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igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4501 on: August 05, 2020, 03:02:09 AM »
I don't buy into this year has more holes than other years,

You don't have to but then i don't get what you're heading at. If you mean to say that Piomas is reliable in summer this is your right to believe but argueing with fairness terms while things finally are about facts does not leave much room for further discussions.

I suggest to just observe futher, I'll do the same and sooner or later we gonna know hopefully  :)

tzupancic

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4502 on: August 05, 2020, 05:03:38 AM »
Arctic Sea Ice

Anticipating what happens next.  Is it bad? Is it good? Is it… whatever?

What to believe… Area? Extent? … Volume? 

What is the significance of what just happened to the Arctic during this melt season?

The effects of temperatures (WAA’s)  and Solar Insolation…  Did they have a substantive impact?

Based on what model? What data source?  How are these hypotheses relevant?

Or is it simply about the weather in August? And nothing has really changed in the Arctic.

As the 2020 melt season enters a key stage.

« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 05:35:19 AM by tzupancic »

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4503 on: August 05, 2020, 06:48:27 AM »
I'm reluctant to say this since I cannot prove it, but I REALLY am starting to wonder if we're witnessing a somewhat paradigm shift in the Atlantic currents to cause the breakup above Greenland/Lincoln Sea. I realize it's been quite warm in that entire region, but I do not think surface melt alone is enough to facilitate so much action and change.

There may well be a pardigm shift in currents as you say. But a more likely explanation comes to mind, although I could be wrong, but here goes: Off the north-east corner of Greenland you will find a very persistent and large polynia every single year. I don't think it is the one prosaically called the North East Water polynia (NEW), the description does not really fit. There is another Sirius Water Polonya as well, but that is considerably further south.

The polynia in question seems to be in the first stages of opening up in the image below. The grey blotch in the middle is what I take to be fast ice that has formed during the winter months and is here seen melting rapidly from below. The surrounding ice was not really moving this early in spring but once general ice movement gets closer to Greenland, this polynia can be more or less obscured by inflowing ice and is rarely "clean".

As I say, this seems to repeat every year that I have followed the Arctic and I seem to remember that there was a general consensus that this was caused by upwelling of warm waters that most likely had somehow escaped from the Spitzbergen current on the other side of the Fram strait, dippeed under the East Greenland Current, to resurface here at the coast of Greenland.

And it has of course occurred to me that the current opening up of ice further north of Greenland was somehow linked to this polynia and the warm upwelling. So not a paradigm change, no, but perhaps a change in magnitude - at least in temperature but perhaps also in the amount of water involved.

Or perhaps the combination of an existing current and persistent warm southerly winds were enough? And not to forget that winds over open ocean can strengthen surface currents, pulling them further and increasing their flow.

Both images benefit from a click.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 07:02:18 AM by binntho »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4504 on: August 05, 2020, 07:07:56 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4505 on: August 05, 2020, 07:08:36 AM »


It's really surprising to see and certainly a hallmark of the post-2019 season. I really do cite the mega crack's formation last year as the first sign that things were changing. Again, I can't say where and how far the current may be spreading north of Greenland, but I'm beginning to suspect that the ice edge along the Fram Strait in some ways are merging with warmer waters in the north Atlantic. It's impossible for me to ignore a 15-30mi wide fetch of exposed water in a region which really has not encountered it (at least in the satellite era, tho I suspect far earlier).

I think you may be onto something.  We keep seeing the same partial melt band across the Fram in recent years and it seems to be pushing deeper into the CAB now.  I agree that this is something to watch as potentially a new dynamic.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4506 on: August 05, 2020, 07:26:06 AM »
Are there any opinions on the value and accuracy of the various arctic 10 day forecast animations at weather-forecast.com?  I like the visuals and options but am wondering about the predictive value?

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4507 on: August 05, 2020, 09:17:31 AM »
Are there any opinions on the value and accuracy of the various arctic 10 day forecast animations at weather-forecast.com?  I like the visuals and options but am wondering about the predictive value?
10 day right now can’t be trusted. 5 day barely ok

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4508 on: August 05, 2020, 10:09:34 AM »
North of Greenland over the last 6 days.

Higher-res version on twitter here: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1290921823769632768
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4509 on: August 05, 2020, 10:45:28 AM »
Are there any opinions on the value and accuracy of the various arctic 10 day forecast animations at weather-forecast.com?  I like the visuals and options but am wondering about the predictive value?
10 day right now can’t be trusted. 5 day barely ok

For now, confidence in the forecast can be high up to 5 -6 days. Models are in good agreement for a weak dipole, and the spread within the ensemble is low (this is especialy noticeable for Beaufort Sea). This pattern is linked to the propagation of two rossby waves packet from Western Pacific. This pattern should break around the 11 - 12th, but until this date, confidence in the forecast can be high?

Sorry I don't have the mean to fully exploit the dataset for MERRA reanalysis

A fellow Panoply user by the look of it  :)

Can you provide a link to the data behind that visualisation? And any other data sources you access regularly. This is my favourite:

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/wave/prod/

TIA

As this map generate some interests I have updated an old chart with data for 2020 (up to the 30th of June). Accumulated net downward shortwave flux was quite low until the 30 th of June.

P.S. : By the way hurricane Isaias is not going to have a significant impact on large scale circulation despite a strong XT transition, as can be seen on the hovmöller of meriodional wind.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 12:07:14 PM by aslan »

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4510 on: August 05, 2020, 10:46:00 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Trouble about to arrive to the Beaufort in a few days with warm winds off the CAA from the east. We may also see M'Clure Strait clearing out.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4511 on: August 05, 2020, 11:17:57 AM »
Had to use mp4 to show mercator (model) current at 34m depth, mar21-aug4.  1MB
Too many colours, can move to another thread


https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Main-pathways-of-Atlantic-Water-in-the-Nordic-Seas-IC-Irminger-Current-NIIC-North_fig3_26626835
from 2009
Quote
After the two WSC branches converge at latitude 78◦N (Walczowski et al. 2005, Walczowski & Piechura 2006), the AW inflow divides again into two or even three branches. The easternmost branch (Svalbard Branch, SB) continues over the Svalbard slope, flows into the Arctic Ocean, where it circulates cyclonically (Rudels et al. 1999) and is covered by fresher and colder waters. The central flow (Yermack Branch, YB) continues northwards over the shallow Yermack Plateau. The western branch of AW recirculates west and south-westwards as the Return Atlantic Current (RAC).
In recent years, properties, volume and heat transport of AW have been observed to be highly variable; these variations have influenced ice conditions in Fram Strait region.

As Binntho noted upthread, possible that one of the branches reaches further north/west in some conditions.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 03:03:24 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4512 on: August 05, 2020, 12:22:51 PM »
A 1MB mp4 is okay. We have some images that are larger than that.

aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4513 on: August 05, 2020, 12:57:08 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Trouble about to arrive to the Beaufort in a few days with warm winds off the CAA from the east. We may also see M'Clure Strait clearing out.

Nothing new, but there is as always a strong funneling effect when isobars are parallels to the coast. The easterlies are forceast to reach 25 to 35kt along the Arctic coast and in the Parry channel. This is also going to be a significant surge event for the northern coast of Alaska.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4514 on: August 05, 2020, 01:02:51 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Trouble about to arrive to the Beaufort in a few days with warm winds off the CAA from the east. We may also see M'Clure Strait clearing out.
Hi Oren. It sure looks like it. Like I said before; The beaufort will finally get its moment in the sun.

I was really surprised to see how much damage that secondary low did to the ice when I saw the ice concentration map this morning. It'll be interesting to see what this warm southerly will do to the fragile ice.

Any way you look at it, the pacific side is catching up fast. And so now we wait to see if that GAC will materialize that's been predicted for a few days now in the long term forecast. This could be the final blow for the ice as it will completely disperse all the ice into the warmer surrounding waters.

Worrying times...

Edit: Have you noticed how most of the mega crack has closed up?

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4515 on: August 05, 2020, 01:39:43 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4516 on: August 05, 2020, 02:14:44 PM »
Earthquake, M 5.3 - north of Svalbard

2020-08-05 08:48:06 (UTC)

87.349°N 6.505°E

10.0 km depth

approx: 200 miles from the North Pole.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000b9kr/executive
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 04:00:37 PM by glennbuck »

ajouis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4517 on: August 05, 2020, 02:26:45 PM »
Are there any opinions on the value and accuracy of the various arctic 10 day forecast animations at weather-forecast.com?  I like the visuals and options but am wondering about the predictive value?

I said before, in another thread, that it cannot be trusted, it is utterly useless, was predicting lows during the long basin wide highs, and routinely predicts patterns contrary and opposite to the main models. If you want to use a weather forecast, here’s good
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts
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 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4518 on: August 05, 2020, 02:30:09 PM »
Edit: Have you noticed how most of the mega crack has closed up?

The megacrack has been dissolved in eastern part of ice, the storm shook the pack loose. Look at how evenly loose floes settle to the area, polar bears will have to make some huge jumps or swim between them now.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4519 on: August 05, 2020, 02:34:35 PM »
Are there any opinions on the value and accuracy of the various arctic 10 day forecast animations at weather-forecast.com?  I like the visuals and options but am wondering about the predictive value?

I said before, in another thread, that it cannot be trusted, it is utterly useless, was predicting lows during the long basin wide highs, and routinely predicts patterns contrary and opposite to the main models. If you want to use a weather forecast, here’s good
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts
You're absolutely right about that. The long term forecasts have been utterly useless this year. But they do sometimes show what's brewing. The GAC that's been predicted has a small probability, but it is in the charts. So you can't rule it out completely.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4520 on: August 05, 2020, 02:43:45 PM »
The Beaufort high potential does seem to of backed off somewhat now, not to say its has gone but the forecasts don't look all that threatening I would say.

One thing to note, some quite chilly air will head to Laptev, kind of a good and bad thing at the same time(if you want to avoid record lows etc), the bad side will be more ice spread towards the warmer waters however the plus side we may see those SSTS cool down a little bit.

Who knows what all this means for extent, deep low aside, the forecasts has not been all that bad for the ice yet we are still lowest on record and drops are still fairly steep. It probably shows just how thin the ice really is. The next 2 weeks will probably tell us whether we got a chance at record lows or not, I still maintain probably not but 2nd lowest and an extent under 4 million is still very likely.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4521 on: August 05, 2020, 02:44:00 PM »
Edit: Have you noticed how most of the mega crack has closed up?

The megacrack has been dissolved in eastern part of ice, the storm shook the pack loose. Look at how evenly loose floes settle to the area, polar bears will have to make some huge jumps or swim between them now.
I agree. The crack has filled up with loose floes, but the big gap of open water is gone now. I'm sure polar bears will be a lot happier than they've been.
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The Walrus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4522 on: August 05, 2020, 03:27:56 PM »
Ahhhh... the yearly battle.against 2012 extent and area August drops is approaching...slope is flattening out tho

Yes, barring a 2012esque drop, the worst 2020 will finish is 2nd lowest.  All that is required is an average melt over the remainder of the season to reach that.  At this point 2019 and 2020 are running neck and neck, so a similar finish would not be unexpected.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4523 on: August 05, 2020, 05:04:25 PM »
Lots of extent, but not much volume I think.
Yes, the pacific side looking particularly fragile and north of Greenland. The garlic press starting to open up. amsr2-uhh, jul27-aug4. click
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 05:13:39 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4524 on: August 05, 2020, 05:18:26 PM »
I agree. The crack has filled up with loose floes, but the big gap of open water is gone now. I'm sure polar bears will be a lot happier than they've been.

And colder temperatures too. At Cape Morris Jesup on the northern tip of Greenland it dipped below zero at 10 UTC yesterday and has remained below since. Was  down to -2.7 during earlier. Might put a crust on a fresh water pond  :P

Better than a week ago when they had several days in double figures.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4525 on: August 05, 2020, 06:47:48 PM »
I think the reason for the big opening north of Greenland is just that the winds have been consistently from the south for about 2 weeks now. It opened up before, so the solid icepack once there was already gone. Even in winter it must be just chunks of relic ice glued together with FYI. Looks the same on imaging, but not the same on the water.

The shocking thing from that ice picture is that there's just no solid ice left anywhere. It's just swirls of more and less dense areas. That said, insolation is fading fast and dispersed ice can hang around a long time (hello, Hudson Bay this year). So I think we'll see extent below 2012 only if there's something comparable to the GAC this year. In hindsight, 2012 was a very exceptional year.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4526 on: August 05, 2020, 07:29:02 PM »
Welcome, CurtAdams.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4527 on: August 05, 2020, 07:56:18 PM »
Yes, 2012 was very exceptional in my understanding. I expect we will get a string of second places for a few years till the long term trend puts us below 2012 and the we are ****ed.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4528 on: August 05, 2020, 07:59:03 PM »
North Greenland ice moving into the North East Greenland area where a gap is opening into the Greenland Sea. Notice the open water to the NNE of Greenland also.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 01:14:25 PM by glennbuck »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4529 on: August 05, 2020, 08:41:38 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4530 on: August 05, 2020, 09:09:39 PM »
Posting to the main thread for awareness.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4531 on: August 05, 2020, 11:13:46 PM »
Yes, 2012 was very exceptional in my understanding. I expect we will get a string of second places for a few years till the long term trend puts us below 2012 and the we are ****ed.

Succinctly put Tom. Extent will likely hold up/plateau for a while yet but each year the fraction of MYI gets less and less until there is near Arctic wide FYI and that wont stand a chance with a summer like this one (or 2012).

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4532 on: August 06, 2020, 01:10:18 AM »
Posting to the main thread for awareness.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4533 on: August 06, 2020, 01:20:35 AM »
The Lincoln Sea open water today.
Northern coast of Ellesmere Island in northern Canada, near the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf view of the open water in the Arctic Ocean.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 01:49:33 AM by glennbuck »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4534 on: August 06, 2020, 02:49:50 AM »
As more evidence of the exceptional melting year we are having, yesterday the ice caps on FJL melted more than they usually do in an entire summer!

Quote
As a result of the Arctic sea ice collapse, record of melt runoff has been reached yesterday and today over the Franz Joseph ice caps (Russian Arctic). In 1 day,  the MAR-GFS model suggests that Franz Joseph ice caps have lost the equivalent of melt over a whole normal summer!

https://twitter.com/xavierfettweis/status/1291084643085832193?s=21

Dr. Fettweis (the person quoted above) is a climate scientist at the University of Liege in Belgium. 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4535 on: August 06, 2020, 03:11:44 AM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1290643458164535296/photo/1 ..

^^ 2020 usurps 2007 as the warmest July in the Arctic . Click for Zack's latest ... b.c.

Just posting the table from Zach Labe referenced in a post yesterday by be cause.  It is just helpful for me to see the visual.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4536 on: August 06, 2020, 05:57:48 AM »
The North pole today, 40 miles North is open water and 120 Miles North a larger area is opening up. From the true North Pole all direction point south.

The North Pole is the North Pole of course, but in magnetic terms, it’s the magnetic South Pole. However at some point in the future the poles will ‘flip’ and compasses will point south. Then the North Pole will be the undisputed North Pole.
Leads at the N. Pole, even substantial ones, are not that unusual.

When we have open water at the N pole, and no ice within 100km, then it will be notable.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4537 on: August 06, 2020, 06:07:43 AM »
This.

This is what I was getting at with the comparison post (of ice quality) I was getting at a few days ago.

I think the purple areas are a good preview of what our end of season extent will look like.

Extent will make a run at 2012, but not make it.

Area may quite likely drop below 2012, 16 & 19.

(Edit: I expect volume to drop in the tank, becoming lowest on record).
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4538 on: August 06, 2020, 07:10:21 AM »
August 1-5.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4539 on: August 06, 2020, 07:40:31 AM »
This.

This is what I was getting at with the comparison post (of ice quality) I was getting at a few days ago.

I think the purple areas are a good preview of what our end of season extent will look like.

Extent will make a run at 2012, but not make it.

Area may quite likely drop below 2012, 16 & 19.

(Edit: I expect volume to drop in the tank, becoming lowest on record).

That's how it's looking.

What's really remarkable is that the actual winds all summer do not favor 2020 finishing anywhere near this low.

This is straight hardcore melt.

And we still don't know.

2020 might have large areas just vanish in the CAB.

But winds have been prefect for extent to not drop at all the last 2 weeks.

And 2020 for now is still in last
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4540 on: August 06, 2020, 08:00:57 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4541 on: August 06, 2020, 10:07:25 AM »
Detailed look at 7 days of ice movement and change on the north coast of Greenland.

(Larger file version here: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1291283817366421506)
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4542 on: August 06, 2020, 10:31:07 AM »
This.

This is what I was getting at with the comparison post (of ice quality) I was getting at a few days ago.

I think the purple areas are a good preview of what our end of season extent will look like.

Extent will make a run at 2012, but not make it.

Area may quite likely drop below 2012, 16 & 19.

(Edit: I expect volume to drop in the tank, becoming lowest on record).

That's how it's looking.

What's really remarkable is that the actual winds all summer do not favor 2020 finishing anywhere near this low.

No but the temperatures do indicate a fast melt though and the warm temperatures has been in areas where ice thickness has been below average. It's why I said previously the irony that if we seen more of a true dipole conditions, we may of seen higher extent(as the Beaufort would taken longer to melt out and the Siberian ice would be trying to hang on in cooler conditions) but the impacts by now would be felt even more as the Siberian ice would be melting out and the Beaufort ice would be melting away by now if it had warmer conditions.

I think the only saving grace for the diffused ice on the Pacific side of the basin is the fact SSTS are around average for the most part and not way above average like it is in the Laptev. That said, I think it will be a tall order for most of that ice to survive another month and nothing has changed my thoughts extent will drop below 4 million on JAXA. As you say, despite more favourable weather conditions, we are still lowest on record.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4543 on: August 06, 2020, 11:05:36 AM »
Animation of the Beaufort sea over the last 12 days.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4544 on: August 06, 2020, 11:11:09 AM »
That's easily 1m km2 about to go disappear!
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4545 on: August 06, 2020, 01:28:01 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

It looks like the beaufort ice will sustain some damage in the coming days...
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4546 on: August 06, 2020, 01:48:39 PM »
Ice Temperature tomorrow between 6C-12C in parts of the East Siberian Sea.

I think that's indicating temps below zero, my friend.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4547 on: August 06, 2020, 01:57:48 PM »
Polarview S1B image of the Beaufort/Chukchi yesterday.

yikes! The area further north doesn't look much better

Some decent sized floes nearer the CAA
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 02:14:59 PM by uniquorn »

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4548 on: August 06, 2020, 02:34:54 PM »
Ice Temperature tomorrow between 6C-12C in parts of the East Siberian Sea.

I think that's indicating temps below zero, my friend.
Unfortunately, the intrepid poster has removed his post, but I very much doubt that you'll find any temps significantly under zero anywhere today! But Ice at 6-12C is of course rather unlikely, unless airpressure happened to be in the region of 100kPa. But I'm sure we'd heard about it!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4549 on: August 06, 2020, 03:11:46 PM »
Ice Temperature tomorrow between 6C-12C in parts of the East Siberian Sea.

I think that's indicating temps below zero, my friend.
Unfortunately, the intrepid poster has removed his post, but I very much doubt that you'll find any temps significantly under zero anywhere today! But Ice at 6-12C is of course rather unlikely, unless airpressure happened to be in the region of 100kPa. But I'm sure we'd heard about it!

I did not think the ice was 6-12C, i missed the Minus sign -6C,-12C, removed post as people jumping all over the error.
My point, which could have been expressed better, was that I find -6C to -12C only marginally less likely than 6C to 12C for the ice. So I don't think you missed a minus sign. I think you meant to say that the surface temperatures of the open ocean in that area was 6C to 12C which is not very likely but then again could well be the case in this very strange season.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6