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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4350 on: August 02, 2020, 06:12:12 AM »
July 28 - August 1.

2019.

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4351 on: August 02, 2020, 06:50:59 AM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.

YES. A whole month of weather and its effect on compaction; clear to see the actuality and compare.

Suggestion 1 (if I may be so bold)
- In the posting a side by side graphic would give an immediate visual that the posting is a 'comparative' video
- Would it be possible to just have a side-by-side static image for the posting with a click to open in a seperate window and then click to play? It might save some bandwith for the Forum (I think)
- Could a 'running date' be added to the video sequence?
- Perhaps a weekly posting and a final posting running a full months sequence?

Suggestion 2 (If you tell me to 'get on my bike'...no offence :) )
Could you do a second set of side-by-side comparative videos for the Jet Stream and the weather over the arctic? I just have a gut feeling that the correlation is very strong - then one has the full set of data. How the weather in the Arctic is being formed and how the weather is impacting on the ice. Why not go the full hog and add the ice compaction run for a full-house? It would be a fantastic predictive tool if there is a strong correlation

IF you think that this is a good suggestion please use the live Jet Stream feature at:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/02/0000Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,847
I think the video graphics are great on this website, it really gives a sense of what is happening. The key is side-by-side. 2020 would be a great year to record in this manner because of its unique features.

It's a BIG ask but I THINK it could very interesting, instructive and visually exciting to see it all together.

Again +1 for the latest original contribution (whether or not you tell me to 'get on my bike)
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4352 on: August 02, 2020, 07:21:12 AM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.

IF you think that this is a good suggestion please use the live Jet Stream feature at:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/02/0000Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,847

This is what the graphic of the Jet Stream looks like today on the above link:-

Crazy!
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

Cookymonster

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4353 on: August 02, 2020, 07:37:21 AM »
Wow thanks for the jetstream screenshot, its just dawned on me a large part of the jet stream is actually currently over the Arctic ocean - very close to the pole .... not only in one place but in two zones!!!

CM

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4354 on: August 02, 2020, 07:53:03 AM »
"That's one messed up jet stream. It's looks like the planet's atmosphere is going through some big changes. Summer's still here but the gases are throwing curve balls to the northern pole, can't see this sort of thing happening in Jupiter or Saturn, let alone Venus or even Mars. Of course the presence of water vapor makes for rather nice looking swirls, but the normal meteorological rules applied on watery planets have been, at least temporarily, thrown out of window. We should study this", Captain Picard on meeting a pre-warp civilization.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 08:00:37 AM by Pmt111500 »

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4355 on: August 02, 2020, 08:36:09 AM »
That's not a jet stream. Looks more like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti.

Again I'm reminded of a metaphor, regarding the effects of AGW on climate systems. It's like a spinning top, and as it slows down, it begins to wobble...

May we live in interesting times.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4356 on: August 02, 2020, 08:42:04 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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Killian

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4357 on: August 02, 2020, 09:09:52 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th, then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Rationale: The compacting of the ice makes it difficult for extent to change other than at or slower than averages, though area may fall significantly, particularly if extent increases. However, 2019's curve flattens over those time periods, also.

We knew the low extent numbers would allow weird things to happen. The ice-saving compaction is one of them: Put stuff in a gyre and it accumulates to the center, creating a negative feedback for melt rates.

Nothing you all don't know, just me playing with trends and patterns and putting myself on the line because, why not?

Anyone care to join in?

Holding up.

I saw the responses. Area is far more important than extent, of course, but extent has that easily understood visual element.

I think that *in general* conditions turning toward the more ice-preserving modes of the years since 2012 is very interesting. However, I've not had time for several days, so if there has been a shift back to high export and high insolation, ignore what I just said.

:-)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4358 on: August 02, 2020, 09:29:43 AM »
Seems like the NW passage might be open for traffic in a week or so?

There is still time to place your bets in the dedicated thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3208
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4359 on: August 02, 2020, 10:18:12 AM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.
Thanks for this great animation. The problem is that MP4 files are auto-loading so this cannot be posted regularly on the main thread, for fear of hurting users who are bandwidth-limited. One-time posts are ok, but recurring updates will be too much.
This can be fixed by uploading to YouTube and posting the link, or by a gif (which is often unwieldy) or by posting into a separate thread.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4360 on: August 02, 2020, 10:30:46 AM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4361 on: August 02, 2020, 11:44:57 AM »
Animation of the development of low concentration ice and open water north of Greenland. amsr2-uhh, jul27-aug1
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 11:58:55 AM by uniquorn »

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4362 on: August 02, 2020, 12:10:29 PM »
That's not a jet stream. Looks more like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti.

Again I'm reminded of a metaphor, regarding the effects of AGW on climate systems. It's like a spinning top, and as it slows down, it begins to wobble...

May we live in interesting times.

Sorry but I need to add balance to that and remind you the obvious that it's summer in the northern hemisphere so yes, you will have a slower and more wavey type of jet stream, that is NATURAL. Where climate change comes into it is the persistent and strength(in terms of temperature) of any high pressure cells, maybe the high pressure during July was a sign of that. Again, high pressure over the basin is not unusual but it's persistence and strength most certainly was.

Back to the here and now and yes, the models are forming up on a potential dipole occurring, I still think regardless of the weather, extent will fall below 4 million but it could help to push it in that direction if it does occur and end up being persistent.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4363 on: August 02, 2020, 12:21:24 PM »
Here's the difference between the concentration from the 31st of July and the 1st of August. Only the areas with change outside of -10% to +10% are coloured.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4364 on: August 02, 2020, 12:39:25 PM »
The classic August/September quadrangle is getting shape. What proportions and size will it exactly have? Nares and Atlantic will definitely retreat more than usual and even Beaufort could basically go poof. A complete detachment from northern Greenland is also in the cards ...
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 12:57:17 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4365 on: August 02, 2020, 12:44:05 PM »
The classic August/September rectangle is getting shape. What proportions and size will it exactly have? Nares and Atlantic will definitely retreat more than usual and even Beaufort could basically go poof. A complete detachment from northern Greenland is also in the cards ...
Pretty clear signs on worldview of rounded floes 100 km north of Greenland so some kayakeer might try to round the top part of Greenland now.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4366 on: August 02, 2020, 12:51:47 PM »
Yeah. When the Greenland sea lets you get in (with a kayak not a necessity), and once you get around the northern Cape Morris Jesup, you just have to wait that Nares takes you away and spits you out south.

A bit off topic but interesting short text and great illustrations about the currency changes in the Arctic Sea:
https://www.ecomagazine.com/news/science/arctic-ocean-changes-driven-by-sub-arctic-seas
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

interstitial

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4367 on: August 02, 2020, 12:53:09 PM »
Thawing Thunder I think your quadrilateral needs to be smaller on the Atlantic and Siberian side.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4368 on: August 02, 2020, 01:00:56 PM »
These thickness graphs, while useful, never have materialized in a complete meltout. There are so many other factors like insulation, ocean depth and currencies. I suppose I'm not too far off with my proposal. Though the Arctic is always good for a surprise ...
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4369 on: August 02, 2020, 01:12:04 PM »
Thawing Thunder I think your quadrilateral needs to be smaller on the Atlantic and Siberian side.

Just looking at that, the entire Eastern hemisphere could be ice free up to 80 degree Lat, well before the end of August

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4370 on: August 02, 2020, 01:38:27 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

Looking windy again...
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4371 on: August 02, 2020, 01:48:05 PM »
These thickness graphs, while useful, never have materialized in a complete meltout.
They might be more representative of the ice state than a one day difference image.

Here looking at the CAB 'decompacting' north of Laptev. Identifiable features drifting south while the ice edge stays relatively static.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4372 on: August 02, 2020, 02:02:03 PM »
At least out "great minds" didn't quite think alike on this occasion Gerontocrat Uniquorn!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2020/#Jul-02



N.B. More haste less speed!
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 02:41:11 PM by Jim Hunt »
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D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4373 on: August 02, 2020, 02:15:02 PM »
That's not a jet stream. Looks more like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti.

Again I'm reminded of a metaphor, regarding the effects of AGW on climate systems. It's like a spinning top, and as it slows down, it begins to wobble...

May we live in interesting times.

Sorry but I need to add balance to that and remind you the obvious that it's summer in the northern hemisphere so yes, you will have a slower and more wavey type of jet stream, that is NATURAL.

Paul, I would not describe the graphic of the Jet stream that I posted
« Reply #4353 on: Today at 07:21:12 AM »
...'more wavey'.

Haphard's description is more accurate
...'like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti'
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4374 on: August 02, 2020, 02:23:50 PM »
Forecasts are becoming colder, insolation is reducing. I guess, active melting season is near its end. Still, there is stored energy in the Arctic Ocean and possibility of powerful cyclones. Low compaction is not favorable for below average extent losses next month.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4375 on: August 02, 2020, 02:44:09 PM »
This is a GIF showing tides and wind dispersing the ice pack in the north of the New Siberian Islands. Click to play.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4376 on: August 02, 2020, 02:47:51 PM »
Some kayakeer might try to round the top part of Greenland now.

The plucky little yacht Northabout is currently en route to Disko Bay. Perhaps (s)he might be persuaded to give it a try a little later in the season?

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/could-northabout-circumnavigate-greenland-in-2018/
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4377 on: August 02, 2020, 03:26:46 PM »
Forecasts are becoming colder, insolation is reducing. I guess, active melting season is near its end. Still, there is stored energy in the Arctic Ocean and possibility of powerful cyclones. Low compaction is not favorable for below average extent losses next month.

I think what this does confirm is whilst the ice pack was compact during July, its also fairly thin. I think a large part of the lower compactness could be down to the diffused nature of the ice pack there.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4378 on: August 02, 2020, 03:34:39 PM »
Some kayakeer might try to round the top part of Greenland now.

The plucky little yacht Northabout is currently en route to Disko Bay. Perhaps (s)he might be persuaded to give it a try a little later in the season?

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/could-northabout-circumnavigate-greenland-in-2018/

If it tries it I hope it has at least a three men crew. Constant watch is pretty much obligatory in ice, what I know about sailing on winter Baltic, which isn't much else.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4379 on: August 02, 2020, 04:17:38 PM »
If it tries it I hope it has at least a three men crew.

It certainly isn't part of current Unu Mondo mission plan!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/northabout-heads-north-again/

However the total crew count is indeed > 3
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Yuha

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4380 on: August 02, 2020, 04:29:49 PM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4381 on: August 02, 2020, 04:31:34 PM »
I guess, active melting season is near its end.
I wonder what an inactive melting season looks like? Does it involve Pina Colada?
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Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4382 on: August 02, 2020, 04:47:05 PM »
It's just crazy what is going on North of Greenland (and the whole CAA really).  It's hard to imagine what the end of the season will look like.  The late melting always seems to be mostly from the Siberian and Pacific side while north of Greenland and the CAA are where the oldest and thickest ice sit.  Those areas are melting out like I've never seen before.

I wonder if the ice will push back up against the land there or there will simply be some refreeze (how long will the melt continue there?).  It's another whole front for ice area/extent loss.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4383 on: August 02, 2020, 05:19:29 PM »
If it tries it I hope it has at least a three men crew.

It certainly isn't part of current Unu Mondo mission plan!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/northabout-heads-north-again/

However the total crew count is indeed > 3

Ok, then mooring to a floe for a night and someone into night watch to monitor the lead or something like that? Guessing they've got experience only very few evem in Finland have. Guessing there are some 50-100 people in Finland who have sailed a small vessel in such conditions. Excellent experience to get a job on an ice breaker, i guess.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4384 on: August 02, 2020, 05:46:19 PM »
Who knows, Extent region with red and yellow is more or less than the 2012 minimum?

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4385 on: August 02, 2020, 05:54:35 PM »
Model Slater's is optimistic about the future of the ice.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4386 on: August 02, 2020, 06:15:49 PM »
Model Slater's is optimistic about the future of the ice.

Interesting.  Does it give you a way to measure the area at a certain probability?  Would be interested to see what the 50% area comes out too.  Or is 4.2M some kind of weighted sum, maybe?  Could you share a link here?  Thanks.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4387 on: August 02, 2020, 06:22:31 PM »
Model Slater's is optimistic about the future of the ice.

Interesting.  Does it give you a way to measure the area at a certain probability?  Would be interested to see what the 50% area comes out too.  Or is 4.2M some kind of weighted sum, maybe?  Could you share a link here?  Thanks.


http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

I think the model is calculating the ice extent in the blue area.

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4388 on: August 02, 2020, 06:29:18 PM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.
This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.


He must be a polititian, telling mostly true things taken out of context with a false implication achieved through semantic tricks in addition to leaving things out.

Probably on a mission with bad motives.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4389 on: August 02, 2020, 06:36:54 PM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.

I suspect bottom melt and the Atlantic being in attack mode do zero favors to the ice. Nonetheless, this is just wild to see! I think August will still have some surprises left in store. And I should note, I think the models have been fairly accurate depicting the recent dispersion in the Beaufort
pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4390 on: August 02, 2020, 06:41:25 PM »

Interesting.  Does it give you a way to measure the area at a certain probability?  Would be interested to see what the 50% area comes out too.  Or is 4.2M some kind of weighted sum, maybe?  Could you share a link here?  Thanks.


http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

I think the model is calculating the ice extent in the blue area.

Thanks!  From the poster linked at that site, I found this:  "Integrating the probabilities gives an Arctic wide extent value."

So I think that 4.2M number is indeed a sum of areas weighted by the probabilities assigned by the model, which makes sense.   The blue (high probability, say >= 0.7) regions are quite a bit less than 4M by my eye.

"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4391 on: August 02, 2020, 06:58:40 PM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.

I suspect bottom melt and the Atlantic being in attack mode do zero favors to the ice. Nonetheless, this is just wild to see! I think August will still have some surprises left in store. And I should note, I think the models have been fairly accurate depicting the recent dispersion in the Beaufort
There was a huge amount of ice exported out of the fram pre-season, and during the GAAC the ice moved westwards while getting fried by the sun.

And for the last week or so it was being blowtorched with strong warm southerly winds, so I predicted this would happen last week, as the ice there was already very weak.

And it's not over yet if the forecast holds! So expect a lot of open water there by the end of the season. Unless of course it gets filled up again with strong easterlies...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4392 on: August 02, 2020, 07:02:16 PM »
Last week in data!

First GIF: 7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies
Second GIF: ice drift map
Third GIF: Fram export via SAR (we had wonderful flight paths this week, making a great video of the ice edge!)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4393 on: August 02, 2020, 07:09:19 PM »
The blue (high probability, say >= 0.7) regions are quite a bit less than 4M by my eye.

Maybe.

Another handy number for eyeballing area in the Arctic is that the entire area N. of 80 is just under 4x10^6 km^2.


just under 4x10^6 km^2] = 3.875 million km2.

But for the sea area North of 80 you have to exclude the largish lump of land which is the North of Greenland & about half of Ellesmere Island.
The area of the Central Arctic Sea as defined by NSIDC is 3.224 million km2, which follows closely but not exactly 80 North.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4394 on: August 02, 2020, 07:13:12 PM »
So I think that 4.2M number is indeed a sum of areas weighted by the probabilities assigned by the model, which makes sense.   The blue (high probability, say >= 0.7) regions are quite a bit less than 4M by my eye.

BTW, 50 days out, we are already in the freezing season.

The colors indicate the calculated probability of ice being there.

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4395 on: August 02, 2020, 07:38:35 PM »
 Réponse #4384 le: Aujourd'hui à 05:46:19 pm »
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Who knows, Extent region with red and yellow is more or less than the 2012 minimum?

Hello ArcticMelt2,
If you go to Nico's website, you click first on "Analysis" and then on "Past Ice Maps", and there you choose the year and month you want. You can then compare the years on the same date.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 09:07:17 PM by Général de GuerreLasse »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4396 on: August 02, 2020, 08:19:22 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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KenB

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4397 on: August 02, 2020, 08:23:04 PM »
The blue (high probability, say >= 0.7) regions are quite a bit less than 4M by my eye.

Maybe.

Another handy number for eyeballing area in the Arctic is that the entire area N. of 80 is just under 4x10^6 km^2.


just under 4x10^6 km^2] = 3.875 million km2.

But for the sea area North of 80 you have to exclude the largish lump of land which is the North of Greenland & about half of Ellesmere Island.
The area of the Central Arctic Sea as defined by NSIDC is 3.224 million km2, which follows closely but not exactly 80 North.

Here's a quick and dirty version of that image with all the pixels below the 70% range turned to white.  The chunk of outside 80N near Alaska and few other stray pixels will easily fit in the unoccupied space N. of Svalbard.  So given what Gerontocrat says above, the area of 70+ probability is under 3.224M, possibly less than 3M. 

Regarding Blumenkraft's reply about 50 days being into the freezing season, I see that Slater's model agrees.  We'll see, I guess, but there's another thread about that here.
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JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4398 on: August 02, 2020, 09:11:01 PM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.
This is today.  There is a lot going on.  Interesting swirls in the open areas extending north from Greenland.  Then there's the interesting feature in the lower right, and the subsequent waves propagating northward.  After seeing this gif from blumenkraft.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg277039.html#msg277039
I get the feeling the "plunger" action of the tide moving north through the Nares sends a wave that gets trapped along the coast due to coriolis. It's then forced upwards due to bathymetry, creating the swirl, with some of the wave reflect back, but much of it continuing poleward.
There is a lot of "sloshing" in the Lincoln Sea area.
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« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 09:17:24 PM by JayW »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4399 on: August 02, 2020, 09:59:05 PM »
Still 2 days ahead of 2012.  (Petit Climate Graphs)  Go to link for quality image. (scroll down to Extent section)

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.