and it’s just going to produce more drama.


The topic/discussion is/was over, moded and resolved, why adding more and more fuel to the fire that was already more or less extinguished. Most really nasty outcomes in forums come from everyone thinking he/she has to to throw in his/her own support or bashing or opinion on personal conflicts. just let it be good, everyone can lose his/her temper for once over time, no big thing and the main trigger has been modded by Oren immediately.

Alison

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3498 on: July 23, 2020, 02:56:20 PM »
Thanks for the maths Gero - appreciated

werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3499 on: July 23, 2020, 02:57:25 PM »
As posted earlier by several members. Next week tues- and wednesday will be very interesting. Low about 985 Mbar on the way 250 km N of Barrow right over the Chukchi-Beaufort Sea boundary into the CAB. Surrounded by a windfield hard to storm (6-9 Beaufort).
Not the GAC-12, nevertheless one that's going to do damage to some 1Mkm2 'compacted' ice. It lasts only two days and it may be extent will slow down. Because any grid containing +15% pack ice will be counted as extent. An ephemeral effect...
And compacted ... sure in '12 day 203 there was a vulnerable 3,6Mkm2 belt of dispersed ice circlin' the CAB, very vulnerable then. Now, it looks denser under the fog. But there's no structure left in the whole pack. Just patches of more or less attached MYI and enormous leads full of rubble. It is mobile like sand in the Sahara (hah, compelling that one).