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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3900 on: July 28, 2020, 08:12:24 AM »
While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.
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wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3901 on: July 28, 2020, 08:16:48 AM »
Look at how much dispersion has happened in the Beaufort over the 5 hours. Alaska is off the bottom of the image.

Click to play.

OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3902 on: July 28, 2020, 08:19:27 AM »

While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.
Yes. Foehn winds off Greenland and Elesmere have been fueling the storm, and expanding the megacrack. Last three day animation. Crick-crick!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3903 on: July 28, 2020, 08:23:52 AM »

While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.
Yes. Foehn winds off Greenland and Elesmere have been fueling the storm, and expanding the megacrack. Last three day animation. Crick-crick!
Not only that, look at the SST anomaly in the Lincoln sea and west of Ellesmere.  ???
Is this a first?
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OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3904 on: July 28, 2020, 08:27:28 AM »
Looking at whats up in the various atmospheric levels up to the tropopause, leaves me not so sure this cyclone is a short term visitor.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3905 on: July 28, 2020, 08:35:00 AM »
 8)

NeilHamp

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3906 on: July 28, 2020, 08:39:11 AM »
July Arcus report now out https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/july

"Overall, the situation is little changed from the June report. There is a collective view that September ice extent will be reasonably close to the observed linear trend line, implying there will be no rapid decreases in Arctic sea-ice extent through the rest of the summer leading to a new record low."

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3907 on: July 28, 2020, 08:45:13 AM »
July Arcus report now out https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/july

"Overall, the situation is little changed from the June report. There is a collective view that September ice extent will be reasonably close to the observed linear trend line, implying there will be no rapid decreases in Arctic sea-ice extent through the rest of the summer leading to a new record low."

OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3908 on: July 28, 2020, 08:47:38 AM »

While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.
Yes. Foehn winds off Greenland and Elesmere have been fueling the storm, and expanding the megacrack. Last three day animation. Crick-crick!
Not only that, look at the SST anomaly in the Lincoln sea and west of Ellesmere.  ???
Is this a first?
Quite possibly. Especially for this time of year. South of Elsmere is even scarier with actual SST. Offshore winds over shelfdrops, when deep currents of warmer saltier stuff oppose will do this kind of thing.
Worse news? Those temps and anomalies are 42 hrs old. They only update every 4 days. Look out next update!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3909 on: July 28, 2020, 08:50:26 AM »
'nite , Jim . That 58mb differential across the basin should get things moving ..

After much tossing and turning I woke early this morning to the sight of a "picture perfect" reverse dipole. 969 hPa plays 1029, according to the CMC at least:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1288002593789181952
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OffTheGrid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3910 on: July 28, 2020, 08:54:24 AM »
July Arcus report now out https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/july

"Overall, the situation is little changed from the June report. There is a collective view that September ice extent will be reasonably close to the observed linear trend line, implying there will be no rapid decreases in Arctic sea-ice extent through the rest of the summer leading to a new record low."

Yes!
And also the adolescent, mum with two cubs, and lone male polar bears adored in last few weeks by the Mosaic PR writer will return from the dead!
 ???

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3911 on: July 28, 2020, 09:01:17 AM »
Musta have been a glitch in my electronics.

Not necessarily. As the day goes by WorldView can update imagery near the Pole using data from later passes of the satellite.

I documented that on here a few years ago, but don't have time to look it up now.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3912 on: July 28, 2020, 09:02:48 AM »
While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.

One of the numerous reasons for "Snow White's" sleepless night!

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1287884458612396032
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3913 on: July 28, 2020, 09:16:28 AM »
While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.

One of the numerous reasons for "Snow White's" sleepless night!

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1287884458612396032
Sleepless in the Arctic?  ::)

MYI has been melting and moving westwards toward the garlic press - that could soon open up for business. I wonder what's worse, reaching a new record minimum, or losing the MYI?
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3914 on: July 28, 2020, 09:29:48 AM »
DMI north of 80N temperature and GFS 3-day average wind. Both look unusual.

NeilHamp

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3915 on: July 28, 2020, 09:30:25 AM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3916 on: July 28, 2020, 09:39:41 AM »
DMI north of 80N temperature and GFS 3-day average wind. Both look unusual.
I've been wanting to post that graph for a few days now, but I was waiting to see how high it would get. It was one of my more crazy predictions for this season that hadn't happened yet, that the temp would go above the green line due to extreme eurasian heatwaves. And now it seems to be happening.

And is this graph prove of what people here have been teaching me, that clouds keep the temperatures high this late in the season, while the GAAC caused temperatures to drop as insolation dropped?
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Paddy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3917 on: July 28, 2020, 09:41:25 AM »
DMI north of 80N temperature and GFS 3-day average wind. Both look unusual.

I think it's a bit of a stretch to call DMI 80N all that unusual.  If it keeps rising, maybe.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3918 on: July 28, 2020, 09:41:59 AM »
Yeah it seems that way but unless we end up with a major dipole anomaly the last 10 days of May temps won't reach  the blue line any earlier than normal.

It's really amazing how consistent it is during the summer.

It appears to be tied to solar altitude
I have a funny feeling that we'll see more extreme Eurasian heat waves penetrate deep into the CAB this year. But I also know that this goes against all common knowledge, that temps in the Arctic can only go above the green line when we have a BOE.

So I'm probably wrong about this, but somehow I think it could happen. I guess we'll know in a few months from now...
I wasn't wrong.  ;D
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3919 on: July 28, 2020, 09:42:40 AM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.
Melting fever affects many commentors at this time of year, and particularly when things are looking bad for the ice. One of the symptoms is a curious intolerance of discordant views.
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wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3920 on: July 28, 2020, 10:07:51 AM »
Seen several mentions of MYI. Except for the odd floe, seems to be next none of it left.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3921 on: July 28, 2020, 10:11:09 AM »
There is often a discrepancy between conservative scientific predictions for the melting season and the amateur predictions on this forum. This years, it "feels" "we" are right. NeilHamp, rest assured said posts were not criticizing you, but were expressing incredulousness at the conservative scientific prediction of the Arcus report. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Time will tell if said sentiment was correct or not.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 11:32:37 AM by oren »

NeilHamp

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3922 on: July 28, 2020, 10:47:44 AM »
Thanks for the response, Oren.
Much appreciated.
Apologies for my seeming over reaction.
The requests to remove the post did give me cause for concern!
It looked like an attempt to shut down reputable scientific comment.

BTW I too cannot quite understand why Arcus are still predicting such a "high" September Sea Ice Extent. We can only wait and see, but their median prediction has been relatively close recently.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 11:05:22 AM by NeilHamp »

RikW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3923 on: July 28, 2020, 11:23:43 AM »
DMI north of 80N temperature and GFS 3-day average wind. Both look unusual.
I've been wanting to post that graph for a few days now, but I was waiting to see how high it would get. It was one of my more crazy predictions for this season that hadn't happened yet, that the temp would go above the green line due to extreme eurasian heatwaves. And now it seems to be happening.

And is this graph prove of what people here have been teaching me, that clouds keep the temperatures high this late in the season, while the GAAC caused temperatures to drop as insolation dropped?

Well, it's sort terrifying to me; If there is ice/snow, it normally won't rise high above melting point; So there was always a sort of ceiling to that graph. That appears to be broken through, so or there is no ice/snow left or the amount of energy/warmth is so high it can break through the ceiling (don't know if that is even possible in such an ice-covered area?).

Seeing a graph like this showing this strenghtens my believe we are in an extraordinary melting season.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3924 on: July 28, 2020, 11:49:26 AM »
Concentration for the 26th, 27th and both combined.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 12:53:25 PM by BornFromTheVoid »
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JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3925 on: July 28, 2020, 12:09:25 PM »
More stretch marks showing up above 88°N.
Click to run. Contrast increased for detail.
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be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3926 on: July 28, 2020, 12:29:06 PM »
SnowWhite is certainly good at advertising the pantomime .. :)
 Hi FG .. if something hasn't happened in the last 10 years it is certainly fair to describe it as unusual .. you beat me to reporting it too .. last eve. was the first time I didn't check in ages .. too much goings on .. :)

I too failed to notice the Arcus report was Sept. mean .. but does that mean anything ? .. I'll be watching for the hour of minimum , not the whole month .

 Interesting to note .. the 133 kmph winds in OTG's screenshot are over the centre point of the GAAC .. the calmest spot in the Arctic this last month ; from becalmed to hurricane force .. and almost certainly the strongest winds in the CAB that I have seen . b.c.

« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 12:34:59 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3927 on: July 28, 2020, 12:33:05 PM »
Concentration for the 26th, 27th and both combined.

There is a mistake with the left image. It's labeled 2012.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3928 on: July 28, 2020, 12:53:47 PM »

There is a mistake with the left image. It's labeled 2012.

Nice catch, fixed!
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3929 on: July 28, 2020, 12:58:58 PM »
SnowWhite is certainly good at advertising the pantomime .. :)
 Hi FG .. if something hasn't happened in the last 10 years it is certainly fair to describe it as unusual .. you beat me to reporting it too .. last eve. was the first time I didn't check in ages .. too much goings on .. :)

I too failed to notice the Arcus report was Sept. mean .. but does that mean anything ? .. I'll be watching for the hour of minimum , not the whole month .

 Interesting to note .. the 133 kmph winds in OTG's screenshot are over the centre point of the GAAC .. the calmest spot in the Arctic this last month ; from becalmed to hurricane force .. and almost certainly the strongest winds in the CAB that I have seen . b.c.
I've got your back buddy. I'm the all seeing eye...  ::)

Mind you that those hurricane strength winds reported by OTG are at the 250 hPa level. So nothing unusual about those IMO.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3930 on: July 28, 2020, 01:05:28 PM »
NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3931 on: July 28, 2020, 01:18:59 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GIF!
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3932 on: July 28, 2020, 01:25:13 PM »
Could be we see the Nares Strait emptying out into the Lincoln Sea instead of Baffin Bay.

This is cray talk...

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3933 on: July 28, 2020, 01:33:42 PM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.
Melting fever affects many commenters at this time of year, and particularly when things are looking bad for the ice. One of the symptoms is a curious intolerance of discordant views.

Agreed.  Science does not consist of singing with the choir, but presenting the evidence and debating it.  Often what does not fit proves to be the most interesting and revealing.

Attached is another highly tweaked image of the ice around the pole.  Looks like 'the gap' is not the only area of weakness developing near the pole.  Image needs to be clicked on to obtain sufficient detail.
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3934 on: July 28, 2020, 01:34:43 PM »
Concentration for the 26th, 27th and both combined.

Again, an excellent graphic for comparative purposes (after the year/date correction) :)

The effect of the LP system after a single day is noticeable and as expected with the 'loose' ice of the Beaufort following the paths of the wind direction.

However, for me, the most interesting feature is the juxtaposition of the LP and Hp systems, a reverse dipole configuration, that is reducing compaction of the ice in the form of an arc across the CAB following the profile of the HP system. Will the CAB divide along the arc of lower concentration? I hope to watch this development with considerable interest.

Please continue to post this interesting and informative comparative graphic.

+1
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3935 on: July 28, 2020, 01:36:23 PM »
Could be we see the Nares Strait emptying out into the Lincoln Sea instead of Baffin Bay.

This is cray talk...

I think the current has changed direction once or twice but these have been aftermaths of atlantic hurricanes over quebec, newfoundland.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3936 on: July 28, 2020, 01:44:59 PM »
The white area is getting smaller.

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3937 on: July 28, 2020, 01:54:23 PM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.

As oren stated, the image was a reaction to the report, not to you reporting on the report.

Specifically it was a reaction to two statements within the summary that, "the situation is little changed from the June report... there will be no rapid decreases in Arctic sea-ice extent through the rest of the summer." I was not responding to the actual extent predictions, and I don't know whether there will be a record low. I understand the post was low effort, but my reasons for finding the summary statement worthy of derision will be obvious to many posters given the recent discussion, the current weather, and what we've watched unfold since May (and June).

In other news, area is now following what extent did earlier in the month and bending downwards. With it, compaction has also come way down.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 02:17:56 PM by wdmn »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3938 on: July 28, 2020, 02:03:42 PM »
Here's a composite of the different worldview images sources today, with the bottom part (Greenland and CAA) filled in with yesterdays data.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3939 on: July 28, 2020, 02:12:55 PM »
I think it's a bit of a stretch to call DMI 80N all that unusual.  If it keeps rising, maybe.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3940 on: July 28, 2020, 02:17:58 PM »
Another quite large daily drop in area. We are now below 4 million km^2.

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3941 on: July 28, 2020, 02:23:28 PM »
969

Does this allow the cyclone to become one of the strongest summer cyclones? In recent years, only three cyclones dropped below 970, two in August 2012 and 2016, and one in June 2018?

I think it's not really surprising that it went/goes lower than expected by the models because the models do most probably not put into account the vast area of warm open water. I think some of the models reach their limits and algorithms sooner or later have to be adapted to the new normal.

In addition to the area and temps there is probably an even more hidden factor of thickness of the warm layers at the surface. Even if the first two, area and temps are calculated properly, the amount of warm waters in the column due to long intense insolation this year is kind of new.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3942 on: July 28, 2020, 02:37:29 PM »
00z now shows a 969mb low.
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igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3943 on: July 28, 2020, 02:40:31 PM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.

Reading that article it looks quite poor in many aspects and leaves out several key aspects of this melting season.

I did not reply first to not brake loose back and forth bickering but since you insist I recommend to at least consider other sources as well and then the 30+ forecasters are easily outnumbered and overvoted in this forum alone which, as I believe, is a reputable source as well  ;) ;) ;)

Also keep in mind that a few special characters who disappeared from this place recently are suspected to be back under a new nickname and looking at the number of posts etc. would at least raise the question.

Last but not least we cannot predict with certainty that a stall and/or early minimum cannot happen but at the moment all signs hint at another outcome than that.

Either way a 4.3M km2 outcome is a bit extreme even considering the possibility. 4M km2 and below is as certain as it can get IMO.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 02:49:57 PM by igs »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3944 on: July 28, 2020, 02:49:56 PM »
Another quite large daily drop in area. We are now below 4 million km^2.


So extent losses are slowing, area losses are growing. 

(looks nervously at speedometer, tightens seat belt).
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3945 on: July 28, 2020, 02:53:33 PM »
Back to the current state of the ice...

The outer bands from the cyclone are not being kind to the ice in parts of the CAA.

This gif from RAMMB CIRA shows the ice in the Melville Sound moving towards the Barrow Strait.

Click to play
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 03:14:53 PM by wdmn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3946 on: July 28, 2020, 02:56:44 PM »
The SIPN report is interesting. Thanks for the link to it. It's clear to me that the most of the models of the experts are not incorporating the effects of the weather, in particular the anomalous amounts of sunshine this summer. The lack of clouds over the pole has given us the best view of the ice we have ever had in midsummer.

For all the amateur enthusiasts here take note, most of the experts will be proven wrong. We don't know how the melting season will end but it is pretty clear already that the predictions of most of those models are way off.

Something very different has happened with the weather the past 2 years. Spring has come on very fast and the atmosphere over the pole has been very warm aloft. We will learn more about this weird polar weather from folks like Judah Cohen and Zach Labe than we will from these experts on ice. It's the changing weather that is making these forecasts go south.

Increasing amounts of ocean heat in the northern hemisphere are destabilizing the weather. The lower atmosphere is anomalously thick in the tropics and anomalously thick at the north pole because there's excess heat in the tropical and temperate oceans and the polar seas. That's why we are seeing more blocking highs and more warm air domes over the north pole.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3947 on: July 28, 2020, 03:06:08 PM »
Looks like the icepack edge is melting out rapidly E and N of Severnaya Zemlya.  More so than is yet apparent on AMSR2.  Probably hasn't yet fell below a certain concentration threshold, but that cannot be far away.

The more I view Freegrass' latest nullschool 5 day forecast animation (thx Freegrass!) for winds in this area, the more it becomes apparent that much of the ice in this image is likely to be pushed towards the south Laptev Sea, and we know how warm those waters are...

The opening to the Laptev from the Atlantic could soon be much wider.

S.Z. is at far right of image. 

Image heavily tweaked for contrast, reduced to monochrome for clarity.  Click to enlarge... much more is evident in magnification.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 03:49:05 PM by Pagophilus »
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3948 on: July 28, 2020, 03:51:02 PM »

Increasing amounts of ocean heat in the northern hemisphere are destabilizing the weather. The lower atmosphere is anomalously thick in the tropics and anomalously thick at the north pole because there's excess heat in the tropical and temperate oceans and the polar seas. That's why we are seeing more blocking highs and more warm air domes over the north pole.

 
Lockdowns, Australia 2019/2020 record Bushfires, Siberia Bushfires, record temperatures, a lot of there Models will not of accounted for this. As the Climate Crisis increases each year there Models will not be able to keep up with the more unpredictable/chaotic weather anomalies. Observations on a daily basis like ASIF will become more accurate and a better measure than the Models predictions IMHO.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 04:44:10 PM by glennbuck »

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3949 on: July 28, 2020, 04:00:34 PM »

Increasing amounts of ocean heat in the northern hemisphere are destabilizing the weather. The lower atmosphere is anomalously thick in the tropics and anomalously thick at the north pole because there's excess heat in the tropical and temperate oceans and the polar seas. That's why we are seeing more blocking highs and more warm air domes over the north pole.

This is very important I believe. And that is why I believe that the aftermath of 2020 is going to be significantly different from the aftermath of 2012. Then, a huge storm stirred up and released during August the "insolation-reserves" accumulated during 2 or 3 years, hence the recovery years of 2013 and 2014.

Now, however, as seas are getting ever warmer, the extreme insolation of this summer will be stored for later use (unless a huge storm releases it - the current storm does not seem to be strong enough for that job, although I know that I am no expert to judge that) during winter and then 2021 (with even more heat added to the Earth system contiunuously)...as things stand we will have an extreme freeze season and possibly another freakish melt season in 2021.