The 2020 melting season

[BornFromTheVoid]

Now just 4 of the previous 20 melt seasons beat the 2012 minimum. However, all but 2 get 2020 down to 2nd lowest on record.

[Tom_Mazanec]

About what I would expect. 2012 was a freak, but each normal year since then is getting a little bit worse.

[Jim Hunt]

SnowWhite is certainly good at advertising the pantomime ..

(S)he's at it again b.c.

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1288136728713338880

P.S. In case anybody looks that closely "3-6-7"!

[ArcticMelt2]

Note that now the average forecast of ice in September is even more than in 2019. 4.35 vs 4.28

https://www.arcus.org/files/resize/sio/29668/2019_sio_july_report_fig1_arctic_sorted_extent-700x509.png

https://www.arcus.org/files/resize/sio/29668/2019_sio_july_report_fig1_arctic_sorted_extent-700x509.png

But the forecast of the PIOMAS model - the APL lab this year is much lower.

[be cause]

Jim .. could you please explain the value of your WV 3-6-7 image and perhaps a link to wv so those like me can go look ourselves ? Cheers ! b.c.

 

[bbr2315]

Jim .. could you please explain the value of your WV 3-6-7 image and perhaps a link to wv so those like me can go look ourselves ? Cheers ! b.c.

Attached!

[D-Penguin]

Increasing amounts of ocean heat in the northern hemisphere are destabilizing the weather. The lower atmosphere is anomalously thick in the tropics and anomalously thick at the north pole because there's excess heat in the tropical and temperate oceans and the polar seas. That's why we are seeing more blocking highs and more warm air domes over the north pole.

The 'blocking highs' usually occur over areas outside of the Arctic. So, I am not sure what the mechanism would be to cause advection, from such a weather system, over the North Pole.

I agree with the thrust of your explanation about the destabilization of the weather.

IMHO the most important element about this change in weather pattern is missing from your explanation. Namely, the behavior of the Jet Stream.

IMO it is the breakdown of the Jet Stream that allows the cold air to spill out of the Arctic to be replaced by the climatic advection into the Arctic that creates the weather and temperature anomalies in the Arctic...What happens outside the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic.

Today's Jet Stream shows no barrier to advection from the Equator to the North Pole...Motorway Access!!!

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/07/28/0600Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,503

[aslan]

I am not sure it was said, but Ostrov Vrangel and Mys Vankarem reported thunderstorm, and with gusts up to 18 m/s (about 37 knots) for Ostrov Vrangel when the front crossed the island. As others as said, it is no surprise that the low is stronger than forecasted.

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2020&mes=07&day=27&hora=12
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=25282&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2020&mes=07&day=28&hora=12

[ArcticMelt2]

The height of individual waves at Barrow also exceeds 2 meters, which is more than the forecast.

[KenB]

Is that open water I see through the clouds? Did the whole thing fall apart?

GIF of fast ice on the east coast of Greenland.

Looking at today's image, I can't see much W. of that island, but it looks like the ice is still intact, though cracked, on the E. side.  So now I'm wondering if that darkness y'day was the shadow of a cloud rather than open water.

[kynde]

The height of individual waves at Barrow also exceeds 2 meters, which is more than the forecast.

Guestimating wave height offshore from the waves breaking to the shore is extremely difficult. Waves gain height when they approach shallower waters. Also the period cannot be properly seen from these images.

I'm not saying there aren't waves offshore, there has to be and a bad thing for the ice is that such fresh waves generated by the storm have short periods, just pointing out that the web cam imagery is not a very good proxy for the offshore waves.

Edit: windy shows almost 2m waves with 6s period hitting barrow and 2.6m with 7s period further north hitting the ice. That should give a proper stir.

[ArcticMelt2]

Guestimating wave height offshore from the waves breaking to the shore is extremely difficult. Waves gain height when the approach shallower waters. Also the period cannot be properly seen from these images.

I'm not saying there aren't waves offshore, there has to be and a bad thing for the ice is that such fresh waves generated by the storm have short periods, just pointing out that the web cam imagery is not a very good proxy for the offshore waves.

Edit: windy shows almost 2m waves with 6s period hitting barrow and 2.6m with 7s period further north hitting the ice. That should give a proper stir.

Shore structures, houses and garages provide an easy way to estimate wave heights.

The official forecast was 1.5 meters.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg277491.html#msg277491

Marine forecast for Utqiagvik area has waves building to 5 ft. (1.5m).

[kynde]

Shore structures, houses and garages provide an easy way to estimate wave heights.

For those that break yes, but from them it's hard to deduce what the wave height is offshore which what the forecasts are about and what we're also interested in. It's called shoaling.

[ArcticMelt2]

Shore structures, houses and garages provide an easy way to estimate wave heights.

For those that break yes, but from them it's hard to deduce what the wave height is offshore which what the forecasts are about and what we're also interested in. It's called shoaling.

I think that the official forecast is also given for coastal waves. So there are no errors in reasoning. The individual waves are indeed higher than the official forecast for Barrow. You cannot refute it.

Edit: windy shows almost 2m waves with 6s period hitting barrow and 2.6m with 7s period further north hitting the ice. That should give a proper stir.

This is a fresh forecast, which probably included data that the cyclone is more powerful than predicted. In yesterday's official forecast, the wave height is less.

[oren]

Waves hitting Barrow shore are only of marginal interest to the melting season, please do not take this any further in this thread. The ice cares about the waves near the ice, obviously, not about the surf.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GIF!

[gerontocrat]

The sea ice on the East coast of Greenland all the way up does not look in good shape.

Image 28/7/2020 North East Water - Sentinel 1 from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/northeastwater.uk.php

[Gizmo]

Ouch!  Bye bye Beaufort ice.  Looks like the CAA will get broiled too.

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GIF!

[ArcticMelt2]

The cyclone began to weaken.

[gandul]

Waves hitting Barrow shore are only of marginal interest to the melting season, please do not take this any further in this thread. The ice cares about the waves near the ice, obviously, not about the surf.

Indeed they are more interesting when they start to bring castaway floes to the shores

[D-Penguin]

Note that now the average forecast of ice in September is even more than in 2019. 4.35 vs 4.28

https://www.arcus.org/files/resize/sio/29668/2019_sio_july_report_fig1_arctic_sorted_extent-700x509.png

I am going with the model produced by the Sanwa Elementary School...based on a wide 'U' profile through September and probably a new record or very near record minimum.

[ArcticMelt2]

Waves hitting Barrow shore are only of marginal interest to the melting season, please do not take this any further in this thread. The ice cares about the waves near the ice, obviously, not about the surf.

Indeed they are more interesting when they start to bring castaway floes to the shores

We currently don't have webcams in the Beaufort Sea. Therefore, the webcam in Barrow remains the only one for direct observation of waves from the cyclone. In the past years there were webcams on the ice floes, but now they are not.

[Pagophilus]

Ouch!  Bye bye Beaufort ice.  Looks like the CAA will get broiled too.

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GIF!

At least the wind speeds go down fairly rapidly after today. 

[Freegrass]

Is that open water I see through the clouds? Did the whole thing fall apart?

GIF of fast ice on the east coast of Greenland.

Looking at today's image, I can't see much W. of that island, but it looks like the ice is still intact, though cracked, on the E. side.  So now I'm wondering if that darkness y'day was the shadow of a cloud rather than open water.

It looks like you may be right Ken. Thank you Gerontocrat for the image and website you just posted. This is part of an image a little more south of the one you posted, and shows the area I posted yesterday.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/joekelbugt.uk.php

It shows that the ice is badly cracked, but no open water (yet). So it must have been the shadow of a cloud. Thanks for clearing that up!

Edit: I see now that this Sentinel-1 image is from the 26th. But I doubt it was open water. It must have been the shadow of a cloud. We'll know more in a few days from now.

Edit 2: there's an image from the 27th as well on that site. And still no open water.
Watching Barr testify, and apparently I was a little quick looking at that website. My bad!

[marcel_g]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GIF!

I look at that and wonder what's going to happen with the Atlantic side? I know the winds aren't that strong, but they're consistent across the entire front, and blowing for 5 days straight, from Svalbard towards the ESS. That will do something to the ice. What, I don't know, but it'll do something. Disperse ice on the Laptev side, and push the entire front back, maybe? Will it bring warm Atlantic water farther into the central pack? Or will it still go down the drop off?

[aslan]

Also the ligthning map from alaska weather service is impressive, with many strikes other Chukchi sea. Since 2016 we have seen strikes more to the North than this, but still having ground strikes at 71°N over sea is no small acheviement...

There was a tropopause folding along the poleward flank of the cold front, with a strong PV anomaly along the frontal slope. Classical for this kind of front. But on the equatorward side, warmth and moisture was extraordinary. It is hard to find CAPE value as it is usually calculated from surface. Here cumulonimbus started from above the boundary layer, around 900 hPa - 800 hPa. But playing the game to make sounding on the model everywhere possible, CAPE value up to 1000 J/kg appeared on the Monday (between 06Z and 15Z). The warm sector was extraordinary for the Arctic and strong isentropic lift occured in consequence.

[Andre Koelewijn]

Shore structures, houses and garages provide an easy way to estimate wave heights.

For those that break yes, but from them it's hard to deduce what the wave height is offshore which what the forecasts are about and what we're also interested in. It's called shoaling.

I hope Oren will allow this...

The offshore waves already break in part a bit outside the shore. In the picture, you can see a white surf line about 50-100 m away from the beach. There must be an underwater bank there, causing the waves to break, as the maximum height of a wave is limited by the water depth. The remainder of each wave then continues towards the beach, possibly slightly attenuated over those 50-100 m.

The water depth at the bank will vary with tide, and also on a larger timescale, I suppose it is a sand bank at this point. On the archive picture by James Hunt, it seemed to be (almost) absent.

Anyway, this is more for one of the consequences threads than this ice melt thread. 

[ArcticMelt2]

Also the ligthning map from alaska weather service is impressive, with many strikes other Chukchi sea. Since 2016 we have seen strikes more to the North than this, but still having ground strikes at 71°N over sea is no small acheviement...

Lightning strikes in the Arctic are becoming more frequent. Last year, they were observed only 52 km from the North Pole.

https://www.vaisala.com/en/blog/2020-06/revising-record-record-lightning-north-pole

2019 was an exceptional year for Arctic lightning. Vaisala’s Global Lightning Dataset GLD360 recorded more lightning events north of 85°N in 2019 than in 2012-2018 combined, so we plan to conduct regular assessments in 2020 and beyond to provide the most accurate data to scientists studying the area. And of course we’ll have the full year view in our Annual Lightning Report next January.

[Rod]

Note that now the average forecast of ice in September is even more than in 2019. 4.35 vs 4.28

https://www.arcus.org/files/resize/sio/29668/2019_sio_july_report_fig1_arctic_sorted_extent-700x509.png

I am going with the model produced by the Sanwa Elementary School...based on a wide 'U' profile through September and probably a new record or very near record minimum.

Sanwa Elementary School for the win!!! 

This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to predict the sea ice melting season. Those Elementary School kids are very likely to be closer to the final result than a lot of the “experts” when the final numbers are tallied.

[JNap]

The 12Z ECM forecast is out and shows that for the next 5 - 6 days, the Low pressure system will continue to be in the CAA region (though weakening).   And the High pressure will continue in on the Atlantic / Kara side (again, slowly weakening).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020072812&fh=0

Per other more experience contributors, this weather set up would seem be bad for the ice as the pack will get pushed / spread into the warmer waters on the Russian side to melt out given the build up of the ocean heat content from the GAAC in the first 3 weeks of July.

It will be interesting to see the state of the ice in about a week and how much damage has been done. 

[jdallen]

NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

My take away from these images is this:  To catch 2012, the CAA & Beaufort must disintegrate this year the way the ESS, Laptev and Chukchi did in 2012, 2016 & 2019.

And so, what do we have now?  A 969 millibar storm in the Beaufort, & matching high pressure over the Kara.

Potential is very high for the Beaufort to be torn to shreds, and a lot of CAB ice to be thrown into the Laptev "pyre".

[gerontocrat]

DMI Norh of 80 Temperatures.

The 2020 high blip first is getting to be a spike. 2016 had a blip around the same date but less above the green line.

Just maybe an indication of central arctic sea ice resistance to melt crumbling? Certainly one to watch?

[Lord M Vader]

Gerontocrat, also seems like 2008 had a big spike.

[werther]

JNap, good evening,

I just gave it a try on ECMF after a 12 hour day of work and see that you're right. It lasts a lot longer than two days (which was forecasted 6 days ago). So it's mimicking the GAC12, though maybe not as 'deep' as then.
FOOW, great analysis, as ever! The models are fed with trends on the past. They miss the rapid changes. Some years ago, I studied a bit on the transition of warmth/energy through the Rossby waves. I'm just an amateur, but I feel this is a viable mechanism. I even remember a term: 'wave activity flux'. For what it's worth. Somebody may pick it up...
Meanwhile, NOAA daily composites illustrates the unusual temps between 20-26 July, compared to 2012. On 850, 925 and 1000 Mb. Relentless on the Siberian coast, from the CAA-Greenland and from the Atlantic. And topped by the warm, now gone, anticyclone over the Polar region.

D-Penguin, great illustration, the jet-stream seems to spin up the Beaufort Chaser. Same physics as in '12 with GAC!
It must have consequences

[gerontocrat]

Gerontocrat, also seems like 2008 had a big spike.

2008 not as high? But one to watch - might fade away or become an event? A lot of warmth coming up from the CAA / Greenland  and on the Atlantic front?.

[Steven]

I am going with the model produced by the Sanwa Elementary School...based on a wide 'U' profile through September and probably a new record or very near record minimum.

Sanwa Elementary School for the win!!! 

This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to predict the sea ice melting season. Those Elementary School kids are very likely to be closer to the final result than a lot of the “experts” when the final numbers are tallied.

That was the 2019 report, not 2020.  And Sanwa Elementary School actually did worse than everyone else last year (except Wang et al.) 

For 2020, they made a prediction of 4.4 million km2.

[Rod]

You are correct.   I think Penguin accidentally linked to the wrong graph.

The 2020 is below.  I’m still pulling for the kids! Go Sanwa Elementary School!

[Freegrass]

DMI Norh of 80 Temperatures.

The 2020 high blip first is getting to be a spike. 2016 had a blip around the same date but less above the green line.

Just maybe an indication of central arctic sea ice resistance to melt crumbling? Certainly one to watch?

I'm starting to feel prophetic now... My ego is swelling to exuberant proportions...

[RoxTheGeologist]

DMI Norh of 80 Temperatures.

The 2020 high blip first is getting to be a spike. 2016 had a blip around the same date but less above the green line.

Just maybe an indication of central arctic sea ice resistance to melt crumbling? Certainly one to watch?

I'm starting to feel prophetic now... My ego is swelling to exuberant proportions...

That can only happen when there is open water inside 80N.

[werther]

Well Freegrass...you're probably realising your personal text!
And indeed, the spike is remarkable. Less than a week ago I suggested not to take DMI 2m temps above 80 degrees N too important. But under present conditions, energy input is maybe so strong it overrules the usual cooling at 2 m by the melt process.

Oh Rox, hi, but there was lots of open water around in earlier years too... No, it must be atmospheric influx of energy. And I am not forgetting bottom melt through mixing and influx of Atlantic, salty waters. But that has no immediate effect on 2 m temps... (imho).

[gerontocrat]

[
I'm starting to feel prophetic now... My ego is swelling to exuberant proportions...

Watch out for sharp objects. Exuberant Egos can be popped, bitter experience tells me.

[igs]

NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

My take away from these images is this:  To catch 2012, the CAA & Beaufort must disintegrate this year the way the ESS, Laptev and Chukchi did in 2012, 2016 & 2019.

And so, what do we have now?  A 969 millibar storm in the Beaufort, & matching high pressure over the Kara.

Potential is very high for the Beaufort to be torn to shreds, and a lot of CAB ice to be thrown into the Laptev "pyre".

Is it possible that if all comes true that we would need kind of compaction in the 2 weeks before the minimum as well.

This is rarely discussed but the compaction in 2012 just in time before melting stops in the CAB, at least for my understanding, had a significant impact on that last leg to the minimum as compared to the way sooner and faster flattening of the curve in normal years.

In short, now we get dispersion for the ice to melted in warmer waters and later we need the rest to gather in the middle so to say.

Anyone sharing this views or anyone who thinks that this it totally non-sense.

[Rod]

This was posted by MOSAIC today. Uniquorn has more information available on the MOSAIC thread and the buoy thread.

DMI uses a model that is heavily weighted towards the pole and tends to keep the temperature pegged close to 0C over the ice.  The heat flowing over the North Pole right now is incredible!

The weather forecasts are showing lots of WAA from areas that have seen record high temperatures, including Svalbard which is having a historic heat wave.

[Freegrass]

[
I'm starting to feel prophetic now... My ego is swelling to exuberant proportions...

Watch out for sharp objects. Exuberant Egos can be popped, bitter experience tells me.

So true. So let me deflate it quickly... 

[gandul]

Waves hitting Barrow shore are only of marginal interest to the melting season, please do not take this any further in this thread. The ice cares about the waves near the ice, obviously, not about the surf.

Indeed they are more interesting when they start to bring castaway floes to the shores

We currently don't have webcams in the Beaufort Sea. Therefore, the webcam in Barrow remains the only one for direct observation of waves from the cyclone. In the past years there were webcams on the ice floes, but now they are not.

I’m with you on this, I was just being sarcastic (sigh).
I find that webcam thrilling and very on topic but hey that’s just us.

[aslan]

For wave activity flux, anomalies are really showing up over arctic independently from a tropical forcing. The strong arctic anticyclone was a source of an anomalous wave activity, which was not the case in others years with an arctic anticyclone. This patterns breaks into a succesion of waves. This is noteworthy, to my knowldge arctic was never such a strong source of wave activity comapred to the tropics.
For thunderstorms, I must said that it is also quite likely that strikes happenned northward of 80°N but I don't know if the data from the vaisala monitoring network is accesible. Without data, who knows. But data from Alaska network is not meant to register strikes near the pole for sure, it was more an illustration of the convective instability in the warm sector of the cyclone.

[glennbuck]

 

[gandul]

I am going with the model produced by the Sanwa Elementary School...based on a wide 'U' profile through September and probably a new record or very near record minimum.

Sanwa Elementary School for the win!!! 

This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to predict the sea ice melting season. Those Elementary School kids are very likely to be closer to the final result than a lot of the “experts” when the final numbers are tallied.

That was the 2019 report, not 2020.  And Sanwa Elementary School actually did worse than everyone else last year (except Wang et al.) 

For 2020, they made a prediction of 4.4 million km2.

I wonder how Wank et al keep producing what they produce

[ArcticMelt2]

By the way, the waves in 2012 in Barrow were much smaller. Because of the greater distance? Or was there more ice?

Images from Neven's website.

[Rod]

This is what is going on right now. Every single weather map shows extraordinary heat is being blown straight towards the North Pole.  It is silly to argue about the DMI graph right now.

There is much better, and much more accurate data available:

https://earther.gizmodo.com/its-not-just-siberia-as-record-heat-spreads-across-the-1844517909/amp?__twitter_impression=true