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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5100 on: August 19, 2020, 11:11:54 PM »
      The chart gave me info I did not know about those relationships and timings.  Yes every year is different and trend means that 2020 is different from 2005, but my guess is that the information about seasonal offset between top and bottom melt, and even the approximate dates for start, peak, and end dates for top and bottom melt is probably still reasonably accurate for 2020.

Oh yes info is good and good to read it, will be accurate for start and finish top and bottom melt, my quibble was higher top/bottom melt today than in 2005 with the Arctic warming twice as fast and in a fast changing Arctic, experts at conferences use charts in 2019 from 2005. Scientists looking at data from 15 years ago while we are sat in ice baths trying to cool down in 2020.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 12:30:35 AM by glennbuck »

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5101 on: August 19, 2020, 11:17:45 PM »
Rod - thank you for posting that very disturbing image from the North Pile. Simply amazing. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
UCMiami - maybe not a scientist but excellent post.
Marcel g I agree, if this rotten ice survives it will be by the skin of its teeth. And it still needs to hold on for several tough weeks.
Glen K thanks for the data, I am betting melt ends later now than it used to, especially bottom melt. Surely also starts sooner, for the same latitude. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.

miki

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5102 on: August 19, 2020, 11:24:46 PM »
I haven't changed my prediction at all for several months and will repeat it here for everyones' unalloyed delight: This year will end in the upper half of the fourth million.

I doubt it. But keep hoping.
Just to get it straight

The fourth million is 3+ million to 4 million?
So the upper half of the fourth million is 3.5 to 4 million?

Sounds reasonable, but will the ice and the weather be reasonable?
The fourth million is indeed the million that starts after the third million.

My rational part agrees with you, Binntho. In fact that is what I put on my bin, with high confidence, when voting for this year extent minimum.
But in the last three weeks my guts have started cringing. There is truly a hell of a lot of energy stored in the Arctic this year. It has to go somewhere. Imho, and I hope I'm truly wrong: that soup of ice that is left (as Gero said, concentration does nor mean compaction) seems the perfect victim.

The land surrounding the Arctic was (still is) warmer than ever this summer.
The deepest layers of the Arctic Ocean are... oh, boy!

Pics: 100m, 200m & 500m.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5103 on: August 19, 2020, 11:31:31 PM »
I don’t think so. The solar input level, combined with the warmth from Siberia, has provided a heat out of scale of previous years.
The CAB resists because it was extraordinary compacted and because it lacks ocean heat input that other areas receive. So as unprecedented as it was, the warming needed to really make it go is probably 2030-scale.
I completely agree on the catalytic effect of storms. Actually the weak but persistent one over ESS is adding insult to injury to the Chukchi sea I am sure.
The thing in bold is what I said, no?

I'm worried about the ESS as well with that warm ice free ocean being churned around by that continuous lineup of raging storms...
Probably I misunderstood. But anyway.
Wow what a pic from Polarstern. Makes me think, who knows, a worse year things align it could lead to an ice-free CAB much sooner than 2030.
What would have happened with a central GAC about now...

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5104 on: August 19, 2020, 11:47:05 PM »

Probably I misunderstood. But anyway.
Wow what a pic from Polarstern. Makes me think, who knows, a worse year things align it could lead to an ice-free CAB much sooner than 2030.
What would have happened with a central GAC about now...

There is something brewing to bash the ice in the central CAB and North Greenland on the 23rd at 50km/h, 24th August if it is accurate, 65 km/h at 10 am and wind rising to 70 km/h at 1pm, that is as far forward weather goes. The Polarstern might be choppy getting out from the North Pole in 35-40 Knot winds surrounded by ice bouncing all over.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 12:20:55 AM by glennbuck »

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5105 on: August 20, 2020, 12:25:44 AM »
Rod - thank you for posting that very disturbing image from the North Pile. Simply amazing. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
UCMiami - maybe not a scientist but excellent post.
Marcel g I agree, if this rotten ice survives it will be by the skin of its teeth. And it still needs to hold on for several tough weeks.
Glen K thanks for the data, I am betting melt ends later now than it used to, especially bottom melt. Surely also starts sooner, for the same latitude. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
     I can see why you would think that top and/or bottom melt would end later now given the continuing trend of global (and doubly so) Arctic warming.  But that raises a question:  If that's true, why don't we see later dates for September minimum?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 12:33:32 AM by Glen Koehler »

miki

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5106 on: August 20, 2020, 12:28:49 AM »
Rod - thank you for posting that very disturbing image from the North Pile. Simply amazing. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
UCMiami - maybe not a scientist but excellent post.
Marcel g I agree, if this rotten ice survives it will be by the skin of its teeth. And it still needs to hold on for several tough weeks.
Glen K thanks for the data, I am betting melt ends later now than it used to, especially bottom melt. Surely also starts sooner, for the same latitude. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
     I can see why you would think that top and/or bottom melt would end later now given the continuing trend of global (and doubly so) Arctic warming.  But that raises a question of if that's true, why don't we see later dates for September minimum?

Because it still gets darker and cooler on the surface, I guess.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5107 on: August 20, 2020, 12:32:47 AM »
<snip>
Wow what a pic from Polarstern. Makes me think, who knows, a worse year things align it could lead to an ice-free CAB much sooner than 2030.
What would have happened with a central GAC about now...
    A strong storm at 90N would have created a whole new meaning for "pole hole".  The more I think about that Polarstern image, the more shocking it is.  There have been open water reports at 90N in previous years, but the Polarstern reports about weak ice and open water views on their trip to the North Pole indicates damage to the ice pack over a large area, not just a localized weak spot. 
 
    The Polarstern at North Pole image suggests that 2020 seems to have taken another big step towards ASI destruction.  It should be on the cover of the next IPPC report.  I understand it must be fun to reach that iconic spot on the globe, but given the destruction in the photo background which those folks understand more than anybody else, I wish they had taken a second photo of them all looking at the ice in horror. 

Gizmo

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5108 on: August 20, 2020, 01:20:51 AM »
Rod - thank you for posting that very disturbing image from the North Pile. Simply amazing. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
UCMiami - maybe not a scientist but excellent post.
Marcel g I agree, if this rotten ice survives it will be by the skin of its teeth. And it still needs to hold on for several tough weeks.
Glen K thanks for the data, I am betting melt ends later now than it used to, especially bottom melt. Surely also starts sooner, for the same latitude. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
     I can see why you would think that top and/or bottom melt would end later now given the continuing trend of global (and doubly so) Arctic warming.  But that raises a question of if that's true, why don't we see later dates for September minimum?

Because it still gets darker and cooler on the surface, I guess.

What about annual volume minima?  Have those been trending later as things warm up?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5109 on: August 20, 2020, 01:49:19 AM »
Wow, that ice is rotten. And as @gerontocrat says, that can't really be considered compacted, even if there are no big leads between the floes. That's a lot of melt ponds and rotten ice, and contrary to what @freegrass was saying, I don't think this state of compaction prevented much of July's solar insolation from getting into the water when such a high proportion is meltponds.

A high proportion of the solar energy would've passed right through those melt ponds and into the water, and the damage the sun caused is gobsmacking.
What's the temperature of melt ponds? It's an honest question I have no answer too. Logic tells me that they must be around freezing point, because if they would be any warmer, they would just cool down as they melt more ice underneath the pond.

If a melt pond finds a way to drain, how much ice would that water melt? I guess not much... I'm purely speculation here! Because what do I know about the arctic?

When you have a compact ice pack, I would think that the water on the surface of that ice should be around freezing temperature. Am I wrong about that?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5110 on: August 20, 2020, 01:54:24 AM »
Freegrass. The only thing you need to know for the melt pond temps is the salt content of the ice. The water will be pinned to the freezing/melting temp.
big time oops

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5111 on: August 20, 2020, 02:02:04 AM »

Probably I misunderstood. But anyway.
Wow what a pic from Polarstern. Makes me think, who knows, a worse year things align it could lead to an ice-free CAB much sooner than 2030.
What would have happened with a central GAC about now...

There is something brewing to bash the ice in the central CAB and North Greenland on the 23rd at 50km/h, 24th August if it is accurate, 65 km/h at 10 am and wind rising to 70 km/h at 1pm, that is as far forward weather goes. The Polarstern might be choppy getting out from the North Pole in 35-40 Knot winds surrounded by ice bouncing all over.

There is increasing hints in the models we may see quite a deep low hitting around Svalbard. Details could still change mind and things still need to come together but it's one to watch. Also high pressure over the basin could cause strong southerly winds in the Laptev Sea which could mean that ice edge gets ever closer to 85 degrees north.

Then we got the Beaufort high making an appearance, I don't think the tongue of ice in the Beaufort is as thin as the satalites make it out to be but it is losing thickness and it is a race on just how much survives between now and refreeze.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5112 on: August 20, 2020, 03:13:40 AM »
HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.


YES

YES

YES

YES

AND

HELL YES


WE MIGHT SEE SOME CRAZY STUFF TO CAP THIS MEET SEASON

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5113 on: August 20, 2020, 03:20:09 AM »
Some pretty incredible news from the North Pole today!

Below, is a photograph taken from the Polarstern at 12:45 pm on August 19, 2020 as the ship reached the North Pole. There are lots of melt ponds, and the ice that is left looks very thin.

Quote
”Based on the satellite imagery, at first we weren’t sure whether the loose ice cover was due to wind and currents, and were concerned that, if it was, a change in weather conditions could compact it again. Then we would have been caught in a mousetrap, and could have become trapped in the ice,” reports the MOSAiC Expedition Leader, who had previously reached the North Pole on board a research aircraft, in 2000. Once in the region, however, they found that much of the sea ice truly had melted away, and hadn’t simply been broken up by the wind.

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html



CRYOSAT AND ICESAT ARE GOING TO BE SHOCKING THIS EARLY OCTOBER
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5114 on: August 20, 2020, 03:52:41 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.


Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5115 on: August 20, 2020, 04:07:07 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.


If this post is to inflammatory then delete it.

Anyways reading back a few pages I notice multiple contributors who spent all summer for downplaying what took place, at times pushed data products in the not so genuine way and one poster from what I could gather since I can't see his posts even started posting daily during the slow early August stage in the daily records thread.

Well that stopped.  And now this thread haa seemingly gone silent.

Even tho 2019 is below 2020 on jaxa attn 2020 is going  to finish somewhere between 250-500K below 2019.

We are all bias but it's just a chuckle that there was no way 2020 was finishing above 2019 on any metric except whixh year had more ice coverage at it's minimum?

2019 will win that category easily
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5116 on: August 20, 2020, 04:10:31 AM »
Wow, that ice is rotten. And as @gerontocrat says, that can't really be considered compacted, even if there are no big leads between the floes. That's a lot of melt ponds and rotten ice, and contrary to what @freegrass was saying, I don't think this state of compaction prevented much of July's solar insolation from getting into the water when such a high proportion is meltponds.

A high proportion of the solar energy would've passed right through those melt ponds and into the water, and the damage the sun caused is gobsmacking.
What's the temperature of melt ponds? It's an honest question I have no answer too. Logic tells me that they must be around freezing point, because if they would be any warmer, they would just cool down as they melt more ice underneath the pond.

If a melt pond finds a way to drain, how much ice would that water melt? I guess not much... I'm purely speculation here! Because what do I know about the arctic?

When you have a compact ice pack, I would think that the water on the surface of that ice should be around freezing temperature. Am I wrong about that?

Freegrass, I think you’re missing how the energy is transferred: it doesn’t happen by heating up the melt ponds and then having a thermal transfer into the ice or water, it happens by the melt ponds acting as lenses, so the solar energy instead of bouncing off the white snow, passes through the clear melt pond, through the relatively clear ice, and into the water underneath. Many of the melt ponds in that photo have melted right through the ice too, so they’re essentially open water now.

If 50% of the surface of an area of ice is covered in melt ponds, and the albedo of the melt ponds is low but perhaps not quite as low as open water, then it’s almost the same as if The area of ice was 40-45% open water.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5117 on: August 20, 2020, 04:12:12 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.

Move that 150-200 Miles SW keep the wind and rain and a huge area of open water will emerge.


The area in question is well outlined on various products.

That happens and 2020 could beat 2012 in every metric.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5118 on: August 20, 2020, 04:25:05 AM »
The strength of that storm is highly likely below 975hpa. The path is still uncertain. if it is quite near the north pole, it will be a disaster.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5119 on: August 20, 2020, 05:15:36 AM »
The strength of that storm is highly likely below 975hpa. The path is still uncertain. if it is quite near the north pole, it will be a disaster.
If it goes to the North Pole, the people from MOSAiC are there!  ???
I hope they will be fine, but it is time to move out.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5120 on: August 20, 2020, 05:21:23 AM »
Being in the path of this potential ice wrecker here in Ireland .. at the minute I am uncertain if my home ( mobile) will be here tomorrow . Steady southerly gale gusting to storm at max atm ..  rain earlier was v.warm .. part of Kyle's contribution to the blast . Now named Ellen she is sending mega amounts of energy north helping make Polarstern the most perfect place to be on earth . I feel , by the time she returns home , the world will have been shocked by what has happened the ice .
 Cyclogenesis at work outside .. coming to the CAB soon ?

 looks like heat above and below sea level will be injected into the basin from both Atlantic and Pacific in the coming days .. hot land and sun heat in summer , now followed by ocean warmth for the fall . A few years ago I talked of my fear of a new season between melt and freeze .. the stormy fall and all that brings . Gusting SSW violent force 11 here atm . 4.20 am  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5121 on: August 20, 2020, 05:27:14 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.

Yikes, that is a terrible spot for a storm, there is warm water right there next to the ice.  If it then wanders into the CAB from there then the 2012 record may yet be in play IMO.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5122 on: August 20, 2020, 05:33:56 AM »
Looking at Piomas around 70% of remaining ice is 0.5m-1.5m Thickness.

Not being super critical of PIOMAS as they do a valuable service, but seriously, their 8/15 map is showing a lot of ice where we know there was zero thickness.  Some bits of even the thicker ice are zero.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 05:41:33 AM by ArcTickTock »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5123 on: August 20, 2020, 05:40:25 AM »
Be safe be cause! The weather people I follow on Twitter are saying it is going to be pretty rough for you for the next few hours. 

I live in the Midwest US and know what tornadoes and high winds can do. I’ll be thinking about you tonight! If the wind sounds like a train then get down to the lowest place you can find ASAP!

Hopefully this storm will pass you by. Our thoughts will be with you tonight!

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5124 on: August 20, 2020, 05:42:09 AM »
 silly question .. would the weather models have any concept of how wet the ice is atm ? If they see it like piomass sees it they may be surprised by developments .  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5125 on: August 20, 2020, 05:54:29 AM »
What is that circular pattern showing west and slightly north of Prince Patrick Island on the northern side of the Beaufort?!  We don't have any storms there right now do we?

BTW it shows 8/16 pass in the snapshot but in Sentinel it showed 8/18 in the vicinity of the circular pattern.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 06:05:34 AM by ArcTickTock »

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5126 on: August 20, 2020, 06:27:33 AM »
Nice view of the Laptev bite from 08/16.  Might be a little bit o' melt going on here.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5127 on: August 20, 2020, 06:47:56 AM »
Well Friv, 3rd was always, and still is a much better chance than getting down to 2-2.5m.

Easy ice  in Chukchi is mostly gone, top melt season is nearly over, and bottom melt season should be poor as the ice was so compact during the bulk of the hotter part of summer.  Lots of heat went into the ocean, but safely well outside the current ice pack where it will put a big delay on refreeze but play no part in bottom melt season.

There is a 2 day average on ADS extent, and maybe another couple days of big drops with the easy ice, so 2020 should be 2nd soon, but not with a big enough lead to guarantee that a slowdown won't put it back in 3rd, depending on how much it gets a push from the weather, with wind driven compaction probably the biggest wild card.


WOW the changes on the Breman concentration graphics are getting scary.

Not as bad as 2012 on the Pacific side.

Maybe it's knowing how much heat has hit the arctic basin.

You can visibly see where the fog was yesterday that ran across the far Southern CAB.

Thanks to clearing and the ice quickly thinning all over CONCENTRATION is dropping all over as well.


FULL DISCLOSURE...

I admit the thought that 2020 might end up free falling past 2012 and settling somewhere between 2-2.5 million km2 on jaxa with ice volume about 60-70 percent of 2012s volume min is starting to become a real possible outcome.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5128 on: August 20, 2020, 06:54:38 AM »
Freegrass, I think you’re missing how the energy is transferred: it doesn’t happen by heating up the melt ponds and then having a thermal transfer into the ice or water, it happens by the melt ponds acting as lenses, so the solar energy instead of bouncing off the white snow, passes through the clear melt pond, through the relatively clear ice, and into the water underneath.

I don't think that this is how it works. The whole point about albedo of water being so much lower than ice (by a factor of 10 or so) is that water absorbs much more of the incoming radiation than does ice.

Because of albedo the ice under the melt pond recieves substantially less radiation than the surrounding ice. So I cannot see your explanation holding up at all. The water absorbs the energy and transfers it to the underlying ice at a steady rate, pegging the actual temperature at very close to the melting point of the underlying ice.

Same goes for a pot of water on a stove. If you put a handful of icecubes in the water, it will stay at 0C or near enough after you turn on the stove, and until the ice has melted. This is not because the water acts as a lense for the incoming heat from the stove, but because heat transfer in water at that scale is very efficient, and ice takes a hell of a lot of energy to melt.

Quote
Many of the melt ponds in that photo have melted right through the ice too, so they’re essentially open water now.

The image shows many melt ponds, a fair degre of leads with open water, and a few meltponds that obviously connect to open water. It's all in the colour of the water. And you can see the crumbled ice that Polarstern has left in it's past stretching up and to the left.

It should be possible to estimate the thickness of the ice surrounding the Polarstern based on this photo, I'd make a guess of an average thickness of 0.5 meters, not more. Which obviously does not fit with the thickness charts we have been seing from PIOMAS.

All in all it's a shocking photo - extreme melting obviously still ongoing, no compression of floes in spite of constant pack movement, and ice that is obviously a lot thinner than I would have expected.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5129 on: August 20, 2020, 06:57:13 AM »
I thought this was interesting.  Aug 19 AMSR2 with the recent tracks of the satellite superimposed.  Notice that the Beaufort donut has high concentration on this view on the Southern side that does not match latest Bremen.

slow wing

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5130 on: August 20, 2020, 07:04:09 AM »
Couple of visual predictions for the potential storm: NAVGEM model & Nullschool wind display (uses GFS model).

NAVGEM shows it bottoming out north of Svalbard and at 979 mbar, in the 108-hour prediction.

Nullschool shows 93 km/h winds just north of Greenland, at 0000Z on 2020/08/25!  :o

Potential for a crazy finish to the melt season. Let's see if this eventuates.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 07:17:55 AM by slow wing »

Killian

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5131 on: August 20, 2020, 07:18:15 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

7th

Quote
2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th

7th. Oops.

Quote
then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Now this should be interesting... Seeing 50k, can I get a 60? Going once, going twice...

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5132 on: August 20, 2020, 07:26:22 AM »
HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.
<snip>
I've been watching for the last several days to see how it was going to evolve.  It appears to be getting more definite.

Both models have had that low rattling around the Barents for all of their recent runs.  It's only just the most recent that have pushed the pressure below 980.

Rain and wind over the Atlantic side, which among other things may tend to compact things and ship them in the direction of the Fram.

Yeah, 2nd lowest is pretty certain if it hits, and it means there is still a chance at lowest.
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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5133 on: August 20, 2020, 07:33:44 AM »
Couple of visual predictions for the potential storm: NAVGEM model & Nullschool wind display (uses GFS model).

NAVGEM shows it bottoming out north of Svalbard and at 979 mbar, in the 108-hour prediction.

Nullschool shows 93 km/h winds just north of Greenland, at 0000Z on 2020/08/25!  :o

Potential for a crazy finish to the melt season. Let's see if this eventuates.

So there is some forecasting out there for a rain band to sweep across the Atlantic side of the CAB all the way to the NP in association with this 24-26 Aug low apparently.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5134 on: August 20, 2020, 07:46:00 AM »
HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.
<snip>
I've been watching for the last several days to see how it was going to evolve.  It appears to be getting more definite.

Both models have had that low rattling around the Barents for all of their recent runs.  It's only just the most recent that have pushed the pressure below 980.

Rain and wind over the Atlantic side, which among other things may tend to compact things and ship them in the direction of the Fram.

Yeah, 2nd lowest is pretty certain if it hits, and it means there is still a chance at lowest.

And you didn't even mention the sunny WAA over Beaufort which is far enough South for another 10 days of effective solar insolation melt.

Plus very warm ESE winds...

Tomorrow 2020 is going to drop below 2019 on JAXA and it won't be passed up again until after the minimum.

Another -120,000K today.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5135 on: August 20, 2020, 07:54:33 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5136 on: August 20, 2020, 07:55:40 AM »
August 13-19.

2019.

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5137 on: August 20, 2020, 08:03:38 AM »
The concentration above Greenland is looking as rotten as ever. If that storm does appear and is as intense as predicted in the latest runs, I wonder what the effects in that triangle between northern Greenland and the pole will be. Nothing good I assume.


aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5138 on: August 20, 2020, 09:50:19 AM »
silly question .. would the weather models have any concept of how wet the ice is atm ? If they see it like piomass sees it they may be surprised by developments .  b.c.

No they don't, sea ice is parametrized in the models with fixed constants. It would be way to complex to explicitly model the sea ice for a weather model running every six hours. And yes, models can be underestimating cyclogenesis, which is no news. But this is not only a problem with sea ice. Cyclogenesis is a complex process and is hard to forecast. But in the Arctic, with all the changes ongoing, this is worst, yes. As a side note, models are again forecasting explicitly thunderstorms above the boundary layer on the Atlantic and Pacific side. I did not fully check the models from 00Z today, but IFS or ARP are going on for over 30 millimeters of rain (and rain, no sleet or snow) in 24h for Franz Joseph Land this week-end ! This is crazy. And even up to 85°N, they are going with thunderstorms and a good 20 mm per 24 hours. Sea ice on the Atlantic side is going to be wash out.

For Beaufort Sea, as already said, the warm air advection on the flank of the anticyclone is going to be bad. Even though there is no deep low, there is enough pressure gradient for some significant winds (field of 15 - 25 kts), and with the help of Coriolis, with the fetch of open waters, etc... Waves are going to be pretty significant for the Arctic, from the south east to the south (wave period up to 6  to 8 seconds). This not a big event, but again locally and given the sore state of sea ice in this corner of the Arctic, and the fact that there is a lot to loss, etc... Beaufort Sea is likely to continue its nose dive in the coming days.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 09:57:10 AM by aslan »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5139 on: August 20, 2020, 09:57:00 AM »
Latest daily sea ice change

Some ice has re-appeared in the Chukchi sea, but the main feature is the compaction across the Beaufort/Chukchi, as show by the red along the edges and increased concentration. Similar is apparent along the Atlantic ice front
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5140 on: August 20, 2020, 10:02:47 AM »
Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
When we are all looking at the side effects of the melted Arctic will some people be saying well at least my JAXA prediction was right.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5141 on: August 20, 2020, 10:11:09 AM »
That is the ridiculous all about. Similarly, many scientists are excited to publish their findings on Nature, Science etc. when COVID-19 comes. They may be promoted from that. They spend much time to find the problem, to precisely predict it rather than solve the problem.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5142 on: August 20, 2020, 10:17:21 AM »
Latest daily sea ice change

Some ice has re-appeared in the Chukchi sea.
That ice is certainly there. This kind of foam ice appears to be giving grief to the satellite algorithm.
Click to enlarge.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5143 on: August 20, 2020, 11:08:11 AM »
The ice is already DOA.

So why cry over spilt milk???

There is nothing to solve.  Just observe the horror.
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wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5144 on: August 20, 2020, 11:22:56 AM »
Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
When we are all looking at the side effects of the melted Arctic will some people be saying well at least my JAXA prediction was right.

Would suggest that most are so tired of trying for years to get those in power, to put the right policies and steps in place to address the issue.  Sadly, nothing that goes on from the science side is likely to have the required impact, unless there is an 'Armageddon" like event. So maybe the sooner the better. FRIV alluded to this, earlier in the season.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5145 on: August 20, 2020, 11:43:30 AM »
In July the cyclone forecasted to be much weaker than it was. Correct forecast appeared 2-3 days before event.

JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5146 on: August 20, 2020, 12:11:21 PM »
In July the cyclone forecasted to be much weaker than it was. Correct forecast appeared 2-3 days before event.

Correct, I followed the July one in carefully and it swung wildly 5 days out to 3 days out. From practically being a good storm on day 5, Day 4 it was almost saying it would not occur. Then from day 3 in it was a certainty and strengthened there on in.

The forecasted predictions will still swing wildly over the next 48 hours and the actuality of it happening. 12 hours on from my post last night the storm is still in place but has weakened to appx 980. I have watched the systems now coming in for 10 days and I think we now have a 50% chance of having one. Give it another 12 hours and we can begin to predict with a higher chance of probability of another Arctic storm.

How strong it becomes right now is a flip of a coin and may just fade away. I just think at this time of the season we could do with avoiding one. One to keep people interested in the Arctic weather the next few days for sure.


oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5147 on: August 20, 2020, 12:14:31 PM »
To all, please disregard the morals of statements hoping or fearing ice demise. This thread is about reporting the accurate state of the ice this season. What people hope or fear doesn't matter, the Arctic will do what the Arctic will do. If some wish to discuss the morals, which is a worthy subject in itself, this would best be done in a separate thread.
If it helps anyone to know, in general, the official position of the forum is that the ice melt=bad, ice retention=good. But people are free to post their value judgements as they see fit, as long as that is not the focus of their posts and as long as meta-discussions are avoided.

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5148 on: August 20, 2020, 12:19:43 PM »
Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
When we are all looking at the side effects of the melted Arctic will some people be saying well at least my JAXA prediction was right.

Would suggest that most are so tired of trying for years to get those in power, to put the right policies and steps in place to address the issue.  Sadly, nothing that goes on from the science side is likely to have the required impact, unless there is an 'Armageddon" like event. So maybe the sooner the better. FRIV alluded to this, earlier in the season.

Frivolousz21 is right. Anyway, it's now too late to change anything and hope for improvement. BAU will have killed us. Let's keep doing what we're doing here, at least we still have that elegance there.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5149 on: August 20, 2020, 01:15:32 PM »
Future forecasts are changing hourly, there is a forecast for 101 km/h winds over North Greenland on the 25th August.