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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4300 on: August 01, 2020, 12:37:51 PM »
Here's the final version of the comparison between the MODIS imagery and the concentration data. As usual, there's a higher-res version on the twitter page too: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1289510103733817344

I'll try put together a version, from a broader perspective, for the whole of July later on.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4301 on: August 01, 2020, 01:22:35 PM »
I would not go as far to say there is no chance of 2020 finishing above 2019 as nothing is impossible but the stats would suggest it's very unlikely. Also what tends to happen after a slow down is another period of average to above average losses as the ice that has spread out starts to melt away. Whether it will be to the levels of 2012 remains to be seen but I would say at this stage, probably not.

Of course just how much of that diffused ice will remain in the Beaufort sea remains to be seen. Still think like the last few years, we might get an arm of ice sticking near the CAA coastline but the diffused ice on the Beaufort/Chukchi border is unlikely to survive until September. Coupled with the Atlantic retreat and lack of ice in the ESS and Laptev then I'll stick with the prediction of a JAXA total of around 3.7 million.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4302 on: August 01, 2020, 01:33:30 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!
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JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4303 on: August 01, 2020, 01:49:54 PM »
There's been persistent downsloping winds north of Greenland.  Looks to me like a fair amount of rifting going on here, in addition to the warm breeze flowing northward.
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4304 on: August 01, 2020, 01:58:59 PM »
CAA is melting out completely where I would not expect in July and just looks terrible.  Seems like the NW passage might be open for traffic in a week or so?

This is the problem with 'expectation'...based on historical data; the same problem with the science, only this is referred to as 'modelling'.
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4305 on: August 01, 2020, 02:21:41 PM »

I was just thinking, "there are still 6 or 7 weeks left of melting, wonder how excited people can get based on one week of anticyclonic dispersion". Then I read the beginning of your comment, and thought, "here we go!" - but then I read the rest and was majorally mollified.

I always enjoy the 'style' of your postings and 'turn of phrase'; for example, "majorally mollified" (priceless). +1 for this expression alone.

One week ago I escaped from a three-week Internet blackout Well, you did decide to live in Italy :)only to see that I'd completely missed out on the July hammering. A new minimin seemed to be the generally accepted version of the future, anybody predicting anything else was quickly hammered down. Then a few days of blow from a short-lived cyclone and the previously repressed prognasticators rise to the surface, while even Friv seems to have lost steam.



I guess it is all part of the rich tapestry that is life. My two cents worth is that we will land in the middle of the fourth million, I do not agree with you on this one, I think that just one decent storm in August and we go under 4M and possibly challenge the 2012 recordwith a slim but real change of a new minimin. But what do I know? Indeed, what do any of us know :o

My comments in Italics.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 02:55:27 PM by D-Penguin »
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4306 on: August 01, 2020, 02:27:20 PM »
I AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT this summer we are going to see unprecedented open water in the CAB.

Friv - You seem to have lost some confidence in your earlier conviction...any specific reason?
Just watch the area numbers.

They haven't slowed yet.

Mark me.

Until/unless they do, sharply, Friv's scenario is still in play.

You have incorrectly edited my posting and thereby missed the point in your response.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 02:54:46 PM by D-Penguin »
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4307 on: August 01, 2020, 02:44:06 PM »
In physical reality, what matters most is thickness distribution (and volume), then area, then extent. If the ice is driven in a compacting transport, extent will plummet with not much physical impact, while the reverse is also true under a divergence regime. What we can see unfortunately with the satellites and models is the opposite, extent in high accuracy, area in medium accuracy, thickness distribution and volume with low accuracy and delays.
This allows both parties to have numbers and data on their side, which is fine, just has to be interpreted according to physics and not just visible numbers on a chart.
The sunny July did huge damage to the CAB in terms of volume, and the open Siberian seas are a disaster waiting for imports, while the Atlantic front has huge amounts of open water as in 2012 and 2016, very unlike 2019. OTOH the Beaufort is full of ice and the CAA and Greenland Sea are still holding up. The question we do not know is how much of the remaining ice is in marginal conditions - still whole for now but will melt out by mid-Sept. This is what will dictate the area numbers, and partially the volume numbers as well, as volume calculation is tied to measured area changes. The extent numbers will be dictated by area numbers, but very highly affected by compaction or divergence - very visible, much less important IMHO. 2016 was almost as low as 2012 in terms of area, but very high up in terms of extent.
My take on things is that the ice is thinner than appears, due to the impact of July insolation and due to very high movements in the last few weeks, which induced faster bottom melt. I have never seen so many days where the CAB was entirely visible, and this while the ice was doing a crazy dance around the basin. Then came the cyclone with movements induced in the other direction. The CAA has been sweltering in heat and the ice is all broken up. So I expect a some point a lot of the ice which originated with a standard FYI thickness will melt out, and so will some of the thinner MYI. This will probably leave us with a total area record or near-record, even though the Beaufort may not be in record territory at all. Oh yeah, I also expect a volume record. I can't say the same for extent, which might be far away from 2012's record, though surely below 2019. This depends on random September factors so can beat the seasoned forecasters easily.
August is upon us, the answers will be clear in a few weeks time, not much longer to wait.

An excellent summary of the issues that 'matter' and guide to all those who post, particularly to those taking 'a position' based on the many excellent postings of 'daily data'.

I also agree totally with the assessment as to how the remaining melt could progress towards the minimum.

A really well balanced qualitative assessment 'based on extensive knowledge of the data and the science'.

+1 - More if it were possible :)
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 02:52:08 PM by D-Penguin »
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dnem

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4308 on: August 01, 2020, 02:46:07 PM »
enthusiastic +1

Was just going to post the same thing!

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4309 on: August 01, 2020, 02:49:27 PM »
Here's the final version of the comparison between the MODIS imagery and the concentration data. As usual, there's a higher-res version on the twitter page too: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1289510103733817344

I'll try put together a version, from a broader perspective, for the whole of July later on.

That extensive area of lower compaction is showing itself again, wider and extending over the Pole.

I look forward to seeing the new version of the grahics for the whole of July.
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4310 on: August 01, 2020, 03:15:25 PM »
Overview of buoy drift in the Beaufort/Chukchi, then zooming in on that cluster of JAMSTEC/ICEX buoys currently in the Chukchi
Quote
About Warm Buoy & SideKick

JAMSTEC WARM (Warming and Irradiance Measurements) Buoy project has started to comprehend temporal changings of oceanic enviornment from ice-covered season toward open-water season. Thr WARM Buoy and Side Kick system (see below) was deployed at ICEX 2020 camp station in Beaufort Sea. These systems measure vertical structure of water mass (temperature and salinity) and chlorophyll-a fluorensence from surface to 60-m depth for every 1-hour and send via iridium satellite communication system (see real-time data page). SideKick monitors daily time series of upper-ice views (see gallery pages).
We kindly acknowledge US Navy Arctic Submarine Laboratory and Pacific Gyre Inc. for their kind support for this project. For your information, please also see UpTemp0 web site by University of Washington and WARM Buoy project of Old Dominion University.

Sidekick takes pictures :)

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4311 on: August 01, 2020, 05:29:15 PM »
Overview of buoy drift in the Beaufort/Chukchi, then zooming in on that cluster of JAMSTEC/ICEX buoys currently in the Chukchi
Quote
About Warm Buoy & SideKick

JAMSTEC WARM (Warming and Irradiance Measurements) Buoy project has started to comprehend temporal changings of oceanic enviornment from ice-covered season toward open-water season. Thr WARM Buoy and Side Kick system (see below) was deployed at ICEX 2020 camp station in Beaufort Sea. These systems measure vertical structure of water mass (temperature and salinity) and chlorophyll-a fluorensence from surface to 60-m depth for every 1-hour and send via iridium satellite communication system (see real-time data page). SideKick monitors daily time series of upper-ice views (see gallery pages).
We kindly acknowledge US Navy Arctic Submarine Laboratory and Pacific Gyre Inc. for their kind support for this project. For your information, please also see UpTemp0 web site by University of Washington and WARM Buoy project of Old Dominion University.

Sidekick takes pictures :)

Interesting, fascinating, informative...and I apologize in advance for my response to your posting but looking at the 'picture' brings me to think of what it must have been like to watch Nero fiddling while Rome burns.

...Reaction triggered by the cross-reference posting below:-

Re: What's new in Greenland?
« Reply #516 on: Today at 04:52:48 PM »

Quote from: Reginald on Today at 03:37:25 AM
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4312 on: August 01, 2020, 05:40:36 PM »
Well, you did decide to live in Italy :)

Ethiopia actually, at the very sources of the Blue Nile - Italy was just a phase, now I've finally reached my final destination!

Just for clarification - the middle of the fourth million comes in at c.a. 3.5. So I'm expecting second place.
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4313 on: August 01, 2020, 06:08:16 PM »
Well, you did decide to live in Italy :)

Ethiopia actually, at the very sources of the Blue Nile - Italy was just a phase, now I've finally reached my final destination!

Just for clarification - the middle of the fourth million comes in at c.a. 3.5. So I'm expecting second place.

 :)...Perhaps then I should be even less surprised about the loss of connection.

I have always been fascinated by Ethiopia but decided to park my boat in Spain, currently 'warmish' at 42 deg C in the shade.

Point taken on your correction defining 'the middle of the fourth million'; so, I was in the 'bin' (no abbreviated pun intended) 2.75-3.5 (if I remember correctly). My memory dims at 75 years of age or should I say, in my 76 th year? :-\
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4314 on: August 01, 2020, 07:11:26 PM »
GFS has a dipole set up after D9. Very far out but might be a serious concern if later runs agrees.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4315 on: August 01, 2020, 07:32:46 PM »
I attach concentration graphs from NSIDC 5 day trailing average data for the Arctic & the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea .

I also attach the Central Arctic Sea area & extent graphs, also NSIDC 5-day data.

So what happens next?
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 07:38:56 PM by gerontocrat »
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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4316 on: August 01, 2020, 07:40:13 PM »
Someone complains they are not actually attached?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4317 on: August 01, 2020, 07:47:19 PM »
So what happens next?
weatherdude will post something that proves this year is no big deal  ;)
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 08:05:47 PM by HapHazard »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4318 on: August 01, 2020, 07:51:13 PM »
There's been persistent downsloping winds north of Greenland.  Looks to me like a fair amount of rifting going on here, in addition to the warm breeze flowing northward.
Contrast boosted.  Click to run.

Well North of GIS there is clear pockets of open water which is simply UNPRECEDENTED. 

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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4319 on: August 01, 2020, 07:53:59 PM »

So what happens next?

The CAS sea ice concentration/area crashes look like something out of an Apocalypse movie! What happens next is me running around the room screaming. Only 2012 and 2016 drops compare but  2020 day-to-day seem higher than those.

It is all coming down to what happens in the Beaufort Sea and the Central Arctic Sea for a new record 1st or 2nd place area/extent/volume now. Central Arctic Sea looks like it will be a record low.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 04:06:25 AM by glennbuck »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4320 on: August 01, 2020, 08:04:20 PM »
So what happens next?
weatherdude will post something that proves this year is no big deal

Without a traditional dipole we have seen the ice get crushed. 

Also I can only imagine the methane clathrate stability in the Laptev and Kara is in serious question at this point. 

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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4321 on: August 01, 2020, 08:14:52 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4322 on: August 01, 2020, 08:20:32 PM »
polarview S1 of the after effects of the brief low in the chukchi/beaufort, jul31

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4323 on: August 01, 2020, 08:27:07 PM »
... methane clathrate stability in the Laptev and Kara ...

Methane, surface level. Last 6 days.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 08:34:54 PM by blumenkraft »

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4324 on: August 01, 2020, 08:27:15 PM »
A lot changes in a week. A week ago a record year looked very possible but now the slowdown and dispersion have made a top 3 place seem likely. Even the thin ice takes a while to melt and as nights get darker peak melting has passed now.

Still a lot of things happened in the Arctic in 2020 that never happened before so 2030 free of sea ice in Summer is very possible.

Every year the Arctic makes us think it is all going to melt out only to surprise us in another way. Slowdown is well under way now but there will be further big drops bringing final Jaxa extent to just under 4m like 2019 but let's wait and see.


Let me tell you, the spring is loading and soon you'll see around century drops again. Don't jump on every cliff or slow down but try to keep the bigger picture in view.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4325 on: August 01, 2020, 08:30:32 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3hVyJLw  Slight contrast adjustment to help 'see through' the clouds

miki

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4326 on: August 01, 2020, 08:55:08 PM »
I don't know, but I cannot see a single region of the Arctic that isn't screaming at this point.

If we were at the end, or even half of August, I would relax and hope for an early refreeze.
Instead it's August 1st and I can't help but worrying.
The "spread" caused by the recent storm and the relative quiet it brought feel ominous. IMHO.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4327 on: August 01, 2020, 09:02:29 PM »
EC also has a dipole, a weak one though. Of ligger concern is a high pressure that is foreseen to set up over the Beaufort Sea. If that forecast holds we might see really big extent losses after 8/10.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4328 on: August 01, 2020, 09:51:08 PM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.

(Edit: Removed the video - didn't realise it was autoplaying. Here's a link instead:https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1289672698361257984)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 10:22:42 AM by BornFromTheVoid »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4329 on: August 01, 2020, 10:03:57 PM »
EC also has a dipole, a weak one though. Of ligger concern is a high pressure that is foreseen to set up over the Beaufort Sea. If that forecast holds we might see really big extent losses after 8/10.

It's not that weak for it revving up at the end of the first week of August.

CLICK TO ANIMATE...

Now the gfs and euro are in agreement on the large scale pattern  change.

Direct solar isolation  melt we have observed:

75-80N: as late as August  20th.

70-75N: end of August.

Even one week of what the gfs and euro show and 2019 will be smoked.

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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4330 on: August 01, 2020, 10:08:05 PM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Wandel Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Wandel Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 11:28:09 AM by glennbuck »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4331 on: August 01, 2020, 10:11:20 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3hVyJLw  Slight contrast adjustment to help 'see through' the clouds

That's UNPRECEDENTED...

It's truly amazing.  That ice was close to 3M.  Maybe over 3M thick.  And it's gone.  Melting out insitu.  Which is amazing. 

If anyone has ever seen this just North of Greenland  please post it.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4332 on: August 01, 2020, 10:52:01 PM »
PGAS has fractured and is on the move.
Lots of contrast.  Click to run
 
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4333 on: August 01, 2020, 10:53:12 PM »
Direct solar isolation  melt we have observed:
75-80N: as late as August  20th.
70-75N: end of August.
Solar daily radiation per week still around 75% 65% of peak at 80N

more cyclone damage in the beaufort. S1 yesterday.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 12:54:16 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4334 on: August 01, 2020, 10:58:18 PM »
Below, is a visible satellite image from today for Northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean.

The source of the image is the Meteorological Service of Canada:

  https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html#hrpt

It provides a nice clear view of some of the rotten ice in the arctic, including the area north of Greenland discussed by uniquorn and friv, above. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4335 on: August 02, 2020, 12:23:33 AM »
Interesting forecast at 7-10 days, and with some level of agreement between GFS/EC and some consistency I think the broad pattern change will be similar, with smaller details mostly up in the air.

There looks to be a ridge/high building and pushing into the Arctic from the American side, with likely strong winds on the western flank resulting in a significant retreat of the ice in the Beaufort or maybe Chukchi.  There is also increased potential for low pressure somewhere on the Russian side which is likely to push ice out into the Atlantic to melt.

A mitigating factor is that the upper level polar vortex seems to be building and this high is not able to disrupt this vortex to the same extent as during July.  A much colder upper level will result in more clouds.  And cooler conditions on the surface as cooler air descends with the high.  Attached is 144 hour EC where the upper level cold air is weakened and distorted, but not totally disrupted and dispersed.  Deeper into the forecast by about day 10 the high pressure system centralises with a ring of colder upper air around it.
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4336 on: August 02, 2020, 02:05:35 AM »
Direct solar isolation  melt we have observed:
75-80N: as late as August  20th.
70-75N: end of August.
   Here is another version showing where we are at relative to insolation.  This one based on the Surface insolation graph posted by Tealight.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 02:52:48 AM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4337 on: August 02, 2020, 02:22:36 AM »
Interesting chart for the season, will of contributed to the central arctic sea concentration/area drop.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 03:34:18 AM by glennbuck »

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4338 on: August 02, 2020, 02:22:58 AM »
Direct solar isolation  melt we have observed:
75-80N: as late as August  20th.
70-75N: end of August.
   Here is another version showing where we are at relative to insolation.  This one based on the Surface insolation graph posted by Tealight.
Right. From next week on, open skies mean surface is cooling down, give or take one week.

However, the forecast does seem cloudier to me, including direct warmth from NA, and a low that gets skewed toward the Siberian side. Interesting, as Michael says.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4339 on: August 02, 2020, 02:37:41 AM »
Interesting forecast at 7-10 days, and with some level of agreement between GFS/EC and some consistency I think the broad pattern change will be similar, with smaller details mostly up in the air.

There looks to be a ridge/high building and pushing into the Arctic from the American side, with likely strong winds on the western flank resulting in a significant retreat of the ice in the Beaufort or maybe Chukchi.  There is also increased potential for low pressure somewhere on the Russian side which is likely to push ice out into the Atlantic to melt.

A mitigating factor is that the upper level polar vortex seems to be building and this high is not able to disrupt this vortex to the same extent as during July.  A much colder upper level will result in more clouds.  And cooler conditions on the surface as cooler air descends with the high.  Attached is 144 hour EC where the upper level cold air is weakened and distorted, but not totally disrupted and dispersed.  Deeper into the forecast by about day 10 the high pressure system centralises with a ring of colder upper air around it.

It's not often I would praise the GFS but if the Beaufort high does develop then its the first model to pick up on it whilst the ECM was showing a large low over the CAB.

What affects it will have will be interesting, if its persistent then it could be bad for the ice as it would tend to mean a dipole and as you say, pushes ice towards the Atlantic and likely to melt it given the high SSTS. If its a 1 or 2 day brief ridge, the affects would probably be quite small and we may see some compaction also.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4340 on: August 02, 2020, 02:45:49 AM »
Not surprisingly, Zack reported a record low extent for July.

I found the response to his tweet even more interesting.  I usually do not pay much attention to the grounded ice on the islands. Looks like July was a record melt month for most of that ice as well. 

The only places that were “ok” were Greenland and Iceland. Every place else showed either record, or above normal melting. That further demonstrates the remarkable amount of heat in the arctic last month.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 05:22:24 AM by Rod »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4341 on: August 02, 2020, 04:09:17 AM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Weddell Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Weddell Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
I thought the Weddell Sea to be in Antarctica. Is there one in the Arctic also?
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4342 on: August 02, 2020, 04:19:01 AM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Weddell Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Weddell Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
I thought the Weddell Sea to be in Antarctica. Is there one in the Arctic also?

Just let it go man, he is on a roll 🤫
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 05:37:26 AM by oren »

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4343 on: August 02, 2020, 05:29:16 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.





I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4344 on: August 02, 2020, 05:35:35 AM »
The 12Z euro is straight awful for the ice on the Pacific side starting between hour 108-120.  Thats when a STRAIGHT LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW develops over NWNA and brings major compaction directly to the WRECKED ICE South of 80N.

This pattern establishing itself is the difference between 2020 finishing between 2019 and 2012 or setting a new record low.

Instead of a slow decline through AUGUST.  Any form of a dipole that brings the Southerly hammer into the Pacific side ACCELERATES that by melting the ice faster, bringing more heat deeper into the CAB and compacting the ice towards the Atlantic side where the ice edge isn't moving much.

If anyone wants to go back and Iook at the last 20 years of August weather.

The euro depiction from hour 120-240 is the second worst weekly pattern for the ice behind 2007.  Not counting 2012.

This pattern doesn't have to do anything but push the boulder over the cliff.

Whatever the hell cold upper level rings of air is supposed to mean or do it isn't going to stop HAMMER TIME
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4345 on: August 02, 2020, 05:40:17 AM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Weddell Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Weddell Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
I thought the Weddell Sea to be in Antarctica. Is there one in the Arctic also?
I assume glennbuck meant the Wandel Sea.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wandel_Sea

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4346 on: August 02, 2020, 05:47:29 AM »
A lot changes in a week. A week ago a record year looked very possible but now the slowdown and dispersion have made a top 3 place seem likely. Even the thin ice takes a while to melt and as nights get darker peak melting has passed now.

Still a lot of things happened in the Arctic in 2020 that never happened before so 2030 free of sea ice in Summer is very possible.

Every year the Arctic makes us think it is all going to melt out only to surprise us in another way. Slowdown is well under way now but there will be further big drops bringing final Jaxa extent to just under 4m like 2019 but let's wait and see.


Let me tell you, the spring is loading and soon you'll see around century drops again. Don't jump on every cliff or slow down but try to keep the bigger picture in view.

Absolutely correct. Particularly your reference to the 'bigger picture'.

+1 Not just because I agree with your opinion but because it is so important to see the 'bigger picture'.

Personally I would like to see a better balance in the postings between 'data' and 'opinions' on 'how'  the evolving situations are creating the data. I feel that such an approach would lead to a better understanding of the 'bigger picture'. More debate and a tad less graphs and tables that could form the basis of the debate.

For example, 2020 is exceptional because of the very heightened heat balance in the arctic this year and what has been the primary mechanism for this extraordinary event?

'How' was the 'heat dome' over the Pole created and why did it prevail for such an extended period?

'How' was the latest destructive LP system over the Beaufort created?

Is it conceivable that the final 'melt down' leading to a BOE could be the CAB ice melting away from the inside to the outside rather than a gradually diminishing central ice core?

Until we start finding answers to such questions we will still be making comparisons with previous years' melting seasons after all the ice has gone.
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4347 on: August 02, 2020, 05:48:52 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.

We have huge holes of of open water opening up within the ice pack and you know Bremen is highly obscured by clouds.

So you are intentionally sabatoging the discussion.

Don't bother replying for me.  I'm putting you on ignore. 



For what it's worth.    I'm sure there is many posters who think I'm just being bias.  Believe me I am rooting for a record low because it's interesting and inevitable.

But also extent and area are currently dead last.

But I call it as it is and this forum has worked so hard to shed our bias towards the end of the ice cap.

And we have a great community who has worked hard to inform ourselves about things like Bremen being obscured by weather.

This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.


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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4348 on: August 02, 2020, 05:54:33 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

A lot of the ASI still qualifies as extent, but I wonder how much time can it be that way.
I am still waiting for large extent drops, even that they are not happening right now.
The melting season has not ended yet. Still around 45 days more.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2020:
     5,717,878 km2, a drop of -38,506 km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4349 on: August 02, 2020, 06:05:49 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

A lot of the ASI still qualifies as extent, but I wonder how much time can it be that way.
I am still waiting for large extent drops, even that they are not happening right now.
The melting season has not ended yet. Still around 45 days more.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2020:
     5,717,878 km2, a drop of -38,506 km2.

Bremen graphics cut off at 15% iirc. So all of the ice it shows is counted as extent.

Extent drops will probably pick back up to around 50-60K a day for the next 4 days. 

Then the dipole pattern establishes and the Pacific ice South of 80N will quickly vanish. Thats the best chance for some century drops

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow