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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4550 on: August 06, 2020, 03:50:12 PM »
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4551 on: August 06, 2020, 04:41:20 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 5th,  3,506.560 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area.

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4552 on: August 06, 2020, 04:58:11 PM »
Latest projection now requires a recording breaking extent reduction to beat 2012. The average of the last 10 years produces the 5th lowest minimum, 4.16 million km2
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4553 on: August 06, 2020, 04:59:52 PM »
Good view of parts of the Greenland Sea today and the Fram Strait
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 01:52:33 PM by glennbuck »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4554 on: August 06, 2020, 05:33:33 PM »
By and large much of the north of Greenland & north Ellesmere is seeing air temperatures close to or below freezing. However microclimates can occur where combinations of downslope winds/no snow/open water can yield much higher temperatures. At Station Nord at over 81 North today the temperature has risen to 15.4 C. This localised warm value is currently not showing up on Nullschool. 

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4555 on: August 06, 2020, 07:10:40 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
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Simon

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4556 on: August 06, 2020, 09:34:09 PM »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4557 on: August 06, 2020, 09:36:00 PM »
Almost impressive how focused the positive temperature anomalies are forecast to be for the next 5 days, right over the remaining thick ice.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4558 on: August 06, 2020, 09:57:50 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Looks like the ice is going to get blown around a bit. Some of it dispersing, some of it compacting, some of it getting both. I suspect that extent might not drop that fast, but area will as waves get churned up and ice gets pushed into warmer water. Especially in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev and on the Atlantic fronts.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4559 on: August 06, 2020, 10:02:56 PM »
JAXA AMSR2 Arctic Sea ice average thickness, this was not available for the 4th of August and it looks like it set a new seasons record low beating 2015,s record low, that was set later in August. Moved back up today on the 5th August.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 10:21:41 PM by glennbuck »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4560 on: August 06, 2020, 10:45:52 PM »
The Big Flush has begun. Curious to see how much of the Lincoln sea ice will get drained through Nares with those strong winds predicted this week.

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4561 on: August 06, 2020, 10:56:52 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Looks like the ice is going to get blown around a bit. Some of it dispersing, some of it compacting, some of it getting both. I suspect that extent might not drop that fast, but area will as waves get churned up and ice gets pushed into warmer water. Especially in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev and on the Atlantic fronts.
Because there's no dominating high or low, the air is full of little highs and lows all bumping into each other, creating all kinds of disturbances that will surely have an effect on the ice. How much that'll be, we'll know after the facts, but it sure is an interesting set-up that I haven't seen before.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4562 on: August 06, 2020, 11:01:46 PM »
Re: the Big Flush, all those big (and probably quite thick) floes that originated from the north coast of Greenland did not manage to get away far enough, and now with the combination of wind and current do not have much hope of avoiding export.
I'm sure someone will mention the possibility of such a floe plugging the strait, but they'll almost certainly shatter at first opportunity.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4563 on: August 06, 2020, 11:15:09 PM »
There was one big floe - center top of the gif - that was big enough to block the strait, but that floe doesn't seem to move much (yet?). It seems to have drifted too far east to get dragged into the strait. But it sure will be an interesting week in Nares. Grumpy Old Ellesmere Dude has his eye on it...  ::)
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 11:45:44 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4564 on: August 06, 2020, 11:26:36 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Looks like the ice is going to get blown around a bit. Some of it dispersing, some of it compacting, some of it getting both. I suspect that extent might not drop that fast, but area will as waves get churned up and ice gets pushed into warmer water. Especially in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev and on the Atlantic fronts.
Because there's no dominating high or low, the air is full of little highs and lows all bumping into each other, creating all kinds of disturbances that will surely have an effect on the ice. How much that'll be, we'll know after the facts, but it sure is an interesting set-up that I haven't seen before.

Surely you seen set ups where the pressure pattern is fairly slack? I would say low pressure is more dominant towards the Pacific side of the basin with higher pressure near the pole. Infact one could argue we are shortly arriving at the point where a high pressure cell with colder air underneath it is perhaps better for the ice than not? However it would seem especially on the ECM(As it does not have a cold bias in the longer range like the GFS) the high does not really have cold uppers underneath it. It is also impressive to note on the output, very little fram export is forecast but given the developments to the NE of Greenland, who knows what those continuous southerlies into the pole will result in the ice. In most years, it should be a good thing but this year, we shall find out.

That said, in general, the weather looks fairly uneventful for the ice, no big storms, no dipoles, bog standard stuff really. Will it result in bog standard extent drops or will the diffused ice near the Chukchi sea melt away regardless?

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4565 on: August 07, 2020, 12:21:20 AM »

Leads at the N. Pole, even substantial ones, are not that unusual.

When we have open water at the N pole, and no ice within 100km, then it will be notable.

You could get that Picture soon, the next 5 days surface temperatures around the North Pole are up to +2C, with thin ice already in that area, +5 days at 1C to 2C, we will see what it is like on the 11th August.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 08:13:10 PM by glennbuck »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4566 on: August 07, 2020, 01:12:37 AM »
Almost impressive how focused the positive temperature anomalies are forecast to be for the next 5 days, right over the remaining thick ice.

Those anomalies are the 850 hPa, circa 5,000ft ASL. Here are the next 3 days anomalies right over the ice i.e. at 2m ASL.

Warm anomalies in east Greenland, southern CAA and Kara. Area with thickest ice remains white.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4567 on: August 07, 2020, 02:07:06 AM »
Almost impressive how focused the positive temperature anomalies are forecast to be for the next 5 days, right over the remaining thick ice.

Those anomalies are the 850 hPa, circa 5,000ft ASL. Here are the next 3 days anomalies right over the ice i.e. at 2m ASL.

Warm anomalies in east Greenland, southern CAA and Kara. Area with thickest ice remains white.

I agree with what your saying but unfortunately using a GFS chart that compare temperature anaomolies with the ECM chart BFTV is using is not the same as the GFS does have a cooler bias.

ECM is warmer at higher levels but looking at the set up, unless there is a fohn affect over Greenland, then I don't see temperatures at ice level being all that different between the two models.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4568 on: August 07, 2020, 02:46:57 AM »
That's a bit pedantic, Paul.

Okay it might be more consistent to stick with the one model, however scrollling through both ECMWF and GFS 2m anomalies over next few days both show very little +ve anomalies in the area BFTV has circled.  (If anything I would say GFS is more often the warmer at the 2m level over the Arctic basin).

But this is distracting from the main point of my post - not to confuse 850hPa with 2m temps.

850hPa temps are of course very useful for other reasons. So I cannot be sure exactly what BFTV's intention was. It could be said for example that the high 850hPa's are indicative of the presence of high pressure over the area of thickest ice.


Davidsf

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4569 on: August 07, 2020, 03:55:43 AM »
A bit of oldish news and apologies if this has already been posted (I won't have time to catch up on the blog until tomorrow morning). Reuters on the collapse of the Mine Ice Shelf.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/canadas-last-fully-intact-arctic-233003096.html


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4570 on: August 07, 2020, 04:58:12 AM »
Looking at high resolution UH AMSR2 area data (2012-2020), the contrasts continue. While the CAB is at record low and the CAA is heading down near record lows, the Greenland Sea is at record high for the date, and the Beaufort at record high too and refuses to drop.
Personally I expect the Beaufort to lose a lot of area in the coming month, but the Arctic always has the last word.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4571 on: August 07, 2020, 05:34:35 AM »
No need to argue over surface temps.

AMSR2 scans the surface for wetness.  If the ice surface freezes up and I mean barely freezes amsr2 won't consider it wet.

Comparing 2020, 2019, 2016, and 2012.  This year is still pretty melting all over.  Even if its slow.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4572 on: August 07, 2020, 05:41:26 AM »
This is why the SOUTHERN CAB is ruined.  This is why I can't understand how anyone can think the thickest ice didn't get hit hard.



From nsidc:

Quote
Figure 5b. This figure shows melt pond fractional area anomalies for May (left) and June (right). Red colors show more extensive melt ponds relative to the 2002 to 2020 average, whereas blue colors show fewer melt ponds than average.

Credit: Sanggyun Lee, University College London
High-resolution image
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4573 on: August 07, 2020, 05:43:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table and graph.

I think this is going to be the last small drop for a while.

I expect 60-85K drops for the next 10 days maybe longer coming up.

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4574 on: August 07, 2020, 07:40:52 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4575 on: August 07, 2020, 08:29:33 AM »
Wonder is extents time in 1st place over for the melt season due to all this ruined ice being spread everywhere and the onset of darker and colder nights at least? 2012 will be hard to pass and even 2019 will be giving it a run no matter how ridiculous I've been told this is I still stick by it even though I may be wrong.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4576 on: August 07, 2020, 08:39:33 AM »
The low over southern CAA is forecasted to bottom to around 990 hPa (993 for the 00Z of IFS and 991 for the 00Z of ARP). This is going to be quite an event locally. Winds up to 35 kts are likely and the ice wich is already weak in the southern Beaufort could be decimated. Not an event of the scale of the whole arctic bassin, but this low is going to hit hard a region of above average but weak ice again. Also models are forecasting a new ridge building from the Pacific for after mid august. This is worth watching.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4577 on: August 07, 2020, 08:40:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table and graph.

I think this is going to be the last small drop for a while.

I expect 60-85K drops for the next 10 days maybe longer coming up.

Personslly, I expect this is the end of drawing on new bits of the graph paper until after the minimum.

Killian

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4578 on: August 07, 2020, 09:59:25 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

Nailed. Not important, perhaps (ah, but patterns do matter...), but fun.

2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th, then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Looks like I might be a bit early on 2019.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4579 on: August 07, 2020, 10:25:16 AM »
That's a bit pedantic, Paul.

Okay it might be more consistent to stick with the one model, however scrollling through both ECMWF and GFS 2m anomalies over next few days both show very little +ve anomalies in the area BFTV has circled.  (If anything I would say GFS is more often the warmer at the 2m level over the Arctic basin).

But this is distracting from the main point of my post - not to confuse 850hPa with 2m temps.

850hPa temps are of course very useful for other reasons. So I cannot be sure exactly what BFTV's intention was. It could be said for example that the high 850hPa's are indicative of the presence of high pressure over the area of thickest ice.

Remember that over the ice the surface temperature will be pegged close to 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, much like the 80N temps are. So you will not see strong +ve surface temperature values until the ice has melted, no matter how much heat is actually in the air.
As such, using 850hPa level (or 925hPa if available) in these situations works better for assessing ice thaw than surface level values.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4580 on: August 07, 2020, 11:29:46 AM »
Tides, currents, upwelling, eddies. Others call it chaos. Point in case: The Fram Strait.

Give the GIF a click and give yourself some time to watch it.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4581 on: August 07, 2020, 11:31:13 AM »
I haven't seen anything about this on this forum, so:

Last Canadian ice shelf goes bust.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/canadas-last-fully-intact-arctic-233003096.html

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4582 on: August 07, 2020, 11:34:55 AM »
Remember that over the ice the surface temperature will be pegged close to 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, much like the 80N temps are. So you will not see strong +ve surface temperature values until the ice has melted, no matter how much heat is actually in the air.
As such, using 850hPa level (or 925hPa if available) in these situations works better for assessing ice thaw than surface level values.

Well said sir!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4583 on: August 07, 2020, 11:36:56 AM »
I haven't seen anything about this on this forum, so:

Sorry, Killian, but if you haven't seen it in multiple places already, then you are clearly not paying attention. :P

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4584 on: August 07, 2020, 11:55:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table and graph.

I think this is going to be the last small drop for a while.

I expect 60-85K drops for the next 10 days maybe longer coming up.
Why do you expect such large drops?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4585 on: August 07, 2020, 12:10:33 PM »
Remember that over the ice the surface temperature will be pegged close to 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, much like the 80N temps are. So you will not see strong +ve surface temperature values until the ice has melted, no matter how much heat is actually in the air.
As such, using 850hPa level (or 925hPa if available) in these situations works better for assessing ice thaw than surface level values.

Well said sir!
Well, there be high temps on Chukchi and Beaufort for 48 hours.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/08/09/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-82.04,66.30,601/loc=-166.928,75.982
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4586 on: August 07, 2020, 01:20:03 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4587 on: August 07, 2020, 02:13:41 PM »
JAXA AMSR2 Arctic Sea ice average thickness, this was not available for the 4th of August and it looks like it set a new seasons record low beating 2015,s record low, that was set later in August. Moved back up today on the 5th August.

For me this has been one of the most revealing graphs, telling me that, whatever conditions we might get, melt is far from over yet. Considering that much of that thin ice is in Beaufort, and therefore relatively south, there are going to be a lot of losses. Also the Greenland Sea soon will loose more ice. I stick to my prediction that 2020 will come close to the final 2012 quadrangle.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4588 on: August 07, 2020, 02:26:06 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!

« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 02:33:39 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4589 on: August 07, 2020, 02:56:26 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!


Holy guacamole is right! If that does come to pass it would churn the pacific side into oblivion and push a lot of fragile ice into the Laptev and Atlantic areas. I will just pretend I never saw that.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4590 on: August 07, 2020, 03:14:35 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!
Holy guacamole is right! If that does come to pass it would churn the pacific side into oblivion and push a lot of fragile ice into the Laptev and Atlantic areas. I will just pretend I never saw that.
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4591 on: August 07, 2020, 03:52:25 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!



Dont usually look so far out but that GFS forecast was impressive. Similar to 2012, in that the low originally comes from Siberia and then the warm air from Siberia and colder polar air mixes in together and rapidly deepens the low. Whilst no doubt it will be gone from the next run, such a set up cant ever be ruled out in the future.

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4592 on: August 07, 2020, 03:59:46 PM »
The truly amazing thing is SSTs in the Siberian Seas and that will have consequences later on. I don't think I have ever seen them so high. Does anyone have comparisons to previous years? Any links please?

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4593 on: August 07, 2020, 04:49:54 PM »
This.

This is what I was getting at with the comparison post (of ice quality) I was getting at a few days ago.

I think the purple areas are a good preview of what our end of season extent will look like.

Extent will make a run at 2012, but not make it.

Area may quite likely drop below 2012, 16 & 19.

(Edit: I expect volume to drop in the tank, becoming lowest on record).

Yep i am thinking along them lines too.

Area is likely to be 1st, very tight race, the next 3 weeks are going to be very interesting.

I think we still have a chance of a record low Extent, judging from these comparisons from 2012.

It would need to be a record amount of Melt to pass the 2012 extent though, a GAC could be the difference between 1st and 2nd.

2012, Sea Ice Concentration. August the 4th and August 9th.

Comparison on August 6th 2020.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 09:07:57 PM by glennbuck »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4594 on: August 07, 2020, 05:26:43 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!
We already had one miniGAC and it was a disaster on the Pacific side. Another one or even stronger seems likely.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4595 on: August 07, 2020, 06:35:55 PM »
of course the next forecast replaces the <975 mb low with a >1025 high .. but the likelihood of a GAC has not disappeared .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4596 on: August 07, 2020, 07:12:41 PM »
Great comparison post from Wipneus in another thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg279879.html#msg279879

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4597 on: August 07, 2020, 08:14:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4598 on: August 07, 2020, 09:07:54 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4599 on: August 07, 2020, 09:29:03 PM »
of course the next forecast replaces the <975 mb low with a >1025 high .. but the likelihood of a GAC has not disappeared .. b.c.

I just looked at Climate Reanalyzer (which is a GFS forecast I believe) and it has a high towards the end, but there's a large strong LP system (979) entering from Siberia at the very end of the forecast. That's still a day 10 forecast, so unreliable, and hopefully that doesn't happen.