The 2020 melting season

[glennbuck]

Arctic sea ice thickness

[D-Penguin]

A side by side animation of the Arctic storm from MODIS worldview (mosaic for the 29th) with sea ice concentration. No concentration data yet for today, hence the blank right panel at the end.

I posted a higher res version on twitter too: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1288395604805267456

(Large file still, click to play)

Thanks for this continuing sequence of the side-by-side animations. That 'arc' of lower concentration stretching right across the CAB seems to be widening, particularly from the CAA. Why would this be happening?

Again, in praise of side by side comparative graphics, eyes are located either side of the nose and not on the forehead and chin.

+1

[colchonero]

I don't get the (excitement about) DMI chart. If green line is the average, and I have seen it notably below during summer( posted here multiple times during recent years) somewhere around 0C line. Then for the green line to be average, there either must have been periods like this one, where we go above the line, or their chart is simply wrong, to put it easy.

[interstitial]

DMI distortion of temperatures:


from 89N to the pole represents about 1% of the area but 10% of the temperature weighting. This approximation does not factor in curvature of the earth.
 
N to pole   Area    Temp weight
89             1%         10%
88             4%         20%
87             9%         30%
86           16%         40%
85           25%         50%
84           36%         60%
83           49%         70%
82           64%         80%
81           81%         90%
80         100%        100%


high temperatures at the pole disproportionately drive the temperature up.

[ArcticMelt2]

Additional bagful were urgently brought to Barrow to strengthen the coastal defenses. The storm waves there actually turned out to be stronger than predicted. Watch the video in 24 hours.

[Freegrass]

DMI volume ain't slowing down... 

[glennbuck]

Sea ice thickness, 28 July 2020.

[gandul]

The Beaufort low is clearly visible on Worldview today. Unusually clear spiral pattern.

So far up north the Coriolis forces are pretty small. There could be some theoretical background for the exceptionally clear spirals. Not that I would know about this. There are pretty pure spirals in tropical storms too so latitude alone cannot be a defining factor for weather to construct pure spirals. The GAC-12 was also pretty huge spiralform, on occasion if I remember correctly.

It's the usual comma-shaped pair of fronts of a extratropical storm more twisted than usual given how concentrated the low is. Happens often with an Arctic ~970 hPa or lower. The fronts are clearly indicated in the Canadian charts above.

Especially beautiful the ones that form in Fall and Winter over Canada, as they are contrasted with the ground.

[glennbuck]

Sea ice thickness, 28 July 2020. DMI. Centre of the north pole area is interesting large chunk is 0.5 -0.75 metres thick, 20-30 Inches!

[JayW]

Loop of the heavily occluded storm. Any fresh snow that fell a could days ago has melted.  I don't see evidence of any new snow that has fallen, that doesn't mean some of these thinks bands can't be generating snow, it's just not showing up on the surface.
Needs click.

[Gray-Wolf]

DMI80N

We have (well Me!) used DMI80N since 07' so we have a clear series of plots that have all been derived the same way so we measure apples with apples when we look at the plots across the years?

That said this 'uptick' on the plot was something I always feared seeing as, to me, it either indicates a very broad/powerful WAA able to cover most of that area for a short period or that the 'pegging of temps' that the latent heat of fusion provides (whilst there is ice to melt?) has broken down due to low ice cover in the region?

Which of the above is driving this uptick?

[ArcticMelt2]

DMI80N

We have (well Me!) used DMI80N since 07' so we have a clear series of plots that have all been derived the same way so we measure apples with apples when we look at the plots across the years?

That said this 'uptick' on the plot was something I always feared seeing as, to me, it either indicates a very broad/powerful WAA able to cover most of that area for a short period or that the 'pegging of temps' that the latent heat of fusion provides (whilst there is ice to melt?) has broken down due to low ice cover in the region?

Which of the above is driving this uptick?

There are great doubts that the Danes correctly measure the temperature north of 80 parallel. Since 2007, more and more often the ice edge retreats beyond this parallel. A change in albedo from 100 to 0 percent should lead to a significant increase in air temperature at the surface. A few degrees. But this is not the case for DMI.

[ArcticMelt2]

Moreover, in 2016, according to the gerontocrat's graph, the area of ice in the Central Arctic decreased by even 50%. Why didn't the temperature on the DMI graph become positive again at this moment?

[oren]

I wish we wouldn't get bogged down by the DMI N80 too much. It's a very easy to use tool but inaccurate, in that it gives very high weight to the Pole and very low weight to the 80 circle, as explained by interstitial above. I wish someone would make an identical tool, simple and easy to use and enabling quick comparison between years, but with accurate weighting. A challenge for a technically-minded user who wants to have a popular website?
Be that as it may, the uptick is indeed indicative of high temps around the pole - a look at FG's animation will easily explain why. There a strong WAA from the Atlantic side and Greenland in the direction of the Pole. The Pole is not in the middle of the Arctic Basic but much closer to the regions where the WAA is coming from, and the ice edge is quite north in that quadrant, even more than usual. This enables the temps to rise in the region of highest weighting. At the same time a lot of the extra ice this year is quite south in the direction of the Beaufort, thus not affecting the N80 measure at all. Add to that very high temps in land areas north of 80, such as Svalbard, Greenland and Ellesmere, with low weights but high departures from 0C.
Thus the uptick is not surprising, is indeed interesting and unusual, but still not a sign of the complete breakdown of the Arctic refrigerator mechanism. This too shall come I am sure, along with the dreaded BOE - but not this year. (I HOPE  ).

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GIF!

[Yuha]

When judging the SIPN predictions, remember that they were made in early July. The deadline for submissions was July 13 but many were made much earlier. I looked at just one example, NSIDC (Meier), and their prediction was based on the situation on July 1.

The SIPN report has this paragraph on a longer term weather forecast (my emphasis):

The atmospheric conditions over the next month will bear on the September sea-ice minima. The NOAA CFSv2 and CanSIPS forecasts of August and September near surface air temperature and sea level pressure were examined (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/). Both models forecast benign pressure patterns over the Arctic Ocean, including the Beaufort/Chukchi seas, for August. The CFSv2 and CanSIPS SLP forecast weak negative pressure anomalies over the Arctic Ocean in September and no strong pressure gradients. The temperature forecasts for both months generally show weak anomalies over the central Arctic, but large positive anomalies equatorward of the ice edge—consistent with an abnormal poleward displacement of the ice edge. Neither model points to strong storminess in August. The stormiest period in the CFS scenario is the remainder of July (the first week of the ensemble of forecasts made July 20). The largest negative SLP anomalies in late July are forecast by the CFS to be just northeast of the Beaufort Sea, which would argue against a rapid expansion of the open water area in this area. If the seasonal forecast verifies then sea-ice retreat will likely not be an extreme in the Beaufort Sea.

That forecast was made on July 20. Has the forecast changed since then? (Asking the weather buffs here as my understanding of weather is limited.)

[glennbuck]

Current temp Up 0.1 C from July 27th 1.7 C, July 28th 1.8 C

[gerontocrat]

Having seen Aluminium's gif, thought the Bremen false color image for July 28 deserved an airing.

I don't remember seeing so clearly and so widely the effect of weather systems, which, when all said and done, were not that severe.   

click image for full size.

[SimonF92]

Current temp Up 0.1 C from July 27th 1.7 C, July 28th 1.8 C

Im interested in how quickly this normalises. Could this be an 'artifactual' effect of large amount of rain on the ice? Bremen clearly showing rain all over the ice.

[Pagophilus]

July 24-28.

2019.

Thanks, Aluminium!  Amazing stuff.  Along with the animations that uniquorn and Freegrass and blumenkraft and others post, your work helps form the basis for this amateur's being able to view the Arctic dynamically.

The ice boundary is moving back on the Atlantic front and bulging out on the Pacific and Siberian sides, just as several of us predicted it would.  That seems likely to continue, along with the accompanying damage to the ice.  I am surprised so much has happened already. 

To see the storm's center imprinted on the AMSR2 map, however briefly, was unexpected to me, and probably reflects the wetness of the ice at that point, I guess. 

[glennbuck]

Current temp Up 0.1 C from July 27th 1.7 C, July 28th 1.8 C

Im interested in how quickly this normalises. Could this be an 'artifactual' effect of large amount of rain on the ice? Bremen clearly showing rain all over the ice.

DMI Norh of 80 Temperatures.

The 2020 high blip first is getting to be a spike. 2016 had a blip around the same date but less above the green line.

Just maybe an indication of central arctic sea ice resistance to melt crumbling? Certainly one to watch?

[Pagophilus]

The storm on today's Worldview.  Contrast tweaked fairly heavily to bring out features, and to 'see' through light cloud.

[glennbuck]

Sea ice concentration 28th July

[glennbuck]

Current temp Up 0.1 C from July 27th 1.7 C, July 28th 1.8 C

Im interested in how quickly this normalises. Could this be an 'artifactual' effect of large amount of rain on the ice? Bremen clearly showing rain all over the ice.

Frivolousz21 could help maybe, if you go a few pages back lots of talk about this.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large Gif!

[Ossifrage]

So, yeah, the CAA. Things are not good. Going forward, there are four significant areas we'll want to watch:

• Viscount Melville Sound: This is part of the Parry Channel (the big, obvious Northwest Passage), and is specifically the sort of roundish basin at the west end of the straight east-west segment of the passage. Last year, the VMS managed to dodge the worst of the damage being done to the CAA ice, but it doesn't look good for this year. It has broken up essentially completely. Some of the ice, especially to the south and easy in the sound, may be starting to develop that sickly discoloration that foretells its doom... although there's just enough clouds in the area to hope that's an illusory effect. Losing this ice completely will be brutal for area and extent numbers, but isn't historically unprecedented.
• M'Clure Strait: This is the Arctic outlet of the Parry Channel, after it makes the bend northwest toward the Beaufort. Right now, this is under cloud from the Beaufort cyclone. But in recent days, we've seen M'Clure take losses from its north outlet (some of which is caused by the cyclone), and develop cracks deeper into the pack. Many of the really bad melt years overall have been really bad for the M'Clure. Right now, based on extent, the strait looks like it's doing okay, but the last clear day on Worldview (the 27th), shows a mess there, with a lot of open water adjacent to Banks Island. Frankly, I think if the VMS melts out, we'll lose M'Clure also.
• Prince Gustav Adolf Sea: It wouldn't be an Ossifrage post  if I didn't talk about the PGAS, right? This has historically been a candidate area for the cold pole of the CAA, and an important part for proper operation of the CAA's "garlic press" functionality. It was a terrible mess last year. So far in 2020, there's been a little indication that the worst of the blowtorching has missed the PGAS, but... I'm not optimistic. The 28th was completely obscured, so we go back to the 27th to see that the PGAS itself was, for the moment, still intact pack ice. Even so, you can easily see that it consists of relic ice floes embedded within weaker refreeze channels. Also, the PGAS is under assault from two sides, so far! To the southeast, the Maclean Strait and Danish Strait are breaking up (and based on conditions to their immediate south, should be expected to clear fairly quickly). Meanwhile, what should be protected ice at the PGAS north boundary with the CAB is instead shedding ice floes into the Crack. Note the Crack isn't as glaringly obvious as it was last season, but is still mechanically doing the same thing: gathering up ice from the southern CAB and the northern CAA, and shunting it WEST toward the Beaufort instead of SOUTH into the garlic press where it belongs. On top of all that, I expect we'll see melting open up another front in the Byam Martin Channel to the southwest within the next couple of weeks. Overall, I think we'll see the fracturing and break-up in the PGAS within days, but I hope that it doesn't clear this season. A truly blue water PGAS would mark the end of the CAA as any sort of safe harbor for MYI, or ice in general.
• Peary Channel/Sverdrup Channel/Massey Sound: These are the bodies of water between Ellef Ringnes and Axel Heiberg, and they tend to share the same fate, so are easiest discussed together. Last year was a brutal slaughter for the ice here, but 2020 had been looking surprisingly good for this area. In particular, the Crack's effect has been uniquely weak in the Peary/Sverdrup area this year. But then the weather turned a hair dryer on and pointed it here. Peary has broken into two or three mega-floes, and further disintegration is inevitable; worse, that signifies that the westward Crack pull is still on the table here. Meanwhile, to the south, ice in Hassel Sound and Norwegian Bay looks awful.

[Alison]

a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.

Lovely 

[glennbuck]

Arctic sea ice area   3,880,926 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area.

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)

Graph by Nico Sun, https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

[Archimid]

I think that the weighting of DMI N80 is a feature, not a bug.



Personally I'm:

1. Fully convinced that it will go down any day now, probably with a vengeance.
2. Very afraid of what happens if it doesn't.

[bluice]

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   

How true.  Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.   The melt is accelerating.

Meanwhile area is record low and keeps dropping like a stone. July melt is starting to show.

[ArcTickTock]

We have got to stop using that old DMI chart. There are better available now. Moyhu, for instance has a better one.

Since this was mentioned in passing I thought people might like to look at it https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#arctic

It's not available for other years  .

Last thing I have to add to this, may want to look at the moyhu data one more time, it is sorta confirming DMI now!  Hmmm?

[Pagophilus]

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   

This from gerontocrat recently on the extent and area thread.
Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.
 

[glennbuck]

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   

This from gerontocrat recently on the extent and area thread.
Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.
 

Is that an indication we could get a record low this year or a BOE!

[pearscot]

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   

This from gerontocrat recently on the extent and area thread.
Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.
 

Is that an indication we could get a record low this year or a BOE!

I do think this year is certainly in the running to beat 2012, but I really don't foresee a BOE (as much as I would like to actually see that come to fruition).

How long is the current cyclone supposed to last? I really struggle trying to find weather forecasts of the arctic and I'm kinda skeptical of what I see on windy.com. I really want to utilize that site more, but I've been comparing the temps they indicate where I live to reality and they are often 10f+ degrees off.

[oren]

How long is the current cyclone supposed to last?

According to FG's wind forecast posted above, the cyclone is supposed to peter out 3-4 days from now when its core goes over the CAA.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just 2 of the last 20 melt seasons now produce 2012-beating minimum.
16/20 would put 2020 at 2nd lowest on record.

[oren]

Arctic sea ice area     3,880,926 km^2, if it matches 2019 area loses from today until mid September we would end up

 2,500,000-2,600,000 km^2

If it matches 2016 area loses

1.900,000 -2,000,000 km^2

If we matched 2012 area loses from today until mid September we would finish around

1,650,000-1,750,000 km^2!

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)

I am a bit confused because Gerontocrat writes on the data thread that NSIDC area (5-day trailing average) is 4106k. Where does 3881k come from?
In addition, he writes:
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 315 k less than 2019         
- 2020 Area is 237 k less than 2012         

If losses follow each year's trajectory to its respective minimum, one would naively assume that 2020 should finish ahead of that year by the amount written above. But your calculation shows ~500-550k less than 2016, 2012.

[gerontocrat]

Arctic sea ice area     3,880,926 km^2, if it matches 2019 area loses from today until mid September we would end up

 2,500,000-2,600,000 km^2

If it matches 2016 area loses

1.900,000 -2,000,000 km^2

If we matched 2012 area loses from today until mid September we would finish around

1,650,000-1,750,000 km^2!

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)

I am a bit confused because Gerontocrat writes on the data thread that NSIDC area (5-day trailing average) is 4106k. Where does 3881k come from?
In addition, he writes:
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 315 k less than 2019         
- 2020 Area is 237 k less than 2012         

If losses follow each year's trajectory to its respective minimum, one would naively assume that 2020 should finish ahead of that year by the amount written above. But your calculation shows ~500-550k less than 2016, 2012.

I got confused as well, so I updated my Area spreadsheet in my Jaxa analysis format. Results are on the Area & Extent data thread.

[glennbuck]

I am a bit confused because Gerontocrat writes on the data thread that NSIDC area (5-day trailing average) is 4106k. Where does 3881k come from?
In addition, he writes:
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 315 k less than 2019         
- 2020 Area is 237 k less than 2012         

If losses follow each year's trajectory to its respective minimum, one would naively assume that 2020 should finish ahead of that year by the amount written above. But your calculation shows ~500-550k less than 2016, 2012.

3,880,926 km^2 comes from Nico Sun, website https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

My figures for mid September are a ballpark figure comparing the area extent losses left from July 28th, 2012 and the remainder area left to melt for that year based off the figure above from Nico Sun chart, 2020-07-28. etc. If figures are out would be happy for someone with more data to work out the ending season area minimum possibilities.

[glennbuck]

I do think this year is certainly in the running to beat 2012, but I really don't foresee a BOE (as much as I would like to actually see that come to fruition).


Oh cool Pearscot, i would like to see a BOE also, but only if i was living on another planet as the outcome for Earth and Human Life as we know it might not be so good.

[Pagophilus]

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   

This from gerontocrat recently on the extent and area thread.
Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.
 

Is that an indication we could get a record low this year or a BOE!

I think very, very low possibility BOE, some possibilitiy of a record low, but more likely 2nd place, maybe even above.  2012 was a remarkable year, which could repeat, but when?
 
The history of this thread is littered with the shriveled carcasses of premature apocalyptic predictions. 

But what do I know?  My job is just rearranging the deckchairs...

[gerontocrat]

3,880,926 km^2 comes from Nico Sun, website https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Is Nico using one-day NSIDC area, not 5-day trailing average? If yes, that is scary as it shows nearly 300k of more area loss is already banked.

Or is Nico using data from the AMSR2 sensor which is always less than the NSIDC data? Still scary.

That is yet another reason I stick with JAXA for Extent & NSIDC 5 day trailing average for area.
Mixing data from two different data streams using different sensors is bound to cause confusion.

[Tor Bejnar]

Gerontocrat,
Are you suggesting the ice is going to sink?
Shivers! 

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

[Juan C. García]

3,880,926 km^2 comes from Nico Sun, website https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Is Nico using one-day NSIDC area, not 5-day trailing average? If yes, that is scary as it shows nearly 300k of more area loss is already banked.

NSIDC Daily Area from Wipneus page:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjJhYjU3ZGMzNjUxYjdhZTc

[ArcticMelt2]

The strongest surface melting was noted after 2011. Even without taking into account the record minimum extent and area. It's like in Greenland in 2012, when 97% of the glacier area was melting.

[be cause]

Hi Pearscot  , i use meteociel .. there are a number of forecast options .. gfs , ECMWF , GEM , navgem , JMA , UKMO and gefs ensemble .. enough for most folk .. b.c.

 

[gerontocrat]

Gerontocrat,
Are you suggesting the ice is going to sink?
Shivers! 

No,we are.

[glennbuck]

We are losing power spock

[blumenkraft]

This thread becomes completely unreadable since quoting is done incorrectly all over the place.

The things YOU say must be AFTER the closing quote tag (i.e. [ /quote ]).

For EVERY opening quote tag (i.e.[ quote ]) there must be a corresponding closing quote tag (i.e.[ /quote ]).

Everything you are not responding to should be deleted.


It's not too hard folks.

[jdallen]

My prediction of a remarkable slow down in ice extent reduction didn't seem very popular here.
<snip>

I suspect it was less that you said it would slow down, and perhaps more your implication (perhaps not clearly indicated) as to  *why* it was going to slow down.

The slow down we see currently is not the result of a "good thing";  that's obvious when you look at the area numbers and see continuing century-break losses.

The storm and dipole are blowing up the ice, scattering the Beaufort and shoving CAB ice back across the Laptev.  A less ideal direction for ice movement would be hard to find. 

When the dust settles there will be more pieces, and smaller, and a lot of them will likely disappear in a hurry.