The 2020 melting season

[marcel_g]

Looking at the wind and temperature forecasts, it looks like it's going to be windy on the Atlantic and Laptev sides, with a lot of above freezing air, at least to 5 days out, and from days 6-10 (if it holds) there is also a lot of wind, but large areas get much colder, especially between Greenland and the NP.

My guess is that both area and extent will go down for about a week as the ice edge gets pushed in from the Atlantic side, but the ice will also be pushed into the gaps north of Greenland, so unless a lot of that ice actually melts out from bottom melt within the next week or so, extent and area will start to go up in that zone, and probably most of the Central Arctic Sea, even if the ice is basically slush. After a week, even if the winds are dispersing the ice, melt ponds and leads will start to freeze over between Greenland and the NP, and much of the other areas too.

This will be offset to some extent by continued melting in the Beaufort, but I'm not sure how much of the Beaufort will drop below the 15% threshold, and the Beaufort is much smaller than the central sea, so I'm not sure how much it matters to overall numbers.

It'll be very interesting watching the race between bottom melting and new ice forming. I'm guessing 2nd place in extent, and a small chance of 1st place in area. 2020 does feel different than 2012 though: the ice is in such bad shape everywhere, and that whole zone between Greenland and the NP is unprecedented and gobsmacking.

[ArcticMelt2]

I don't think much of the ice in Beaufort will survive. Cryosat-2 did not show much thick multiyear ice there this spring. The situation is similar in the Greenland Sea and the Canadian Archipelago.

[Tor Bejnar]

Latest daily images.
...

Map reminds me of the old blue-red Wip maps I liked so much.  Love what you've done.

One detail:   the shades of decrease/increase scale shows 'grey' (or is it 'gray'?) in the +/- ~10% region, but the map shows white.

[UCMiami]

I believe very little of the extent loss in the CAB is currently tied to anything other than the retreat of the ice edge on the Atlantic front and the incursions north of both the Laptev and Chukchi fronts - the leads interior to the CAB I think are mostly being recorded as above the 15% threshold. If that is correct, the onset of freezing in the CAB will affect the area numbers but not have much affect on the extent numbers.

If the coming wind affects are to concentrate the ice toward the central pack and close leads, it should only increase the extent losses.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest daily images.
...

Map reminds me of the old blue-red Wip maps I liked so much.  Love what you've done.

One detail:   the shades of decrease/increase scale shows 'grey' (or is it 'gray'?) in the +/- ~10% region, but the map shows white.

I see what you mean. The map is light grey, but it appears dark grey in the scale. Will fix that, cheers!

[Thomas Barlow]

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

[Thomas Barlow]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

[GoSouthYoungins]

Does anyone know the record low for Greenland Sea ice?

I think that Greenland Sea ice is headed pretty close to zero in a month.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

[Burnrate]

Latest Five Day Forecast
...

Looks like there will finally be a storm on the north coast of Greenland tomorrow.  It is showing some sustained 30-40 knot winds coming from the west.  Hopefully the forecast for less than 24 hours ahead will actually hold.  The Great Crack is going to get sloshed some more.

The ice is so open there I wonder if some extent losses will start to show up.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
...

Looks like there will finally be a storm on the north coast of Greenland tomorrow.  It is showing some sustained 30-40 knot winds coming from the west.  Hopefully the forecast for less than 24 hours ahead will actually hold.  The Great Crack is going to get sloshed some more.

The ice is so open there I wonder if some extent losses will start to show up.

The latest forecast shows the strongest winds for the Lincoln sea, so I'm curious to see if this will break up those very large floes that are still lingering there. My guess is that when that strong multi year ice gets broken up, that this will permanently weaken the mega crack into the following seasons?

[Burnrate]

The latest forecast shows the strongest winds for the Lincoln sea, so I'm curious to see if this will break up those very large floes that are still lingering there. My guess is that when that strong multi year ice gets broken up, that this will permanently weaken the mega crack into the following seasons?

I think you are right.  I believe that is the paradigm shift some people have mentioned.  What used to be the location of the thickest and oldest ice is now destroyed.  All the extent and area metrics aren't really doing it justice.  Maybe the beige pixels convey it best.

Without that thick ice next year the arctic may have an entirely new side (Pacific, Atlantic, Asian, American) for melt to progress from.  There will be (more/earlier) exposed water above the CAA and Greenland, the ice will be able to move more easily, more wind and waves, less to export into the Beaufort, and a lower albedo.

It will be interesting to see how much ice will get piled up there this winter to resist the change.

[glennbuck]

Predictions for the seasonal 2m Temps anomaly, Sep, Oct, Nov, Arctic 2C to 4C anomaly, will be interesting to see the effects for the remaining melt for the season and the ice growth in Oct, Nov, if predictions are correct.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/27/6/2185/34842/The-NCEP-Climate-Forecast-System-Version-2

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

[Tony Mcleod]

Predictions for the seasonal 2m Temps anomaly, Sep, Oct, Nov, Arctic 2C to 4C anomaly, will be interesting to see the effects for the remaining melt for the season and the ice growth in Oct, Nov.

Could please post the url link for that graph, cheers.

[interstitial]

Reminder Hycom thickness shows Ice down to 1% concentration

[gandul]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

This model and the navy model should be under moderation for unscientific, or sloppy research at best.

On other topic, I am starting to believe the “fractional ice” idea as a transition in 2020 could be something, but it has to lead to an absolute number one in NSIDC area this year, and the SMOS beige pixels have to show a ridiculously low number well into september.

Otherwise it is CAB refreezing as usual and what’s the real difference with EIGHT years ago...

[Freegrass]

DMI just dropped below freezing point. The first record of the season is in the books.

[oren]

On other topic, I am starting to believe the “fractional ice” idea as a transition in 2020 could be something, but it has to lead to an absolute number one in NSIDC area this year, and the SMOS beige pixels have to show a ridiculously low number well into september.

Otherwise it is CAB refreezing as usual and what’s the real difference with EIGHT years ago...

The original comment by A-Team discussed "fractional BOE" in that the ice in the center of the CAB was covered by extensive melt ponds and had very low albedo during the summer, hence partially achieved one of the biggest impacts of BOE - the enhanced absorption of solar energy during peak insolation. The damage has already been done, and surface refreezing in September will not fix it. It's the same as with a full BOE, eventually winter will come and ice cover will resume again, but the climate disruption has already happened.

[Burnrate]

Predictions for the seasonal 2m Temps anomaly, .....

Looks similar to this.  Very much like the GHG change and some of the aerosol removal change added together.  The aerosol reduction matches up with the higher temps over Asia and some places in North America.

Their image of the change from aerosol reduction is from a complete removal of human created aerosols which is obviously not what happened this year.  It looks like the aerosol impacts are present but much less than what they present as would be expected.


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017GL076079

[oren]

Another animation of the Chukchi and Beaufort, this time using the Bremen AMSR2 regional maps over the last 3 weeks. Judging by the way the process progressed in the Chukchi, and by the bad state the Beaufort ice appears to be in, it certainly seems possible that the Beaufort could still clear out or at least drop sharply before the minimum, although Worldview gives me a different impression.
Not much long to wait...

Click.

[sedziobs]

My guess is that when that strong multi year ice gets broken up, that this will permanently weaken the mega crack into the following seasons?

The ice between Greenland and the pole is very likely to be exported over the winter. I don't think anything that happens to the ice there right now will have any effect on future seasons. If the "mega crack" persists or grows, it will be due to the underlying processes causing it, not the state of the ice in that position at end of the current melt season.

[Aluminium]

August 21-25.

2019.

[slow wing]

August 25th is one of the year-to-year comparison dates for the U Bremen ASI (from AMSR2) false colour concentration maps, see attached figure. Shown are this year, in the lower right corner, and seven of the previous low years. The other 8 recent years can be seen by clicking the link.

Most of the ice is in high concentration areas (purple), relative to some of the previous years (those showing more yellow), but the total extent is one of the lower ones. So the guessing game of which ice areas will disappear is mainly confined to the Beaufort ice. The ice north of Greenland still holds some interest though, and the Atlantic side may be pushed in by the forecast winds over the next few days.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

[Niall Dollard]

With snowfall expected just north of Greenland over the next few days I wonder what effect this will have, especially on Bremen concentration maps ? Will it give the illusion of an increase in ice concentration and/or extent in that area ? With temperatures only a little below zero, it is far too early for ice refreeze but will we see slowdowns and upticks when in reality what lies beneath is still melting for a few weeks yet ? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's todays maps, and a slow animation of the last 3 days.
Still haven't had much time to work on the new colour schemes, hopefully this weekend!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Also, it appears, nominally at least, the the DMI volume is now at a record low value having dropped below 2016 for the first time yesterday.

[binntho]

Here's todays maps, and a slow animation of the last 3 days.
Still haven't had much time to work on the new colour schemes, hopefully this weekend!

The animation is great!

[Poldergeist]

nothing that hasn't been said already, but well written.

 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/growing-underwater-heat-blob-speeds-demise-arctic-sea-ice?utm_campaign=NewsfromScience%3DTwitter%3DJHubbard#

[ArcticMelt2]

A new increase in ice loss is expected in the coming days

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[pikaia]

I know that the DMI site is not very highly regarded, but it is now showing the ice volume at a record low (just barely).

[Jontenoy]

Really great graph magnification BFTV.... Thank you
I think volume is probably the most important metric in judging decline and given that it is the lowest on record shows what a dire situation the Arctic is in.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

[oren]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

A mess is coming up above the Fram, will it happen this time? It does seem so.

[gandul]

On other topic, I am starting to believe the “fractional ice” idea as a transition in 2020 could be something, but it has to lead to an absolute number one in NSIDC area this year, and the SMOS beige pixels have to show a ridiculously low number well into september.

Otherwise it is CAB refreezing as usual and what’s the real difference with EIGHT years ago...

The original comment by A-Team discussed "fractional BOE" in that the ice in the center of the CAB was covered by extensive melt ponds and had very low albedo during the summer, hence partially achieved one of the biggest impacts of BOE - the enhanced absorption of solar energy during peak insolation. The damage has already been done, and surface refreezing in September will not fix it. It's the same as with a full BOE, eventually winter will come and ice cover will resume again, but the climate disruption has already happened.

Thanks for the clarification. If that’s the case, the deregulation of temperature (de-anchoring to melting temp) is not achieved by this fractional melting, and that’s the number one impact of BOE in my opinion, but let’s leave it at that.
The implication for this melting season is that full melting will not be achieved but we could observe a delay in surface freezing in parts of the CAB if amount of melt ponds is overwhelming. Also, the implication in ice quality for next year should be obvious, but I still see these effects as a few notchs more in a gradual decline, not transitions.

[binntho]

... but I still see these effects as a few notchs more in a gradual decline, not transitions.

Agree, if a BOE can be fractional then it is more properly a BONE (Blue Ocean Non-Event).

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

A mess is coming up above the Fram, will it happen this time? It does seem so.

It sure looks that way. The strength has gone down a little since yesterday, but it lingers a little longer along the coast. But overall I think the damage will be minimal. Some ice will move and big floes will break up I guess, but it won't be the disaster that it could have been.

That new storm is also already weakening, so I'm getting a little frustrated here. How am I supposed to win that prediction challenge now? 

[Thomas Barlow]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

This model and the navy model should be under moderation for unscientific, or sloppy research at best.

There is a large margin of error in all the models, and expecting precise measurements from other sources is a fantasy.
As in most sciences, there is nothing in the Arctic other than generalisations.

(and I trust the Danish work over the Americans. :-))

[Thomas Barlow]

Also, it appears, nominally at least, the the DMI volume is now at a record low value having dropped below 2016 for the first time yesterday.

It's about the same as 2012 for that model. Of course, all models are very fuzzy, but it looks like it could go lower, and add that to the low extent right now, and the rubble everywhere, not as much fast ice, could ensure 2nd lowest extent on record by mid-Sept.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projection: none produce a minimum below 2012. The average melt rate would place 2020 at 2nd lowest and the slowest (2017) would result in 3rd lowest. 19/20 produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record.
We are currently 1,089,000 km² above the 2012 minimum. To equal the record, losses would need to average 49,500 km² per day from now until September 16th (2012 minimum date).
The previous record large loss for this period was 31,200 km² per day in 2010.

[Thomas Barlow]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

Otherwise it is CAB refreezing as usual

Are you sure?

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png?attachauth=ANoY7coD_YREjmnm1gqcTD701GoL2w0WPSgUpyKgRGVmI5oEWW41xnUb098pRyNvDfBWLi6Zlpl4HWv8exK_6zkrbhogTDY0-5MwpUWv-j78uEYRk_Nr9g-TGx4VpNcYDoRflFXkNaDXESjFu6ShfgR-Twa3Wha8H4s70OQe1P59Bedu-q6PaGOWjvkGisU0rAPyb8dSaOGQE8DsMuV5qf1EuYBZ05vYzNrfz3FtQt47uzWh5QUxbOIqpkuhznmOQPDxjyoDogVl&attredirects=0

[Thomas Barlow]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

Otherwise it is CAB refreezing as usual and what’s the real difference with EIGHT years ago...

I would say these are an example of what the real difference from 8 years ago is.
Similar story elsewhere.

(I doubt 2012 will be beaten though. The storms of 2012 made a difference, but I also think 2012 was incorrectly analysed at the time. I think it would still be the lowest, but not that low. I suspect a large error in that years data from most sources, lowest no doubt, but incorrect results. Since all respectable modellers have admitted errors in past years, it is seems likely - Not hugely off, but not perfect. They may have got better in recent years. )

2012 & 2020 north of Ellesmere & Greenland.
2012 & 2020 Fram.

[oren]

Some notes:

Please don't get hung up on DMI volume. A model that sees volume min in Aug is clearly doing something wrong. I assume it is overly following NSIDC area, ignoring the physics of wet surfaces and melt ponds icing over. In any case, further discussion can be had in the DMI volume thread.

About "fractional BOE" I agree, it does not achieve the temp decoupling that will be the clearest signal of actual BOE.

Wherever water surface is fresh and cold and intermixed with some ice I expect relatively rapid initial refreeze. Thus a dispersed ice pack (as this year, and as 2016) will tend to have an easier/earlier initial refreeze than a compact ice pack and surrounding open water that had time to mix (as in 2012). Thus I expect we have approximately 2 weeks left before real area growth begins, though extent may continue to drop another week.

[SimonF92]

Here's todays maps, and a slow animation of the last 3 days.
Still haven't had much time to work on the new colour schemes, hopefully this weekend!

Dont burn yourself out, you are doing great work

[jdallen]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

This model and the navy model should be under moderation for unscientific, or sloppy research at best.

There is a large margin of error in all the models, and expecting precise measurements from other sources is a fantasy.
As in most sciences, there is nothing in the Arctic other than generalisations.

(and I trust the Danish work over the Americans. :-))

Taking what Thomas said a step further.

The exact numbers models are producing all have a fairly significant margin of error.   What they give us is an opportunity to apply measurement theory - each additional measurement we take over time gives us a better understanding of both that being measured and takes us closer to the true value.  (example: DMI 80N temperature - not necessarily representative of the entire Arctic, but has over years highlights increasing volatility in conditions at high latitude.)

But beyond that, when the same methods and data sources are used over time, even if the numbers are inexact, the consistency of the model gives us better understanding of how a system is changing. 

[gandul]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

This model and the navy model should be under moderation for unscientific, or sloppy research at best.

There is a large margin of error in all the models, and expecting precise measurements from other sources is a fantasy.
As in most sciences, there is nothing in the Arctic other than generalisations.

(and I trust the Danish work over the Americans. :-))

I was kidding. I’m an ass, that’s all.
As long as we all compare apples to apples...

[gandul]

Three thoughts:
-  there is still time for most of the Beaufort sea ice to diasappear (for sure the most solid blocks will be melting until October but the “foamy” areas are going to disappear earlier).
- really interesting forecast
- we should pay attention to the MOSAIC guys, how things are gonna be shaking under these winds.

[romett1]

A mess is coming up above the Fram, will it happen this time? It does seem so.

Latest 10m wind gust forecast for hours 51 - 75 GFS (Fri - Sat).
Some Fram export if true.

[gandul]

Some waves in Chukchi sea in about 5-6 days... interesting

[Thomas Barlow]

Thickness.
North of Greenland and CAA

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

This model and the navy model should be under moderation for unscientific, or sloppy research at best.

There is a large margin of error in all the models, and expecting precise measurements from other sources is a fantasy.
As in most sciences, there is nothing in the Arctic other than generalisations.

(and I trust the Danish work over the Americans. :-))

I was kidding. I’m an ass, that’s all.
As long as we all compare apples to apples...

👍