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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6000 on: September 09, 2020, 08:20:39 PM »
Today's images and animation.
No sign of the storm yet...

So melt activity shifts from Atlantic side to Pacific including dramatic melt in the Beaufort. I was in agreement with those who predicted the Beaufort would hold up well but it sure looks like we could only have remnants of the thickest floes by the end of this melt season.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6001 on: September 09, 2020, 08:28:38 PM »
Freegrass - I think it also has to do with the amount of profile the ice presents to the wind - high wind over a contiguous ice pack does less damage than high wind over a very broken pack or against the edge of a pack. There is more movement induced in the ice, more chance for ekman pumping, and more chance to get rising ocean heat to increase melting.

Most of the ice north of the CAA is pretty solid pack.

On the other side of the pack - the bulge toward the ESS has had less strong winds (of perhaps longer duration) that have been doing a lot of damage to exposed ice pack edge and more dispersed pack ice. Earlier in the month the same type of winds were moving the ice edge on the Atlantic front significantly north daily.

(If this storm had moved farther south into the Beaufort it might also have had more significant effects on that edge and the exposed tail.)

Unless I am mistaken, that first image posted by BFTV shows dramatic impacts on the Beaufort arm with drops in concentration across most of the arm.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6002 on: September 09, 2020, 08:34:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6003 on: September 09, 2020, 09:01:45 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
Yes, I think the season is over or about to.
The refreezing in the CAA, if it already didn’t start, is going to come real fast, and more than balance the remaining losses is the Beaufort sea. The main pack is solid, high concentration as Gerontocrat shows, perhaps even expanding due to storms, and ready to refreeze at some edge locations as well, wind permitting.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6004 on: September 09, 2020, 10:52:09 PM »
Remember the JD storm in June UCMiami? That storm was weaker over then still a solid thick ice pack, and it did leave a mark. The difference was persistence of the wind, and it was a speculation of mine before this storm that the frozen melt ponds would leave the wind without much to grab onto. The ridges - that must have been still present in June - are all gone now. The ice must be dead flat right now right? And that is a lesson learned for me...
I think a mark has been left. Better unlearn that one. :)
https://go.nasa.gov/33gEmhs

More analysis here

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6005 on: September 09, 2020, 11:43:31 PM »
I think a mark has been left. Better unlearn that one. :)
https://go.nasa.gov/33gEmhs
More analysis here
Yeay! ;D But still... It's a little mark, and I guess the thickest ice in that area must still have some ridges on it that can catch that wind? I thought the entire pacific side would have been messed up by this storm. But I guess the ice there must be flat as a pancake by now and probably stronger than I thought...

I added an animation from the storm.

On another note, snow in the Verkhoyansk Range is late this season...
Here's a comparison with last year.
https://go.nasa.gov/33cY1z9

I find it amazing the speed with which Siberia turned from green to brown...
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6006 on: September 09, 2020, 11:57:55 PM »
amsr2-awi dev v1.03 latest
amsr2-uhh, sep8 for comparison.
awi dev possibly using later swaths.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 12:15:14 AM by uniquorn »

UCMiami

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6007 on: September 10, 2020, 01:35:21 AM »
It is also much later in the year with temperatures much colder than they were so what cracks that did form are not likely to be widened by excessive melting. And the earlier storm was closer to ice edges which could expand allowing wider dispersion. As I recall the extent decreases greatly slowed after that storm while the ice was dispersed prior to melting.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6008 on: September 10, 2020, 02:26:19 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Will that wind in the Beaufort sea create big enough waves to destroy the last remainder of the Beaufort scorpion tail? Or is the freshwater there too cold for that?
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6009 on: September 10, 2020, 03:41:55 AM »
Welcome mv89! And thanks for the information. I hope you post more when you find inspiration.

A very good find. The data of the University of Bremen date back to 1972. It is unclear why this data is not considered a standard when compared to US or Japanese data, which only begins in 1978-1979.

Nsidc has data back to 1972.

I am sure bremens data and NSIDCs data are from the same satellite that came before SMMR and was operational  between 1972-1978..
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6010 on: September 10, 2020, 05:40:19 AM »
This spidery-looking thing is interesting. Latest hi-res AMSR2 image:




MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6011 on: September 10, 2020, 06:22:11 AM »
JAXA extent sits at 3,586,426km2 with very little left in the season a record is not possible.

To reach 3,177,455km2 we would need a loss of 408,971km2, I doubt we'll lose that much now.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6012 on: September 10, 2020, 08:03:16 AM »
The cyclone did have a very clear effect. However the affected ice is mostly relatively thick.

Iain

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6013 on: September 10, 2020, 08:11:02 AM »
Jaxa is back up. 3.59 M km^2 for the 9th of September:
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6014 on: September 10, 2020, 10:26:31 AM »
Nsidc has data back to 1972.

But they don't use them in their charts.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2020/09/Figure-3.png

I am sure bremens data and NSIDCs data are from the same satellite that came before SMMR and was operational  between 1972-1978..

The satellite is really American. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nimbus_5

But the American organization itself does not seem to trust them. Therefore, the standard should be data from the University of Bremen, which is more accurate with data.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6015 on: September 10, 2020, 11:34:23 AM »
Today's images an animation. Those gains are easily balancing out the losses now, with the fracturing of ice in the centre of the pack a clear effect from the storm.
(larger animation on twitter)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

romett1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6016 on: September 10, 2020, 12:28:32 PM »
Will that wind in the Beaufort sea create big enough waves to destroy the last remainder of the Beaufort scorpion tail? Or is the freshwater there too cold for that?
Thinking same here. Waves about 2 - 2.5 m are starting to hit the area today. And then between Sunday to Tuesday similar or even larger waves forecasted. Picture - today's wave forecast in about three hours.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6017 on: September 10, 2020, 01:13:58 PM »
Nsidc has data back to 1972.

But they don't use them in their charts.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2020/09/Figure-3.png

I am sure bremens data and NSIDCs data are from the same satellite that came before SMMR and was operational  between 1972-1978..

The satellite is really American. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nimbus_5

But the American organization itself does not seem to trust them. Therefore, the standard should be data from the University of Bremen, which is more accurate with data.
The NSIDC (& JAXA) record from 1979 is consistent. i.e. they ensured the data from replacement satellites is consistent with data from earlier satellites. That meant NOT using the increased resolution possible with new technology.

The latest sensors are more accurate but their data cannot be used for comparisons with data before, e.g, 2012.

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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6018 on: September 10, 2020, 01:35:40 PM »
The NSIDC (& JAXA) record from 1979 is consistent. i.e. they ensured the data from replacement satellites is consistent with data from earlier satellites. That meant NOT using the increased resolution possible with new technology.

The latest sensors are more accurate but their data cannot be used for comparisons with data before, e.g, 2012.

There is such a problem

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425704001415

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/3261/2019/

The problem is relevant only for the melting season

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6019 on: September 10, 2020, 01:53:49 PM »
Weekly sea ice losses from July 1st
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6020 on: September 10, 2020, 01:59:20 PM »
Will that wind in the Beaufort sea create big enough waves to destroy the last remainder of the Beaufort scorpion tail? Or is the freshwater there too cold for that?
Thinking same here. Waves about 2 - 2.5 m are starting to hit the area today. And then between Sunday to Tuesday similar or even larger waves forecasted. Picture - today's wave forecast in about three hours.
Yes, right now we'd very much enjoy knowing as much about heat content as possible, both Arctic as a whole and specific areas we're most interested regarding further ice loss in particular. Some further loss will definitely happen, of course - together with some refreeze in other areas in the same time. We'd very much like to know how intensive remaining melt processes would be.

Yet, last few pages of this topic has no "heat content" discussion whatsoever.

Perhaps one interesting piece to begin this discussion - is this paper: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773.full . As you can see right from the abstract, involved changes are massive, and their causes are likely to be especially pronounced during exactly this melt season (2020), with all the high pressure pounding we had for weeks of nearly maximum insolation.

Hopefully, other posters, who are better qualified to provide good sources of near-real-time data about surface water heat content in the Arctic than i am - will provide current data useful for estimations of what is going on right now.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6021 on: September 10, 2020, 02:29:02 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

Greenland is powering up the jetstream, while the Siberian side is still a mess...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6022 on: September 10, 2020, 03:13:26 PM »
Today's images an animation. Those gains are easily balancing out the losses now, with the fracturing of ice in the centre of the pack a clear effect from the storm.
(larger animation on twitter)

That picture from the Polarstern that A-Team posted indicated the snow has fallen and melt ponds beginning to re-freeze nearer to the pole. But I think the increased concentration on the ice edge facing the East Siberian Sea is still mostly ice being moved around more than refreezing ocean. We will see. Your daily graphics and animation are wonderful, thank you.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6023 on: September 10, 2020, 03:19:27 PM »
The cyclone did have a very clear effect. However the affected ice is mostly relatively thick.

Relatively thick but fractured and very mobile. That cyclone would not have affected our father's ice.

I doubt it would have had an impact on 2012 ice.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6024 on: September 10, 2020, 03:25:06 PM »
Will that wind in the Beaufort sea create big enough waves to destroy the last remainder of the Beaufort scorpion tail? Or is the freshwater there too cold for that?
Thinking same here. Waves about 2 - 2.5 m are starting to hit the area today. And then between Sunday to Tuesday similar or even larger waves forecasted. Picture - today's wave forecast in about three hours.

Should have an impact. Will be informative to watch.

Sepp

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6025 on: September 10, 2020, 03:30:33 PM »
Weekly sea ice losses from July 1st

That is a great representation of the melting season. Even better to examine than animations, I think. Thank you so much! (and Freegrass as well for his daily forcast graphics)

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6026 on: September 10, 2020, 03:31:10 PM »

Greenland is powering up the jetstream, while the Siberian side is still a mess...

Have a nice stationary low hanging out in the Bering in that 2nd animation. And that high setting up on the Siberian side has the wind changing directions in the Beaufort.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6027 on: September 10, 2020, 05:09:49 PM »
I bet there is a nice rebound of 4+years  MYI this year <>
Ice age updated on the 7th of last month but nothing new yet. There was a reasonably clear view of, what must be some of, our soon to be 4+yr ice yesterday on noaa-20. https://go.nasa.gov/2DS1v1m

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6028 on: September 10, 2020, 09:54:58 PM »
gandul , quite a few of us could be found to have long trails of 'did not happen' if we revisited our own posts .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6029 on: September 11, 2020, 12:13:23 AM »
gandul , quite a few of us could be found to have long trails of 'did not happen' if we revisited our own posts .. b.c.
It was a dumb reaction, removed.
Let’s carry on.

sja45uk

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6030 on: September 11, 2020, 02:57:04 AM »
Weekly sea ice losses from July 1st
Great graphic! Do you have an equivalent for 2012?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6031 on: September 11, 2020, 03:46:51 AM »
I bet there is a nice rebound of 4+years  MYI this year <>
Ice age updated on the 7th of last month but nothing new yet. There was a reasonably clear view of, what must be some of, our soon to be 4+yr ice yesterday on noaa-20. https://go.nasa.gov/2DS1v1m

Some relatively large floes situated in a mass of rubble.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6032 on: September 11, 2020, 03:54:20 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Sorry about the late forecast, but Nullschool is completely messed up today. You'll see what I mean when you open this animation...  :'(
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Rodius

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6033 on: September 11, 2020, 04:51:37 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Sorry about the late forecast, but Nullschool is completely messed up today. You'll see what I mean when you open this animation...  :'(

I like these graphics but I am not sure what there is to learn by just watching them because there is nothing to compare it too.

For example.... if the prediction graphic (5 days ahead) had a graphic beside it showing what ended up happening, then a comparison could be made on accuracy, predicted events compared to what happened and so on.

I'm not saying to do that (although that would be great), and I do like watching them as well, I just keep wondering what happened compared to what was predicted so I can figure out if the predictions are worth watching.

I am not sure I am making sense.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6034 on: September 11, 2020, 05:25:02 AM »
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time.  This gif is from images on the oden site.  I was not able to get images for the same date each year, so the images are from a day from each year during the first two weeks of September, showing the approximate ice extent minimum.  The thing that jumps out here for me is how different this year is from all the others in terms of the Atlantic front, as others have noted.  2020 melt has advanced into the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in a manner that seems qualitatively different...   Retreating halocline?  Source: https://oden.geo.su.se/map/    Maps only go back to 2014, so no 2012.

Large gif.  Click to animate.  3 secs+ per image, a bit slow so features can be observed.

« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:32:41 AM by Pagophilus »
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6035 on: September 11, 2020, 05:44:58 AM »
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time.

Whenever you want!

Looking at the gif, the correlation between bathymetry and the ice edge on the Atlantic front is very clear, with 2020 being the obvious outsider (there is little correlation elsewhere in the Arctic).

I think people mostly understand bathymetry in terms the various depths, and see the ice edge somehow following the contour of the edge of the Eurasian continental shelf. But there is another feature that follows this same edge, i.e. the islands separating the Atlantic and Barents seas from the Arctic.

Both features are bathymetric (i.e. the coastal lines of the islands, and the edge of the continental shelf) and both probably have an effect on the likely ice edge at minimum - it is not only the sudden depth but also the presence of these islands that effect the position of the ice edge at minimum.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6036 on: September 11, 2020, 06:07:08 AM »
September 6-10.

2019.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6037 on: September 11, 2020, 06:07:55 AM »
The latest low pressure system is having an effect on the ice. Here's an animation comparing yesterday to today—you can see two broad swaths of lower concentration appeared in the latest update.

click to animate

aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6038 on: September 11, 2020, 06:29:47 AM »

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6039 on: September 11, 2020, 07:03:49 AM »
I'm starting to think that my confident prediction of a minimum in the second half of the 4th million is soon to be proven wrong. But then I'm getting used to being wrong about things, so chin up and stiff upper lip and all that!

But thinking back to all those who confidently dismissed any changes of 2nd place when melt slowed down in the beginning of August does help put the spring back into my step.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 07:14:51 AM by binntho »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6040 on: September 11, 2020, 07:48:30 AM »
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time. ...  The thing that jumps out here for me is how different this year is from all the others in terms of the Atlantic front, as others have noted.  2020 melt has advanced into the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in a manner that seems qualitatively different..

As noted before, it is NOT unprecedented. 2013 had almost exactly the same depth on the Atlantic Front:

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6041 on: September 11, 2020, 01:25:12 PM »
Today's images and animation
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6042 on: September 11, 2020, 01:32:04 PM »
 ::)
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time. ...  The thing that jumps out here for me is how different this year is from all the others in terms of the Atlantic front, as others have noted.  2020 melt has advanced into the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in a manner that seems qualitatively different..

As noted before, it is NOT unprecedented. 2013 had almost exactly the same depth on the Atlantic Front:

I stand corrected.  Thank you!  You bring me more hope for ice recovery in the future.   

And also a useful reminder not to make assumptions about data outside the particular data set I am currently looking at.  ::) :P
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 01:40:30 PM by Pagophilus »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6043 on: September 11, 2020, 02:10:31 PM »
NSIDC still posting losses for the 5 day daily change but it's getting smaller and smaller.
Last five days:
5 Day Daily Change1 Day Daily Change
-0.039-0.011
-0.055-0.034
-0.034-0.007
-0.008  0.007
-0.012-0.014

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6044 on: September 11, 2020, 02:13:49 PM »
On the five-day animation, the prong of the scorpion's tale in the Beaufort sea seems to be gone, but the ice concentration on the ESS front seems to be pulsing off and on.  Today a small 1000mb low heading toward the ESS front may push some ice in that area poleward. A stronger 990mb low heading toward the Atlantic ice front tomorrow and Sunday could create southerly winds for a while on that side. Those look like the last weather events of the melting season that could affect the ice measures lower before re-freezing becomes widespread?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6045 on: September 11, 2020, 02:18:58 PM »

Sorry about the late forecast, but Nullschool is completely messed up today.
Climate reanalyser still not updating from the 10th Sep, and is posting the following message

Thursday, 10 September 2020 
The NOAA/NCEP data distribution service is experiencing connectivity problems, and as a result forecast maps on this page may not be updating. No ETA yet on when the problem will be resolved.   

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=gfs&dm_id=arc-lea&wm_id=t2   
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6046 on: September 11, 2020, 02:53:59 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6047 on: September 11, 2020, 05:02:28 PM »
...
I stand corrected.  Thank you!  You bring me more hope for ice recovery in the future.  ....

I would not put too much hope into ice recovery, given sea ice temperatures.
I attach the latest SST anomaly : 2020 vs 2019,16,12. Those were very strong melt years, but 2020 still stands out by far. The Arctic Seas are crazy hot (except for the Beaufort) even vs. those exceptional years. I don't see how the Atlantic/Siberian side will ever freeze over. (of course it will eventually but still...). This is pretty amazing!

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6048 on: September 11, 2020, 05:29:32 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Sorry about the late forecast, but Nullschool is completely messed up today. You'll see what I mean when you open this animation...  :'(

I like these graphics but I am not sure what there is to learn by just watching them because there is nothing to compare it too.

For example.... if the prediction graphic (5 days ahead) had a graphic beside it showing what ended up happening, then a comparison could be made on accuracy, predicted events compared to what happened and so on.

I'm not saying to do that (although that would be great), and I do like watching them as well, I just keep wondering what happened compared to what was predicted so I can figure out if the predictions are worth watching.

I am not sure I am making sense.

I disagree. These graphics are great for trying to understand how the daily weather impacts the ice in its current state. I look at the forecast and then compare it to BFTV's ice pics and gif to see the impact. This is a thread that tracks the melt season. The forecasts for weather, winds and temperature are crucial in following the melt season.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:56:29 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6049 on: September 11, 2020, 05:45:18 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Sorry about the late forecast, but Nullschool is completely messed up today. You'll see what I mean when you open this animation...  :'(

I like these graphics but I am not sure what there is to learn by just watching them because there is nothing to compare it too.

For example.... if the prediction graphic (5 days ahead) had a graphic beside it showing what ended up happening, then a comparison could be made on accuracy, predicted events compared to what happened and so on.

I'm not saying to do that (although that would be great), and I do like watching them as well, I just keep wondering what happened compared to what was predicted so I can figure out if the predictions are worth watching.

I am not sure I am making sense.

I disagree. These graphics are great for trying to understand how the daily weather impacts the ice in its current state. I look at the 1st day of the forecast and then look at BTFV's ice pics and gif to see this. Yes the forecast will change out in day five but it is still very useful.
And I agree... with Shared Humanity.   It's all in the reading.  We know the next day forecast is likely and the day 5 forecast is sometimes rather fantastical, but at least we get to see the possibilities ahead to some degree.  And if a very strong weather pattern is establishing we get to see that.  Thanks, Freegrass, for the animations and the side dish of humor/perspective/worldliness that often comes with it.
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