Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 571696 times)

ajouis

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 163
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4450 on: August 03, 2020, 04:08:54 PM »
it seems that I was wrong about continued cab loss, we have had a continuous slow down instead, this must be because of thicker ice because top melt is continuing apace with an unusual continual pulse of warmth along the greenland to laptev cab, already present several days ago, with melt not stopping even at the north pole within 10 days apart from an ess island as well as the laptev edge, although the latter only in the unreliable part of the forecast. Furthermore the euro model seems to start to indicate a high pressure in the beaufort, where insolation is higher due to its lower latitude, this combined with the surface temperature forecast showing some waa towards the thicker parts of the beaufort, means that along with bottom melt, which will be increased after more insolation given the latitude, the ice will keep being attacked from the top. Given the known melt ratios of the beaufort, it is probable most of it will melt out before refreeze, although it might take some time (highest bottom melt in the end of August)(https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL034007). This is even more apparent given the destruction made by the cyclone, as can be seen in the subsequent bremen maps, and should be fully revealed within a week as high pressure takes hold in that region.
The previously mentioned cooling, appearing in the front that was most active (ess, laptev) seems shallow, limited to the ice margins, which means that any plateau or continuous slow down in area or extent  would only mask the thickness loss, which should already become clear with the piomas update due very soon. This masking effect should also stop soon in the caa, where thickness, according to hycom, is deadly low.
Winter is coming, but not before Rome burns.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts?overridemobile=true
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4451 on: August 03, 2020, 04:27:05 PM »
The Danes predict that by August 8, warm water will reach the North Pole.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4452 on: August 03, 2020, 04:41:11 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
The Great Rip-Off of 2020. Intersting to see if Arctic has any solid large ice surface after this. Probably going back into hiberna... Sorry, ....aestivation again, keeping an eye on this though.
What this melting season will prove or disprove IMHO is if a compact ice pack is more prone to melt than a dispersed pack.

Because the pack was so small and compacted, most of the energy went into the surrounding seas that had no ice left to melt, and not in pockets of water in between floes - as would happen with a more dispersed pack.

So did a more compact ice pack reflect more of the sun's energy? And is all we have left now for the remainder of the season the energy in open water that will get cooled rapidly as insolation ends and the ice edge melts?

We'll know in a few weeks I guess...

I’m not entirely sure Freegrass, the melt ponding and preconditioning of the ice all the way across the CAB, so the reduced albedo of the entire ice pack, along with the remarkably consistent clear skies under the high pressure system of July, means that a lot of solar energy went into the central pack, not just the peripheral areas.

Which means there was not only a Lot of extra top melt, but a lot of energy went into the ice, and a lot of energy went into the water under the ice. When the ice is wet or clear of snow or covered in melt ponds, apparently a lot of energy gets through into the water underneath. I would guess that open leads absorb this better, but 2020 looks like it’s been unusually conducive to absorbing solar energy. (My memory might be off, but Someone posted A few years ago about how some wavelengths go through the ice, and primarily heat the water about 5m down)

Since we don’t really know how much bottom melt is going on, and how separated the water layers stay just under the ice, we will also find out how much preconditioning and stored solar energy leads to bottom melt north of 80N as insolation disappears. And that question and your question about compactness might be hard to disentangle. If it gets windy and the ice gets moving though, I’m guessing bottom melt will dominate even in the central pack, and a lot of ice will go poof.
I understand what you're saying, and I completely agree with you. BUT! A lot of energy also went into open ocean that isn't melting any ice. Those oceans will just cool down again in winter and freeze over without melting any ice (this year).

So what I'm saying is that if we end up in third place behind 2012 and 2019 that I think that this could be a possible explanation for it. Meltponding always happens, so that doesn't change. The big difference that I can see between 2019 and 2020 is that in 2019 the ice was much more dispersed, while in 2020 we had a lot more insolation on a compact ice pack. A lot of ice still remained in the ESS in 2019 where this year there is nothing left to melt in the periphery of a record breaking small ice pack.

I'm not making any claims. I'm just wondering if there could be any truth to this. It seems logical to me. Although like I said, I do believe you are right, and we'll probably break the record with this year's record breaking insolation. Time will tell if my brainfart has any merit...   

I actually hope it doesn't, because that would mean my prediction below 3M km2 was wrong...  :-\
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

marcel_g

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 362
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4453 on: August 03, 2020, 06:02:51 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
So what I'm saying is that if we end up in third place behind 2012 and 2019 that I think that this could be a possible explanation for it. Meltponding always happens, so that doesn't change. The big difference that I can see between 2019 and 2020 is that in 2019 the ice was much more dispersed, while in 2020 we had a lot more insolation on a compact ice pack. A lot of ice still remained in the ESS in 2019 where this year there is nothing left to melt in the periphery of a record breaking small ice pack.

I'm not making any claims. I'm just wondering if there could be any truth to this. It seems logical to me. Although like I said, I do believe you are right, and we'll probably break the record with this year's record breaking insolation. Time will tell if my brainfart has any merit...   

I actually hope it doesn't, because that would mean my prediction below 3M km2 was wrong...  :-\

I don't think melt ponding always happens the same way it has for 2020. I believe widespread melt ponding was early and wide spread, and happened before the high pressure set up, so it was basically an ideal set up for absorbing solar energy.

And we'll see how the bottom melt works out, your wind animations make it look like the Atlantic, Laptev, and Beaufort areas are going to get a washing machine wind set up, first going one way, and then going the other. I'm guessing a lot of ice goes poof in those areas within the next week regardless of temperatures or cloudiness. However, the central pack looks to be spared from much wind for the next few days at least, so bottom melting might be slowed down there, at least temporarily.

If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4454 on: August 03, 2020, 06:59:16 PM »
If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?
Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...

It's been a crazy year so far - as I predicted. And this is only the second melting season I'm following closely...  :-\ Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?  :-\
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4455 on: August 03, 2020, 07:16:10 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Don't forget to click the like button from time to time if you like these forecasts!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Iain

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 162
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4456 on: August 03, 2020, 08:05:02 PM »
I think the CAA will be worth watching over the next few days.

Can’t be 100% sure due to some thin cloud cover, but it looks like the ice is fragmented and mobile to the East and West of Ellef Ringnes island.

Windy.com predicts wind from the North from Tuesday evening for several days, let’s see how much of the 2m thick ice from the CAB slips through.

The straight between Axel Heiburg I. and Ellesmere is also open, another exit route from the CAB, with a following wind.
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4457 on: August 03, 2020, 08:14:14 PM »
It seems that the ice in the Arctic is in the worst condition. The scale of the melting is unique compared to past years. And soon a new stage of a sharp drop in the Extent will begin. NSDIC again registered a 100k+ loss today.

The chances that the extent will fall below 3 million km2 are increasing.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 08:36:20 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4458 on: August 03, 2020, 08:40:06 PM »
Is that open water I see through the clouds? Did the whole thing fall apart?

GIF of fast ice on the east coast of Greenland.
It's definitely open water right now.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3538
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 601
  • Likes Given: 370
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4459 on: August 03, 2020, 11:46:52 PM »
It seems that the ice in the Arctic is in the worst condition. The scale of the melting is unique compared to past years. And soon a new stage of a sharp drop in the Extent will begin. NSDIC again registered a 100k+ loss today.
...
I find it curious that July 2020 started 'about' in "1st" place (2012 data didn't start until early July 2012) and ended in "1st" place, with a side trip to "last" place in between.  ("1st" is in quotes as it is merely the highest on the graph; 1st is horribleness, I guess.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

VeliAlbertKallio

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 201
  • Eheu fugaces labuntur anni
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 80
  • Likes Given: 110
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4460 on: August 04, 2020, 01:46:34 AM »
The nuclear submariners have continued to search for strong ice to seek hides underneath sea ice. This task is becoming increasingly difficult if not impossible as the sea ice area has dangerously thinned. The wake of forward propulsion of large nuclear submarines can be detected even in thin and broken sea ice. The hide and seek game is ending, if it did not do so already. The small residual ice cap is also posing unacceptable dangers and both Russian and US submariners are forced to remain and move within same constricted area increasing the risk of collisions, especially detection as nuclear submarines communicate their position fairly accurately to another submarines due to noise their engines are making, while the signs of wake (also the rearrangement of ice floes in the wake) now reveals the generals' toys locations from above. (sarcastic about that  :D :D :D)

We might already this year have a foretaste of what post-sea ice weather brings: outwards thrown jet-stream boundary with mean value near the Strait of Gibraltar (shifting from nr. Norway north of UK initially predicted December 2021 after repeat serious melt, but now forwarded). For the UK and Central Europe this means increased risk of so-called "Beast-of-the-East": severe cold easterlies pulling freezing air across continent from Russia while the Arctic Ocean is cooling, while Portugal, Spain, Morocco, and Algeria goes growing rice. In my mind, questions remain over covid-19 whether that does anything contrary to earlier forecast like warming on winter, or its effect on daily weather might be negligible, also, I worry about changes in monsoon(??) routes and strength. Its time for both parties to scrap their toys for good (my opinion) and put the money to windmills...

If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?
Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...

It's been a crazy year so far - as I predicted. And this is only the second melting season I'm following closely...  :-\ Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?  :-\
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4461 on: August 04, 2020, 05:21:54 AM »
I thought the CAB area was going up??

:)



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4462 on: August 04, 2020, 05:31:35 AM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like

So that's bad.  That's why 2020 has no chance to be above 2019.




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4463 on: August 04, 2020, 05:36:19 AM »
My take on the loss of ice north of Greenland is tidally forced Atl. entering by Svalbard enhancing the existing current towards Nares of the same waters but pushing more forcefully along the shelf creating turbulence/vortices which overspill onto the shelf. Not all of it makes it through to the Canadian side but may force it's way through in the two or three days left of peak tidal movement, after that the rotating ice should close the gap. Similarly the lighter fraction of Atl. waters is creating more turbulence along Barents shelf as it pushes east causing more melt/retreat there.

The ice loss North of GIS is from 50 days straight of sun/downslope/insane WAA.

It's been there warmest summer over the Southern CAB on record
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4464 on: August 04, 2020, 05:41:29 AM »
Christ,

Hadnt looked at ice for a couple of days. Looked at Bremen Graphs today. That ice is in rank bad order isnt it. Never seen the whole pack look so bad. There are no good bits. If it was late June thered be nothing by September but its early August. Are we late enough for it to hold? That bit off the top of Greenland really alarmed me. A couple of years ago the North of Greenland was untouchable to melt. This is getting worse than serious.


And this is with most of the arctic under clouds and fog making rune SIC appear higher than it actually is
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4465 on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:21 AM »
The growing gap ... July 23 - August 2.

Biggest thing.


TONS OF SUN
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4466 on: August 04, 2020, 06:08:07 AM »
I thought the CAB area was going up??

:)


No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.


NSIDC one day sea ice area change shows a 18,000 square kilometer increase in the CAB.



The Beaufort sea and western CAB have seen periods of below freezing temperatures over the last week. The global model weather forecasts get more favorable for sea ice retention by the day.

Areas of near average surface pressure look to dominate the arctic for the next 2 weeks. The winds appear light and variable.

These next 2 weeks are going to be amazing  ;).

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4467 on: August 04, 2020, 06:20:45 AM »
The 00zgfs dipole is only quasi and weak but its in perfect position to finish off the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Western CAB.

The wind shift takes place between hour 48-60. By hour 72 warm compacting winds will be at hand.

After hour 72 we will start seeing 75-100K loss days on jaxa.

Probably a couple century breaks.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4468 on: August 04, 2020, 07:36:53 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4469 on: August 04, 2020, 08:54:51 AM »
I thought the CAB area was going up??

:)


No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.


NSIDC one day sea ice area change shows a 18,000 square kilometer increase in the CAB.



The Beaufort sea and western CAB have seen periods of below freezing temperatures over the last week. The global model weather forecasts get more favorable for sea ice retention by the day.

Areas of near average surface pressure look to dominate the arctic for the next 2 weeks. The winds appear light and variable.

These next 2 weeks are going to be amazing  ;).

I still expect a sort of extent cliff in the beaufort; I think large parts of the beaufort, the ESS and the canadian/alaskan side of the CAB are currently above the 15% threshold, but when checking on worldview it is shattered and lots of ocean visible; Depending on weather that could just go *poof* in a couple of days

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 722
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 642
  • Likes Given: 383
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4470 on: August 04, 2020, 09:37:52 AM »
July 30 - August 3.

2019.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1487
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4471 on: August 04, 2020, 09:48:45 AM »
July 30 - August 3.

2019.
Ice almost disappears from Svalbard, totally from FJL but reappears at several points in the Kara? Must be an error, but could well still have a temporary effect on extent.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

grixm

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 329
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4472 on: August 04, 2020, 10:22:06 AM »
July 30 - August 3.


Looks like the entire pack is slowly being pulled apart down the middle. You can see it on the drift chart too.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1172
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 432
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4473 on: August 04, 2020, 10:59:51 AM »
Change in the north of Greenland for the last 2 days
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4474 on: August 04, 2020, 12:16:54 PM »
I still expect a sort of extent cliff in the beaufort; I think large parts of the beaufort, the ESS and the canadian/alaskan side of the CAB are currently above the 15% threshold, but when checking on worldview it is shattered and lots of ocean visible; Depending on weather that could just go *poof* in a couple of days

RikW, just quoted you to second what you wrote. I also think this is exactly what we're going to see.

Ice almost disappears from Svalbard, totally from FJL but reappears at several points in the Kara? Must be an error, but could well still have a temporary effect on extent.

Binntho, not an error, but clouds and humidity. Bad mix for radars as we can see each and every year. In fact that shattered ice is all over the place.

Looks like the entire pack is slowly being pulled apart down the middle. You can see it on the drift chart too

Grixm, let's give us a couple of days more to evaluate if that really materialices. Today it looks that way, yesterday it wasn't obvious. Let's see ...
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1487
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4475 on: August 04, 2020, 12:18:40 PM »
Ice almost disappears from Svalbard, totally from FJL but reappears at several points in the Kara? Must be an error, but could well still have a temporary effect on extent.

Binntho, not an error, but clouds and humidity. Bad mix for radars as we can see each and every year.


Which counts as an error in my book - marking ice where it isn't.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1373
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 591
  • Likes Given: 450
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4476 on: August 04, 2020, 01:13:53 PM »
Worry not .. PIOMAS shows plenty of thick ice N of Greenland and the pack firmly attached by thick ice to Svalbard . Our eyes obviously deceive us . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4477 on: August 04, 2020, 01:33:44 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Thomas Barlow

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4478 on: August 04, 2020, 02:57:53 PM »

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4479 on: August 04, 2020, 03:39:12 PM »
Worry not .. PIOMAS shows plenty of thick ice N of Greenland and the pack firmly attached by thick ice to Svalbard . Our eyes obviously deceive us . b.c.

PIOMAS is not perfect but it's the same for other years so it's still a good model to compare with other years.

I mean I think it was correct when 2017 started with record lows because of the very warm winter before it and whilst extent was nothing special, despite that summer actually
 being quite ordinary, the CAB ice was in poor shape by September which suggested too me things could of been really bad if we had a warm summer that year.

Back to 2020 and it's a race againat time for the icein the CAB, interesting too see how that diffused icee to the NE of Greenland develops, we probably at a stage where even southerly winds through the fram Stright is just as damaging for the ice as northerly winds is through the fram Stright. Quite a (sad) sight really and tells us what some already thought and the CAB ice is pretty thin.

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 748
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 67
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4480 on: August 04, 2020, 06:02:10 PM »
Today's worldview image of woe shows a series of three holes NNE of Greenland.

Was it ever any worse than this ? For my money the closing stages of 2016 were visually the worst. Attached image shows what happened to the Atlantic side by August 25th. Huge holes all between latitudes 85 to 88 N.

We still have 3 weeks to reach that date.  :o

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4481 on: August 04, 2020, 06:08:42 PM »
Comparing thicknesses for Aug 3.
2012, 2019, 2020.

Doesn't look that different on theses graphs. But I dare to guess that 2020 has less compactness, especially compared to pre-GAC 2012. Some MYI-floes can make these thickness graphs look like a wall – where in reality there is only debris scattered around.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4482 on: August 04, 2020, 07:02:26 PM »
Worry not .. PIOMAS shows plenty of thick ice N of Greenland and the pack firmly attached by thick ice to Svalbard . Our eyes obviously deceive us . b.c.

PIOMAS is not perfect but it's the same for other years so it's still a good model to compare with other years.

I mean I think it was correct when 2017 started with record lows because of the very warm winter before it and whilst extent was nothing special, despite that summer actually
 being quite ordinary, the CAB ice was in poor shape by September which suggested too me things could of been really bad if we had a warm summer that year.

Back to 2020 and it's a race againat time for the icein the CAB, interesting too see how that diffused icee to the NE of Greenland develops, we probably at a stage where even southerly winds through the fram Stright is just as damaging for the ice as northerly winds is through the fram Stright. Quite a (sad) sight really and tells us what some already thought and the CAB ice is pretty thin.

In theory yes but the less real ice we have larger is the impact of fake-ice on the model.

Obviously in summer area measurement is tricky at best and piomas is based on that.

As it happens this year has way more real meltponds and real open water between the ice than others which makes the impact of a flawed model larger. Errors can be multiplied once the conditions favour the flaw in a model.

For me at least it's obvious that the ice in general is thinner by quite a margin than in 2012 and any other year before this and should piomas not show a first place in lack of volume it's due to exactly those things and cannot be used to compare and cannot be taken seriously.

We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed. We have to rely on eysight and perhaps we soon have to count pixels instead of modelling, at least the outcome is somehow not a model but real ;)

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4483 on: August 04, 2020, 07:08:35 PM »
We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed.

What are you referring to? Lack of aerosols due tu non existing air travel?
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4484 on: August 04, 2020, 07:35:11 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4485 on: August 04, 2020, 07:54:11 PM »
We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed.

What are you referring to? Lack of aerosols due tu non existing air travel?

GAAC + Amount of Insolation + Currently being 1. on record + the most probable amount of Ice melted in the CAB from below and above.

If we are 1. in extend, 1. in area and had a way above average top melt we must be on record volume because all parameters say so.

On the other hand as long as a model shows ice where my (our) eyses see none at all that extra amount of ice in volume makes up for the overestimate.

Many models were built under conditions that were very very far from anything we can see these days, the past 5 years and this year in extremis.


EDIT: Above does not come with lack of appreciation for the work done, basically there are seasons where to models are still quite good, just no during the season with lots of melt ponds and wet surfaces.

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2655
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1181
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4486 on: August 04, 2020, 08:08:59 PM »
A nice comparison of 2020 and 2012 cyclones using amsr2 with pressure overlay from Lars Kaleschke on twitter.

https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/1290312291510968320
Quote
Lars Kaleschke @seaice_de
The recent cyclone in the Beaufort Sea was impressive, its central pressure dropped to a minimum of 970 hPa on July 28. This is not a new record. On August 6, 2012, the "great Arctic cyclone" reached a minimum of 964 hPa .

Data JRA-55 & AMSR2

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4487 on: August 04, 2020, 08:38:39 PM »
Worry not .. PIOMAS shows plenty of thick ice N of Greenland and the pack firmly attached by thick ice to Svalbard . Our eyes obviously deceive us . b.c.

PIOMAS is not perfect but it's the same for other years so it's still a good model to compare with other years.

I mean I think it was correct when 2017 started with record lows because of the very warm winter before it and whilst extent was nothing special, despite that summer actually
 being quite ordinary, the CAB ice was in poor shape by September which suggested too me things could of been really bad if we had a warm summer that year.

Back to 2020 and it's a race againat time for the icein the CAB, interesting too see how that diffused icee to the NE of Greenland develops, we probably at a stage where even southerly winds through the fram Stright is just as damaging for the ice as northerly winds is through the fram Stright. Quite a (sad) sight really and tells us what some already thought and the CAB ice is pretty thin.

In theory yes but the less real ice we have larger is the impact of fake-ice on the model.

Obviously in summer area measurement is tricky at best and piomas is based on that.

As it happens this year has way more real meltponds and real open water between the ice than others which makes the impact of a flawed model larger. Errors can be multiplied once the conditions favour the flaw in a model.

For me at least it's obvious that the ice in general is thinner by quite a margin than in 2012 and any other year before this and should piomas not show a first place in lack of volume it's due to exactly those things and cannot be used to compare and cannot be taken seriously.

We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed. We have to rely on eysight and perhaps we soon have to count pixels instead of modelling, at least the outcome is somehow not a model but real ;)

I don't buy into this year has more holes than other years, lots of dispersion in the Beaufort but then years like 2013/2016 had plenty of holes in the CAB also which no doubt affects the PIOMAS model.

I just think it's fair to say volume is near record lows, the volume in the CAB is near record lows and that what PIOMAS shows.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1373
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 591
  • Likes Given: 450
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4488 on: August 04, 2020, 09:27:37 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1290643458164535296/photo/1 ..

^^ 2020 usurps 2007 as the warmest July in the Arctic . Click for Zack's latest ... b.c.

 
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 09:33:54 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 57
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4489 on: August 04, 2020, 09:41:30 PM »
Zack's plot also shows just how anomalous May through July was. Here is 70-90N 925Mb temps for the same span of months over the years

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4490 on: August 04, 2020, 09:53:14 PM »
Many models were built under conditions that were very very far from anything we can see these days, the past 5 years and this year in extremis.

Thank you igs. I think they could have problems with the lack of coherence of todays ice. Many small floes swirling around for example could be interpreted as a single surface and some thick MYI-floes within that mess could stand for the whole thickness value. That could for example turn 50% ice coverage into 100% and an average thickness of 1m into 2m. Result: four times more ice than there really is. Even much smaller deviations could give distorted results due to the exponential characteristics of three dimensional volumes.

I don't buy into this year has more holes than other years, lots of dispersion in the Beaufort but then years like 2013/2016 had plenty of holes in the CAB also which no doubt affects the PIOMAS model.

Hello Paul, that came to my mind, too. There are similarities to 2013 when I was convinced – still under the impression of 2012 – that the ice would go poof. It didn't. But this year the ice dispersed earlier and melted faster. But I'm still not back on the poof-side. Anyway, I think it is well possible that the sensors back then also struggled but it resulted it was a "recovery" year and so of course no historic harm was measured. This year is a slightly different story where malinterpretations could lead to a totally wrong evaluation of the situation.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 10:05:21 PM by Thawing Thunder »
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4491 on: August 04, 2020, 10:40:38 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1290643458164535296/photo/1 ..

^^ 2020 usurps 2007 as the warmest July in the Arctic . Click for Zack's latest ... b.c.

Moreover, in the Siberian sector, July 2020 turned out to be even more extreme than July 2007. Then the past years were exceeded by 400 thousand km2, and now by 600 thousand km2.

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1290451927722008579/photo/1

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4492 on: August 04, 2020, 10:52:47 PM »
NNE of Greenland  breakup is accelerating today. As far as 300 Miles North of the North Greenland coast.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 09:57:10 PM by glennbuck »

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 152
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4493 on: August 04, 2020, 11:09:53 PM »
I'm reluctant to say this since I cannot prove it, but I REALLY am starting to wonder if we're witnessing a somewhat paradigm shift in the Atlantic currents to cause the breakup above Greenland/Lincoln Sea. I realize it's been quite warm in that entire region, but I do not think surface melt alone is enough to facilitate so much action and change.

It's really surprising to see and certainly a hallmark of the post-2019 season. I really do cite the mega crack's formation last year as the first sign that things were changing. Again, I can't say where and how far the current may be spreading north of Greenland, but I'm beginning to suspect that the ice edge along the Fram Strait in some ways are merging with warmer waters in the north Atlantic. It's impossible for me to ignore a 15-30mi wide fetch of exposed water in a region which really has not encountered it (at least in the satellite era, tho I suspect far earlier).

Anyways, given what we have seen with Atlantification, I believe the melting above Greenland really is a sign of the broader changes taking place. The Gulf Stream is really cooking this year and at some level all of these systems are connected. I'll patiently keep watching this area because it's the most exciting to me.

pls!

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2655
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1181
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4494 on: August 04, 2020, 11:23:06 PM »
There may be another contributing factor.
It's easy to forget how far clockwise the pack rotated during July. Kaleschke SIC-LEADS is the best tool I could think of to show it. jun29-jul22.
Quote
The PS originally parked, in October, a bit north of the edge of Laptev open water in a matrix too thin to stand on. As it TPD’ed, a huge swath of edge moved with it (along with the ice in front) and new ice formed behind. As the motion continued, even more new ice was formed behind in the southern Laptev.

At the beginning of July nearly all of the ice 'above' and to the ‘right’ of the Polarstern path(in blue) is FYI of varying monthly ages or SYI that was very thin in October.

Quote
Although ice thickens very fast at first, it does not mature in terms of brine pocket extrusion and thus does not gain material strength even though it might formally reach “2m” in nominal thickness.

This animation stops on July22, leaving another 13 days of drift. Is it possible that the open water north of Greenland is the edge of the first year ice from Laptev?

Unfortunately there is no buoy in a location that can verify the idea.

Found one and the answer is no.
Rotation north of Greenland during July was ~18deg. Something useful came out of it ;)
Guess I didn't have to do that in public
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 12:40:53 AM by uniquorn »

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4495 on: August 04, 2020, 11:29:44 PM »
The North pole today, 40 miles North is open water and 120 Miles North a larger area is opening up. From the true North Pole all direction point south.

The North Pole is the North Pole of course, but in magnetic terms, it’s the magnetic South Pole. However at some point in the future the poles will ‘flip’ and compasses will point south. Then the North Pole will be the undisputed North Pole.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 09:58:17 PM by glennbuck »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6174
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2231
  • Likes Given: 1873
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4496 on: August 04, 2020, 11:36:36 PM »
I bet you meant south...

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4497 on: August 04, 2020, 11:54:06 PM »
I bet you meant south...
What??? Oh!!!   ;D
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Thomas Barlow

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4498 on: August 05, 2020, 12:08:51 AM »
Comparing thicknesses for Aug 3.
2012, 2019, 2020.

Doesn't look that different on theses graphs. But I dare to guess that 2020 has less compactness, especially compared to pre-GAC 2012. Some MYI-floes can make these thickness graphs look like a wall – where in reality there is only debris scattered around.

Yes, it's a thickness map, not extent.
So I took out ice up to 1m thick.
The difference between years is significant.
Top: 2019 to 2020.
Bottom:2012 to 2020
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 10:12:35 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4499 on: August 05, 2020, 12:13:16 AM »
Losses are about to substantially pick up.



« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 12:23:02 AM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow