Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 627669 times)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4600 on: August 07, 2020, 09:57:46 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.
We're having our first heatwave of the season here in Belgium after a rather cool month of July. And it's a serious one that'll last for about 10 days, with record temperatures above and around 35°C for 6 of them. This is insane! And I'm curious what the effect will be on the arctic with this complete change of the weather.

Last year we had an unprecedented day above 40°C here, and all that heat went to Greenland back then, which caused a massive melt event there. So I'm curious what effect this complete change of the weather in Europe will do for the Arctic weather.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2831
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1290
  • Likes Given: 258
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4601 on: August 07, 2020, 10:07:08 PM »
6 whoi itp buoys in the Beaufort. Data from 6m depth. click
iirc there was a similar spike last year when a buoy passed the Mclure Strait.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1250
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 579
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4602 on: August 07, 2020, 10:32:13 PM »
An animation of the simple projections so far this melt season.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4603 on: August 07, 2020, 11:54:46 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.
We're having our first heatwave of the season here in Belgium after a rather cool month of July. And it's a serious one that'll last for about 10 days, with record temperatures above and around 35°C for 6 of them. This is insane! And I'm curious what the effect will be on the arctic with this complete change of the weather.

Last year we had an unprecedented day above 40°C here, and all that heat went to Greenland back then, which caused a massive melt event there. So I'm curious what effect this complete change of the weather in Europe will do for the Arctic weather.


Exactly my thoughts as well when I heard about current temps in the Benelux and parts of Germany again at this time of the year.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4604 on: August 07, 2020, 11:58:05 PM »
I'm dying to read one of Ossifrage's awesome posts about the CAA. Is the garlic press open for business?

https://go.nasa.gov/3adAWzq
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 12:09:17 AM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4605 on: August 08, 2020, 12:13:14 AM »
M'Clure Strait breaking up today.

Last clear skies we had over Franz Josef Land in the Arctic Ocean on the 3rd August.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 12:40:00 AM by glennbuck »

Rod

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4606 on: August 08, 2020, 01:53:41 AM »
PSA:

In case anyone missed the great images posted by Wipneus (reply 3424) and Lars Kaleschke (reply 3427) on the Home brew thread, make sure you check them out:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg279879.html#msg279879

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg279969.html#msg279969

Their graphics make it clear that even though extent drops have slowed recently, 2020 still has a good shot of keeping pace with 2012 for the remainder of the melt season.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 02:02:16 AM by Rod »

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1878
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 498
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4607 on: August 08, 2020, 01:58:44 AM »
Uniquorn, ITP 104 has dropped in temperature at both 5 and 6 meters after the brief spike up.
The 29 salinity water that came with the cold spike is more saline than any other current surface reading from the other working ITP buoys or microcats. In general the surface water gets fresher as the melt proceeds so jumps in salinity are interesting.









weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4608 on: August 08, 2020, 03:01:50 AM »
Their graphics make it clear that even though extent drops have slowed recently, 2020 still has a good shot of keeping pace with 2012 for the remainder of the melt season.

No chance

In 2012 it was a foregone conclusion the sea ice in the East Siberian Sea would melt out. In 2020 we will finish the melting season with the most sea ice in the Beaufort Sea for the previous decade. This is not the recipe for a record melt year.

I never understood why posters get excited about lower latitude, easier to melt sea ice, melting out.

Jaxa sea ice extent looks join NSIDC sea ice extent in the third place club for 8.7 (today).

Expect below average sea ice melt to continue.

<Inflammatory strawman removed. O>
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 10:21:45 AM by oren »

Rod

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4609 on: August 08, 2020, 04:07:47 AM »

No chance


That is a bold statement to make when the ice looks like it does, and we still have over month to go in the melting season. 

Quote
I never understood why posters get excited about lower latitude, easier to melt sea ice, melting out. <Deleted this part, a strawman indeed. O>

That is a straw man argument that belittles and mischaracterizes the valuable contributions from the legitimate members of this forum.

As always, thank you for your contributions dude 🤟🏻 Tell your friends at WUWT we said hi 😝. 
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 10:23:41 AM by oren »

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 787
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4610 on: August 08, 2020, 04:19:37 AM »

No chance


That is a bold statement to make when the ice looks like it does, and we still have over month to go in the melting season. 


Considering that the melt required to reach a new record low had occurred just once in the satellite era (2012), I think his statement is not bold at all.  Rather it has a very high likelihood of success.

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 900
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4611 on: August 08, 2020, 05:20:20 AM »
First attachment is current state of Beaufort.  location

Second attachment is an image from the ESS last year, and 2 days earlier to find cloud free conditions. location.  This ice almost completely melted out with some ice still visible on Sep 5 where the arrows at bottom of image are, and then the area became cloud covered again.  ADS/Jaxa suggest further small retreats of the ice to about mid September.

Note that the ice that did melt out last year was all very thin and wispy with no individual floes visible at this scale, whereas current Beaufort ice has many floes plainly visible and is clearly much more robust.  Dramatic melt out of Beaufort is very unlikely in my opinion.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 152
  • Likes Given: 2785
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4612 on: August 08, 2020, 05:49:41 AM »
Tell your friends at WUWT we said hi 😝.

lol yep

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2112
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1015
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4613 on: August 08, 2020, 06:01:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 7th, 2020:
     5,459,062 km2, a drop of -29,992 km2.
     2020 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Why doesn't it feel like third lowest?
Or it does?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 502
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4614 on: August 08, 2020, 06:20:33 AM »
Why doesn't it feel like third lowest?
Or it does?

Yes, the Bremen AMSR2 map you showed looks much worse than yesterday's map.

Worldview Terra also gives a good view of the Beaufort sector ice eaten away all the way to 80 degrees N.

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 900
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4615 on: August 08, 2020, 06:32:43 AM »
I compared this year to 2011 where a major switch from high pressure to low pressure dominated weather seemed to correspond to a dramatic slowdown after that year had been looking a long way of the record year the time, 2007.  We've seen a similar slowdown this year.  Interestingly though 2011 then sped up again later in the year to keep pace just behind 2007 for quite a while before finally losing the race by a narrow margin in the end.  Digging into the speed up point, it was on Aug 2 and ice began to retreat in two areas - Beaufort/Chukchi front, and in Laptev towards the Barents sea (more the bit sticking out rather than the bite).  There was a change in weather pattern somewhat similar to the change we appear to be seeing now with high pressure setting up towards greenland with winds favorable to assist the retreat in these two areas via transport in addition to any melting that was occurring. 

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

  • New ice
  • Posts: 54
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4616 on: August 08, 2020, 06:55:40 AM »
If the end of this season maintains similarities to 2011 such as the ones you mentioned MH, could this possibly imply the potential for next-season preconditioning for a 2012-esque melt season in 2021? I have read multiple times in the past that along with the well-discussed weather patterns, the carryover energy in the Arctic system and overall preconditioning from the bad-but-not-quite-worst 2011 season helped set 2012 up to be the record book year that it ended up becoming. I would especially wonder if the long term exposed sections of open seas, temperature and halocline stratification impacts, and MYI breakup/thinning seen this summer might be considered part of this degradation setup. It will be very interesting to see what the end of this season and next year's progression brings.

This is not to say I expect or predict a 2012-grade melt out next season, more so wondering about the correlation of 2011-like causes and 2012-like effects themselves, not necessarily the degree of impact specifically

ArcTickTock

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 99
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4617 on: August 08, 2020, 07:32:20 AM »
A bit of oldish news and apologies if this has already been posted (I won't have time to catch up on the blog until tomorrow morning). Reuters on the collapse of the Mine Ice Shelf.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/canadas-last-fully-intact-arctic-233003096.html

It is significant of course.  Ice shelf collapse is really the canary in the coal mine to me.  They take millenia to build up but often break up spectacularly quickly.  If the Ross or even more critical RFIS even start to show signs of break up then we know our efforts to limit sea level rise has no hope.  My personal belief is that the lost ice shelves at both poles are lost forever!  The life of the living Earth is not eternal and is 80% or thereabouts in the past with estimates of perhaps a billion years only left until runaway greenhouse evaporates the oceans and kills the planet ( life gets pretty desperate no doubt in the last few 100 million ).  There is no escaping the physics of stellar fusion in which the surface area and thus output of the Sun’s burning hydrogen shell expands ever outward as the core gradually fills with currently non-fusing helium.  The feedback mechanisms that help to maintain a habitable Earth are no doubt straining near their limits already with the suns massive extra 40% or so of output currently vs initial.  Many folks seem to think the Earth can eventually recover from anything but this is simply not true.  Once broken by AGW and the long period it would take for nature to bounce back it is doubtful the Earth will be able to reset.  Earth has quite possibly seen its last ice age.  Once the ice shelves are gone they are likely gone forever.  Once we have BOEs, they will possibly increase in frequency until there is no more arctic sea ice, forever!  We were meant to save the living Earth by using technology to forestall the otherwise inevitable, instead we are hastening the Earths tragic demise just so we can each have convenience, comfort and transitory false wealth.

My apologies, I slipped on a banana, banged my head, knocked out my filtering and got caught up in the really big picture.  Better now, off my soapbox and just following the 2020 melt season.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 07:51:27 AM by ArcTickTock »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4618 on: August 08, 2020, 08:25:11 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4619 on: August 08, 2020, 08:29:54 AM »
overlay of the images of wipneus of Aug-6th. reds - 2012 has more, greens - 2020 has more ice. Been a while I've made one of these so the quality is not very good. Apologies to Red-Green colorblinds, use the hue adjustment to see these

Yellows are probably a toss up between the two years, Consisting of crushed ice, changing every day..
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 08:43:42 AM by Pmt111500 »

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4755
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 510
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4620 on: August 08, 2020, 08:46:42 AM »
Others have pictured the Beaufort Sea, but MODIS bands 7-2-1 clarify clouds versus ice. Plus the Wandel Sea was clear(ish) yesterday as well:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2020/#Aug-08
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4621 on: August 08, 2020, 09:17:47 AM »
Their graphics make it clear that even though extent drops have slowed recently, 2020 still has a good shot of keeping pace with 2012 for the remainder of the melt season.

No chance

In 2012 it was a foregone conclusion the sea ice in the East Siberian Sea would melt out. In 2020 we will finish the melting season with the most sea ice in the Beaufort Sea for the previous decade. This is not the recipe for a record melt year.

I never understood why posters get excited about lower latitude, easier to melt sea ice, melting out.
<Removed in original post. O>

Jaxa sea ice extent looks join NSIDC sea ice extent in the third place club for 8.7 (today).

Expect below average sea ice melt to continue.
Why does someone named weatherdude completely ignore the weather? One big storm and POOF goes the ice...

Please take the september minimum predictions to the appropriate thread.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 10:32:20 AM by oren »
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 677
  • Likes Given: 391
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4622 on: August 08, 2020, 09:26:42 AM »
August 3-7.

2019.

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 231
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4623 on: August 08, 2020, 09:41:27 AM »
Weird melt season. Everything is getting hammered but the extent hangs on tenuiously. Weird too because we could end up in 3rd place but the Bremen graph to have very little pink. Yes if theres a storm a lot will go poof. Surely there will be some big drops soon. Does the JAXA lag a day behind the Bremen? Theres a lot more blue on the Bremen than there was yesterday.

I'm having coffee now and waiting until tomorrow

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4624 on: August 08, 2020, 09:56:04 AM »

Why doesn't it feel like third lowest?
Or it does?

I am surprised a large section of the Arctic Ocean below the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea, went from purple yesterday to green today! A few more days and century drops could happen.

We will see the Concentration from the Arctic Ocean from Svalbard to Severnaya Zemlya turning yellow and green in the next few days, moving in towards the North Pole.

Worldview, East of the Arctic Ocean today.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 04:33:46 PM by glennbuck »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4625 on: August 08, 2020, 10:26:16 AM »
Weird melt season. Everything is getting hammered but the extent hangs on tenuiously. Weird too because we could end up in 3rd place but the Bremen graph to have very little pink. Yes if theres a storm a lot will go poof. Surely there will be some big drops soon. Does the JAXA lag a day behind the Bremen? Theres a lot more blue on the Bremen than there was yesterday.

I'm having coffee now and waiting until tomorrow
It surely is. I would have thought that the CAB would have melted out a lot more by now with all that insolation we got in July. And that reminds me of the discussion I had with Binntho earlier on in the season. He said to not underestimate the energy that low pressure systems bring to the ice, and I'm starting to think that he was right, that wind and rain and dispersion is a lot worse for the ice than insolation from high pressure systems. (I hope I got that right Binntho). It seems now that my brainfart wasn't all that smelly, that because of the compaction of the ice, that a lot of that insolation was reflected back into space.

When the ice is more dispersed, you have a lot more open water in between the ice that can soak up the heat and melt the ice all over the place.

Thoughts?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6426
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2389
  • Likes Given: 2043
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4626 on: August 08, 2020, 10:43:23 AM »
Insolation is much worse overall, especially with histroically low albedo and around the solstice. But storms are worse for thin ice about to melt out, and hasten its visible demise, thus make for good headlines
The CAB didn't show much effect because the ice was still thick, and because new ice was imported to replace the thinner ice that did melt out.
In general the events of the last few weeks prove again why volume and area matter more than extent, which is simply the rearrangement of ice. Back in July the 1 million advantage in extent was worth less than appeared at the time, and now the thin wispy ice spread across large parts of the Chukchi and Beaufort and elsewhere is worth much less than extent would have us believe. Extent really matters only in September, when ice rearrangement can lead to new extent records given the right area data.

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2831
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1290
  • Likes Given: 258
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4627 on: August 08, 2020, 10:46:47 AM »
Uniquorn, ITP 104 has dropped in temperature at both 5 and 6 meters after the brief spike up.
The 29 salinity water that came with the cold spike is more saline than any other current surface reading from the other working ITP buoys or microcats. In general the surface water gets fresher as the melt proceeds so jumps in salinity are interesting.
ftp doesn't seem to be working at whoi at the moment so am unable to get profile data, but I think the buoy is crossing a deeper current that is forced closer to the surface when heading towards mclure.

@Freegrass: I agree with Oren: likely a combination of both high insolation in July(bad) then the lows to whip it all up(also bad).

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4628 on: August 08, 2020, 11:08:52 AM »
Again the actual poof event in a slightly higher resolution (I must admit that on the multicolored Bremen graph it looks even more devastating):
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1250
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 579
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4629 on: August 08, 2020, 11:16:57 AM »
First week of August, 2012 vs 2020
(Higher-res version on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1292026425348886529)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4630 on: August 08, 2020, 11:31:32 AM »
Uniquorn, ITP 104 has dropped in temperature at both 5 and 6 meters after the brief spike up.
The 29 salinity water that came with the cold spike is more saline than any other current surface reading from the other working ITP buoys or microcats. In general the surface water gets fresher as the melt proceeds so jumps in salinity are interesting.
@Freegrass: I agree with Oren: likely a combination of both high insolation in July(bad) then the lows to whip it all up(also bad).
I agree as well, it's only logical. But I'm surprised by the amount of ice that's still left in the CAB.

It's probably a little bit of impatience from my side and getting carried away by those who claim we'll end up in third place. Consider it another brainfart...  :-[
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 677
  • Likes Given: 391
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4631 on: August 08, 2020, 11:32:10 AM »
Aggressive WAAs in May/June to reduce albedo, persistent anticyclones in July to input energy, powerful cyclones in August to melt remnants. Is it a perfect melting season? In any case, this year successfully completed 2/3 and the ice looks exhausted.

wallen

  • New ice
  • Posts: 78
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4632 on: August 08, 2020, 11:52:49 AM »
Surprised no-one has mentioned the resolute nature of the ice on the southern side of Severnaya Zemlya. Also a close look on the ice caps there, the layered nature of them would seem to indicate how badly they have been impacted this season. Have had to go back to 2011, to find something similar, though hard to see through the cloud.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 765
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4633 on: August 08, 2020, 11:58:21 AM »
Number 2 is. still possible, if the weather changes wrt forecasts radically with something more dramatic for the second half of August. The EC forecast is pretty benign at the time.

Number 4 or above is also possible if nothing accelerates Beaufort and Chukchi meltout. That dispersed ice usually doesn’t  stay forever as warmer water from Bering partially mixes and melts a lot of ice before sinking. But this year SSTs there are not as red as most of previous years.

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4634 on: August 08, 2020, 12:39:58 PM »
Surprised no-one has mentioned the resolute nature of the ice on the southern side of Severnaya Zemlya. Also a close look on the ice caps there, the layered nature of them would seem to indicate how badly they have been impacted this season. Have had to go back to 2011, to find something similar, though hard to see through the cloud.

Although small, the resilience of the ice suggests its been compacted heavily against the landmass. Its just ashame the rest of the ice on the Siberian side has not been all that well compacted against the landmass therefore harder to melt away.

We are at the time of year where the ice pack in the basin can change quite significantly, the ice looks fairly weak it must be said. Atlantification is going to be extreme this year and there will be no ice in the ESS and Laptev seas this year. I really can't see how we are going to finish above 4 million but I would never use the words 'no chance' as your setting up for egg on your face really.

The ice inn the Chukchi looks close to melting out now, very patchy and we are seeing patchy extent developing along the Laptev. You do feel larger extent drops are due.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4635 on: August 08, 2020, 12:51:32 PM »
Again the actual poof event in a slightly higher resolution (I must admit that on the multicolored Bremen graph it looks even more devastating):
Looks like a goodly amount of ice just above the threshold to count as extent. I am looking for a few multi-century drops very soon.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

colchonero

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4636 on: August 08, 2020, 12:54:46 PM »
Again the actual poof event in a slightly higher resolution (I must admit that on the multicolored Bremen graph it looks even more devastating):
Looks like a goodly amount of ice just above the threshold to counter as extent. I am looking for a few multi-century drops very soon.

Few multi-century drops?? That's at least 2x 200K + drops. I don't see that happening, mid August.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4637 on: August 08, 2020, 01:05:02 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7758
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1134
  • Likes Given: 526
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4638 on: August 08, 2020, 01:23:10 PM »
Few multi-century drops?? That's at least 2x 200K + drops. I don't see that happening, mid August.

August 2016, so easily forgotten...  ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 208
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4639 on: August 08, 2020, 01:26:35 PM »
Again the actual poof event in a slightly higher resolution (I must admit that on the multicolored Bremen graph it looks even more devastating):
I understand why extent isn’t collapsing but I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why area isn’t dropping like a stone.  Makes no sense looking at Bremen and worldview.
This space for Rent.

Burnrate

  • New ice
  • Posts: 89
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4640 on: August 08, 2020, 02:51:09 PM »
I'm no expert but it seems regardless of whether or not 2020 is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd it will be the year that is known for setting up the arctic to go poof.  Even if the Beaufort somehow hangs on it is only because of the massive export to it throughout the season.  It does look like it will go though.

The crack (which spurred me to finally sign up for an account here in 2015) has gotten bigger than ever and the bastion of MYI (CAA) is becoming open water and rubble almost to the pole.  Some previous years like 2015 show similar massive damage North of Greenland but 2020 seems more comprehensive.

It reminds me of 2007 in the way that caused such lasting damage.  I don't know where to find weather from 2007 but it did have some big losses in late August and early September.  It would be interesting to compare the 2007 weather with this years.

Just my thoughts.

marcel_g

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 379
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4641 on: August 08, 2020, 03:07:45 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

Wow, look at all the wind pushing the Ice out from the center of the CAB towards Laptev. Extent will probably increase there, but i would expect ice will melt more and area should drop more. At the same time there’s yet another large wind push from Svalbard in towards the Pole, which should reduce extent there, but I have no idea what it’ll do in terms of melting. That whole patch north of Greenland is baffling.

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4642 on: August 08, 2020, 03:11:02 PM »
The weather models seem to want to set up another bit of strong flow from the Atlantic through the pole to central Siberia in the five day period.  What this will do to the ice measures I couldn't say, but in general it seems that wind starts to dominate sun at some point in August as a ice volume reducer.

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4643 on: August 08, 2020, 03:59:28 PM »
Again the actual poof event in a slightly higher resolution (I must admit that on the multicolored Bremen graph it looks even more devastating):
I understand why extent isn’t collapsing but I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why area isn’t dropping like a stone.  Makes no sense looking at Bremen and worldview.
Tresholds?
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 765
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4644 on: August 08, 2020, 04:08:38 PM »
We need a good cyclone. It’s fun!

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4645 on: August 08, 2020, 04:18:02 PM »
I'm no expert but it seems regardless of whether or not 2020 is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd it will be the year that is known for setting up the arctic to go poof.  Even if the Beaufort somehow hangs on it is only because of the massive export to it throughout the season.  It does look like it will go though.

That is just not true at all. 2019 did see export hence you saw a rapid early retreat followed by ice coming in from the CAB. this year the ice has been very slow to melt due to cooler conditions and a lack of a Beaufort high to get the Beaufort Gyre going.

How much will survive is uncertain, I suspect there will be an arm of ice there come September, how wide and extensive that will be probably depends on the weather.

I can't see drops of 200k occurring, not with the current weather set ups but I'll be surprise if we don't see some above averahe drops soon.

ajouis

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4646 on: August 08, 2020, 04:23:03 PM »
a Bremen graph that I do not see often and that they don’t seem to publish often
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4647 on: August 08, 2020, 05:07:37 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

Wow, look at all the wind pushing the Ice out from the center of the CAB towards Laptev. Extent will probably increase there, but i would expect ice will melt more and area should drop more. At the same time there’s yet another large wind push from Svalbard in towards the Pole, which should reduce extent there, but I have no idea what it’ll do in terms of melting. That whole patch north of Greenland is baffling.
The secret sauce will come straight from Europe. And I guess that answers my question from yesterday, what effect the European heatwave we're experiencing right now will have on the arctic.

And so here is the next question; How much open water will we see between Greenland and the pole next week?

Edit: The 1000 hPa (which I finally found a use for) is even better than the 850. It's like a bomb is about to go off in the arctic.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 05:24:54 PM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

romett1

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4648 on: August 08, 2020, 07:46:19 PM »

And so here is the next question; How much open water will we see between Greenland and the pole next week?

10m GFS wind gust forecast between Mon and Fri next week - area between Greenland and North Pole is going to be really interesting.

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4649 on: August 08, 2020, 07:56:46 PM »

And so here is the next question; How much open water will we see between Greenland and the pole next week?

10m GFS wind gust forecast between Mon and Fri next week - area between Greenland and North Pole is going to be really interesting.
Please do not try to sail to north pole on Monday to Wednesday next week, winds might be favorable but the going might be a bit rough due ice . Please wait for more favorable condition due in couple of years.