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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4900 on: August 15, 2020, 01:17:51 AM »
New record?

Some folks have been wondering about the extent numbers slowdown, and scratching their heads over it.
<snip>
From the NASA age of ice map recently posted here, I would infer a recovery, if anything, of surviving 4+ year old ice. But nothing dramatic to observe an ice regime back to pre 2007, or unknown chart territory of any sort, anyway. A really warm season, that is. The CAB ice, compacted and uniform, will do a nice basis of two year ice and beyond in the coming years.
gandul, your choice of supporting evidence for this assertion looks perilously close to being cherry picked.

Compared to other data sources, it also looks counter-factual.

Consider:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/20200813_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

And:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif

(note: - the HYCOM link is transient, and in the future, to reference the specific date you'd need to go through their archive)

Any talk of recovery sounds to me like whistling in the dark.  You need to marshal a lot more concrete evidence.
My point is that I don’t see any abrupt transition to a different regime this season, all that I see is increasingly warmer seasons, period. The ice age map does not really reveal a drastic deterioration of ice in terms of years alive wrt 2012.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4901 on: August 15, 2020, 01:32:41 AM »
This pattern with a flow from Beaufort to Laptev and then the Atlantic, with finally a bit of a ridge over Greenland, predicted by EC 12z for day 4, actually starts in day 3 and persist till day 7 and beyond to day 10. It is not very strong but means compacting winds and also pulling warm air from continents and from the Pacific. We should indeed see some wrapping-up of the central pack, and accelerated melting of the broken Chukchi and Beaufort sea ice.

D-Penguin

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4902 on: August 15, 2020, 04:21:19 AM »
New record?

Some folks have been wondering about the extent numbers slowdown, and scratching their heads over it.
<snip>
From the NASA age of ice map recently posted here, I would infer a recovery, if anything, of surviving 4+ year old ice. But nothing dramatic to observe an ice regime back to pre 2007, or unknown chart territory of any sort, anyway. A really warm season, that is. The CAB ice, compacted and uniform, will do a nice basis of two year ice and beyond in the coming years.
gandul, your choice of supporting evidence for this assertion looks perilously close to being cherry picked.

Compared to other data sources, it also looks counter-factual.

Consider:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/20200813_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

And:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif

(note: - the HYCOM link is transient, and in the future, to reference the specific date you'd need to go through their archive)

Any talk of recovery sounds to me like whistling in the dark.  You need to marshal a lot more concrete evidence.
My point is that I don’t see any abrupt transition to a different regime this season, all that I see is increasingly warmer seasons, period. The ice age map does not really reveal a drastic deterioration of ice in terms of years alive wrt 2012.
With respect, I suggest that you are seeing the wrong metrics to conclude that there is not "any abrupt transition to a different regime this season" (Quote - Gandul).

The available quantitative systems that we reference to determine the status of the ice is now beyond the ability of such systems to represent a reasonably accurate overview. Comparison of the usual metrics for Arctic ice in 2020 with previous years is not comparing like-with-like.

It is the degree of 'fragmentation' of the ice in 2020 and metrics this produces that degrades the quality of the quantitative comparisons and this includes the comparison with 2012. We now have to rely on the qualitative 'analysis' of the available photographic evidence. The Arctic ice has entered a new phase and it has been abrupt.

What is now happening in the Arctic is a phase of "increasingly warmer seasons" (Quote - Gandul). However, the Heat Balance in the Arctic system is now at a 'tipping point' and 2020 exemplifies a new phase in the context of the combination of degraded ice and extended insolation.

Furthermore, what is happening to the Arctic sea ice is mirrored by what is happening to the Arctic land ice, in particular, the Greenland ice cap.

None of the above response can be proven; science cannot 'prove' a future event, it can only provide projections based on historical facts and the existing projections are far behind the curve of the reality. The science will record the 'tipping point' as a singular event in a 'trend' and only retrospectively as a change of regime. Too late was the cry!

The complete loss of the Arctic sea ice will not be part of a trend or changing regime it will be an abrupt event.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 04:50:54 AM by D-Penguin »
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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4903 on: August 15, 2020, 04:33:37 AM »
There really are no words for how amazed I am to see the complete destruction of ice above northern Greenland. I know it's not a single thing per-se, rather a 'why not all of the above' situations regarding why the Lincoln Sea is breaking down. But given there is roughly a month left, I suspect the surprises will just keep coming.

The entire Atlantic side is also taking a huge beating with bottom melt, surface melt, wind+waves. I really wonder what the currents are doing...

Agree Pearscot, it definitely looks like a harbinger of things to come as we have seen signs of this developing in prior years but this year it is suddenly becoming abundantly apparent that something is changing.  Remember when we all believed the last stronghold of ice would be landfast up against the CAA and Northern Greenland.  Now it is looking to me that as we get closer to BOE the last ice will be getting hit from all sides and cast adrift somewhere out in the middle of the CAB.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4904 on: August 15, 2020, 06:16:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2020:
     5,039,562 km2, a drop of -81,511 km2.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

The first major decline in late July and first half of August. It is greater than the drop in the 2010's average.
From my point of view, looking at the Bremen concentration map, there is still a lot of weakness and possibility of melting/compression in the ASI.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4905 on: August 15, 2020, 06:38:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2020:
     5,039,562 km2, a drop of -81,511 km2.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

The first major decline in late July and first half of August. It is greater than the drop in the 2010's average.
From my point of view, looking at the Bremen concentration map, there is still a lot of weakness and possibility of melting/compression in the ASI.

Breman also uses a higher resolution channel that Essentially derives it's extent value exclusively from the CHANNEL 89 GHZ -- 3X5km resolution.

While jaxa IIRC uses the bootstrap algorithm.

Which IIRC uses CHANNEL 18 AND 36 GHZ.  One of them provides the basic ice coverage/concentration.

While the other helps weed out influence from clouds, vapor, ice crystals, fog...

And this is at 12KM resolution.


Also the Bremen time series that shows today at like 4.85 million is an average of the last 5 days with heavier weighted average on the most recent 2 days.

Jaxa uses a blend average of the most recent 2 days that is a smoothing method.


Lastly AMSR2 CHANNEL 89ghz as an exclusive way to determine ice concentration is likely worse than using norsex ssmis low res channels.

Just a heads up

But yeah jaxa is probably going to have some centuries.

Probably lose about 1-1.15 million between now and Sept 1st.


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Ktb

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4906 on: August 15, 2020, 07:30:05 AM »
Anybody else looking at the beaufort tail thinking it will eventually be completely severed from the rest of the pack?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4907 on: August 15, 2020, 07:38:38 AM »
I do wonder if there will be some serious long-term implications on the shape of the core pack from the end shape of the ice sheet (or rubble field) at the end of this season. If the MYI does completely detach and drift towards the Beaufort and the current Beaufort arm gets severed, I would assume this would lead to some further anomalous new behavior and dynamics next melt season.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4908 on: August 15, 2020, 07:38:54 AM »

Lastly AMSR2 CHANNEL 89ghz as an exclusive way to determine ice concentration is likely worse than using norsex ssmis low res channels.

Just a heads up

But yeah jaxa is probably going to have some centuries.

Probably lose about 1-1.15 million between now and Sept 1st.

Fantastic information on sensor specifics Frivolousz21.  As you seem knowledgeable in this area am I correct that NSIDC pulls data from SSMIS DMSP-F17 which has lost a couple of channels?  Since F18 seems to be quite degraded now, F16 appears to be dead, F19 died early on and there is no F20, am wondering what NSIDC will do for data after F17 dies which could be any day as it is over 13 years old and well past its planned service life?  Switch to AMSR2 which is 8 years old and near EOL also?

If AMSR2 and SSMIS DMSP-F17 die what is left for tracking Arctic sea ice other than the Chinese 9 year old MWRI FY3B and 2+ year old FY3D ( apparently FY3C is gone now too )?

Also was wondering if there is anywhere to see output products from the two operational MWRI sensors if they become the only game in town?

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4909 on: August 15, 2020, 07:41:11 AM »
Anybody else looking at the beaufort tail thinking it will eventually be completely severed from the rest of the pack?

Yep, that is what I also expect.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4910 on: August 15, 2020, 08:26:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2020:
     5,039,562 km2, a drop of -81,511 km2.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
<snip>

<snip>
But yeah jaxa is probably going to have some centuries.

Probably lose about 1-1.15 million between now and Sept 1st.
Concur.  Possibly more.

Snapshot of what's typical in the Chukchi, Beaufort and what remains of the ESS.

This ice has 10-14 days, at maximum, unless it gets rescued by cold cloudy weather.  Maybe not even then.
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Steven

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4911 on: August 15, 2020, 08:49:33 AM »
5-day pixel-wise median of the latest Bremen images:




3-day median: 
https://i.imgur.com/GW61IId.png

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4912 on: August 15, 2020, 09:02:00 AM »
Jim's gonna be freezing going for those 20 second period waves at Nazarre on his rhino chaser. It looks like energy now associated with Kyle will whip it's way into the deep low that is forecast for the Kara sea.

I leave Nazaré to the professionals FOoW! The waiting period for the 2020 GWC Arctic Basin Big Wave (Fantasy?) Surfing Contest has begun though. Some of the training sessions have been recorded for posterity:





There's plenty of >10 second period swells forecast for the Barents & Kara Seas, but nothing yet for the Pacific side of the basin that I can see.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4913 on: August 15, 2020, 09:29:56 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

interstitial

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4914 on: August 15, 2020, 10:04:37 AM »
Fantastic information on sensor specifics Frivolousz21.  As you seem knowledgeable in this area am I correct that NSIDC pulls data from SSMIS DMSP-F17 which has lost a couple of channels?  Since F18 seems to be quite degraded now, F16 appears to be dead, F19 died early on and there is no F20, am wondering what NSIDC will do for data after F17 dies which could be any day as it is over 13 years old and well past its planned service life?  Switch to AMSR2 which is 8 years old and near EOL also?

If AMSR2 and SSMIS DMSP-F17 die what is left for tracking Arctic sea ice other than the Chinese 9 year old MWRI FY3B and 2+ year old FY3D ( apparently FY3C is gone now too )?

Also was wondering if there is anywhere to see output products from the two operational MWRI sensors if they become the only game in town?
I only looked at the microwave channels because that is what SSMIS DMSP-F17 is and AMSR2 has microwave channels as well.

NOAA-20 formerly JPSS-1 has an improved microwave channel and a design life of 7 years it was launched November 2017 22 bands from 23 GHz to 183 GHz. Nadir resolution 15.8-74.8 km 32 kbps in addition to the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) NOAA-20 has Cloads and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) CRoss-track Infrared Sounder(CrIS) Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite(OMPS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)

Followed by
JPSS-2 launch 2021
JPSS-3 launch 2026
JPSS-4 launch 2031
For comparison
SSMIS DMSP-F17
21 frequencies 24 channels 2 bands 54 GHz and 183 GHz 14.2 kbps
AMSR2
 
6.925/7.3, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5 and 89 Ghz resolution from 3 to 62km

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4915 on: August 15, 2020, 11:43:55 AM »
The extent hole in the Beaufort grows, looks like we'll see big drops the next few days at it fills out through to the edge. Click gif

JayW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4916 on: August 15, 2020, 11:52:42 AM »

[
NOAA-20 formerly JPSS-1 has an improved microwave channel and a design life of 7 years it was launched November 2017 22 bands from 23 GHz to 183 GHz. Nadir resolution 15.8-74.8 km 32 kbps in addition to the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)

6.925/7.3, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5 and 89 Ghz resolution from 3 to 62km
Know of anywhere this data is available?  I've been looking, can't find it.   I've sent a couple emails to the RAMMB folks inquiring about it,  and asking if there was a way to add it to the slider.  No response yet.   Perhaps if others also ask, we could talk them into adding it.  :)
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MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4917 on: August 15, 2020, 12:23:59 PM »
The ice looks like swiss cheese and with a month or so left we could see it get pummeled even more.

At the end of the day I really don't think extent will end up in first unless century and double century drops start to occur frequently but we're quickly approaching Sept so I'm thinking either 2nd or 3rd place at this point.

But yeah... the ice this year, hahaha.. does not look really good at all and I begin to wonder what next year has in store for us.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4918 on: August 15, 2020, 12:24:08 PM »
Animation 1: An update on the changes so far this month in the Beaufort and Chukchi regions

Animation 2: Detailed look specifically at the change between the 13th and 14th. I'm kinda surprised at just how much ice has been lost in that one day. Perhaps we'll see some flash back?

Larger versions of both gifs are on my twitter
https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1294569454152515586
https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1294572262415306752
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4919 on: August 15, 2020, 02:28:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4920 on: August 15, 2020, 04:36:37 PM »
The extent of the Laptev Sea in NSDIC data is close to a absolute record - 24033.23 km2.

1. 2014    887 km2
2. 2018   9031 km2
3. 2013  11830 km2
4. 2011  14157 km2
5. 2012  21509 km2

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4921 on: August 15, 2020, 05:58:57 PM »
              NSIDC daily extent 2020-08-14  5.137m  −246K  !

  .. copied from Alphabet hotel's post in SIA and extent thread .. not unexpected (by some ) but it certainly took it's time . I would guess it is one of the biggest 1 day anomalies ever too .. b.c.

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4922 on: August 15, 2020, 06:00:10 PM »
2020 vs. 2019

Click.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4923 on: August 15, 2020, 06:17:25 PM »
The upcoming extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Kyle and phasing with a downstream major shortwave trough is liable to cause a major pattern disruption, with NWP all catching onto a major Greenland-centered blocking pattern and some sort of associated +DA event. Could certainly put the squeeze on the remaining MYI CAB ice.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4924 on: August 15, 2020, 06:33:09 PM »
              NSIDC daily extent 2020-08-14  5.137m  −246K  !

  .. copied from Alphabet hotel's post in SIA and extent thread .. not unexpected (by some ) but it certainly took it's time . I would guess it is one of the biggest 1 day anomalies ever too .. b.c.

I see a 185,000 km^2 loss in 2012 August JAXA, Sea ice extent has a lot of catching up to Sea ice area, was due and more to come probably. Not NSIDC Loss below graph but would make a JAXA loss record. JAXA, 225,000 km^2, Loss in July 2012 one day was record for years and dates shown.

NSIDC Daily Area

Arctic Sea ice area for Aug 14th,  3,078,077 million km^2.

lowest minimum September area records on the left and ending extent on September minimum on the right. 31 days to September minimum 2020.

(2012) 2.241                           : 3.387
(2016) 2.477                           : 4.165
(2011) 2.940                           : 4.348
(2019) 2.960                           : 4.192
(2017) 3.020                           : 4.665
(2007) 3.050                           : 4.155
(2008) 3.120                           : 4.586
(2015) 3.160                           : 4.438

(2020), 3.078                          : 5.137         

Based on Area you would expect NSIDC extent to be around 4,600,000 million km^2 today with a conservative estimate, or 4,200,000 million km^2 more on the higher level, unless the difference is, Area of Ocean with at least 15% sea ice.

JAXA is high extent also, compared to NSIDC daily area.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,039,562 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2020.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2020, 12:27:27 PM by glennbuck »

kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4925 on: August 15, 2020, 07:37:08 PM »
2020 vs. 2019

These are the voyages of purple island! Really curious to see how this goes the next few weeks.
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pikaia

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4926 on: August 15, 2020, 08:34:40 PM »
Over the nest two days we will see an increase of 46 and a small decrease of -16 drop out of the 5-day average. This drop in the average is very likely to be well above a century as a result.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4927 on: August 15, 2020, 09:03:39 PM »
Data from the 6 whoi itp buoys in the Beaufort at 6m depth.
Temperatures rising a little recently on 3 of the buoys. The 4 that measure salinity are all dropping, likely due to melt.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4928 on: August 15, 2020, 09:06:39 PM »
Attached you can see what NSIDC sees & what Univ Bremen sees using AMRS2.

It is obvious that given such an unusually vast area of low concentration, due to the 15% rule the NSIDC extent measure  is going to record an unusually high amount of ice as there when it is not.

But in the end, until such time satellite #F17 goes kaput, NSIDC extent is what goes in the book of record used by all. (And its no use calling "foul - we demand a recount").

_________________________________________
ps: Time to ask again from NSIDC "what happens after...."
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 09:13:54 PM by gerontocrat »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4929 on: August 15, 2020, 09:08:16 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4930 on: August 16, 2020, 03:33:20 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I'm still up,  so I'll probably be late for the morning temp forecast.  So here it is a little early...

Those little storms in the ESS and Chukchi are becoming nasty.  :'(
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4931 on: August 16, 2020, 06:30:58 AM »
Those little storms in the ESS and Chukchi are becoming nasty.  :'(

IDK whether to be excited or sad.  :-\

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4932 on: August 16, 2020, 07:51:37 AM »
August 11-15.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4933 on: August 16, 2020, 07:56:06 AM »
The latest gfs forecast has more of Kyle's energy head north . Anything like the two sub 975mb lows in the 2nd half of the forecast would devastate what's left of the Atlantic side . I should almost wish Kyle wrecks Ireland instead .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4934 on: August 16, 2020, 08:12:59 AM »
August 11-15.

2019.
Thanks again for these animations Aluminium.
The effects of the intense cyclone a couple of weeks back have finally resulted in a lot of open water around the Chukchi. The damage was done back then but the ice was hanging by a thread for a bit.
I hope the CAB doesn't reach this threshold soon and that September will mercifully save it from the immense damage done in July.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4935 on: August 16, 2020, 09:02:03 AM »

[
NOAA-20 formerly JPSS-1 has an improved microwave channel and a design life of 7 years it was launched November 2017 22 bands from 23 GHz to 183 GHz. Nadir resolution 15.8-74.8 km 32 kbps in addition to the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)

6.925/7.3, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5 and 89 Ghz resolution from 3 to 62km
Know of anywhere this data is available?  I've been looking, can't find it.   I've sent a couple emails to the RAMMB folks inquiring about it,  and asking if there was a way to add it to the slider.  No response yet.   Perhaps if others also ask, we could talk them into adding it.  :)
When I posted they gave me an online srvey and I requested links to data. I just discovered it myself.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4936 on: August 16, 2020, 01:59:21 PM »
Looks like large extent losses today too.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4937 on: August 16, 2020, 02:39:36 PM »
Here's a comparison in the ice loss between 2012 and 2020 for the first half of August.

Larger version of the animation is here: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1294975421201645570
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4938 on: August 16, 2020, 02:49:14 PM »
Attached you can see what NSIDC sees & what Univ Bremen sees using AMRS2.

It is obvious that given such an unusually vast area of low concentration, due to the 15% rule the NSIDC extent measure  is going to record an unusually high amount of ice as there when it is not.

But in the end, until such time satellite #F17 goes kaput, NSIDC extent is what goes in the book of record used by all. (And its no use calling "foul - we demand a recount").

_________________________________________
ps: Time to ask again from NSIDC "what happens after...."

I think that is why earlier this summer we had JAXA extent at 2nd lowest and never been above 2012 yet the NSIDC had extent at around 8th lowest! And well above 2012 to boot also. I remember making a post about it earlier this summer regarding this. As I said previously, for such an top organisation, they should consider using better satalites really and it says it all when they actually use the bremen charts in their analysis at times.

Back to the here and now and surprisingly too me, the dipole never really occured and now the models are favouring a slack set up with higher pressure nearer the pole and a weak trough over the Chukchi area. Nothing dramatic but given there is quite a bit of diffused ice then you still can't rule out above average extent drops. What is looking less likely though is the ice around the pole will become diffused like it did in 2016 especially. I still favour extent to fall below 4 million and below 2019 extent but that will depends how much of that arm of Beaufort ice survives between now and September. If most of it survives then an extent of above 4 million is possible.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4939 on: August 16, 2020, 03:04:02 PM »
We've got a "flash back" with the NSIDC extent, up 63k today
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

dnem

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4940 on: August 16, 2020, 03:12:55 PM »
We've got a "flash back" with the NSIDC extent, up 63k today

Even with that, the past three days are averaging over -94k (101+246-63)/3.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4941 on: August 16, 2020, 04:33:02 PM »
The WARM Buoy and Side Kick system (see below) was deployed at ICEX 2020 camp station in Beaufort Sea.

I've just stumbled across these moving pictures of ICEX 2020:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4942 on: August 16, 2020, 04:41:33 PM »
Looks like large extent losses today too.
I'm quite surprised that the Greenland sea didn't lose more ice with those powerful winds there for the last two days.

Wind forecast will have to wait until tonight. Too many frames aren't being updated on Nullschool and so it's a mess not worth posting.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4943 on: August 16, 2020, 05:05:01 PM »
I think that is why earlier this summer we had JAXA extent at 2nd lowest and never been above 2012 yet the NSIDC had extent at around 8th lowest! And well above 2012 to boot also. I remember making a post about it earlier this summer regarding this. As I said previously, for such an top organisation, they should consider using better satalites really and it says it all when they actually use the bremen charts in their analysis at times.
NSIDC extent is meant to be as consistent as possible for long term comparative purposes. The earliest arctic satellite was Nimbus 7 launched in 1978. That was a long time ago and the SMMR sensor does not compare performance wise. Now they actually get data from better sensors but adjust it not for highest accuracy but for long term consistency. The early sensors did not do well with water and thin ice. Sea ice concentration is approximately 5% accurate during the freezing season and 15% accurate during the melt season. Area and Extent are more accurate as only a fraction of area or extent use concentration values. Accuracy is further affected by thin ice and freshwater. All this is described in their documentation. Extent is more accurate than area but area is more consistent with reality.
NSIDC Under the MASIE acronym makes a 4km resolution product (Starts in 2006) and a 1km resolution product (starts in 2014). These are more accurate at the time they are produced but no effort is made to make them consistent for comparative purposes. 
 JAXA uses the same data as NSIDC early on but switches to AMSR series sensors with improved ability’s but reduced long term consistency. Well… thin ice and freshwater are more of an issue in recent years so the argument might be made that Jaxa has more consistency with older sensors than NSIDC. The Jaxa website does not discuss how they deal with long term consistency.

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4944 on: August 16, 2020, 05:43:19 PM »
It’s that time of year again.

Surface temps across the arctic have seen slowly increasing isolated pockets of below freezing temps.

6Z GFS -72 hours (3 days ago)


6Z GFS 72 hours


6z GFS 144 hours


As everyone can see, the majority of the ice pack is now transitioning to below freezing temperatures for the remainder of the 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season.

* This is normal for the time of year.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4945 on: August 16, 2020, 07:49:35 PM »
Last week in data. Click to play.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4946 on: August 16, 2020, 07:50:17 PM »
As everyone can see, the majority of the ice pack is now transitioning to below freezing temperatures for the remainder of the 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season.

A grand part of the blue area is 0 °C, that is still above freezing if there is on water with salt. But yes, the transition is starting...

Still one month to end the melting season.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4947 on: August 16, 2020, 08:26:16 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4948 on: August 16, 2020, 09:21:00 PM »
EC 12z op run has a possible serious bomb cyclone down to 967 hpa at D9. At D7-9 we might also see a strong dipole line up. The two good things are that this is far out in time and that the potential bomb cyclone is not hitting the most vulnerable parts of Beaufort Sea.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4949 on: August 16, 2020, 09:40:46 PM »
EC 12z op run has a possible serious bomb cyclone down to 967 hpa at D9. At D7-9 we might also see a strong dipole line up. The two good things are that this is far out in time and that the potential bomb cyclone is not hitting the most vulnerable parts of Beaufort Sea.
The problem is that both the GFS as the Euro are predicting the same horrible scenario for the end of the month. This could be the final "blow" for the ice if that happens.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...