There was a bit of a discussion yesterday about Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) . Here is some further speculation.
I attach graphs of accumulated AWP anomalies from NICO Sun 's website
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.
It is high, close to the 2016 and 2019 values.
This is potential, not actual, energy being applied to and absorbed by the surface of the Arctic Seas. However, the GAAC during a period of high insolation giving more than usual clear skies surely means that
actual energy applied to the ocean surface was higher than usual. .
The last graph has the cumulative AWP potential of each sea. The Kara Sea AWP is through the roof. With clearer skies than usual, surely it is no wonder SST's are so high in that sea.
Perhaps there is momentum for further melting simply because of high energy absorption in the last month or so.
Wouldn't it be marvellous if the data on clouds and its effect on insolation reaching the surface was good enough to produce Albedo Warming Actuality.______________________
ps: Nico Sun has documented everything he has produced at
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.htmlHere is his explanation of the AWP calculation
The Albedo-Warming Potential (AWP) quantifies the additional ocean warming from a lower ice cover at the poles. These calculations don't include cloud cover, therefore it is called "Warming Potential" and not actual warming. However, over the six-month period weather tends to average out and warm areas correlate well with low ice extent in September. The basis of all calculations is a global surface radiation model and NSIDC Sea Ice Concentration data.
Formula per gridcell
AWP Daily = ((1-SIC) * MJ) + 0.15 * MJ * SIC
AWP Accumulated = sum(AWPdaily)
MJ = incoming surface radiation per square meter
SIC = Sea Ice Concentration
The calculated values are arithmetic averages over the whole maximum possible ice extent (shown in light blue). All lakes and some marginal seas (Baltic Sea, Gulf of St. Lawrence) are not considered because their coastline to total area ratio is too high. Coastline measurement errors introduce just random noise.