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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3550 on: July 24, 2020, 03:21:36 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3551 on: July 24, 2020, 03:25:11 AM »
There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive .
  this update has just been patched into worldview .. between G'land and the pole .. the hue of the blue has darkened and it is easy to see water between the rubble = trouble . It looks as if even here in the bastion of ice there is no defence . Looks like only 5% of the ice here would make it through a serious assault .. the whiter blocks and specks . 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi

  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year .

  b.c.
.

This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd.

2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume
But the beaufort is gonna save us this year, right?
Oh wait... Storm coming...  :-\
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tzupancic

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3552 on: July 24, 2020, 03:52:21 AM »
Looks like events in 2020 are at an interesting point. Just a short note to list a summary of a few aspects of this complex system that would appear to drive how it behaves.

Important Elements Affecting Arctic Sea Ice Melt:

Melt season starting conditions/Sea Ice thickness, extent, and distribution

Early melt season ice conditioning/melt momentum/melt pond formation

Mid melt season solar insolation as a source of energy added to the system

Weather systems and atmospheric temperature as a source of energy added to the system

Sea Ice Concentration/Fragmentation and the effect of ice concentration on surface melt and bottom melt over time

The effect of total energy added to the system up until late July on the ice in August and September

Weather events that affect if energy in the system contacts/melts the ice.

The behavior of complex systems are difficult to understand and explain. It will be interesting to see what is learned as ongoing events are observed and analyzed.



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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3553 on: July 24, 2020, 04:18:48 AM »
Wow, these storms have been so interesting! I always stand by my claim that the more I watch the arctic the less I feel like I know about it. The reason I said about 2 pages back that I thought 2020 was going to struggle to beat 2012 was due, in part, to the extent in the Beaufort.

These storms are surprising, not in their heat, but where they are specifically hitting. They are not (at the moment), especially strong, but are hitting the few spots which were *in better condition* compared to the rest of the pack.

I still have my doubts about beating 2012, but I can't argue many of the points said earlier stating 2020 will surpass it.

There is a lot of heat in the system, moreover, there is still a week more of July plus all of August. I wish I understood more how that high pressure affected the entire system, not directly the ice.
pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3554 on: July 24, 2020, 04:45:55 AM »
There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive .
  this update has just been patched into worldview .. between G'land and the pole .. the hue of the blue has darkened and it is easy to see water between the rubble = trouble . It looks as if even here in the bastion of ice there is no defence . Looks like only 5% of the ice here would make it through a serious assault .. the whiter blocks and specks . 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi

  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year .

  b.c.
.

This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd.

2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume
But the beaufort is gonna save us this year, right?
Oh wait... Storm coming...  :-\

The Beaufort/Western CAB is ironically in freaking shambles.

The Southern CAB/central arctic,north pole,Atlantic side is in deep shit.  An absolutely wicked Southerly/SW flow over the CAA and incredible warmth plowing through the CAB/Eastern CAB/Atlantic side. 

Expect UNPRECEDENTED melt.  Expect huge areas of open water is going to develop over the next 1-2 weeks.

Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY.

BY MID AUGUST AREA WILL DROP AT RECORD PACE.


Concentration keeps dropping.   Imagine If the entire central arctic basin was clear.   

Concentration would be way lower.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3555 on: July 24, 2020, 05:15:24 AM »
Can anyone explain to me what's happening with the Bering Strait current in the Chukchi sea? Why is it flowing towards the ESS, and not towards the Beaufort sea? Has that ever happened before? Is that the reason for the slow melt in the Beaufort sea this year? And what is the consequence of that for the ESS?

Attached is a GIF that compares salinity at the surface from today with the same date in 2019. Needs a click.

And here's a visual of that current on Nullschool. It seems to be speeding up in the last few days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-179.69,69.34,3000

What's going on here? And how bad is that for the ESS?
Is Pacification of the ESS a thing now? And I'm not talking about pacifism...
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3556 on: July 24, 2020, 05:29:29 AM »
NASA Worldview also clearly shows the structural weakness of this ice by this ice blowout near FJL. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=606537.3106086026,102440.43155999202,975177.3106086026,316712.431559992&p=arctic&t=2020-07-23-T03%3A14%3A46Z We definitely are approaching the unimaginable, yet the long predicted Laxton Sea, I suppose Seymour Laxton must be turning restlessly in his coffin as his prediction nears the blue ocean state. We cannot appreciate enough him telling this (which danger few still even know). By June 2020 upward sonar soundings indicated this years melt will fuse into next years spring leading to even more complete job by the end of 2021 melt with autumn-winter storm tracks moving from North of UK all the way to south France, Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Algeria last seen in Pleistocene.

There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive. <snip> 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi
  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year.
.
This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd. 2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume
<snip>
<snip>
Expect UNPRECEDENTED melt.  Expect huge areas of open water is going to develop over the next 1-2 weeks. Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY. BY MID AUGUST AREA WILL DROP AT RECORD PACE. Concentration keeps dropping. Imagine If the entire central arctic basin was clear. Concentration would be way lower.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 05:39:48 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3557 on: July 24, 2020, 05:34:44 AM »
...
Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY.
...
Small talk, Friv. Hell small talk!

Never before seen melt IN ALL DARN BILLIONS OF YEARS EARTH EXISTED!!!

That's what it is, man. When we say "in human history", it's like "oh well geologically human history is just a tiny blip of geological past, and this probably happened some time before human history began" impression.

Wrong impression.

All the data i know of about geological past has no such rapid ice ice loss ever discovered / described. And one particularly well made research about it which i can recommend - is this quite recent one. It plainly states, quote (my bold):

"That means, sea‐ice conditions similar to those reconstructed for the late Miocene may occur in about 2–3 decades. Although the sea‐ice conditions might be similar, however, the rate of change was quite different between both situations. Whereas the recent change from a permanent to a seasonal central Arctic Ocean sea‐ice cover (strongly driven by anthropogenic forcing; cf. Notz & Stroeve, 2016) proceeds over a few decades, the corresponding past (natural) change probably occurred over thousands of years".

We are truly witnessing our planet going through a sort of fever it never before suffered, gentlemen. Ever.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3558 on: July 24, 2020, 05:44:55 AM »
Can anyone explain to me what's happening with the Bering Strait current in the Chukchi sea? Why is it flowing towards the ESS, and not towards the Beaufort sea? Has that ever happened before? Is that the reason for the slow melt in the Beaufort sea this year? And what is the consequence of that for the ESS?

Attached is a GIF that compares salinity at the surface from today with the same date in 2019. Needs a click.

And here's a visual of that current on Nullschool. It seems to be speeding up in the last few days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-179.69,69.34,3000

What's going on here? And how bad is that for the ESS?
Is Pacification of the ESS a thing now? And I'm not talking about pacifism...

Fantastic bit of data, thx.  Not to say your question is not important but the elephant in the room is the giant burst of Atlantic salinity in the Laptev, hmmm, and severe Atlantification generally in these images.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3559 on: July 24, 2020, 05:53:28 AM »
Can anyone explain to me what's happening with the Bering Strait current in the Chukchi sea? Why is it flowing towards the ESS, and not towards the Beaufort sea? Has that ever happened before? Is that the reason for the slow melt in the Beaufort sea this year? And what is the consequence of that for the ESS?

Attached is a GIF that compares salinity at the surface from today with the same date in 2019. Needs a click.

And here's a visual of that current on Nullschool. It seems to be speeding up in the last few days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-179.69,69.34,3000

What's going on here? And how bad is that for the ESS?
Is Pacification of the ESS a thing now? And I'm not talking about pacifism...

I think your post is highly significant FG!!!  Can you get prior years of this salinity data in a sequence?  The Atlantic front looks just TERRIFYING!  It would be important to see if this is the beginning of a “sea change” as it were!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3560 on: July 24, 2020, 06:02:32 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.

Although the warmest area is seeing major open water at this point.

Expect the Beaufort to mostly melt out
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Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3561 on: July 24, 2020, 06:22:08 AM »

Expect UNPRECEDENTED melt.  Expect huge areas of open water is going to develop over the next 1-2 weeks.

Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY.

BY MID AUGUST AREA WILL DROP AT RECORD PACE.

It is finally time to bring back Hyperion!!! 💥💥💥

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3562 on: July 24, 2020, 06:23:30 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.

Although the warmest area is seeing major open water at this point.

Expect the Beaufort to mostly melt out

The CAA has appeared to almost 'flash melt' in a few of the smaller channels...I really want to know how this is going to worsen the mega crack
pls!

Gumbercules

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3563 on: July 24, 2020, 06:23:56 AM »
...
Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY.
...
Small talk, Friv. Hell small talk!

Never before seen melt IN ALL DARN BILLIONS OF YEARS EARTH EXISTED!!!

That's what it is, man. When we say "in human history", it's like "oh well geologically human history is just a tiny blip of geological past, and this probably happened some time before human history began" impression.

Wrong impression.

All the data i know of about geological past has no such rapid ice ice loss ever discovered / described. And one particularly well made research about it which i can recommend - is this quite recent one. It plainly states, quote (my bold):

"That means, sea‐ice conditions similar to those reconstructed for the late Miocene may occur in about 2–3 decades. Although the sea‐ice conditions might be similar, however, the rate of change was quite different between both situations. Whereas the recent change from a permanent to a seasonal central Arctic Ocean sea‐ice cover (strongly driven by anthropogenic forcing; cf. Notz & Stroeve, 2016) proceeds over a few decades, the corresponding past (natural) change probably occurred over thousands of years".

We are truly witnessing our planet going through a sort of fever it never before suffered, gentlemen. Ever.

Have you heard of Meltwater Pulse 1a and 1b?

There was extreme melt around 14,000 years ago and again 11,500 years ago. Enough to  very likely severely disrupt human civilization at the time, and may have been involved in the extinction of numerous large animals in North America.

From wikipedia:
"During meltwater pulse 1A, sea level is estimated to have risen at a rate of 40–60 mm (0.13–0.20 ft)/yr.[1] This rate of sea level rise was much larger than the rate of current sea level rise, which has been estimated to be in the region of 2–3 mm (0.0066–0.0098 ft)/yr."

"They concluded that meltwater pulse 1B occurred between 11,500 and 11,200 calendar years ago, a 300-calendar year interval, during which sea level rose 13 meters (43 ft) from −58 meters (−190 ft) to −45 meters (−148 ft), giving a mean annual rate of around 40mm/yr[7] Other studies have revised the estimated magnitude of meltwater pulse 1B downward to between 7.5 meters (25 ft) and less than 6 meters (20 ft).[2][8]"

<This has gone waaaay off-topic. Please no more discussion of far-past history. O>
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 09:23:13 AM by oren »

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3564 on: July 24, 2020, 06:45:06 AM »
ESS, July 20th to 24th. What looked 'quite" solid four days ago, looks awful today. Ouch! (Needs a click to run)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3565 on: July 24, 2020, 06:50:12 AM »
Can anyone explain to me what's happening with the Bering Strait current in the Chukchi sea? Why is it flowing towards the ESS, and not towards the Beaufort sea? Has that ever happened before? Is that the reason for the slow melt in the Beaufort sea this year? And what is the consequence of that for the ESS?

Attached is a GIF that compares salinity at the surface from today with the same date in 2019. Needs a click.

And here's a visual of that current on Nullschool. It seems to be speeding up in the last few days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-179.69,69.34,3000

What's going on here? And how bad is that for the ESS?
Is Pacification of the ESS a thing now? And I'm not talking about pacifism...

I think your post is highly significant FG!!!  Can you get prior years of this salinity data in a sequence?  The Atlantic front looks just TERRIFYING!  It would be important to see if this is the beginning of a “sea change” as it were!
I think Uniquorn is more qualified to talk about salinity and atlantification ATT, which he does in this salinity thread. The data I posted I found here, and only goes back one year.

My point of focus for this year was the increased speed of the Bering strait current. I thought it would penetrate deeper into the CAB, but now it seems it's going into the ESS, and I have no idea why. Maybe an increase in speed is the reason for that turn? I don't know.

The reason I posted this question here is because I saw low salinity in the beaufort, and thought this could help explain the 2020 Beaufort enigma.

The reason why the Laptev is more salty at the surface could be because it's been ice free for a while now, and wave action probably brought that salt to the surface? But I think that's off topic here. Better to discuss this in the salinity thread.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3566 on: July 24, 2020, 06:57:03 AM »
ESS, July 20th to 24th. What looked 'quite" solid four days ago, looks awful today. Ouch! (Needs a click to run)
this is happening all over the arctic basin.

We are all sooooooo used to the ice compacting at a rate slightly above straight insitu melt out.

However this summer has been so consistently warm + the major mid May unbelievably sunny and warm mega ridge giving us perfect preconditioning all ove

OH my God the CAA is getting utterly SUPER MEGA INFERNO BLOW TORCH.

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3567 on: July 24, 2020, 07:01:32 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.
I don't think that's the only reason Friv. I think a slowdown of the gyre and thicker ice may have something to do with this as well. And then I saw the low sality...

But as you all know by now, I'm just a fat guy with a computer, so I'm gonna shut up now and leave it up to the specialists.  :-X
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3568 on: July 24, 2020, 07:06:38 AM »

Words required?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3569 on: July 24, 2020, 07:17:14 AM »
Holy #$@#.

Tomorrow the CAA gets nutty WAA and Winds.
The NW Passage is looking at 25-35km/he sustainable southerly winds with 35-45 km/he gusts.

With 20C+ temps on the southern side and 15C+ on the North side

This lasts for 2 days before temps return from near record warm to well above normal.

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Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3570 on: July 24, 2020, 07:17:47 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.
I don't think that's the only reason Friv. I think a slowdown of the gyre and thicker ice may have something to do with this as well. And then I saw the low sality...

But as you all know by now, I'm just a fat guy with a computer, so I'm gonna shut up now and leave it up to the specialists.  :-X

There is always a little bit of a chicken or the egg argument when taking about more ice and lower temperatures and less ice and higher temperatures (eg. has the extra ice caused the temps to be lower, or have lower temps caused the extra ice).

In any event, there is no doubt that thick ice from north of the CAA has been moving westward into the Beaufort this summer. I share the same concerns as many others that the extra extent in the Beaufort is about to take a nose dive.  If that happens, I completely agree with Friv that we will see a new record. 

However, it is still early and August can sometimes put the brakes on melting. 

I am anxious to see what happens. Most people would never understand our fascination with watching ice melt, but I have found this melt season to be very interesting to watch so far!
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 07:33:16 AM by Rod »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3571 on: July 24, 2020, 07:34:37 AM »
Holy #$@#.

Tomorrow the CAA gets nutty WAA and Winds.
The NW Passage is looking at 25-35km/he sustainable southerly winds with 35-45 km/he gusts.

With 20C+ temps on the southern side and 15C+ on the North side

This lasts for 2 days before temps return from near record warm to well above normal.

Expect the NW Passage ice to completely shatter over the next few days.

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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3572 on: July 24, 2020, 08:59:36 AM »
I thought it would penetrate deeper into the CAB, but now it seems it's going into the ESS

It follows the direction of the wind direction we had due to the GAAC. This, IMHO, tells us that the HP caused a clockwise ocean movement here. Maybe an answer to the question of why the Beauford has seen less melt as well.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3573 on: July 24, 2020, 09:13:44 AM »
The white area retreated almost to the 2012 low.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3574 on: July 24, 2020, 09:24:38 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Large Gif!
Thanks for this. Shows the roasting of the CAA perfectly. Simply ON FIRE.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3575 on: July 24, 2020, 09:34:39 AM »
Beaufort Low now predicted sub 980 to 977 on 4 day forecast. Can it forecast lower in the next 24hours? If so looks like a real good churning with high ridging and nullschool showing persistent wind speeds of 40 - 47kmph winds.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3576 on: July 24, 2020, 09:58:21 AM »
M'Clure Strait fast ice has completely broken up, though still not moving much. (Ice in the image is 200-250km long)
Click and click again to zoom.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3577 on: July 24, 2020, 10:18:43 AM »
The 00z euro has one important theme. 

Where is the cold?

Pretty damn warm considering the set up

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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3578 on: July 24, 2020, 10:25:52 AM »
Two important long-term charts posted by Wipneus in the PIOMAS thread provide important pieces of information, at least for those who follow the model's output and use it to form expectations about the melting season:
* 2020's higher area on July 16th over 2012 and 2019 was composed only of very thin ice, 0-26cm thick.
* 2020 is lowest on the date for ice thicker than 26cm, and for ice thicker than 71cm. (The ice >71cm is typically correlated with the area surviving in early September).
* 2020's higher volume on July 16th over 2012 and 2019 was only in the thickest ice categories, >4.2m. (PIOMAS models pressure ridges, this is not regular ice).

The conclusions that can be drawn, assuming the model is correct, are that 2020 has a strong potential to become lowest in area (it already did a week later... but the data means it can easily stay there), and that the higher volume will not be a buffer against area and extent records, although it could be a buffer delaying a volume record as calculated by the model. (The advantage is not strong enough to prevent a volume record by itself).

p.s. The charts are aggregate, each category of >X includes the higher categories >>X as well.




Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3579 on: July 24, 2020, 10:40:26 AM »
Thanks Oren and ofc Wipneus for that! Very informative charts. If we translate the 0.71m boundary to a map, where will the sea ice likely survive this melt season?

And what happened during 2000? We are used to talk about 2007 as a game changer for the sea ice but 2000? Not a melting year that has anchored in my mind so to say.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3580 on: July 24, 2020, 10:45:53 AM »
Click to animate the 00z euro

For there being a vortex the cold/cool pool is very small
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3581 on: July 24, 2020, 10:52:28 AM »
Click to animate the 00z euro

For there being a vortex the cold/cool pool is very small

Will BOE possible?

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3582 on: July 24, 2020, 11:01:02 AM »
Click to animate the 00z euro

For there being a vortex the cold/cool pool is very small

Will BOE possible?

It is always possible, but unlikely this year, if we break the 2012 record this year and have a warm winter and very low maximum, a BOE next year could happen!
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 11:58:00 AM by glennbuck »

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3583 on: July 24, 2020, 11:26:16 AM »
Zack Labe
@ZLabe
·
14h
I've had many requests for graphs with y-axis limits of 0 (sighs), so here you go...

July 2020 has been a historic month for #Arctic climate.


OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3584 on: July 24, 2020, 11:32:07 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.
I don't think that's the only reason Friv. I think a slowdown of the gyre and thicker ice may have something to do with this as well. And then I saw the low sality...

But as you all know by now, I'm just a fat guy with a computer, so I'm gonna shut up now and leave it up to the specialists.  :-X
It certainly is not the reason. Clickon this animation of the last ten days of the furious pace of discharge from the central arctic sea into the Beaufort, both down the CAA coast, and also clearly visible the motion towards the Chukchi of the fragmented and low concentration central Beaufort.
The Irminger current historically used to turn south below Greenland and dip around Greenland before merging with the Labrador and heading south.
As pictured. Last ten years Its been turning south further north near Svalbard. Now last year, and even more this it has decided to go over the top of Greenland, and this year, not even satisfied by colonising the CAA, and Aided by the Beaufort clockwise gyre being closer to Mckenzie Bay,  it has stopped the Alaskan coastal current, heading east from Bering,  or at least pushed it under to flood the central Beaufort.
As you are seeing some is also going along the siberian coast.
It should be no surprise with this going on that the Beaufort, Chukchi and north of Greenland are about to catastrophically crash, along with the CAA. Particularly if the sub 980 low forecast in the Beaufort appears in a few days as forecast.
Click on Hycom thickness and concentration animations to see whats been and about to happen.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3585 on: July 24, 2020, 11:32:12 AM »
 :o

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3586 on: July 24, 2020, 01:22:03 PM »
:o
Yes, that's the horrific one. Maybe the proper scientists attribute this to some specific element of the climate system. Laptev has had methane seeping out now for couple of years, this year Western Siberia has been very warm (hot even) , there are no contrails due CoViD-19 to block the sun, permafrost melting has been increasing rather steadily... Plenty of factors all seem to coverge this year on Laptev Sea.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3587 on: July 24, 2020, 01:24:05 PM »
:o

The very fast Laptev retreat has certainly caught me out this summer. I had a very strong feeling we were going to have a quick retreat in the ESS like in 2007 and 2017 but at least those years had the Laptev ice holding on.

Bit of a lower drop today but not too low. I do think the irony would be whilst a sharp slow down would look better for the extent numbers, I do actually think it could be worse for the ice longer term and a more slower steadier decline would be better for the ice however I do think we are so low, its just going to be near impossible to stay above 4 million and at least 2nd lowest is very likely.

Will be interesting how the Beaufort possibly deep low affects the ice there, it is getting more diffused but I suspect there is a mix of large ice floes in there so extent wise I don't think a deep low would be damaging but will it diffuse the ice up even more? Of course even at this stage its not guaranteed it will be a deep low and I'm sure we will see more variations in the upcoming runs.

PMT - Why can't we not assosicate the Laptev retreat by saying its all down to the weather and ice thickness? Lack of real ice thickness during the winter and a hot June followed by near persistent southerly winds in July has caused the huge ice loss? And let's include record Siberian snowcover retreat also. Its just simply the weather in a ever warming world.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 01:29:33 PM by Paul »

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3588 on: July 24, 2020, 01:44:35 PM »
+2 C Arctic today!


liefde

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3589 on: July 24, 2020, 02:04:19 PM »
We are truly witnessing our planet going through a sort of fever it never before suffered, gentlemen. Ever.
I want to stress that it is by no means a 'surprise' or 'exceptional', it is simply what happens if your planet accumulates heat at a rate of 4 Hiroshima bomb detonations worth of energy every second. In previous periods on Earth, without humans, the Sun's energy could escape to cold space. Now we have a growing blanket of heat-trapping gases keeping that energy inside. It really annoys me how there are still deniers that don't seem to understand this basic principle. It's a hothouse, and human civ is a heat engine. 2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume, I don't think there's much doubt it will.
Also, people in my personal life didn't even really know that the entire Arctic circle has 24 hours of sunlight now. If the ice is gone, that sunlight will heat up the sea surface.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3590 on: July 24, 2020, 02:09:54 PM »
:o

The very fast Laptev retreat has certainly caught me out this summer. I had a very strong feeling we were going to have a quick retreat in the ESS like in 2007 and 2017 but at least those years had the Laptev ice holding

PMT - Why can't we not assosicate the Laptev retreat by saying its all down to the weather and ice thickness? Lack of real ice thickness during the winter and a hot June followed by near persistent southerly winds in July has caused the huge ice loss? And let's include record Siberian snowcover retreat also. Its just simply the weather in a ever warming world.
Weather is the easy answer, yes. It looks to me some elements of humanity need more concrete binding to our activities to believe humans can change the climate, though the answer would be obvious to any gardener building cosy spots to plants not tolerating cold, so f.e. if it can be shown the cessation of intercontinental flights had an effect on the severity of the heat wave in the region, some might change their mind. Not that it is likely, but maybe. Aerosol sprays have been proposed as a geoengineering option so these people might be interested anyway. Not that it would much effect the overall trends.

This is becoming a surprisingly active season in sea ice loss.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3591 on: July 24, 2020, 02:46:32 PM »
No surprise to some ..

  today WV reveals the crack/shear zones are opening up across the pole .. 90'N is no longer a haven . Ocean is becoming visible everywhere I look . If only I could see the slowdown others can .. to me it looks like the accelerator is stuck . Another 1-1.5 million by months end ?
 yesterday I noticed the clouds near the pole were casting their shadows some 10km+ away .. sun angle already rather low .. perfect time for the weather to become disturbed just as the sun's active role diminishes . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3592 on: July 24, 2020, 03:09:41 PM »
2012- 23rd JULY VS 2020 23rd JULY

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3593 on: July 24, 2020, 03:10:59 PM »

bill kapra

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3594 on: July 24, 2020, 03:22:16 PM »

It certainly is not the reason. Clickon this animation of the last ten days of the furious pace of discharge from the central arctic sea into the Beaufort, both down the CAA coast, and also clearly visible the motion towards the Chukchi of the fragmented and low concentration central Beaufort.
The Irminger current historically used to turn south below Greenland and dip around Greenland before merging with the Labrador and heading south.
As pictured. Last ten years Its been turning south further north near Svalbard. Now last year, and even more this it has decided to go over the top of Greenland, and this year, not even satisfied by colonising the CAA, and Aided by the Beaufort clockwise gyre being closer to Mckenzie Bay,  it has stopped the Alaskan coastal current, heading east from Bering,  or at least pushed it under to flood the central Beaufort.
As you are seeing some is also going along the siberian coast.

Could this shift have an impact on the AMOC’s northern branch or is the current too relatively small to have a substantial effect?

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3595 on: July 24, 2020, 03:38:41 PM »
The thick ice that originated north of Greenland and is now swirling around in the Lincoln Sea is debating whether to be sucked down the Nares or not. My bet is on a yes.
Click.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3596 on: July 24, 2020, 03:50:59 PM »
The thick ice that originated north of Greenland and is now swirling around in the Lincoln Sea is debating whether to be sucked down the Nares or not. My bet is on a yes.
Click.
In 36 to 48 hours or so from now the wind will reverse there, moving that ice back north. So will that big floe ever reach the strait? And will it block it?  :-\

I'm really upset with the weather right now. I was so getting used to a clear view on the ice that I'm getting really pissed off at all those clouds right now...  ;D
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3597 on: July 24, 2020, 03:58:39 PM »
What are the chances of an ice-free northern Greenland coast? When I look at this HYCOM graphic it surely seems possible if all the purple melts out.

Edit: also, I don't see the  beaufort gyre spinning.  :-\
Edit2: It also seems like the next big drop might be coming from the Greenland sea. That ice there is getting mighty thin.

Wow that's big. Did the forum settings change again?

« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 04:17:34 PM by Freegrass »
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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3598 on: July 24, 2020, 04:06:53 PM »
I think it is becoming obvious we may push below 2.5M in extent this year. Or even 2M. 2012 was 3.18M. Is a 1.2M differential really that inconceivable when we are already past 900K?

If the weather forecast verifies (GFS / CMC / ECMWF now ALL in consensus re: simultaneous revival of GAAC over ATL front + GAC in Beaufort / Chukchi), there is a not-insignificant chance we end July below 5M KM^2 in extent.

For reference, 2012 was at 6.03M KM^2 as of 8/2. Yesterday's JAXA reading was 6.05M KM^2. Ten days ahead of 2012 at a time of year when that 10 days is a HUGE amount of insolation absorbed by peripheral seas (and the gap has been huge the entire month).....

The situation above Greenland is extremely concerning. I do believe EOSDIS validates HYCOM's predicted thickness / concentration situation there, which also may spiral to near 0. To my eyes, it looks like the entire pack east of the Lomonosov Ridge is now in dispersion / destruction mode and very little will survive into the minimum, if any at all. If such an event does occur coupled with a major low pressure event, there is now a distinct possibility that this season is going to permanently alter the stabillity of the CAB's halocline, and it could extend the ATL front all the way to the Lomonosov Ridge through most of the fall if melt-out does occur... resulting in an ABYSMAL refreeze of the CAB in particular, such a situation would possibly see the CAB transition to the equivalent state of the peripheral seas in the course of a single summer (!)

<Deleted speculation of what happens after the melting season. O>
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 08:07:35 PM by oren »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3599 on: July 24, 2020, 04:33:29 PM »
Greenland fast ice breaking up.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 08:12:13 PM by Freegrass »
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