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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5950 on: September 08, 2020, 07:07:11 AM »
I bet there is a nice rebound of 4+years  MYI this year


Perhaps I am the confused one, yellow 3-4 year ice becomes next years 4+ year red ice.  A lot of yellow last year became red this last freezing season, the rebound is in the past.  Not much yellow this year so very little to become red over the freezing season, so no rebound this year in my interpretation.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5951 on: September 08, 2020, 07:09:50 AM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5952 on: September 08, 2020, 07:46:29 AM »
September 2-6.

2019.
     1. The Severnaya Zemlya ice pack lives!   :P   

     2. We all assume that there must be extra heat in the Arctic Ocean water due to high pressure -> clear skyies -> high insolation that dominated this summer.  But do we have any metric that tracks the amount of energy in the Arctic Ocean water?  GFS and DMI show 2M air temperature but that is not reflecting supposed extra heat in the water remaining from this summer.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 09:07:16 AM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5953 on: September 08, 2020, 08:39:57 AM »
@jdallen Relax, I edited afterwards as I was able to retrieve the maps. I am sorry for the confusion but so I avoided cluttering with another post.

It seems I ruffled some feathers.
- It is well on topic (no need to silence me) Ice drift since 2012, including this season seems to be such that a level of MYI is kept steady, even the oldest rebounding some this year. In terms of ice years, the only real transition happened from 2007 to 2012.
- I am not sure if there is any implication for future seasons (or even this year: perhaps the CAB was more resilient to the GAAC and September compaction events for a reason?)
- The mention that MYI can be 0.5 m is rich. Yes, and it can melt completely. But per Piomas, there is a lot of 1 to 2 meter ice in a region overlapping the NASA 4+y regiin.
- Try to dismiss the product. But here is the problem: the parochy has been cherishing this product over the years as it shows less red and more blue. But how reliable is this product? I don’t know. I think it looks pretty convincing, as one only has to follow particles displaced by ice drift, which is one quantity, I would say, easily measured by satellite. Perhaps there’s the initial conditions problem, but even errors there would get diluted in time within the unbounded 4+ years category.

I personally trust this product and it is a fact there is a rebound of this 4+ category this year and little change in the last eight.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5954 on: September 08, 2020, 08:48:54 AM »
Shall we start the freezing season thread?
Not just yet, too early. Let's wait for all metrics to clearly show the minimum has passed.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5955 on: September 08, 2020, 09:43:32 AM »
Longish meta discussion, perhaps crossing off topic, but hopefully useful exposition.

@jdallen Relax, ...<snip>...
It seems I ruffled some feathers.
My only personal criticism is the one you resolved. More on feather ruffling down post.
Quote
- I am not sure if there is any implication for future seasons ... <snip> ... But per Piomas, there is a lot of 1 to 2 meter ice in a region overlapping the NASA 4+y regiin.
This speaks to discussions both here and on other threads about ice quality and and how products we currently are relying on for data seem increasingly less accurate in how they characterize the state of the ice.

I would also hazard to say "a lot" is very much qualitative rather than quantitative, less scalar and more binary.
Quote
- <snip> the parochy has been cherishing this product <snip> it looks pretty convincing, <snip> I personally trust this product <snip>
I find "cherish" an odd word to apply here, as it suggests an attachment that really doesn't exist. "Looks convincing" is similarly perilous as it asks us make value judgments rather than evaluate what is presented critically.

Similarly, "trust" is really not relevant.  What is relevant, is how closely the model output matches what is actually present in the Arctic.  The Polarstern expedition even without presenting much of its detail, has already highlighted the fact that there is an increasing gap between what the models produce and what is actually present, and that not in a favorable direction.

Since joining the forum in 2013, I've become both much more conservative in my declarations, and less likely to draw conclusions from the output of a single data source.  To this point, any model I evaluate is being examined in context with others like it, which use different algorithms and frequently completely different sets of data.  For the most part, it is only when I see broad agreement across them that I will make strongly worded statements.  And recently, I've relied far more on what is directly observable (EOSDIS for example) rather than modeled information.

I'm not yet seeing how your assertion is borne out in that context, aside from the specific, narrow definition you are using to support your suggestion that ice may somehow be recovering.

"Recovery" is a provocative and very strong word to use, in the context of the discussions taking place here, and in view of other information sources that would not support its use.  What is also worth reflecting on is just how narrowly you are having to set your definitions to justify it.  As you frame it, 4 year old MYI which is only 1-2m thick is of equal value to what 4 year old MYI *used* to be - 3m thick or more for the most part, and far more robust than the scattering of dots the current maps present.  That in itself is what I suspect is provoking more than a few readers here.

I think that's a serious mistake in analysis, and very much overlooks context.  There are many explanations for what we are seeing in those graphics, but very few of them would justify the use of "Recovery" as a relevant and useful characterization.  It strikes me as being akin to sending out a press release when a fire has been put out on one wall of a building, while the blaze continues to intensify elsewhere.

Better would be to examine the model in context, and ask yourself or others a few more questions about it.  You may be able to avoid getting your ears boxed as thoroughly as mine were. 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5956 on: September 08, 2020, 11:18:06 AM »
Thus this is different from the massive opening north of Greenland which the Polarstern's captain correctly described as ice melt from the extraordinary heat wave (documented at Alert and Morris Jessup wx stations), rather than bulk pack advection towards the NSI creating open water gaps.
The effects of that heat wave seem to be lasting a very long time. I expected drifting ice to cover the low concentration area faster than this. During the last few days there are hints of low concentration along the Lomonosov ridge to the Laptev side of the pole. edit: or maybe that's the arc of a rather large Fram funnel.
Mosaic probably took some measurements so we'll find out eventually if there is an ocean component to this event.

gmrt bathymetry with amsr2-uhh overlay at 75% transparency. 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to fully transparent. sep1-7

A larger, less cropped version here
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 01:31:01 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5957 on: September 08, 2020, 12:00:54 PM »
Today's images and animation.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5958 on: September 08, 2020, 12:29:47 PM »
Today's images and animation.
Thanks BFTV.
It appears like widespread surface and open water freezing within the pack, while some of the edges continue to melt. Some of the new ice could be artifacts but I doubt such an effect would be across the entire pack.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5959 on: September 08, 2020, 12:54:59 PM »
@jdallen if I used “recovery” (I think not but not sure) I meant rebound.

I am still intrigued on why the Pacific side of the GAAC showed a drastically lower temperature than the Atlantic side, and my thought was that the Atlantic side drew heat from Siberia, but we never discussed why the solid drop of temps in the Pacific side (where the current ESS/Laptev bulge has survived). It wouldn’t be that far-fetched to think that an ample field of MYI is able to soak the heat from the circulating airmass very effectively compared to FYI.

This can be playing a role for a gradual sea ice loss rather than abrupt, but well, this is off topic.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5960 on: September 08, 2020, 01:45:56 PM »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5961 on: September 08, 2020, 01:51:21 PM »
Ice edge position over the last 14 days
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5962 on: September 08, 2020, 03:00:14 PM »
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Thanks for these updates FG.
It seems the storm is hitting where the ice is the least vulnerable, so no effects might be visible in the stats, especially as cold temps are setting in. However, I am wondering about the possible effects of forecast wind flows on the still-lingering Beaufort arm, the marginal ice towards the ESS, and the remaining ice in the southern CAA, all of which might be somewhat vulnerable.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5963 on: September 08, 2020, 03:03:21 PM »
<snip>
As you frame it, 4 year old MYI which is only 1-2m thick is of equal value to what 4 year old MYI *used* to be - 3m thick or more for the most part, and far more robust than the scattering of dots the current maps present.  That in itself is what I suspect is provoking more than a few readers here.
<snip>
Good post as usual Allen. +1

When I read this quote it makes me think about a question I asked before, but never really got answered.

When MYI is that thin, can it survive another year of melt? Because when ice gets thicker, it freezes at the bottom, right? And in summer it melts from the top. So when a thin MYI floe refreezes, it resides in the top layer of that newly formed ice I presume. So can MYI - that's less than a meter thick - survive another melting season on top of FYI?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5964 on: September 08, 2020, 03:24:28 PM »
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Thanks for these updates FG.
It seems the storm is hitting where the ice is the least vulnerable, so no effects might be visible in the stats, especially as cold temps are setting in. However, I am wondering about the possible effects of forecast wind flows on the still-lingering Beaufort arm, the marginal ice towards the ESS, and the remaining ice in the southern CAA, all of which might be somewhat vulnerable.
You're welcome Oren. Happy to be useful!  :)

When we follow the rule that cyclones disperse the ice, I can see a lot of ice being pushed towards the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. And because the winds in this storm have strengthened again to 50 km/h and above, I can see a lot of damage being done to the last of the thick ice. I think this storm will push the last remaining thick ice towards it's doom in the Beaufort sea, and through the garlic press into the CAA. That arm in the beaufort is the least of our worries IMHO. If it disappears, it will drop the extent numbers for this season, but I'm already thinking about next season. And this storm is really bad news for the last of the thick MYI IMHO...

But I could be wrong! As I have been before, so let's wait a few days to see what damage is being done by this storm. But I think it could be really bad. The ice hasn't strengthened a lot yet, has it? Only the surface of the melt ponds is frozen now? This will of course have an influence on the grip the wind can have on the ice, so I'll be watching and learning. But 50 km/h is pretty strong. That even does damage in winter...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5965 on: September 08, 2020, 03:38:53 PM »
Today's images and animation.

In that gif, for low concentration ice to appear so far from the ice edge near the Laptev suggests to me that there is still a lot of ocean heat causing a great deal of bottom melt.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5966 on: September 08, 2020, 03:41:38 PM »
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Thank the Goddess that strong low along the CAA disappears.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5967 on: September 08, 2020, 03:54:35 PM »
Cripes, Chartic is down again:

"Error establishing a database connection"

Can anyone else access it? If so please post a snip
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5968 on: September 08, 2020, 06:44:00 PM »
NSIDC is finally back up.  5 day daily change is up to a loss of 55.  This brings us to only 447 thousand km^2 above the 2012 minimum (currently at 3.834 million km^2).

Another 10 days of such high loss numbers, required to beat 2012, seem unlikely.  It will be interesting to see what this storm does and if the cold coming in and high temperature gradient produce any more significant ice affecting storms.  I like how unpredictable the Arctic can be.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5969 on: September 08, 2020, 07:42:43 PM »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5970 on: September 08, 2020, 08:23:20 PM »
<snip>
As you frame it, 4 year old MYI which is only 1-2m thick is of equal value to what 4 year old MYI *used* to be - 3m thick or more for the most part, and far more robust than the scattering of dots the current maps present. 
<snip>
<snip>
When MYI is that thin, can it survive another year of melt? Because when ice gets thicker, it freezes at the bottom
It all very much depends on the melt conditions the ice is exposed too.

It can survive, but will be much different in nature - "Hybrid" if you will - than older, thicker MYI was in the past.

MYI which is seriously degraded (down to under 2M in thickness) will not be as robust even if it manages to gain thickness during the refreeze.  New ice will not be as consolidated - of the same quality, hardness and physical structure - as the surviving older ice.  There's fertile ground for a doctoral thesis there, assuming the ice survives long enough for research to capture what it looks like and how it behaves.

For me, it helps to understand what is going on by approaching the overall outcome season over season as a sum of probabilities.  For example,  some small fraction of it may actually be thicker and miraculously thicken further over the refreeze, but key there is the "bell curve" for thickness distribution is shifting badly against thicker older ice.

The distribution of the mechanisms generating those probabilities - insolation, cloudiness, wind, melt ponds and more - hasn't really altered that much, exceptions being increased WAA and indirectly things like lower albedo.

But to some degree they are not structural changes in the original system dynamics as the are derivative modifications of it, produced by increased overal enthalpy in Arctic and northern hemisphere climate systems. 

As a metaphor - consider the Arctic's heat reservoir as a bucket with strategically drilled holes in it, and it's heat budget as a hose playing water into it.  The system in balance will have the water level rise and fall predictably based on relative inputs.  Add another small hose or just increase the flow slightly (WAA, Atlantification, increased spring continental run-off, etc.) and change the size of the holes (decreased albedo for example, or stronger greenhouse blocking of outgoing radiation), and eventually the water will rise until it finds a new balance. 

Key dynamics of the system - phase change physical chemistry, insolation, black body radiation, greenhouse physics, et. al. remain mostly the same. 

What they are playing out on has not.

This of course is a tremendous simplification but I found it useful as a mental exercise to help understand and put in context the dynamics of what we see playing out before us.

That's well illustrated by what's happening this year.  While warm, melt conditions haven't been nearly as extraordinary as they were in 2012.  Yet, here we are at 2nd lowest in most metrics, with a slim chance still of catching 2012.  We got here because of a cascade; the same inputs, but the shift in probable outcomes for each event means less ice and increased capture of heat in the system.  I think we all know how it will eventually play out.  Most of our arguments about it are over timing.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 08:34:51 PM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5971 on: September 08, 2020, 08:43:24 PM »
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Probably belongs in the stupid question thread but...

I've been clicking on these animations for weeks. Is it normal to have all of these lows rolling up through the Barents and into the Arctic? I remember a few years ago when someone labeled this behavior as a cyclone cannon. Is there a stuck weather pattern that is causing this?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5972 on: September 08, 2020, 10:24:40 PM »
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Probably belongs in the stupid question thread but...

I've been clicking on these animations for weeks. Is it normal to have all of these lows rolling up through the Barents and into the Arctic? I remember a few years ago when someone labeled this behavior as a cyclone cannon. Is there a stuck weather pattern that is causing this?

I think the short answer is, sort of, and it didn't use to be.  IIRC the "Cyclone Cannon" descriptor started being used in 2016 with the storms charging from the tropics along the NAM eastern seaboard all the way to 80N.  I know I started using it to describe the strings of storms we were seeing.  Whether I was first, I don't recall.

It hasn't been so much that this year, as from what I could see, a lot of the storms have spawned further north from moisture and heat carried north by the remains of other systems that lost coherence.  Not quite the same.  In 2016 the storms were retaining structure from start to end.

I think the underlying mechanism is similar - a breakdown of the Hadley/Ferrel/Polar cell circulation in the northern hemisphere - permitting direct transfer of air masses from equator to pole.  That weather tends to follow the NAM and Asian eastern seaboards I think because both ocean margins provide a handy energy source to power and gradient to steer the air masses consistently.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 10:39:38 PM by jdallen »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5973 on: September 09, 2020, 02:33:20 AM »
Another excellent reply Allen. Thank you!

A few weeks ago I watched a 2015 Discovery Channel documentary - you probably all know - called Melting: Last Race to the Pole (link), and it really helped me a lot to understand what the Arctic sea ice actually looks like after winter.

The reason I mention this is because when they took off on their journey, they had to cross a lot of broken up ice that was stacked on top of eachother (ridges). And this dynamic probably pushes the older ice even more upwards and sideways? It was a lot of blue ice that was sticking out, and I'm sure that some of that ice will get pushed down under other floes as well. So I guess the thinner and weaker the ice pack gets, the more mobile it will become, creating even bigger areas of these large broken up "rubble piles" of ice on the North American Arctic Coast where FYI, MYI, and frozen melt ponds are all being mixed up.

So maybe the end result is smaller floes in the future as the weaker FYI melts and/or breaks up earlier and release those broken up pieces of stronger MYI?

Anyway... Thanks for teaching me a few new things! Hopefully someone will make that thesis soon.   :)

PS: Did someone take pictures of the sea ice in the mega crack this year? I wonder what it looked like a few weeks ago...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5974 on: September 09, 2020, 02:45:08 AM »
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DMI 80N will go up a little again it seems...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5975 on: September 09, 2020, 03:58:31 AM »
Cripes, Chartic is down again:

"Error establishing a database connection"

Can anyone else access it? If so please post a snip

Almost uncharcticked waters...              (sorry about that, couldn't resist)

Even if you have a connection now perhaps it may be worth posting this just to show that diving blue line...  I know that expert opinion has it that there will probably be no record minimum, and I respect that, but there may be a lot of heat left in them there seas. 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5976 on: September 09, 2020, 06:09:05 AM »
September 4-8.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5977 on: September 09, 2020, 06:25:05 AM »
It is impressive to see how the last 5 days weather has collapsed most of the 'ESS bulge' back close to the 80N line. We may end up with the only substantial ice south of 80N being the Beaufort and CAA. The momentum on the ESS side may keep 'melting season' going longer than expected.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5978 on: September 09, 2020, 06:26:18 AM »
September 4-8.

2019.

Are we seeing the garlic press in action or is the CAA refreezing?

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5979 on: September 09, 2020, 06:40:14 AM »
Certainly the garlic press is very active on both sides of Ellef Ringness island, and also the crack above Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg has shrunk due to ice movement. However it seems to me some refreezing is occurring as well.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5980 on: September 09, 2020, 06:53:53 AM »
The Fram export will be very high this week as the strong winds push the remaining ice to get out. The Beaufort ice tongue will continue to shrink. Some cold weather is expected in the Pacific side but it looks the melting still stronger then little refreeze. I won't be surprised if extent will drop 400-500k until the minimum

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5981 on: September 09, 2020, 07:23:41 AM »
The 09/09/20 bremen time series graphic has 2020 literally tied with 2012.

In fact it may have 2020 a few thousand km2 below 2012.

Either way.

If that Beaufort broken ring vanishes for another few days to a week.

2020 will likely be the record lowest on bremen.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5982 on: September 09, 2020, 07:24:37 AM »
Final answer is 983 hPa according to environnement Canada. For Ostrov Vize, the string of records is still going on. It has been since the 14th of August that every day break its record ! Almost a month of absolutely continous record. But, on top of that, every day since the 2nd of September has registered a temperature higher than the old monthly record (5.4°C in 2015) ! Probably including the 9th of Septemeber, this day, as Tx was at least 5.3°C. For now, the mean of Tx is higher than the old monthly record of Septemebr by 0.3°C.

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=9&year=2020
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=8&year=2020

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5983 on: September 09, 2020, 07:28:09 AM »
The 09/09/20 bremen time series graphic has 2020 literally tied with 2012.

In fact it may have 2020 a few thousand km2 below 2012.

Either way.

If that Beaufort broken ring vanishes for another few days to a week.

2020 will likely be the record lowest on bremen.

And Bremen is the highest resolution dataset, correct? If the Bremen chart did show a clear 2020 1st place minimum, does this imply a higher likelihood of a "true" new record than just NSIDC or JAXA would imply on its own? Of course a consensus across the board would be more definitive, but I wonder which of the 3 would provide the strongest case for a potentially contested 2020 extent record.

*Edited for clarity
« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 07:34:24 AM by I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5984 on: September 09, 2020, 07:31:09 AM »
The 09/09/20 bremen time series graphic has 2020 literally tied with 2012.

In fact it may have 2020 a few thousand km2 below 2012.

Either way.

If that Beaufort broken ring vanishes for another few days to a week.

2020 will likely be the record lowest on bremen.

And Bremen is the highest resolution dataset, correct? Does this imply a higher likelihood of a "true" new record than just NSIDC or JAXA would imply on its own? Of course a consensus across the board would be more definitive, but I wonder which of the 3 would provide the strongest case for a potentially contested 2020 extent record.

Here is the graphic
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Darvince

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5985 on: September 09, 2020, 07:43:09 AM »
All that snow is gonna insulate the ice from freezing, isn't it? Will this become another positive feedback loop? More open water means more snow, means more open water and even more snow next year?
IIRC the majority of Antarctic sea ice is composed of fallen snow rather than frozen seawater. More snow should be a negative feedback since most of the Arctic is now composed of first year ice like the Antarctic.



RE: Bremen. I have found where they store images of each of the minima, and in 2012 they were using the SSMIS satellite even beyond the time when AMSR-2 became available, so the minima of 2012 and 2020 are not directly comparable on there. They apparently didn't switch over in time.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 08:15:12 AM by Darvince »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5986 on: September 09, 2020, 08:41:59 AM »
Nice catch, Darvince. Good to know for future reference. It is too bad that they didn’t switch over in time, as it leaves a frustrating comparison discrepancy between current developments and an extremely important point in recent Arctic history. I guess that’s the way the cookie crumbles though, just like JAXA being down for a week around the melt season minimum :/ Gotta keep moving on and making the best of what we do have going forward.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5987 on: September 09, 2020, 09:45:44 AM »
Hello everyone!
I have been lurking this forum since December 2018 (I discovered this website through a Paul Beckwith video) and I want to thank you all for the high quality content posted here everyday by the ASIF community.

I wanted to share my findings regarding some questions that were asked about the Bremen sea ice extent numbers:
-In their website https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/amsre-amsr2/time-series/, it is stated that
Quote
Since July 3, 2012, AMSR2 data is displayed which is adapted with the same parameters as its predecessor AMSR-E. The fit parameters are not deduced by comparing it during an overlap period to another time series. Hence, the data ought to be treated with caution until confirmation by independent sources.
therefore if I've understood this well there's no reason we couldn't compare the (future) September 2020 sea ice extent minimum with 2012's.
-Moreover, I've found Bremen's 2012 September daily minimum here : https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_19720101-20191231_amsr2.txt, It was reached September 15th with a value of 3,274,138.00 km², today's daily value is 3,318,268.00 km², https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_2020_amsr2_smooth.txt, so for 2020 to beat 2012, by that measure, it would need an extent loss of at least 44,131 km². If it happens, it will surely be by the end of the week.

I hope you found my post informative and useful. I have nothing else to add for all I know about sea ice I have learnt from here. I shall now return lurking in the shadows.  8)
« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 11:06:16 AM by mv89 »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5988 on: September 09, 2020, 11:54:20 AM »
Today's images and animation.
No sign of the storm yet...
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5989 on: September 09, 2020, 12:12:17 PM »
Minimum ice is predicted not earlier than September 16. Full compliance with the trends of increasing the date of the minimum over time.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5990 on: September 09, 2020, 01:18:52 PM »
Hello everyone!
I have been lurking this forum since December 2018 (I discovered this website through a Paul Beckwith video) and I want to thank you all for the high quality content posted here everyday by the ASIF community.

I wanted to share my findings regarding some questions that were asked about the Bremen sea ice extent numbers:
-In their website https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/amsre-amsr2/time-series/, it is stated that
Quote
Since July 3, 2012, AMSR2 data is displayed which is adapted with the same parameters as its predecessor AMSR-E. The fit parameters are not deduced by comparing it during an overlap period to another time series. Hence, the data ought to be treated with caution until confirmation by independent sources.
therefore if I've understood this well there's no reason we couldn't compare the (future) September 2020 sea ice extent minimum with 2012's.
-Moreover, I've found Bremen's 2012 September daily minimum here : https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_19720101-20191231_amsr2.txt, It was reached September 15th with a value of 3,274,138.00 km², today's daily value is 3,318,268.00 km², https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_2020_amsr2_smooth.txt, so for 2020 to beat 2012, by that measure, it would need an extent loss of at least 44,131 km². If it happens, it will surely be by the end of the week.

I hope you found my post informative and useful. I have nothing else to add for all I know about sea ice I have learnt from here. I shall now return lurking in the shadows.  8)
Welcome mv89! And thanks for the information. I hope you post more when you find inspiration.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5991 on: September 09, 2020, 01:19:41 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

Fram export seems to be starting early this year...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5992 on: September 09, 2020, 01:24:12 PM »
Welcome mv89! And thanks for the information. I hope you post more when you find inspiration.

A very good find. The data of the University of Bremen date back to 1972. It is unclear why this data is not considered a standard when compared to US or Japanese data, which only begins in 1978-1979.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5993 on: September 09, 2020, 02:45:36 PM »
Another small daily drop on the NSIDC of only 7,000 sq km.  That brought the 5 day daily change down to -34 thousand sq km for today leaving us 413 thousand sq km away from the 2012 minimum.

Another storm, some export, and some heat might give us a minimum closer to the equinox.  Maybe another 10 or more days of melt/loss?  I feel like 2020 can't be discounted yet, or maybe I'm just being crazy.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5994 on: September 09, 2020, 04:24:26 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Thanks as ever, Freegrass -- I find your animations so useful.  What strikes me is the warm air that continues to flow from the Eurasian side over the SZ region towards the pole since this continues to bring heat to the ice edge nearest to and E of SZ...  That airflow also must be pulling some warmer surface waters from the Kara, Laptev and ESS with it...
It will be interesting to see what happens with Fram export... Day 4 and 5 forecasts have proven a tad unreliable of late.
It looks like from BFTV's also-excellent animations that the Atlantic edge has stabilized at last... way further north than normal.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5995 on: September 09, 2020, 04:28:14 PM »
Minimum ice is predicted not earlier than September 16. Full compliance with the trends of increasing the date of the minimum over time.
Tempted to agree, the Pacific side is not taking the winds well. But the imminent start of refreeze in the channels will probably balance further losses.
Also, how’s that temp map 6h/12h earlier or later? Minima rotate with day.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5996 on: September 09, 2020, 04:57:33 PM »
Today's images and animation.
No sign of the storm yet...
I'm baffled by that... 50 km/h winds should have left a mark for sure, yet nothing to be seen? I really can't believe it...

What did happen is that a lot of the ice got squeezed through the garlic press as the wind pushed all of the ice south, and the thickest ice did move a little towards the inevitable doom in the Beaufort sea. But again, I'm baffled that the ice isn't showing even a little scratch from this storm...

I suppose the winds moved over the ice too quickly and thus weren't persistent enough over the same area for them to cause any harm? Let's see what tomorrows map brings...

Thank you for the kind words Pagophilus! The end of my animations is always a tease... Will it happen? Again we wait and see...

Stay tuned!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5997 on: September 09, 2020, 05:17:51 PM »
Freegrass - I think it also has to do with the amount of profile the ice presents to the wind - high wind over a contiguous ice pack does less damage than high wind over a very broken pack or against the edge of a pack. There is more movement induced in the ice, more chance for ekman pumping, and more chance to get rising ocean heat to increase melting.

Most of the ice north of the CAA is pretty solid pack.

On the other side of the pack - the bulge toward the ESS has had less strong winds (of perhaps longer duration) that have been doing a lot of damage to exposed ice pack edge and more dispersed pack ice. Earlier in the month the same type of winds were moving the ice edge on the Atlantic front significantly north daily.

(If this storm had moved farther south into the Beaufort it might also have had more significant effects on that edge and the exposed tail.)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5998 on: September 09, 2020, 05:48:28 PM »
Remember the JD storm in June UCMiami? That storm was weaker over then still a solid thick ice pack, and it did leave a mark. The difference was persistence of the wind, and it was a speculation of mine before this storm that the frozen melt ponds would leave the wind without much to grab onto. The ridges - that must have been still present in June - are all gone now. The ice must be dead flat right now right? And that is a lesson learned for me...
« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 05:54:44 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5999 on: September 09, 2020, 07:16:03 PM »
Compared with the previous years I've looked at, there is considerably less low concentration ice as of 8 September. The concentration graph for the High Arctic confirms that.

That suggests to me that visible extent loss may be almost finished even if bottom melt continues.
Could that mean that extent gain my be slow as well?
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