The 2020 melting season

[marcel_g]

Sea Ice Prediction Network for September outlook.

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/july

Wow, unless I'm reading that chart incorrectly, apparently many of us here are predicting a minimum under all but 2 of their minimums!

[Jim Hunt]

I compare the height of the surf with the nearest houses to the sea.

Thanks. Based on the Mark 1 eyeball then, rather than a model!

How do you rate these waves from Snow White's archives?

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/barrow-battered-by-big-waves/

[Pagophilus]

To put matters to rest, nobody called other posters' analysis crazy. The notion was the outcome was crazy, to which I agree wholeheartedly. And indeed with the passing years what used to be crazy is becoming commonplace, and this trend is the really crazy thing.

"...  maybe I'm crazy
Maybe you're crazy
Maybe we're crazy
Probably"

                 Gnarls Barkley, Crazy.     

[OffTheGrid]

Current wave conditions impacting the ice around the Beaufort cyclone. And peak wind and rain and temp as forecast by the Euro around min pressure at 6 to 9 hrs from now.  animate with clicking.
The waves of 2.3 from west and 1m swells from south conspire to produced grid of peaks 3.3 m above sealevel, and holes 3.3 below sealevel with distance about twenty metres over this 6.6m heights difference. An ice pulverising party, beginning right now off Barrow.
The peak winds and rain set to sever the Beaufort arm from the Outer CAA.
Also Hycom prediction for thickness and concentration in seven days after the storm has (will it???) passed. So we can scrutinise Its predictive skill in a week from now.

[Pagophilus]

The winds don't look all that strong to push the ice edge northwards. Because of the bathymetry and the much deeper waters, I always think that the closer to the pole you go, it's like an imaginary hill for open water to get upto so whilst ice can easily move around at the lower latitudes it needs something more stronger the higher up in latitudes you go.

It is beyond me to understand what bathymetry has to do with the wind pushing the ice around. Generally speaking, the whole bathymetry fixation seems strange to me - I'll admit that on the Atlantic front, the sheer drop north of the Svalbard/FJL line enables the increasingly heavy Atlantic waters to sink below the cold-water lens under the ice. And the very shallow waters of the Siberian shelf obviously has an effect on the general movement of surface waters there. But bathymetry and wind?

I don't get the bathymetry and wind thing either.  But bathymetry -- deep basin topography -- does seem to have an important impact on ice survival and therefore ice distribution, including, IMO, beyond the Atlantic front.  So I would urge that we do not throw the bathymetry out with the bathwater.   

[Rod]

The mega-crack

It seems to me that it would take a very long-lived weather system with consistent winds blowing offshore to really open those up.

It certainly would and certainly did - in late Feb 2018.
I remember looking at the DMI 80 graph - stupefied.

I keep on telling myself not to predict anything in the Arctic - anything can happen in the next 50 days.

I remember that day. That is when I became addicted to watching ice melt.

It is interesting to compare the temperature anomalies from then to now. The anomalies on February 26, 2018 were obviously much, much larger, because it was winter and now we are in summer. 

However, the location of the anomalies are remarkably similar.

[Aluminium]

    It would be interesting if an ASIF consenus for <3.5M km2 (with not a small chance of <3) (if there is any such consenus) is more accurate than almost all these offical expert estimates which cluster near or above 4M km2.  At this point I'd put my money on ASIF.

There are different metrics. September mean extent above 4M is quite possible. At least more likely than below 3M. This year has great potential to surprise but also some obstacles.

[Pagophilus]

It is interesting to see how, even with the developing low, much of the Arctic ice continues to receive direct sunshine, 24 hrs/day.  Still important in these last few days of July.

[bbr2315]

The 12z EURO is catastrophic and the notion that a minimum under 2.5M KM^2 is somehow now off the table when the forecasted weather continues getting WORSE is laughable.

[Glen Koehler]

    It would be interesting if an ASIF consenus for <3.5M km2 (with not a small chance of <3) (if there is any such consenus) is more accurate than almost all these offical expert estimates which cluster near or above 4M km2.  At this point I'd put my money on ASIF.

There are different metrics. September mean extent above 4M is quite possible. At least more likely than below 3M. This year has great potential to surprise but also some obstacles.

    Guilty as charged for conflating Sept avg with Sept min.  Still, those SIPN estimates look high.  but the truth will soon be known!

[Niall Dollard]

The SIPN median from the July report was 4.36 million km².

Lowest NSIDC average for September was 3.57 in 2012.

For the ASIF, the most relevant poll is Juan's poll here :

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3154.0.html

The mean of the ASIF predictions is 3.67.

So ASIF prediction is approximately 0.7 below the SIPN.

[Pagophilus]

The MegaCracks and the Nares.  July 21-27.

Much more ice moving W along the coast of Ellesmere than going down the Nares.

Warning.  Large gif.  Click to animate in a separate window.

[gerontocrat]

    It would be interesting if an ASIF consenus for <3.5M km2 (with not a small chance of <3) (if there is any such consenus) is more accurate than almost all these offical expert estimates which cluster near or above 4M km2.  At this point I'd put my money on ASIF.

There are different metrics. September mean extent above 4M is quite possible. At least more likely than below 3M. This year has great potential to surprise but also some obstacles.

    Guilty as charged for conflating Sept avg with Sept min.  Still, those SIPN estimates look high.  but the truth will soon be known!

IF 2020 remaining melt to minimum (and sea ice gain in late September) is at the average of the last 10 years, the September NSIDC Extent average would be 3.68 million km2. Just, but only just, above 2012.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Let's wait and see which one pulled the best pack of Tarot cards!!! 

The SIPN median from the July report was 4.36 million km².

Lowest NSIDC average for September was 3.57 in 2012.

For the ASIF, the most relevant poll is Juan's poll here :

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3154.0.html

The mean of the ASIF predictions is 3.67.

So ASIF prediction is approximately 0.7 below the SIPN.

[Rod]

Big heatwave in Svalbard ... three out of the four warmest days ever recorded are the last three days!

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1287828295980113923?s=21

The reverse dipole is blowing all of that exceptionally warm air to the North Pole.

Even if we don’t set the record this year for extent, the central CAB is going to get hammered on volume.

[ArcticMelt2]

The storm in Barrow intensified markedly after the calm.

[ArcticMelt2]

Thanks. Based on the Mark 1 eyeball then, rather than a model!

In the next topic wrote that the models predict waves up to 1.5 meters in Barrow. So I almost got it right.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg277491.html#msg277491

Marine forecast for Utqiagvik area has waves building to 5 ft. (1.5m).

How do you rate these waves from Snow White's archives?

I think 2-3 meters.

[Jim Hunt]

Some input from Judah Cohen et al. on Twatter:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1287852531247452161

[tybeedave]

can some one tell me if this is a polyna at 88.3 or some type of artifact on wd? 

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-317448.8062185885,-163556.64491076395,-37896.80621858849,-45028.64491076395&p=arctic

[igs]

I'm not trying to be a dick but people post here putting huge effort and time backing there opinions and thoughts with great depth and thoughtfulnes and you dismiss that as crazy while offering no empirical evidence. 

No worries, it's always the same few contenders that jump on every slow down and/or pick-up bandwagon immediately. I've got some idea about the possible motives.

Obviously a minor slowdown of a few days had to be expected during transition from anti-cyclonic to cyclonic conditions. The ice that now spreads out a bit will need a few days to melt and from that day one the slope will resume to average or below average gradient.

Just wait and chuckle, same happened every month till now after each minor slow down only to be followed by even more rigorous drops (cliffs)

[Jim Hunt]

can some one tell me if this is a polyna at 88.3 or some type of artifact on wd?

I see hints of some modest leads at your link. Is that what you're referring to?

Nothing that I would term a "polynya" though.

[KenB]

So I would urge that we do not throw the bathymetry out with the bathwater.   

Thanks for the laugh, I needed one.  I'm with you; the coincidence is too strong to ignore.

[JamesW]

The Beaufort low is now in place at 973 and dropping to 972 in 6 hours before dropping back to 974 in 12 hours as it weakens.

The decrease in pressure to 972 has also upped temperatures in the CAA McClure Straight by a degree or two celsius and the edge of the CAA/CAB in this area also by an appx degree celsius as it sucks in warmth from the CAA. So even more damage to the ice.

Quite a interesting storm for the end of July especially where its decided to play out its actions.

[be cause]

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3017.0;attach=277740;image

 This is probably the most destructive 3 day forecast I've seen . As bbr rightly says the ECM forecast to day 10 continues to be no less than 'catastrophic' . I'm sure there'll be some ice somewhere within the basin come September , but I'm certainly not confident enough as to where it will be to draw a map !
 It looks like the die is loaded . For three months now , pretty much only the worst forecasts verify and for three months we have watched the ice disappear and what's left deteriorate .
  A page or 2 back someone mentioned floes spreading back into the Laptev . Floes ? There is very little ice left on the Atlantic side that merits the name ! Below is how 100'000 sq kms of ice look today N. of Laptev .. I can see a few floes on the right side and a few bits and pieces embedded in the now dispersing mush . Lucky Polarstern isn't on the hunt for a floe this year !
 https://go.nasa.gov/2WZGrfw

I was going to comment earlier that it looks like the ice is kissing the Atlantic side archipelagos goodbye in aluminium's gif and WV . I wonder when they will see it back . Again , here ,  the average size of floe is a fraction of even last year's . The retreating ice will be protected by the remnants of thicker floes and ridges as the rest of the mush melts . This may help slow the retreat as it did on  the Laptev side recently where the remnants are now the perishing vanguard as the front heads south again .
             very pessimistic , but perfectly happy b.c.
 
 
 

[Jim Hunt]

It's bed time here at Great White Con Ivory Towers on the shores of Santa's Secret Summer Swimming Pool.

The barometer on the other side of the North Pole is reading 971 hPa according to the CMC.

How low will (s)he go?

[be cause]

 'nite , Jim . That 58mb differential across the basin should get things moving ..

[Pagophilus]

Another view of that gap that has appeared near the pole.  This time with contrast etc pushed to extremes to bring out some of the surrounding ice structure.  More than one satellite pass on this image field, and the image is a little fuzzy around the pole itself.

It's bed time here at Great White Con Ivory Towers on the shores of Santa's Secret Summer Swimming Pool.

(Jim, I believe this is where Santa is currently paddling and letting the reindeer bathe)

[Pagophilus]

So a cyclone starts laying waste to one third of the Arctic while the rest of the ice is bathed in direct sunshine while being caressed by warming winds...

What twisted mind thought up this scenario?

(image tweaked heavily for contrast on Photoshop)

[Rod]

Very nice image Pagophilus! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[JayW]

Another view of that gap that has appeared near the pole. 

RAMMB contrast boosted.
Needs click

[Pagophilus]

Very nice image Pagophilus! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

Thanks Rod.  Praise from you is praise indeed!  I would like to share this prize with my close colleague, Adobe Photoshop, and acknowledge the near-infinite forbearance of my lovely wife. 

[tybeedave]

ty Jim Hunt,

i can't find it myself now either.  musta have been a glitch in my electronics.

td

[bbr2315]

So a cyclone starts laying waste to one third of the Arctic while the rest of the ice is bathed in direct sunshine while being caressed by warming winds...

What twisted mind thought up this scenario?

(image tweaked heavily for contrast on Photoshop)

Are you implying a GAC / GAAC combo is bad for the ice? Now that's just crazy talk. It's crazy!

[Gumbercules]

What's with closet deniers making multiple usernames... Being disingenuous reeks through every crack that it can.  In other words it's easy to spot.

You mean me?

<No he did not mean you. O>

[weatherdude88]

JAXA and Uni Hamburg data show 2020 as compact, as the most compact years in the data set. NSIDC compactness has moved towards the middle of the pact.



I would be surprised if NSIDC extent finishes in the top 4 this year.

High resolution sea ice extent may no longer be the lowest in the data set within 1-day.



<Removed goading and unnecessary quotes. Focus on data please. O>

[prokaryotes]

Sea surface temperatures (SST) continue to rise around the perimeter of the #Arctic Ocean due to lack of sea ice.

via https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1287838987885744128

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

I would be surprised if NSIDC extent finishes in the top 4 this year.

I'm willing to guess you should be prepared for a surprise then. After the intensity of the GAAC let up, the extent loss slowdown was almost inevitable, but I think maintaining the stall/slowdown for the rest of the season would be even more surprising considering the current SSTs in the regions the peripheral ice is expanding into, as well as the dropping compaction/concentration in the already thoroughly discussed thinning regions (Beaufort, CAA, CAB, etc).

I can be counted among those expecting a significant increase in extent dropoff post-Beaufort storm/drifting ice warmup, and I believe the area measurements showing consistent melt supports this. Even 2012 has some slowdowns around this time of year, so I'm not entirely sure why some of us are convinced this is going to be a year that struggles to crack the bottom 5 in extent. Have you seen the air and water temps in the Arctic Circle recently? They might make you reconsider.

[oren]

A couple of less frequent charts (thanks to Steven and Wipneus).
The first calculates the ratio of total ice extent in surface melting state divided by total ice extent. Data from AMSR2 3.125km grid JAXA. It is easy to see how exceptional early July was. Keep in mind melting/wet surface means low albedo, at a time when the sky was exceptionally clear over the basin.
The second counts the pixels in SMOS, weighted by color. It appears at record low for the date.

[Michael Hauber]

2011 was a year when we switched from fast melt with strong compaction to low pressure dominated weather.  Extent drop was well ahead of 2007, and dropped back substantially.  I speculate that eventually dispersion was enough that a faster melt rate resumed, but that took a while and was not over in just a few days, and also that the melt ended a bit early as not much heat was able to get into the ocean in the central pack, however I haven't looked in detail at weather later in the season to see if weather changes may have driven the following speed up and slow down.

[pearscot]

Very nice image Pagophilus! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

Thanks Rod.  Praise from you is praise indeed!  I would like to share this prize with my close colleague, Adobe Photoshop, and acknowledge the near-infinite forbearance of my lovely wife.

WOW! And yes, that's the literal story of 2020: Unrelenting weather. It's wild because I can't really think of a more specific event to hit either region to cause the most damage to the ice, but alas life imitates art.

[glennbuck]

 

[ArcticMelt2]

Now the center of the cyclone is located about 500 km from Barrow. The waves got even higher.

[glennbuck]

969

[ArcticMelt2]

969

Does this allow the cyclone to become one of the strongest summer cyclones? In recent years, only three cyclones dropped below 970, two in August 2012 and 2016, and one in June 2018?

[glennbuck]

969

Does this allow the cyclone to become one of the strongest summer cyclones? In recent years, only three cyclones dropped below 970, two in August 2012 and 2016, and one in June 2018?

Just going off latest data, don't know what past records are for GAC.
It is picking up see where it is later today!   

Something i had noticed on the NASA website about the 2012 cyclone, quote/ “Decades ago, a storm of the same magnitude would have been less likely to have as large an impact on the sea ice because the ice cover was thicker and more expansive,” Parkinson added.

NASA estimated, that there have only been about eight storms of similar strength during the month of August over the past 34 years of satellite records.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/78812/2012-arctic-cyclone

So was wondering on the thickness of the ice in 2012 vs 2020. As thickness is becoming lower each decade, smaller storms and cyclones are more likely to do similar damage to larger storms/cyclones of the past. If 2012 had thicker ice than 2020 on July 28th would be interesting to see.

[S.Pansa]

Talking about Barrow. Worldview gives us a first hint what the storm will do to the ice.
The GIF shows  the  ice edge in the Chukchi/Beaufort region: change between 21st and 28th (click to play ...)

[OffTheGrid]

Another view of that gap that has appeared near the pole. 

RAMMB contrast boosted.
Needs click

This illustrates very well a transition zone from ice weakly bound into a sheet moving in relatively uniform motion, to a region outside where Its sloshing around in an unglued slurry. Is it relief of compaction pressure? More likely that than any actual frozen glue ice holding the fragments together.

[OffTheGrid]

969

Does this allow the cyclone to become one of the strongest summer cyclones? In recent years, only three cyclones dropped below 970, two in August 2012 and 2016, and one in June 2018?

Just going off latest data, don't know what past records are for GAC.
It is picking up see where it is later today!   

Something i had noticed on the NASA website about the 2012 cyclone, quote/ “Decades ago, a storm of the same magnitude would have been less likely to have as large an impact on the sea ice because the ice cover was thicker and more expansive,” Parkinson added.

NASA estimated, that there have only been about eight storms of similar strength during the month of August over the past 34 years of satellite records.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/78812/2012-arctic-cyclone

So was wondering on the thickness of the ice in 2012 vs 2020. As thickness is becoming lower each decade, smaller storms and cyclones could do similar damage to larger storms/cyclones of the past? If 2012 had thicker ice than 2020 on July 28th would be interesting to see.

Absolutely.
Heres worldviews of the central Beaufort yesterday and day before, before the storm rolled in.
The gray areas further out are finely fragmented slush. Closer to the CAA, this slush shares ocean with big open area and what could be confused with large rounded stable looking floes.... Until you choose to go beyond the maximum resolution of worldviews, of 250m per pixel. On sentinel playground they are reveiled as loosly bound agglomgrations of various thickness, with big gaps of ocean all through them.

[grixm]

Both 0z GFS and ECMWF initialized with the storm at 968 hPa

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GIF!