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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3700 on: July 26, 2020, 12:49:07 AM »
Yossarian, the location of this low is very bad for the ice because it will pull continental heat over the pole while concentrating dispersion at the ice edge in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. The ice dispersion will be in the location where it can inflict the most melting. That Beaufort and Chukchi ice has ocean heat under it and we're not talking about 300m down, either. We're talking about heat that's pretty close to the surface, in the top 100m of the ocean.

This moderately strong storm is positioned to do some damage.

Shit!!!  In many places over the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and  far Western CAB that river of sub-surface heat is as shallow as 40-50M sub-surface.  With wind gusts reaching 45-50KTs those can easily overturn water down to 75M below the SURFACE.  Even modest mixing into this later is checkmate. 

The other most important checkmate is the date:. July 25th 2020.

So much time to go and because of

THERMAL INERTIA....

THE LAND AND OCEAN ARE REACHING PEAK HEATING BETWEEN NOW AND MID AUGUST

ALSO THE LOWERED ALBEDO BETWEEN 78-90N will most definitely help extend the impact of solar insolation but only slightly since SOLAR ALTITUDE CANNOT BE OVER COME BY SURFACE CONDITIONS AT A CERTAIN POINT

IN RECENT YEARS AND 2008/10 WE SAW DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION REEK HAVOK ON THE ICE BETWEEN 70-77N BETWEEN AUG 15-SEPT 1ST....





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Viggy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3701 on: July 26, 2020, 01:30:56 AM »
Made a JAXA extent forecast of 2 - 2.5M in early July and I'm doubling down on it. These conditions are ridiculous and the model runs show a lower and lower low as the event approaches.

This upcoming week is incredibly active globally!

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3702 on: July 26, 2020, 01:33:01 AM »
A look at one small part of the CAA, south of King William Island, over the last week. This is one of the southern most parts of the CAA.

July 18 - July 25. Click to play.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3703 on: July 26, 2020, 01:42:40 AM »


EDIT:. RESOLUTE IS NOW 19C with a 10.5C DP and SE WINDS OF 22KM/HR!!

THAT'S SILLY... ITS CLOUDY NOW.  BUT ID BET THE NW PAGE PASSAGE ICE STRAIGHT SHATTERS AND STARTS TO DECINTEGRATE.

Yeah, the temps up there have been remarkable since about late June. This is the hottest wave yet.


It's remarkable.  The average high in RESOLUTE is 7C average low is 2C.

Todays high of 20C was 5C above the previous record and 13C above normal. 

Resolute is on the coast of the passage

Even tho winds are running 22-28km/he out of the SE/ESE I am assuming there is a coastal inversion preventing that insane warmth from mixing down to the ice

Those conditions would cause 20-30CM a day+ in theory???
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3704 on: July 26, 2020, 02:23:10 AM »
One see thing I've noticed on the euro from last night and today the vortex while strong...iirc it drops under 975mb for a short time.

The question is...

WHERE IS THE COLD???

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE REGION IS VERY WARM EXCEPT DIRECTLY UNDER THE CORE.

I think some factors are behind this. The time of year, late July and upto early August are probably most likely to be the warmest time for the polar regions. Even so, with low thicknesses, you would expect colder uppers and no doubt 30 years ago, that would be the case.

I do think another factor is how deep the low is, a shallower low thicknesses low pressure cell is likely to develop a colder pool because there is not much wind. I don't think it matters too much on the upper air temperatures as the temperatures at ice level are unlikely to be any real difference but I might be wrong on this?

One thing I have noticed is the models are hinting the low could stall in more or less the same place for a couple of days before perhaps moving towards the CAA and Greenland but no doubt the models are firming up its going to be deep depression. Impacts on the ice will soon be known.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3705 on: July 26, 2020, 03:23:45 AM »
      After looking at the GFS July 25 18Z forecast, two things jump out that no one has commented on that may be significant. 
 
1.  It looks like the low pressure on the Pacific side and the moderate but not trivial high pressure on the Atlantic side is creating a sustained reversed-Arctic transport wind field moving already fractured ice toward the Laptev Sea where the high surface temperature is an ice killing zone.  The wind speeds are not that high, mostly below 15 knots, but they are persistent.  I don't know how much ice and how far the ice will actually move, but it could be one more negative influence to bleed out CAB ice.   If signficant, the Laptev bite may not have to reach the North Pole ice, that ice may come out to meet the Laptev bite halfway.




2.  Some of the surface heat in the CAA - Greenland - North Pole triangle is from a 2.5 day period of clear sky extending right up to the pole.  Looking at the surface insolation chart, even late July is still close enough to solstice for that to be another significant dagger into the heart of the CAB.  Thus, energy that does not even show up as changing the temperature will be going into melting ice. The triangle used to be home to some of the thickest toughest multiyear ice.  The ice that remains there this September could be a remnant Extent with none of those other qualitative characteristics.   


Pale, light blue = clear sky over ice.  Dark blue = clear sky over water. 
Green - rain, "Aqua-blue" = snow.

    With only 6 years as an Arctic voyeur, I don't know enough to be apocalyptic, but FWIW in addition to what we are hearing from the old hands on deck, add one more "Holy Cow, I've never seen anything like 2020".  After all the melt season conditioning this year, if these forecasts verify the cumulative effect of the different Arctic regional weather events looks to be in the same league as the GAC2012. 

    No, the low pressure system is not as intense or as long lasting as GAC2012, but this Arctic-wide scenario has someting going on just about everywhere: cyclone in the already fractured Beaufort, unprecedented subsurface heat in the Beaufort, roasting top down heat in the CAA, clear sky and heat in the heart of the CAB triangle, extensive and intensive heat across the entire Atlantic front.  All this happening to ice that has been softened up by May melt pond set up, and extended periods of heat and clear sky in June and July.  So the widespread melt pressure is going onto ice with far below normal resistance.

     Thus the cumulative effect looks equally as significant as the GAC2012.  If I'm wrong, let me know.  That's how I learn.   
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 09:01:58 PM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3706 on: July 26, 2020, 04:50:34 AM »
      After looking at the GFS July 25 18Z forecast, two things jump out that no one has commented on that may be significant. 
 
1.  It looks like the low pressure on the Pacific side and the moderate but not trivial high pressure on the Atlantic side is creating a sustained reversed-Arctic transport wind field moving already fractured ice toward the Laptev Sea where the high surface temperature is an ice killing zone.  The wind speeds are not that high, mostly below 15 knots, but they are persistent.  I don't know how much ice and how far the ice will actually move, but it could e one more negative influence to bleed out CAB ice.   If signficant, the Laptev bite may not have to reach the North Pole ice, that ice may come out to meet the Laptev bite halfway.




2.  Some of the surface heat in the CAA - Greenland - North Pole triangle is from a 2.5 day period of clear sky extending right up to the pole.  Looking at the surface insolation chart, even late July is still close enough to solstice for that to be another significant dagger into the heart of the CAB.  Thus, energy that does not even show up as changing the temperature will be going into melting ice. The triangle used to be home to some of the thickest toughest multiyear ice.  The ice that remains there this September could be a remnant Extent with none of those other qualitative characteristics.   


Pale, light blue = clear sky over ice.  Dark blue = clear sky over water. 
Green - rain, "Aqua-blue" = snow.

    With only 6-8 years as an Arctic voyeur, I don't know enough to be apocalyptic, but FWIW in addition to what we are hearing from the old hands on deck, add one more "Holy Cow, I've never seen anything like 2020".  After all the melt season conditioning this year, if these forecasts verify the cumulative effect of the different Arctic regional weather events looks to be in the same league as the GAC2012. 

    No, the low pressure system is not as intense or as long lasting as GAC2012, but this Arctic-wide scenario has someting going on just about everywhere: cyclone in the already fractured Beaufort, unprecedented subsurface heat in the Beaufort, roasting top down heat in the CAA, clear sky and heat in the heart of the CAB triangle, extensive and intensive heat across the entire Atlantic front.  All this happening to ice that has been softened up by May melt pond set up, and extended periods of heat and clear sky in June and July.  So the widespread melt pressure is going onto ice with far below normal resistance.

     Thus the cumulative effect looks equally as significant as the GAC2012.  If I'm wrong, let me know.  That's how I learn.

These are great insights.

That sunny triangle is quite important.
We are at the very end of the INSOLATION period for 80-90N so soaking up another few days of insolation will take off a few more CM of ice. 

The other noticible thing on those forecast graphics is the warmed surface to near surface temps from land and downsloping.  This year is rivaling 2011 in that area if not beating it.

That is so bad for the old Southern CAB ice. 

Paul is right about the vortex being compact and that it likely keeping a small deep cloud cyclonic regime limiting the cooling.... Instead of the large broad weak vortex regimes we often see in summer that develops a large cold pool with -5 to -8C 850mb temps.

This could become an issue if say after the vortex a dipole anomaly develops.  With a tiny weak cold pool the warm air advection from the dipole could become established immediately.

WDMN--

So glad you posted that.  I almost made that animation myself.

Pretty amazing how fast that solid ice straight craps out.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3707 on: July 26, 2020, 05:34:15 AM »
Based upon what is currently happening, I think it is interesting to look back at a map discussed earlier this year. 

It seems like ages ago that we were talking about the May PIOMAS thickness map.

As we talked about earlier this year, the predicted thickest ice was located in precarious positions. After two months of weather, it is as bad as we feared.

The anomalously thick ice that we had earlier this season along the Atlantic front has been destroyed.

The anomalously thick ice in the Beaufort and north of the CAA has not yet been destroyed. However, it was that thick ice that has helped the Beaufort so far this season. That ice has been slowly melting. It is doubtful it is very thick anymore. 

Now, it is going to get hammered by a low for a few days.  Much of it will melt out.

It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

miki

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3708 on: July 26, 2020, 05:41:52 AM »
It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

Can you post an updated thickness map? Or, where can I find it? Thanks a lot.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3709 on: July 26, 2020, 05:50:18 AM »
it continues to be the case that the worst forecasts are the ones that are realized .. even the 977 lows in various forecast weren't the worst thing for the ice .. but now as insolation declines and the pack opens up , here comes a mini- monster to stir things up . Lots of heat and a deep low .. oh .... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3710 on: July 26, 2020, 05:53:33 AM »
For those who haven't seen what happened in 2011.  2011 had a couple major CAA/Southern CAB blowtorches.

As we can see the CAB lost 2.5-3M of ice over a lot of area.  Remember Southern CAB ice thickens up through most of May.  Well it's supposed to.

Anyways 2011 was saved by a huge weather Regine shift at the end of July that predominantly lasted through August.

 The CAB this season has taken an even worse beating.  This is why many of us old timers are very sure that insitu melt will become overwhelming throughout the CAB
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3711 on: July 26, 2020, 06:16:04 AM »
It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

Can you post an updated thickness map? Or, where can I find it? Thanks a lot.

Below is the map from June. These maps are prepared by the University of Washington Polar Science Center.  The July map is not out yet. They do not produce daily maps. They produce monthly composites based on the PIOMAS results for each month.

There is also a PIOMAS thread in the ASIF that provides a lot of useful information.   
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 06:33:33 AM by Rod »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3712 on: July 26, 2020, 06:44:45 AM »
It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

Can you post an updated thickness map? Or, where can I find it? Thanks a lot.

Below is the map from June. These maps are prepared by the University of Washington Polar Science Center.  They do not produce daily maps. They produce monthly composites based on the PIOMAS results for each month.

There is also a PIOMAS thread in the ASIF that provides a lot of useful information.

That is going  to require a huge course correction.   

That graphic  it's wholly inaccurate. 

1. The Atlantic  side where it says had ice 1-1.5M above normal(the recent normal,  not the 1970s-90s) has melted out.

That's most likely that piomas modeled it way to thick. 

2. The super thick areas above GIS and the CAA both have destroyed floes and open water. 

You know what... we have talked about this to much.   Let's just compare in Sept.

The only thing I'll say is the guys who created piomas have done so on a very limited budget and I want to thank them for their contributions to this science.



In real time news... the GFS goes back to big ridge after the vortex weakens And merges with the GIS vortex.

Funny, 2020 is destined.

The Atlantic side is really getting gutted to the pole if not further
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P-maker

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3713 on: July 26, 2020, 06:48:09 AM »
Just noticed the huge contrast between this June map showing thick ice around Svalbard one month ago and yesterday's news about a new all-time temperature record of 21.7C for Longyearbyen ( see https://www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnmark/slo-41-ar-gammel-varmerekord-pa-svalbard-1.15100814 - in Norwegian). Half way down the news article, there is a short video clip showing muddy meltwaters from the local glaciers. The albedo switch from pure white ice a month ago to muddy coastal waters now appears to be one of the new strong feedbacks demonstrated this season.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 06:53:15 AM by P-maker »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3714 on: July 26, 2020, 06:56:35 AM »

The only thing I'll say is the guys who created piomas have done so on a very limited budget and I want to thank them for their contributions to this science.


PIOMAS is a model. All models are useful, but no models are fully accurate. I was simply pointing back to our discussions this spring because I think it is really interesting how our projections turned out pretty damn close so far.

He asked for the latest map so I posted it.

We can see with our own eyes that PIOMAS gets a lot wrong in the summer. But, I still think it is helpful to look at it. It is the best model we have for thickness and volume.


miki

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3715 on: July 26, 2020, 07:01:30 AM »

Can you post an updated thickness map? Or, where can I find it? Thanks a lot.

Below is the map from June. These maps are prepared by the University of Washington Polar Science Center.  The July map is not out yet. They do not produce daily maps. They produce monthly composites based on the PIOMAS results for each month.

There is also a PIOMAS thread in the ASIF that provides a lot of useful information.

Thanks again.

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« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 08:03:49 AM by thejazzmarauder »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3717 on: July 26, 2020, 07:42:16 AM »

The only thing I'll say is the guys who created piomas have done so on a very limited budget and I want to thank them for their contributions to this science.


PIOMAS is a model. All models are useful, but no models are fully accurate. I was simply pointing back to our discussions this spring because I think it is really interesting how our projections turned out pretty damn close so far.

He asked for the latest map so I posted it.

We can see with our own eyes that PIOMAS gets a lot wrong in the summer. But, I still think it is helpful to look at it. It is the best model we have for thickness and volume.

You are definitely right.  I didn't mean to come off condescending. 

Nothing you said was wrong at all.   We have just beat that horse to death.


The sad thing is that it is 2020 and we don't have any way to real time verify any thickness except when the ice actually melts out

So sad.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3718 on: July 26, 2020, 07:44:25 AM »
Going back to some of the comments up thread, one of the disturbing things I see in the weather over the next 5 days is the precipitation - up to 5cm in some parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi - falling as rain.

That's a huge heat input and will devastate the thinner ice.  Won't particularly help the thicker either.  It will help with the general weakening of the pack.

A lot of rain will also wash over the CAA.  Not as much, but enough.
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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3719 on: July 26, 2020, 07:47:24 AM »
Going back to some of the comments up thread, one of the disturbing things I see in the weather over the next 5 days is the precipitation - up to 5cm in some parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi - falling as rain.

That's a huge heat input and will devastate the thinner ice.  Won't particularly help the thicker either.  It will help with the general weakening of the pack.

A lot of rain will also wash over the CAA.  Not as much, but enough.

Actually the EURO says much of this will be snow but IDK if it is accurate.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3720 on: July 26, 2020, 08:07:13 AM »
Warmest temperature ever recorded on Svalbard yesterday. 21.7 C that is, and more to come. Previous record temperature for Eureka is 20.9, also looking to fall (the forecast attached says Eureka, N.W.T, but map coordinates show it is Eureka, Nunavut). Link to Canadian gov temperature records from Eureka.

I suspect record melt is ongoing across CAA and much the Atlantic side up to the pole.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3721 on: July 26, 2020, 08:12:41 AM »
Warmest temperature ever recorded on Svalbard yesterday. 21.7 C that is, and more to come. Previous record temperature for Eureka is 20.9, also looking to fall (the forecast attached says Eureka, N.W.T, but map coordinates show it is Eureka, Nunavut). Link to Canadian gov temperature records from Eureka.

I suspect record melt is ongoing across CAA and much the Atlantic side up to the pole.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3722 on: July 26, 2020, 08:17:03 AM »
The anomalously thick ice that we had earlier this season along the Atlantic front has been destroyed.


1. The Atlantic  side where it says had ice 1-1.5M above normal(the recent normal,  not the 1970s-90s) has melted out.

It must be mentioned that this ice has been pushed away from land by the compacting winds. I don't how thick it still is and it certainly has melted some, but your posts make it seem like just because there were ice touching the island shores a month ago and now there isn't, means that it all has vanished. No, much of the same ice is still there, just a few hundred km further to the north. So it is possible that the high thickness anomaly from before was reasonably accurate.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3723 on: July 26, 2020, 08:21:53 AM »
Some of it was exported down Fram, some of it was melted during the push westward and northward, and the rest has moved to where its thickness probably isn't anomalous at this time of year.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3724 on: July 26, 2020, 08:44:15 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3725 on: July 26, 2020, 09:07:23 AM »
RAMMB band M8 shows a bit of snow has fallen. Area circled in blue on last frame.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3726 on: July 26, 2020, 09:30:14 AM »
Yeah, and the M10 band shows it already melting.

Click to play.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3727 on: July 26, 2020, 09:40:28 AM »
Since nobody else seems to have confirmed this yet, today's 0Z ECMWF run reveals a 970 hPa MSLP cyclone over the Beaufort Sea two days out. GFS concurs:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1287290451318509568

It now seems safe to conclude that the sea ice in the vicinity is in for a bit of a battering!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3728 on: July 26, 2020, 09:54:22 AM »
We can see with our own eyes that PIOMAS gets a lot wrong in the summer. But, I still think it is helpful to look at it.

Well said sir!

Something else that it is helpful to look at? CryoSat-2/SMOS "measured" thickness in the vicinity of the Beaufort Sea back in April before the surface melt set in:
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3729 on: July 26, 2020, 10:00:27 AM »
The anomalously thick ice that we had earlier this season along the Atlantic front has been destroyed.


1. The Atlantic  side where it says had ice 1-1.5M above normal(the recent normal,  not the 1970s-90s) has melted out.

It must be mentioned that this ice has been pushed away from land by the compacting winds. I don't how thick it still is and it certainly has melted some, but your posts make it seem like just because there were ice touching the island shores a month ago and now there isn't, means that it all has vanished. No, much of the same ice is still there, just a few hundred km further to the north. So it is possible that the high thickness anomaly from before was reasonably accurate.

Well considering cryosat says that super thick ice doesn't exist.   I can say piomas itself is making the ice appear thicker than it is.

All of the ice piomas says was ano anonymously thick along the Atlantic side is literally gone.

Its highly suspect that it ever existed since ice modeled to be thinner in the region is still around.

Its likely the 3 areas of ice that piomas claimed to be large caches of 4M+ ice never existed because two operational and verifiable satellites cryosat and ice sat both say it never existed. 

You are calling me out while making an assumption that something exists when empirical evidence that has been beaten to death in on this forum says these super thick ice caches likely are way over some.  Just saying...

In other news the Beaufort/Chukchi/W. CAB is toast.

I finally took a modify tour up close and the amount of open water  on the Pacific side is massive. 

Clouds have greatly obscured things. 

We may not see a 2012 style melt out.

But this 2 day 970MB cyclone will ensure the Pacific side South of 80N will almost surely be ice free by Sept 10th.

Then consider the Atlantic side has gotten raped and is at the start of 10 days or more of pure weather porn heat.





Top image is cryosat  anomalies showing no Southern CAB super thick ice.

Next image is contrasted enhanced modis showing crazy open water that's about to become SUPER open.



Third image is 2m temps.. look at the Southern  CAB and those 4-5C surface temps roaring into the CAB.

Like dafuq??


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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3730 on: July 26, 2020, 10:08:43 AM »
The ice has shattered along the whole length of the Viscount Melville Sound, completing the breakup along the Parry Channel, the main passage through the CAA. The relatively clear image from two days ago shows the VMS along with the region surrounding Resolute (marked with red circle), where a new temp record has been broken.
Click and click again to zoom, large file, to show the cracks in all their glory.

JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3731 on: July 26, 2020, 10:25:56 AM »
Thanks to Jim Hunt for his previous post on the upcoming Beaufort low.

A little more information here in the 48hr forecast on GFS showing again strengthening over the last 24 hours.

The 2 day forecast now shows it to a possible 973 with increased wind speeds over 53kmph.

With 48hrs to go and the way it is going to be fed from the incoming warmth and moisture from the CAA I would expect it could get worse again at this point. The next 24hrs will be important to how severe this turns out.

Please see below expected surface moisture levels, temperatures and wind speeds combined.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3732 on: July 26, 2020, 10:30:04 AM »
As an addendum, max temps in various ground stations in the CAA yesterday.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3733 on: July 26, 2020, 10:33:42 AM »
Does anyone have access to say 5 or 10 day euro temp  anomalies.

Looking at the euro 850mb temp anomalies 0-240 hours at 24 hour intervals.

The pole to the GIS coast back to Svalbard.. then shade in the Atlantic side over to the Laptev region at 80N to the pole literally has 5-8C temp  anomalies for the 240 hour period averaged out.

With essentially major ridging  the entire run.

I know the vortex is the big ticket item.

But this is really bad as well.

This perfect storm of situations unorthodox yet DESTROYER OF ICE WORLDS is coming together to bring blue open water as far as JOHN SNOW can see.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3734 on: July 26, 2020, 10:37:10 AM »
Here is my current prediction for the sea ice min.

I'd love to see everyone's thoughts.



The region you indicated in that map is about 2.0 million km2 (based on pixel count).  I would be very surprised if the minimum extent is that low.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3735 on: July 26, 2020, 10:41:14 AM »
Ah , Friv , you are an optimist after all ! :) b.c.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3736 on: July 26, 2020, 11:13:57 AM »
RAMMB band M8 shows a bit of snow has fallen. Area circled in blue on last frame.
Click to run.
JayW I really like the RAMMB animations you produce, but I am not sure in this one, which part of the. Arctic is that?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3737 on: July 26, 2020, 11:16:55 AM »
Tuesday's storm potentially below 970hPa now, not quite GAC2012 but seemingly strengthening as we get closer.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3738 on: July 26, 2020, 11:32:31 AM »
JayW I really like the RAMMB animations you produce, but I am not sure in this one, which part of the. Arctic is that?
CAB north of the Chukchi. Alaska is at the bottom, Wrangel Island at bottom left.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3739 on: July 26, 2020, 12:01:55 PM »
Based upon what is currently happening, I think it is interesting to look back at a map discussed earlier this year. 

It seems like ages ago that we were talking about the May PIOMAS thickness map.

As we talked about earlier this year, the predicted thickest ice was located in precarious positions. After two months of weather, it is as bad as we feared.

The anomalously thick ice that we had earlier this season along the Atlantic front has been destroyed.

The anomalously thick ice in the Beaufort and north of the CAA has not yet been destroyed. However, it was that thick ice that has helped the Beaufort so far this season. That ice has been slowly melting. It is doubtful it is very thick anymore. 

Now, it is going to get hammered by a low for a few days.  Much of it will melt out.

It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

I'm going to sound like a broken record but you got to be careful when looking at ice anaomolies on the Atlantic front. The reason why there would be red there if ice is present is because in some of those years between 2011 and 2018, there was no ice around Svalbard. So in theory, the ice around Svalbard could be fairly thin but may show as a positive(red) anaomoly because of the reason I gave. No doubt there has been a retreat there and the ice on the Atlantic side does look rather thin.

The anaomoly chart is a good demonstration why a positive AO may mean colder conditions but in some areas more vulnability. It shows nicely the Siberian regions struggling to thicken up ands compacting against the Islands and this coupled with the June heatwave and July's compaction event has lead the ice edge heading so far northwards.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3740 on: July 26, 2020, 12:07:51 PM »
JayW I really like the RAMMB animations you produce, but I am not sure in this one, which part of the. Arctic is that?
CAB north of the Chukchi. Alaska is at the bottom, Wrangel Island at bottom left.
.
Thanks.
Doesn't matter that it snows if storms continue battering the Beaufort sea. The Healy saw gelid floes of three four meters thickness at times in July 2016 and all melted.

However I see very pessimistic contours of ice in September. Seems the marker wants to leave the Pole out even as it cuts out pretty compacted, less wet ice in CAB as of one week ago and as of today (even whiter than a week ago). Reminds me of Trump and his marker-predicted hurricane detour to Alabama (**just a joke nobody trigger**)

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3741 on: July 26, 2020, 01:35:33 PM »
This may sound like a stupid question but where do you find the GEM 500mb Geopotential (dam) & MSLP data from? I can't seem to find it on tropicaltidbits, I swear I must be going in circles when looking for it.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3742 on: July 26, 2020, 01:38:07 PM »
Its likely the 3 areas of ice that piomas claimed to be large caches of 4M+ ice never existed because two operational and verifiable satellites cryosat and ice sat both say it never existed.

A closeup of the CS2/SMOS data on the Atlantic side back in April:
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3743 on: July 26, 2020, 01:39:51 PM »
Where do you find the GEM 500mb Geopotential (dam) & MSLP data from? I can't seem to find it on tropicaltidbits,

Here you go:

www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp

"CMC" == "GEM"!

Currently showing 966 hPa for 0Z on Tuesday
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3744 on: July 26, 2020, 01:40:55 PM »
Hi Mrgreeny , i use meteociel .. there are a number of forecast options .. gfs , ECMWF , GEM , navgem , JMA , UKMO and gefs ensemble .. enough for most folk .. b.c.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3745 on: July 26, 2020, 01:47:52 PM »
Forecasted 5 days minimum is well above zero on the Atlantic side. Anticyclone in the Kara will persistently consume this side of the CAB and may lead to more energy stored in the Barents and Kara. Regardless of outcome, freezing season will be interesting.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3746 on: July 26, 2020, 02:08:46 PM »
Yes, indeed.
Usually the 2m temperature anomaly over the ice pack doesn't say much. Usually...
The cyclone, while enhancing melt by mechanical action over the Beaufort sea, will be pulling unusual warmth from the American continent.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3747 on: July 26, 2020, 03:25:41 PM »
This is my own stab at it, marker-style. Using current SMOS mainly and assuming a worst case scenario of a complete Beaufort-Chukchi meltout and a very plausible advance of the Laptev/Atlantic bite to near 85N at places, I get 2.5 million Km2 + CAA remaining ice.
(SMOS average courtesy of Steven)
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 03:31:12 PM by gandul »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3748 on: July 26, 2020, 03:34:48 PM »
Where do you find the GEM 500mb Geopotential (dam) & MSLP data from? I can't seem to find it on tropicaltidbits,

Here you go:

www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp

"CMC" == "GEM"!

Currently showing 966 hPa for 0Z on Tuesday
Thanks for answering also will check that out, be cause.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3749 on: July 26, 2020, 04:41:09 PM »
With the latest update, now just 5 of the previous 20 years would beat 2012, while the 10 year average would hit a low of 3.59 million km2.

Also, I've added a little video of the ice loss between June 30th and July 22nd below, but you can see it on my twitter account here also: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1287386145714839552
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