Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 1137660 times)

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5550 on: August 30, 2020, 01:56:54 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20378
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5551 on: August 30, 2020, 02:04:50 PM »
Huge increase in concentration in the Greenland sea in the last frame. A sudden cold spell that froze a bunch of melt pools?
It was snowing so probably this gave a better "ice" presentation of the surface to the satellite. Also melt ponds not frozen in depth but covered with some ice crystals.
I am with Oren + a bit of Fram ice export - the low over Svalbard.
Any ice being sent South is being sent to its doom.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

UCMiami

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 130
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5552 on: August 30, 2020, 03:23:07 PM »
I was focused on the ice on worldview images that I missed a fairly significant snow in the NE CAA - the land turned from green/brown to white sometime between the 23rd and 25th of August. It does not appear to have more than brushed as far east as the Western edge of Greenland at the southern end of the Nares.

Glen Koehler

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 931
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 738
  • Likes Given: 1413
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5553 on: August 30, 2020, 03:34:51 PM »
<snip>
That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.
      My vote for MVP of the 2020 melt season is the degradation of the CAA-Greenland-NP triangle.  What used to be the stronghold of MYI has been (almost) reduced to a rubble field.  Capped off by the Polarstern photos at the North Pole.  They went to see Santa Claus and (almost) nobody was home.  This has consequences.
      Another sentimental vote for that plucky ice hugging Severnaya Zemlya that refuses to die despite being bathed in warm water for weeks on end.  Will it survive the rest of melt season?
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 01:09:37 AM by Glen Koehler »
“What is at stake.... Everything, I would say." ~ Julienne Stroeve

Thomas Barlow

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5554 on: August 30, 2020, 04:00:49 PM »
<Complaints not here please. O>
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 04:06:21 PM by oren »

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20378
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5555 on: August 30, 2020, 04:27:36 PM »
My first and probable last look beyond the next 3-5 days.

My guess, that I will revisit over the coming days- either to preen or to eat crow, is as follows....

For the next 10 days or so a more or less continuous flow of warmish wettish air carried on a strongish air flow from the mid-Atlantic travelling on a broad front up the Greenland & Norwegian Seas. This will then be sent across the Central Arctic towards the CAA & Beaufort, maybe picking up some Siberian warmth on the way.

Result- the ice edge will breach 85 North on a wide front perhaps all the way from 30o East  to  75o East. Will this result in a record low Central Arctic Sea area & extent? Another hostage to fortune - YES.

What that means for the ESS, Beaufort & the CAA I do not have a clue, but my guess is that the Greenland Sea, despite current increases, will get a considerable additional melt in September.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 957
    • View Profile
    • Arctic sea ice data and graphs
  • Liked: 481
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5556 on: August 30, 2020, 04:32:13 PM »
SMOS remains lowest on record for the date, by a large margin.  This suggests there is still substantial surface melting going on.  Weather forecasts show colder air in the next few days, so presumably (hopefully) the curve will get back upward to more normal values for the time of year.



https://www.dropbox.com/s/010xfjx6wo90ysy/smos_weighted_2020.png


JAXA AMSR2 melt graphs show similar results: surface melting in August has been very strong this year.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extent-ratioC.png

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5557 on: August 30, 2020, 04:49:34 PM »
Today, the Laptev Sea has taken the second place in terms of the minimum extent (data NSIDC).

1. 2014    887 km2
2. 2020   4190 km2
3. 2018   9031 km2
4. 2013  11830 km2
5. 2011  14157 km2
6. 2012  21509 km2

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5558 on: August 30, 2020, 06:56:01 PM »
August 25-29.

2019.

That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.

It will be very interesting if you explain in more detail what you are thinking. I will learn for sure. I don't see anything special with Freegrass' wind video.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5559 on: August 30, 2020, 07:08:53 PM »
It will be very interesting if you explain in more detail what you are thinking. I will learn for sure. I don't see anything special with Freegrass' wind video.

See the drift map for the last 3 days. For the sixth time the ice breaks down to the 85th parallel.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5560 on: August 30, 2020, 08:45:44 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

ArcTickTock

  • New ice
  • Posts: 96
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 120
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5561 on: August 30, 2020, 11:34:04 PM »
Has anyone got any idea where I can read up the reasons for Arctic's Inverse stratification ?
Or can someone explain it here ?

Will try but am sure others can explain it better than I.  The simple explanation is that with a sufficient salinity difference and a temperature gradient that is not too great, cooler fresher water is less dense than warmer saltier water.  The arctic surface water is made fresher by precipitation, glacier runoff, iceberg and ice shelf melt water, river inflow (particularly over the shallow coastal shelf on the Siberian side) and also cycles of sea ice freeze and melt.

When seawater freezes it undergoes brine rejection as part of the crystallization process.  How this can be viewed is water molecules at the freezing point impact the undersurface of other water molecules that are frozen or freezing and some percentage (it is at the scale where quantum mechanics kicks in so the behaviour is statistical) surrender kinetic energy, stick and enter the solid state thus releasing latent heat.  Salt molecules are rejected in the process as not fitting into the crystalline structure.  However, as I understand it some slight amount of salt becomes trapped and encapsulated in freezing water particles and incorporated into the ice.  The rejected salt molecules create localized pockets of dense, very salty brine which rapidly sinks away into the depths.  The sea ice as a consequence is substantially freshened versus the water from which it formed.

When the sea ice subsequently melts the next melt season the resultant melt water creates a freshened lens of relatively cool less dense and salty water that floats on the warmer saltier currents below, much of which is North Atlantic surface currents that dive under the less dense Arctic Surface Water as they enter the Arctic proper, particularly once reaching the Nansen Basin which underlies the CAB on the Atlantic side where greater depth lends itself to more complex stratification.  A similar process occurs on the Pacific side to a lesser degree due to the narrowness of the Bering Strait.

As we are still undergoing a draw down of sea ice volume, freeze season extent is diminishing slower that melt season extent, and there is considerable ongoing glacier melt inflow, there is still plenty of freshened melt water each season to somewhat maintain the stratification.  The danger is that we will start to run out of non-Greenland glaciers at some point, the shallow Siberian side which is only 2% of Arctic water volume subsequently loses much of its freshening river and glacier inflow and these peripheral seas then see further extent and thickness reductions which lessens the brine rejection mechanism and a vicious feedback occurs where a saltier Arctic results in less sea ice formation, since saltier water freezes slower and at a lower temperature, which leads to a further increase in salinity and even less ice.  Looking at the pattern this year is worrying.

It gets worse, as I understand it the Arctic surface water in the CAB, specifically over the Amundsen Basin is only slightly less saline that the warmer Atlantic waters below which means it has always been on the razors edge of breaking down.  In the past this did not matter as the central arctic was proof against melting out.  But it is vulnerable, if it ever has a BOE it will start to mix with Atlantic surface water once no more fresh melt water is being added and that Atlantic water is much harder to refreeze.  That being said, we may see freshening of the CAB in the near term as more CAB melt starts to occur each year, delaying things a bit.  However models that suggest we may get a BOE every now and then in the future may be painting a too rosy picture.  BOEs likely create an environment that favors more BOEs, at some point it is probably a runaway phenomenon.

Often Distant

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5562 on: August 31, 2020, 01:13:41 AM »

Atlantic front hitting 85N on lastest worldview composite.
Climate change is exploited and exacerbated for unsustainable motor nuisance scooters and bikes to block street access across most cities. It only ever gets worse. Heavier than people. Wider than footpaths. Carelessly declared child toys in NZ. Terminable batteries explode toxic emissions on expiry.

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5563 on: August 31, 2020, 01:38:39 AM »
The latest forecasts continue to show very strong poleward winds from the Barents Sea intensifying through Day 4 or 5, and then continuing into next week (beyond the range of reliable forecasts, though).

ArcTickTock

  • New ice
  • Posts: 96
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 120
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5564 on: August 31, 2020, 01:51:24 AM »
The latest forecasts continue to show very strong poleward winds from the Barents Sea intensifying through Day 4 or 5, and then continuing into next week (beyond the range of reliable forecasts, though).

Other sources seem to confirm what you are saying Greenbelt, and suggest this could intensify from the Laptev side.  If so extent will probably be negatively affected.  The Greenland gap may close up but NSIDC was not showing much open there anyway, however, the Barents thru Laptev region may get compacted poleward and that should show in the official numbers.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5565 on: August 31, 2020, 03:03:27 AM »
This is a weird breakup. Can this be because of wave action?
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5566 on: August 31, 2020, 03:05:52 AM »
Excellent explanation of Arctic Ocean's stratification under threat, thanks ArcTickTock! Excerpt with my bolding ...

...
It gets worse, as I understand it the Arctic surface water in the CAB, specifically over the Amundsen Basin is only slightly less saline that the warmer Atlantic waters below which means it has always been on the razors edge of breaking down.  In the past this did not matter as the central arctic was proof against melting out.  But it is vulnerable, if it ever has a BOE it will start to mix with Atlantic surface water once no more fresh melt water is being added and that Atlantic water is much harder to refreeze.  That being said, we may see freshening of the CAB in the near term as more CAB melt starts to occur each year, delaying things a bit.  However models that suggest we may get a BOE every now and then in the future may be painting a too rosy picture.  BOEs likely create an environment that favors more BOEs, at some point it is probably a runaway phenomenon.

This year at least, it seems the thicker CAB ice is being literally blown away -- in the direction of Alaska. So the ice reservoir of fresh water in the CAB is being partially removed by transport, not just mixed with saline water. (See screenshot figure below.)

What is the relative importance of ice transport (also through the Fram Strait) in this process?

(Yes, aware this is getting a bit detailed for this thread -- but the transport of the thicker ice does seem to be a notable feature of this melt season.)

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5567 on: August 31, 2020, 03:10:27 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 387
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5568 on: August 31, 2020, 05:06:43 AM »
This is a weird breakup. Can this be because of wave action?

Perhaps that, along with mostly bottom melt, acting on large sheets formed at the start of the last freezing season, over an area of partially melted large floes of second-year ice?   (Might explain the rapid breakup into large-floes with rounded edges?)

   

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5569 on: August 31, 2020, 06:01:24 AM »
See the drift map for the last 3 days. For the sixth time the ice breaks down to the 85th parallel.

Thank you for the image, the drift that is happening is impressive.

It's just that I wonder how low Neven thinks 2020 will be. And the truth is, the drift took me by surprise. Anyway, Neven was talking about a 5 day forecast, so I think he wants to wait to see if the forecast is corroborated.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 878
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5570 on: August 31, 2020, 06:30:32 AM »
Excellent explanation ATT! I've got one small niggle:

Salt molecules are rejected in the process as not fitting into the crystalline structure.  However, as I understand it some slight amount of salt becomes trapped and encapsulated in freezing water particles and incorporated into the ice. 

I don't think the brine pockets that are so common in fresh sea ice are "encapsulated in freezing water particles and incorporated into the ice". The brine stays seperate and floating and is slowly expelled as the ice gets colder.

This website on oceanography has the following explanation:

Quote from: https://rwu.pressbooks.pub/webboceanography/
As sea ice crystals form, most of the salt is excluded, so sea ice contains much less salt than seawater, and can be melted for drinking if needed. But about 20% of the salt remains trapped in pockets of water between the ice crystals. As ice forms and salts are excluded into these pockets, the salinity of the remaining water increases and it can become too salty to freeze. These unfrozen pockets of briny water make sea ice a little softer and more slushy than fresh water ice, which is harder and more rigid. Eventually most of this brine leaks out, and the sea ice becomes more solid, but when it is “young ice” it can be more dangerous to walk on than fresh water ice of the same thickness. For example, 7-8 cm of fresh water ice is enough to support the weight of a single person, but you would need at least 15 cm of sea ice to do the same.

I realise that this is off topic, but it is still important to understand where the brine is and what effect it has. For one, the brine pockets transfer heat much more efficiently than the ice itself. Thus the interior of relatively new ice can warm up or cool down much faster than older ice. Another effect is that the brine pockets themselves will start to melt the surrounding ice if temperatures are sustained at their individal freezing point (which can be as low as - 5 C or lower). And the process of excluding the brine is itself presumably weakening with warmer average winter temperatures, although I've no idea as to the scale of the changes taking place in this regard and if they are significant or not.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 878
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5571 on: August 31, 2020, 06:31:35 AM »
JAXA went below 4 million today, the third time ever that this has happened. Second place does seem secure now, 2020 is over 300.000 km2 below 2019 and 30.000 from reaching second place.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5572 on: August 31, 2020, 06:59:51 AM »
This summer the only topic to melt the ice is heat. No strong storm, no strong Fram export. ONLY heat, endless heat. It is so interesting that the heat could do so many things even now the top melt is still going on. The ice surface is still wet.

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 460
  • Likes Given: 117
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5573 on: August 31, 2020, 08:13:11 AM »
Noaa's Physical Science Lab's forecast (29-08-20) on ice melt shows some top melt (rate circa 1cm per day) on going through the last days of August in the region north of Svalbard to the pole and little anywhere in the first few days of September.

Meanwhile it forecasts substantial bottom melt for the Beaufort doughnut, up to 2cm per day on its southern edge. Bottom melt also continuing elsewhere near sea/ice edge but at a lower rate 0.5cm per day.

https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/seaice/

(Select : Snow and Ice -> Ice Melt Terms)

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5574 on: August 31, 2020, 08:17:23 AM »
IF GFS has got it right, the remains of Hurricane Laura will be entering the Central Arctic next Thursday.

What do you suppose the odds are?
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5575 on: August 31, 2020, 08:24:14 AM »
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5576 on: August 31, 2020, 08:33:39 AM »
August 25-29.

2019.

That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.

It will be very interesting if you explain in more detail what you are thinking. I will learn for sure. I don't see anything special with Freegrass' wind video.

I was referring to Aluminium's Uni Bremen SIC animation, more specifically to the retreat of the edge of the ice pack north of Severnaya Zemlya. It's really fast, even if the pressure gradient (due to dipole) isn't all that huge. But not small either, of course.

This will continue for several more days. If the ice edge makes it beyond 85N, it should make headlines. I agree the concentration loss between Greenland and the NP was spectacular too, but only for icewatchers like us, not to the general public. For that, it needs to be open water.

2020 made it to second place, without extreme weather. Melting momentum.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9

miki

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5578 on: August 31, 2020, 08:42:44 AM »
2020 made it to second place, without extreme weather. Melting momentum.

Quite a sobering melting season.
And a lot of energy that might be stored this winter under the ice for the next one.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2441
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1012
  • Likes Given: 1034
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5579 on: August 31, 2020, 09:37:37 AM »
https://go.nasa.gov/31FqWMD .. shows open ocean has reached and passed 85'N . b.c.

... not a great help in lowering dmi80+ which continues above 0'C
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 11:27:50 AM by be cause »
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

SimonF92

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 592
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5580 on: August 31, 2020, 09:58:41 AM »
2020 made it to second place, without extreme weather. Melting momentum.

Quite a sobering melting season.
And a lot of energy that might be stored this winter under the ice for the next one.

Siberian coast going to become a nice place for a warm vacation in 10 years at this rate
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1339
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 679
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5581 on: August 31, 2020, 11:14:49 AM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5582 on: August 31, 2020, 11:26:01 AM »
Thanks for this BFTV. Staring at the animation long enough, one can actually SEE the cloud and snow effects north and east of Greenland working in tandem to increase apparent concentration. Cloud effect is transient, not sure if the snow effect is here to stay.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1339
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 679
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5583 on: August 31, 2020, 11:27:26 AM »
The open water closest to the N. Pole, just north of Franz Joseph Land, is directly on the 85N. So it should move well north of that position over the coming days.

https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1300364243309649920
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5117
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2163
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5584 on: August 31, 2020, 12:32:05 PM »
A look back at the development of low concentration ice north of greenland, jun17-aug30 (amsr2-uhh sic)

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5585 on: August 31, 2020, 01:19:07 PM »
Today the Ice Bagel in the Beaufort Sea is broken for the first time in Danish data.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim/index.php

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 580
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5586 on: August 31, 2020, 01:26:18 PM »
I think something very bad has happened to the halocline. The 00z EURO's ice forecast shows almost total failure on the European side of Lomonosov Ridge by D10. There is almost open water to the North Pole.

I don't see what else explains this happening?

DMI also shows the North Pole imminently going to ~25% concentration...

grixm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 374
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5587 on: August 31, 2020, 01:52:31 PM »
I think something very bad has happened to the halocline. The 00z EURO's ice forecast shows almost total failure on the European side of Lomonosov Ridge by D10. There is almost open water to the North Pole.

Can you post a link to this forecast?

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 580
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5588 on: August 31, 2020, 01:53:05 PM »
I think something very bad has happened to the halocline. The 00z EURO's ice forecast shows almost total failure on the European side of Lomonosov Ridge by D10. There is almost open water to the North Pole.

Can you post a link to this forecast?
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/ice-ocean-lake/20200909-1200z.html

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5589 on: August 31, 2020, 01:56:39 PM »
I suggest to wait the 10 days before making announcements. Forecasts have been problematic even 3 days out, 10 days is fantasyland. Halocline could be having a bad time but it's best to wait for facts and observations showing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5590 on: August 31, 2020, 01:58:22 PM »
Global Ocean Forecasting System fans may be interested in taking a look at the current week ahead forecast?

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

P.S. Sorry Mod!
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 580
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5591 on: August 31, 2020, 01:59:02 PM »
I suggest to wait the 10 days before making announcements. Forecasts have been problematic even 3 days out, 10 days is fantasyland. Halocline could be having a bad time but it's best to wait for facts and observations showing it.
DMI matches EURO... it only goes to 9/5. I won't post the maps because they are... DMI. But there is consensus IMO that the Laptev / ATL fronts are going to rapidly progress.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5592 on: August 31, 2020, 02:11:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

I don't see how the Greenland Sea ice can survive this coming onslaught...
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

stjuuv

  • New ice
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5593 on: August 31, 2020, 02:21:30 PM »
I think something very bad has happened to the halocline. The 00z EURO's ice forecast shows almost total failure on the European side of Lomonosov Ridge by D10. There is almost open water to the North Pole.

I don't see what else explains this happening?

DMI also shows the North Pole imminently going to ~25% concentration...
Does the forecast model even have the capability to predict changes in the halocline or account for current halocline conditions? Just curious.

Cookymonster

  • New ice
  • Posts: 9
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5594 on: August 31, 2020, 02:25:31 PM »
Long time lurker here.

Does anyone have a clear idea of the Fram export capture zone? Looking at the development of the Atlantic and Laptev regions, and the retreat above 85N the export this winter will be significantly composed of 1st year ice?

I wonder if it is possible to quantify this notion?

CM

Shared Humanity

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 471
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5595 on: August 31, 2020, 03:13:49 PM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.

From that first image...

With the Atlantic side ice front migrating so rapidly to the pole under high winds, you would expect concentration of ice away from the ice edge to increase. We instead find the concentration dropping far into the interior which suggests a whole lot of melting still going on.

Shared Humanity

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 471
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5596 on: August 31, 2020, 03:26:35 PM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.

BFTV....I would like to thank you for these images and GIFs. They are amazing.

If you look at the GIF at the end of your comment, the activity on the Atlantic side suggests to me that 1st place is still not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, I have no idea what I am talking about.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5597 on: August 31, 2020, 03:28:59 PM »
A look back at the development of low concentration ice north of greenland, jun17-aug30 (amsr2-uhh sic)
That big floe that ends up halfway Ellesmere Island came all the way from halfway the Lincoln sea. That's almost 400 km travel distance of all the thick ice along the NA coast.

Will there be any MYI left next season that's older than 2 years? Or will it all end up in the Beaufort sea?
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5598 on: August 31, 2020, 03:38:11 PM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.

From that first image...

With the Atlantic side ice front migrating so rapidly to the pole under high winds, you would expect concentration of ice away from the ice edge to increase. We instead find the concentration dropping far into the interior which suggests a whole lot of melting still going on.
Can this be happening due to ice movement and thus increased mixing and melting and breaking up of fragile ice?
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 03:48:21 PM by Freegrass »
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5599 on: August 31, 2020, 04:10:41 PM »
A look back at the development of low concentration ice north of greenland, jun17-aug30 (amsr2-uhh sic)
I think I've finally figured out the gap north of Greenland. On your graphic you can clearly see how the GAAC moves the ice westwards. But on the east side of Greenland the ice bumps into Greenland and a strong current out of Fram. This causes the ice to rip apart, get stretched and weakend. This weak ice then melted out because of warm and powerful winds coming through Fram.

I think that's the story of the 2020 Greenland Bite.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 04:31:56 PM by Freegrass »
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?