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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3750 on: July 26, 2020, 04:50:31 PM »
Cloud was light over the Beaufort yesterday, allowing a view of its center.  Rubbly ice over much of the entire sea, and ice is notably sparse in the middle of the sea.

Image pushed strongly for contrast on photoshop.
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3751 on: July 26, 2020, 06:15:12 PM »
A NEW RECORD HIGH – AND IT’S NOT OVER YET: Longyearbyen hits 21.7C Saturday evening, topping previous all-time temperature of 21.3C set in 1979; high of 22C forecast Monday.

http://icepeople.net/2020/07/25/a-new-record-high-and-its-not-over-yet-longyearbyen-hits-21-7c-saturday-evening-topping-previous-all-time-temperature-of-21-3c-set-in-1979-high-of-22c-forecast-monday/

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3752 on: July 26, 2020, 06:15:56 PM »
On Svalbard again now + 17C.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3753 on: July 26, 2020, 06:58:12 PM »
Going back to some of the comments up thread, one of the disturbing things I see in the weather over the next 5 days is the precipitation - up to 5cm in some parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi - falling as rain.

That's a huge heat input and will devastate the thinner ice.  Won't particularly help the thicker either.  It will help with the general weakening of the pack.

A lot of rain will also wash over the CAA.  Not as much, but enough.

Id second that - I think most years you see dustings of snow that slow the melt. This year there hasn't been any.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3754 on: July 26, 2020, 07:04:34 PM »
Last week in data. The Fram export GIF is longer today, covers almost 3 weeks (since i couldn't post them recently due to a technical problem).

Click to play.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3755 on: July 26, 2020, 09:35:22 PM »
What a season, holy shit. I'm pretty amazed at that -86k extent loss. I know it's not an *amazing* number, but considering the action+low+less compaction...wow.

I do agree with what was said earlier by a few people that less compaction is a bad thing for the ice right now. It absolutely is. Moreover, I'm truly amazed to see the Atlantic so clear. I need to hop on my more powerful computer to update the CAA/mega crack thread, but there's such a clear view of its entirety today. Maybe it was like this in other years, but I feel like no matter what, at any given time some portion of the central area is being hit with a blowtorch. For a while it was Siberia/Laptev, but today North Greeland/Atlantic/CAA are just getting roasted. I'm not sure I remember seeing the Atlantic face so much heat.

I can't say I know for sure, but historically speaking, how much ice does the Nares usually export? To me it looks like it's just grinding up and churning out old ice with some efficiency.
pls!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3756 on: July 26, 2020, 09:44:13 PM »
No considerable export through Nares Strait this year so far, Pearscot. And given the weather forecast, there will be none next week either.

Here is some historic data:


pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3757 on: July 26, 2020, 10:04:04 PM »
Interesting, thanks for the info!

I'm sad, I've mad at least 10 .gifs I would really like to share here but when I upload them everything breaks. I have no idea why but they are sadly impossible to share and/or find a place to host them.

I'm going to be interested to see the action on the Atlantic side/North Greenland over the next week or so.
pls!

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3758 on: July 26, 2020, 10:20:49 PM »
Worldview today, contrast pushed on Photoshop.

What stands out on this wide view for me is the thick band of fractured ice N of Ellesmere.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 04:47:02 AM by Pagophilus »
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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3759 on: July 26, 2020, 10:25:30 PM »
Is the Lincoln Sea going almost 90%+ ice-free by D10 of 12z EURO the stern rising up into the air, with the eventual plunge back southwards into the CAB garlic press and FRAM set to follow? I would argue, yes.

Both HYCOM and EURO are now in agreement that most of the Lincoln Sea will be blue by August 5th or so. This is.... unprecedented. As the situation will evolve with a simultaneous sledgehammer to the CAA ice, the open channels of the CAA thereafter are likely to allow a total collapse of the entire ATL front to 85-90N by 8/15 or so, IMO, as the ice is pushed back into the Lincoln Sea and obliterated (both in the Lincoln Sea front which at that point will be advancing, and the Laptev front, which will be retreating and melting out in-situ at same time).

I would suggest there is a possibility that the Lincoln and Laptev fronts actually meet along the boundary of the Lomonosov Ridge around 8/10-15, as the ATL ice to the east of these fronts sloughs off and is thereafter completely melted by combination of residual W/M^2 and SSTs.

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3760 on: July 26, 2020, 10:43:21 PM »
Peeks through the clouds show the effects of the stiff breeze over the Peary channel.
Click to run.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3761 on: July 26, 2020, 11:18:45 PM »
New all time high at Eureka, Canada, with 21.9° and a new monthly record at Hall Beach, Canada, with 23.2°. As already stated, Svalbard Lufthavn recorded a new all time high by 21.7°.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EKMeteo/status/1287365742099398657

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadaGooseBC/status/1287462113863258113

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3762 on: July 26, 2020, 11:23:18 PM »
Rick Thoman shows how close to average the Beaufort Sea is this year wrt SIE.



https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1285990099381977088?cxt=HHwWgICopdLL4NgjAAAA

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3763 on: July 26, 2020, 11:30:22 PM »
amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, jul1-25

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3764 on: July 26, 2020, 11:38:25 PM »
There is a noticeable increase in surf on the Barrow webcam.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3765 on: July 26, 2020, 11:56:29 PM »
Cyclone damage forecast for ice.

https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/seaice/

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3766 on: July 27, 2020, 05:08:21 AM »
Cyclone damage forecast for ice.

https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/seaice/

To me that looks less like a prediction for cyclone damage and more like a prediction for a complete stall in extent loss.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3767 on: July 27, 2020, 05:26:55 AM »


Slaters model predicts well behind 1st place, and serious risk of falling outside the top 2.

Current conditions and forecast have a significant amount of cold covering most of the ice that has big influence on the final extent minimum - the arc from Beaufort through ESS and to Laptev.  Beaufort has the forecast of a strong low to deal with, but I think this will be above average melt rather than apocaylpse.  Beaufort has been disperse for quite a long time now, plenty of time for the ocean to absorb heat energy to be stirred up by the storm.  But it has been the cool cloudy corner of the Arctic and the thickest multi-year ice has been pushed towards this sector a fair bit.

Big heat forecast is for north of Greenland on ice that has never melted out before.  Sooner or later there will be a first, but I see no obvious signs of it being this year.  This heat will move into the Laptev later in the forecast period where it will be able to have an impact on ice that is borderline - that is neither guaranteed to survive (barring something extraordinary), or guaranteed to melt out.  There is some heat on the ESS side as well but that only reaches a short way from coast onto ice that is almost all but guaranteed of melting anyway.

Current conditions according to EC 12Z 00hr lead  link.  Forecast has heat circulating further towards Laptev and eventually ESS at longer range.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3768 on: July 27, 2020, 05:54:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26th, 2020:
     5,962,825 km2, a drop of -31,737 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 06:22:08 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

mercury4

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3769 on: July 27, 2020, 06:31:04 AM »
The CAB is a hard nut to crack, and thank goodness so we don't go too far down the rabbit hole too fast. The perimeter melts so fast each summer it looks like the CAB is vulnerable, but it tends to hold on long enough to transition to a freeze over in mid Sept. without ever losing most of it's extent. The declining volume on Piomass clearly indicates 20 more years for a full loss by end of a melt season, but could happen sooner once it reaches a certain unknown lowly critical threshold, but still at minimum I think 12 years+. Predicting 2020 will end up in the 2-4th place range.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3770 on: July 27, 2020, 07:13:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26th, 2020:
     5,962,825 km2, a drop of -31,737 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...


It's pretty amazing that just about anywhere the clouds thin out Concentration plummets.

I expect losses to be steady through August   2012 and 2020 will likely end up essentially tied by the middle of the second week of August unless this vortex rips up a big area of ice on the quick.

Thats impossible to know at this point how fast things will collapse.

Collapse they will
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3771 on: July 27, 2020, 07:19:07 AM »
Welcome mercury4, though your prediction is optimistic imho.

Gumbercules

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3772 on: July 27, 2020, 07:49:55 AM »
[Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...

Are you hinting at something? Because I'm not following. But I don't spend that much time here.

<See Friv's post above. O>
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 08:27:20 AM by oren »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3773 on: July 27, 2020, 08:19:58 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GIF!
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3774 on: July 27, 2020, 08:25:31 AM »
What's with closet deniers making multiple usernames... Being disingenuous reeks through every crack that it can.  In other words it's easy to spot.

Anyways the DMI 00z surface temp map isn't out.

But the 80N map shows temps above the long term average.

Pretty wild. Might go even higher the next few days.

Also at 00Z Alert, NU reported a 17C SURFACE temp.

With a pure Southerly wind at 17KTS.

Mid 60s heading into quasi night time with a Southerly breeze pumping incredible warmth into the CAB.

On the DMI ssts graphic.  It's hard to see but the Beaufort is showing above freezing ssts slightly throughout the rubble. Which has continued to weaken under the canopy.  The sst graphic is always 2 days behind.  I look forward to seeing how much the open water in the far Southern CAB warms.

Also Barrow Alaska must be in the warm sector of the organizing system.

At 00Z Barrow was rocking a 7.4C temp and 6.5C DP with a 15-20KT pure Southerly wind.  With a decent deep and deepening mixing ratio.

So over the next 2 days in the warm sector of this system warm deep moisture will bring some rain to the rubble.

At Inuvik near the mouth of the Mackenzie delta ..at 00z...  20C with 10C DP and deep mixing.

At Resolute 5.6/5.6C so deep fog at that temp which is ice bye bye.

Eureka, NU was 18C at 00z.  Our friends there in the science community can get outside in shorts today

Also the GFS has a wide area of 0 25-1.0" of rain over a large region from the vortex. Only 1-2" of snow in a very small spot.

Also it shows 20-30KT sustained winds directly over the weakest rubble region for 36 hours.



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pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3775 on: July 27, 2020, 08:28:23 AM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3776 on: July 27, 2020, 08:31:07 AM »
Taking into consideration the existing conditions and short-term weather forecast I would expect the 'compacted' ice to disperse with the rate of area losses increasing and extent loses decreasing followed by a pickup in extent losses.

Because of the condition of the ice, August storms will probably have more impact than usually.

An important consideration could be the widening of the'U' shaped gradient as the minimum is approached and the stored ocean heat delaying the date of the minimum.

On balance I would expect a new minimum but...as always, it all depends on the weather.

If the Jet Stream is as fragmented as this on the 06 Aug 2020:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/06/0000Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.58,63.26,299
what is happening outside the Arctic will most likely adversely affect the weather inside the Arctic.
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3777 on: July 27, 2020, 08:34:00 AM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.
Maybe I lack imagination but I can't think of a scenario where 2020 finishes above 2019.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3778 on: July 27, 2020, 08:47:29 AM »
Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack.

Personally I rather doubt that, but WTF do I know?
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KiwiGriff

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3779 on: July 27, 2020, 08:51:01 AM »
I try to keep off this thread as I don't know enough to add value .
Just to place my thoughts in the record .
Months of high insolation equals excess energy  going into the arctic seas  .
Coming wind and wave action allowing that energy  to melt the remaining ice.
2020  will be a Record melt year .

ps
Friv your comments  are always a priority read .
Thanks for the effort.


« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 08:59:13 AM by KiwiGriff »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3780 on: July 27, 2020, 08:52:21 AM »
The 0Z ECMWF reckons 971 hPa, but resolution is only 24 hours of course.

PS - Just in case anybody looks that closely, the image is +24h, not +48h
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3781 on: July 27, 2020, 08:54:24 AM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.

So you expect the endless torching over the CAA and Eastern CAB to not keep melting the ice??  Which is already showing up on modis when the clouds clear out filled with holes...

What do you think this 972MB vortex puking out rain all over the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and Western CAB in concert with 20-30KT winds over 36-48 hours is going to do to ice that is truly 50-60 percent Concentration with MILES of OPEN WATER between the DECIMATED CHUNKS of ice?

And when that system winds down we still have another 40 days of ice loss to go.

You literally call predictions for new record lows crazy while giving no evidence to back up your new prediction of 2nd or 3rd lowest. I assume you are talking about extent.

Well you did cite a few days of slower losses while winds are in the reverse dipole position.  Which hasn't stopped melting.  Just compaction.


I'm not trying to be a dick but people post here putting huge effort and time backing there opinions and thoughts with great depth and thoughtfulnes and you dismiss that as crazy while offering no empirical evidence. 


I guess you have historical precidence on your side.  It would be nice if you would back up why you think 2020 is probably going to end up tied with or below 2019.

You may be right.  But it's pretty cheap to call the incredible analysis that dozens of members here contribute as crazy and then not actually offer any substance to back youe position.  Please no hard feelings.  Have a good night/day

 




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3782 on: July 27, 2020, 08:56:14 AM »
July 22-26.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3783 on: July 27, 2020, 09:06:30 AM »
July 22-26.

2019.

I was looking at nullschool this morning and thinking that the entire pack was going to drift away from the Greenland - CAA coast and towards Siberia over the coming week. Aluminium's excellet gif seems to show that process starting up!
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3784 on: July 27, 2020, 09:07:52 AM »
From Aluminiums post and Worldview you can see that a small hole in the ice is showing up about 70 km from the pole. Needs to follow up closely in the next couple of weeks. Remains to see if it will grow in size or not.

Wrt the läst days slow losses: one reason is that the Laptev bite has withdrawn the last few days. Check Aluminiums five day animation

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3785 on: July 27, 2020, 09:09:32 AM »
The CMC 0Z synopsis reckons 987 hPa at that time
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3786 on: July 27, 2020, 09:23:07 AM »
Here's a comparison of the concentration averaged over the 23rd to the 25th, vs the concentration from the 26th.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3787 on: July 27, 2020, 09:23:33 AM »
From Aluminiums post and Worldview you can see that a small hole in the ice is showing up about 70 km from the pole.

I was just looking at the same thing. This is a GIF showing it. It illustrates nicely just how fragile and mobile the ice is these days. It's a loose pack. Gif the GIF a click.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3788 on: July 27, 2020, 09:25:40 AM »
Please my crazy refers to "wouldnt it be crazy" not the person making the predictions is crazy. So I just feel that once August comes some parts of the far North Pole are colder and will stop melting. Also I am talking about extent and I think that dispersion from storms may spread out the ice while thinning it thereby offsetting the loss of ice with increase in extent in those areas while other sectors may no doubt get decimated  I just hope that by the end of August the onset of more darkness saves the top Arctic. I am just giving my wrong opinion but I apologise for the incorrect use of adjective crazy where I should have probably put more thought into that post and said "scary" "frightening" though you have to admit that if 2.5million did happen wouldnt it be absolutely crazy! ....as in mad, ludicrous, mental and mind boggling. I think I will read posts in future and not write.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3789 on: July 27, 2020, 09:29:23 AM »
Thanks for the clarification, Pauldry.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3790 on: July 27, 2020, 09:44:46 AM »
From Aluminiums post and Worldview you can see that a small hole in the ice is showing up about 70 km from the pole. Needs to follow up closely in the next couple of weeks. Remains to see if it will grow in size or not.
I was just looking at the same thing. This is a GIF showing it. It illustrates nicely just how fragile and mobile the ice is these days. It's a loose pack.
Loose pack indeed! I'm posting a pic (I mucked with the levels in PS) of said small hole, below.

I was looking at nullschool this morning and thinking that the entire pack was going to drift away from the Greenland - CAA coast and towards Siberia over the coming week. Aluminium's excellet gif seems to show that process starting up!
This has been a fear of mine for a few years now - I suspect that under the right weather conditions & with a fragile pack, this could happen. A potentially devastating possibility.

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3791 on: July 27, 2020, 09:52:30 AM »
... I think I will read posts in future and not write.

Sometimes Friv might be a trifle 'trigger happy' with all those guns he is touting but his postings make interesting and informative reading.

We cannot all be so knowledgeable as Friv and sometimes just feel the need to express our 'opinions', so keep posting  :)
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3792 on: July 27, 2020, 09:54:15 AM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.

We have not yet seen what the impact of the cyclone will be. 

Area is still dropping significantly, and I consider that to be a more important metric than extent.

Again, 2.5 million is still on the table.  There is a huge energy budget for bottom melt and a lot of ice under 1 meter out there.  That's before we consider what the storm and continuing insolation will do - it's still over 300 watts/m2 currently when ice is exposed.

In general, I concur with Oren - I don't yet see a scenario where we don't reach at least 2nd.
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JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3793 on: July 27, 2020, 10:04:47 AM »
July 22-26.

2019.

I was looking at nullschool this morning and thinking that the entire pack was going to drift away from the Greenland - CAA coast and towards Siberia over the coming week. Aluminium's excellet gif seems to show that process starting up!

In agreement.

You can also see the ice is 'still melting'.

Drops near Atlantic side/Svalbard as it pushes closer to the pole, and now the compacting high has stopped the ice is spreading out in other areas.

Looking at Aluminiums GIF, ice seems back on the move towards the laptev reversing its push towards the pole. Wind forecasts show this will continue for days and as Binntho just stated!
Expect the CAA/Greenland crack to open up even more as this is the basic movement of wind over the next few days!

The ice is now transitory with several systems in place. Extent maybe slowing as compaction drops again. I see no reason at all why volume and area drops will not continue marching on in the next few days at least!

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3794 on: July 27, 2020, 10:11:04 AM »
Crossposting from the thread about SIE around Antarctica wrt polynyas:

"Putting this info in this thread hoping it will get some attention. A possibly concerning feature that has shown up again this year is the polynya at East Antarctica. It appeared back in 2016-2017 but in the Weddell Sea. According to a scientific study these polynyas might have an impact on the global temperature prompting warming in the years after their appearance."



https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2017-09-antarctic-sea-ice-affect-worldwide.amp

JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3795 on: July 27, 2020, 10:23:55 AM »
The Beaufort Low is now arriving and on schedule as forecasted 4 days out with a few initial possibilities forming. It has steadied up as in the initial forecast to appx 974 with up to 45kmph winds.

Along with coastal lateral upwelling, mixing and wind the areas of interest as the low is in place will be: Movement of ice in the Chucki sea, Beaufort ice break up and the movement of ice off the CAA.

Lots of moisture also here at surface levels being dragged in off the CAA up to 22KG/m2.


Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3796 on: July 27, 2020, 10:27:26 AM »
The forecast for the area (and volume) numbers looks bad, agreed. The anticyclone compacted what little ice there was to compact and it looks like dispersion in a week or so may stall the extent nymbers all together. Does someone have a forecast of the currents in Canadian Arctic Archipelago? This low pressure might just reverse the normal southward flows of waters in there.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3797 on: July 27, 2020, 11:01:06 AM »
July 22-26.

2019.

I was looking at nullschool this morning and thinking that the entire pack was going to drift away from the Greenland - CAA coast and towards Siberia over the coming week. Aluminium's excellet gif seems to show that process starting up!

In agreement.

You can also see the ice is 'still melting'.

Drops near Atlantic side/Svalbard as it pushes closer to the pole, and now the compacting high has stopped the ice is spreading out in other areas.

Looking at Aluminiums GIF, ice seems back on the move towards the laptev reversing its push towards the pole. Wind forecasts show this will continue for days and as Binntho just stated!
Expect the CAA/Greenland crack to open up even more as this is the basic movement of wind over the next few days!

The ice is now transitory with several systems in place. Extent maybe slowing as compaction drops again. I see no reason at all why volume and area drops will not continue marching on in the next few days at least!
The long term forecasts have been in agreement for a while now, that the center of the low will settle itself somewhere on Ellesmere island. If that does happen, you can see on day five of my forecast that some moderately strong wind will go up the Fram strait.

If this forecast holds, that could mean a that the weak ice on the northeast coast of Greenland could disappear completely.

I know that this forecast could change dramatically, but it hasn't changed for a few days now, so probability is high for a low to settle on the CAAAGC coast, which will open up the mega crack a lot more.

The possibility of the entire ice pack moving away from the CAAAGC (is it ok I use this acronym for the CAA And Greenland Coast?) is something I've been wondering about since I started following the Arctic. Now I know that the pack stays there because of the underlying currents. So if it does float away, wouldn't the current push it back as soon as the wind dies down?
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3798 on: July 27, 2020, 11:11:38 AM »
 
Quote
wouldn't the current push it back as soon as the wind dies down?
Who knows how much the currents have changed already? Beaufort Gyre is not a very stable current, and it might lose it's connections to the CAA channels.

JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3799 on: July 27, 2020, 11:32:51 AM »
So if it does float away, wouldn't the current push it back as soon as the wind dies down?

I would of thought so, I would not expect much movement on CAA/GC side. I would expect more motion as you head towards the periphery and in to the Laptev/ESS seas as the ice thins out and dispersion takes place more freely.

The forecast shows the winds holding for appx 5 days. Then a small tendency back towards a southerly CAA/GC side which would slow ice melt, as we move away from peak insolation if weather stays settled so in the hands of the weather Gods. Its what happens in these 5 days that will count and how much ice and how far it will get pushed out towards Laptev/ESS. Its all aiding melt metrics.

Things could alter in the forecast within 5 days. A southerly after would help preserve the ice if pushing back towards the CAB/CAA. Fingers crossed I guess, and if a southerly appears lets also hope not too much damage has occured in the next 5 days in the CAA or it would be garlic press in action!
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 11:57:28 AM by JamesW »