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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4750 on: August 11, 2020, 04:13:47 PM »
Here's the animation from Freegrass, in combo with sea ice concentration
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4751 on: August 11, 2020, 04:14:34 PM »
Polynyas opening up halfway between the pole and Laptev.
We haven't seen those much this season.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4752 on: August 11, 2020, 04:21:10 PM »
Here's the animation from Freegrass, in combo with sea ice concentration
That's looking really good. Thank you! :)

That storm in Chukchi is going straight to the weakest patch of ice. But still far out. So that could change significantly.

Also wondering if the little patch of ice in Kara will survive those strong winds.

Great job BFTV!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4753 on: August 11, 2020, 06:56:33 PM »
Following a heads up from a certain Mr. Watts I bring you news of an interesting new article in Nature Climate Change:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/past-evidence-supports-complete-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-by-2035/

Allegedly:

Quote
Using the [UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate] model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt.  A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.
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marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4754 on: August 11, 2020, 07:30:57 PM »
Here's the animation from Freegrass, in combo with sea ice concentration
That's looking really good. Thank you! :)

That storm in Chukchi is going straight to the weakest patch of ice. But still far out. So that could change significantly.

Also wondering if the little patch of ice in Kara will survive those strong winds.

Great job BFTV!
Yes, thanks BFTV. And yes, we might see a lot of ice going poof over there.

Also, there is a large consistent wind field going from Svalbard over the central pack and then out over Laptev, but then after a couple of days that reverses completely and goes the opposite way. So that low concentration patch north of Greenland is first going to get warm air and wind and pushed in, and then get pushed back out towards the Fram. The Laptev side is going to get dispersed into warmer water, and then pushed back into the central pack. It'll be very interesting what happens to concentration and ice edges in both those areas.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4755 on: August 11, 2020, 07:39:24 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4756 on: August 11, 2020, 09:17:08 PM »
EC 12z run has an interesting dipole during D7-D10 starting at D6. A really bad set up for the sea ice if it lingers for a while. Adding to that, WAA from Siberia in tandem with a possible deep Kara low will take the Laptev bite closer to the pole. In addition, not to forget, the Laptev Sea is very warm.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4757 on: August 11, 2020, 09:44:49 PM »
The 12Z EURO IS WILD!!

BEST LOOKING DA of the summer.


But time is running out.

2020 looking good for:

2nd lowest extent
2nd lowest area
Lowest Sea ice volume




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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4758 on: August 11, 2020, 09:48:04 PM »
EC 12z run has an interesting dipole during D7-D10 starting at D6. A really bad set up for the sea ice if it lingers for a while. Adding to that, WAA from Siberia in tandem with a possible deep Kara low will take the Laptev bite closer to the pole. In addition, not to forget, the Laptev Sea is very warm.

Not to forget to mention the run isn't good for the ice before the big DPA develops!!

I got a nickname for all my guns
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4759 on: August 11, 2020, 10:50:02 PM »
100 km/h winds off Greenland on 13th Aug.

A-Team

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4760 on: August 11, 2020, 11:22:11 PM »
Quote
Neven: things have been real slow since that late July cyclone
Right. That memorable event was worth a separate forum of its own but didn’t get one. Some favorite resources are transient so have to be captured on the spot: WorldView can over-write a great swath with a cloudy one the same day; Rammb is only served for 20 days; PolarView offers Sentinel-1AB for just a month.

Instead there was a lot of nonsense posted about ‘compaction’ (in-house definition) even though OsiSaf showed decisively no net compressive inward ice motion ever occurred. OsiSaf arrows show observed gridded ice motion but exaggerated 6x in daily displacement: 3x for visibility x 48 hr interval. Ice motion tracked wind motion closely.

Centrifugal rotational forces and pack inertial forces evidently offset a weak coriolis (real slow ice velocity x sine of high latitude). The wind can only push against rough surfaces, pressure ridges and exposed freeboard. Mosaic measured ice pressure, not compaction, with sensors welded along the Polarstern's hull.

The last ten days of slow change can be visualized in a couple of ways. It takes high resolution to do this accurately because big square pixels don’t fit well over two curved ice edges being differenced — new open water (and lowering concentration) appear almost exclusively on the ice pack periphery. One dodgy extent pixel at 35x35 km holds 125 smaller AMSR2 pixels of 3.1 x 3.1 km.

Oren suggested a while back it would be helpful to have an operational description of how Venn diagrams from image pairs are made. Fortunately all manner of boolean logic operations are baked right into Gimp’s color picker. The first image below shows new open water (orange) in the August 10th AMSR2 uhh LARGE relative to areas filled with ice on August 1st. (Very little open water on the 1st was not open on the 10th, not shown).

Although the polar stereographic projection used in the archive is not equal area, it is very close to that about the 75º parallel, meaning a simple scaled pixel count suffices.

However collapsing a complex geometric object to a plain number loses too much information — surprising facts such as melt nesting, uniform perimeter shrinkage, supplemented in special regions such as ESS and northern Chukchi, lack of significant internal polynya development, opening fjords of the northern CAA, and rare deterioration above NE Greenland. Given just a number for area opened, none of this can be recovered from inversion.

Steps are simple; the trick is keeping color picker at the right setting operating on the right active layer:

open five dates before Aug 10th as a short stack in Gimp, 10th on top
set mode on each to ‘darken only’ to deprecate cloud cover artifacts
capture the view with with ‘new from visible’
delete the other dates and add Aug 01 from below.
set the color picker to desired concentration range on the embedded palette
crop stack to a non-excessive region of interest that works for both
select open water blue in the Bering 10th, change active layer to 1st, change color picker to ’subtract’, make new layer, name to avoid confusion, fill.
select open water blue on the 1st, change active layer to 10th, change color picker to ’subtract’, make new layer, name and fill with 2nd color.
set the color picker to ‘intersect’ to find open water common to both, make new layer, name and fill with 2nd color.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 11:29:21 PM by A-Team »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4761 on: August 11, 2020, 11:33:21 PM »
Quote
rare deterioration above NE Greenland.
high contrast view of north of greenland today. https://go.nasa.gov/31B9abW
No graticule but the swaths head roughly towards the pole. Click for full resolution and default view

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4762 on: August 11, 2020, 11:42:20 PM »
This is one reason why we will probably have a very high melt left for this year, sea surface temperature anomaly 2 C - 10 C. Is this AGW, reduction in aerosol masking effects or a new normal?

August 2016 El Nino year, August 2020.

I dont think you are comparing like with like, Glenn.

If the SSTA images are from Nullschool, they changed their source for SSTs about a year ago.

See the source details on attached images. 2016 is different to the current source.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4763 on: August 11, 2020, 11:46:57 PM »
This is one reason why we will probably have a very high melt left for this year, sea surface temperature anomaly 2 C - 10 C. Is this AGW, reduction in aerosol masking effects or a new normal? They are the same sources for wind and surface temps so we can compare those.

August 2016 El Nino year, August 2020.

I dont think you are comparing like with like, Glenn.

If the SSTA images are from Nullschool, they changed their source for SSTs about a year ago.

See the source details on attached images. 2016 is different to the current source.

The older sources are still 2 C- 10 C anomaly difference.  Sea surface temperature was 7 C in the Arctic Ocean, West of Svalbard the other day and above 6 C most days this month, 8.7 C, August 2nd. Here is the same day, time and source 2016, -0.5 C and 2020, 6.2 C. Sources will not change the anomaly much it is there for all to see.

The peak was 11 C in the Arctic Ocean 28th July, in the third weather chart. Comparing 2016, 28th July 0.9 C.

The Arctic is cooking in 2020 compared to the last 6 years in most places, late Summer stands out.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 04:02:29 PM by glennbuck »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4764 on: August 12, 2020, 12:36:18 AM »
Great to have you here, A-Team. We always learn from your comments!

100 km/h winds off Greenland on 13th Aug.

I find very interesting the winds that glennbuck talk about. What I find interesting is that they also bring heat close to the North Pole.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/08/14/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-94.01,75.28,911/loc=93.827,89.539

P.S. I wonder what will be the consequences on the Lincoln Sea and on the mega crack.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 12:50:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4765 on: August 12, 2020, 01:33:48 AM »
tst

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4766 on: August 12, 2020, 06:01:48 AM »
I am consistently surprised as to how terrible the ice looks while extent has simultaneously been relatively consistent over the last two weeks.

Does anyone know if the outer boundary of the region of thoroughly rotten ice in the NE Chuchki/NW Beaufort area is considered part of the ice extent or melted out? If the ice extent edge includes that area, could we potentially see a massive dump in extent if it finally clears out a bit more?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 06:09:36 AM by I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER »

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4767 on: August 12, 2020, 06:24:55 AM »
NSIDC sea ice concentration/extent in the Rae Strait east of King William Island in the CAA in the center of the first image as compared to satellite reality.  I realize that there are computational artifacts in the NSIDC images but shouldn't the average of nothing but zeros still be zero?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4768 on: August 12, 2020, 07:22:22 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Oh my...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4769 on: August 12, 2020, 07:26:21 AM »
Agree, IILWAR, the U. Bremen AMSR2 map is looking very ratty for the date. The region north of Greenland is freaking me out a bit!

If I may be so bold as to ask a favour, could someone with the ability please update the excellent "Sea Ice Concentration maps" page to include 2019.

It's a favourite page of mine for comparisons. Next day for comparisons is in 2 days time:
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0813

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4770 on: August 12, 2020, 08:14:20 AM »
August 7-11.

2019.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4771 on: August 12, 2020, 08:23:59 AM »
Extent melt has gone so slow the past 2 weeks that even going below 4million is looking a small challenge now. Amazing how it changes so quick. If you think something is going to happen in the Arctic it rarely does happen the way you think. Imagine if we end up at something like 4.05 after all the melt of July. It will be quite miraculous. But the state of the ice is terrible so it can only be a matter of years now.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4772 on: August 12, 2020, 09:18:21 AM »
August 7-11.

2019.
I just figured out a new trick. I opened your GIF and then clicked on mine forgetting that yours was still open. I didn't know mine would open up in the same pop-up window, and so now I can use the back and forward buttons to switch between our gifs, which makes it easy to see where on the ice the wind will hit.

I want to learn what BFTV is doing with my GIF. That way we don't need to double post. Can you teach me B? I tried it myself yesterday, but my graphics skills need a major update...
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4773 on: August 12, 2020, 09:32:43 AM »
Will send you a PM with instructions later, Freegrass. Though as I'm only learning gimp atm, I probably don't work in an efficient way yet!

Here's some images showing the changes in sea ice so far this month.
First just highlights where ice has been lost entirely in red, with the concentration from the 11th overlayed.
The second shows are of ice gain too (not much) and concentration changes.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4774 on: August 12, 2020, 09:44:29 AM »
Cool! Thank you  :)
Maybe we can do it here, in public?
Creating Animated GIFs
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interstitial

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4775 on: August 12, 2020, 10:17:29 AM »
Extent melt has gone so slow the past 2 weeks that even going below 4million is looking a small challenge now. Amazing how it changes so quick. If you think something is going to happen in the Arctic it rarely does happen the way you think. Imagine if we end up at something like 4.05 after all the melt of July. It will be quite miraculous. But the state of the ice is terrible so it can only be a matter of years now.
Jaxa Extent was the first parameter I tracked but the noise created by dispersion and concentration of thin ice make it too hard to see the signal of Arctic ice state.
I think this was much less of an issue when the ice was thicker because it only affected a small region around the periphery. There seems to be too much noise in the extent signal to always see the effect of weather on sea ice.  In my opinion lowest extent <> worst Arctic Sea ice conditions.



BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4776 on: August 12, 2020, 12:05:54 PM »
Cool! Thank you  :)
Maybe we can do it here, in public?
Creating Animated GIFs

Sure. Will add in when I have the time
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4777 on: August 12, 2020, 02:06:23 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4778 on: August 12, 2020, 02:21:37 PM »
I am consistently surprised as to how terrible the ice looks while extent has simultaneously been relatively consistent over the last two weeks.



The famous calm before the storm, at least provided that there won't be any unprecedented surprises.

There are so vast areas on the verge of collapse (falling below the 15% threshold) that we would probably need widespread temps below -5C ot prevent the imminent drops and then the longer it takes the more record drops we shall probably encounter in case that above mentioned exceptional events won't happen over the next 3-8 days.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4779 on: August 12, 2020, 02:23:41 PM »
Extent melt has gone so slow the past 2 weeks that even going below 4million is looking a small challenge now. Amazing how it changes so quick. If you think something is going to happen in the Arctic it rarely does happen the way you think. Imagine if we end up at something like 4.05 after all the melt of July. It will be quite miraculous. But the state of the ice is terrible so it can only be a matter of years now.

jaja.... what else, open your eyes and consult a 3-5 day forecast and then re-consider.

<Small edit. O>
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 02:28:22 PM by oren »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4780 on: August 12, 2020, 02:46:13 PM »
OMG. A-team #4760 you are my hero. Daily lurker, but that calls for appreciation. Thank you

echoughton

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4781 on: August 12, 2020, 02:56:21 PM »
When the Jenette sailed off to meet its fate 140 or so years ago, one of the objectives of the adventure was to prove or not the existence of a "shangrila" oasis of warmth and lush vegetation at the pole. It was believed...still is by some, I'm sure...that after you managed to get by all the ice on the way north, the very top of the world was warm and lusicious with tropical vegetation. Just putting that out there for no other reason than I am bored.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4782 on: August 12, 2020, 03:05:11 PM »
drift update, may29-aug12

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4783 on: August 12, 2020, 03:29:52 PM »
James Peacock
@peacockreports

Okay, own up, who pressed fast forward on the Quasi Biennial Oscillation?

Smallest doughnut on record.

#stratosphere #fail

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4784 on: August 12, 2020, 03:40:45 PM »
jaja.... what else, open your eyes and consult a 3-5 day forecast and then re-consider.
<Small edit. O>

Global models are forecasting neutral weather for ice retention in the short to medium range.

There are some warmer than average upper level temps, however weak surface anticyclone over the CAB will have little effect on the sea ice area melt rate this time of the year. The winds for the most part, are forecast to remain light and variable. Solar isolation is decreasing daily. I expect area losses to be below average through the 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum.

The long range looks cold and favorable for sea ice retention. With the higher latitude, harder to melt positioning of the ice, the unprecedented slow August sea ice extent and area decreases, perhaps this is the year we see a record early minimum.










NSIDC sea ice extent is now in fifth place for the date.
 
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 04:04:25 PM by weatherdude88 »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4785 on: August 12, 2020, 04:03:51 PM »
James Peacock
@peacockreports

Okay, own up, who pressed fast forward on the Quasi Biennial Oscillation?

Smallest doughnut on record.

#stratosphere #fail

Can anyone elaborate more on this? :)  Cause, meaning, current arctic melt consequences?

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4786 on: August 12, 2020, 04:24:06 PM »
NSIDC saw the first holes.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4787 on: August 12, 2020, 05:34:25 PM »

Global models are forecasting neutral weather for ice retention in the short to medium range.


On the contrary, I'd say the short to medium term looks much worse for the ice than long range forecast, which I think most of us know isn't reliable past day 5. Both the GFS and Euro that you cite show a switch in the winds through the Fram between d2-3, forming something of a dipole (much stronger on Euro) between d3-6 that will push additional ice into the warm waters of Greenland Sea. Alongside this there's a heatwave coming off Alaska into Beaufort and Chukchi, which will finish off much of the low concentration ice there.

I'd guess extent losses will take off in the next 2-3 days, though its really volume where this year still has a chance at record losses, which much of the thick ice exported to Beaufort looking rather sparse the last couple days...
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4788 on: August 12, 2020, 06:12:22 PM »
Red dog dock is a long way from the ice right now but it shows water and air temperatures headed north right now.

Wind Direction (WDIR):   SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):   9.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST):   11.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.96 in
Air Temperature (ATMP):   48.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP):   54.0 °F
Wind Chill (CHILL):   43.9 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):   9.7 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):   11.7 kts



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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4789 on: August 12, 2020, 06:27:57 PM »
NSIDC saw the first holes.

Better late then never...

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4790 on: August 12, 2020, 06:32:59 PM »
Not convinced at all by record early minimum but record lows for September are looking increasingly unlikely. How much can that Beaufort ice survive? I knew the Chukchi part was unlikely to survive and that is proven to be the case. Given the forecast is for compacting winds towards the pole, as others have said then we may see the ice edge head towards 85 degrees north along the Atlantic/Laptev edge.

High pressure ironically is perhaps better for the sea ice at this time of year but only if its got cold air underneath it, sadly the outlook does not really suggest it. I'll still bet highly we will finish below 2019 and therefore under 4 million.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4791 on: August 12, 2020, 06:41:26 PM »
I meant to reply more on this, especially to a response about the breakup of ice above Northern Greenland but got busy with life and it escaped me.

I really do not foresee the record being broken this year, but the ice certainly isn't looking healthy by any means. What I'm most interesting in seeing if ice will clear out of the Fram to the Atlantic and then merge with the Lincoln/open water above the aforementioned area.

That said, last year must have been one hell of a winter because the Beaufort has held up better than I thought it would. Additionally, I thought all of the direct sun in July would have done more damage, but after that cyclone ended it looks like the melt never returned to what it was.
pls!

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4792 on: August 12, 2020, 08:52:43 PM »
EC 12z op run has a huge blow torch in store for the Beaufort Sea. Should be the final attack before the Arctic starts go settle down for the minimum.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4793 on: August 12, 2020, 09:12:27 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4794 on: August 12, 2020, 09:12:38 PM »
Weatherdude, perhaps you should ask for a change of your user name. Yes, if you mean in six months it's going to get cold, you're right, winter is coming. However, in terms of the melting season, the Euro is setting up a dipole with a blast of heat at the Beaufort and the cold lows aloft over the water covered parts of the Arctic. That's going to shove the extent off a cliff over the next ten days.

That's a 5 wave pattern on the 500mb hemispheric which can get stuck in place so it's going to get interesting for the next few weeks. We might see a dipole with storms over the warm water areas on the Siberian and Kara seas.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4795 on: August 12, 2020, 09:34:15 PM »
North of Greenland today. The deterioration spreads  :o

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4796 on: August 12, 2020, 09:37:59 PM »
The slide show below compares 2012 post-GAAC ice evolution in mid August-Sept via open water edge overlays to the 11 Aug 2020 situation this year. The last two weeks of the 2012 melt season mostly saw the ice pack blown over intact towards the Pacific side, leaving early Sept 2012 as a closer comparison.

Provided the already devastated Beaufort and Chukchi melt out to the edge of the central Arctic MYI as they have been doing each day (per AMSR2 UHH differencing), August 11 of this year already looks very similar (4th slide) to the 2012 end of season despite being more than five weeks earlier. (Clouds have been deprecated by the steps listed above.)

The most significant difference lies in the interior which remained solid ice in 2012 but in 2020 has ever-worsening ice concentration between the pole and Greenland-Ellesmere and increasingly dodgy Atlantic ice well north of the SV-FJL-SZ line demarcating Gulf Stream intrusion. 

Most season-ends are just variations on how far weather and bottom melt managed to melt peripheral SYI before being shut down by dark and cold, with core CAB ice possibly deformed or shifted but not really damaged that much (though older sea ice age classes tracked by NSIDC are steadily diminishing).

If the unprecedented attack on the MYI CAB keeps up, we might have to re-think the ridicule of 18th and 19th century Arctic maps showing an open water paradise around the north pole surrounded by peripheral ice; however the 1950's concept of a western boundary current along the Atlantic shelf has held up fairly well. It's fair to wonder though, in the absence of other mechanisms, if spin-off Atlantic Water eddies might be providing inferred heat under the ice poleward of Greenland.

The last three slides provide an end-of-season in silico melt scenario for the current season. This type of visualization can be produced on AMSR2 by gradually raising the radius of the color picker tool in Gimp while selecting on residual low concentration ice and infilling with open-water blue.

The full-on BOE suggested by the final slide would take another month of summer, not on the calendar yet. As discussed earlier though, we are already well into fractional BOE north of the Arctic Circleas a whole.

The slide show needs a click but even better a download; open as a stack in gimp or imagej so separate frames provide the time that you need for them.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 09:55:02 PM by A-Team »

dnem

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4797 on: August 12, 2020, 10:09:56 PM »
The last three slides provide an end-of-season in silico melt scenario for the current season.

Is the 15 SEP 2020 slide your actual best guess scenario for that date? What would the extent of that scenario be?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4798 on: August 12, 2020, 10:27:17 PM »
NSIDC ice age was updated to august recently. Here is 2012vs2020 for the melting season.
Beaufort decapitated in 2012. Maybe that is yet to come this year.
2000-2020 here

The Walrus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4799 on: August 12, 2020, 10:28:20 PM »
F.O.o.W.,

Most weather forecasters are predicting cooler temperatures for northern Alaska over the next fortnight.  Hence, I would side with weatherdude.