The 2020 melting season

[BornFromTheVoid]

Updated version (improved colour scheme) of the comparison between the extent and concentration changes for the first 3 weeks of August.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

[wallen]

A tad off subject, but I would like to give credit to Oren, for his handling of the Moderator position during this melt season. I am sure at times he may have felt that Neven handed him a stick of dynamite. At times the comments this season have been fair contentious, but I think Oren has reigned with the required fairness and discipline.

Thank you Oren.

[ArcticMelt2]

I think that the fact that 2020 seems to be coming in second is almost as scary as if it were heading for a record. 2012 was a freak, but each normal year is getting lower and eventually we will pass 2012, even if there is not another cyclone or something.

There is no doubt that there will be at least second place. But there are chances that it will be below 2012, I think 30 percent.

[gandul]

A tad off subject, ...

Yes it’s quite off topic, send your hearts and kisses in the forum thread, please

[binntho]

A tad off subject, but I would like to give credit to Oren, for his handling of the Moderator position during this melt season. I am sure at times he may have felt that Neven handed him a stick of dynamite. At times the comments this season have been fair contentious, but I think Oren has reigned with the required fairness and discipline.

Thank you Oren.

Totally agree!

[oren]

Thanks for the fine words folks, but let's focus on the ice.

[SimonF92]

I think that the fact that 2020 seems to be coming in second is almost as scary as if it were heading for a record. 2012 was a freak, but each normal year is getting lower and eventually we will pass 2012, even if there is not another cyclone or something.

+1

Though i do think the Siberian side was pretty "freaky" this year

[bbr2315]

Oh dear. 00z EURO. D1->D10.

It looks like the CAA Garlic Press / Nares Export are really going to kick into force by D10. At this point it looks like the ice pack will be collapsing towards these directions by September 1st.

This could result in a continued rapid northward retreat of the ice edge through mid or even late September, IMO. The ice heading towards Nares is being obliterated in the Lincoln Sea so the FRAM kill zone now extends all the way to the North Pole. There is no real export anymore in that region right now because it is all melting in-situ all the way to 90N....

I don't see why the northward drift will not continue until the Lincoln is fully ice-covered again. How much volume will be lost to this end? It will be A LOT, IMO. And extent and area are going to follow, it seems....

[Paul]

I think that the fact that 2020 seems to be coming in second is almost as scary as if it were heading for a record. 2012 was a freak, but each normal year is getting lower and eventually we will pass 2012, even if there is not another cyclone or something.

+1

Though i do think the Siberian side was pretty "freaky" this year

Lack of fast ice and thick ice in general on the Siberian side coupled with record early snow melt in Siberia has no doubt played a part in this melting season with record retreat of ice in the Siberian regions(ESS, Laptev and Kara). The persistent high pressure in July did not help because its orientation favoured compaction of the ice towards the pole but that meant the winds was pushing the ice edge further and further northwards.

[gandul]

The Beaufort sea ice has become relatively cloud free yesterday and today for a good shot using worldview. A significant amount of this broken melange is gonna survive the season.

[igs]

First 3 weeks of August.

Damn great graphs and gifs of yours coming up lately, a real value for comparison and developments.

[D-Penguin]

Updated version (improved colour scheme) of the comparison between the extent and concentration changes for the first 3 weeks of August.

Yep - I think you have got it spot on this time! A great comparative tool.

+1 for persistence and hard work to improve what was already a useful visual presentation of the data

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

The forecast for the coming hours just went from bad to worse for the ice in between the pole and the laptev, with winds forecasted now to blow harder than 40 km/h.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/08/24/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304/loc=106.644,84.516

[Lord M Vader]

Agree, a lot of that ice in Beaufort Sea will survive but a significant part don't. Given that the ice is located around 73°N there will still be a decent amount of sunshine and melting, primarily from bottom melting, a few more weeks until refreezing starts.

[oren]

The forecast for the coming hours just went from bad to worse for the ice in between the pole and the laptev, with winds forecasted now to blow harder than 40 km/h.

And a new little cyclone appears above Greenland in 3 days time. It seems the energy is there and the models keep making cyclones, eventually one will hit where it shouldn't.

[igs]

The situation as per tonight, about 3 hours ago:

[UCMiami]

Today WV image of the MClure is clear and transformation from clogged with large blocks of ice to clearing with only small rubble is impressive. In addition some of that ice is being exported down the Prince of Wales and melting before it exits.

Not sure how accurate the Nullschool SST temperatures are, but between the Beaufort ice and the Canadian/Alaskan coast they are showing readings between 7C and 10C so any movement in that ice will be bringing rather warm waters into play and its supposedly long term survival may be a mirage.

[uniquorn]

the situation as per tonight
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional (3.125 amsr2 and SSMIS)

[Paul]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

The forecast for the coming hours just went from bad to worse for the ice in between the pole and the laptev, with winds forecasted now to blow harder than 40 km/h.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/08/24/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304/loc=106.644,84.516

It's a funny one because if the winds were blowing the other way, it could be 'bad' for the ice because your pushing ice towards warmer waters and might start weakening it that way. It will be interesting to observe how the ice edge in the Laptev will react to gusty winds blowing in from the south.

[Freegrass]

The forecast for the coming hours just went from bad to worse for the ice in between the pole and the laptev, with winds forecasted now to blow harder than 40 km/h.

And a new little cyclone appears above Greenland in 3 days time. It seems the energy is there and the models keep making cyclones, eventually one will hit where it shouldn't.

All kinds of ugliness is showing up on the latest forecast. But things can change quickly as we've seen this week. We started with a monster storm, and ended up with a little breeze. But I think you are right that it's only a matter of time before something ugly hits. By which I'm not saying that things won't be bad enough this week! That ice north of Ellesmere and Greenland is gonna get hammered hard in this latest forecast...

It's a funny one because if the winds were blowing the other way, it could be 'bad' for the ice because your pushing ice towards warmer waters and might start weakening it that way. It will be interesting to observe how the ice edge in the Laptev will react to gusty winds blowing in from the south.

Yes, blowing it into warm water is bad, but don't you think the pack will shrink a lot with those persistent northerlies southerlies? And don't forget the waves hitting the pack! How much do those waves eat away at the ice? Just look at how fast the Chukchi melted out. I believe a lot of that had to do with waves from all those little storms in the ESS and Chukchi sea.

[glennbuck]

Seems to be flipping up and down last few days sea ice thickness. Melt Ponds have been mentioned for this time of year, but the surface air temps and sea surface temps are higher and lasting longer into late August compared to the past seasons.

[oren]

A Worldview animation comparing the Beaufort on Aug7 and Aug23.
The ice has certainly been melting with significant open water showing between the floes, but in the race against time this ice can't clear out Chukchi-style before the minimum, barring some very extraordinary event (huge storm/persistent strong south winds/very late minimum).
Using the CT demarcation (Wipneus), NSIDC Beaufort area dropped from 170k to 117k during the similar period of Aug6-22, while UH AMSR2 area dropped from 250k to 137k.
Click to animate and enlarge.

[oren]

The same for the CAA M'Clure Strait, Viscount Melville Sound and McClintock Channel on Aug8 and Aug23.
Again, clearing out this ice in time for the minimum appears to be impossible.
NSIDC CAA area dropped from 258k to 195k during the similar period of Aug7-22, while UH AMSR2 area dropped from 225k to 167k.
Click.

[glennbuck]

This might explain the thin ice and melt ponds at the North Pole when the Polarstern arrived in August.

This chart helps to identify areas of densely packed isotherms (lines of equal temperature) indicating a front. Aside from this you can use the modeled temperature in 850 hPa (5000 ft a.s.l.) to make a rough estimate on the expected maximum temperature in 2m above the ground. However, this method does not apply to (winter) inversions.

'Temperatures further up in the atmosphere were less constrained by surface melting: the average temperature at the 850hPa pressure level was 6ºC over the North Pole in July 2020, more than 3ºC warmer than the previous warmest July value on record for this level and location.'

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2020

[Killian]

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

With respect, I challenge the idea, at this stage in the 2020 melt season, that stats are great and that patterns matter.

The stats are not representing an accurate picture and patterns only matter up to the point of a paradigm change in a sequence of events. I suggest that 2020 represents that paradigm change.

Thanks for repeating what I said.

;-)

(That post was pithy. I have made greater explanations previously. The idea is more general: Trends and patterns matter, too.)

[Aluminium]

August 19-23.

2019.

[binntho]

August 19-23.

2019.

Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Todays updates, with the categorised ice concentration now split into 8 groups spanning 12.5%

[BornFromTheVoid]

Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.

Thomas Lavergne on twitter posted a forecast animation of the sea ice based on the CMEMS data. Shows the ice reaching 85N.

https://twitter.com/lavergnetho/status/1297651841010892801

[ArcticMelt2]

Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.

Thomas Lavergne on twitter posted a forecast animation of the sea ice based on the CMEMS data. Shows the ice reaching 85N.

https://twitter.com/lavergnetho/status/1297651841010892801

Terrible. The chances that the 2012 record will be broken are growing.

[Paul]

Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.

Thomas Lavergne on twitter posted a forecast animation of the sea ice based on the CMEMS data. Shows the ice reaching 85N.

https://twitter.com/lavergnetho/status/1297651841010892801

Terrible. The chances that the 2012 record will be broken are growing.

I just can't see it, 2012 extent losses increases in the next few days and 2012 saw extreme atlantification during September which added to extent losses.

[ArcticMelt2]

Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.

Thomas Lavergne on twitter posted a forecast animation of the sea ice based on the CMEMS data. Shows the ice reaching 85N.

https://twitter.com/lavergnetho/status/1297651841010892801

Terrible. The chances that the 2012 record will be broken are growing.

I just can't see it, 2012 extent losses increases in the next few days and 2012 saw extreme atlantification during September which added to extent losses.

In 2012, by the end of August, all ice in the Beaufort Sea and the Canadian Archipelago was lost. Only due to this, future losses in 2020 could be higher by a million square kilometers.

[oren]

It is the opposite IMHO. Because 2020 had thicker ice in the Beaufort and the CAA at the end of winter, and because ice movement patterns this year were very different from 2012, 2020 is "stuck" with dispersed ice in these regions (far less than a million km2 though) and will have a very hard time catching up with 2012 extent-wise. Area and volume are a different story and the chances of catch-up are higher.

[Paul]

Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.

Thomas Lavergne on twitter posted a forecast animation of the sea ice based on the CMEMS data. Shows the ice reaching 85N.

https://twitter.com/lavergnetho/status/1297651841010892801

Terrible. The chances that the 2012 record will be broken are growing.

I just can't see it, 2012 extent losses increases in the next few days and 2012 saw extreme atlantification during September which added to extent losses.

In 2012, by the end of August, all ice in the Beaufort Sea and the Canadian Archipelago was lost. Only due to this, future losses in 2020 could be higher by a million square kilometers.

But between the date of that chart and mid September, the Atlantic and Laptev ice edge edged much further north which gave the continuous losses in 2012 during September.

We may see further retreat on the Atlantoc/Laptev edge this year due to the winds that are forecast of course but I just think the Beaufort ice and what survives of it will be enough to avoid record lows.

That said, the temperatures do look above average yet again and no real signs of the PV forming with that huge block in control.

[ArcticMelt2]

It is the opposite IMHO. Because 2020 had thicker ice in the Beaufort and the CAA at the end of winter, and because ice movement patterns this year were very different from 2012, 2020 is "stuck" with dispersed ice in these regions (far less than a million km2 though) and will have a very hard time catching up with 2012 extent-wise. Area and volume are a different story and the chances of catch-up are higher.

Recently said about the same thing about ice in the Chukchi Sea. But the ice melted anyway, and even overtook 2012.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1297566066688712706

Chukchi Sea ice extent now lowest in the satellite era for this point in autumn (@NSIDC  data) with near record rapid #seaice loss (Aug 2012 slightly greater). Big diffs btwn multi-sensor @NWSAlaska  analyses & passive microwave common in Aug

[grixm]

Looks like daily NSIDC area is back below 2012 to a record for this date

[ArcticMelt2]

But between the date of that chart and mid September, the Atlantic and Laptev ice edge edged much further north which gave the continuous losses in 2012 during September.

We may see further retreat on the Atlantoc/Laptev edge this year due to the winds that are forecast of course but I just think the Beaufort ice and what survives of it will be enough to avoid record lows.

That said, the temperatures do look above average yet again and no real signs of the PV forming with that huge block in control.

In 2012, the edge dropped to the 85th parallel. IMHO, this year the edge will go down to at least 86 parallel.

[binntho]

In 2012, the edge dropped to the 85th parallel. IMHO, this year the edge will go down to at least 86 parallel.

I'm not seeing the ice edge north of the 85th on this image?

[gandul]

Check 2014 and 2016 although not strictly in the Atlantic side but more the Laptev side.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

[igs]

All true but the question was about the Atlantic side and it didn't happen, far from it.

Laptev bite did it a few times but that's common knowledge and out of question.

BTW, looking at daily differences in the beaufort, provided not significant weather change, that ice is definitely headed towards oblivion. A few chunks may survive but then they won't count towards the bigger picture (overall outcome.

CAA will make a difference eventually and as someone said: Potential losses are quite high, several 100km2 and if that happens, all depends on the weather, we could end up very close to 2012, meaning slightly below or slightly above (+/- 200km2)

Last but not least, as expected, a series of later starting storms will hit form various sides and while the exact paths and strength might differ from the forecast, that they will occur is out of question for me and in this case it doesn't matter much to achieve above mentioned outcome of kind of tie with 2012.

[Thomas Barlow]

Arctic basin, 2nd lowest.

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png?attachauth=ANoY7cpnYC3CV5RgM6-bXKS4J10RpicgYmtB1Go1CDDKlftvVB23gNgDGwEzGoblToDXFMe6FB_GB4jzebRZfVgGOcl6Qs4M6Yj042BXeB4BXqrahkSCRvkU3cRNOKpuyW1uqg-E2K67hxUKKrNrDoCXSYCck2PQg3929ErrkRQCYFQjV-Rb62Y0iOV2HvR_kbQR4tLpMmTJcPaad3lUE9YP9AZ7dc0VB6_GuSy9Z-6dii2UbotUXP2SkXHGIVTyVO-2EPF8GUVt&attredirects=0

[igs]

Watch this: Windspeed, temps and waves on a large front.


This and all the other nasty looming stuff could surprise us still, now that we think the end (of the melting season) is near. The term "end" could well change it's meaning over the next 10 days.


Many of us know too well what above 0C heavy winds can do to 1-2 meters of snow and 20-30cm of ice, let's just hope that most of the ice is, even though fragmented, significantly thicker than that.

[Freegrass]

Yes, blowing it into warm water is bad, but don't you think the pack will shrink a lot with those persistent northerlies southerlies? And don't forget the waves hitting the pack! How much do those waves eat away at the ice? Just look at how fast the Chukchi melted out. I believe a lot of that had to do with waves from all those little storms in the ESS and Chukchi sea.

I just made a correction to a major error from last night. It should have been persistent southerlies of course. Sorry about that! But what about my claim? Igs just posted wave height, so will waves and compaction help us break the record?

Southerlies also bring with it another problem. With Northerlies the water would start to cool down about now, but all we get is more warm air extending the surface melt season.

The freezing season will be as interesting as the melting season I guess...

[ArcticMelt2]

In 2012, the edge dropped to the 85th parallel. IMHO, this year the edge will go down to at least 86 parallel.

I'm not seeing the ice edge north of the 85th on this image?

The ice edge in 2012 touches the 85th parallel in two places: north of the New Siberian Islands and north of the Franz Josef Islands. I said about dropped to this latitude, not crossing it.

[Aluminium]

This melting season ends possibly with a grand finale. There is still enough warmth and vulnerable ice for something spectacular.

[binntho]

In 2012, the edge dropped to the 85th parallel. IMHO, this year the edge will go down to at least 86 parallel.

I'm not seeing the ice edge north of the 85th on this image?

The ice edge in 2012 touches the 85th parallel in two places: north of the New Siberian Islands and north of the Franz Josef Islands. I said about dropped to this latitude, not crossing it.

True enough.

[UCMiami]

What strikes me most with graphs showing low years to minimum is the strength of the 2012 loses well into September and the late end to the melting season. There are years that crept to a later minimum, but there tail was was a very shallow decline. 2012 had a more average (as far as date) minimum, but it reached that point with a consistent rapid decline toward a rapid end.

This year certainly has everything still in play, but whether it can maintain significant declines into Sept. and how long and late the tail will be the ultimate determining factor.

While the CAA still retains a healthy amount of ice - the rapidity with which the ice losses have mounted is impressive in the last week or 10 days. How much resistance the remaining ice represents is hard to tell as the area has baked for most of this summer. It also, like Greenland represents a questionable picture as to some degree the final ice extent, area, and volume depend as much on ice exported from the CAB as on its own 'native' ice. Depending on wind and current there is now quite an area of open water that could accept ice exported from the CAB.

I am also quite interested in the patterns emerging in the weather forecasts - the amount of heat stored in the Northern Hemisphere south of the arctic during this summer is impressive and is driving significant cyclonic storms in the northern Atlantic, northern Pacific and even over the northern Asian and NA land masses - while these tend to disperse/weaken as the reach the ice edge they still are transporting heat north and stirring the pot. If this continues the melt tail may indeed be stronger than in most previous years.