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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3800 on: July 27, 2020, 11:41:19 AM »
Seems like the developing storm is pulling is the smoke/ash clouds from the Siberian wildfires. A risk of this getting deposited across the Beaufort and Chukchi ice.
https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1287683902912503815
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werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3801 on: July 27, 2020, 12:20:48 PM »
Thanks BFTV,

Watch the unfolding Low on the Barrow webcam. Wind-swept waves on the coast, steady rain... The report speaks of wind gusts 33 mph. That's 6 - 7 Beaufort.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3802 on: July 27, 2020, 12:33:45 PM »
Watch the unfolding Low on the Barrow webcam. Wind-swept waves on the coast, steady rain... The report speaks of wind gusts 33 mph. That's 6 - 7 Beaufort.

The wave height is more than a meter. I will save it in case the camera site crashes due to too many visitors.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3803 on: July 27, 2020, 12:42:07 PM »
An even clearer image of the storm.

werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3804 on: July 27, 2020, 01:00:37 PM »
It's unfolding as foreseen. In the first stages, weather has forced a big reduction on extent loss. To remember the 2012 GAC; it hit from the Sakha Republic, Siberia, right into the slush and goodbye waves in the ESS. From that direction, there wasn't the noticeable slow down in extent reduction. Within two days, under the clouds, GAC spreaded everything out over 2Mkm2 ocean, pushing the ice content under 15% in the grid-count. It was called 'flash melt' then.
The present Beaufort-chaser storm creates a different pattern. The 10-day ECMWF shows it teaming up with a Eurasian side anticyclone, thus setting up what could be called a reversed dipole.

In that situation, measured extent-loss will remain reduced for that period. That doesn't mean the pack-ice will be safe. While a lot of debris will seem to regain sea in the Chukchi, the ESS and Laptev, area will nose-dive and I have no doubt volume does the same.

In the coming 10 days, volume might loose up to 1500 km3. PIOMAS will report up to 15 July. So in about 10 days their graph will reflect the strong July melt. It will take the line at pair with 12, 17 and 19; about 6500 km3. After that, the coming 10 days will bring a decisive reel down for volume, taking it to a new dramatic low come september.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3805 on: July 27, 2020, 01:13:25 PM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.
Maybe I lack imagination but I can't think of a scenario where 2020 finishes above 2019.

It's not impossible but it will be a miracle as we are going to have the ESS and Laptev seas ice free this year so it's a case of the Beaufort trying to hold on and the Atlantic edge not heading too far Northwards to try and be above 4 million. Whilst i think some of the Beaufort ice may hang on in there, I think the Atlantic edge could get quite far north this year so the chances of finishing above last year's total does seem fairly slim but not impossible.

johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3806 on: July 27, 2020, 01:20:38 PM »
Looking at the bathymetry one major point of interest is the opening north of Wrangel where there's a 'pinch point' to force Atl. waters from the shelfs slope. gif means click [added link]






« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 03:15:40 PM by johnm33 »

werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3807 on: July 27, 2020, 01:31:47 PM »
John, good afternoon, interesting but what does that say in relation to the exciting weather development today and for the next 10 days?

Paul, hello, the reversed dipole situation coming 10 days will push the ice-front on the Atlantic sector up North. In earlier years, that could work up to 200-250 km N of Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa. Expect 170K losses there. But spread on the Bering side will compensate that easily. Nevertheless, new losses in the CAA will still mean extent reduction next 10 days.

The spectacle on Worldview however, that will show what's really going on!

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3808 on: July 27, 2020, 01:41:32 PM »
Atlantic waters north of Wrangel Island? In the Chukchi? Or the EES perhaps?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3809 on: July 27, 2020, 02:23:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GIF!
Thanks for another really useful nullschool animation Freegrass.  I find them so helpful for visualizing what might happen.  Some musings follow, assuming the forecast is correct.

What I am seeing is that the ice boundary should be pushed and melted back on the Atlantic side, as warm winds stream consistently in from that side.  Extent should decrease there.

Ice floes should be pushed into the Laptev, ESS and Chukchi, especially once the Coriolis Effect is taken into account.  Extent should increase here, but it only means that ice is going to oblivion in these warmer seas.

The Beaufort looks like it is in for a vigorous stirring, which can only mean an acceleration of its melt, especially if deeper warm waters are brought to the surface.

I am not sure about what will happen with those cracks on the Canadian/Greenland side.  It seems to me that it would take a very long-lived weather system with consistent winds blowing offshore to really open those up.
 
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3810 on: July 27, 2020, 02:27:27 PM »
[Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...

Are you hinting at something? Because I'm not following. But I don't spend that much time here.

<See Friv's post above. O>
July 22-26.

2019.
On my point of view, the storm is going to be very harmful to the ice. The slowdown in the ice melted is expected and, in a way, it is bad that we still have a drop on extent. In the Bremen image that I post (I post it again here), we can immediately see that the ice is losing concentration and we start to see an ice hole on the Beaufort Sea. This damage on Beaufort will increase on the following days.

Thanks to the great gif of Aluminium, we can also see that we are losing extent on the Atlantic side, while the ice is moving to the previous warm waters on the Russian side.

On the Nullschool pictures, I find that there is a lot of heat stored in the Arctic and there is a lot of heat entering from both Oceans: the Pacific and the Atlantic. There is also heat on the Canadian Archipelago and on the Russian side. The winds on the Atlantic side are favoring melt and compactness there. The winds are also moving the ice on the Greenland Sea into the Atlantic. On the other hand, the storm is bringing heat from the Pacific side to Beaufort. An moving the ice to warm waters on the Russian side. So, not doubt, these days are going to be an ice killer.

I expect a slowdown on the melt on the following days, but not too much. Then, other century drops. At the beginning of August, 2020 will continue to be the leader being the lowest by far. We will have to wait to the end of August to see how 2020 is performing against 2012, but I think the storm will help 2020 to possibly make a new lowest record.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-67.66,95.15,690
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 02:32:38 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alison

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3811 on: July 27, 2020, 02:33:18 PM »
Quote
I think I will read posts in future and not write.

Please don’t stop posting - I for one like to read comments from people who don’t need shouting in caps and expletives to communicate...

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3812 on: July 27, 2020, 02:43:01 PM »
One interesting feature on the extent graphs is the stall that happened in 2012 at the 6 level just as it is doing this year. One other very low September extent year also stalled at the 6 level.

I'm glad that there is a diversity of opinion about the final extent level this September, but anyone who thinks that the Beaufort sea ice will get through the next 6 weeks intact is wildly optimistic. If we're lucky some big blocks exported from the CAA shores will survive. The Uni Bremen concentration maps show what poor shape the matrix of the Beaufort ice is in. The storm will mix up water from below and that matrix will be gone, exposing the thicker blocks that rotated into the Beaufort under high pressure.

I can't take the criticism too seriously. It doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Agreed, Friv.

You may be right.  But it's pretty cheap to call the incredible analysis that dozens of members here contribute as crazy and then not actually offer any substance to back youe position.  Please no hard feelings.

werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3813 on: July 27, 2020, 02:50:25 PM »
Hi FOoW, you're right concerning the extent graphs. There seems to have occurred an extent loss reduction just before GAC 12 appeared. I didn't have that in my memory. It doesn't feel very comfortable while awaiting the Beaufort-chaser-surprises!

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3814 on: July 27, 2020, 03:03:59 PM »
To put matters to rest, nobody called other posters' analysis crazy. The notion was the outcome was crazy, to which I agree wholeheartedly. And indeed with the passing years what used to be crazy is becoming commonplace, and this trend is the really crazy thing.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3815 on: July 27, 2020, 03:07:26 PM »
In 2012, the storm took a little time to build in strength, and spread out the pack in the process causing a slight pause before the flash melt occurred. The ice around the Chukchi and ESS was much more sparse and broken compared to the Beaufort and Chukchi this year, so I don't think the slight pauses arise from the same process.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3816 on: July 27, 2020, 03:12:03 PM »
 ???

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3817 on: July 27, 2020, 03:19:11 PM »
On my point of view, the storm is going to be very harmful to the ice. The slowdown in the ice melted is expected and, in a way, it is bad that we still have a drop on extent. In the Bremen image that I post (I post it again here), we can immediately see that the ice is losing concentration and we start to see an ice hole on the Beaufort Sea. This damage on Beaufort will increase on the following days.

This was 23rd of July 2012 for comparison

<Please quote just the part you must, not everything. O>
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 06:02:46 PM by oren »

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3818 on: July 27, 2020, 03:20:16 PM »
John, good afternoon, interesting but what does that say in relation to the exciting weather development today and for the next 10 days?

Paul, hello, the reversed dipole situation coming 10 days will push the ice-front on the Atlantic sector up North. In earlier years, that could work up to 200-250 km N of Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa. Expect 170K losses there. But spread on the Bering side will compensate that easily. Nevertheless, new losses in the CAA will still mean extent reduction next 10 days.

The spectacle on Worldview however, that will show what's really going on!

The winds don't look all that strong to push the ice edge northwards. Because of the bathymetry and the much deeper waters, I always think that the closer to the pole you go, it's like an imaginary hill for open water to get upto so whilst ice can easily move around at the lower latitudes it needs something more stronger the higher up in latitudes you go. Having said that, the temperatures look almost unprecedented and the SSTS are warm so those could be enough to keep pushing that ice edge back. In most years, the deep low aside, the weather would be more favourable for sea ice than not. It will be interesting to watch and observe in the next 4 to 6 weeksm

johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3819 on: July 27, 2020, 03:28:41 PM »
Good afternoon werther, I'll leave the weather to those who know better, what I do expect when that thick cloud clears from the CAB is to see a clear broad path where melt/freeze has occured traced more or less from that pinch point to the pole. I suspect there's a current there which will shed spin as it moves north, it may then cross Lomonosov or turn towards Beaufort, we'll see.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3820 on: July 27, 2020, 03:43:53 PM »
Side by side of July 26th in 2012 and 2020.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3821 on: July 27, 2020, 03:48:20 PM »
The winds don't look all that strong to push the ice edge northwards. Because of the bathymetry and the much deeper waters, I always think that the closer to the pole you go, it's like an imaginary hill for open water to get upto so whilst ice can easily move around at the lower latitudes it needs something more stronger the higher up in latitudes you go.
It is beyond me to understand what bathymetry has to do with the wind pushing the ice around. Generally speaking, the whole bathymetry fixation seems strange to me - I'll admit that on the Atlantic front, the sheer drop north of the Svalbard/FJL line enables the increasingly heavy Atlantic waters to sink below the cold-water lens under the ice. And the very shallow waters of the Siberian shelf obviously has an effect on the general movement of surface waters there. But bathymetry and wind?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3822 on: July 27, 2020, 04:01:25 PM »
Side by side of July 26th in 2012 and 2020.

A picture says a thousand words and two pictures say...

The two images side-by-side, in the same format, make comparisons so much easier. It reminds me of the puzzles in childrens' comics 'Spot the Differences' (Do kids still read comics?).

This pictorial comparison summaries much of what have been the subjects of recent postings. The anomalies are all there to be seen; Laptev, Beaufort, N W Passage, land fast ice CAA, north coast of Greenland and of course, the ice thickness.

+1
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 04:26:31 PM by D-Penguin »
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3823 on: July 27, 2020, 04:04:41 PM »
Binntho, good afternoon,

I was considering an answer, but you expressed it quite punctuated. Over the years, I often felt struck by the similarity in form of bathymetry and remaining ice at the end of the melt season. But I never struck upon an explanation that convincingly tied the two.
The sink of saline waters N of the Svalbard-Frantsa Yosefa continental shelf, sure. But the year over year quite constant ice pack front over there is partly based on the formerly well structured 'safe haven' of 1,8 Mkm2 N of Greenland. Wind moved ice usually formed a dense belt, not free to move further N.
Now that the whole pack is more mobile than ever, it 'll be interesting to see what the 5-8 Bft southerly winds are capable of (ECMWF +96-+240h).

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3824 on: July 27, 2020, 04:09:08 PM »
Werther, a very good afternoon to you too! I guess, from the formal style, that you must be the the older uncle to the young one! But it is with the bathymetry as it is with the time zone - coincindence makes it afternoon for both of us, but that does not indicate any causal link between us whatsoever.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

werther

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3825 on: July 27, 2020, 04:22:09 PM »
Well I'm probably the older uncle, yes, who luckily didn't experience the misery feelings that led young Werther to the end in Goethe's book!
Nevertheless, I took my nickname out of tristesse for what's happening to the natural beauty on this planet.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3826 on: July 27, 2020, 05:15:46 PM »
Binntho, good afternoon,

I was considering an answer, but you expressed it quite punctuated. Over the years, I often felt struck by the similarity in form of bathymetry and remaining ice at the end of the melt season. But I never struck upon an explanation that convincingly tied the two.
The sink of saline waters N of the Svalbard-Frantsa Yosefa continental shelf, sure. But the year over year quite constant ice pack front over there is partly based on the formerly well structured 'safe haven' of 1,8 Mkm2 N of Greenland. Wind moved ice usually formed a dense belt, not free to move further N.
Now that the whole pack is more mobile than ever, it 'll be interesting to see what the 5-8 Bft southerly winds are capable of (ECMWF +96-+240h).

A causal link between bathymetry and patterns of remaining ice at the end of the melt season is almost certainly the case!  The oft mentioned stratification of the Arctic cannot properly occur in the shallow ~50m waters of the continental shelf particularly on the Russian side.  The shallow seas combined are only around 2% of Arctic water volume and on the Russian side is where most of the large rivers empty into the Arctic.  Inflowing rivers are I believe about 2% of annual Arctic inflow which would have a negligible effect on the deep arctic but could be expected to be significant to the shallow coastal seas much smaller volume.  The deep arctic is subject to different conditions than the shallow seas and would be expected to behave differently.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3827 on: July 27, 2020, 05:22:49 PM »
Side by side of July 26th in 2012 and 2020.

It's really interesting how you can see the outlines of 2012's end result in the concentration map already at this point in time. I wonder if we're already starting to see the outline for 2020? I could imagine most of the ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS disappearing and the year ending with a similar outline to 2012.

Edit: Not dissimilar to the Green shape that El Cid (I believe) posted further up thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg276906.html#msg276906
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 05:31:52 PM by marcel_g »

UCMiami

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3828 on: July 27, 2020, 05:26:54 PM »
Today's WorldView shows a wave of large open leads in the CAB from 60E to 120E from at least 85N south to the ice edge - very impressive opening up of the supposedly 'compact' CAB (really just concentrated not compacted.) And this has occurred at the very beginning of the new weather pattern which shows how loose the CAB concentration really is. With this much dispersion of the CAB it is impressive that extent loss is continuing even if slowed, and I would suggest it points to continued strong melting. Area and Extent are both in record territory. Everyone looks to the 2012 GAC as an ice destroyer, but if you look at the graph for the year, what the GAC actually accomplished was to delay the normal slow down in ice loss, not accelerate the ice loss.

The weather this coming week will be interesting, but I think it is too early in the season to affect when the yearly slow down will occur. If it causes a huge crash in ice area and extent that creates a wide enough gap below 2012 it might be enough for a record year. If it moves enough ice south it might allow for a delayed slow down in mid August. Otherwise, some special weather event in August is still going to be required to challenge, in my opinion. Extending century drops one week in mid August as happened in 2012 is the game changer - extending the minimum date in September by a week when average daily losses are 10-20 km doesn't move the needle much.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3829 on: July 27, 2020, 05:41:00 PM »
Wow, the Atlantic side sure is taking a hit recently. I was surprised to see the ice lose so much ground...not to mention I feel like the Atlantic has more or less unlimited heat compared to other sources of water in the Arctic.

What a season!
pls!

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3830 on: July 27, 2020, 05:54:35 PM »
Side by side of July 26th in 2012 and 2020.
It's really interesting how you can see the outlines of 2012's end result in the concentration map already at this point in time. I wonder if we're already starting to see the outline for 2020? I could imagine most of the ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS disappearing and the year ending with a similar outline to 2012.
    That is an interesting way to reduce all the complexity for a look at what might be ahead.  If that is what happens, and 2020 has similar Extent outline as 2012, then I think a key difference would be that the 2020 remnants would have much weaker ice in the core CAA-Greenland-North Pole triangle that used to be the ice fortress.  That area used to be MYI, but that is gone and the ice in the triangle continues to be assaulted by the inexorable advance of melting forces.  If the 2020 minimum follows its current pattern, then 2020 Volume will be lower compared to 2012 even if their respective Extent values are similar. 

    FWIW - in Gow and Tucker 1991 review of polar ice dynamics they report that Arctic melt pond prevalence peaks at ~60% in early summer and declines to 30% and below as summer progresses.  I suspect that has an impact on accuracy and intrepretation of the Bremen/AMSR2/HYCOM/NSIDC ASI concentration charts, i.e. late-July and August concentration readings should be more accurate than those in June.  If the low concentration areas in the CAA-GL-NP triangle in the July 26 images posted above by JCG and glennbuck are reliable, then we are already seeing one of the major outcomes of 2020 -  a reduction of ice concentration/thickness/volume/quality in the CAA-GL-NP triangle.  In addtion, that is almost exactly the area getting exposed to clear sky and warm temperatures right now, so more damage is likely to occur in that area before the end of the 2020 melt season.




« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 08:17:34 PM by Glen Koehler »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3831 on: July 27, 2020, 06:06:48 PM »
The CMC 12Z synopsis has the cyclone MSLP below 980 hPa.

Will it break 970 as well in the not too distant future?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3832 on: July 27, 2020, 06:08:16 PM »
The wave height is more than a meter.

How did you come to that conclusion?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3833 on: July 27, 2020, 06:09:29 PM »
I suspect that has an impact on accuracy and intrepretation of the Bremen/AMSR2/HYCOM/NSIDC ASI concentration charts, i.e. late-July and August concentration readings should be more accurate than those in June.  If the low concentration areas in the CAA-GL-NP triangle in the July 26 image posted above by JCG are reliable, then we are already seeing one of the major outcomes of 2020 -  a reduction of ice concentration/thickness/quality in the CAA-GL-NP triangle.  In addtion, that is almost exactly the area getting exposed to clear sky and warm temperatures right now, so more damage is likely to occur before the end of the 2020 melt season.

I agree. The Bremen map does not show the black ice that is clearly visible on MODIS. In 2012, there was a lot of open water at this site.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 06:18:51 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3834 on: July 27, 2020, 06:10:22 PM »
The wave height is more than a meter.

How did you come to that conclusion?

I compare the height of the surf with the nearest houses to the sea.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3835 on: July 27, 2020, 06:13:36 PM »
 8)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3836 on: July 27, 2020, 07:16:31 PM »
From a neighboring topic:

- 2020 Area is 139 k less than 2012
- 2020 EXTENT is 740 k less than 2012   


Sea ice area loss on this day 108 k, 55 k more than the 2010's average loss of 53 k
Central Arctic_   -43    k   loss
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.   
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 07:25:36 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3837 on: July 27, 2020, 07:18:27 PM »
I can finally add this now that I have some functional internet.

Anyways, I was discussing export out of the Nares Strait and it is certainly impressive (to me at least). It is interesting to see how the Lincoln Sea has really been impacted these last two melt seasons.

pls!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3838 on: July 27, 2020, 07:31:11 PM »
Is that open water I see through the clouds? Did the whole thing fall apart?

GIF of fast ice on the east coast of Greenland.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3839 on: July 27, 2020, 07:38:42 PM »
Did the whole thing fall apart?

Certainly.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3840 on: July 27, 2020, 07:41:24 PM »
Did the whole thing fall apart?

Certainly.
Difficult to see on your image. I'm talking about the area just above that island, in the middle of my GIF.

https://go.nasa.gov/301UYcE
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 07:55:13 PM by Freegrass »
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3841 on: July 27, 2020, 07:46:59 PM »
Ah, ok. Can't see anything there. Too cloudy at every frame from the RAMMB.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3842 on: July 27, 2020, 08:15:39 PM »
The Beaufort Low is now arriving and on schedule as forecasted 4 days out with a few initial possibilities forming. It has steadied up as in the initial forecast to appx 974 with up to 45kmph winds.
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KenB

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3843 on: July 27, 2020, 08:24:39 PM »
Is that open water I see through the clouds? Did the whole thing fall apart?

GIF of fast ice on the east coast of Greenland.

Does kinda look that way; there was a lot of fracturing visible 2 days earlier, though I would said more EW than NS then.  Further up the coast there's been a pretty marked lifting toward the NE and there was plenty of room in that direction just E. of that island.
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Yossarian80

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3844 on: July 27, 2020, 08:34:54 PM »
Some pretty good waves showing up on this NOAA wave model... it shows an extended duration with 3-4m significant wave height in the ne Chukchi near the ice edge. The model shows the worst of it occurring after the cyclone’s peak intensity as slow storm movement allows the waves to build over time. Edit: 2-3m looks like the max, I misread the key.

https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-hs-alaska-
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 08:40:32 PM by Yossarian80 »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3845 on: July 27, 2020, 08:49:00 PM »
From a neighboring topic:

- 2020 Area is 139 k less than 2012
- 2020 EXTENT is 740 k less than 2012   


Sea ice area loss on this day 108 k, 55 k more than the 2010's average loss of 53 k
Central Arctic_   -43    k   loss
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.   
Here are the NSIDC Central Arctic Sea graphs for AREA & EXTENT.
Sea Ice losses way ahead of 2019.
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3846 on: July 27, 2020, 08:52:47 PM »
Sea Ice Prediction Network for September outlook.

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/july

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3847 on: July 27, 2020, 09:03:33 PM »
Atlantic waters north of Wrangel Island? In the Chukchi? Or the EES perhaps?
According to the mercator model salinity at 34m depth, here with amsr2-uhh overlaid at 60%, atlantic waters reach almost 80N of Wrangel Island before turning back and eventually reaching the Fram.

Last year, iirc, there was some anomalous melt in this area, possibly due to atlantic water mixing in the shallower regions or perhaps due to a 'pinch point'.

The salinity scale is not accurate with the overlay, but yellow > green > blue

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3848 on: July 27, 2020, 09:04:18 PM »
The mega-crack

It seems to me that it would take a very long-lived weather system with consistent winds blowing offshore to really open those up.

It certainly would and certainly did - in late Feb 2018.
I remember looking at the DMI 80 graph - stupefied.

I keep on telling myself not to predict anything in the Arctic - anything can happen in the next 50 days.
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3849 on: July 27, 2020, 09:05:17 PM »
Sea Ice Prediction Network for September outlook.
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/july
    It would be interesting if an ASIF consenus for <3.5M km2 (with not a small chance of <3) (if there is any such consenus) is more accurate than almost all these offical expert estimates which cluster near or above 4M km2.  At this point I'd put my money on ASIF.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 09:11:16 PM by Glen Koehler »