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JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4700 on: August 10, 2020, 12:09:00 AM »
The movement of ice into the CAA from the CAB. Garlic press seeing a little action over the last few days between Borden & Ellef Ringnes Islands. I apologise I have not learnt how to overlay for a video sequence as yet...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4701 on: August 10, 2020, 12:16:14 AM »
polarview S1, north chukchi, aug9.
further north looks no better till 80N
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 12:36:57 AM by uniquorn »

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4702 on: August 10, 2020, 12:54:44 AM »
There is a low stirring up that ice in the Beaufort today. It might not be very strong, but you can see the effects of the winds on the clouds on worldview.

The high over the CAB is also letting a lot of sunshine onto the ice today.

Paladiea

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4703 on: August 10, 2020, 01:10:38 AM »
With that century drop today, it looks like we're done with the ice pack expansion curtailing extent drops. I think the next few days are going to be a wild ride indeed.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4704 on: August 10, 2020, 03:33:31 AM »
In my eyes, the forecasts are slowly but surely changing to a more high pressure outlook. The main emphasis of high pressure being around the pole. I'm assuming as we head towards mid August the sun is still strong enough but does weaken with each day. What would help the ice is if we have any chilly air under this high and of course these days, we don't really.

Still interested in those very strong reverse winds through Fram, see how that affects the more diffused ice from Greenland. I believe there is a current running from near the pole and down through fram hence alot of ice dissapears especially during winter time. I don't think I've ever seen a period where winds are forecast to blow in from the south so constantly between Greenland and Svalbard. It should be a good thing for the ice but is it this year? Double edged sword it could be.


Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4705 on: August 10, 2020, 03:42:29 AM »
Paul, as always, I thank you for your outlook.

You and many others on here are very talented meteorologists. Your forecasts are always welcome.

However, we have learned through many years of watching that anything past three days is a coin toss.

That is why I posted the weather for today.  And the satellite for today.

I think going forward we should pay more attention to what is happening now, and stop trying to be Nostradamus about what will happen with a forecast that is impossible to accurately predict.

I’m not saying I don’t appreciate seeing what you guys think will happen next week, but let’s get realistic about the probability of what will actually occur. Anything over three days out has very little reliability.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4706 on: August 10, 2020, 03:53:14 AM »
Thanks so much for posting your views, A-team. Refreshing to read.

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4707 on: August 10, 2020, 04:23:46 AM »
Another view from today.

Beaufort getting beat up by a low and the CAB getting baked in sunshine.

Who knows what happens with extent. It is a sloppy measurement. It might be the best we have, but it is not very accurate when it comes to identifying the actual amount of ice in the Arctic.

Right now the ice is continuing to get killed!

This will have lasting ramifications beyond this melt year.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 04:29:02 AM by Rod »

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4708 on: August 10, 2020, 06:36:43 AM »
Welcome back A-team. Nice to finally meet you. That was an impressive post where this part stood out to me.

Quote
The main CAB ice pack, being no longer attached to coastal land or ocean bottom, might be set adrift to elsewhere by persistent winds from the south. We’ve not yet seen that game-changer.

I have always wondered if that could actually happen. If it ever did happen, that would definitely be a game changer.

Thank you for this enlightening piece of work!

Absolutely, you have been sorely missed A-Team!

The above point is something I have been thinking (and commenting) about for some years now. It seems to me that as the summer extent gets less, melt will speed up towards the end if and when the whole pack becomes mobile and can drift away from the pole.

We are now at just over 5 MKm2, my guess is that if we ever enter August with say 3M then the ice will simply be blown all over the place and melt very rapidly. A quick and dirty eyeballing indicates that this could happen in 15 years on current trends. i.e. sometime in the mid thirties, the average year will see 3Mkm2 at the beginning of August. It's difficult to see how we a BOE can be avoided by that time!
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4709 on: August 10, 2020, 07:27:38 AM »
August 5-9.

2019.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4710 on: August 10, 2020, 07:31:07 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4711 on: August 10, 2020, 07:37:19 AM »
August 5-9.

2019.

Melting and retreat can be seen everywhere - but it is the Fram strait and the north of Greenland that is seeing the most amazing development, and given the predicted southerlies into the Fram over the next few days this is surely the place to watch!

Two things seem to be imminent: An ice-free Fram strait, with the N-E Greenland polynia connecting to open ocean; and  the tendril of ice free waters north of Greenland could reach 90N - I guess that would be a record, the first time in modern history that it would be possible to sail to 90N 85N without encountering ice?

EDIT: Major error, should of course have been 85N.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 09:58:41 AM by binntho »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4712 on: August 10, 2020, 09:45:11 AM »
August 5-9.

2019.

Melting and retreat can be seen everywhere - but it is the Fram strait and the north of Greenland that is seeing the most amazing development, and given the predicted southerlies into the Fram over the next few days this is surely the place to watch!

Two things seem to be imminent: An ice-free Fram strait, with the N-E Greenland polynia connecting to open ocean; and  the tendril of ice free waters north of Greenland could reach 90N - I guess that would be a record, the first time in modern history that it would be possible to sail to 90N without encountering ice?
When I look at the forecast I can see wind blowing from east to west north of Greenland, most likely closing the gap in the ice that opened up there. At the same time the high will probably start compacting the ice again which will open up the mega crack some more, creating a large expanse of open water north of Greenland. But I don't think we'll see open water all the way to the pole. That gap will close I think.

Soon after that - if the forecast holds - a low that's been growing with every forecast over the Kara sea will come in to push the ice towards fram again. But that's five days out, so we'll have to wait to see how that develops. Will it turn into a strong dipole that rips the ice apart? Time will tell...

Any way you look at it, it's gonna get windy. That means a lot of ice will be on the move at the time when bottom melt is at its strongest. It'll be another interesting week for sure, also in the CAA!
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4713 on: August 10, 2020, 10:00:08 AM »
But I don't think we'll see open water all the way to the pole.
Neither do I. Lack of coffee, it should of course have been the 85N line that I was wondering if could be reached this time.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4714 on: August 10, 2020, 10:19:25 AM »
As forecasted, the low over the southern CAA and Beaufort is not an event at the scale of the whole bassin, but for Beaufort sea, it is bad. This low was accurately predicted since the end of last week, as it is for now as bad as forecasted then. I did not check all the values but the station of Aulvik reached 31 knots for example : http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71974&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2020&mes=08&day=10&hora=06
At Sachs Harbour also it was quite an event : 992.9 hPa at minimum and 25.3 millimeters of rain in 24 hours.
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71467&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2020&mes=08&day=10&hora=06
One thing is sure, ice in the Beaufort sea is in the washing machine for now, while there is ~ 1 million squared kilometers of weak ice there.

And the ridge over Arctic is linked to strong convection over the western Pacific, with the MJO in phase 3 - 4. For now, there is now surprise to the trend toward higher values. This said, uncertainty increased after mid-august as a new wave packet should propagate, with higher values coming from the south by the Pacific. What will happen then is not clear. GFS is leaning toward building a new ridge, while IFS is skipping into lower values.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4715 on: August 10, 2020, 10:24:48 AM »
Close up of the Beaufort/Chukchi region over the last few days
(larger version on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1292737677608050691)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4716 on: August 10, 2020, 10:51:06 AM »
But I don't think we'll see open water all the way to the pole.
Neither do I. Lack of coffee, it should of course have been the 85N line that I was wondering if could be reached this time.
A few day ago that high was forecasted to be more towards the barents sea. This created a wind field that could have ripped the ice open all the way to the pole. But now that incoming low has pushed it more north, changing that incoming European heat to blow more along the Greenland coast.

If this trend continues, that low could push that high even more towards Siberia, and so I think the forecast could look a lot different a few days from now. I'm actually quite sure of it...

Right now we keep our eyes indeed on the Beaufort as Aslan said. But I don't expect too much damage there, as the ice is thick, and the wind not that strong. The wind forecast I'll post in a few hours from now will give more clarity about that.

Tomorrow we watch as the mega crack starts opening up again.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4717 on: August 10, 2020, 11:35:15 AM »
Below is the change in concentration from the 8th to the 9th of August. The second is the absolute change, where sea ice was lost or gained for the same dates.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4718 on: August 10, 2020, 12:12:15 PM »
The movement of ice into the CAA from the CAB. Garlic press seeing a little action over the last few days between Borden & Ellef Ringnes Islands.
amsr2-uhh, caa, aug1-9

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4719 on: August 10, 2020, 12:14:43 PM »
At Sachs Harbour also it was quite an event : 992.9 hPa at minimum and 25.3 millimeters of rain in 24 hours.

The low achieved a minimum MSLP of 990 hPa out at sea according to CMC:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4720 on: August 10, 2020, 12:30:28 PM »
Below is the change in concentration from the 8th to the 9th of August. The second is the absolute change, where sea ice was lost or gained for the same dates.

Don't know what magic you are conjuring to make these but they are really interesting, great stuff
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4721 on: August 10, 2020, 02:00:17 PM »
-3- The whole icepack does not rotate CW with the TPD but rather participation is demarcated by immense  curvilinear leads, newly visualized in a dockside posting by L Kaleschke and enhanced on the Mosaic forum by directional convolution. These fracture lines, coincidentally or causally, approximately delimit the puzzling openings to the pole above Morris Jesup. A lot of MYI ice between Greenland and the pole was fractured by lead formation.
The first animation of Kaleschke SIC-LEADS overlaid onto gmrt bathymetry in February when the ice was much thicker shows the location of those fracture lines. Accepted that drift will be different now that Lincoln Sea is not land fast.
The underlying ocean currents will still be there but the recent prevailing winds are preventing southerly drift so the ice north of Greenland is melting in situ and beginning to show the turbulent ocean beneath. The continuous rotation during July and the abrupt halt could also have contributed to the lower concentration in that area.
The second animation shows the rotation and some of the underlying turbulence. Rammb might do a better job over a shorter timescale

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4722 on: August 10, 2020, 02:40:49 PM »
Last 24H and Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

I added the last 24 hours to correct my mistake from before that the beaufort won't have too much damage inflicted on it. It sure looks like it was pretty windy there for a while.

I'm also wondering now if I wasn't wrong about the gap north of Greenland opening up more. Maybe until the pole? Wouldn't this crosswind open up that gap more instead of closing it? It would be good if BFTV could make an overlay with the ice to this. Would that be possible?

There's an error again on Nullschool that wouldn't go away.  >:(
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4723 on: August 10, 2020, 03:20:10 PM »
Last week in data. Sorry for the delay. Click to play.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4724 on: August 10, 2020, 04:00:05 PM »
I have just received the following missive from the NSIDC:

Quote
The 2019 data for the Near-Real-Time NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 1 data set, accessible through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) have been removed....

If you have 2019 NRT CDR data, we suggest that you download and replace it with the 2019 final processed version of this data set which can be accessed from the data set web page at the NSIDC: https://nsidc.org/data/g02202/
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4725 on: August 10, 2020, 05:52:30 PM »

I added the last 24 hours to correct my mistake from before that the beaufort won't have too much damage inflicted on it. It sure looks like it was pretty windy there for a while.

I'm also wondering now if I wasn't wrong about the gap north of Greenland opening up more. Maybe until the pole? Wouldn't this crosswind open up that gap more instead of closing it? It would be good if BFTV could make an overlay with the ice to this. Would that be possible?

There's an error again on Nullschool that wouldn't go away.  >:(

Should be able to manage it. Will hopefully have it figured out soon!
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4726 on: August 10, 2020, 07:34:22 PM »

I added the last 24 hours to correct my mistake from before that the beaufort won't have too much damage inflicted on it. It sure looks like it was pretty windy there for a while.

I'm also wondering now if I wasn't wrong about the gap north of Greenland opening up more. Maybe until the pole? Wouldn't this crosswind open up that gap more instead of closing it? It would be good if BFTV could make an overlay with the ice to this. Would that be possible?

There's an error again on Nullschool that wouldn't go away.  >:(

Should be able to manage it. Will hopefully have it figured out soon!
Right on!  :)
That would be awesome!  ;D
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4727 on: August 10, 2020, 08:04:14 PM »
The calm before the storm.

In ten days it looks like most of the Beaufort Sea ice will be gone along with the Greenland Sea ice off the coast and the remainder of the North passage, leaving just the CAB at around 2,800,000  km^2 area, data from the 9th August. Will be interesting to see how far in from the North Greenland crack the ice will melt back toward the North Pole, as mentioned by Binntho earlier.

Sea surface temperatures of 8 C coming in from the Greenland Sea and warm winds will have an effect.

Parts of the CAB winds meanwhile push ice out into Beaufort warmer seas.

The Laptev Sea and Kara Sea will take parts of the CAB ice in the next 3 days, with the wind directions forecast, there warmer water temperatures around 5 C - 10 C.

Winds change direction 14th August pushing Cab ice out into the warm waters in the Greenland Sea/Kera Sea and the North Passage winds change direction swallowing some of what remains in the Beaufort Sea.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 03:49:51 PM by glennbuck »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4728 on: August 10, 2020, 08:35:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
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Milwen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4729 on: August 10, 2020, 08:50:56 PM »
Atlantic side could be finished up by heat. Remaining slush would be flushed down by Fram export during weekend. :o

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4730 on: August 10, 2020, 09:05:14 PM »
cloudy  north of greenland, so another polarview S1

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4731 on: August 10, 2020, 10:20:26 PM »
Right on!  :)
That would be awesome!  ;D

I will need to use a different colour map to help the concentration data to stand out a bit more, and a few other adjustments to improve things. But here's a start at least.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

A-Team

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4732 on: August 10, 2020, 10:24:45 PM »
If I were to short-list the best tools for a quick daily state-of-the-ice in August, it would consist of AMSR2 concentration, OsiSaf 2day drift, WorldView vis and viirs, Nullschool-gfs and Hycom thickness. All but OsiSaf have seen major upgrades this year. The latter two make modest forecasts.

Rammb, the buoys and 10 km Polarstern bow radar are the big three informational innovations this year, though situational. Sentinel-1AB radar has been a disappointment: it has ok resolution, a good portal and a cloud-free view but that coverage is episodic and incomplete with uneven contrast, showing few features of the ice for the resolution.

Hycom goes out six days and so incorporates anticipated effects of its internal weather forecast on the ice, along with bottom, top, lateral melt and ice pack displacement. However the Hycom animation is offered at exceedingly poor resolution (230 x 200 pixels for the Arctic Ocean proper) oriented along the prime meridian (the rest of the world having settled on Greenland-down to facilitate visual comparison).

Hycom continues to see a retreat and contraction of the core CAB to the west though no overall drama. The unusual palette has a blackish break between the green for thick ice and blue for intermediate. This is a navy 'operational' product so that transition may be a cut-off for icebreakers.

It seems that recent near-zero ice thickness is represented as whitish rather than open water gray. It's not clear slush is something we want to be tracking; perhaps from the navy's perspective it is at special risk for re-freezing or still has isolated floes. It can be removed to whatever level with a single click on the intermediate tile-up. 

This product lacks sufficient resolution to provide updates on the unprecedented Ellesmere to north pole opening. For that, AMSR2, WorldView, RAMMB or Sentinel-1AB are better.

The slide show has the corrected Hycom thickness of Aug 10th (and its posterized palette) over the 5-day cloud-removal AMSR2, showing the expected.

The Hycom thickness forecast updates every day and so needs a regular reprocessing, as it's not easy to automate. To empower more people per a suggestion of Oren, our moderator extraordinaire, the steps for doing this in Gimp are provided below. Degree of difficulty 2 in 5, ten minutes with practice.

Steps to extract the 7day forecast, enlarge(433.2%) and rotate (45º cw) it to match scale and Greenland-down orientation of AMSR2 uhh, clean up distracting datestamp and excessive palette:

download, open, change to RGB, unoptimize gif (to remove transparencies)
delete early days leaving top 7 frames (mark earliest frame, hold command-x down below it)
duplicate stack, make reusable palette in new window, deleting >3.0 m (not used) to 45x352
duplicate stack file, crop out month and day, adjust width to match palette (45)
crop stack to 631x631 data circle
rotate 45º cw about center
change from indexed to RGB
crop to region of current interest
enlarge 433.2% to match AMSR2uhh (or new AWI as that size finalizes)
enlarge canvas on palette and date to match new width.
tile thickness, palette and date, adjust view, make new layer from visible
move to imageJ and de-tile to make avi/mp4 or gif

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/
http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?year=2020&month=08&day=05&action=Today&prod=LR-Drift&area=NH&size=100%25
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-57.56,85.91,1296
https://go.nasa.gov/30HqqNF
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 11:48:36 PM by A-Team »

icy voyeur2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4733 on: August 10, 2020, 10:36:23 PM »
RIP the remaining Milne Ice Shelf

(my error on the map, 2 degrees W, sorry)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 11:47:27 AM by icy voyeur2 »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4734 on: August 10, 2020, 10:37:35 PM »
Right on!  :)
That would be awesome!  ;D

I will need to use a different colour map to help the concentration data to stand out a bit more, and a few other adjustments to improve things. But here's a start at least.
That is amazing! Thanks you so much for that!  :D
So what do you think? Will that gap north of Greenland open up more with this forecast? I think it will...

Time to trade in my Nares canoe for a Greenland-to pole sailing boat Kassy?  ::)

If I can help you make this easier for you, send me a PM!
We need to figure out how to do this right.
Are you using GIMP as well?
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4735 on: August 10, 2020, 10:59:24 PM »
From 80° N′ 150° W,  we have seen ice like this fast melt out this season.

The Laptev Sea washing machine effect and near Ushacov island silky strands moving inwards in the Arctic Ocean.

Wandel Sea, 10th August, with incoming winds from Greenland Sea for 3 days pushing towards Beaufort Sea this will effect here, the Lincoln Sea area and the North Greenland crack.

There is not much Coastal land left that the CAB is attached to.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 01:43:41 PM by glennbuck »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4736 on: August 10, 2020, 11:01:16 PM »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4737 on: August 10, 2020, 11:31:33 PM »
RIP the remaining Milne Ice Shelf
:'(

That's for sure? Isn't this Milne Ice Shelf on the right?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4738 on: August 10, 2020, 11:50:39 PM »
RIP the remaining Milne Ice Shelf
:'(

That's for sure? Isn't this Milne Ice Shelf on the right?
It's not easy to locate the Milne Ice Shelf with Google. I looked for it a few days ago after someone said it had collapsed, and I may have messed that up...

So if someone said it collapsed a few days ago, how can it collapse again today?  :-\

What was the shelf I just posted a GIF from?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4739 on: August 10, 2020, 11:55:54 PM »
Version 2. Getting there...
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4740 on: August 11, 2020, 12:00:27 AM »
A. I think only half of Milne Ice Shelf collapsed.
B. Best discussed on the Milne thread or Ellesmere ice shelves thread.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4741 on: August 11, 2020, 12:24:54 AM »
The EC forecast getting more interesting, with weak lows eroding Chukchi and Beaufort sea, anticyclone dominating the central Arctic, and strong winds crushing Laptev from day 5 (below)  with storm dominating Kara eventually. If the Laptev winds are persistent, we are going to see that front receding to north of 85N easily.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4742 on: August 11, 2020, 12:39:16 AM »
With most of the chukchi under cloud, here are images from worldview and polarview

Tigertown

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4743 on: August 11, 2020, 11:13:04 AM »
Just to note: the forum has been offline for hours. Good to see it back up. There seems to be about a nine hour gap between the two newest post before this one.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4744 on: August 11, 2020, 11:29:43 AM »
Here are a couple of longer-term animations looking at the Lincoln Sea and the region north of Ellesmere, contrasting with the more northerly ice in the CAB.
The first animation tracks a specific floe since initial breakup at the edge of Lincoln. The floe has since been moving westward for 50 days, a rare behavior, until it breaks up in two following a hard bump against the Ellesmere coast. Towards the end of the animation it can be seen that the ice to the north and east appears gray and much lower quality that the ice near Ellesmere.

The second animation looks at the Lincoln Sea during spring and summer. It appears the region of the thickest ice - that was compacted and probably strengthened during winter - is delineated in red. In fitting with the movement of the specific floe from the first animation, it appears the thickest ice from the Lincoln Sea is now spread in a strip from Greenland to the north of Ellesmere. I would hazard a guess that the gray ice above that strip is much more vulnerable to melting out in the next month, though if it actually does so is anyone's guess.

If I am not mistaken, this gray ice originates from ice that entered the region during March, following massive export to the Fram as shown on previous Ascat animations. In April and May it was broken up and moved around, and since June it has been spreading west.

Click to animate both gifs.

Ascat animation showing Fram export from the west, available thanks to uniquorn in https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg269957.html#msg269957

jjj18641

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4745 on: August 11, 2020, 01:36:56 PM »
Is it significant to see this much open water only 114 miles from 90N at this point in the season?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4746 on: August 11, 2020, 01:47:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4747 on: August 11, 2020, 01:54:24 PM »
Is it significant to see this much open water only 114 miles from 90N at this point in the season?

Not really.

However IMHO ever increasing areas of low concentration all the way from there to Greenland is highly significant.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4748 on: August 11, 2020, 02:13:49 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 10th,  3,388,223 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of 54,189 km^2

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960

« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 03:31:31 PM by glennbuck »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4749 on: August 11, 2020, 03:08:18 PM »
Is it significant to see this much open water only 114 miles from 90N at this point in the season?

See image I posted at #4480

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg279385.html#msg279385

Or alternatively look back on Worldview at the last month of the 2016 (Aug 15 to Sept 15) melt season and you'll see lots of holes near the pole. Not good.