After looking at the GFS July 25 18Z forecast, two things jump out that no one has commented on that may be significant.
1. It looks like the low pressure on the Pacific side and the moderate but not trivial high pressure on the Atlantic side is creating a sustained reversed-Arctic transport wind field moving already fractured ice toward the Laptev Sea where the high surface temperature is an ice killing zone. The wind speeds are not that high, mostly below 15 knots, but they are persistent. I don't know how much ice and how far the ice will actually move, but it could be one more negative influence to bleed out CAB ice. If signficant, the Laptev bite may not have to reach the North Pole ice, that ice may come out to meet the Laptev bite halfway.
2. Some of the surface heat in the CAA - Greenland - North Pole triangle is from a 2.5 day period of clear sky extending right up to the pole. Looking at the surface insolation chart, even late July is still close enough to solstice for that to be another significant dagger into the heart of the CAB. Thus, energy that does not even show up as changing the temperature will be going into melting ice. The triangle used to be home to some of the thickest toughest multiyear ice. The ice that remains there this September could be a remnant Extent with none of those other qualitative characteristics.
Pale, light blue = clear sky over ice. Dark blue = clear sky over water.
Green - rain, "Aqua-blue" = snow.
With only 6 years as an Arctic voyeur, I don't know enough to be apocalyptic, but FWIW in addition to what we are hearing from the old hands on deck, add one more "Holy Cow, I've never seen anything like 2020". After all the melt season conditioning this year, if these forecasts verify the cumulative effect of the different Arctic regional weather events looks to be in the same league as the GAC2012.
No, the low pressure system is not as intense or as long lasting as GAC2012, but this Arctic-wide scenario has someting going on just about everywhere: cyclone in the already fractured Beaufort, unprecedented subsurface heat in the Beaufort, roasting top down heat in the CAA, clear sky and heat in the heart of the CAB triangle, extensive and intensive heat across the entire Atlantic front. All this happening to ice that has been softened up by May melt pond set up, and extended periods of heat and clear sky in June and July. So the widespread melt pressure is going onto ice with far below normal resistance.
Thus the cumulative effect looks equally as significant as the GAC2012. If I'm wrong, let me know. That's how I learn.