Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 602508 times)

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 337
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6100 on: September 13, 2020, 12:48:05 PM »
The Next El Nino will probably cause the fatal blow, followed within a few seasons a BOE.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6101 on: September 13, 2020, 12:54:28 PM »
Today's images and animation.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6102 on: September 13, 2020, 02:40:37 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 704
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6103 on: September 13, 2020, 04:15:29 PM »
@jdallen I replied in the thread about BOE speculations.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6104 on: September 13, 2020, 08:56:09 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Gumbercules

  • NewMembers
  • New ice
  • Posts: 63
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6105 on: September 13, 2020, 08:58:12 PM »
When does the freezing season threat begin? Is there even one?

I have a useless prediction. Useless because everyone probably agrees. The 2020 freeze season will see ice levels extent below all previous years, even 2012. 2012 may have had the lowest minimum extent, but 2020 will very soon become the lowest extent for the given date, and not recover from that.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2306
  • Likes Given: 1937
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6106 on: September 13, 2020, 11:43:35 PM »
Freezing thread will begin once area, extent and PIOMAS volume all bottom out, so should be Sep 18th or 19th when Wipneus gives us the update.
Freezing predictions should go to the thread of the same name.

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6107 on: September 14, 2020, 01:52:14 AM »
The heat coming in from the Russian side just does not appear to be letting up. It's certainly not near as was as it was, but I really do wonder if some type of tipping point has been reached. I realize a lot of the waters in the East Siberian Sea, Kara, and Laptev Seas are not all that deep, but they have been liquid for such a long time this year. The longer they remain in that state the more mixing/Atlatnification can occur, and as mentioned, a delay in the refreeze.

That area will be fascinating to watch. The weather also looks like it's been quite brutal in Barrow, with nonstop rain/wind. I'm sure the coastal erosion along Alaska's entire north slope has been heightened this year. I wonder when the minimum will be, but whenever the globe gets a real strong el nino next, I think the Arctic will be in the struggle bus.
pls!

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 498
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6108 on: September 14, 2020, 05:11:29 AM »
September 13 is one of the year-to-year comparison dates for the U Bremen ASI (from AMSR2) false colour concentration maps, see attached figure  -- and perhaps the one closest to the daily extent minimum.

This year certainly strikes the eye as one of the lowest, along with 2012 of course, and to my eyes with 2007 (in the upper LH corrner) with that vast expanse of blue on the Pacific side.

jens

  • New ice
  • Posts: 95
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6109 on: September 14, 2020, 09:27:56 AM »
I don't know if the minimum has been reached, but thank you people for the effort to cover the melting season. Been interesting to follow, and learnt a thing or two about the Arctic.

A strong effort by 2020, with all the build-up and where it has ended up by now.

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6110 on: September 14, 2020, 11:31:51 AM »
The heat coming in from the Russian side just does not appear to be letting up. It's certainly not near as was as it was, but I really do wonder if some type of tipping point has been reached. I realize a lot of the waters in the East Siberian Sea, Kara, and Laptev Seas are not all that deep, but they have been liquid for such a long time this year. The longer they remain in that state the more mixing/Atlatnification can occur, and as mentioned, a delay in the refreeze.

That area will be fascinating to watch. The weather also looks like it's been quite brutal in Barrow, with nonstop rain/wind. I'm sure the coastal erosion along Alaska's entire north slope has been heightened this year. I wonder when the minimum will be, but whenever the globe gets a real strong el nino next, I think the Arctic will be in the struggle bus.

I think we have to be careful when we talk about tipping points too prematurity, people thought the Bering sea won't freeze over like it has done in the past because of 2 years of record low extents there or the ice ever reaching Svalbard again which of course has happened.

You do feel though we are going to see some exceptional conditions on the Siberian side of the basin in the next couple of months, extent is bound to be record lows, snow cover could well be at record low levels also seeing as you said, there is no cooling off there at all. The jet stream is so far north and maybe the warm SSTS and air is playing a role in that?

romett1

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6111 on: September 14, 2020, 11:56:32 AM »
Difference between today and Saturday - those winds have pushed ice edge some 40 - 50 km further north towards North Pole.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 148
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6112 on: September 14, 2020, 11:59:43 AM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick
It’s more resilient than FYI under a meter.

That difference is more academic than practical, at 1m.

Quote
Anyway, the notion that Western CAB ice is homogeneously under a meter thick is misleading.
I can imagine a field of mixed floes of different thickness, surviving tall  ridges, ... the closer to CAA the thicker and older in average.

*Mostly* true, I'll agree, but I think you are overstating  how much of that melange is actually MYI and of significant thickness.

Quote
The region between the NP and the Beaufort sea has suffered surface melting but has stayed relatively protected compared to the other side of the NP. It stayed substantially colder during July even when it was 24/7 under the sun.
Now this 1 millon km2 of extent has several years of being stretched, exported to Beaufort sea or the CAA channels until it completely melts. It is a region of slow turnover time compared to the Gyre or the ice on the transpolar drift. It is a buffer against abrupt apocalypse scenarios.
You are making an awful lot of assumptions there, in the face of evidence - like the melt out of thick, MYI north of Greenland this year - which don't support your rosy interpretation of the ice's survivability.

Other posters have pointed out that Transpolar drift is broken.  The Gyre is broken.  Pretty much every mechanism we are used to watching and basing assumptions on, is broken.

And then there is the raw question of how much what we see in models is diverging from what's actually visible where we have "feet on the ground".

The only buffer we have against "sudden apocalypse" scenarios is the weather. 1 million km2 of 1m thick MYI or the equivalent simply doesn't have the thermal inertia to stop an apocalypse if the weather isn't cooperative.

The net enthalpy in the system has exploded, between additional solar uptake, and the huge inputs implied by the salinity data we see around Atlantification, as well as less dramatic inputs through the Bering strait on the Pacific side.

At this point, it really all hinges on seasonal uptake and existing heat.  Not extent.  Not area.  Not thickness.

We burned through ~15,000 km3 worth of ice this season already.  The ice you are citing (1,000,000 km2 of more or less 1m thick MYI) would represent less than 7% of that.

Even if I'm generous, and assume say, an average of 3m thickness, (which is VERY generous), we are talking about less than 20% of what has been lost this season already (PIOMAS figures).

It's not a bastion.  It's barely a cushion.  At best, averaged out, it's about 4 weeks of melt.  That's how thin a margin the Arctic pack's survival hinges on.

So back to my point... even if you are correct about quantity, at this stage in the evolution of the Arctic, it is weather, not ice volume which will determine any given year if we can avoid a BoE. 

That's been true pretty much since 2012.  Many of us have been holding our breath every year since 2012 in fear of a BoE.  So far, we've lucked out.  Increasingly, the deck is being stacked against us.

Some years ago, during one or another poll, I indicated that I thought there wouldn't be a BoE until sometime after 2029, and probably not before 2050.  At this point, I'll be surprised if we make it to 2029 *without* a BoE.  MYI won't help prevent it.

Weather will be the determinant of the pack's survival, not the existing ice.
Very well put, jdallen. Excellent summary. And i indeed join you about being very massively surprised if we'd see no BoE before 2029.

As for this year, as some posters mentioned above, we have very warm SSTs in the Arctic. I don't even exclude a possibility for a late-season GAC doing much damage in a week or two. Not likely, of course, but if it happens - resulting further ice loss may be easily able to drop 2020 well below 2012.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6113 on: September 14, 2020, 01:03:06 PM »
Today's images and animation.
We now have open water present north of 85N on sections of the pack facing the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. Southerly winds are forecast for the Laptev region throughout 7 days on the GFS...
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6114 on: September 14, 2020, 01:31:44 PM »
With the Laptev/ESS edge dropping in concentration steadily over the last 4 days, while simultaneously having the ice edge push north, I wonder if the warmer waters are getting pushed under the remaining ice due to the persistence of the southerly winds there?
If this had been 3 weeks back, I'd expect large parts with low concentration to melt out by now. No persistent cold temperatures are forecast in this region, and southerlies look like persisting, so I'm curious to see how things pan out.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Shared Humanity

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6115 on: September 14, 2020, 02:11:27 PM »
Today's images and animation.
We now have open water present north of 85N on sections of the pack facing the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. Southerly winds are forecast for the Laptev region throughout 7 days on the GFS...

We may be very near minimum but, based on that 1st image, there is still a lot of melt occurring on the ice near the Laptev. That low energy low will be moving through this area of the CAB. I would expect this melt to continue.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6116 on: September 14, 2020, 02:55:59 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

NotaDenier

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6117 on: September 14, 2020, 04:23:32 PM »
The scorpions tail seems to keep moving toward the coast. If this ice survives and comes closer to the coast it may become land fast and be guaranteed to melt next year. Meaning even more of the Beaufort will be first year ice next summer.

It’ll be interesting to watch HYCOM this winter and see where the winds push the ice.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 520
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6118 on: September 14, 2020, 08:20:39 PM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick
It’s more resilient than FYI under a meter.
<mass snippage>

Weather will be the determinant of the pack's survival, not the existing ice.
<snip>

As for this year, as some posters mentioned above, we have very warm SSTs in the Arctic. I don't even exclude a possibility for a late-season GAC doing much damage in a week or two. Not likely, of course, but if it happens - resulting further ice loss may be easily able to drop 2020 well below 2012.
I expect a "late" minimum, but mostly because the metrics will be stepping back and forth around the current value, with net losses taking it down perhaps another 50k or so at most.

For a storm to affect that significantly it would need to be very intense, advect a great deal of heat with it, and very specifically target the weakest parts of the current pack.  That's a lot of qualifiers which as you suggest, make it unlikely.
This space for Rent.

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6119 on: September 14, 2020, 09:08:43 PM »
I think we have to be careful when we talk about tipping points too prematurity, people thought the Bering sea won't freeze over like it has done in the past because of 2 years of record low extents there or the ice ever reaching Svalbard again which of course has happened.

You do feel though we are going to see some exceptional conditions on the Siberian side of the basin in the next couple of months, extent is bound to be record lows, snow cover could well be at record low levels also seeing as you said, there is no cooling off there at all. The jet stream is so far north and maybe the warm SSTS and air is playing a role in that?

I agree with you that the term 'tipping point' should not just be thrown around, I do have a sneaking suspicion that the longer all of the peripheral seas/oceans remain the more they will mix and breakdown the Halocline layer at a rapid pace.

The continual losses on the Atlantic front have been impressive. And while 2020 won't beat 2012, this year was certainly an interesting one to follow. The fact that the Beaufort melted out as much as it did, along with the Bering Sea, surprises me most. Those areas went into the season in a somewhat 'recovered' form, but now need to rebuild all over. I will be hyper interested in waiting to see how long it takes to refreeze in a lot of areas. Moreover, I think next year will be another record Greenland Bite. I think the amount of open water this year will have some pronounced shoaling effects and I'm just not sure if that region will ever act the same now that the landfast ice seasonal.
pls!

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1393
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 601
  • Likes Given: 460
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6120 on: September 15, 2020, 02:04:26 AM »
Gerontocrat's stats say 99.8% of the melt season is over , today is the last day of an average melt season . Already some have ceased to update their stats as others head for the 'real' excitement of an election . Putting this season to bed so early may turn out to be a mistake .
   This is not an average melt season . It has been one of record breaking warmth . The ice , as Polarstern bears witness , is in a mobile , weak state . The damage done by the depression N. of the CAA was remarkable . As BFTV has remarked above , and A-team elsewhere , ice retreats with little resistance N. of Laptev ; and warm winds continue in the coming days
  Warm water , wind and waves are in wait , and will be for another week or two .  If a real storm enters the basin and stays a few days , volume and area could come crashing down  , extent may too . b.c.

   warming up for winter ? http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png
   

 
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 02:12:22 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6121 on: September 15, 2020, 02:25:55 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 269
  • Likes Given: 416
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6122 on: September 15, 2020, 02:45:54 AM »
Yesterday's and today's Worldview allowed a peek through the clouds north of the Nares and Greenland.   In the portions that one can see, the ice still seems to be in a wretched, rubbly condition, mostly well-separated floes, as one approaches the pole.  Then the clouds kick in completely.

Beautiful low sun shadows from the bands of cloud on the ice btw.

Images tweaked for contrast on Photoshop, the Sept 14 image a little more than Sept 13 image
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 02:51:50 AM by Pagophilus »
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 269
  • Likes Given: 416
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6123 on: September 15, 2020, 02:57:38 AM »
I do have a sneaking suspicion that the longer all of the peripheral seas/oceans remain the more they will mix and breakdown the Halocline layer at a rapid pace.

I think this is an important point.  Add to that the warmer seas, exposed for longer, are going to evaporate more and for longer at their surfaces, making the surface waters saltier, further weakening the halocline.  Plus saltier water is 'harder' to freeze.  I have no idea of the relative magnitude of these effects, but there are many such effects operating against the ice, it seems.  As the Scots say, "many a mickle makes a muckle".
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2063
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 991
  • Likes Given: 721
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6124 on: September 15, 2020, 05:56:03 AM »
It is impressive that we are still losing ice within the 85°N parallel.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

UCMiami

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 127
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 90
  • Likes Given: 108
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6125 on: September 15, 2020, 06:01:29 AM »
The glimpses through openings in clouds look as if there is still significant melting on the ice edges in the ESS bulge, the edge of the Beaufort and on the remaining tail. The fairly consistent winds seem to be stirring up some ocean heat to cause this as while there is some 'warm air' still reaching the ice it is not warm enought to do any damage I would think (except to prevent refreeze.)

Also of interest to me - there has been almost no export of ice from the Cab/Beaufort into the CAA channels - the ones that were open remain open. And while there was a small amount of ice export into the Nares it was really minor compared to other years.

On the plus side for the ice - it appears to me that some of the East Greenland fjords and coastal areas may have had some new ice formed - the center of Greenland is frigid and the winds flowing off it are cold.

I doubt there is much more to the melt season, but I wouldn't be surprised if we spent a week or so more with small losses around a few small gains in extent. This procession of small storms seems to be keeping things active.

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 746
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 665
  • Likes Given: 387
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6126 on: September 15, 2020, 06:04:08 AM »
September 10-14.

2019.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2063
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 991
  • Likes Given: 721
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6127 on: September 15, 2020, 06:15:19 AM »
September 10-14.

2019.

It seems that it is in CAA where the ASI increased.
I really like your gif's, Aluminium.  :)
Thanks!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2306
  • Likes Given: 1937
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6128 on: September 15, 2020, 06:37:06 AM »
The longer this sloshing around goes on, the worse it is. While new thin ice is being added in the Lincoln Sea and in the heart of the pack (and the CAA?), counterbalancing headline losses and halting the official melting season, volume and future resilience could still be going down. The Beaufort arm is a last stand of what used to be MYI, every day leaves a little less of it for next year. The same may be happening on the Atlantic/Siberian front. And now some export has started again into the Greenland Sea, of what is quite possibly ex-MYI as well.
The good news is that the deep cold is now spreading around the central basin, hopefully making a true end to melting.

philiponfire

  • New ice
  • Posts: 56
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6129 on: September 15, 2020, 07:43:02 AM »
I think the profound thing here is that we have now had two low, almost record breaking minimums in a row. In recent history we have had one low year about every 5 or 6 years. This is different!

aslan

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 189
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6130 on: September 15, 2020, 08:39:22 AM »
As a testimony of the disruption ongoing on the Atlantic front, the extraordinary heatwave is still ongoing for the Russian islands of the Barents and Kara. For weather stations with such a long record, this is crazy. Up to the 15th of Septembrer, the mean of temperature (the mean...) is above the old monthly record of September. And it is raining, raining, raining.
For Ostrov Vize, with the exception of the 10th, every day since the 14th of August is a record, and the old monthly record of 2015 has been broken twelve days as of now... The month of September is for the moment the warmest month ever recorded, ahead of August 2020  http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069
For Ostrov Golomjanjy, every day of September has been a record, and the old monthly record of 2016 has been broken eleven times. http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20087

romett1

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6131 on: September 15, 2020, 11:38:54 AM »
It is impressive that we are still losing ice within the 85°N parallel.
Yep - difference between Sept 14 and Sept 9.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6132 on: September 15, 2020, 11:39:58 AM »
Today's images an animation.
Clear gains in the Beaufort and CAA outweighing losses along the Kara and Laptev facing ice edges.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Phil42

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 88
  • Likes Given: 708
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6133 on: September 15, 2020, 11:59:22 AM »
I think especially at this point in time where the melting season turns to the freezing season your graphic is incredibly useful BFTV. Because usually there is freezing and melting at the same time in different regions which the raw extent number can't describe. But your graphic/animation gives a clear overview where it is happening. Thank you for making them, especially now.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 02:04:58 PM by Phil42 »

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6134 on: September 15, 2020, 12:49:44 PM »
It seems that it is in CAA where the ASI increased.

The first appearance of some "new ice" on the Canadian Ice Service charts:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/09/facts-about-the-arctic-in-september-2020/#Sep-15
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6135 on: September 15, 2020, 02:50:12 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

grixm

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 337
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 202
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6136 on: September 15, 2020, 03:09:27 PM »
New yearly minimum for daily area, it looks like.


Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6137 on: September 15, 2020, 03:45:29 PM »
I think the profound thing here is that we have now had two low, almost record breaking minimums in a row. In recent history we have had one low year about every 5 or 6 years. This is different!

I see your point but by September we were no where near the record low but I think the facts you can take from the 2 melting seasons is that extent has been near record lows for most of the summer, this tells us what we already know is the ice is melting away faster and faster and one day the record will be broken.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2063
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 991
  • Likes Given: 721
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6138 on: September 15, 2020, 04:26:13 PM »
I think the profound thing here is that we have now had two low, almost record breaking minimums in a row. In recent history we have had one low year about every 5 or 6 years. This is different!

In my perception, that is not completely true. 2005 was a terrible year, compared with the previous years. And until the middle of July, the year 2006 seem to be worst than 2005. At September it did not happened, but September 2006 was worse than any previous year, except for 2005. Then we have the huge drop of 2007. So, three bad years in a row.

On the other hand, Bremen said that on daily basis, 2011 broke the 2007 record. 2011 start to refreeze early, so on NSIDC average, September 2011 was not that bad. But it was a bad year if you look it in detail. And then it came 2012.

Finally, 2016 was a bad year in extent and 2017 was an awfully bad year in volume until July.

My perception is that we have just been lucky in summer weather in years like 2006, 2011 and 2017. But the tendency is the tendency and we are going to have new records and a BOE, unless something unexpected happens, like we have a huge amount of fresh water that really slows the AMOC.

So 2019 and 2020 are two bad years in a row, but it happened before.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 09:05:34 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2306
  • Likes Given: 1937
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6139 on: September 15, 2020, 05:52:01 PM »
Odd things going on on the Central Arctic Sea....
It's not odd that concentration is going up, as it does every year. Refreeze has begun a few days ago in several regions in the heart of the pack, nearly eliminating surrounded open water pixels. The odd thing is that extent - and even area - are still shrinking despite this, due to melting at the edges. Not for long, but already an oddity.

wdmn

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 550
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 228
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6140 on: September 15, 2020, 06:40:51 PM »
Odd things going on on the Central Arctic Sea....
It's not odd that concentration is going up, as it does every year. Refreeze has begun a few days ago in several regions in the heart of the pack, nearly eliminating surrounded open water pixels. The odd thing is that extent - and even area - are still shrinking despite this, due to melting at the edges. Not for long, but already an oddity.

This is a bit of a lazy post because I don't have the tools to do the analysis at the moment. But I wonder if this is partially to do with the ice edge being over deep water because of the low extent, but also the relative "compactness" of the ice pack compared to say 2016, where low concentration ice was scattered over shallower waters. At this time of year, the refreeze can start at higher air temperatures than would otherwise be required to make ice over open water, because of adjacent ice, but over deep water (especially water that has high SSTAs) even this process would be slowed somewhat... i.e hypothesis: air temperatures will have to fall lower than usual before ice can begin growing on the ice edge, due to much of the ice edge being over unusually deep waters.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 08:24:50 PM by wdmn »

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 337
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6141 on: September 15, 2020, 09:44:58 PM »
The +80N temperature dropped to -5 C then climbed back up to -2 C. The Arctic Average 2m Anomaly is also high +2.4 C.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:19:32 PM by glennbuck »

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2449
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1168
  • Likes Given: 1017
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6142 on: September 15, 2020, 10:07:05 PM »
The 80N is just temperature not anomaly. Shows the effect of some missing ice in the range.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2731
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1226
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6143 on: September 15, 2020, 11:32:08 PM »
relative "compactness" of the ice pack compared to say 2016
Laptev/atl ice edge has been subjected to a few weeks of southerly wind so yes, relatively compact compared to 2016 and at the same time a short cyclone leaves the pack riddled with leads north of CAA while the Greenland gap slowly recovers (a large polynya is visible today at 85.2N-10)
https://go.nasa.gov/2Rycjog  (light contrast enhancement)

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6144 on: September 16, 2020, 01:36:13 AM »
Odd things going on on the Central Arctic Sea....
It's not odd that concentration is going up, as it does every year. Refreeze has begun a few days ago in several regions in the heart of the pack, nearly eliminating surrounded open water pixels. The odd thing is that extent - and even area - are still shrinking despite this, due to melting at the edges. Not for long, but already an oddity.

It's odd but when you look at the weather patterns it does make sence. Constant southerly winds will melt/compact the ice but no doubt thinness and SSTS could very well be playing a role also. As soon as the winds turns, the ice moves in the opposite direction as has been happening in the last 2 days on the ice to the north of Svalbard. Got a feeling with the winds turning southerly again it may move back northwards again.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6145 on: September 16, 2020, 02:15:16 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 863
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 480
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6146 on: September 16, 2020, 03:01:54 AM »
It's not just a SST thing in the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. The heat goes town to 30m or more. Compare the 30 m Arctic temperatures of this year with 2019 on Mercator ocean and you will see that there's much more ocean heat on the Atlantic side this year than last. On the other hand, there's less heat on the Pacific side. Over both sides, there's much more heat this year, but there is almost always a see saw effect in the Arctic between the Atlantic and Pacific.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 520
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6147 on: September 16, 2020, 04:07:53 AM »
It's not just a SST thing in the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. The heat goes town to 30m or more. Compare the 30 m Arctic temperatures of this year with 2019 on Mercator ocean and you will see that there's much more ocean heat on the Atlantic side this year than last. On the other hand, there's less heat on the Pacific side. Over both sides, there's much more heat this year, but there is almost always a see saw effect in the Arctic between the Atlantic and Pacific.
I think what is happening on the Atlantic side is far more dangerous.

It translates into later refreeze, thinner ice at max volume in March/April, and faster melt out, much as we saw this season.

The open water and heat will also be magnets for storm systems coming up from along the eastern seaboard of NAM.  And considering all the damn hurricanes, tropical storms and depressions that are active, that threatens to seriously slow down the freezing season, much as it did in 2016.

Only we're a lot worse off than we were in 2016 I think, in terms of heat balance.
This space for Rent.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1600
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6148 on: September 16, 2020, 05:03:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

seaice.de

  • New ice
  • Posts: 90
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6149 on: September 16, 2020, 06:27:37 PM »
AMSR2: Some recent days of 2020 compared to 2012